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Thursday, September 15, 2016

The incipient Trumpslide

I believe we are now beginning to see the signs of a preference cascade that are necessary if there is to be the predicted Trumpslide in November:
Donald Trump's lead over Hillary Clinton in the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times national tracking poll grew to nearly six percentage points on Thursday, his largest advantage since his post-convention bounce in July.

The biggest reason appears to be an increase in the likelihood of Trump supporters who say they plan to vote, combined with a drop among Clinton supporters on that question. The nominees are now roughly equal in the voting commitment of their supporters, erasing an advantage previously held by Clinton.

The poll shows Trump leading Clinton, 47%-41%.
Yes, it's just a national poll. But the state polls are showing a distinctly Trumpward direction as well.

  • Florida: CNN/ORC Trump +3
  • Florida: CNN/ORC Trump +4
  • Ohio: CNN/ORC Trump +5
  • Ohio: Bloomberg Trump +5
  • Nevada: Monmouth Trump +2 

Keep in mind that as recently as August 21, Clinton was +5 in Ohio. That is a ten-point swing in three weeks. If the trend continues, Trump won't just win, it will be a Trumpslide. I'll be interested to get dh's read on this, if he stops by the blog today, as he's more up on the state polls than I am.

Labels:

233 Comments:

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Anonymous mature craig September 15, 2016 11:37 AM  

I thought of another good campaign song for Trump...something in the way she moves...by the Beatles..you replace all the words she or her with he or him and the word lover you replace with president. ...it goes pretty well with Trump... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eSmg0HXM074

Blogger Harry Cassandra September 15, 2016 11:39 AM  

There's an InfoWars/Stone rumour that Hillary will step aside and Michelle Obama will step in. No experience at all, in anything, but the libs would come out in droves for her on Cult of Personality alone, and get their 3rd term Obama presidency. I fear it would destroy Trump's chances. Has anyone heard anything more to that effect?

Blogger Desillusionerad September 15, 2016 11:39 AM  

Barely on topic, but in regards to Pepe:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_TgERq-M5s

Is that why Pepe is racist?:)

Blogger Student in Blue September 15, 2016 11:43 AM  

Keep in mind that only Bloomberg's very recent poll(link: The Conservative Treehouse) has actually bothered with not 'adjusting' or 'smoothing' the results to match the 2012 turnout.

That 2012 turnout was something to the tune of 38(D), 31(R) and 31(I). Given how many people voted in the primaries, and voted for whom, that ratio is very, very unlikely to be correct.

Blogger dh September 15, 2016 11:43 AM  

I will be almost certainly eating my words that Trump won't win any states that he wasn't winning on August 23rd.

I have seen evidence in ad buys that Clinton is going to abandon Ohio shortly, her first state abandoned.

Trump is now polling close to where Romney ended with Republicans, which goes to show that conservatives always lie, that NeverTrump was a temporary hissy fit, and that Trump will probably perform in the same ballpark as Romney did. His main weaknesses remain in suburban women, all minorities, and urban dwellers.

I have never believed in the chance for a preference cascade, as it's without precedent in modern Presidential electoral politics.

I commented the other day that every Democrat in the country should wake up and thank Gaia or whomever for Donald Trump, because generic Republican governor, or Midwestern generic Senator would be easily beating Clinton at this point in the race.

Blogger LonestarWhacko September 15, 2016 11:45 AM  

I'm a Trumpster from the beginning. The Russians are figuring assassination. Arkancide is a real cause of death. Here's to hoping the Secret Service doesn't kill him.

Clinton et al have been the beneficiaries of a lot of "accidents".

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents September 15, 2016 11:47 AM  

Maybe its a preference cascade. Or maybe it's just Trump supporters coming out of the closet, people who previously declared "undecided" looking around and seeing that it's OK to want to MAGA.

Or maybe a lot of people have been trolling pollsters all this time. . Maybe they are all named Jared Taylor Swift, too!
That would be most excellent.

Trump 2016 for the LOLZ!

Blogger BassmanCO September 15, 2016 11:47 AM  

Harry Cassandra, see any comments from Nate in previous threads.

Ain't gonna happen. Unpess Obama some how changes the election laws overnight with an Executive Order.

Blogger BCD September 15, 2016 11:47 AM  

I'd heard noises about the CNN/ORC poll under-representing under-50 yos, but the Bloomberg poll showing an identical lead seems to give the lie to that.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 11:47 AM  

4. dh September 15, 2016 11:43 AM
because generic Republican governor ... would be easily beating Clinton at this point in the race.



right, the Repukelicants would be SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO much better off with Yeb!

got it.

Blogger James Dixon September 15, 2016 11:48 AM  

On this topic, this is the type of story that should terrify the democrats: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/why-democrats-in-western-pennsylvania-are-voting-trump/499577/

Anonymous Deplorable S E Delenda September 15, 2016 11:50 AM  

Hillary is running ads in PA claiming Trump is too extreme for Republicans and featuring denunciations by NeverTRumpers Little Lindsay Graham, Susan Collins, Willard Romney, Ben Sasse..

I laugh because that will have no effect on the Democrat Zombies and only remind PA Republicans of the effete elite GOP and why they must be chastened and disrupted.

Blogger Deplorable Gaiseric September 15, 2016 11:50 AM  

@4: Factor in the stubborn folks who are still saying Johnson in polls, but who will swing for Trump at the last minute, as well as the Bradley effect, and I think that he's already doing even better than these good news polls show.

Blogger Student in Blue September 15, 2016 11:51 AM  

@bob k. mando
right, the Repukelicants would be SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO much better off with Yeb!

Could it even be reasonably claimed that ¡Yeb! is a generic Republican governor? He's got nothing, done nothing, and doesn't even have a good face to look at.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 11:52 AM  

7. BassmanCO September 15, 2016 11:47 AM
Ain't gonna happen. Unpess Obama some how changes the election laws overnight with an Executive Order.



Michelle Obama has never been US president, thus there is no law preventing her from holding the office of POTUS for eight years.

Anonymous Difster September 15, 2016 11:53 AM  

This could all change if Hillary is defenstrated by the DNC. That seems unlikely unless Hillary has another collapse or actually dies though. I think she along with her buddy Wasserman-Schultz have too much dirt on too many people to let them get away with it.

If Hillary died, they'd put in Elizabeth Warren and get the sympathy vote. Bernie as VP to bolster it.

If they just replace her, it would probably be Joe "Benign" Biden. Kaine was chosen as VP because he's not ambitious enough or ruthless enough to supplant Hillary. No chance the DNC nominates him. Tom Udall is another possibility. He's not known to most of the country but is a loyalist.

I think the Hillary haters on the left would jump at the chance to elect just about any other Democrat.

Anonymous aegis-1080 September 15, 2016 11:55 AM  

"... because generic Republican governor, or Midwestern generic Senator would be easily beating Clinton at this point in the race."

You mean the bunch of cucks that would be apologizing in the second that the -isms came out?

I still don't know if Trump is going to win. But NeoConservativism isn't a credible alternative, the Bush presidency pretty much proved that is intellectually and morally corrupt. I mean, since the Dems are more competent at the war racket, what's the point?

"There's an InfoWars/Stone rumour that Hillary will step aside and Michelle Obama will step in."

Possibly. Obama knows if that the end of his presidency is "You're Fired", he won't get all those monuments right next to the MLK ones, that's why he's stumping for Killary. His disgusting cult also knows it, which is why they are going apeshit. On the other side, since any opposition to Killary ends up with "suicides", I suspect that nobody wants to get close and Michelle can easily try in 2020, when the old bat isn't around.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 15, 2016 11:55 AM  

Clinton can win, the Ds and their SJW shock troop must take the charges of "sexist, racist and homophobic" to 11 at the very least, human sacrifices of live or dead white straight males are not off the table.

Anonymous Dum ass September 15, 2016 11:56 AM  

generic Republican governor, or Midwestern generic Senator would be easily beating Clinton

Been there. Done that.

Blogger BassmanCO September 15, 2016 11:57 AM  

Bob K Mando, wasn't referencing Mooshell's eligibility to be president, was referencing Nate bringing up there is no LEGAL way for her to appear on most ballots.

Anonymous Credo in Unum Deum September 15, 2016 11:58 AM  

What Hillary's Concession Speech will look like...

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/93/Siege-alesia-vercingetorix-jules-cesar.jpg

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis September 15, 2016 11:58 AM  

@4

Dh I believe there have been polls showing he is polling better than average with minorities. I recognize the dangers in relying on a single poll but the LA times has black pulling almost 20% of the black vote and within my lifetime the GOP has only ever polled single digits. As for Hispanics he is getting almost a 1/3 in that same poll. Interestingly enough the only time a GOP candidate did not win the presidency within the last 30+ years, yet garnered more than 30% of the Hispanic vote, was McCain in '08. Every other time a GOP candidate had 30% of the Hispanic vote or better they won.

http://latinousa.org/2015/10/29/the-latino-vote-in-presidential-races/

I really don't think he is that weak with minorities and I would even be willing to make a friendly wager that Trump will outperform historic GOP norms for those groups.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 11:58 AM  

13. Student in Blue September 15, 2016 11:51 AM
He's got nothing, done nothing,



not true.

Yeb! has a varied litany of successes ( not least of which was being Florida's first two-term Republican gov ), including "reaching across the aisle" and working with Democrats.

Yeb! is exactly the kind of 'centrist Repukelicant' that the Rockefeller Republicans want to run every election. you know, in order to capture that all important "undecided" and "independent" vote.

Blogger Nick S September 15, 2016 11:58 AM  

Trump's going to win and the reason is simple. He has many Christians praying for him. Hillbot has Baal. Trump wins.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 15, 2016 12:00 PM  

because generic Republican governor, or Midwestern generic Senator would be easily beating Clinton at this point in the race.

And generic democratic governor or senator would be easily beating trump.

And you can't can't any closer to "generic white dude" than both vp nominees.

Blogger LonestarWhacko September 15, 2016 12:01 PM  

#10 The whole point of that article is real simple.....every person spoken to was a democrat. But they are in a fight to survive. Clinton is actually determined to kill their way of life.

Fly over country, my speckled white butt! Clinton is going to hang in because Evil doesn't fade away. It has to be destroyed.

Anonymous Deplorable S E Delenda September 15, 2016 12:02 PM  

@12 Johnson is a woefully shallow libertine statist who is willing to use government to accomplish PC ends that he frames as "liberty", i.e., if you are a baker your freedom of association is subordinated to the compulsory commerce. He has to be drawing from the left as well.

Anonymous patrick kelly September 15, 2016 12:03 PM  

@19

Yes, states decide how they choose electors, it is state law that would have to change.

Anonymous BGKB September 15, 2016 12:05 PM  

There's an InfoWars/Stone rumour that Hillary will step aside and Michelle Obama will step in. No experience at all

TRUMP would demand medical evidence Mooch has a vagina.

Cat Lady Merkel wants American style affirmative action
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/09/15/merkel-demands-german-firms-hire-unqualified-migrants-quickly/

Anonymous andon September 15, 2016 12:06 PM  

yesterday that jew statistician claimed Trump still only had 1 in 3 chance of winning and Betfair had him at 32% chance. some other sites supposedly had him as low as 10% but maybe not updated recently.

Anonymous Gen. Kong September 15, 2016 12:06 PM  

BassmanCO wrote:Harry Cassandra, see any comments from Nate in previous threads.

Ain't gonna happen. Unless Obama some how changes the election laws overnight with an Executive Order.


Just to play Devil's advocate…. and if D'Won Mocha Messiah decided to decree changes in the Banana Empire's election laws, who would be there to stop it? The blackrobes (all traitors), the military (all cucks, dindus, aztecs, aliens and traitors), the FBI (all traitors), Paul Ryan, Miss Lindsay Graham and the "opposition" party (all traitors) - in other words, the very same folks who stopped his execute amnesty for illegal invaders?? Josh (the gayest thing here) always likes to refer to Trump as a God-emperor, but he'd literally have to be one in order to do even a fraction of what some folks are hoping he'll do. The Flight 93 guy is correct: Trump is dubious shot at buying us some time for the inevitable but the only one we have.

Blogger Cicatrizatic September 15, 2016 12:09 PM  

Suffolk just came out with an Ohio poll: Trump +3

Word is that Dems are abandoning their Senate contenders in both Ohio and Florida

Blogger Student in Blue September 15, 2016 12:11 PM  

@bob k. mando
not true.

I'll defer to your judgement here, since I was operating completely on an impression of Yeb from the primary.

And yeah he'd definitely fold the first time Hillary looked at him mean.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 12:12 PM  

19. BassmanCO September 15, 2016 11:57 AM
was referencing Nate bringing up there is no LEGAL way for her to appear on most ballots.


you wouldn't be voting for Michelle.

just as you ARE NOT voting for Hillary or Donald.

you're voting for slates of Electoral College voters. states where Hillary 'wins' ( even if she's dead ), will send slates of hardcore Democrat Party operatives to the Electoral College.

do you seriously think that the hardcore Democrat Party operatives are going to fail to toe the line and throw their votes to whomever the REAL Demoncrat nominee actually is?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_%28United_States%29
"Although no elector is required by federal law to honor a pledge, there have been very few occasions when an elector voted contrary to a pledge."


the fact that the name on ballot in most states is going to be 'Hillary Clinton' is an EXTRA hurdle ( especially given the Left hand bell curve skew demonstrated by a large portion of the Democrat base ) in the general election against the Dems winning each individual state, i agree.

that is not, however, a wholly disqualifying condition.

and if ((( Wasserman-Schultz ))) and the rest of the Jews can find a substitute nominee which is acceptable to them ( first NiggerCunt president AND she's got the Anointed One Himself for an advisor? ), they certainly will slam all the support they've got behind someone like that.

Blogger dh September 15, 2016 12:12 PM  

And generic democratic governor or senator would be easily beating trump.

And you can't can't any closer to "generic white dude" than both vp nominees.


True, both Mr. Trump and Sec. Clinton are vastly unpopular. There is a reason why 15 people were trying to win the nomination, Sec. Clinton is the 2nd worst general election candidate since George McGovern. Gov. Bush was trying to scare off challengers early on because he knew he'd have his one chance the crown against Clinton.



Blogger Zach September 15, 2016 12:14 PM  

Already seeing the spin starting about how Hillary doesn't have to win Florida or Ohio to still win. Because "demographics" make her victory inevitable.

So it's "RAAACIST!" to notice that demographic changes favor one political faction over another. Unless you're busy doing a victory dance. Then it's cool, bro.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents September 15, 2016 12:16 PM  

dh
because generic Republican governor, or Midwestern generic Senator would be easily beating Clinton at this point in the race.

Right.
Scott Walker would be totally leading Hillary Rodan Robot now.

Completely feasible on name recognition alone.

Anonymous #8601 September 15, 2016 12:17 PM  

Never in doubt.

Blogger dh September 15, 2016 12:18 PM  

I really don't think he is that weak with minorities and I would even be willing to make a friendly wager that Trump will outperform historic GOP norms for those groups.

The cross-tabs on recent polls don't support that.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents September 15, 2016 12:19 PM  

Could it even be reasonably claimed that ¡Yeb! is a generic Republican governor?

Well, I dunno. Tell me more.

He's got nothing, done nothing, and doesn't even have a good face to look at.

In that case, yes. He's totally a generic GOPe governor.

Anonymous BGKB September 15, 2016 12:19 PM  

What if Mooch legally changes her name to HilLIARy Clinton after she dies? Brad Manning made the mistake of changing the wrong name to match a Clinton

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 15, 2016 12:24 PM  

Jeb! Please clap is not a generic candidate because of his surname.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis September 15, 2016 12:27 PM  

Not familiar with what you mean by cross tabs; I'm guessing that is that some sort of aggregate of multiple different polls like 538? What I do see are polls coming in with higher than historic support. For example Rasmussen just released a poll with Trump polling at 23% for Blacks.

Anonymous a_peraspera September 15, 2016 12:27 PM  

Another "Generic Republican Governor" would cause whites to sit home like they did for Dole, McCain, Romney...we'd get the same Generic Result as those losers did.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 15, 2016 12:30 PM  


Not familiar with what you mean by cross tabs; I'm guessing that is that some sort of aggregate of multiple different polls like 538?


Cross tabs are the detailed demographic breakdown of the individual poll

Blogger Robert Divinity September 15, 2016 12:31 PM  

I find Trump's near-ties in Maine and Rhode Island to be indicative of a potential major blow-out for him. If the Maine and Rhode Island poll results are correct, the map is expanding sharply against Clinton. I respect dh's opinion above but this is uncharted water since the Eighties. I can't think of a single other Republican who could have put those states into play.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 15, 2016 12:33 PM  

Perhaps another round of black rage coming soon, a 13 year old I assume was black was killed by the PoPo, BB gun found at the scene. And Ohio I think.

Anonymous a deplorable rubberducky September 15, 2016 12:37 PM  

Buckles Clinton will never agree to step aside for Michelle Obama. Never. For Michelle to get the nomination Buckles will have to die. Chelsea is the only person Buckles would even consider doing that for (and she'll reject the idea).

I see people here thinking Tim Kaine is some whimpy, moderate-style Dem. Don't be fooled, the man is a radical and very ambitious. He's to the left of Warren and Sanders. He's stinking Sandinista. Buckles would have been hard pressed to find somebody more radical than Kaine. He's just not over-the-top strident about it, he's stealthy.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist September 15, 2016 12:38 PM  

Well, my evidence is only personal and anecdotal but, it probably represents a small portion of the electorate this year.

I'm white. I'm a woman. I'm married. I'm in my 40's. I have not voted since the mid-term elections of 2006. I voted GOP and libertarian in that election. I voted for W in 2004. But after 2006, I gave up on the GOP and just stopped bothering to vote.

I didn't pay ANY attention to the primaries this year in the beginning, and didn't even know a whole lot about who was really running. This changed when my husband had the TV on during the evening of the Iowa caucuses and I saw Trump come in second. That surprised me because frankly, when I had heard he was running during the previous summer, I didn't take it seriously and thought it was a publicity stunt. So, the fact that he came in second in a GOP caucus really surprised me. So, I researched the previous summer a bit, read through some of his website material, and then, and then.... I listened to some of his speeches and thought, "Holy SH!t! A republican is actually saying this! And not running scared of CNN and the NY Times!

I was sold.

I mentioned to my husband after the NH primary when Trump won that I thought we should considering voting again and voting for Trump. He said he was thinking the same exact thing.

Funny thing is our neighbors up the road are in the exact same position. Except they last voted in 2008 and voted for Obama. They are Independents and they thought Obama would be a nice change and have been let down. They are voting for Trump.

So that is 4 Ohioans that haven't voted in the previous election who are now voting for Trump.

Is it an indication of something larger? I don't know. I DO KNOW that Ohio certainly feels like Trump country. I am confident in saying Hillary will not win this state. Whether she'll still get PA or not I don't know....

Blogger Erynne September 15, 2016 12:46 PM  

If he takes Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, what else does he have to win in order to win? Clinton is still at 288 to his 249.

Blogger James Dixon September 15, 2016 12:46 PM  

> Gov. Bush was trying to scare off challengers early on because he knew he'd have his one chance the crown against Clinton.

Clinton would have beaten Jeb like a bass drum. He'd have made Romney's totals look good. Nobody wants a third Bush.

Blogger James Dixon September 15, 2016 12:48 PM  

> If he takes Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, what else does he have to win in order to win?

He probably has to hold NC or win PA.

Blogger Noah B September 15, 2016 12:50 PM  

OT, Some subtle but good news out of Germany: after a clash between "Neo-Nazis" and "refugees," police blame the refugees for instigating the violence. Police backing the people instead of the corrupt elites is a very positive step.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3790605/Mob-100-neo-Nazis-vicious-street-fight-migrants-German-riot-police-pelted-bottles-asylum-seekers-protecting.html

Blogger Teri September 15, 2016 12:51 PM  

You might take a look at the key battleground state counties poll:

http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/

(Looks like they finally did an update)

Blogger Shimshon September 15, 2016 12:55 PM  

Undocumented Civilizationalist wrote:So that is 4 Ohioans that haven't voted in the previous election who are now voting for Trump.

All I want to know is, is your lawn bigger than Scalzi's? Can you get a picture of a Trump sign on Scalzi's lawn?

Blogger Gavin B. September 15, 2016 12:56 PM  

Another one here that hasn't voted in the last 3 presidential elections, sick and tired of voting for Globalist Corporate Elitist RINOs whose favorite activity was bending over for the left wing media, but who will be voting for Trump this election. He's not the perfect candidate and I don't even like him personally all that much, but he's the shock to the system that we need. Even if he fails to keep some of his promises he will hopefully embolden some more alt-right candidates to run in the future.

Anonymous Yay Trump September 15, 2016 12:58 PM  

@51 Trump is picking up Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and PA. Probably at least one CD in Maine and NH as well. And holding the Romney states of course.

Not sure what crosstabs dh is looking at, but many state and national polls have Trump polling in double digits with blacks and above 25% with Hispanics.

Blogger Lazarus September 15, 2016 12:58 PM  

Sorta related re Trumps opponent:

yogi-in-chief?

Clinton does yoga.

Now, search "Kundalini spontaneous Kriyas"

From a Christian perspective, this could be considered demonic possession.

Anonymous Broken Arrow September 15, 2016 12:58 PM  

There doesn't need to be a cascade preference, just Democrats not showing up like what happened to Romney. I think that may be what's going on in the latest polls.

I all know is that two months is an eternity for an election so anything can still happen at this point.

Blogger Whisker biscuit September 15, 2016 1:00 PM  

Didn't Trump set a record for turnouts in the primaries?

I'm not sure he is wildly unpopular like stated above.

Anonymous Bobby Farr September 15, 2016 1:00 PM  

@49 He looks likely to get one vote in ME and NH and NV. That gets him to 270.

The most recent polls showed him only 3-5% behind in NJ and RI, which would put him in landslide territory. It seems whites and ethnic whites are lining up except for a few diehard SWPL strongholds.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 15, 2016 1:03 PM  

Whites and ethnic whites?

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 1:04 PM  

41. Josh (the gayest thing here) September 15, 2016 12:24 PM
Jeb! Please clap is not a generic candidate because of his surname.



*in a Republican primary*, that should be an advantage over 'generic governor'. even Rush is still trying to defend Shrub and doesn't like it when Donald shit talks Shrub.

just as a $150 million war chest should be an advantage over 'generic governor'.

Yeb still managed to squander all of that.

Romney was "generic governor", how'd that work out?

McCain and Dole were "generic Senator", how'd that work out?

Shrub was riding name recognition in addition to governorship of a very large state. i wouldn't categorize him as "generic". also, people were REALLY tired of the Clintons in 2000.

the last Republican "generic governor" to win the presidency was ... Reagan? ( Bush doesn't count, he ran as sitting VP and a nominal continuation of Reagan policies ... and squandered that )

Ford never won an election for VP or POTUS.

Nixon had previously been Eisenhower's VP and had been on the national stage for over a decade, thus not "generic".

Eisenhower was riding name recognition as the engineer of VE and wasn't elected previously, thus not even remotely generic.

Hoover was Sec Commerce and Food Admin, not previously elected.

you have to go all the way back to fricking Coolidge to find someone who could plausibly be "generic governor" who successfully campaigned as a Republican. and even Cal ran as a sitting VP.

Harding would have been the last 'pure' generic Republican senator to run successfully.


dh has made a hypothesis.

excepting Reagan, it's been almost a century since the last time this hypothesis was actually successful for a Republican. and seriously, Reagan is "generic"?

i'd say the only predictive value dh's hypothesis has is ... in the negative.

Blogger Chris Mallory September 15, 2016 1:04 PM  

The Ford announcement yesterday will help push a few of the undecideds in the Rust Belt to Trump. It was like they timed it to dump even more on Clinton's bad week.

The LA Times poll has had Trump up for the past few cycles. They have been using a larger pool of Likely Voters than anyone else in the RCP average group.

Blogger Chris Mallory September 15, 2016 1:06 PM  

@61 Whites and ethnic whites?

You know the off whites who really aren't white but like to pretend to be. Like the Irish, Italians, and Portuguese. Mainly residents of the North East. Just as annoying as Yankees in most cases.

Blogger clk September 15, 2016 1:10 PM  

@4 " I commented the other day that every Democrat in the country should wake up and thank Gaia or whomever for Donald Trump, because generic Republican governor, or Midwestern generic Senator would be easily beating Clinton at this point in the race."

I think we could say this about either side --- Southpark said its best -- why do we always have to "choose between a douche and shit sandwich". Any other democratic nominee would be killing Trump, and also any of the 10 republican primary runner ups would be killing Hillary... just imagine the response if there was choice D - none of the above...

What the heck did we do as Americans to deserve this -- obviously something really bad to get to the state where the best candidates are Trump and Clinton.

Blogger James Jones September 15, 2016 1:12 PM  

Without precedent?

Trump is without precedent.

Blogger Nate September 15, 2016 1:13 PM  

Let us remain cautiously optimistic folks. Never forget that Mitt Romney curb stomped Obama in the first debate and practically had the whole thing wrapped up.

Anonymous Broken Arrow September 15, 2016 1:14 PM  

dh wrote:

I commented the other day that every Democrat in the country should wake up and thank Gaia or whomever for Donald Trump, because generic Republican governor, or Midwestern generic Senator would be easily beating Clinton at this point in the race.


It would be fools gold for Mr. Generic to win, because the GOP elite are in favor of amnesty to curry favor with Hispanic and other immigrant voters. The net effect of either Hillary or Mr. Generic after eight years on the EC would be about the same. Then Mr. Generic becomes perpetual Mr. Loser as the whites split their votes and the minorities all vote Democrat.

dh, this is also why your idea that the GOP focus on the House and Senate is a fools errand as well. Obama set the course for circumventing the legislative branch with executive orders backed by the courts. Besides, once enough immigrants come in many of these close districts will flip blue and it's all over for the legislative branches as well.

Anonymous #8601 September 15, 2016 1:15 PM  

I was hoping that the polls would continue to show in Hillary's favor right up to election day for at least a couple of reasons. First, the shocked look on everyone's faces would have been priceless. At this rate, the Trumpslide will be anti-climactic.

Secondly, I was going to wait until the last minute to set up my Trump portfolio. But it looks like the market is already beginning to price in a Trump victory.

Speaking of which, look for (((Yellen))) to be dumped by Trump at the earliest opportunity, and be replaced by a rate hawk.

Anonymous aegis-1080 September 15, 2016 1:15 PM  

Also, is hilarious to see the doubt in here when shitlibs are already discussing the best ways to kill themselves after Trump wins.

Anonymous Ezekiel Cassandros September 15, 2016 1:17 PM  

"What the heck did we do as Americans to deserve this -- obviously something really bad to get to the state where the best candidates are Trump and Clinton."

We listened to a bunch of whiners telling us we have to hold back from protecting our women and children from rape and murder, because the rape and murder is committed disproportionately by ethnic minorities, therefore actually doing our best to prevent rape and murder would disproportionately affect ethnic minorities, which is racism and therefore evil.

And so Americans said, "Being called racist? Or rape and murder? Think I'll go with option 2."

It's about damn time we repented. Trump 2016.

Blogger Tim September 15, 2016 1:18 PM  

Well, Tennessee has never been in doubt, but I believe Hillary may fail to top 30% here.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 15, 2016 1:19 PM  

@1 Harry Cassandra

Yeah and Reggie can get Harriet Myers as his VP pick.

Blogger SDaly September 15, 2016 1:20 PM  

Here is why Trump will win.
1. The republicans who didn't come out for Romney, who now support Trump, far outnumber the media-centric NeverTrumps crowd.
2. Flying under the radar, a lot of black celebrities have made favorable statements about Trump. He will get a larger share of the black vote than Romney, and will equal, at least, prior republicans' share of Hispanic votes.
3. Blue collar dems voting for him will easily push Trump over the goal.

Blogger haus frau September 15, 2016 1:21 PM  

Cruz is reportedly contemplating running as a Democrat in Hillary's place if she is forced to drop out. Oh please Lord, let this happen....praise be to kek.
http://www.usanewsinsider.com/cruz-something-happens-hillary-agree-run-democrat-trump/

Blogger Teri September 15, 2016 1:26 PM  

It's interesting how the race is framed. They talk about Trump's high unfavorables with women, but never mention Clinton's high unfavorables with men. They talk about a generic Repub beating Clinton and totally ignore the large number of people that are actually excited to vote for Trump. I keep reading about people that haven't voted recently, planning to vote for Trump. Polls track likely voters, not non-voters. These people aren't going to be showing up in any poll.

If you don't think Trump can win this thing, I'd suggest you take a look at an early stump speech and then the speech he gave the other day on his child care plan. He has this down. His recent speeches have been focused and he has learned how to modulate his voice. It's impressive.

Blogger Nate September 15, 2016 1:26 PM  

"Cruz is reportedly contemplating running as a Democrat in Hillary's place if she is forced to drop out."

You've been Onioned.

Blogger Teri September 15, 2016 1:27 PM  

Oh, and Karl Rove last night said that the size of the crowds is no indication of voter enthusiasm. That's a lucky thing for Hillary.

Anonymous Deplorable Bob September 15, 2016 1:30 PM  

Please,

A generic senator or governor wouldn't be opposing her...

They would be two-sides of the same globalist coin.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 1:31 PM  

76. Teri September 15, 2016 1:26 PM
They talk about Trump's high unfavorables with women, but never mention Clinton's high unfavorables with men.


this surprises you? that's just standard ((( media ))) bias.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 1:32 PM  

78. Teri September 15, 2016 1:27 PM
Oh, and Karl Rove last night said that the of primary votes is no indication of voter enthusiasm. That's a lucky thing for Yeb.



TFTFY

Anonymous 11B September 15, 2016 1:34 PM  

The Ford announcement yesterday will help push a few of the undecideds in the Rust Belt to Trump. It was like they timed it to dump even more on Clinton's bad week.

Yes it will. And let's hope our muhammadan friends get in another hit or two before November. That will help too.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis September 15, 2016 1:34 PM  

@ 44

Then the latest cross tabs of LATime/USC and Rasmussen disagree with DHs assessment.

Blogger Nate September 15, 2016 1:34 PM  

"If you don't think Trump can win this thing"

I don't think you understand the argument most of those doubting Trump are making.

Understand I'm not talking about the idiot never-trumpers. I'm talking about the nuts and bolts guys.

Trump basically has no organization. To the nuts and bolts guys they see no way for trump to win without a ground game. And when I say Trump has no organization... let me be specific:

In Florida Hillary has 32 field offices. Trump has 1.

In North Carolina Hillary has 29 field offices. Trump has 0.

So when the insider types follow this they see no way for Trump to win. There is no one to make calls to remind people to go vote. There is no one to help people get to the polls. There is no one to keep an eye on the other side and their dirty tricks.

The Pro Trump argument is "This is completely different and that's why its going to work.:

The anti Trump argument is "This is completely different and that's why its going to fail."

Also... remember.. the cuck GOP didn't have to do it this way. They could've gotten on board. Trump's lack of a ground game is more on them than it is on him. The GOP is sitting on the sidelines in Florida and in North Carolina and elsewhere.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 15, 2016 1:34 PM  

Speaking of which, look for (((Yellen))) to be dumped by Trump at the earliest opportunity, and be replaced by a rate hawk.

2018

Blogger VoodooJock September 15, 2016 1:34 PM  

For me at least, probably the most telling aspect of the Clinton campaign is the absence of bumperstickers on cars. Granted, the part of the country I live is fairly conservative, but a not conservative part of the state is about 50 miles north of me and I haven't seen much there either. Plenty of Bernie stickers. Plenty of Obama stickers. A number of Trump stickers as well. Since the Clinton powerbase tends to draw from the "Coexist" and "Well behaved women rarely make history" (to which I've always wanted to reply "Misbehaving women rarely make babies") side of the political spectrum, the absence of Hillary decals is rather glaring.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 15, 2016 1:39 PM  

Oh, and Karl Rove last night said that the size of the crowds is no indication of voter enthusiasm. That's a lucky thing for Hillary.

Bernie had huge crowds and lost. Ron Paul had huge crowds and lost. Howard Dean had huge crowds and lost.

Blogger James Dixon September 15, 2016 1:41 PM  

Today's Rassmussen White House watch (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch)also shows Trump taking the lead nationally:

"The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 42% support to Clinton’s 40%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson gets seven percent (7%) of the vote, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein earns two percent (2%). Another two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided."

That's within the 3% margin of error, but the first time Trump has lead in quite a while.

> Secondly, I was going to wait until the last minute to set up my Trump portfolio. But it looks like the market is already beginning to price in a Trump victory.

You should already have them picked and many of them bought. OK, here's one to look at that's still close to where we bought it: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:RAIL

Note: I am not a paid investment advisor, and that link is worth exactly what you paid for it.

Also of interest, Buchanan hits another one out of the park: http://buchanan.org/blog/last-chance-deplorables-125655

Blogger haus frau September 15, 2016 1:42 PM  

@77 "Cruz is reportedly contemplating running as a Democrat in Hillary's place if she is forced to drop out."

You've been Onioned.


That makes me so sad.

Anonymous Yay Trump September 15, 2016 1:42 PM  

Trump's ground game is out of RNC offices and private homes. He has paid staff working out of the RNC offices and volunteers working out of both. He does have people beating the bushes and going door to door, he just is working out of existing offices instead of opening new ones.

OpenID aew51183 September 15, 2016 1:43 PM  

I suggest those of you discounting the primary performance check out the series of posts on conservativetreehouse about the monster vote.

They statistically modeled republican turnout topping "obama 2008" democrat turnouts by a few million, then tested that statistical model against the primaries and it lined up.

The MSM and the polling houses continue to ignore this and continue to model their polls based on 2008 and 2012 turnout data because they're leftists.

Anonymous Yay Trump September 15, 2016 1:44 PM  

Howard Dean, Bernie and Ron were not drawing the crowds Trump is. Trump is outdrawing Obama (who drew large crowds and won).

Anonymous Supertankers of Deplorable Spartacus September 15, 2016 1:45 PM  

Has Hillary even been sighted after the rubble of the 9/11 collapse?

A new interpretation, reminds me of Lee Harvey Oswald on guitar-
https://8ch.net/file_store/73093f0a2dced18eb64568a7826a05d6f9217a79d6f0f365410cf473ba729c92.mp4

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 1:46 PM  

87. Josh (the gayest thing here) September 15, 2016 1:39 PM
Howard Dean had huge crowds and lost.


Dean lost his crowds because of, "YEAAARRRRRGGGHGHGHGHGH". THEN he lost the primary.

Ron Paul, despite his crowds, never established a plurality of votes. Trump has gotten more votes than any other Republican primary candidate. ever.

Bernie was likewise to Ron Paul.




77. Nate September 15, 2016 1:26 PM
You've been Onioned.



Snopes says it's a false Onion-type story. therefore ... it must be true?

http://www.snopes.com/ted-cruz-run-as-democrat/

Blogger pyrrhus September 15, 2016 1:47 PM  

"I commented the other day that every Democrat in the country should wake up and thank Gaia or whomever for Donald Trump, because generic Republican governor, or Midwestern generic Senator would be easily beating Clinton at this point in the race."

"Another such victory, and we are lost."

Blogger pyrrhus September 15, 2016 1:49 PM  

Howard Dean had huge crowds of college students, by providing free beer, few of whom even vote....

Anonymous Sam the Man September 15, 2016 1:52 PM  

As a long time Republican voter, whose first presidential vote was for Reagan in 1984, I have to say this is the first time since that election I have been so excited to vote for a candidate (Trump).

The entire hypotheses that folks like me would have been happy to vote for Cruz (sociopath), Graham (fag), Bush (girly man who thought he was Mexican), Kasich (democrat), Rubio (Cuban) or any of the other chaps (except possibly Walker) shows DH has very little understanding of what is occurring at the street level. Or why folks flocked to Trump, even though he was not anti-abortion, not a social conservative and completely not supported by the establishment. That is the problem that intelligent folks who like to play with spreadsheets and 2nd order regression analysis, they totally lack the "game feel". It is the same with soldiering, there are officers/NCOs who have a natural feel for leadership and those that study the guides and try to apply the rules. You can tell the difference.

Same is true with intelligence. You have all sorts of methods of estimating the foes strength, by the methods used in the early 1980s the soviet union was getting stronger. One of RR's feats was disregarding this based on "game feel". From local observations on the lowest embassy/consulate level he disregarded the CIA/DOD analysis, figuring the USSR's economy was slowly locking up. The failure of the old line intelligence community was to realize the Soviets knew what they looked at and fudged those figures to make themselves look more powerful. Having a "game feel" means you know when your models/collection scheme is no longer reflective of reality.

Fact is that this election is different and DH has missed that. Trump is the first non-politician to beat the party at its game, in its house, with a hostile press/pundit corp.......ever.

Fact is Trumps rise in the polls since July has been with without precedence. He has not spent much money. By normal rules he should have Goldwater figures, he has the press against him, much of the republican against him and except for his ability to speak through a hostile press, no major ad buys to speak of. Yet he is tending higher. Further his supporters show a lot more loyalty than the opposition, when all of the typical right wing pundits are anti Trump.

The game is different this election, much like 1932 was a phase change. No one is quite sure how, and to what extent, but all of the polling that assumes 2008 and 2012 turn outs is likely off. You can circle jerk all you want to with your spread sheets, the models are simply not working, simply because all of the old estimates that allow you to predict how folks will vote and turn out percentages are no longer valid, they are as much a wild ass guess as a scientific methods.

Does not mean Trump will win, just means the detailed analysis (which I like to do too) has a lot less validity this time.





Blogger Undocumented Pharmacist September 15, 2016 1:52 PM  

@11B
And let's hope our muhammadan friends get in another hit or two before November. That will help too.

How about taking one for the team? Why don't you blow yourself up and make it look like a terrorist attack.

Anonymous Ollie September 15, 2016 1:56 PM  

@53. Teri: I actually live in battleground county Hillsborough Florida (which is apparently now Trump country according to Axiom). People around me are roughly 2 to 1 in favor of Trump. I see about 4 times as many Trump bumper stickers on cars, and many of them are home-made. I'm actually going out and deliberately trying to get people to register and vote for Trump too. Back in the Romney election, I really didn't bother with any outreach. I think Trump might actually win this one, but I am leaving nothing to chance and treating this election like a matter of life and death.

Blogger Nate September 15, 2016 1:59 PM  

"Trump's ground game is out of RNC offices and private homes. He has paid staff working out of the RNC offices and volunteers working out of both."

Dude. I am hoping their wrong and Trump wins. But that's pure spin.

Blogger Escoffier September 15, 2016 2:00 PM  

aegis-1080 wrote: I mean, since the Dems are more competent at the war racket, what's the point?


They are? When did that happen? Did I miss a memo?

Blogger Escoffier September 15, 2016 2:05 PM  

Zach wrote:Already seeing the spin starting about how Hillary doesn't have to win Florida or Ohio to still win. Because "demographics" make her victory inevitable.

So it's "RAAACIST!" to notice that demographic changes favor one political faction over another. Unless you're busy doing a victory dance. Then it's cool, bro.


The blatant and open cogdis on that has been alternately amusing and horrifying me for a couple of decades now.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 15, 2016 2:07 PM  

@30 Gen. Kong

The Flight 93 guy is correct: Trump is dubious shot at buying us some time for the inevitable but the only one we have.
---

This, unless some unknowable divine intervention

Blogger Were-Puppy September 15, 2016 2:10 PM  

@41 Josh (the gayest thing here)
Jeb! Please clap is not a generic candidate because of his surname.
---

He wasnt even (the gayest thing there) because Linda Graham

Blogger Were-Puppy September 15, 2016 2:12 PM  

If Hillaroid or MAN-HANDs Mooch wins, then in eight years some fur wearing white barbarian will arise in Utah preaching about E. Plebnista.

Blogger Ingot9455 September 15, 2016 2:26 PM  

@103 Hillary overheating and collapsing while surrounded by solemn prayer isn't enough divine intervention for you?

Blogger J A Baker September 15, 2016 2:32 PM  

The Walking Dead season seven premiere spoilers ahead:

Rick and the gang are trapped and fighting for their lives inside a voting center as record numbers of walking dead turn out to vote for Hillary.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 15, 2016 2:32 PM  

clk wrote:Any other democratic nominee would be killing Trump, and also any of the 10 republican primary runner ups would be killing Hillary... just imagine the response if there was choice D - none of the above...
Trump is indeed fortunate in his choice of opponent. There are a very large number of people in the country who will never vote for her, and that number only goes up the more the public see of her. Sanders would have been a much stronger candidate against Trump.
And, no, none of the the other GOP candidates would have done even as well as Trump has. Cruz in particular creeps people out. Add in the devastation that would befall his support among Christians when his rampant, flagrant, preplanned serial adulteries actually got some airplay and he'd be wallowing in the low 30s.

Nobody, and I mean NOBODY actually likes Rubio. He'd have had the Cuban and the Log Cabin Republican vote sewn up and then.... nothing.

Kasich, the second most cynical, manipulative candidate this election cycle, could have carried the people who actually believe the GOP itself has any value, and idiots. The former are 10% at best, though the latter might have won it for him.

Anonymous G.A.R. Illnoise Cemetery Post No.666 September 15, 2016 2:33 PM  

Josh (the gayest thing here) wrote:

Bernie had huge crowds and lost. Ron Paul had huge crowds and lost. Howard Dean had huge crowds and lost.


Crowds don't matter. The spectral electorate vastly outnumbers any crowds. We have as many votes as the Fed has dollars - uncountable legions.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 15, 2016 2:37 PM  

Nate wrote:"Cruz is reportedly contemplating running as a Democrat in Hillary's place if she is forced to drop out."

You've been Onioned.


Perhaps. But did you think to yourself when you first read it "No, that can't be true, he'd never do that?"
It's funny because it's plausible.

Blogger James Dixon September 15, 2016 2:39 PM  

> Crowds don't matter. The spectral electorate vastly outnumbers any crowds. We have as many votes as the Fed has dollars - uncountable legions.

That and the Diebold factor are actually the only things that really have me worried in this election.

Blogger Unknown September 15, 2016 2:41 PM  

@105

If Hillary wins, the Civil War Part II will break out within 2 years.

Blogger James Dixon September 15, 2016 2:48 PM  

> If Hillary wins, the Civil War Part II will break out within 2 years.

That depends on how well she can enact her agenda. But I still say if she's well enough to live through two terms she'll refuse to leave office at the end of the second one.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 15, 2016 2:51 PM  

@57 Lazarus
From a Christian perspective, this could be considered demonic possession.
---

Relax, she's a reptilian. Or is it her Body Double that is a reptilian?

Blogger Lazarus September 15, 2016 2:53 PM  

Relax, she's a reptilian. Or is it her Body Double that is a reptilian?

Its reptiles all the way down.

Anonymous Yay Trump September 15, 2016 2:54 PM  

What's pure spin is the idea that fraud will carry Hillary to victory. Fraud is pro-active, not reactive. Dozens of new operatives aren't going to be brought in to jerry-rig votes. And plenty of the existing ones are going to sit on their hands and do nothing, since that is easier.

Blacks, who drive a lot of the fraud machines since both are heavily urban, are busy infighting about whether to even do their usual fraud-work for "the Democrat".

Anonymous #8601 September 15, 2016 2:56 PM  

113 James - If Hillary wins, the Civil War Part II will break out within 2 years.

That's not a bad reason to vote for Hillary. The Civil War is coming regardless. Might as well get it over with.

Blogger Student in Blue September 15, 2016 2:57 PM  

@bob k. mando
i'd say the only predictive value dh's hypothesis has is ... in the negative.

You're getting it mixed up, bob. dh said that even a generic Republican governor would win against Hillary, she's that bad of a candidate.

Blogger Robert Divinity September 15, 2016 2:58 PM  

if D'Won Mocha Messiah decided to decree changes in the Banana Empire's election laws, who would be there to stop it? The blackrobes (all traitors), the military (all cucks, dindus, aztecs, aliens and traitors), the FBI (all traitors), Paul Ryan, Miss Lindsay Graham and the "opposition" party (all traitors) - in other words, the very same folks who stopped his execute amnesty for illegal invaders??

Noticeably missing from the lack of roadblocks to a coup is the media. Oh, wait. We need more ghost dancers.

The only impediment to an outright occupation will be the specter of a heavily armed citizenry opposing installation of the Open Coffin Candidate despite results. Rest assured that the High Priests of the Banana Republic have crunched the numbers and know the probability of loss of their lives and property. Let's hope they are better at math when it entails their personal fortunes.

The Flight 93 guy is correct: Trump is dubious shot at buying us some time for the inevitable but the only one we have.

Time has become important because the Banana Empire has telegraphed its intention to blitzkrieg Dar Al-Harb at the first opportunity (government math allowing).

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis September 15, 2016 3:02 PM  

@97

I think your correct. Models are great until they no longer work because the fundamentals have changed. I mean you have a presidential candidate who felt compelled to call out people using the Pepe meme. Why? Because they were performing the same roll as her internet operatives but they are doing it better...and they are doing it for free.

Every politico likes to talk about Obama as the first social media president but in actuality that will be Trump.

Blogger dh September 15, 2016 3:07 PM  

> Not sure what crosstabs dh is looking at, but many state and national polls have Trump polling in double digits with blacks and above 25% with Hispanics.

Well, Romney got 6% with blacks and 27% with Hispanics. If he's actually double the black vote that would be regressing to the pre-Obama mean for the GOP and the black vote, which was reliably in the 10-14% range in modern history. Hispanic support is very bad at 25%, he really needs 40% to open up the map. Just getting what Romney got - when Romney lost - isn't going to cut it.

I was looking at the Ipos/Reuters poll which showed him cross-tabs with 0% of the black vote and 10% of the Hispanic vote.


> but never mention Clinton's high unfavorables with men. They talk about a generic Repub beating Clinton and totally ignore the large number of people that are actually excited to vote for Trump. I keep reading about people that haven't voted recently, planning to vote for Trump. Polls track likely voters, not non-voters. These people aren't going to be showing up in any poll.

There is no way around the fact that Trump and Clinton are the most unpopular candidates since McGovern. Yes, they each have some very excited followers, but that doesn't mean anything statistically. A happy voter still only gets one vote.

The common lament that Candidate X is going to open up new voters is always there. But the polls that examine likely voters ask such questions: "are you registered to vote? where is your voting place?" At less than 60 days out, if you are an eligible voter and you don't know if you are registered to vote, or where to go on election day, the chances of you actually voting are statistically very slim.

The reason why Trump's low support with suburban women gets mentioned a lot is because it's an outlier. Democrats often lose the male vote, and always lose the white-male-working-person vote. But, the GOP traditionally does very well with married suburban women. Trump is doing very poorly with married suburban women. So it's new, and it's in the news. Yes, the media is vastly against Trump, but there is still actually new news to report and this is some of it.

> Also... remember.. the cuck GOP didn't have to do it this way. They could've gotten on board. Trump's lack of a ground game is more on them than it is on him. The GOP is sitting on the sidelines in Florida and in North Carolina and elsewhere.

This is absolutely 100% true. The GOP has kept it's powder dry this time around. Yes they nominally support Trump, but Trump is basically running the first 3rd-party major party campaign in modern presidential politics. He has very little of the GOP infrastructure working for him.

Mostly it's because he refuses to play the money game. The real reason that the media, especially local media, is against Trump is because he's not spending big money on ads. Pres. Obama and Gov. Romney each spent almost a billion dollars in ads. This time around, the final number will be closer to a quarter of that. If Trump wins, it will forever change the way Presidential campaigns spend money. This is an existential threat to the buyers, the media operatives, and the traditional campaign infrastructure that's out there.

Blogger dh September 15, 2016 3:09 PM  

> They statistically modeled republican turnout topping "obama 2008" democrat turnouts by a few million, then tested that statistical model against the primaries and it lined up.

It already doesn't hold up. Massachusetts was supposedly this big Trump win - he got multiple times more vote than Hillary got in the primary. Yet, in every state based poll, he's losing to Sec. Clinton by +20 pts.

It is pure folly to try to project the general election voter base by primary results. The media and other pollsters don't do this because it's never been predictive before.

Blogger dh September 15, 2016 3:10 PM  

> Clinton would have beaten Jeb like a bass drum. He'd have made Romney's totals look good. Nobody wants a third Bush.


Agree. Bushes only chance was to dominate the primary, and then steam roll a weak Clinton. It was never a winning strategy, which is why he lost.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 15, 2016 3:11 PM  

@75 haus frau

Cruz is reportedly contemplating running as a Democrat in Hillary's place if she is forced to drop out.

---

Won't u come home, lil Cruzlim, won't U come home ? *

*TO the tune of Bill Bailey

Blogger Nate September 15, 2016 3:11 PM  

" The GOP has kept it's powder dry this time around."

there are states where the GOP has gotten behind him. Bama for example.. the GOP machine is rolling. But it doesn't matter in Bama. Bama was never in doubt.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 3:12 PM  

118. Student in Blue September 15, 2016 2:57 PM
dh said that even a generic Republican governor would win against Hillary, she's that bad of a candidate.


even a "generic" Republican has NOT WON ANYTHING SINCE HARDING.

generic Republicans are that bad of candidates that they can't beat a wheelchair bound crypto-Marxist who hires Jews on the KGB payroll to be leading members of his administration.

they can't beat fucking Jimmay Carter ( because, let's be honest, Ford was the epitome of establishment generic Cuckservative ), for God's sakes.

dh is wrong because establishment Republicans NEVER win.

no, not even against Hillary.

Hillary would be bending Yeb over and railing him, no lube, with a foot long black strapon right now.

Anonymous BGKB September 15, 2016 3:12 PM  

"Cruz is reportedly contemplating running as a Democrat in Hillary's place if she is forced to drop out." You've been Onioned.

Ted Cruz came out as trandgender today and has legally changed his name to HilLIARy Clinton.

Field offices... There is no one to make calls to remind people to go vote.

Good point TRUMP can only get the blacks smart enough to remember to vote, TRUMP has lots of volunteers.

How about taking one for the team? Why don't you blow yourself up and make it look like a terrorist attack.

Dear moslems it pains me to tell you that (((Ruth Bader Ginsburg))) has been painting pictures of Moohammad ,peace be upon him, fellating PIGS

Blogger dh September 15, 2016 3:14 PM  

> Does not mean Trump will win, just means the detailed analysis (which I like to do too) has a lot less validity this time.

I will just say, this is what everyone who ever predicts an outlier always says. This time is different. Because reasons.

I am right where I was when I started this. There aren't enough white male voters to move the needle to Trump. Whoever is running this time needs to do better than Romney in every demographic, and so far, Trump has only matched him in a few, and only exceeded him in one. He needs to win OH, PA, FL, and VA without question. There aren't enough white votes there who aren't already tied up to change anything.

Blogger Sam Lively September 15, 2016 3:15 PM  

The primaries don't predict the general, but there is some relevance in that Trump's lack of ground game then didn't stop voters from figuring out when and where to vote for him at that stage.

Anonymous Great Again September 15, 2016 3:15 PM  

Trump just issued two new policy proposals that demonstrate that he really does understand the demographic attack on Western civilization.

His child care policy promotes family friendly childcare support aimed at middle class working mothers, NOT poor mothers. He generously funds pre-tax deductions while only modestly funding tax credits. He is trying to get young middle and upper class woman with high IQ's to have more kids while not encouraging the welfare cheats to have more kids.

Likewise, he is also promoting over-the-counter birth control. Intelligent, high-time-preference people already take the steps to get birth control if they want it. By making birth control easier, it really only encourages poor, low-IQ women into obtaining birth control, which is eugenic.

Trump gets it. We need more babies with good genetics and less babies with bad genetics.

Blogger dh September 15, 2016 3:20 PM  

bob k mando--

You are honestly the stupidest person I run into on a regular basis.

> they can't beat fucking Jimmay Carter ( because, let's be honest, Ford was the epitome of establishment generic Cuckservative ), for God's sakes.

Ford couldn't beat Jimmy fucking Carter because Ford pardoned Nixon. Beginning, middle, end of story. Voters punished him because he did the wrong thing. Bringing up elections from that long ago is like reading minutes from a meeting from the deck of the Mayflower. That country is gone.

> even a "generic" Republican has NOT WON ANYTHING SINCE HARDING.

Yes, no shit, that's the whole point. If a generic Republican was going to win, this would be the time. Clinton is the 2nd worst major candidate party in over a generation. Bob Dole, McCain, Romney - any of them would be beating Clinton right now. She's that bad. She's vastly unpopular. She's widely disliked. No one trusts her. That's the point. This election is winnable by a Republican who doesn't have a punchable face and is ethically clean and good looking. I don't believe this election is winnable by Trump, who is only just marginally a worse candidate than Clinton.

Everyone knows this. This is why everyone and their friend ran in the GOP primary. They were salivating at going up against Clinton, a historically weak front-runner.

> Hillary would be bending Yeb over and railing him, no lube, with a foot long black strapon right now.

Even a busted watch is right once a day. Yes, Clinton's best case scenario was Trump followed by Jeb followed by Cruz. She's going to win the throne because GOP can't handle game theory. Jeb's best case scenario was Hillary, but even then, it wasn't a winner. He had no path to victory.



Blogger dh September 15, 2016 3:22 PM  

> The primaries don't predict the general, but there is some relevance in that Trump's lack of ground game then didn't stop voters from figuring out when and where to vote for him at that stage.

Primary voters are the most motivated voters. Obama volunteers drove almost 3 million voters to the polls in 2012. Let that sink in for a minute. His margin of victory was 5 million voters. 60% of his margin of victory game from one aspect of his ground game.

Anonymous Broken Arrow September 15, 2016 3:26 PM  

dh,

Would you say that Mr. Generic Democrat would be beating anyone the GOP nominated this year?

Blogger Escoffier September 15, 2016 3:28 PM  

clk wrote:@4
What the heck did we do as Americans to deserve this -- obviously something really bad to get to the state where the best candidates are Trump and Clinton.


Trump strikes me as a candidate from the previous century. I find it amusing when people suggest he isn't a good candidate because he isn't politiciany, isn't that a good thing?

Blogger Teri September 15, 2016 3:28 PM  

@84,
It's not true in WA state. I get emails from the head of the Trump campaign about how to call from home and when they are out knocking on doors. I can't speak to how those states you mention are organized.

@87,
And Karl Rove is still waiting for those counties in Florida to put Mitt over the top.

@121,

I'd have to see your figures for Trump and married suburban women. It's my understanding he is lowest with single young women.

Anonymous Yay Trump September 15, 2016 3:30 PM  

Reuters-Ipsos is D+10 or 12, which is higher than Obama's own numbers of D+6. That poll also has a small sample of blacks and Hispanics with even higher volatility than usual. Interesting you're using an outlier to argue that Trump's not going be able to win.

In other tracking polls Trump is at 10-20% with blacks (LAtimes, People's Pundit, etc). In several state polls (Florida, NC, and I think even OH as well) he's in double digits where crosstabs exist. And he doesn't need 40% with Hispanics, but he may well get it.

The guy is within MOE in MAINE and RHODE ISLAND, but *flappy hands* muh demographics?

Maybe. But the generic-democrat energy that might have pulled Hillary across the finish line is not there now. The D's who have to round bums up for triple voting are seriously wondering if she'll die. We'll see how things hold up the rest of the month, but Hillary's lost the argument that she's a good solid placeholder professional with independents and moderates with that collapse. And Trump's always been up with them anyway.

It's not outlier-ish to say undecideds are probably NOT breaking for Hillary and that Johnson is not going to get even 5% in the general.

Blogger The Other Robot September 15, 2016 3:31 PM  

@132: None of that matters when the GOP fields a candidate that whites and conservative voters do not like.

The enthusiasm gap has reversed this year.

Blogger Escoffier September 15, 2016 3:33 PM  

Teri wrote:. He has this down. His recent speeches have been focused and he has learned how to modulate his voice. It's impressive.

Ahem, I'm sure as a high level persuader he needed to 'learn' how to modulate his tone? Perhaps he had a carefully crafted plan and what you see as him learning is simply the next step in his evil master plan?

Anonymous Yay Trump September 15, 2016 3:34 PM  

Obama's volunteers WANTED TO SEE HIM REELECTED. Clinton's got way more paid staff because she doesn't have eager volunteers self-starting and coordinating independently, not just with the campaign.

Guess who does this cycle, though?

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 15, 2016 3:35 PM  

dh wrote:This election is winnable by a Republican who doesn't have a punchable face and is ethically clean and good looking.
Look, I'm a Scott Walker fan too, but he'snot running. Nobody else qualifies;
Cruz --oh so very punchable. My fist starts itching every time I see his smirk
Rubio --simply weak. Not ugly, not more crooked than any other pol, not even really punchable. Still would lose.
Jeb! --violates all three, ugly, punchable, crooked.
Kasich --oh, so crooked. Were he the nominee, they'd throw so much dirt at him that he'd be in prison within a year.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 3:36 PM  

123. dh September 15, 2016 3:10 PM
It was never a winning strategy, which is why he lost.



have you ever in your life watched Yeb speak?

i'll agree that, in the general, the Bush surname would do him no favors. but there is no way in hell Yeb bests Hillary in a debate.

even if she's a corpse and her best riposte is a putrefaction powered fart.

Yeb's candidacy was designed to feed the campaign ad machine ( as you've noted ) AND LOSE to Hillary.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 15, 2016 3:38 PM  

dh wrote:Obama volunteers drove almost 3 million voters to the polls in 2012. Let that sink in for a minute. His margin of victory was 5 million voters. 60% of his margin of victory game from one aspect of his ground game.
Trump voters own cars.

Blogger Escoffier September 15, 2016 3:39 PM  

Teri wrote:Oh, and Karl Rove last night said that the size of the crowds is no indication of voter enthusiasm. That's a lucky thing for Hillary.

I'm pretty sure that's why he so richly earned the sobriquet 'turd blossom.'

Blogger Escoffier September 15, 2016 3:47 PM  

Josh (the gayest thing here) wrote:Oh, and Karl Rove last night said that the size of the crowds is no indication of voter enthusiasm. That's a lucky thing for Hillary.

Bernie had huge crowds and lost. Ron Paul had huge crowds and lost. Howard Dean had huge crowds and lost.


Each one of them just incidentally was also an awful candidate, but I'm sure that's an irrelevant detail.

Anonymous Andrew E. September 15, 2016 3:48 PM  

Ricky Vaughn is right. Clinton's massive ground game will enable her to lose 50-44 instead of 51-43.

Blogger dh September 15, 2016 3:51 PM  

> Would you say that Mr. Generic Democrat would be beating anyone the GOP nominated this year?

As long as he wasn't white male, yes. Duval Patrick, for example, would be running the board.

> Trump voters own cars.

Right, the GOP doesn't need get out vote. White male voters vote at higher than other groups rates, but the number who never vote is greater than any recent margin of victory. There's also a lot of old white Republicans who don't get out to vote. Those are all lost.

Snidley, yes, the GOP has a feasible candidate problem, but there's all sorts of Reps who have been just fine. Paul Ryan would be doing very well against Clinton, for example.

> Reuters-Ipsos is D+10 or 12, which is higher than Obama's own numbers of D+6. That poll also has a small sample of blacks and Hispanics with even higher volatility than usual. Interesting you're using an outlier to argue that Trump's not going be able to win.

I don't like to use this poll for those reasons, but most pollsters don't release their cross-tabs, and Ipsos almost always does. I would be surprised if the final break down comes out to D+10%, but it's not totally unfeasible. There are a lot of I voters who always vote Republican, but claim not to be Republican.

> The guy is within MOE in MAINE and RHODE ISLAND, but *flappy hands* muh demographics?

He's in the MOE in the 1st district in Maine, which is 1 EV, and is the white est Congressional district in the region, and also, very rural. He should be winning it.

There is a 3rd party dynamic at work in RI and a few other states. I would be very surprised if any of the totals that are polling so very high actually vote that way. Is Johnson really going to get 14% of the RI vote on election day? Seems unlikely, but who knows.

Blogger dh September 15, 2016 3:52 PM  

Re: Trump and Suburban women. Read this:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/09/13/chester-county-pennsylvania-suburban-tide-against-trump/89687252/

And then realize that his child-care plan and Ivanka presence is directly tied to this problem.

Anonymous Andrew E. September 15, 2016 3:55 PM  

Gary Johnson is a joke, Stein is a weaker Nader and Hillary will just continue to look worse and worse over the next six weeks. Third parties will get a few percent of the vote like most years and Trump will gain more than Hillary from this dynamic.

Btw, I assume that Don Jr. is a confirmed shitlord around these parts, right?

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 15, 2016 3:59 PM  


Gary Johnson is a joke, Stein is a weaker Nader and Hillary will just continue to look worse and worse over the next six weeks. Third parties will get a few percent of the vote like most years and Trump will gain more than Hillary from this dynamic.


That's incorrect given the current polling: Clinton does better than Trump in 2 way polls vs 4 way polls.

Blogger Gapeseed September 15, 2016 3:59 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Gapeseed September 15, 2016 4:00 PM  

I just wonder what the margin of error is for the Dems to steal this thing. 1%? 3%? 5%? Where are the electronic voting machines? Are there going to be Republican poll watchers out in force in places such as the wards of Philadelphia to prevent massive vote fraud?

I have a suggestion for everyone on election day. Camp out with a video camera or cell phone and make sure you film everyone going in. Get close shots of faces - make sure they see you and that your shots are sufficient for identification. If you have buddies in town, have them do so at different voting locales. And then, if Trump should lose on election night due to some late votes coming in from Saint Louis, compare the videos. Center on the folks who show up at multiple polling places.

If Trump and the RNC were smart, they would establish a facial recognition database accepting uploadable video, and maybe even brag about it prior, with a suggestion that people committing voter fraud will be vigorously prosecuted. It won't stop the manipulation of electronic voting machines, of course, but the old timey voting in place of people deemed unlikely to vote could be stymied. And there lay the path, maybe, to victory.

Blogger Nate September 15, 2016 4:02 PM  

dh
I would only caution you to remember that Trump shouldn't have been able to beat Cruz in the primary. Cruz had a rockstar organization an in many places was the biggest the GOP had ever had. It was by far the techno savvy GOP organization.

And Trump beat it without one.

Now... a general election is not a primary. I get that. But we are in uncharted territory here and it behooves everyone to remember that.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 15, 2016 4:03 PM  

dh wrote:Paul Ryan would be doing very well against Clinton, for example.
Well, my die-hard conservative county won't count for anything, as even the most die-hard pro-Trumpers don't believe the state will go to Trump. Still. I can guarantee that, while Trump will pull in 75% of the vote here, Ryan would be hard-pressed to pull 40%. A great many people here, like me, would simply not cast a presidential vote, is a useless cuck like Ryan were on the ballot.
Anecdote and all that.

OpenID frankluke September 15, 2016 4:07 PM  

>Oh, and Karl Rove last night said that the size of the crowds is no indication of voter enthusiasm. That's a lucky thing for Hillary.

Karl Rove, he who turned 2000 and 2004, which should have been a Republican walk and walkback to the WH, into nailbiters.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 4:11 PM  

131. dh September 15, 2016 3:20 PM
Ford couldn't beat Jimmy fucking Carter because Ford pardoned Nixon.


Ford pardoned Nixon BECAUSE Ford was a 'generic' Republican. he was following orders. the act follows directly from the identity.

being a 'generic' Republican is also why Ford was brought in to replace Agnew.


131. dh September 15, 2016 3:20 PM
Yes, Clinton's best case scenario was Trump followed by Jeb followed by Cruz.


so the biggest money raiser AND the two largest Republican primary vote getters were ALL best case scenarios for Hillary? hotay.

and a 'generic' Republican governor( Kasich ) couldn't beat that? but was supposed to be viable in the general? hotay.

and i'm the stupid one? hotay.



131. dh September 15, 2016 3:20 PM
She's going to win the throne because GOP can't handle game theory.



a - i really don't think the 'GOP' had much to do with the choosing of Trump

b - what you're really complaining about are the GOP voters, who are sick and tired of getting fucked over by the Dem-lites in charge of the party. which, if they can't carry Trump over the line in this election, you're probably right, the GOP is done.

but so is the country.

c - as i've already demonstrated, Trump IS following the tried and true Republican formula for success initiating a new cycle of Republicans viable for the presidency.

outsider campaigns on reform, blows up establishment and lays waste in the general.

this pattern goes all the way back to TR ( although TR was starting from VP ).

this outsider is then succeeded by his 'generic' VP, who proceeds to fuck things up.

with the exception of Harding, 'generic' Republican governors/Senators haven't done anything but lose since 1900.

but, you know, the past is a country that doesn't exist any more and we can't possibly draw any inferences from history more than 20 years old.

Anonymous Great Again September 15, 2016 4:12 PM  

I'm not sure I buy the notion that any generic Republican governor could be winning right now. I can see a generic Republican getting the usual heavily-Republican states in the South and Rocky mountain region, but they'd also need to win all 4 of Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia. Wisconsin and Ohio are probable, but Florida and Virginia would be very difficult. And they'd have no other path whatsoever. A generic Republican has no shot at states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island and Colorado.

Anonymous Yay Trump September 15, 2016 4:14 PM  

No, the MOE in Maine is statewide, he's plus 10 in District 2, which is the white rural district you're mixing up, dh.

And you're trying to say the third party thing matters in, say, RI, but not in, say, CO (where Clinton is still up by a decent amount). Or OR, where Clinton can barely crack 40% with polling that heavily samples Portland, the most blue part of a supahblue state.

Trump has his work cut out for him, but the assumption that Clinton can sit back and let the machine churn out however many votes she needs is also not remotely connected to any elections in recent or distant years. Obama probably had a little fraud, but he had a lot more crossover votes and higher turnout from enthusiastic chunks of his base.

Hillary doesn't have any enthused subcategories large enough to do much for her. Trump does, and he is clearly getting more crossover support in polling than Hillary, not a sign in her favor.

It is not unlikely the Johnson vote is going to Trump, with a few sprinkles to Hillary. A lot of statewide 2-ways suggest that.

Trump is going to do significantly better than Romney with minorities and whites, if polls counting after Labor Day means anything. That would total out to a win, wouldn't it.

Blogger Robert Divinity September 15, 2016 4:21 PM  

He's in the MOE in the 1st district in Maine, which is 1 EV, and is the white est Congressional district in the region, and also, very rural. He should be winning it.

Who was the last Republican presidential nominee to carry this congressional district (Bush, '88)? What does this say? Along with tight raises in several Northeastern states? I agree with you about reliance on outliers but this isn't following patterns of the last thirty years in several states.

Anonymous Yay Trump September 15, 2016 4:23 PM  

I mean Trump is ahead or within MOE in polling that is up to D+12. The idea that we'll have a more D electorate than Chocolate Saint Obama got is just laughable. The same? Sure, ok, we'll spot you that demographic shift. But that would put Trump at, well, something like the +6 nationally he has in the USC poll. And if he's up six right now, he wins in November. With a D+6 electorate.

Anonymous #8601 September 15, 2016 4:23 PM  

Who will be getting the cement contract for the Trump wall?

Blogger Orville September 15, 2016 4:25 PM  

@152 Yes, uncharted. Everyone is looking at the old model. Trump has broken the model and has a new format and approach. He's not spending a lot of money, at least till now, on TV ads. That's dead boomer land. He's gone high tech one on one with Twitter, Youtubes, and the like. He's memematic, instead of thematic like Hillary and Cruz.

Best Tools For Men

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis September 15, 2016 4:29 PM  

At this point DH is seems it is a difference on whether your going to take the IPSOS/Rueters polling over the Rasmussen and LA Times polling which has Trump in the 20s+ for African American support and above 30% for Hispanics.

Anonymous Yay Trump September 15, 2016 4:31 PM  

dh should just read Ricky Vaughn's twitter feed, that guy is keeping up with all the polling pretty intensively, especially things like Trump's numbers with subcategories like blacks and under 30s.

Blogger James Dixon September 15, 2016 4:36 PM  

> Bob Dole, McCain, Romney - any of them would be beating Clinton right now.

Not Dole. McCain or Romney likely, but not Dole. Dole was terrible as a candidate.

> Is Johnson really going to get 14% of the RI vote on election day? Seems unlikely, but who knows.

The last time we had an election with this much of an none of the above factor, the 3rd party candidate got almost 20%. Johnson is no Perot, but he doesn't need to be.

Anonymous wEz September 15, 2016 4:40 PM  

I wouldn't say suburban women. It's mainly a single vs married issue. The majority of married women he'll carry. Non-married, he'll get destroyed 85-90% by those progressive, feminist sluts.

Blogger Chris Mallory September 15, 2016 4:40 PM  

dh wrote:White male voters vote at higher than other groups rates, but the number who never vote is greater than any recent margin of victory. There's also a lot of old white Republicans who don't get out to vote.

I am one of these old, white male voters. The last time I pulled the lever for a Republican in a presidential election was to vote for Buchanan in the 96 Primary. I don't need anyone to drive me to the polls. I own a car. Everyone I know owns a car. The only people in America who don't own cars live in nursing homes, mental health facilities, or urban cesspits. (all of these smell pretty much the same)

I worked in a field office back in 88, the only reason anyone came in was to pick up signs and bumper stickers. Something you can do now from the comfort of your own home over the interwebz.

When was the last time you even picked up the phone when a campaign called? Other than to pick up and hang up without even listening. When was the last time you opened a political e-mail rather than marking it as spam? When was the last time you read a piece of political direct mail? Mine usually ends up in the trash dumpster without even making it in the house.

Door to door campaign visits? Not gonna happen. I turned the water hose on the last group of Mormons that came to the house. But in my defense, the girls were wearing white shirts.

All the complaining about Trump's lack of a ground game is by people who are having their rice bowls broken because he isn't playing the usual insider games.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 4:42 PM  

131. dh September 15, 2016 3:20 PM
Even a busted watch is right once a day.


i prefer military time, just so i can keep my hit rate down.

Anonymous Yay Trump September 15, 2016 4:43 PM  

Again, Obama didn't get 90% of those single chicks. I swear, where is this idea that there's a huge Hillary monster vote coming from?

Blogger Cicatrizatic September 15, 2016 4:45 PM  

dh:

Actually, the latest crosstabs do show black support for Trump:

LA Times/USC - 19%
Rasmussen - 23%
Emerson - 17%
People's Pundit Daily - 13%

Let me say that personally I am skeptical that these numbers will hold - I expect he'll get around 7-10% black support in the end.

Also, you said that Trump got "multiple more times" the number of votes in the MA primary. That is wrong, Clinton got 603,784 votes and Trump 311,313.

Also, the operative analysis on crosstabs should not be to compare Trump to Romney, but to compare the margins that Obama had over Romney to the margins Clinton has over Trump. If you average the crosstabs on the Hispanic vote, they have Trump in the 20s, not far off of Romney. But Clinton is in the 50s or low 60s - her margin is about 30-35 points as opposed to Obama's 43 point margin.



Anonymous Andrew E. September 15, 2016 4:50 PM  

That's incorrect given the current polling: Clinton does better than Trump in 2 way polls vs 4 way polls.

Current polling from 1 month ago had the race a blowout for Clinton.

Johnson is a joke, everyone knows this. So the Johnson voters are really undecideds. They will break for Trump on election day because Trump will continue to look better and better (assuming decent debates) and Hillary will continue to look worse and worse.

Blogger Cicatrizatic September 15, 2016 4:57 PM  

The Gallup Party ID survey is a good predictor of the Party ID breakdown on election day. For the last 3 elections, if you take a 4-5 month average of the Party ID results in the run up to election day (Party ID results from June thru October), the margin almost exactly predicts the margin on election day. The Party ID survey taken in October is not always an accurate predictor on Party ID on election day. Based on the last few months of Gallup, it is about D+3-4 right now.

Blogger pyrrhus September 15, 2016 5:11 PM  

No poll can be relied upon for an election in which it is unwise to let people know you support one of the candidates. Nor can turnout factors be estimated in an election where groups with historically low rates have been turning out far above those rates in the primaries. My wife has worked in this area for decades, and she says the election is un-pollable by ordinary standards of accuracy.

Blogger pyrrhus September 15, 2016 5:12 PM  

@169 Whatever Trump gets, it will be well above what Bush, McCain and Romney got...

Anonymous Supertankers of Deplorable Spartacus September 15, 2016 5:14 PM  

A Hillary sighting! Maybe. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnUg9ztXWoI
Full Event: Hillary Clinton Rally in Greensboro, North Carolina (September 15, 2016)

22 min speech. She looks pretty good, and a lot like Hillary. Black woman in congress introduces.
TL;DR: commie, marxian health care, womyn, bigot, racist, disability, racist, climate change, Trump would start a war, PoC, autism, lead in Flint water, raise minimum wage, working mothers, respect your family, sick people and bad water make us strong, ends with co-opt on Trump's MAGA. No mention of white people.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 5:40 PM  

174. Supertankers of Deplorable Spartacus September 15, 2016 5:14 PM
Black woman in congress introduces.


Negro leaves stage at ~7:30.

stage is empty until 21:30, when Soltani comes out to warm the 'crowd' for Clinton. Hillary is actually at the podium before Soltani leaves.

nevertheless, you do NOT have 14 minutes of Dead Air right in the middle of a rally. Hillary's handlers are getting more deft by making it appear that the issue may have been with Soltani.

but nobody really believes that.

they held Soltani in back until they were certain that Hillary was ready to go.

which raises the question, what are the pumping Hillary full of, in order to get her capable of coming on stage? any type of amphetamine is not going to be good for a woman her age.

also, i didn't see any crowd shots. not gonna watch the whole thing, but by skimming it looks like another zero energy, no attendance crowd.

also, there's an edit just past 31:00. what did they trim out? another coughing fit?

Anonymous BGKB September 15, 2016 5:41 PM  

Again, Obama didn't get 90% of those single chicks. I swear, where is this idea that there's a huge Hillary monster vote coming from?

The voting dead

The majority of married women he'll carry. Non-married, he'll get destroyed 85-90% by those progressive, feminist sluts.

TRUMP will pull all the single gold diggers because they will hope to be his next wife when the current one ages out. It's a shame a gay guy knows more about gold digging hoes than you.

Blogger VFM #7634 September 15, 2016 5:47 PM  

I would only caution you to remember that Trump shouldn't have been able to beat Cruz in the primary. Cruz had a rockstar organization an in many places was the biggest the GOP had ever had. It was by far the techno savvy GOP organization.

And Trump beat it without one.

Now... a general election is not a primary. I get that. But we are in uncharted territory here and it behooves everyone to remember that.


@Nate
Trump is like a fringe business that sells a product that blows away the competition and never bothers advertising, while every other company out there is selling crap and have all the money in the world to blow on ads.

However, the customer base is sick and tired of the crap.

The fringe business is able to sell briskly through word of mouth, which also keeps its prices much lower than what would otherwise be expected. The big companies start to see serious hits to their bottom line, and eventually the bottom falls out.

Trump is winning because people are realizing that bringing in a million brown people every single year is completely unsustainable, and on top of that, there's the increasing push to bring Muslim "refugees" into their own hometowns where they have to live and work. And of course, people are starting to realize that those helpless Muslim "refugees" include cute little boys who will grow up to become suicide bombers, mug their sons, and pimp out their daughters.

Blogger VFM #7634 September 15, 2016 5:57 PM  

If he takes Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, what else does he have to win in order to win? Clinton is still at 288 to his 249.

Trump has momentum in all three states, and note that Romney was unable to get any of these.

OTOH, Trump is still behind in North Carolina for the moment, and Romney won there the second time. But I suspect this may simply be because polling is thinner in NC than in OH and FL.

If he does pull ahead in North Carolina and Nevada, it will get Trump to 256, but he needs 14 more electoral votes after that.

According to realclearpolitics, the next most-getable states for Trump after those two are Virginia and Colorado.

Anonymous CC September 15, 2016 5:57 PM  

A generic Republican could be doing very well right now if he had Pepe the Frog on his team who obviously has Clinton running scared...

Anonymous Bobby Farr September 15, 2016 5:58 PM  

Today's CO poll shows Trump ahead, which is a big reversal from a month ago. I think that puts Trump at 270+ based on current polls.

Blogger Nate September 15, 2016 6:02 PM  

Hillary sees her firewall right now as PA. That however is unwise.

Anonymous BGKB September 15, 2016 6:09 PM  

I didn't look at what Hilldog's doctor wrote because I knew it would be fake, I didn't think they would be making up stuff that didn't exist
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/14/hillary-clintons-nonexistent-diagnosis-no-such-condition-as-non-contagious-bacterial-pneumonia-in-icd-10/#more-121628

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis September 15, 2016 6:32 PM  

@181

Agreed, Hillary can still lose the election even if she holds PA. Going off Nate Silvers Model, which has Hillary winning, Trump would just either have to switch both NV and CO to his column or pull just VA. Both of which are more than possible outcomes.

Blogger Sam Lively September 15, 2016 6:53 PM  

Seems like he's making a hard push for Michigan too.

Makes me want to get up and move my family out of hopelessly blue California and into a salvageable state.

Any recommendations among Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada?

Anonymous mature craig September 15, 2016 7:01 PM  

I feel like the African American vote is so ripe right now to be picked by by the republicans. Africa. Americans voted republican a lot from 1870s to 1930s.there is no reason wjy the democrats should continue to have their strangle hold on the African vote.

Blogger White Knight Leo #0368 September 15, 2016 7:04 PM  

I know it won't mean much to you, VD, but you've won Ace over. He put this up a few minutes ago.

"If these fuckers have decided it's Thunderdome and laws exist simply to be broken as tactics may require, then only a schmuck continues playing by Marquis de Queensbury rules.

I used to argue against that position when commenters pushed it.

No more.

I'm done. They were right."

Blogger Mick Jagger gathers no Mosque September 15, 2016 7:09 PM  

Maine is INSANELY liberal. I go there every summer to vacation and the state is suffused with sodomite succorers and white haters although, to be fair, it does have the best lobster and crab on the planet (COLD water, baby)

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents September 15, 2016 7:10 PM  

Makes me want to get up and move my family out of hopelessly blue California and into a salvageable state.

Better do it sooner than later. Just don't decide to Californicate wherever you move to, 'kay? My friends out in Colorado don't like Californians for a reason.

Anonymous JAG September 15, 2016 7:30 PM  

Bob Dole, McCain, Romney - any of them would be beating Clinton right now. She's that bad.

This just might take the cake as the most asinine thing ever posted on here. It completely disregards that Dole, McCain, and Romney were chosen to be losers. They are the GOPe Washington Generals. Neither one would beat Clinton or any other Democrat right now. McCain laid down to Obama better than a jobber in a professional wrestling match against the world champ.

Blogger Lovekraft September 15, 2016 7:36 PM  

Things are a lot different in Canada, with our Conservative party stepping over themselves to appear 'just as inclusive and diverse as them liberals, by golly!'

So we're watching the U.S. election by proxy, hoping somehow we can put the tar to our *cough* elites. You can't imagine how stale and phony our media are.

Blogger Teri September 15, 2016 7:37 PM  

@138,

Trump is not a professional politician. He did what he needed to do to get noticed over 16 other candidates in the primaries. He needed to modulate it for the general and it looks to me like he is. I am in favor of having people in office that are not professional politicians, so I wasn't bothered by any of it.

Paul Ryan got smoked in the debates by Biden. He would cave in a heartbeat to Hillary.

Blogger Lovekraft September 15, 2016 7:41 PM  

Breitbart has been showing non-stop video of rioting 'rapefugees' for over a month now. Liveleak used to have regular videos highlighting other wonders of diversity (but have seemed to have petered out for about six months now). Youtubers like Paul Joseph Watson, Pat Condell report the latest atrocity like the weather.

These images and stories could penetrate Hillary strongholds if the right approach was made. Which is why the alt-right demonization. To frighten the curious.

Blogger VD September 15, 2016 7:46 PM  

I know it won't mean much to you, VD, but you've won Ace over.

Better late than never.

Anonymous Sagramore September 15, 2016 8:04 PM  

@54 Can you get a picture of a Trump sign on Scalzi's lawn?

With a puppy laying a deuce beside it?

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 15, 2016 8:14 PM  

188. JAG September 15, 2016 7:30 PM
McCain laid down to Obama better than a jobber in a professional wrestling match against the world champ.


Romney laid down better than McCain did. remember, Romney thrashed Obama in the first debate. and then got his mind right for the second.

Blogger Mountain Man September 15, 2016 8:48 PM  

"For me at least, probably the most telling aspect of the Clinton campaign is the absence of bumperstickers on cars."

So true!. I live in one of the most densely populated /liberal areas of the country. I have seen a total of approx. 6-8 of The Cunts bumpers stickers in the last month. The most recent was on a bloated caravan driven by an angry, fat ass geriatric bitch - who looked to be one step from the grave.. Bernie stickers - everywhere. Trump stickers - shockingly quite common.

Blogger Arthur Isaac September 15, 2016 9:00 PM  

Anyone else noticing the way polls are written about. Reading the Detroit Free Press I read that Trump has pulled to 3℅ (margin of error territory) and yet the "journalist" goes on this long excursion wondering whether Trump "can close the gap". Isn't that begging the question, what gap?

As the trailing candidate polls higher the race can only tighten for so long....

Blogger SelectaCorp September 15, 2016 9:01 PM  

The posters who put such importance on ground game and paid advertising are missing the media shift to social. The political consultants are the French High Command this cycle and sitting in the modern day equivalent of the Maginot Line waiting for frontal attacks, confident in their existing doctrines. If these things were as important as claimed, why have they had such little impact on how we got here? How can they be so critical in the General when they demonstrably not in the primary season?

Blogger Mountain Man September 15, 2016 9:21 PM  

"Hillary would be bending Yeb over and railing him, no lube, with a foot long black strapon right now."

..and Yeb ( clap please) would be saying "mas bien"
She would then fall over and no longer be coming downstairs for breakfast

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