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Thursday, August 04, 2016

Mailvox: it's just the media narrative

MJ is suspicious about the so-called "Trump Implosion" and rightfully so:
With all of the talk I've been seeing over the past week in regards to the mainstream news of Trump "imploding", is it just me, or are the various factions of the diminishing hordes of establishment supporters getting more and more outlandish in their barbs against the campaign? How much longer will these types continue to deny the inevitable truth before they have to pivot to attempt to save their ignorant asses?

To wit:

- Yes, Trump has a concern about taking things personally. I see that more as a positive than a negative. The current occupant of the Office has too much of an "I don't give a damn" attitude, and I think that's part of the issue we're running into in terms of leadership.

- The whole Khan issue. The reason it hasn't gone away isn't because Trump is keeping on it, it's that the establishment handlers keep thrusting Khan back out into the spotlight to force Trump to respond. I heard a piece of an interview between Khan and Anderson Cooper from the other day, and it was clear to me that the man had no clue what he was talking about in terms of his constitutional claims. I literally felt dumber after hearing the man speak, it was that bad. The only reason Khan is even remotely relevant is that his son died in action during OIF, and that was an action supported by the D nominee, not Trump. I personally find it repulsive that they would use that status for such actions (it's not surprising to me, however).

- The enthusiasm gap. Last weekend, there was supposedly a big bus trip through Pennsylvania and Ohio for the D ticket. It was so huge that they had to pay people to show up in western PA, and they ended up canceling the appearance in Cleveland, both cases due to lack of interest. Meanwhile, Trump and his campaign were upset that fire marshals were capping entry to venues far below the posted capacity limits. And where he's not being capped, they're turning people away. It's night and day in terms of what is being reported by the establishment versus what the ground truth is.

I'm registered as unaffiliated where I live. I chose to be unaffiliated because the two-party system here is horribly, irrevocably broken. I understand that a lot of this traffic is meant for me to influence me into supporting the D nominee. I hate to say it, but I'm rather insulted by this attitude and approach. It's not working. There's nothing there for the D nominee to offer, and the choice of running mate is also a personal affront to me as an active, practicing Roman Catholic.

I will be honest, I'm not 100% behind Trump, but it's not for any reason from the establishment. There is a legitimate unknown with him, and that's probably due more to my healthy skepticism of someone who is naturally outside the overall process. This is another of those once in a generation occurrences where the truth is so obvious that one would have to be a complete idiot to ignore it.

The conclusion I'm running into is this: Trump is the catalyst for a completely new paradigm in both American and international politics, something that we sort of started to see with the Brexit vote, even though that was focused on the UK. The opportunity his election presents is huge in terms of how things can at least attempt to rectify themselves, and that's what gives me hope.

I agree with the consensus that the Trumpslide is coming, especially since there's still 95 days of campaigning to go, including 3 debates.
My take: everyone needs to relax about the "Trump implosion" and the purported Republican revolt. The media is full of SJWs. And what do SJWs do? Exactly!
This is what a full-fledged feeding frenzy looks like.

With Donald Trump facing the roughest stretch of his candidacy, the media have moved from questioning his sanity to depicting a campaign in disarray and top Republicans still wondering whether they can dump the nominee.

That won’t happen, of course, but it’s an indication of the toxic nature of the coverage and the flood of anti-Trump leaks now washing across the media landscape.

There’s a natural piling-on effect when campaigns go off the rails: The polls dip, the critics step up their rhetoric, staffers start pointing fingers, and the press keeps the vicious cycle going.

But I’ve never seen anything like this.

Things reached the point yesterday morning that CNBC’s John Harwood tweeted: “Longtime ally of Paul Manafort, Trump's campaign manager: 'Manafort not challenging Trump anymore. Mailing it in. Staff suicidal.'"

And there was this from CNN: “A source tells @DanaBashCNN that some Trump campaign staff are frustrated w/ candidate lately, ‘feel like they are wasting their time.’"

I am told by knowledgeable campaign sources that Manafort is not going anywhere and believes that Trump will be getting back on message.

I am further told that reports of a planned “intervention” with the candidate, led by Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani, are false.

And the sources also say that, contrary to media reports, party chairman Reince Priebus is not furious with Trump, though he is disappointed with the nominee’s refusal to endorse Paul Ryan.
The Khan/Implosion narrative nothing more than the Democratic hasbara that we've been seeing on this blog and others, writ large. As for the polls, I remind you of my previous assessment: they don't mean ANYTHING until 30 days after the end of the second convention.

If there is no discernible Trump trend by then, it MIGHT be time to start considering the possibility of a Hillary win. In the meantime, pay no attention to the media's attempt to establish a false narrative. Remember, they are trying to shape reality, they are not honestly reporting it.

Let's look at this rationally. If the media was genuinely convinced that Hillary Clinton was going to win, do you really think they would engage in this sort of mass narrative-shaping instead of triumphantly slinging insults at Republicans while victory-dancing?

As to how long it will be before they pivot, I would say one week after the polls start showing Trump within striking distance of Hillary again. Which should be in about one month.

UPDATE: from the comments: "Ricky Vaughn 99 has suggested for months that it all starts with one push from Labor Day. He has said Trump does pushes and retreats in waves."

I have noticed this too. Remember there were similar lulls around the time Michelle Fields was raped, murdered, and dismembered at a Trump rally and again after the Ohio loss cost Trump the Republican nomination.

As an experienced developer, Trump understands that you can't mindlessly push all the time. You need to take the time to reload, gather your strength, and recover before launching another offensive. I assumed that's what he's been doing since the end of the Republican nomination.

Labels: ,

192 Comments:

Anonymous Mr. Rational August 04, 2016 1:06 PM  

If the media was genuinely convinced that Hillary Clinton was going to win, do you really think they would engage in this sort of mass narrative-shaping
It's a whole lot easier to understand this once you grasp that it's not reporting, it's Izvestia.

OpenID basementhomebrewer August 04, 2016 1:08 PM  

Interesting how well these tactics work even though most of us have seen them first hand. Everyone recall the media blitz last year on Sad/Rabid puppies being racist/bigots etc. All the stories looked the same and spun the same story. This is the same thing only with bigger outlets involved because the stakes are higher.

Blogger dc.sunsets August 04, 2016 1:08 PM  

It's fascinating that the Trump Phenomenon has driven the coffin nails of news media credibility.

I would not now believe any thing published by a news media organ, to the level of them claiming the sky is blue.

ABCNNBCBS et.al. will never recover from their collective seppuku over Trump.

Anonymous Faceless August 04, 2016 1:09 PM  

Ricky Vaughn 99 has suggested for months that it all starts with one push from Labor Day. He has said Trump does pushes and retreats in waves.

This theory would coincide with "the disastrous two weeks" in the primary, after Super Tuesday, when there was the Ted Cruz resurgence.

He's doing five waves; he advances on the odd ones and retreats on the even ones; we're in wave four.

Anonymous Bob Roxx August 04, 2016 1:09 PM  

News from CNN (Copenhagen-interpretation news network)

Einstein says he would date and marry his cousin (he did)

Einstein flip-flops on cosmological constant

Einstein wrong on "spooky action at a distance"

Einstein likes women and is a known napper.

Clearly, Einstein was a mentally unfit moron and wrong for America

Blogger Robert Divinity August 04, 2016 1:10 PM  

Much of this is panic-portrayed-as-triumph due to Trump basically matching Clinton in campaign contributions last month. Him came almost exclusively from small donors, too, which would indicate he'll hold his own. Luegenpresse wants to frighten off those small donations. Good luck with that.

Blogger SemiSpook37 August 04, 2016 1:12 PM  

If anything, this is all tiring. Trying to stay positive and tune things out, but at some point, either someone needs a punch in the face or some sort of demeaning action taken towards them, because it's starting to get REALLY embarrassing out there.

Anonymous #8601 August 04, 2016 1:12 PM  

The payout for a Trump win has jumped from +175 to +275. I doubled up at +175 (oops) but very tempted to add a little more at +275, which is like a gift.

Thank you, mainstream media.

Blogger MadMax 1861 August 04, 2016 1:12 PM  

Faceless, I hope you're right. I can't bear the thought of Hillary as POTUS.

Blogger SemiSpook37 August 04, 2016 1:16 PM  

dc.sunsets wrote:ABCNNBCBS et.al. will never recover from their collective seppuku over Trump.

This is the reason why the man holding the katana holds all of the power in that action. Sure, he could take a swipe and prevent the dishonor of taking your own life from being horrible, but where's the fun in that?

Yeah, so it was News Corp. that made the big deal about the post DNC "bump". Between that and the onslaught with Melania in the Post, it seems like they're trying way too hard, doesn't it?

OpenID b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440 August 04, 2016 1:18 PM  

If Trump were in trouble, and Hillary coasting to victory there would have been no reason for the concerted effort to destroy Jill Stein.

Anonymous wEz August 04, 2016 1:21 PM  

I wish I had your optimism Vox, I really do. I'm with dh though.
The US is a sinking ship, that possibly has already sunk politically.
Blacks 90% dem, Latinos 65% dem and a growing demographic thanks to lax laws and birthright citizenship rearing it's ugly head. Single white women 80% dem. Millenials 60+% dem, and what do you have left?? 30+ in age white males and married women..thats it. So unless there is an absolute tidal wave of whites coming over to vote for Trump at record rates, I just don't see the math. God I home I'm wrong thoug, as the lizard queen and her next supreme court justice (for their sc monopoly) will destroy any last vestige of this once great country.

Blogger dc.sunsets August 04, 2016 1:23 PM  

I don't get it.

Who among Trump's supporters is so stupid that they get their assessment of the campaign from Tokyo Rose?

If you insist on watching, listening or reading any aspect of the MSM (including Fox), just invert what they tell you.

By this metric, we will all go to the polls in November and ELECT TRUMP in a landslide.

Blogger Undocumented Pharmacist August 04, 2016 1:25 PM  

ABCNNBCBS and PBS - My wife still watches the evening news. If I happen to walk through the room when its on I just briefly look at her at say, "They're lying to you, you know." Says she's gonna vote Trump, but I don't trust her to. Luckily she works 12 hour shifts on Tuesdays and is too lazy to get up early to go vote.

Blogger Dean Esmay August 04, 2016 1:25 PM  

This is the same media narrative we heard multiple times when he couldn't possibly win the nomination.

Anonymous #3254 August 04, 2016 1:28 PM  

This is a piling-on like I have never seen. I think it's because Trump hasn't caved like all the good little puppy republicans before him.

We'll see if the Mega-Alpha can not only withstand but take down Hag Hillary and her media allies' relentless ankle-biting. A lesser man would fold (McCain, Romney). Hang in there, Trump.

Blogger Timmy3 August 04, 2016 1:28 PM  

Two groups that should be in Trump's side, military/veterans and Republicans. The high profile Republican defections isn't helping since party unification should be what matters. Trump might not need Cruz's support, but he needs Paul Ryan who has already endorsed him. Meg Whitman needed to be silent. Trump lit a match that suggests can't be reliable. Surely, it's a new Republican Party, but this change is way too fast for even people that wants change.

Blogger praetorian August 04, 2016 1:28 PM  

(kek)

I'm so unplugged from the MSM at this point that I wasn't even aware there was a Trump is Stumped narrative push.

Damn it feels good to be an autiste...

(Trigger warning: cruz campaign made the video above. And it's funny.)

Blogger Ostar August 04, 2016 1:28 PM  

Possibly Trump was initially secretly supported by the Democrats to win the nomination, because they realized that Hillary was such a weak candidate that even JEB! could have defeated her. Trump - ha! No one they knew would vote for HIM!

BUT - too late, they realized that Trump actually could win because the non-elites support him. So panic time, as the uni-ruling party now unites and throws everything at him, which may only increase his support among the actual voting people.

Blogger dh August 04, 2016 1:32 PM  

Excellent, more hard predictions to test.

> Let's look at this rationally. If the media was genuinely convinced that Hillary Clinton was going to win, do you really think they would engage in this sort of mass narrative-shaping instead of triumphantly slinging insults at Republicans while victory-dancing?

There is a simpler explanation. Delivering a Pres. Hillary Clinton mandate. The Senate may be in play, depending on how some primaries go. If Mr. Trump is weak enough, and the media throws in a hand, the House could be in play.

A President Clinton 51 seats in the Senate, and a +5-10 seat majority in the House can do a lot.

Blogger YIH August 04, 2016 1:37 PM  

I don't think Trump is ''imploding''. The Lizard Queen did get a post convention 'bounce' however, current RCP average: Wicked Witch of the West +5.8 all favoring from +1 to +10.
For those predicting a Trump slam dunk however, I've been saying demographics matter and this map shows why:
Trump will have to take all the red, lt. red, and all (or nearly all) of the lt. blue to win. If he loses any of FL, NC or OH, the evil queen is coronated - game over.
That, of course, is the current, YMMV.

Blogger praetorian August 04, 2016 1:38 PM  

There is a simpler explanation. Delivering a Pres. Hillary Clinton mandate. The Senate may be in play, depending on how some primaries go. If Mr. Trump is weak enough, and the media throws in a hand, the House could be in play.

THE BLACK PILLLLLL...

Blogger horsewithnonick August 04, 2016 1:39 PM  

This is the same media cabal that has been caught red-handed sabotaging the Sanders campaign in collusion w/Hillary's managers - does anyone think that with Bernie safely gelded they are NOW going to become impartial and incorruptible truth-tellers? Preposterous!

Blogger dh August 04, 2016 1:40 PM  

> in age white males and married women..

It's more bad news with married women. Gov. Romney, who lost, pulled 53% of married women against Pres. Obama in 2012. The last time this was polled back in April, with cross-tabs released, Mr. Trump was on track to pull about 33% of married women (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-04-11/trump-fares-poorly-with-married-women-he-d-need-to-win-bloomberg-poll). I would presume he's doing better than that now, but it needs to be much closer to 60% for a victory.

Anonymous #ImWithHer August 04, 2016 1:41 PM  

Your prediction assumes your candidate learns to SHUT UP!! Fallacy #1: No one is FORCING Trump to respond to anything. Yes Khan is being paraded around to irritate him but that's because everyone knows that it actually does irritate him. So yes it is Trump's fault that the Khans remain relevant. He needs to stop responding to everything they say.

Fallacy #2: Media is CREATING a false narrative. The media is doing the same as it's always done with Trump: repeating what HE says. If that is now causing him problems, then whose fault is that?

You can finger point all you want but Trump's appeal is limited to non-college whites in rural areas. If anyone here really believes that college-educated whites in urban and ex-urban areas are voting for Trump, you're delusional. He is not flipping NY or NJ ever. CA is a pipe dream and a half. FL is moving out of reach as Latinos continue their voter registration efforts. I do give him a chance in PA and OH.

Demographics are king here and they work against Trump. Plus now that the Republicans are starting to focus on ticket splitting to protect down ticket Republicans, he has to fight on two fronts: HRC and his "own" party.

My ultimate prediction is a Trump loss but a legitimate new political party. And even though I don't agree with anything you want, I think a third political party is a good thing because for too long it's only been a choice between two sides of the same coin.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr August 04, 2016 1:43 PM  

I'll confess to being nervous. Trump appears to lack focus, is too easily distracted.

He needs to be concentrating on two things:

1. Hillary Clinton is untrustworthy, incompetent, and part of the Wall Street/K Street Establishment that has robbed the average American.

2. Donald Trump is not an easily distracted incompetent.

The first is easy. He's flubbing the second.

Having said that, the Olympics start tomorrow night. Trump can lay low, recharge, get focused. The come out swinging and win.

Because the alternative is too damned horrific to think about. I'm old enough to remember when Sick Willie Clinton was President - and those were eight long years of scandal and despair.

Blogger Joshua_D August 04, 2016 1:48 PM  

Remember there were similar lulls around the time Michelle Fields was raped, murdered, and dismembered at a Trump rally and again after the Ohio loss cost Trump the Republican nomination.

I literally LOLed.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 04, 2016 1:48 PM  

I don't see the Khan thing working out for the Ds, sure it might excite the sadistic virtue signalers glued to Kos or MSNBC but the more America sees of him the less there is to like. Think how depressing he is to the average D mope, son dead in the glorious war brought to you by corporate Whore Hillary, and while he is being feted for being a muslim gold star lawyer your own little D voting grouplet falls off the political radar.

Anonymous ODG August 04, 2016 1:49 PM  

I'm the LAST person who can be counted on for an accurate prediction, but regarding married women, this is my guess:
They still have time to deny reality and say "well, Trump is kinda mean...".
As soon as reality comes calling in late October, they'll realize he's the only option, and the tide will turn.

Blogger Josh August 04, 2016 1:50 PM  

The trump train is fine

Blogger VD August 04, 2016 1:51 PM  

Your prediction assumes your candidate learns to SHUT UP!! Fallacy #1: No one is FORCING Trump to respond to anything. Yes Khan is being paraded around to irritate him but that's because everyone knows that it actually does irritate him. So yes it is Trump's fault that the Khans remain relevant. He needs to stop responding to everything they say.

That's what everyone said during the Republican nomination too. Khan doesn't irritate Trump, Khan is a fraud whom the Democrats will have to hide soon. The idea that being openly anti-Muslim and anti-PC is going to hurt Trump in this election is amusing.

The first is easy. He's flubbing the second.

No, he's not. All of you armchair strategists who think that the art of winning involves avoiding criticism from your enemies really need to stop talking. You're embarrassing yourselves. Jeb Bush was your ideal candidate and look where that got him.

Blogger Nick S August 04, 2016 1:52 PM  

#ImWithHer wrote:Your prediction assumes your candidate learns to SHUT UP!!

You're not paying attention. God is voting for Trump.

Anonymous Baltar August 04, 2016 1:52 PM  

Trump is down 10% points in the new Fox News poll because he's only getting 63% of Republican voters. It appears that the media has been successful in making a vote for Trump socially unacceptable to the college-educated crowd -- he's just getting hammered in the Philly 'burbs (from a PA poll).

Still time to go and the reported implosion of the campaign is a lie (even according to lefty Howard Kurt), but if the election was today, Trump would lose badly. Hillary has to hope reality doesn't slip through the media distortion field, though.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr August 04, 2016 1:53 PM  

Vox, I hate to break it to you, but Jeb was NEVER my ideal candidate. Not even in my top 3.

Blogger Orville August 04, 2016 1:54 PM  

All the little Bushies are voting for Hillary, cause Donald!

And as Zerohedge has figured out what we already knew, there really is only one bi-factional party.

Best Tools For Men

Blogger YIH August 04, 2016 1:57 PM  

One thing Trump is going to have a problem with, like it or not, the NFL. By default, they are pro-Hillary because of their 30-year old grudge against Trump.
Granted, they will officially proclaim that the league is 'non-partisan' but whatever they can quietly do to tip the scales in her favor, be assured they will.
That's why they didn't object to the debate scheduling opposite some decent prime-time matchups, when it could have been easily arranged to avoid the conflict.

Anonymous The OASF August 04, 2016 1:59 PM  

"As an experienced developer, Trump understands that you can't mindlessly push all the time. You need to take the time to reload, gather your strength, and recover before launching another offensive. I assumed that's what he's been doing since the end of the Republican nomination."

I actually believe it to be more like intellectual jujitsu. Notice that the Khan thing is already backfiring on the DNC with the worst yet to come.

The mainstream polls are rigged to the gills, and yet Hillary still barely commands a lead according to their numbers. How are the mainstream pollsters rigging it, you may ask? Simply put, they "tweak" the polls by registering 100 percent of the undecided/independent respondents in camp Hillary, where as she may, at most, get about 40 percent of those votes per the way events are realistically going.

More evidence of the Trumpslide hearkens. If Paul Ryan is victimized by in the primary next Tuesday via a PaulNehlenslide, Ryan's poll rigging, censoring, and vote stealing notwithstanding, expect to see a huge surge for Trump that can't be denied.

Blogger Lanrick August 04, 2016 1:59 PM  

I wonder how much of a difference there is between the reported poll numbers and actual support. Can imagine a lot of Trump supporters are not going to admit to a pollster they support him, due to the fact that the lame stream media has hammered on the ignorance of Trump supporters.

Anonymous 360 August 04, 2016 2:00 PM  

As an experienced developer, Trump understands that you can't mindlessly push all the time. You need to take the time to reload, gather your strength, and recover before launching another offensive. I assumed that's what he's been doing since the end of the Republican nomination.

Or he is flying by the seat of his pants and doesn't know what the hell he is doing.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr August 04, 2016 2:02 PM  

I'd also encourage everybody who can afford it to donate. Money is ammo in a campaign.

Anonymous #8601 August 04, 2016 2:10 PM  

Trump has had numerous setbacks during this campaign, many of which were more serious than Crazy Khan. He has always emerged stronger in the end. This time will be no different.

"Forest for the trees, gentlemen. Forest for the trees." - Jack Reacher

Blogger Chiva August 04, 2016 2:11 PM  

"Or he is flying by the seat of his pants and doesn't know what the hell he is doing."

I would put more credence in that statement if Donald Trump was a life long politician.

Blogger tublecane August 04, 2016 2:15 PM  

@35-The funniest thing about Republican defections, Nevertrump, etc. is that anyone thinks we care what the likes of Dick Armitage or Brent Scowcroft think. As if! Money still matters, but not so much to Trump. Party leadership matters too, especially for getting out the vote. Because Democrats kick the hell out of the Stupid Party at that. But not these establishment empty suits. No one cares that you had a name tag in the Bush administration.

Anonymous BGKB August 04, 2016 2:15 PM  

Some leftists have been saying that TRUMP will send niggers back to Africa: Trump vs. Hillary Battle of the signs. Social Experiment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7R3BN4T6XMw

For those predicting a Trump slam dunk however, I've been saying demographics matter

Maybe we will get lucky and Russia will hack the food stamp EBT cards in November so every die verse city gets torn up.

I don't see the Khan thing working out for the Ds,

He already had to take down his law firms sharia supporting web site but https://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/running-the-big-khan-in-philly/

But let’s take Mr. Khan’s point at face value and suppose that he and his wife, and hence their son, would not have been in America under the original Trump concept. That would also mean we would not have had admitted the Afghan parents of the Orlando killer, the Pakistani parents of the San Bernardino killer (and his co-jihadist Pakistani bride), the Palestinian parents of the Fort Hood killer, the Chechen parents of the Boston bombing killers, and others less well known. So what is the fair tradeoff between the harm inflicted on America and the mourning families of dozens of victims by the jihadist progeny of these aliens, versus the good Captain Khan did that presumably would have been lost?

Blogger David Power August 04, 2016 2:17 PM  

@15 Dean Esmay

That's just what I was thinking.

He'll never run for President. X
He'll never get over 2%. X
He'll never submit his finances. X
He'll never get over 5%. X
He'll never win a debate. X
He'll never win in the East. X
He'll never get over 10%. X
He'll never win a delegate. X
He'll never win in the South. X
He'll never beat Christie. X
He'll never get over 20%. X
He'll never get over 100 delegates. X
He'll never win Evangelicals. X
He'll never get endorsed. X
He'll never win a Caucus. X
He'll never win in the North. X
He'll never beat Carson. X
He'll never get over 30%. X
He'll never get over 200 delegates. X
He'll never win with Latinos. X
He'll never win a Primary. X
He'll never win in the West. X
He'll never beat Kasich. X
He'll never get over 40%. X
He'll never get over 400 delegates. X
He'll never win with women. X
He'll never win 8 States. X
He'll never beat Jeb. X
He'll never get over 50%. X
He'll never get over 600 delegates. X
He'll never beat Rubio. X
He'll never get over 60%. X
He'll never get over 1000 delegates. X
He'll never beat Cruz. X
He'll never get the CandidacyX
He'll never beat Hillary.
He'll never build the wall.
He'll never win a second term.
He'll never Make America Great Again.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 04, 2016 2:18 PM  

God bless the Republicans for Hillary, surround her with the Ghouls of Wars past

But we do have to discredit them so the littlest Republicans cannot virtue signal to them without being shamed like no tomorrow

Thank God for Khanomania

Blogger Nick S August 04, 2016 2:18 PM  

#8601 wrote:Trump has had numerous setbacks during this campaign, many of which were more serious than Crazy Khan. He has always emerged stronger in the end. This time will be no different.

"Forest for the trees, gentlemen. Forest for the trees." - Jack Reacher


Neither luck nor skill can account for a man stepping in shit this often and coming up smelling like roses every time. I'm sticking with my providence theory.

Anonymous EH August 04, 2016 2:18 PM  

@12 wEz Non-whites really don't matter much in this election. Even a modest swing by whites toward Trump compared to Romney will win Trump the election.

Blacks are not going to be quite as enthusiastic about Hillary as they were about Obama. Their turnout is likely going to fall a few points from the 2/3 in 2012, and Trump will take more than 10% of the Black vote, compared to Romney's 7%. But let's say 90%D and 67% turnout for the Blacks anyway, which would be a high estimate. Let's also say the D's do as well a possible with Hispanics and Asians: 80%D, which is +8% and +13% respectively compared to 2012, and both manage 67% turnout though they had a sub-50% turnout in 2012.

The D's still lose in a landslide if Whites swing 8 or 9% toward Trump compared to Romney (67% college educated Whites, +8%; 70% other Whites, +9%) and manage the same 67% turnout as the other groups (-10% turnout for C.E.W., +10% for other whites). That modest set of guesses gives an Electoral College vote of 186D / 352R and a popular vote of 47.5% D / 50.8% R (+3.3%). With turnout at 2/3 across the board, Trump still wins with as little as 58% of the college-educated white vote while keeping everything else the same. See here if you want to explore different scenarios yourself.

[Google search isn't indexing voxday.blogspot.com fully. Searches on: " site:voxday.blogspot.com "EH August" OR "EH July" " don't find many of my posts in the past month. The site search in the upper left of the page does not work, either, for instance returning 1 result from years ago for "EV", but also for any search, apparently.]

Anonymous Crude August 04, 2016 2:19 PM  

I think Trump's screwing up right now, insofar as the popularity contest is concerned. I also think it doesn't mean a damn thing one way or the other because of how far out the election is. Practically no one is going to refuse to vote for Trump on the grounds that while they would have voted for him, his reaction to an angsty muslim was a bridge too far.

My own view is this: when it comes to the presidency, polls are basically a combination of loyalty pledges and protests at this stage. Saying 'if the election were held today...' makes no sense, because if the election were held today people would be viewing their own commitments in a whole different light. Today, the election is three months away. Which politician you like or dislike can be reactions to frivolous things like 'Trump said treated someone rudely!' or 'Hillary said something cold!' At least for people who don't think heavily about politics, which is a fair sum.

The closer you get to the election, the closer people start thinking in different terms like 'Which one of these two people do I actually want to -win-?' The same question gets framed a different way; right now it's 'Who do you think is acting like the bigger asshole/the nicer person?' + 'How many diehards do you have?'

I mention that because I think people take only a partly accurate lesson from historical elections. I don't think that Carter was polling higher than Reagan at one point, but lost to Reagan at another point, just because (maybe not even largely because) of what actions he and others took between those two points. It's also because they may as well have asked two different questions at two different times, even if they were worded exactly the same.

Blogger B.J. August 04, 2016 2:22 PM  

I suspect the media's constant refrain of "Everything is fine, Trump can't win," has less to do with hurting him (though that's certainly a goal) and more to do with shoring up the faithful on their own side. The Democratic party is hemorrhaging voters and they're desperate to hide it.

The same way that Wet-Noodle Romney lost because Republicans stayed home, so to will Hillary lose because Democrats just won't be able to bring themselves to the polls to vote for her. I predict a historic low voter turnout for democrats this year. The post-election analysis will be revealing in it's viciousness. The media blitz will be about how horrible democrat voters are for 'betraying' their party and not doing as they're told.

Blogger SirHamster August 04, 2016 2:23 PM  

Napoleon 12pdr wrote:I'll confess to being nervous.

Time to find a different faith, then.

God never fails. Clinton could win and complete the destruction of America, but there would still a hope and future for God's own in that scenario.

America's problem is not political, it's spiritual. Fix the right problem, first.

Anonymous johnc August 04, 2016 2:28 PM  

Big Media -- which is an arm of the DNC -- is quite effective at forming the narrative. That's primarily why Romney lost in what should have been an easy election.

After watching the Democratic Convention I thought the Dems were done for. They couldn't have been more out of touch. And I think they and the Big Media knew how bad it was also, and that's why the Trump attacks ramped up like nothing we've seen yet. They're constantly hammering him over stuff of trivial importance, while the big issues are suppressed.

Is it effective? Probably. Primarily because there are still a lot of people out there who aren't affected by the nation's problems -- their pension money is still rolling in and nobody they know has had his head chopped off by a Muslim yet. And there are still a lot of people who just listen to the Big Media all day and lap it up like morons.

Blogger Gaiseric August 04, 2016 2:29 PM  

The notion that the Khantroversy is costing Trump support among actual, non-treasonous Americans is laughable. Khan is already an embarrassment to the DNC, and the marching orders to the media to shut up and lay low about Khan seem to have already started to circulate, as the furor has largely gone quiet in favor of, "Trump's crazy because he thinks Democrats cheat!" And the notion that that is going to turn voters off of him is even more bizarre than the notion that him criticizing a Sharia First Mahometan is.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr August 04, 2016 2:29 PM  

Well, the Establishment of BOTH parties screwed up this cycle, royally.

Trump is the nominee only because the GOPe failed to see that the electorate was completely fed up with the status quo go-along-to-keep-your-place-at-the-feed-trough Republi-cowards in Congress. And, of course, with the importation of massive numbers of people to undercut American workers. Were they smart, the GOPe would have found a governor with a record of pushing against the GOPe (like Reagan) and backed him.

The Democrats? It doesn't take an aerospace engineer to figure out that nominating a former Secretary of State with a poor track record was a bad bargain. Go get a half-competent governor.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 04, 2016 2:34 PM  

The Troll Narrative is; The coalition of the fringes is unbeatable. Well ok then ask Rohini Sethi what she thinks of her coalition partners at some crappy university where all she said was that "All lives matter."

Sure the coalition looks swell on paper under two conditions, the first that the money is there and second you have a persuasive messianic figure who can sell bullshit as caviar.

Trump has to maintain frame, show amused mastery, reframe everything thrown his way and playfully neg the gals who might just might want a throw in the electoral sack with an alpha.

Let the Left go Trigglypuff

Anonymous andon August 04, 2016 2:34 PM  

4. Anonymous Faceless August 04, 2016 1:09 PM
Ricky Vaughn 99 has suggested for months that it all starts with one push from Labor Day. He has said Trump does pushes and retreats in waves.


I notice Ricky V linking to this blog quite a bit lately. maybe his 50k followers account for some of the increased traffic

Blogger Were-Puppy August 04, 2016 2:35 PM  

@36 YIH
One thing Trump is going to have a problem with, like it or not, the NFL.
---

F the NFL and their gay pink uniforms.

Anonymous #8601 August 04, 2016 2:37 PM  

@47 Nick S - I'm sticking with my providence theory.

The God Emperor!

Anonymous andon August 04, 2016 2:37 PM  

@ #57 - major league sports, like most big businesses, are the enemy

Blogger Jon M August 04, 2016 2:40 PM  

"If Trump would just shut up about Khan, then everyone would stop talking about it and the controversy would be over," is a profoundly stupid thing to say. The unstated assumption is that moving on from Khan would end all attacks, and anyone with half a brain knows that the DNC always has another dozen attacks up their sleeve. Moving on wouldn't create space for Trump's message, it would just create room for more attacks.

Given that the Khan attack is so spectacularly stupid ("Trump should be more like the woman who sent my son to his death," stupid) why would Trump want to move on from it? He should milk that bad boy for as long as possible.

The idiots who say Trump should shut up about it are also the ones who want him to sign a full confession in the form of issuing an apology. Anyone with two brain cells to rub together can read the SJW Survival Guide linked to on the right and understand that apologies are tools of your enemy. In this case silence on Trump's part would be an admission of being in the wrong, which is no different from an apology.

This isn't difficult, people.

Blogger Were-Puppy August 04, 2016 2:41 PM  

I saw a spry old granny leap out of a van earlier that had a MAGA bumper sticker. It was shocking to me because those are the ones I was sure are voting for Hitlery Rodan Crimeton because she got some female plumbing.

Blogger Were-Puppy August 04, 2016 2:43 PM  

@59 andon
@ #57 - major league sports, like most big businesses, are the enemy
--

At least the Redskins haven't let them turn their name into something really stupid like the Washington Globalists

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr August 04, 2016 2:55 PM  

@60: Concur on NOT apologizing. Vox is right about that, it's taken as a sign of weakness and will trigger a swarm attack.

At most, disengage.

Anonymous wEz August 04, 2016 3:02 PM  

Thanks for the statistical analysis EH. I hope you're right.

Anonymous DT August 04, 2016 3:03 PM  

@45 - saved.

Are any of the polls worth a damn? I normally only pay attention to Rasmussen's polling. Right now he does show her at +4 over Trump, but that's consistent with a temporary convention bounce.

Anonymous patrick kelly August 04, 2016 3:05 PM  

"why would Trump want to move on from it? He should milk that bad boy for as long as possible."

Exactly, it's a counter, it's taking the energy of the enemy attack and turning it against them, forcing them to respond and likely make another mistake to take advantage.

Blogger The Gray Man August 04, 2016 3:09 PM  

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/08/04/if_trump_is_truly_imploding_and_i_don_t_think_he_is_then_why_is_the_washington_establishment_panicking

RUSH: The Washington establishment is in full destroy mode. The entire Washington establishment, consisting of the Republican establishment, the Democrat establishment, the media establishment, the think-tank establishment -- the entire political class -- has arrayed every gun that it has at the Trump campaign, and they are firing both barrels 24/7. It is a breathtaking sight to behold, ladies and gentlemen. Why all of this panic?

Anonymous Bobby Farr August 04, 2016 3:10 PM  

I think the media's ability to drive the narrative has been so compromised by Trump that the MSM won't have a meaningful impact on the election. They are so obviously frothing at the mouth over Trump, covering their front pages with hit pieces, that it is hard for even the most gullible voter to believe they are at all objective. And Trump is constantly berating the media and noting their lack of objectivity, which prevents them from trying to put back on their veil of impartiality.

Anonymous BluePony August 04, 2016 3:11 PM  

"America's problem is not political, it's spiritual. Fix the right problem, first."

I'm not a religious person, but I agree with you. There's an almost palpable darkness growing in the heart of nearly everything these days.

I'd love to see Trump win, but the corruption is nearly complete. Here in California it's clearly evident from Sacramento on down to local utility boards. They're all just siphoning taxpayer money into their pockets while doing the minimum job possible to keep the gravy train going.

The high speed rail boondoggle is literally a train. They never intended to actually build it.

There's just no morality anywhere, religious, secular based or otherwise.

Anonymous andon August 04, 2016 3:11 PM  

@ #67 - I believe it and they're all traitors to this country

Anonymous Slowpoke August 04, 2016 3:19 PM  

I wish trump would get back inside the MSM's ooda loop and get back on the offensive and increase his momentum. It feels like he has lost momentum and that's bad.

Anonymous #8601 August 04, 2016 3:21 PM  

Warren Buffett has joined his billionaire friends like (((Bloomberg))) and (((Mark Cuban))) against Trump.

He's finished now!

Blogger Student in Blue August 04, 2016 3:21 PM  

Unfortunately there are still morons who listen and believe the MSM. Just had a run-in with one who was leaning Trump before -- "What an inconsiderate bastard Trump is, saying those things about [the Khan] family."

Blogger YIH August 04, 2016 3:23 PM  

@44 BGKB:
Some leftists have been saying that TRUMP will send niggers back to Africa
LOL, if only. Four years ago there were claims if mittens became Prez, they'd be sent back to the cotton fields.
Could you imagine what it would do if some useless dindu was sucked up into the equipment?
We're talking several weeks of downtime and likely a five-figure repair bill.
Also the claim ''If Romney wins they'll kill Big Bird!'' - also ridiculous: I knew someone would buy up Sesame Street eventually, the only surprise was HBO got it and not Disney!

Anonymous Shut up rabbit August 04, 2016 3:25 PM  

wEz wrote:The US is a sinking ship, that possibly has already sunk politically.

Thankfully, the entitled classes you cite don't (or can't) get off their enormous fat asses and are so dumb as to be convinced by the msm cheerleading that they have stocked up on extra "Doritos" and "Ben & Jerry's" for the inevitable victory party so they don't even be dressed to go out on election day.

Imagine the stampede to the mobility scooters when the screeching gibbmedats, dressed only in soiled pants start hearing the results of the exit polls and realise what their fat, lazy entitlement has done...priceless.

The main risk is the corrupt bean counters simply lying about the results.

Blogger CarpeOro August 04, 2016 3:26 PM  

@43 "No one cares that you had a name tag in the Bush administration."

I do. It is a sign that they aren't to be trusted without a load of offsetting positives. I only say that because Bush may have done one correct thing.

Anonymous Tad August 04, 2016 3:29 PM  

I'm more interested in the reaction that comes if Trump loses. I think the answer depends on how close the race is. However, I guarantee Yrump will lose the gay Jew vote.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 04, 2016 3:29 PM  

Drudge is more important than most of the establishment media

Anonymous Shut up rabbit August 04, 2016 3:34 PM  

#ImWithHer wrote:college-educated

You keep using that phrase, I do not think it means what you think it means.

Blogger Nick S August 04, 2016 3:36 PM  

Shut up, Tad.

Anonymous Tad August 04, 2016 3:39 PM  

Pennsylvania looks terrible for Trump

Anonymous andon August 04, 2016 3:41 PM  

71. Anonymous #8601 August 04, 2016 3:21 PM
Warren Buffett has joined his billionaire friends like (((Bloomberg))) and (((Mark Cuban))) against Trump.

He's finished now!


Trump should point out buffet raking in $$$ by shipping oil by railcar instead of the U.S. building a proper pipeline. Then there's also buffet's claim that the rich should be paying higher taxes but as soon as the IRS sent him a big fat bill he called his tax lawyers to fight it.

Anonymous Avenge Harambe! August 04, 2016 3:43 PM  

Holy crap! The stink of desperation in the MSM-SJW media is overwhelming...

And to think this is only the first week of August! Just wait until late October...

Anonymous Tad August 04, 2016 3:46 PM  

"The idea that being openly anti-Muslim and anti-PC is going to hurt Trump in this election is amusing."

It won't hurt him with the old , white southern crowd, that's a given. But it will lead to a bigger roll out in urban areas of swing states and with gay Jews.

Anonymous The Smoking Man August 04, 2016 3:50 PM  

Perhaps an alt-right meme machine for cruzies and other defectors: Oath-Breaker-Republicans. Even it if was a pledge and not an oath, people still conflate the 2. Republicans still virtue signal Honor and there is nothing more dishonorable than breaking your word. Supporting one of these OBRs is tantamount to being dishonorable yourself...something they still (appear) to care about.

Anonymous andon August 04, 2016 3:50 PM  

i'm starting to wonder what wikileaks has cooking

Blogger Gaiseric August 04, 2016 3:52 PM  

Tad wrote:However, I guarantee Yrump [sic] will lose the gay Jew vote.
So... he lost your vote, then?

Anonymous Tad August 04, 2016 3:56 PM  

Along with too many straight Christian Pennsylvanians.

Anonymous BGKB August 04, 2016 3:57 PM  

"Pennsylvania looks terrible for Trump" You mean the State where Pittsburg only had 36 supporters show up at a location that could house thousands. Her servants probably outnumbered the crowd.

Cuck Cruz for HillDog https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/08/03/uniparty-ready-for-hillary/

Anonymous Be Not Afraid August 04, 2016 3:57 PM  

@80. PA and Trump

A lot of it is that even the Republicans here are mostly liberal, and women especially so. Magic Lady Parts have a powerful pull on women. And women here love their Planned Parenthood. Put all of it together, and you get terrible polling results in the Philly suburbs. I'm not sure Jeb! or some such squish would be doing better. With the differently-pigmented bloc voting in Philly and Pittsburg, all the illegals in farming and the dead who will be voting, women, and inevitable fraud, yeah, PA's gonna be tough.

But I believe this foaming-at-the-mouth media frenzy is in large part a psy-op to get us down and an attempt to actually foment rebellion in Camp Trump.

Blogger dc.sunsets August 04, 2016 3:58 PM  

Trump & immigration. The two irresistible troll baits.

Anonymous BGKB August 04, 2016 4:00 PM  

i'm starting to wonder what wikileaks has cooking
It was posted yesterday

http://freedomoutpost.com/wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-1700-emails-in-hillary-clintons-collection-demonstrate-her-sale-of-weapons-to-islamic-jihadists-in-syria/

Blogger Brian S August 04, 2016 4:01 PM  

maybe they're finally desperate enough roll out the fake alien invasion, my tin foil hat's been getting warmer lately

Anonymous Spartacus xxxxx August 04, 2016 4:06 PM  

EH wrote:[Google search isn't indexing voxday.blogspot.com fully. Searches on: " site:voxday.blogspot.com "EH August" OR "EH July" " don't find many of my posts in the past month. The site search in the upper left of the page does not work, either, for instance returning 1 result from years ago for "EV", but also for any search, apparently.]

This search seems to work just fine with https://duckduckgo.com/ as long as the outer parentheses are used as you have them.

I remember what a friend told me
one silent, dark hour,
Of his forbidden nighttime vigil

Anonymous andon August 04, 2016 4:09 PM  

@ #91 - thanks

Anonymous ZhukovG August 04, 2016 4:18 PM  

Well, Tad, all the straight Jews I know are voting for Trump, and they hate Hillary with a passion that even I find somewhat alarming.

Blogger Salt August 04, 2016 4:19 PM  

Faceless wrote:He's doing five waves; he advances on the odd ones and retreats on the even ones; we're in wave four.

Elliot Wave? Might work nicely.

Anonymous Tad August 04, 2016 4:20 PM  

@95
But did you see the florida poll? Holy Shit. Trump is getting slammed in the Sunshine state as well as PA.

Plus a new poll shows that far more voters were more likely to vote for Hillary than for donald after seeing the conventions.

I'm still dying to see the reaction among the poor white southerners when Trump loses.

Blogger Josh August 04, 2016 4:24 PM  

Shut up tad

Blogger Salt August 04, 2016 4:25 PM  

MJ is describing Tad. Tad is scared. Tad wets his pants.

Anonymous Cheddarman August 04, 2016 4:26 PM  

I am waiting for Trump to come out and dismiss all of the swirling chaos with a simple statement like this:

"Is this all your going to hit me with, Crooked Hillary? Is this all you've got?" And then dismiss it with a wave of his hand, and talk about making America Great Again.

Blogger cheddarman August 04, 2016 4:29 PM  

Blogger Ingot9455 August 04, 2016 4:29 PM  

Trump has my gay jew vote, so at least I cancel out Tad.

Fortunately I can also funnel in money from the vast Zionist conspiracy as well.

Blogger Salt August 04, 2016 4:34 PM  

"for each of us to help fight this certain and specific brand of evil now facing our country and I finally think I’ve come up with a halfway decent idea: let’s agree we won’t sleep with anyone who is a Trump supporter. Not now, not for the next three months ― hell, I’m willing to say never again if you are."

This is great! Huffpo. It's that ridiculous.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/stop-sleeping-with-donald-trump-supporters_us_57a1e4c7e4b08a8e8b601bb6

Blogger Salt August 04, 2016 4:39 PM  

Hey, Tad? bwahahahahaha

"We spoke to a source who works at Nate Silver's political advocacy group fivethirtyeight.com.

RealTrueNews: "Is it fair to say that Silver is worried?"

538 Source: "In a panic. Our business model is predicated on making liberals feel better about the election. Right now? It's a disaster."

RTN: "So what are you doing?"

538: "Well, we're changing the model for starters. There were a few hours when the server was showing the real projections and while traffic was pretty high, let me tell you, it was a melt-down politically."

RTN: "What do you mean?"

538: "Well, Nate's a liberal. No secret there. When he saw what was happening he flipped out. Had us look for bugs--something gone wrong--looking at the feeds. Of course nothing was wrong. Nothing had changed. Then he got on the phone with his people embedded with Q-Pac and Survey Monkey and PPP and all those guys--"

RTN: "Wait--embedded?"

538: "Huh? Oh, yeah--it's a big social club. The pollsters all work together. We have a Slack-room that's sharing all kinds of results and skews and all that. That's how we keep it all orderly."

RTN: "Orderly?"

538: "Sure--what? You think it's . . . random? Come on. Who do you think pays for the polls? People who want results. You're buying media. It's like ads or . . . I don't know. Like newspaper stories? You pay 30k for a poll of Florida, it says what you want.""

http://www.realtruenews.org/single-post/2016/08/02/POLL-PANIC-Nate-Silver-Scrambles-to-Save-Liberals

Anonymous johnc August 04, 2016 4:41 PM  

I think everybody already knows (and doesn't care) that Obama and Hillary created and funded ISIS. This has been pretty public knowledge for awhile now, so I'm not sure that the Wikileaks emails will be too damaging.

If you really want to freak people out, tell them the Democrats are going to take away their abortions and contraceptions. They'll be in a total panic.

Blogger darkdoc August 04, 2016 4:41 PM  

Polls are the media making their own news.

But polls in August really don't matter for crap. Why try to predict something so easily changed.

This is classic SJW doubling / tripling / quadrupling down.

Blogger Harleyrose59 August 04, 2016 4:45 PM  

Why would you think Trump needs Ryan? Ryan is being replaced by Nehlen next Tuesday. He's out of the equation.
And whatever Hillary has festering under the Mao mu-mu's is likely to come to a head and burst by November!
Unless Trump gives her a stroke during the debates. That's my personal favorite.

Blogger Were-Puppy August 04, 2016 4:47 PM  

@92 Brian S
maybe they're finally desperate enough roll out the fake alien invasion, my tin foil hat's been getting warmer lately
---

A lot of the ufo watchers are getting agitated with an overflow of sightings lately.

Blogger Sean Carnegie August 04, 2016 4:49 PM  

"for each of us to help fight this certain and specific brand of evil now facing our country and I finally think I’ve come up with a halfway decent idea: let’s agree we won’t sleep with anyone who is a Trump supporter. Not now, not for the next three months ― hell, I’m willing to say never again if you are."

Separate but equal, amirite?? Awful nice of the Huffpo to make things easier for us.

Blogger LurkingPuppy August 04, 2016 4:49 PM  

Salt wrote:http://www.realtruenews.org/single-post/2016/08/02/POLL-PANIC-Nate-Silver-Scrambles-to-Save-Liberals
Well, it's funnier than Fake Tad.

Blogger Marty August 04, 2016 4:53 PM  

I remember one of the headlines from yesterday saying that Trump might dropout. In their dreams. He's got them scared shitless. If he was doing as bad as they try to tell us he is then they wouldn't bother to let him know that he is making mistakes. They're just feeding the dems preferred narrative that he's completely out of control and reckless.

Anonymous andon August 04, 2016 4:54 PM  

103. Blogger Salt August 04, 2016 4:34 PM
"for each of us to help fight this certain and specific brand of evil now facing our country and I finally think I’ve come up with a halfway decent idea: let’s agree we won’t sleep with anyone who is a Trump supporter. Not now, not for the next three months ― hell, I’m willing to say never again if you are."

This is great! Huffpo. It's that ridiculous.


this is how weak men have become. Men should be saying, you don't vote for Trump i'm throwing you out the house.

Anonymous FP August 04, 2016 4:58 PM  

"Fallacy #2: Media is CREATING a false narrative."

Yes, yes. And CNN didn't do a segment on how Trump eats KFC. Because apparently it is un American to use a knife and fork. That Khan dude is as American as apple pie though.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/08/02/kfc-knife-and-fork-moos-pkg-erin.cnn

Anonymous Alien Chestbuster, lurking for now August 04, 2016 5:01 PM  

And whatever Hillary has festering under the Mao mu-mu's is likely to come to a head and burst by November!

Stop it! Don't give away the surprise!

OpenID basementhomebrewer August 04, 2016 5:06 PM  

Meanwhile,
Hillary Panics at a Rally

Trying to figure out if that is fear or another malfunction with the Hilbot 2016. Notice her secret service is well versed in how to react to these situations and how to coach her through it. Last I checked SS was supposed to be a protection detail not a campaign coaches.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 04, 2016 5:12 PM  

Sean Carnegie wrote:"for each of us to help fight this certain and specific brand of evil now facing our country and I finally think I’ve come up with a halfway decent idea: let’s agree we won’t sleep with anyone who is a Trump supporter. Not now, not for the next three months ― hell, I’m willing to say never again if you are."

Unspoken codicils
1) Unless I want to
2) unless Judy, that bitch, is making a play for you
3) Unless I'm feeling lonely,ugly, depressed, undesirable
4) I'm a lesbian so I can say this shit without thinking.

Anonymous Credo in Unum Deum August 04, 2016 5:21 PM  

I am 100% convinced that Donald Trump has read Sun Tzu's "The Art of War".

One of the maxims in that little book is, "When you're weak, appear strong, when you're strong, appear weak."

What better way to appear weak then to feed the media some false stories about Donald Trump's campaign being in disarray and that staff members are on the verge of suicide.

Anonymous ixxi August 04, 2016 5:21 PM  

Are paid Hillary Clinton shills commenting here too?

Anonymous AndrewV August 04, 2016 5:21 PM  

Trump seems to have a tiny bit of Caesar's strategic sense to him. Caesar is known for his great leadership on the battlefield but one of his regular tactics was the strategic retreat. I think Trump understands that it is entirely possible to concede ground and allow the enemy to believe they are gaining momentum before outmaneuvering and overwhelming them.

In his point of view, who cares if Hillary is leading at the polls today? There are months to go and three debates to be had. Let Hillary and the media believe they have him on the run while he plans to decimate her on live national television during the debates. It will be awfully difficult for them to spin a terrible debate performance (just like in the first 2012 debate) and he simply needs to not repeat Romney's mistakes once he beats her for the world to see.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 04, 2016 5:33 PM  

ixxi wrote:Are paid Hillary Clinton shills commenting here too?
Oh, most definitely. 2 or 3 a day

Anonymous Sam the Man August 04, 2016 5:44 PM  

#24, # 33 and Tad

I live is southeast PA, frequent some social circles that are liberal (Jewish) and conservative (gun owners) and folks in-between (technical folks). The polls showing Trump doing badly do not reflect what I see on the ground. Granted I could be in a pocket, but what the polls are reporting does not reflect what I see day to day, and there was a similar attempt to tell us we were going to vote Cruz during the primary season, when Cruz did not win a single county in the state. Here is where I see the narrative break down:

1) Jews: Publically they hate Trump and tell you how qualified Hillary is. Of course they are whipped by their wives and want to avoid the overt hostility that comes with the intense cognitive dissidence that is deny the truth of what trump is saying: Immigrants are bad for Jews, especially when they are from Muslim countries. It is getting harder and harder for them to deny reality and right now they are mad. Come October I think reality will hit.

2) Gunowners: they see this for what it is, if Trump losses they are screwed. Solid trump Support, no wavier

3) Republicans in general: The seem to be really enthusiastic about Trump, though they will not say it in public, once they know you are not going to go off on them they will tell you why: he is the first candidate in a generation who is talking about the issues that matter.

4)Houswives and suburban chicks: this crowd was all in for Obama in 2008 and to a slightly less er degree in 2012. Saw lots of the Starbucks crowd with Obama signs back then. Now missing. Fact is women crave security and when there is a terrorist strike every 4 days in the west, even they can tell something needs to change. Trump does not have a lack of suburban female support, at least form what I see and I live in this world.

5) Enthusiasm gap: There is no enthusiasm for Hillary. Simple as that. Not with any demographic.

6) The folks that are for her (liberals, reform Jews, lesbians, blacks and bitter divorced women) are all mad. Why, unless there is something in the zeitgeist that tells them this season they are on the losing side. In 2008 and 2012 the liberals were upbeat, not any more.

Of course I could be wrong, but I go with Vox on this, until after the Olympics, debates in September and October will be the time to pay attention to the polls, as then the polling organizations will have to put the real stuff up.

Anonymous Fed Up Aussie August 04, 2016 5:44 PM  

Meanwhile in Australia there is a news program on in the background (ABC24) where some talking head has just said Trump's campaign is over. To think we the taxpayer are forced to fund these fools.

Anonymous Spartacus xxxxx August 04, 2016 5:52 PM  

Ingot9455 wrote:Trump has my gay jew vote, so at least I cancel out Tad.

Fortunately I can also funnel in money from the vast Zionist conspiracy as well



Awesome! Please to contact me immediate the wire transfer for SWIFT routing # and account details.

Blogger guest August 04, 2016 6:10 PM  

I'm becoming torn. I never thought I would vote for Trump, and recently there is a possibility that I might. It isn't that I like Trump

It's that all of the Republican Progs who hate him and plan to contribute and vote for Clinton. These are the ones who might just talk me into voting Trump.

Blogger AdognamedOp August 04, 2016 6:14 PM  

There's a recent video of Obama's daughter at Lalapalooza twerking and showing her ass to the crowd. It didn't make any of the local news, obviously. Could you imagine one of Trumps kid doing the same?
I despise the MSM.

Blogger SirHamster August 04, 2016 6:18 PM  

ixxi wrote:Are paid Hillary Clinton shills commenting here too?

Thought we already had a bunch banned and/or spammed.

What incentive structure does one use to keep trolls motivated on sites where they are quickly identified and neutralized?

Since MPAI, I'd guess path of least resistance ...

Blogger Robert Divinity August 04, 2016 7:02 PM  

My favorite is blaming Capt Kahn's death on Obama and Hillary when that death took place before Obama was in office.

In a sense. Ctp. Khan was one of the many people the warmonger Hillary Clinton did murder. She voted to authorize the war, and during her husband's administration laid down the groundwork for it. She should be tried for war crimes for what she did in Libya, at a minimum.

Blogger Derek Kite August 04, 2016 7:03 PM  

Trump just broke another rule. The Democrats trot out some sob story to sell either a lie or fiasco. 'Conservatives' dive under the furniture. Democrats win.

Trump says I want to hear his wife speak. A week long hubbub ensues.

Two things. If you get trotted out you will regret it. Second, your sob story doesn't make me cry.

No wonder the media and Democrats are going crazy. This is like getting kneecapped.

What happens if Trump not only survives but comes out of this week long media mob stronger?

Blogger pyrrhus August 04, 2016 7:07 PM  

@116 I think we should all agree not to sleep with Hillary supporters until Hillary is in prison, with a trip to Hawaii thrown in if Bill is gone too....

Blogger Ingot9455 August 04, 2016 7:08 PM  

@123 Now now, the gay Orthodox jews traffic in diamonds, didn't you know? Much better than the hidden bags of jew gold.

Blogger Harry Cassandra August 04, 2016 7:22 PM  

I'm writing while on a trip to Aberdeen, Scotland and I visited Trump's golf course today. The staff were, predictably, all young and quite attractive. The ambiance was restrained, pleasant, nothing ostentatious and the food was no more expensive than what you find in your average restaurant in town.

I had the salisbury steak for my main course. It was as tough as his personality. All buttered up and supported by a phalanx of mushrooms. Yet rather tasteless, poorly textured and ultimately disappointing. For a moment I feared his presidency, for all its attractive garnishes, will similarly fail to meat my expectations.

But then again, the appetiser of haggis balls, a nationalist dish, were heavenly. Truly delicious!

I also chuckled when I walked into the men's loo and noticed the urinals had no courtesy flaps between them for privacy...this is a place for confident men who shake their stuff without embarrassment or insecurity...I know that's silly, but I DID picture Trump choosing the urinal design.

Anonymous johnc August 04, 2016 7:36 PM  

@125 I despise the MSM.

They're the worst. In order to make any progress in this country we're going to have to overturn the Big Media apple cart.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 04, 2016 7:40 PM  

There are only 2 major considerations in public bathroom design; cleaning and graffiti. The open plan is much much better for both.
Any psychological consideration is at best secondary.

Anonymous andon August 04, 2016 8:03 PM  

129. Blogger Derek Kite August 04, 2016 7:03 PM

What happens if Trump not only survives but comes out of this week long media mob stronger?


I was wondering this too

Anonymous Jack August 04, 2016 8:04 PM  

What concerns me is how this seems to mirror what I heard in 2012.

Then: "Sure Obama has the lead in the polls, but the sampling is all wrong. If you correct for X and Y, Romney will win!"
Now: "Sure Clinton has the lead in the polls, but the sampling is all wrong. There's a silent Trump majority!"

Then: "Oh wow Obama can't pull crowds at all, look at the three people who showed up to listen to Stevie Wonder sing for an Obama event! Look at the huge crowds Romney is pulling! He sold out Red Rock!"
Now: "There's no enthusiasm for Clinton! Trump's pulling huge crowds!"

Throw on a dash of Republicans always eating each other alive and you've got a very similar stage set.

Now, I'm not saying that these similarities between the two years ensure that we're going to see another Clinton in the White House, but... well, I've seen this play before and I don't like how it ended last time.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 04, 2016 8:21 PM  

Drudge running with a WP Salvo tomorrow about Ds smelling blood, sure. Though Jack above makes the best argument I have seen, lackluster crowds, poor sampling were going to put a Stiff over Obama but that didn't pan out

Anonymous BGKB August 04, 2016 8:48 PM  

@131 Now now, the gay Orthodox jews traffic in diamonds, didn't you know? Much better than the hidden bags of jew gold

They are not all gay but how they smuggle the diamonds turns some of them that way.

this is a place for confident men who shake their stuff without embarrassment or insecurity

You would really love trough urinals with a mirrored wall above it.

Trump has my gay jew vote, so at least I cancel out Tad.

Gay jews are more afraid of Bibi Netanyahoo than they are of moslem beheaders. Even when you link the story of 3 gay jews beheaded on 9-11-2011 who just so happened to live right next door to the boston marathon moslems at jewish Pam Geller's site. It's like they are stuck doing whatever the Soros paid jewish lesbian gatekeepers tell them to do.

What better way to appear weak then to feed the media some false stories about Donald Trump's campaign being in disarray

The story about his wife being an illegal alien covers the part about how she had to go back and forth to get visas. Only speculating that she couldn't work in the US on her visa but is letting people take pictures of you actually work?

Yes, yes. And CNN didn't do a segment on how Trump eats KFC. Because apparently it is un American to use a knife and fork.

I had an ex that would tease me about that.

let’s agree we won’t sleep with anyone who is a Trump supporter. Not now, not for the next three months

Save money on alimony by planning ahead.

OT: Good news about the American woman killed in London saw this in a comment section. Keep up targeting weak leftists that think moslems are equal:
"The great horrible irony is that Horton's professor husband is a prominent member of a left wing front pro immigration "academic" group (AERA) which actively supports mass immigration of Muslims into the US and Europe."

Anonymous Malwyn's apprentice August 04, 2016 9:01 PM  

@25 #Imwithher:
Trump's appeal is limited to non-college whites in rural areas. If anyone here really believes that college-educated whites in urban and ex-urban areas are voting for Trump, you're delusional.

{raises hand}
I'm a college-educated white woman in north NJ, and I'm voting for Trump. But, looking at your assessment above, I don't exist -- that'll be a shock to my mother.

Haven't you ever heard of "the shy Tory" effect? Essentially, people lie to pollsters (tell them what they want to hear), and vote for their preferred candidate in the voting booth.

But, you just go ahead and vote for your felon, who evidently is more qualified for the White House than Our Savior (Barack Obama) ... he told us that himself, so it must be true!

Anonymous Siobhan August 04, 2016 9:11 PM  

"In a radio interview on Chicago’s Morning Answer radio program, would-be congressman Paul Nehlen suggested that the US should consider full deportation of all Muslims in the country. “The question is, why do we have Muslims in the country?” Nehlen asked."

Blogger So Meh August 04, 2016 9:16 PM  

the debate this time will matter. if voters look at them side by side during the debate and say..."Can't do any worse." He wins. If not, we tried. $20 trillion in debt and counting.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 04, 2016 9:17 PM  

The I Don't Care What You Think attitude is great, because once PC starts to crack we rout it

Blogger OneWingedShark August 04, 2016 10:16 PM  

Jack wrote:What concerns me is how this seems to mirror what I heard in 2012.
[...]

Throw on a dash of Republicans always eating each other alive and you've got a very similar stage set.

Now, I'm not saying that these similarities between the two years ensure that we're going to see another Clinton in the White House, but... well, I've seen this play before and I don't like how it ended last time.


There's one huge difference: nobody was excited about Romney in 2012 either. It was like the Republican-party had done its best to find mirror-universe Obama and run him against Obama. (And remember the shenanigans in the primaries and at the RNC to deprive Ron Paul of delegates, too; in that respect it was a foreshadowing of their fear of Trump, who is also an outsider.)

I seriously think that Ron Paul would have beat Obama then if he'd gotten the nomination; his supporters were enthusiastic and it would have allowed people that were concerned about our debt and economics a vote for someone who shared their concerns. -- There was, and is, a lot of interest in keeping the handling of large sums of money on the down-low: from the Fed to government corruption to aid and comfort of the enemy. (The last two, I think, are the reason that the FBI recommended against prosecution: the Clinton Foundation was/is directly linked to Hillary, and there is significant evidence of constitutionally-defined Treason.)

Anonymous jack August 04, 2016 10:30 PM  

@143

Well, I legitimately hope you're right, OneWingedShark. I guess we'll find out one way or another.

Blogger dh August 04, 2016 10:31 PM  

There's a recent video of Obama's daughter at Lalapalooza twerking and showing her ass to the crowd. It didn't make any of the local news, obviously. Could you imagine one of Trumps kid doing the same?

Yes, we can.

Tiffany Trump, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3191788/Tiffany-Trump-screams-Jason-Derulo-concert-Hamptons.html

Virtually the same behaviour - dancing while young at a concert.


I'm a college-educated white woman in north NJ, and I'm voting for Trump. But, looking at your assessment above, I don't exist -- that'll be a shock to my mother.

New Jersey Republicans have some of the least valuable votes of anyone in the country. Since NJ is about +15 for Clinton, your vote has the weight about 1/6 of the most powerful vote, which is one in Florida (right now). Statistically speaking, you don't count for much.

Blogger dh August 04, 2016 10:34 PM  

Now, I'm not saying that these similarities between the two years ensure that we're going to see another Clinton in the White House, but... well, I've seen this play before and I don't like how it ended last time.

You have a good view that I agree with on enthusiasm. Both candidates will always have a loyal base. You can't make it out of the primary without a loyal base. In large areas, that loyal base can fill an arena, anytime.

What you can't do is translate the enthusiasm with the base to the wider public. The wider public dislikes Mr. Trump, a lot. The wider public is excited to vote against Mr. Trump, and will do so even if means voting for Mrs. Clinton.



Anonymous AmStrat August 04, 2016 10:45 PM  

@dh

Source? Keep in mind most sources as to the likability are fairly tainted.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 04, 2016 10:52 PM  

dh wrote:The wider public dislikes Mr. Trump, a lot. The wider public is excited to vote against Mr. Trump, and will do so even if means voting for Mrs. Clinton.



I presume you have a super-accurate series of state polls that demonstrate that. Or you're pulling it out of your ass.

Blogger The Other Robot August 04, 2016 10:53 PM  

New Jersey Republicans have some of the least valuable votes of anyone in the country. Since NJ is about +15 for Clinton, your vote has the weight about 1/6 of the most powerful vote, which is one in Florida (right now). Statistically speaking, you don't count for much.

I do believe that DH was a deep troll all along.

If Trump is going to lose, and that seems to be your preference, why bother to tell us while we can do something about it? We can:

Donate more money to Trump,
Talk to people and show them that the press are lying turds,
Any number of other things.

The funny thing is I live in a normally blue state where I find a lot of women of color and other minorities are planning on voting.

An Clinton has not endeared herself to Democrats from my state.

In any event, we will see.

Blogger tz August 04, 2016 10:55 PM  

The Trumpslide explained H/T a commenter at TheConservativeTreehouse.com

Blogger The Other Robot August 04, 2016 10:56 PM  

@144: I believe Trump has heard of 孫子.

Blogger BassmanCO August 04, 2016 11:02 PM  

@146

DH,

I am married to a Democrat, who voted for Obama twice who has already confirmed she is voting for Trump. Don't believe all the hype. The media WANTS you to believe Trump will lose. There is a reason for theat.

Blogger Robert Divinity August 04, 2016 11:08 PM  

I slapped more money on Trump when the market hit 22 today; it's been ticking up a bit since then. The media did a good job of piling on this week but it won't sustain Clinton through the first debate and has reached maximum utility. In fact, it's been over the top enough to be noticed by ordinary folks.

I still remain convinced Hillary cannot win, and could lose significantly based on events outside anyone's control.

Blogger SirHamster August 04, 2016 11:30 PM  

Harry Cassandra wrote:I also chuckled when I walked into the men's loo and noticed the urinals had no courtesy flaps between them for privacy...this is a place for confident men who shake their stuff without embarrassment or insecurity...I know that's silly, but I DID picture Trump choosing the urinal design.

Heh, gotta trust men to follow basic bathroom etiquette. Stare straight and no eye contact.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis August 04, 2016 11:33 PM  

If the LongRoom poll aggregate corrected for bias is indicative of anything, and they were within +-0.3% of the actual results for the last 3 presidential cycles, then Trump isn't in a bad spot.

Currently they show him up on Hillary by .9% after biases are taken into account. Which means that if this is the best the DNC/Media can do is turn a 5 point deficit to a .9 point deficit then they are in trouble.

https://www.longroom.com/polls/

Blogger The Other Robot August 04, 2016 11:33 PM  

I think Trump's refusal to endorse Ryan was correct and strategic.

Good riddance to Ryan, I hope.

Blogger dh August 04, 2016 11:39 PM  

> I presume you have a super-accurate series of state polls that demonstrate that. Or you're pulling it out of your ass.


There is substantial polling on this:

Clinton - 42/52 favorable/unfavorable
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/clinton_favorableunfavorable-1131.html

Trump - 34/59 favorable/unfavorable
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html


As for "voting for/or against", see this poll from Fox, released today:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/08/03/fox-news-poll-aug-3-2016/

50% of Clinton supporters are voting "for her", 47% are voting "against" Donald Trump

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 04, 2016 11:44 PM  

The WaPo article at Drudge is good propaganda IMO their potential high water mark. Untold number of Republicans are crossing that aisle to vote Hillary such as Meg Whitman and some other losers. Personally I thought Khan the secret weapon but Damn it's Meg

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 04, 2016 11:44 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Lazarus August 04, 2016 11:50 PM  

SirHamster wrote:Heh, gotta trust men to follow basic bathroom etiquette. Stare straight and no eye contact.

Eyes on your own work there, Superchief

Anonymous Bobby Farr August 04, 2016 11:54 PM  

Given the volatility of recent polls, their huge current spread and the frenzied hostility of the media and pundits, I don't see how polls can be given much probative value at this stage. I will give more weight to the results of the Wisconsin primary.

Anonymous Tad August 05, 2016 12:01 AM  

"Haven't you ever heard of "the shy Tory" effect? Essentially, people lie to pollsters (tell them what they want to hear), and vote for their preferred candidate in the voting booth."

How can you be sure it's not Hillary voters who are pulling a "Tory". In 2012 in every battleground state but Arizona, Obama ran up the numbers in the final vote over what the RCP average was right before the election. It might be the the news for Trump is far far worse than we think it is. It's gonna be a HillSlide, particularly when the Gay Jew Vote pulls the lever.

Anonymous Tad August 05, 2016 12:07 AM  

"I think Trump's refusal to endorse Ryan was correct and strategic.

Good riddance to Ryan, I hope."

Ryan has an 84/9 favorable/unfavorable rating in his district. I think Ryan will be around to continue to kick Trumps butt for quite some time. In fact Ryan is much more popular in his district than is Trump. If Trump wins Ryan's district in November, it will only be due to Ryan's coattails and the Gay Jewish vote.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis August 05, 2016 12:11 AM  

@162
@163

WEEWOO! WEEWOO! WEEWOO! Shill alert! Shill alert!

Blogger Lazarus August 05, 2016 12:23 AM  

Tad wrote:If Trump wins Ryan's district in November, it will only be due to Ryan's coattails and the Gay Jewish vote.

Tad! Is that really you? I thought you had f#cked and sucked yerself to death by now!

There was a time when Gay Jews got the death penalty. Now I understand why.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 05, 2016 12:28 AM  

Speaking of Cucks Occidental Dissent has the Chronicles of Cuckservative Genocide about two of the cuckiest looking cucks losing races for Congress in TN. Trucons striking out Rapture on hold

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 05, 2016 12:39 AM  

Tad wrote:If Trump wins Ryan's district in November, it will only be due to Ryan's coattails and the Gay Jewish vote.
Gay Jewish vote is 3% of 3%, or about 0.1%
That's about less than the number of people who mark the wrong name on the ballot because they need new glasses.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 05, 2016 12:43 AM  

dh wrote:The wider public dislikes Mr. Trump, a lot. The wider public is excited to vote against Mr. Trump, and will do so even if means voting for Mrs. Clinton.


Favorable/unfavorable does not equal excitement.

You're just pulling it out of your ass now. You're pulling a Nate Silver, casting your own opinions on data in a way that is completely unjustified by the data itself.
We get that you think Trump is going to lose. That's fine. What's not fine is extrapolating from the polling data to reach conclusions unsupported by the evidence.
Stop being a fucktard.

Blogger Lazarus August 05, 2016 1:00 AM  

Snidely Whiplash wrote:That's about less than the number of people who mark the wrong name on the ballot because they need new glasses.

Buchanan got a whole wad of elderly Jewish votes in 2000 in Florida because the structure of the ballot made the addled old bastards think they were voting for Al Gore.

And the rest is history, as they say.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 05, 2016 1:29 AM  

Lazarus wrote:Buchanan got a whole wad of elderly Jewish votes in 2000 in Florida because the structure of the ballot made the addled old bastards think they were voting for Al Gore.

That was the claim. It was demonstrably false, but the Dems did claim that.

Anonymous Jack August 05, 2016 1:30 AM  

@155

Eh, it looks like most of their math works out to a pretty simple "try to find some bias and subtract it from the numbers" and they're not entirely clear on how, exactly, they find what the bias is. They say they use official voting data from past presidential elections, but they're not clear on HOW they use it. I'm also not certain that reality will be as simple as their models seem to claim.

Example: Take a look at the USC-Daybreak poll they try to correct on their site. 44.8% clinton vs 44.2% trump, meaning a .6% clinton lead. They just take that 0.6%, subtract 1.3% for their bias, resulting in a 0.7% trump lead.

It just all seems too convenient and simple. Maybe it really IS that simple, but it sure wasn't in 2012.

They also claim that their polls were accurate to within 0.3% when calculating past presidential elections, but I'm not sure where they get that data. Look at 2012, again:

Their data - 48.5% Obama, 44.7% Romney, 3.8% lead.
Actual result - 50.1% Obama, 48.4% Romney, 2.7% lead.

Now, maybe they meant electoral votes or something, but none of those "predicted" numbers are within 0.3% of any of their counterparts in the actual result.

So they're not clear with their methods and they're not clear with what they mean when they claim historical accuracy. I'm not saying we can trust the more visible polls, but at first glance this seems suspect.

Blogger G-S. August 05, 2016 1:46 AM  

That's right: keep telling yourself it's the media narrative. Just like Rove was convinced Romney would win with his special Fox News polls.

Anonymous The Ramones August 05, 2016 3:35 AM  

"This is a piling-on like I have never seen."

Well, the Sarah Palin one was pretty horrifying (and revealing) too, esp. the rape fantasies. The Trump pile-on is worse, to be sure, but we have in fact seen this before.

I hope VD et al are right. I have two worries:
1) This is going to be very, very crooked. Trump is a canny businessman, maybe his real plan is to build housing developments on top of all the landfills that will be stuffed with Trump votes. He better have some serious security (voter intimidation will be rampant, police will shrug) and some serious watchdogs at the polling stations. Pullman cars full of Hillary votes will mysteriously be discovered in King Tut's tomb.

2) I thought for the very first time that Trump showed poor political judgment in handling the Khan debacle. The Dems set a trap for him and he walked right into it, Khan is their Katie Couric this time around. This was one instance where he should have paused, taken a deep breath, and listened to the counsel of cooler heads. Khan was flat out wrong on his constitutional claim (the immigration issue, not whether Trump had read it) and that could have been used to hammer the Dems on immigration instead of making it personal.

Hopefully this is a one-off, and he'll get himself a good brain-trust, and not ignore them.

Blogger Leo Little Book in Shenzhen August 05, 2016 4:36 AM  

Yep. Scrapping with a Muslim is going to blow up Trump's campaign. He's bleeding out in the street. It's the proverbial scooter under the truck.

Anonymous meh August 05, 2016 5:58 AM  

@118 "I am 100% convinced that Donald Trump has read Sun Tzu's "The Art of War".

One of the maxims in that little book is, "When you're weak, appear strong, when you're strong, appear weak."

What better way to appear weak then to feed the media some false stories about Donald Trump's campaign being in disarray and that staff members are on the verge of suicide."


It is also a good technique for flushing out the cucks pretending to be on your side.


Anonymous Athor Pel August 05, 2016 7:35 AM  

"146. Blogger dh August 04, 2016 10:34 PM
...
What you can't do is translate the enthusiasm with the base to the wider public. The wider public dislikes Mr. Trump, a lot. The wider public is excited to vote against Mr. Trump, and will do so even if means voting for Mrs. Clinton.
"


Except for the fact that voting for Ms. Rodham takes like Draino and is just as nutritious.

Anonymous Athor Pel August 05, 2016 7:36 AM  

Let's try that again.

Except for the fact that voting for Ms. Rodham tastes like Draino and is just as nutritious.

Anonymous Mister M August 05, 2016 8:44 AM  

Charles Burris, the best blogger on Rockwell's site, gives the best parallel for this Kazzir Khan foolishness: https://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/nayirah-private-jessica-lynch-khizr-khan-expendable-disposable-tools-deep-state/

Blogger The Other Robot August 05, 2016 10:22 AM  

I agree with Vox about the Trumpslide and one can see the rigged polls they are now trotting out.

All is proceeding as Trump has planned!

Anonymous Giant Jim August 05, 2016 11:25 AM  

Hillary just stopped buying ads in Virginia and Colorado. That is a sign of a confident campaign that is in the lead and not a sign of a coming Trump landslide.

Trying to fight the media also is just too much. I hate those corrupt bastards.

Blogger The Other Robot August 05, 2016 11:26 AM  

@Tad: Around here we don't pay any attention to syphilitic fudge-packers like you.

Blogger The Other Robot August 05, 2016 11:27 AM  

@180: It could also mean they are not important to her and she needs to use her money wisely.

Why, I remember Jeb Bush spending lots of money on ads and where did that get him? Forgotten.

Anonymous Giant Jim August 05, 2016 11:31 AM  

Why, I remember Jeb Bush spending lots of money on ads and where did that get him? Forgotten.


I sincerely hope you are correct. But the general election is a much different animal than the primaries. Not sure the same rules apply.
Of course, this is an odd year period. Perhaps none of the rules of any previous elections apply.

Blogger The Other Robot August 05, 2016 11:57 AM  

@Giant Jim: Do you have a link for the claim that the DNC have stopped spending in Virginia and Colorado?

Blogger Feather Blade August 05, 2016 11:58 AM  

Sean Carnegie wrote:I finally think I’ve come up with a halfway decent idea: let’s agree we won’t sleep with anyone who is a Trump supporter. Not now, not for the next three months

Ah, the Lysistrata Gambit. Truly a classic. However, it only works if the ones you're threatening to not bed, want to bed you.

And you have to make sure your sex-strike isn't broken by scabs (or strikers pretending to be scabs).

Anonymous Giant Jim August 05, 2016 12:03 PM  

@184

Yes, here is the article about it:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/08/04/showing-growing-confidence-clinton-campaign-and-super-pac-pause-ads-in-colorado-and-virginia/

Blogger Joel C. Salomon August 05, 2016 1:06 PM  

I’m no big fan of Trump myself, but am far more concerned about Hillary. (I’ll probably vote 3rd party/protest vote if NY polls show H. with a big lead; if it becomes close I’ll vote Trump.) And I’m not going to argue that the Khan kerfuffle will blow up Trump’s campaign—that’s ridiculous. But it is an indicator that Democrats might be learning to play Trump’s game, and are effectively engaging with him on the rhetorical level.

Not the first time either. The stupid “sheriff’s star” tweet cost Trump some support among Republican-voting Jews I know. I was able to make the argument to some that it was a non-issue, but I needed a longer fact-based argument to do so: dialectic not rhetoric, if I understand the distinction correctly.

So that’s two points. Minor ones, and perhaps not yet a trend, but something of a concern.

Blogger Malcolm August 05, 2016 1:18 PM  

This is a great example of the current state, and competence, of American Journalism.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/08/05/heres-the-iranian-video-of-hostages-for-pallets-of-money-cnn-and-washington-post-claim-doesnt-exist/#more-119785

Blogger dh August 05, 2016 5:54 PM  

Favorable/unfavorable does not equal excitement.

No, but saying you are "voting against" a person is a lot more than a low-intensity support for a candidate. A big slice of Sec. Clinton voters - like almost half - are not voting "for" her, they are voting "against" Mr. Trump. That demonstrates, in my opinion, enthusiastic dislike.

Combined with the fact that well more than half the country has a negative opinion of Mr. Trump, it's just hard to see him winning any states he doesn't already have, let alone winning some sort of landslide.

We get that you think Trump is going to lose. That's fine. What's not fine is extrapolating from the polling data to reach conclusions unsupported by the evidence.
Stop being a fucktard.


I think this is fairly ironic coming from a site where most regulars are completely happy to listen to the gut. Every new low is a sure sign of the coming landslide.

It's like Charlie Sheen is running the forecasting center for you. Even getting HIV is winning!

Blogger Yvonne Lorenzo August 05, 2016 6:42 PM  

I do have one concern: manipulation of voting this November, as discussed by The Daily Bell:

http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/election-fraud-supports-hillarys-presidential-victory/

***

Fractional voting software is embedded in voting results but can reportedly be rendered invisible.

These methods provide the “directed history” that may lead to Hillary’s victory: skewed media coverage, calculated, solicited endorsements, manipulated polls and fraudulent voting."

***

I hope we can fight this.

Blogger CM August 05, 2016 11:38 PM  

Didn't read the comments... But concerning the last point -

There was also an incredibly lull after the last primary and the RNC. Everyone was thinking campaign implosion then, too. I think that's when Lewandowski was retired from the campaign.

I was thinking he was waiting til the convention to start the general run in earnest. He didn't really disappoint. It was directly after the convention that he made that Hillary/Russia/Email comment which was really well played.

I do have to say, though, that the media is very demoralizing over here. I already assume they are lying, but you and Rush call-ins give me a boost in morale. Every voter in my circle is voting Trump, so no loss coming from our end.

Anonymous Lastredoubt August 06, 2016 6:14 PM  

@ were-puppy


I saw a spry old granny leap out of a van earlier that had a MAGA bumper sticker. It was shocking to me because those are the ones I was sure are voting for Hitlery Rodan Crimeton because she got some female plumbing


There are some who- even admitting her awful handling of Benghazi - will vote for her because lady parts and "experience"

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