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Monday, September 19, 2016

Trumpslide brewing


You may recall that in response to dh's citation of the state poll data pointing to an easy Hillary win this summer, I responded that it was too early to pay attention to the state polls, and that those polls only began to be relevant at least one month after the conventions. I also stated that if there was to be a Trumpslide, we would have to see the state polls start moving in Trump's direction after that time.

What is interesting is that we are now seeing precisely the sort of movement that is necessary for a Trumpslide to take place, even before the first presidential debate. Consider the way in which the following states have changed in the last month according to the Reuters polls, and remember that Reuters already tweaked their methodology once to favor Clinton.
  • Florida has swung 11 points toward Trump moving the state from solid Hillary to marginal Trump.
  • Pennsylvania has swung 5 points toward Trump moving the state from solid Hillary to "Too Close To Call."
  • Nevada has also swung 5 points toward Trump moving the state from marginal Hillary to marginal Trump.
  • South Carolina has swung 8 points toward Trump moving the state from "Too Close To Call" to solid Trump.
  • Colorado has swung 6 points toward Trump moving the state from marginal Hillary to marginal Trump.
  • Iowa has swung 11 points toward Trump moving the state from marginal Hillary to solid Trump. 
It is clear that Trump has all the momentum, even before the news of the new round of Muslim attacks in America have been taken into account. The national polls also reflect this degree of movement, as Clinton was +8 in the RCP average only five weeks ago, and will almost certainly be behind by the end of the week.

While it is far from certain that this Trumpward movement will continue at its current pace, if it does, Donald Trump will win in a landslide. I am not predicting a Trumpslide on that basis, for as you know, I already predicted one months ago. All I am pointing out is that the scenario for not only a Trump victory, but an overwhelming Trump victory, continues to remain a legitimate possibility on the basis of the current evidence.

Labels:

174 Comments:

Anonymous Takin' a Deplorable Look September 19, 2016 4:59 AM  

The musloid attacks are probably (((Globalists))) false-flags. Doesn't matter, Trump is staunchly against "invade the world,invite the world".

We are tired of fighting endless wars that don't mean a damn thing.

Blogger Phillip George September 19, 2016 5:10 AM  

Something I read at Breitbart today was that when racist/ xenophobic/ hate speech is being thrown around people will simply lie about their intentions. The Brexit vote a case in point. A secret ballot is just that. An online poll or telephone polling, supposedly anonymous, is still a one on one conversation of sorts. Why would anyone tell a pollster they are a dirty rotten shameful xenophobic racist baby eater?
Pollster: Do you intend to vote for racist protectionist anti American Trump or do you intend to vote for the First Woman Leader of an inclusive united major political party? Feel free to tell me as this is anonymous.

Above an beyond that who would trust any company running them?
Gaslighting is the technical term.

Anonymous Takin' a Deplorable Look September 19, 2016 5:11 AM  

Don't mean a damn thing for us Americans, but enrich the Pentagon/Bankstas complex is what I mean, and whatever Globalist Mafias who make their living by enriching Misery.

Not sorry if that sounds "tin-foil-hat" but what exactly was the point in killing the Taliban who wiped out opium production and Vlad Tepes the kiddy-fuckers?

Blogger Shimshon September 19, 2016 5:21 AM  

I've got $2 on Trump (no spread). I better win! I got some cheap Chinese knockoffs I want to buy before the trade barriers are enacted.

Anonymous Steve September 19, 2016 5:33 AM  

Looks like everything's coming up Trump.

It's hard to imagine what (short of an unforced catastrophic error from The Donald, such as punching a baby) events are realistically possible in the next few weeks that could help Hillary.

Even supposing she doesn't shit herself in the debates, and Trump gives a subdued performance, that still doesn't help her. Because she's electoral poison and the more voters see of that sickly, malicious old crone, the less they like her.

Many of the polls look completely out of touch with observable reality. One recent poll puts Hillary at a 9 point advantage in Pennsylvania, based on likely voters.

That would mean Trump doing significantly worse than either McCain or Romney, and Hillary winning there with a much stronger margin than Barack Obama ever did. Does this seem plausible?

I've never been to Pennsylvania and don't know anyone there. So perhaps the people of that state do indeed have a weird fetish for Miss Havisham.

But given what we know of Hillary's demonstrated appeal - which, by the evidence of the tiny crowds she draws and her humiliating book sales, appears to be somewhere between the Zika virus and a turd in a swimming pool - it's more likely the poll is completely wrong and the pollsters have no idea of what a "likely voter" in 2016 looks like.

Anonymous SciVo de Plorable September 19, 2016 5:40 AM  

Takin' a Deplorable Look wrote:Don't mean a damn thing for us Americans, but enrich the Pentagon/Bankstas complex is what I mean, and whatever Globalist Mafias who make their living by enriching Misery.

Not sorry if that sounds "tin-foil-hat" but what exactly was the point in killing the Taliban who wiped out opium production and Vlad Tepes the kiddy-fuckers?


It's harder for me to go there. But I understand how indefensible the Iraq war was. And I understand that even the reasons for Afghanistan are really pretexts, because what we did violated our morality so much -- defending boyrapers all over the place -- that there's no way it was an actually organic function.

Anonymous Takin' a Deplorable Look September 19, 2016 5:41 AM  

And I am SICK and TIRED of being told I'm a "Conspiracy Theory Whacko" over saying we went to war with the Taliban in 2001 because they shut down the Heroin Production. That's a +Trillion dollar a year black-ops production

https://www.google.com/search?q=taliban+opium+production&client=ms-android-sprint-mvno-us&prmd=nvi&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiv4-iEkJvPAhWX3oMKHfWsBQIQ_AUICSgD&biw=360&bih=511

Blogger Phillip George September 19, 2016 5:41 AM  


At Steve / @5
ps. Jim Stone, basing his results on likes/ dislikes on any youtube references to the candidates puts the actual on the ground support for Hillary/ Killary/ Illary as about 10%. ie. With Data adjustments she is hanging in there.
Like in Freakonomics, his method is sound. Polling companies sell product on the basis of a real horse race. In reality one is lame if not dead - Youtubers don't lie.

Moody's rating agency sells favourable opinions to the highest paying..

The real question is will you'all get to November? Syrian accidents pending.

Anonymous dr kill September 19, 2016 5:50 AM  

@5 - I spent my first 28 years in Bucks County, as it was transitioning from rural to suburban. The soccer moms and commuter dads are exactly as advertised. In Amerika of 2016, it is still possible to spend an entire life and never have to pay for one's foolish and dangerous ideas.

Anonymous dr kill September 19, 2016 5:51 AM  

PA is a good place to be from.

Anonymous Takin' a Deplorable Look September 19, 2016 5:53 AM  

@ SciVo

I've been reading a lot over the Original Taliban. We did some _evil shit_ after 2001. The Taliban destroyed bacha-bizhi (kiddy-fucking) AND destroyed opium production.

They were not perfect in anyway, yet they had God with them as an example of what evil is.

We allowed evil to lie to us and use us, instead of asking, "why....these folks?"

Because we destroyed suffering innocents who God showed us, we will be destroyed. And we Utterly deserve it.

Blogger Ron September 19, 2016 5:56 AM  

@Takin

God isnt interested in hurting you. He wants you to change your way for the good. Let Him decide what you deserve, you just do the best you can and ask Him for mercy.

Anonymous Takin' a Deplorable Look September 19, 2016 6:01 AM  

It's been 15 years. The Original Taliban took all the girls and boys raped for medical attention.

The Original Taliban itself was made up mostly of raped boys who turned homosexual with their comrades. They could never trust women since their own mothers sold them out after their fathers were killed.

Blogger VFM #7634 September 19, 2016 6:04 AM  

The musloid attacks are probably (((Globalists))) false-flags.

@1 Takin' a Deplorable Look
I don't really buy that. It wouldn't serve the globalists' purposes or their Kalergi plan to have muslims raising hell in Western countries and pissing off their intended hosts. I mean, consider how much TNB is screwing up things for them here stateside.

Anonymous Takin' a Deplorable Look September 19, 2016 6:06 AM  

@Ron

God judges collectively as well as individually. Look to the Sin of Sodom and Gomorrah, "their grapes of gall" (opium) "wine of asps" (absinthe).

The cities of the plain grew fat and rich drugging millions out of their minds and making them zombies slaves.

Blogger U PC BRO? September 19, 2016 6:09 AM  

I still think that only DC and HI are absolutely safe for Hillary. Fraud is her only chance now.

Anonymous Takin' a Deplorable Look September 19, 2016 6:12 AM  

@ VFM #7634

I'm not saying it's a "brand-new strategy" it's desperation. Look how OBVIOUS the Syrian airport attack was.

Blogger frigger611 September 19, 2016 6:26 AM  

I hope the Trump campaign makes ads featuring the many episodes of the old, weak, tired, sick Hilldog falling to her knees and being carried everywhere by handlers.

Paste those pictures on every billboard in America.

Beyond a landslide, Trump's Great Tumult

Anonymous Takin' a Deplorable Look September 19, 2016 6:42 AM  

Seriously.....we KNOW who profits off our pain...

Misery as Profit

Same old Children of the Lie.

Blogger VD September 19, 2016 6:48 AM  

This isn't a theology thread, morons. Seriously, what is wrong with you?

Blogger 罗臻 September 19, 2016 6:54 AM  

Axiom Strategies has their new numbers out on swing counties. Swing Counties Favor Trump.

Some of the numbers are shocking even if you expect a Trumpslide. Luzerne County, PA is 51% Democrat (I believe it is the district, not the poll sample) and Trump is +15 points. Another swing county is Washoe in Nevada, went for Obama twice, Trump is +17. These are monster numbers. Where Clinton leads, it is only by a couple of points.

I've been buying Trump on the Iowa Electronic Market. Trump is still behind there, but it's a binary option payout so the move will be large and quick if expectations shift. plus I think there's some bias towards Hillary, which in this case is a profit opportunity. Trump still about 35 cents now, I loaded up at an average of 22 cents back in August. Trump Rising: Digging into the Iowa Electronic Market

Anonymous Takin' a Deplorable Look September 19, 2016 6:55 AM  

@ VD I apologize, praise Kek!

I agree, Michigan will be a surprise swing state full of Christian Arabs and working-class Blacks who want jobs.

Blogger Sillon Bono September 19, 2016 7:01 AM  

@14 Well, something smells fishy with the whole thing.

It could be well be me seeing ghosts, however I find quite interesting the "Dressed as Arab men trying to flee", the "Arabic letter" and "the pressure cooker" as a bit too convenient. Like a round hole and a round peg standing next to each other... a bit like the logic: "Look a cigarette butt, ergo, someone smoked here!"

If I had to make a conspiracy theory I would use one of these two options:

1) Someone is trying to get Trump to re-double on anti-islamic remarks to show later it was a white-right-winger-cisgendered-male who did it and Trump jumped the gun, hence raciss.

2) Someone is trying to deflect attention from the gaffe in Syria.

Blogger Robert What? September 19, 2016 7:03 AM  

I am going to vote for Trump, but I'm not expecting any policies that decrease the number of third world savages currently in the country. I'm hoping he will at least work to decrease the number streaming in.

Anonymous Takin' a Deplorable Look September 19, 2016 7:03 AM  

Another state I've worked in might be Nebraska. Louisiana and Idaho may end up swinging Trump's way too

Blogger VFM #7634 September 19, 2016 7:09 AM  

Praise Kek indeed.

How Internet Trolls Won the 2016 Presidential Election

Anonymous SciVo de Plorable September 19, 2016 7:13 AM  

On the topic, I'm starting to be concerned that I will be proven wrong in a most awesome way. I thought Trump would do well in terms of electoral votes but just barely win the popular vote (50.1%), and that's looking like a gross underestimate.

Blogger Minecraft Chuck September 19, 2016 7:19 AM  

Not a conspiracy theory whacko. Merely mistaken. The truth is often much simpler than people like it to be. Taliban Afghanistan was home base support for Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda organized the 9/11 attacks. Yes, most members were Saudis, but the group is a legally separate (if fig leaf) entity. And we couldn't bomb Saudi Arabia for lots of reasons, and somebody had to pay. There were good reasons to take down the Taliban.

Unfortunately, just like in Iraq later, we won the war of invasion, then threw away the peace. The perfidy of the State Department knows no bounds. They decreed that we would not be an occupying force, but merely peacekeepers. You know, just like in Beirut.

Back on topic - the enTrumpening requires the heat under the frog be turned up rapidly enough for the frog to notice. I hate to say it, but the repeated, and ever more frequent muzzie attacks here and in Europe do a great job of letting the frog know the water is about to boil.

The ruling hippies can't help but push for final victory now. They have been working so had, for so long, that they want to see final victory before they die. And they want to hold the reins of all that juicy, delicious power just one time, while the still can. So they crank the heat from 4 up to 7, thinking 'The frogs won't notice the difference. They've already gotten used to the warm bath. They even like it.'

Blogger Minecraft Chuck September 19, 2016 7:24 AM  

YouTubers don't lie, but they don't necessarily vote either. And you can only like videos you bother to watch, which self-selects the audience.

But this does give me hope that the younger people are figuring out the truth (in large numbers) for the first time in generations.

You can't stop the signal.

Blogger Samuel Nock September 19, 2016 7:24 AM  

"Trumpslide brewing"

We need those shirts pronto, Vox.

Blogger Minecraft Chuck September 19, 2016 7:27 AM  

Of course, Lot couldn't find a single good man, either.

Blogger synp September 19, 2016 7:27 AM  

So now the big question is whether congress will follow. Because a president with a contrarian congress is effectively castrated.

Blogger Giovanni Dannato September 19, 2016 7:29 AM  

The root cause is Hillary did very little campaigning in August. Now she does at best one small appearance every few days while Trump is doing major events in 2-3 states a day every day. A politician that can't campaign is like a musician without fingers. Her sickness isn't going to go away so it's just going to get worse for her from here.

Blogger Uncle Silas September 19, 2016 7:32 AM  

The best political analysis now is in the Manosphere/Alt-Right - Voxday, Danger and Play, and Chateau Heartiste. If Trump wins, Stephen Bannon will remain an in-demand political operative, or perhaps he will become Trump's Press Secretary. Regardless of the outcome in November (barring a Hillary landslide), Rick Wilson and other republican consultants need to find a new line of work. Who would ever follow their advice again?

Blogger Minecraft Chuck September 19, 2016 7:33 AM  

I most humbly hope that your predictions are correct. A Trumpslide is what's needed to kick ass and clean house in the parties. It will hopefully be the wakeup call both parties have needed for generations to stop their wicked ways. Most of all, it would show that a sufficiently large portion of the populace is finally waking up, and shouting "I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it any more!"

Blogger Lazarus September 19, 2016 7:35 AM  

synp wrote:So now the big question is whether congress will follow. Because a president with a contrarian congress is effectively castrated.

Except for those pesky executive orders.

Blogger Cataline Sergius September 19, 2016 7:37 AM  

Five now in custody in relation to the NY bombings.

And no one, not even the NY Post is using the word Terrorism. You have to get all the way down to Drudge before you see the word Terror.

Blogger dc.sunsets September 19, 2016 7:43 AM  

Question: if Trump is elected in an historically overwhelming landslide will Congressional cucks like Paul Ryan get on board like obedient little trend followers or will it be necessary to sweep aside the incumbents in 2018?

Blogger Cataline Sergius September 19, 2016 7:44 AM  

First suspect has been named. Ahmed Khan, who was easily identified by his red Make America Great Again trucker hat.

Anonymous johnc September 19, 2016 7:51 AM  

Hillary isn't going to get any healthier. And the true nature of her illness will come out before election day.

I think early voting starts soon, though.

Anonymous Rolf September 19, 2016 7:53 AM  

PC makes people have to hide their true feelings. The feeling of waking up and coming out of hiding will be profound. RCP has 174 EC votes in states as toss-up. All the momentum is toward Trump.

Just anecdotal, but around the more liberal parts of the Soviet of Washington State there are a lot more Trump signs and bumper stickers than Hillary, and I'm still seeing a lot more Bernie stickers which have been left on cars than Hillary bumper-stickers. Of course, some of the anti-Hillary or pro-Trump stickers have been vandalized, but the overall enthusiasm gap seems huge; the Trump voters are hopeful that he seems to "get it", Hillary voters are voting... well, as near as I can tell because the thought of President Trump scares them.

The media is doing its level best to isolate, marginalize, stigmatize, denigrate, and minimize Trump support and supporters. Don't let the bastids grind you down!

Blogger Cinco September 19, 2016 8:05 AM  

It could be well be me seeing ghosts, however I find quite interesting the "Dressed as Arab men trying to flee", the "Arabic letter" and "the pressure cooker" as a bit too convenient. Like a round hole and a round peg standing next to each other...

No, they really are that stupid. Thank God these retards couldn't figure out how to drive a semi truck down a crowded street. #Trumpslide

Blogger Lobo Util September 19, 2016 8:06 AM  

The Clinton Global Initiative is having their big global jamboree this week. All the rent seekers, access cravers, and influence buyers will be there. Do you think Trump can use this against Hillary?

Hillary will not be going for appearances sake. I bet Trump will make it look like she is trying to hide from the folks who are buying the White House until after she is elected.

Anonymous Cantostop September 19, 2016 8:17 AM  

DC
"Question: if Trump is elected in an historically overwhelming landslide will Congressional cucks like Paul Ryan get on board like obedient little trend followers or will it be necessary to sweep aside the incumbents in 2018?"

Are you implying they might not get in line even if it's a marginal win?

Most of these people are principle-less hacks, at best, who have never had real jobs in their lives, to paraphrase Nigel Farage. If they're not completely stupid, and they can get away with it, once it's clearer that Trump may in fact win I think they'll scramble like rats to claim to be one of the people who supported it all along but just couldn't get on board before for [insert plausible reason].

I hope the vast majority are swept away no matter what.

Blogger Sillon Bono September 19, 2016 8:17 AM  

@43

I'm with you, let's hope they keep this stupid and no innocents die.

The reason why I remain cautiously suspicious is that I do not trust neither the left nor the MSM.

At this point they are capable of anything, so taking everything with a grain of salt (at least initially) doesn't seem too bad to me.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 19, 2016 8:29 AM  

Enough of this optimistic nonsense, we're rightists after all we love doooooooom and glooooom.

The Democrats are an unstoppable juggernaut of electoral doooooooom and we need to embrace the Kali Yoga or something while awaiting our dooooooom.

The Democratic coalition is a hot mess of human shit held together flimsily at that, make them fight one another.

Blogger Lovekraft September 19, 2016 8:39 AM  

I sum up NoBordersBarack's legacy by his handling of Clock Boy. Everything about it represents the state of our leaders: bending over backwards to accommodate the mischievous muslim while denigrating law-abiding citizens. Redeemable, but not going to happen. Obama is a pure egomaniac.

As for Hillary, everything about her leaves me with a feeling of disgust. Irredeemable and I hope she and her ideology get crushed. Not very merciful or compassionate, but until someone provides me with an example of her turning away from the greedy pursuit of power, this is how it is.

Anonymous Kevin September 19, 2016 8:46 AM  

Trump not matching Romney or McCain is certainly plausible -Trump is still a repulsive figure to many people. I have many friends very interested in politics that are just sitting out the election or doing write-ins. My anecdote is not data but through out the election it has been a theme that Trump is not well liked by Republicans and many might stay home. Trump has to get new voters and get them to show up- with essentially no ground game. I would say it's still an incredible up hill battle. I would have said impossible a few weeks ago but it's looking possible. However, Trump has a pattern of imploding and getting easily trolled and it has hurt his numbers before. If he lets himself get trollled near the election or in the debates it could hurt him significantly.

Anonymous krymneth September 19, 2016 8:48 AM  

There's no way this is a "false flag" attack. If it were, CNN would not be sweeping it under the rug with vigor that sclerotic organization rarely shows, they'd be hyping it 24/7. (No, they're not downplaying it to try to convince the alt-right, which numerically is still insignificant compared to "the masses".)

The left has created an atmosphere of hate, and Islam creates an atmosphere of hate, and the two things together compound. These sorts of attacks are not aberrations that require some sort of elaborate conspiracy theory explanation, they are the expected result. If there is a mystery, it's why there isn't more of them.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 19, 2016 9:02 AM  

Hillary might not make the debates. Can Trump outpoll Michelle Obama?

Anonymous mature craig September 19, 2016 9:15 AM  

Fox is treating him pretty well and fair wh is not surprising..CNN is treating him decently wh is surprisi g and i aint watching MS NBC

Anonymous FAILBOAT September 19, 2016 9:31 AM  

The debates will be make or break.

If Hillary has a 'health incident' on stage, trump calls her on it, and then she has another one, he wins.

If Hillary has a 'give me back my pen' moment a la putin's dressing down of an industrialist in Russia, and no health incident, she will likely win.

If neither of the above happens...the odds are too close to be surprised by either outcome.

Blogger Azimus September 19, 2016 9:39 AM  

What is Trump's theoretical peak support? 60%? What does a Trumpslide look like on the electoral scale? 80pt margin? 100?

Blogger dh September 19, 2016 9:39 AM  

While it is far from certain that this Trumpward movement will continue at its current pace, if it does, Donald Trump will win in a landslide. I am not predicting a Trumpslide on that basis, for as you know, I already predicted one months ago. All I am pointing out is that the scenario for not only a Trump victory, but an overwhelming Trump victory, continues to remain a legitimate possibility on the basis of the current evidence.

I've never thought a Trumpslide was a possibility, and I still don't. Even now, after his best 7-10 day stretch and with a lot of "momentum" in the race, he's still not winning the state-based EV count. If the election was today, we'd have Pres. Clinton.

After the conventions, the only possible path for a Trump EV win was a tiny scenario down at the fringe of what has ever happened before at the edges of the margin of error.

I'd put it this way, Trump has had every possible thing go right for him, and he's still not "winning" the election - Clinton got caught in a new lie, his concern-trolling about her health was validated, Syria is a bigger disaster than ever, he forced his opponent into a pathetic news conference, etc. It will take a week for the polling to catch-up, at the state level.

If Trump is going to win, it will be at the heels of a strong set of debate performances.

Florida has swung 11 points toward Trump moving the state from solid Hillary to marginal Trump.

This is by far the most troubling information for Sec. Clinton and her campaign. Florida should not be on the map. I hear Clinton ads around the clock, but Trump is dominating in-state new coverage with his in-person campaign events.

I will say, the one quality I didn't expect from Trump was that his inner circle and his own decision making seems to be way above average, and his ability to cut losses and move on quickly is very admirable. You look at some like Sec. Clinton, who has the same inner circle of advisers for years, who never told her that running a private insecure web-server in her basement was a bad idea. They all testified that no one advised her of this opinion. Smart, well educated, well experienced lawyers. In her last campaign, it took her months to fire a campaign manager who got spanked by the Obama campaign, who admitted she didn't know the rules for several states. You compare to Trump's inner circle of family and long-time friends. There's no doubt people in his circle are giving him good advice without fear of reprisals and without concern for their own personal well-being. This is a really pleasant surprise. If I had to give Pres. GW Bush a compliment, and there's not much there I admire, it was that he obviously had a real-team of advisers who worked for him in a similar manner.

That said, I still stick with my initial prediction.

Blogger dh September 19, 2016 9:40 AM  

Hillary might not make the debates. Can Trump outpoll Michelle Obama?

Honestly this is by far the stupidest line of thinking in the entire season. The Obama's and Clinton's hate each other, they always have, always will. The entire Democratic establishment is firmly in control of the Clinton's. This isn't even good fantasy.

Anonymous mature craig September 19, 2016 9:43 AM  

Hillary should hold her head up high she is handling herself with a lot of dignity and class. In my view this year is just not her year...the climate and timing is right for Trump and his vision for America

Anonymous coyote September 19, 2016 9:46 AM  

@48 Trump has MILLIONS of "new" voters- Republicans who have not voted in DECADES because the cuckservatives (new word I LOVE) sold us out to the commies decades ago. The MONSTER vote is coming- we dont answer polls, we dont talk to our cucked repub churchian friends, we WILL vote for Trump. Check the figures for republican voter registrations.

Blogger Shimshon September 19, 2016 9:48 AM  

It looks like HRC's IT guy used Reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/53hdaq/reddit_posts_by_hillarys_it_guy_proves_she/

Blogger Teri September 19, 2016 9:52 AM  

The same folks that listen to Karl Rove. These consultants don't fade away just because they lose

Blogger Elocutioner September 19, 2016 9:53 AM  

I think he did the hotel trolling in response to their petulance at him not delaying HIS political rally with thousands of people because the media was late. He didn't have room on his plane to Mexico and they cried censorship. So he mocked them and they lost their shit. As the last few weeks (year?) has shown - they can no longer set the narrative. They're thin skinned narcissists and he pwned them.

And Trump has been acting very presidential. He's been watching his language. Met with Nieto when Hillary would not. Visited Louisiana when Hillary would not. And will be meeting with Sisi.

Trump is working past the sale. Hillary is sleeping past her expiration.

Anything short of him on video doing gangland executions won't sink him now as She's. Done. Worse. Everything that's gone wrong with this country for the last 24 years can be rhetorically laid at the feet of Hillary. Since she hasn't actually accomplished anything pro-American we can ask "what did she or her husband do to prevent this?" Remember - they were a two for one deal.

And now it's so bad for them that even with their highly skewed polls he's pulled ahead. It won't be close.

Anonymous Ironsides September 19, 2016 9:54 AM  

Muslime attacks in the U.S. are the most obvious reason why importing hordes of brown, violent, aggressive people is a bad idea. It's a factor so plain and simple that even the dullest normie can grasp it, and generally does. You can find probably 10 people who think Muslimes should be kept out, for this reason, for every 1 person who will admit to honest-to-gosh white nationalism.

The government and (((media))) WANT to bring in hordes of brown people, including said Muslimes. They practically worship said Muslimes.

For these reasons, the idea that every single Muslime outbreak -- which we know is what they do -- is a government/media conspiracy is about as illogical as it gets. Why the hell would brown-worshiping, Muslime-loving, white-hating traitor scum make false flag attacks that support their ENEMIES' worldview? That would be bafflingly stupid. What the f*** would they even hope to accomplish by a false flag that makes their side look bad and the other side look right.

If they were going to false-flag, I think that pictures of blond people with swastika tattoos running away from the scene of the crime would be their style. Guys in Pepe t-shirts. You know, the people they actually hate and want to discredit.

As far as I'm concerned, every Muslime attack is a genuine Muslime attack until massively proven otherwise. And if the data is shaky, my opinion is that it doesn't say it, but it's Muslimes.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 19, 2016 9:58 AM  

The great dh has spoken, but the trial balloons are floating out there. I'll say it again there exists a possibility that Clinton stumbles so badly on national TV that the womanish think/feelz D party types flip completely from Hilldawg to Michelle. Another WAG on my part is that Bill and his gang are already negotiating the payoff to exit and endorse.

Of course no one hates a Democrat like another Democrat, they fight for the same pile of loot, Reservoir Dogs.

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd September 19, 2016 10:04 AM  

dh wrote:The Obama's and Clinton's hate each other, they always have, always will. The entire Democratic establishment is firmly in control of the Clinton's

When Hillary dies or becomes a vegetable on life support before November (that was the assumption behind the question), how is Clinton control of the DNC going to help her? 0bammy hates Clinton and vise-versa, but who are they going to have as their figurehead when the wicked witch is dead?

It doesn't matter who they wish they could run now, because it's too late to get a candidste on enough ballots, and they don't have a centerist candidate whou could take advantage of Trump's negatives, anyway. That's a disadvantage to being the party of the barking mad: credible centrists wind up on your fringe.

I guess Clinton control of the DNC is how a no-name absolute zero from Chicago stole the nomination from Hillary in 2008, right? 0bammy living in government housing since 2008 is a pretty strong argument agsinst the Clintons having absolute power over the (D) establishment.

Blogger Salt September 19, 2016 10:11 AM  

Having the Khan of Londonistan throw out the first pitch, well that'll sure enamor people to the Mets. Oh, wait... Mets are NYC. Carry on.

Blogger dh September 19, 2016 10:14 AM  

> When Hillary dies or becomes a vegetable on life support before November (that was the assumption behind the question), how is Clinton control of the DNC going to help her? 0bammy hates Clinton and vise-versa, but who are they going to have as their figurehead when the wicked witch is dead?

Dum dum, it's always been Bill. I know everyone thinks Hillary is this high-level alpha bitch trying to run the world, but it's always been Bill. Hillary has always been a distant #2 to Bill.

The entire operation is Clinton people. Clinton people hate the Obama's. If Hillary did die or step out, it would be a Hillary replacement, not an Obama replacement.

Blogger Student in Blue September 19, 2016 10:20 AM  

@dh

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're taking the polls completely at face value, right? What would it take to convince you that every poll is instead very much up to the whims of their owners, and the only reason why they wind up correct is that as it gets closer to election time, the polls stop fudging the numbers so much?

Because that should change your whole methodology with how the election probably will go.

Blogger haus frau September 19, 2016 10:31 AM  

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Blogger praetorian September 19, 2016 10:56 AM  

This is what is so goddamned enjoyable about Trump: he keeps making The Very Serious Experts lose their shit.

Inconceivable!

Praise Kek and pass the ammunition.

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 19, 2016 11:08 AM  

"If I had to give Pres. GW Bush a compliment, and there's not much there I admire, it was that he obviously had a real-team of advisers who worked for him in a similar manner."

W...T...F?!?

re the OP, if we had an amazing technology that harvested the unconscious vote of every person in this country effortlessly while they slept, then Trump would win in an astounding act of acclamation resembling near-unanimity.

But that isn't how it plays in reality. The electoral-vote-rich blue-hostage states are going to screw with voting logic to Clinton's advantage, and the ground game is going to be the most crooked thing you've ever seen in your life: massive vote fraud, voter intimidation at polling places while police shrug, and mass physical destruction of Trump votes by people who think they've been granted a magical moral license to do so because they're the folks who would travel back in time to murder Baby Hitler (not knowing enough about time travel to grok that killing Baby Hitler probably produces MEGA-HITLER!!1! instead).

What are Trump's advantages?

-- Hillary is a despised person who inspires near-zero levels of loyalty and respect; a lot of her vote is simply either gibsmedat, cucks, or love-me-I'm-a-liberal, with no real enthusiasm. If Trump didn't inspire such innate nausea in such types (but that's baked into the cake, and part of his appeal), then Hillary would lose massively through sheer lack of enthusiasm and failure-to-thrive.

-- Trump is rewriting the rules of baseball in ways that are so ground-breakingly hilarious that he could win through sheer cojones and verve. On a sheer gut level, you gotta love a guy who's running a serious presidential campaign with the tone of Robert Duvall in Apocalypse Now.

-- Turnout will be massively augmented in Trump-oriented (viz. not converged) states, but they are generally EC-vote poor; the EC-rich blue-hostage states don't need as much turnout to overwhelm the Trump vote.

-- The polls are nonsense. For every person who won't admit publicly that they support Trump, there are five who would secretly kill for him. The big question is, will these people turn up and vote? And will their vote actually be honestly registered and counted?

Hillary's big advantage is basically that she's in the Mafia and Trump is not. And speaking as a guy who grew up around our Sicilian friends, that's quite an advantage.

Anonymous Takin' a Deplorable Look September 19, 2016 11:20 AM  

"Hillary's big advantage is basically that she's in the Mafia and Trump is not. And speaking as a guy who grew up around our Sicilian friends, that's quite an advantage."

(Buzzer) Hillary is also friends with every other mafia on the planet and will make America moan like a slut as they invade her if necessary.

Trump will give the side glance to any American wise guys that act up after showing them the European invasion videos and say "fuck with me and I don't give a shit if the Albanians and Nigerians roast your kids alive and force-feed you chunks of their flesh. You get one warning, be patriotic or I unleash them all on you, capisce?"

Anonymous Andrew E. September 19, 2016 11:20 AM  

But that isn't how it plays in reality. The electoral-vote-rich blue-hostage states are going to screw with voting logic to Clinton's advantage, and the ground game is going to be the most crooked thing you've ever seen in your life: massive vote fraud, voter intimidation at polling places while police shrug, and mass physical destruction of Trump votes by people who think they've been granted a magical moral license to do so because they're the folks who would travel back in time to murder Baby Hitler

I actually don't think so. At least, it won't work. Trump is flanking this by making the sale beforehand. He will have the country already thinking he is the President going into election day. Vote fraud only works to make perception reality. But if the perception is opposite, the fraud fails.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 19, 2016 11:24 AM  

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're taking the polls completely at face value, right? What would it take to convince you that every poll is instead very much up to the whims of their owners, and the only reason why they wind up correct is that as it gets closer to election time, the polls stop fudging the numbers so much?

The primary polls were in the aggregate accurate. Why wouldn't the general polls be?

Blogger dh September 19, 2016 11:28 AM  

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're taking the polls completely at face value, right? What would it take to convince you that every poll is instead very much up to the whims of their owners, and the only reason why they wind up correct is that as it gets closer to election time, the polls stop fudging the numbers so much?

I believe the polls as a whole accurately reflect, within the margin of error and to the degree of confidence stated, the state of election as it stands during the polling period.

The fact that polls change, and that those changes mirror events, does not seem to invalidate the concept of opinion and preference polling as a mathematical and scientific enterprise.

Anonymous Gen. Kong September 19, 2016 11:29 AM  

VFM #7634 wrote:The musloid attacks are probably (((Globalists))) false-flags.

@1 Takin' a Deplorable Look

I don't really buy that. It wouldn't serve the globalists' purposes or their Kalergi plan to have muslims raising hell in Western countries and pissing off their intended hosts. I mean, consider how much TNB is screwing up things for them here stateside.


The funny thing is that regardless of whether Musloid attacks are false-flags (meaning attacks perpetrated by government agents) or simply attacks of Musloids being encouraged and whipped up by government agents in their mosques to get in touch with their inner Moohammed, there seems to be scarcely any effect on the ability of the natives to respond to them as one would hope.

Take the Bat-a-clan operation last year - a very ugly one carried out at the very height of the invasion by rapefugees. Has the flow of invaders been stopped? Has a single treasonous politician or (((bankster))) gotten to eat a bullet? No. Those who are ultimately responsible for it - the bank-appointed political "leaders" are all still in office.

All that happened were a few protests over it which featured the (((media))) taking pictures of those who expressed opposition to their upcoming planned extermination which resulted in arrests for doubleplusungood thoughts, doxing, loss of jobs, etc. I think folks fail to understand just how thoroughly things have been converged by the enemy. They're importing the foot soldiers now (most are military-age males, as has been noted) because they are confident that their control is complete enough for (((their))) final-solution to be carried out. What actual resistance is there? Too many still seem to ghost-dance about rule of law, elections and other such trappings which are now only whitewashed tombs filled with bones throughout the west.

One good thing is that level of enemy control does not appear to be consistent from place to place, and the fact that some police in Germany recently sided with the natives against the colonists is a encouraging. Even so, none of the (((genocidal alien elites))), their treasonous shabbas-goys, useful idiots and other forces arrayed to facilitate Kalergi's final-solution have backed down a whit. Record numbers of those who are targeted are waking up to the unpleasant reality but they are now doubling down hard. Any notion that YT can vote his way out of this is foolhardy. The most it can do is buy time to organize a real overthrow of the enemy - which is of course what needs to be done. Too many remain intoxicated by the years of lies they've imbibed.

Anonymous BGKB September 19, 2016 11:30 AM  

Trump has had every possible thing go right for him, and he's still not "winning" the election -

Clinton can't get 2 dozen people to show up at a rally in Pittsburg, scalpers sell free TRUMP tickets for $200 outside packed stadiums

The Taliban destroyed bacha-bizhi (kiddy-fucking) AND destroyed opium production.

I thought they taxed lorry loads of opium and claimed it is zakat. We know why Anderson Cooper likes moslem nations.

mean, consider how much TNB is screwing up things for them here stateside.

TNB has always been bad, Soros supporting it makes white people notice.

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 19, 2016 11:32 AM  

"The primary polls were in the aggregate accurate. Why wouldn't the general polls be?"

Because the primary polls were conservatards talking to conservatards, and libtards talking to libtards. The general polls are libtards talking down to everybody.

That's why there's an alt-right.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 19, 2016 11:36 AM  

Because the primary polls were conservatards talking to conservatards, and libtards talking to libtards. The general polls are libtards talking down to everybody.

That doesn't even make sense

Blogger dh September 19, 2016 11:36 AM  

-- The polls are nonsense. For every person who won't admit publicly that they support Trump, there are five who would secretly kill for him. The big question is, will these people turn up and vote? And will their vote actually be honestly registered and counted?

Just so you know: this is literally what every losing candidate for President always claims, right up until the day of the election.

Romney:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/romney-says-silent-majority-will-turn-out-today/438588/

McCain:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/mccain-confident-as-he-pushes-pennsylvania-victory-plan/

Kerry:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/on_the_trail/2004/10/kerrys_poll_position.html

Gore:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/gore-confident-of-the-outcome-despite-predictions-1.1112858


It's always the same thing: the polls are wrong, I have lots of hidden voters the polls don't pickup, you'll see that I am going to win.

You have a classic case of confirmation bias.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 19, 2016 11:37 AM  

Just so you know: this is literally what every losing candidate for President always claims, right up until the day of the election.

But this time it's different. Unless that's also what they always claimed.

The primary polls did not show a massive reserve of hidden trump voters.

Blogger dh September 19, 2016 11:40 AM  

Clinton can't get 2 dozen people to show up at a rally in Pittsburg, scalpers sell free TRUMP tickets for $200 outside packed stadiums

Watch this packed, standing-room only McCain/Palin rally 3 weeks before the 2004 election. As you will see, President and Vice President McCain REALLY PACKED THEM IN, right before winning election on the backs of millions of voters who had never voted before and were missed by the polls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndaIK5T3Y00

Oh, right, none of that happened. Instead, the age old coalition of Democratic voters turned out in numbers, and carried Obama right over the silent majority, by several millions of votes.

Blogger praetorian September 19, 2016 11:40 AM  

The fact that polls change, and that those changes mirror events, does not seem to invalidate the concept of opinion and preference polling as a mathematical and scientific enterprise.

See, this is the bait-and-switch: polls just before an election are pretty accurate (only pretty, see brexit) but poll-fags use the state of polling months in advance to declare "X has no chance, science declares." If and when the Trumpensliden happens, poll-fags will be pointing to the poll taken the week before and saying "See, polling is very scientific and we all knew Trump was going to win."

The betting market guys do the same thing.

Just stop being a fag and say it: Trumps chances have improved a bunch. It looks like a 50/50 race right now.

Blogger dh September 19, 2016 11:41 AM  

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Blogger dh September 19, 2016 11:42 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger dh September 19, 2016 11:42 AM  

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Blogger dh September 19, 2016 11:42 AM  

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Blogger dh September 19, 2016 11:50 AM  

pratorian--

I said it before, sorry, happy to repeat when it looks like I will be wrong:
https://voxday.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-incipient-trumpslide.html#c5582402841645869152

Recap: Trump is now, at about 50 days out, at the same place Romney ended. The state based polling shows him swinging several states from the solid Democratic to toss-up or lean Republican. This is no small achievement.

but poll-fags use the state of polling months in advance to declare "X has no chance, science declares."

Actually, what was said and you can see the quotes itself, is that the data indicates a very narrow path for Trump victory, a path that has never been followed by a winning Presidential candidate.

I stand by that, it remains true, despite the best possible turn of events if the election was today Mr. Trump would lose.

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 19, 2016 11:53 AM  

"-- The polls are nonsense.
Just so you know: this is literally what every losing candidate for President always claims, right up until the day of the election."

I didn't say that the fact that the polls are nonsense (and they are) means that Trump would win; I think Hillary stands a very strong chance of winning through a combination of envy, fraud, deceit, and stoked-up hatred, which is how the Dems usually win.

I simply noted that the polls are not a good indicator of the national mood, because everybody who's pissed off doesn't vote, and even the ones who do vote often live in a state where in EC terms their vote is negated.

Not a losing vote, but a negated one.


"That doesn't even make sense"

I think what you meant to say was, That doesn't make sense TO YOU.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 19, 2016 11:55 AM  

Just stop being a fag and say it: Trumps chances have improved a bunch. It looks like a 50/50 race right now.

They've definitely improved. That's obvious.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 19, 2016 11:56 AM  

I think what you meant to say was, That doesn't make sense TO YOU.

Correct. Do you mind fleshing it out and explaining it to me?

Anonymous Andrew E. September 19, 2016 11:57 AM  

I like how it's also the poll people who say, "Seriously, both candidates are the most disliked in history and that's never happened before. This election really is different from all the others in this way."

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 19, 2016 11:58 AM  

Hunter at Occidental Dissent posts a daily recap of polls, it more or less agrees with Vox and away from dh's take.

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 19, 2016 12:01 PM  

"Do you mind fleshing it out and explaining it to me?"

Sure. But I think it might be helpful (or, to put it differently, more efficient) if you first explained how it didn't make sense to you, then I'd know what the parameters were for making a decent explanation that did make sense for you.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 19, 2016 12:02 PM  

I think GOP turnout is the key and I believe that McCain especially and Romney did not match GWB's turnout, I could be wrong too lazy to look up numbers.

Where Trump lacks it seems is with the white college "educated" cubicle drones whose life revolves around their money and social respectability. FTR I think Trump can overcome both concerns and become more trusted about money and more socially respectable than Hillary.

Anonymous Andrew E. September 19, 2016 12:04 PM  

I'm not sure what the reason is to get worked up over dh's view. He's already had to make a major revision, to his credit, from 4 weeks ago. He'll just end up having to do the same again in another 4 weeks. Not a big deal.

Blogger Aeoli Pera September 19, 2016 12:13 PM  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18jHkYrsdE0

Anonymous dh September 19, 2016 12:14 PM  

Where Trump lacks it seems is with the white college "educated" cubicle drones whose life revolves around their money and social respectability.

This is literally Trump's biggest demographic problem. White, college-educated, urban and suburban dwellers. They are breaking harder than anyone for Clinton. Esp. the women.

I don't think Trump will win, but I have also said repeatedly that there won't be another chance for Republican to win anytime soon if they don't take it now. I really think that 2004 was the last real solid chance that a Republican had (and Bush did win).

Anonymous BGKB September 19, 2016 12:19 PM  

Oh, right, none of that happened. Instead, the age old coalition of Democratic voters turned out in numbers, and carried

TRUMP is packing in voters multiple times a week even in liberal land.

The musloid attacks are probably (((Globalists))) false-flags.

Yesterday all the faggots were saying that it was a republican who did the NY NJ MOA attacks I had to explain moslems vote democrat for more free stuff. There were even false Fag claims it was done by a gay republican. http://www.towleroad.com/2016/09/chelsea-bomber/ "NYPD Vetting Tumblr Page Claiming to Be ‘Manifesto’ of Chelsea Bomber"

but they are generally EC-vote poor; the EC-rich blue-hostage states don't need as much turnout to overwhelm the Trump vote.

Rotten boroughs, the illegal aliens that get counted in the census give CA more electoral votes from illegal aliens alone than 4 nearby states have total.

It doesn't matter who they wish they could run now, because it's too late to get a candidste on enough ballots, and they don't have a centrist

Biden will legally change his name to HilLIARy Rotherham Clinton to be the first TRANS president

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 19, 2016 12:20 PM  

About social respectability Trump knows more about selling it than the entire D party establishment who have inherited it and coast off of that inheritance.

Once Trump cracks Hillary's social respectability advantage he will run the board because SR is always and I mean always microns thick. We are dealing with the feminine mind and who but who is master of the seduction? Trump

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 19, 2016 12:42 PM  

One thing we can do to remove the SR from the Left is to remove the white liberal PC filters thru which information is relayed to the masses.

Such as having Jesimin do the speaking for the colored people of scifi instead of the Scalzis and Haydens scolding us in the name of the PoC

Why have Anderson Cooper and other white liberals lecture us on the "Religion of Peace?" Out with the white liberals in with the thin skinned coloreds (even Obama is thin skinned and tempermental), and they would be easy to goad into over reaction.

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 19, 2016 12:45 PM  

I honestly don't know how this thing will turn out, to me it's a contest between Trump's underground popularity and Hitlery's ruthless criminality and crookedly-won demographic numbers, who will win? I can't tell.

But like I keep saying, even if Trump loses (D.N.), he is the start of something, not the end of something. But a Hitlery win will be the start of an honest-to-God civil war.

A guy who runs a highly serious presidential campaign while somehow not always looking quite serious, and who annihilated his well-funded and well-scripted rivals, who gets serious political clout off Twitter and Pepe the Frog? The Iron Law of American presidential politics is that Bugs Bunny always defeats Elmer Fudd, and I think in this situation we can see who is who.

All the pointy-heads want to look down in disdain, but despite their stoooopid degrees in Semiotic Theory, they don't recognize actual semiotics when they see it. (Hell, I learned semiotics on the side, as a hobby, while I really studied Real Things, but all the girls I bedded were, y'know, semiotics majors.)

This is just gonna get weirder and weirder. I'm predicting Hillary has an actual stroke onstage at the debates after Donald pokes her too hard, and then the Dems try to illegally squinch Michelle O. onto the ballot instead, and chaos ensues. All hail Kek!

koax koax koax

shantih shantih shantih



Anonymous Yay Trump September 19, 2016 12:46 PM  

So Trump's getting 15-20% of the black vote in polling and 30-40% of the Hispanic vote and 40-50% of the "other" vote (all better numbers than Romney). Even with lower college-educated white performance, Trump wins with the improvements in other demographics and roughly similar white turnout (though it appears his white turnout will be higher than Romney's or McCain's).

Trump also is doing close to Reagan-level numbers with men, while Hillary is not quite at Obama level numbers with women consistently.

As for the fraud fears, the people aren't there. There's flapping in places like the Washington Post about lack of bodies to hassle minorities into voting for "the Democrat". Hillary is too arrogant to do what Obama did and is believing endless TV and radio ads plus a compliant press will win things for her. She doesn't have the same volunteer base and can't get it now.

She was never inevitable, and still isn't.

Blogger praetorian September 19, 2016 12:50 PM  

Actually, what was said and you can see the quotes itself, is that the data indicates a very narrow path for Trump victory, a path that has never been followed by a winning Presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, haji specials are going off in NYC.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 19, 2016 12:50 PM  

53. dh September 19, 2016 9:39 AM
Even now, after his best 7-10 day stretch and with a lot of "momentum" in the race, he's still not winning the state-based EV count. If the election was today, we'd have Pres. Clinton.



depends on where you look.

Reuters/Ipsos is now showing Trump leading in EV but trailing in popular, Hillary 242 vs Trump 243:
http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/

any projection is, of course, constrained by it's assumptions.

Anonymous a deplorable rubberducky September 19, 2016 12:52 PM  

I have been thinking of this election as a paradigm shift election. So I have been comparing it to the 1980 election. I predicted based on it that Hillary would be strongly in the lead up until October, and then overcome by the Trumpslide momentum into a blowout victory for Trump.

Looks like the start of the Trumpslide is a little ahead of schedule.

OpenID aew51183 September 19, 2016 12:52 PM  

@51

The "Debates" are likely to be more of a farce than the Romney debates.
"NeverTrump" stacked the debate committee with their people, and it's coming out all members of the "bipartisan" committee setting these debates are Hillary donors.

http://archive.is/X1jRi

Anonymous FP September 19, 2016 12:55 PM  

@78

"Oh, right, none of that happened. Instead, the age old coalition of Democratic voters turned out in numbers, and carried Obama right over the silent majority, by several millions of votes."

Dh, you're ignoring that McCain/Palin was at the end of Dubya and McCain's campaign was a joke, especially after his muzzled his attack dog in Palin and the banker bailout. Oh, and the whole "first black president" thing.

What is happening 8 years later? The same thing, just the parties swapped. People are tired of Obama's America, but many are still scared to say so because raciss. You have eight more years of general government incompetence to enrage people. The first woman president thing isn't as powerful now with Hillary.

Anonymous Yay Trump September 19, 2016 1:01 PM  

Anyway the election isn't being held today. It's mostly not being held until October (early voting in most of the places that allow it). In the few places where it's already started, Republican registrations were up. And the D advantage with early voting requires tons of people Hillary doesn't have.

Her structural advantages as a D are not as strong as they were for the D that people liked and wanted to support. So she doesn't have a +5 fraud saving throw or turnout throw.


Anonymous Down and Out in... September 19, 2016 1:02 PM  

"NeverTrump" stacked the debate committee"

What I think is so hilarious is that all these "NeverTrump" retards don't understand that, that was the best free PR they could have handed him, because at this point every body viciously hates guys like Sam Donaldson who said "It's not your country any more." Please, Diane Sawyer, make more donations and appeals.

HILLARY 2016! Let's finish destroying America!

HILLARY 2016! We all know it's going to be civil war, so let's get it started already!

OpenID aew51183 September 19, 2016 1:06 PM  

"This is literally Trump's biggest demographic problem. White, college-educated, urban and suburban dwellers."

I'm not buying it. The women I can see, but I live in the middle of these people on the edge of SJW central and the mood is a quiet "Make America Great Again". Absolutely zero hillary enthusiasm.

Anonymous BGKB September 19, 2016 1:13 PM  

TRUMP should hammer this https://mishtalk.com/2016/09/16/allegations-of-fraud-surface-over-one-time-donations-to-hillary-that-occur-repeatedly/

HilLIARy overcharging the little people.

Blogger 罗臻 September 19, 2016 1:13 PM  

Trump is up to 37.8 cents right now in the IEM Winner Take All market, rising along with the polls.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2016 1:19 PM  

dh wrote:Oh, right, none of that happened. Instead, the age old coalition of Democratic voters turned out in numbers, and carried Obama right over the silent majority, by several millions of votes.
Yes, McCainw as able to draw large crowds in 2008, sorta like Trump does now. Except Trump is drawing them 5-8 times a week. The difference is that in 2008, Obama was able to draw 100,000 people to a rally. Hillary's team as a matter of policy refuses to release attendance figures, but it's fairly obvious she is hard put to draw even 5000. If it weren't for Dem operatives and the media, some of her events would have to be cancelled. My favorite is her keynote at the Baptist convention a couple of weeks ago, where some 20K people left the room before her speech, as they had better things to do, leaving only a couple of k who were wandering the event hall and talking to each other rather than listening to her. Just about nobody cared that she was there.

It may well be that enthusiasm doesn't make a difference, but the 2008 election is the wrong example to use. Virtually nobody outside the GOP operative class was enthused about McCain, although Palin was (and still is) very popular with a large number of Republicans. Millions of people who normally vote GOP voted for Obama to prove to themselves, their friends and coworkers that they aren't raaaaaaciss.

Anonymous Andrew E. September 19, 2016 1:20 PM  

Btw, the Saturday night bomb went off about 1.5 long NYC blocks from I live. I heard it go off, extremely loud, but didn't know what it was at the time. It actually detonated right next to the building (providing services for the blind) where I vote.

The bomb has a few SWPLs in my office wondering what the hell Clinton/Obama are doing with their terminal denial of the real problem (non-discrimination, Islam). Of course, I've been working on them for a while now to red pill them (both male and female). Perhaps this is what will finally do it.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2016 1:22 PM  

sorry, wrong numbers on the Baptist convention. It was 5000 people there, officially 3000 attended her speech, but from the photographs, I'd estimate 1000-1500 actually stuck around.

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents September 19, 2016 1:25 PM  

dh
This is literally Trump's biggest demographic problem. White, college-educated, urban and suburban dwellers. They are breaking harder than anyone for Clinton. Esp. the women.

The white urbanites are voting their perceived economic interests, and women's in-group preference is well known. If Clinton wins then Kaine will most likely be President within the first year or so.

Kaine is hard left. Either way, it's 4 more years of Obama with maybe a different flavoring. That means more looting of the middle class by the upper class. When they are wrung dry, it will be the turn of the next rung up.

The suburban /urban whites who vote for Clinton are voting for their own destruction.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr September 19, 2016 1:30 PM  

I think the state to watch is Pennsylvania. For twenty years, the Presidency has been decided by Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Carry any two, and you're in the Oval Office. Trump is working the lower-middle-class voters the Democrats abandoned hard.

And if this works, he can carry PA...and since PA is about 1.5% more Democrat than Ohio and 3% more Democrat than Florida, he's got those, too.

As for the debates, Trump needs to just look and sound Presidential. Serious, knowledgable, and cheerful. Like Reagan. And Trump has proven himself a quick study.

Anonymous Joe Blowe September 19, 2016 1:32 PM  

Minecraft Chuck wrote:Al Qaeda organized the 9/11 attacks.

Israel did 9/11.

https://ehpg.wordpress.com/israel-did-911/

Minecraft Chuck wrote:Unfortunately, just like in Iraq later, we won the war of invasion, then threw away the peace.

"Peace" was not the objective. The goal was to remove Iraq as strategic threat to Israel which meant PERMANENTLY destroying is as a unified, modern, secular nation state. The goal in Afghanistan was to restore the lucrative (for the CIA and (((Banksters)))) opium trade and to secure mineral deposits for Chinese conglomerates.

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey September 19, 2016 1:35 PM  

Speaking of "tinfoil hat" and opium production, you might want to look into the coordinated promotion of opioid prescription for chronic pain in the late 1990s. "Coordinated" as in medical journals, regular media, continuing medical education, the Joint Commission o Hospital Accreditation, "independent" groups purporting to represent patients with undertreated pain, etc., all with the same message: "Opioids are not addictive when given for chronic pain, despite what hundreds of years of experience tell us. We're undertreating pain!"

Next came punitive measures from medical boards and even the legal system. Doctors got the message.

Where did this all come from? Ocycontin was approved in 1996-- a new formulation of a drug first synthesized 80 years before. The (patently ludicrous) claim at the time was that, by making the drug sustained release, it was somehow no longer highly addictive. Oxycontin was produced and marketed by Purdue Pharma, a privately held corporation. Or should I say (((Purdue Pharma)))? Getting people addicted to a proprietary drug when you own the patent is a license to print money, plus it further degrades American society. What's not to like?

The 2007 criminal trial of top Purdue executives (all of whom belonged to a particular tribe) was edifying, although not well covered in the media, for some reason.

20 years down the road, and the leading gateway drug to heroin is now prescription opioids. This was likely a predictable outcome. Perhaps wiping out opium production was not viewed as a good thing by TPTB...

Read up on the (((Sassoons))), the opium trade in China in the 1800s, and the Opium Wars. Same recipe; same people behind it. The rabbit hole is always deeper than you think.

Blogger Natalie September 19, 2016 1:41 PM  

Around here the only people who admit to liking Hillary are raging SJW feminists. I literally know ONE person who has come out pro-Hillary. I know some quiet Trumpers and some "holding my nose" Trumpers, and a few folks voting for Weedman and Egghead.

What's funny is the complete lack of signage. No Hillary signs. No Trump signs. The rare MAGA shirt. People really are scared to say what they think this time around. "Why be a victim" seems to be the attitude.

Anonymous BGKB September 19, 2016 1:42 PM  

150 show up at Weekend at Bernies rally for HilLIARy in Akron OH
http://www.theamericanmirror.com/bernie-bust-150-turn-sanders-ohio-stop-hillary/
"The event had the appearance of an academic lecture"

LA times puts TRUMP ahead by 6.7
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Blogger Natalie September 19, 2016 1:42 PM  

I will point out that I live in suburban Alabama. This is hardly the heart of violent political demonstration land, and people are still keeping quiet about their specific political choices.

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey September 19, 2016 1:44 PM  

"Misery as Profit"
Great piece. Couldn't remember where I'd seen it, or I would have linked it for my comment above.

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey September 19, 2016 1:56 PM  

"Misery as Profit"
Great piece. Couldn't remember where I'd seen it, or I would have linked it for my comment above.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 19, 2016 1:56 PM  

78. dh September 19, 2016 11:40 AM
As you will see, President and Vice President McCain REALLY PACKED THEM IN,



see, now that's just deceitful.

McCain hated Conservatives before he got the nomination, McCain hated Conservatives after the election and McCain hated Conservatives while he was running.

he was just pretending to like us while campaigning because he needed our votes. AND WE KNEW THAT FULL WELL. ( i, in fact, voted Constitution Party )


the ONLY enthusiasm in McCain's run was for Palin, McCain himself was almost as moribund as Dole before he nabbed Palin for his VP candidate and she lit up those first couple of speeches.

Blogger Thucydides September 19, 2016 2:04 PM  

Perhaps OT, maybe not:

The bombings were most likely a test to check the methods and timings of the first responders against a coordinated attack. Sure, they offered up a mook to be captured and paraded in front of the cameras, but how difficult is that, anyway? It is even better for the planners, because they have distracted the police with their mook. The coincidence of a knife attack in Minnesota provides them with another data point, so the next time will have a lot more moving parts to paralyze the first responders and law enforcement.

OF course, every time something like this happens, it is another piece of evidence to support Trump's view of the world, and another nail in the Dem's coffin. If it really was a false flag, it is incredibly stupid because it strengthens the case the Alt Right and "Deplorables" are making against the elites in their gated communities: can the "elites" really be so cut off from reality not to figure that out?

Any bombings, shootings, stabbings, mass casualty vehicle attacks between n ow and election day will only push people even more into Trump's camp, so, no, it was not and could not be a "false flag" attack.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents September 19, 2016 2:51 PM  

The bombings were most likely a test to check the methods and timings of the first responders against a coordinated attack

Maybe, or maybe just leaderless offensive, like the Orlando jihadi. Something I didn't notice the first time through reading Orlando data is how the jihadi made a point to declare himself a shaheed in service to some camelgroper or not. Remote radicalization, he didn't travel to Trashcanistan and become Sheik Well's dude, he did it from here.

Therefore travel restrictions don't have much meaning.

So far the jihad hasn't bothered to learn from history. A Beltway Sniper style team combined with other events could tie up an entire city for days or longer.

Blogger Reese MacGruder September 19, 2016 3:03 PM  

dh wrote:Just so you know: this is literally what every losing candidate for President always claims, right up until the day of the election.

Are you actually floating this lie as reasonable logic?

How were any of those elections (or those candidates) in any way comparable to what is happening in 2016?

Did any of those candidates receive non-stop 24/7 venom and lies from every conceivable corner of the American managerial elite and their media mouthpiece?

Did any of those past candidate's supporters face physical violence, verbal harassment and public shaming for simply attending a rally or wearing a campaign logo?

Were any of those candidate's supporters labeled by the opposition (and much of the media) as bigot, xenophobe, islamophobe, homophobe, misogynist, deplorable, unredeemable and Not-American?

Did anyone who supported those candidates lose their job because of it?

If you truly believe that voters in 2016 have no more motivation than past elections to hide their support, then every other opinion you offer in regards to this election has to be viewed with much skepticism.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2016 3:16 PM  

Reese MacGruder wrote:Did any of those candidates receive non-stop 24/7 venom and lies from every conceivable corner of the American managerial elite and their media mouthpiece?

Yes


Did any of those past candidate's supporters face physical violence, verbal harassment and public shaming for simply attending a rally or wearing a campaign logo?

Yes


Were any of those candidate's supporters labeled by the opposition (and much of the media) as bigot, xenophobe, islamophobe, homophobe, misogynist, deplorable, unredeemable and Not-American?

Yes


Did anyone who supported those candidates lose their job because of it?

Yes

Blogger ManofGondor September 19, 2016 3:22 PM  

Miss Havisham- That is hysterical!! We can only hope her end is similar.

Anonymous Bukulu September 19, 2016 3:23 PM  

"So far the jihad hasn't bothered to learn from history. A Beltway Sniper style team combined with other events could tie up an entire city for days or longer."

OMG. You need to extrapolate that a bit.

If you're talking team, a team of 5 or 6 people could tie down a whole metro region or region for weeks or months! Remember what Christopher Dorner did to SoCal all by his lonesome?

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 19, 2016 3:27 PM  

How were any of those elections (or those candidates) in any way comparable to what is happening in 2016?

Did any of those candidates receive non-stop 24/7 venom and lies from every conceivable corner of the American managerial elite and their media mouthpiece?

Did any of those past candidate's supporters face physical violence, verbal harassment and public shaming for simply attending a rally or wearing a campaign logo?

Were any of those candidate's supporters labeled by the opposition (and much of the media) as bigot, xenophobe, islamophobe, homophobe, misogynist, deplorable, unredeemable and Not-American?


The Ron Paul Revolution says hi

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd September 19, 2016 3:39 PM  

dh wrote:... it's always been Bill. I know everyone thinks Hillary is this high-level alpha bitch trying to run the world, but it's always been Bill. Hillary has always been a distant #2 to Bill.

I think I agree that Bill is the dangerous one, and Hill is the crazy one. Does that mean that Bill lost control in 2008, or does it mean that Bill didn't want his bitch in the Offal Office?

And, still the original question: when the witch is dead, who is the new figurehead? Of course Bill wants the bribes to keep flowing into his foundation, but does he have that kind of control, or will it be 2008 all over again?

Either way, too late to get new names on too many ballots. They will have to run a corpse. Succession rules apply after the inaguration, so it isn't obvious how they will deal with successful vote fraud that selects our first zombie president.

Anonymous Andrew E. September 19, 2016 3:43 PM  

The Ron Paul Revolution says hi

I follow politics fairly well. I was never conscience of the whole Ron Paul thing in '08 or '12. It never really broke through beyond die hards. People need to stop citing this as some kind of analogue to what Trump is doing. The Pauls could never do (and didn't do) what Trump is doing. Ron's too weird and ideological.

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd September 19, 2016 3:51 PM  

Snidely Whiplash wrote:Yes

I voted for either the Lolbertarian or the demonized candidate in those elections. I don't remember anything like we are seeing today. Things are _way_ more polarized than 1980, and much more viscious than 2012.

Furthermore, in 2008 and 2012, the (R)s ran losers who were near-perfect twins to the (D) candidate (Romney-care versus 0bammy-care, McStain holding hands with 0bammy to pass TARP). McStain made it clear that he despised conservatives, and would gladly be rid of them.

For the first time in generations, we have a clear choice between good and evil, rather than Tweedle-Dum versus Tweedle-Dee. That alone makes this election different.

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents September 19, 2016 4:05 PM  

The Gary Johnson Revolution hi-fives your Ron Paul Revolution while the Tea Party claps politely from the audience.


Meanwhile the Trump Train is fine.

Blogger Nigel McPhearson September 19, 2016 4:15 PM  

On another thread someone mentioned how much they learned through references regarding history,philosophy, politics etc gleaned through comments on this site and others like it. Yours is a good example of that. A corrective to the miseducation of a nation.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2016 4:16 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2016 4:17 PM  

As a Buchananite, I can verify that yes, politics has been this nasty as long as I've been alive.
And yes, 1980 was just this divisive. As was 1972. As was 1968. 1964 was even more so.

Some things are unique about this election, but the anger, divison, and unabated hatred of the Left and the establishment cucks are not.

Blogger Karl September 19, 2016 4:27 PM  

The day to take the polls seriously, if you want a Republican win, is the day after the election.

Where Hillary falls short in the inspiration game of offering more free stuff, she'll make up on the voter fraud side.

Until Nov 9th, I'm assuming my side is losing.

Blogger dh September 19, 2016 4:33 PM  

If you truly believe that voters in 2016 have no more motivation than past elections to hide their support, then every other opinion you offer in regards to this election has to be viewed with much skepticism.

2016 is very similar to 2008 in terms of tone, just for different subset. In 2008, a young person who wasn't on board with Obama was treated like 50+ year old white guys and ladies are treated right now.

Every side always claim they are secretly winning, and none of the polls, none of the actual indicators of public opinion reflect it.

Yet, in the primaries, if you look at the last 30 days of polling before each primary, the polls are on whole really accurate.

So, your theory is, contrary to history, THIS time, something new is happening. Fine. And this time, something new is so undetectable that it simply can't be quantified, AND, it's happening only after the primaries.

It's fine with me, just literally don't be disappointed on the day after, when those millions of voters, who demographically don't exist, don't materialize and vote.

The number one predictor of someone voting for the first time is not the candidate, but age, then race, then party. All of the older, white, Republicans are already voting or will never vote.

Blogger dh September 19, 2016 4:34 PM  

I think I agree that Bill is the dangerous one, and Hill is the crazy one. Does that mean that Bill lost control in 2008, or does it mean that Bill didn't want his bitch in the Offal Office?

He absolutely lost control. Obama won, and installed his people. They are all gone now. As soon as 2012 was over, Obama's people at the local, state and national level stated to be transitioned out for Hillary's people. Who are almost all long-time Clinton loyalists.

Blogger dh September 19, 2016 4:37 PM  

I think the state to watch is Pennsylvania. For twenty years, the Presidency has been decided by Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Carry any two, and you're in the Oval Office. Trump is working the lower-middle-class voters the Democrats abandoned hard.

There is no way for Trump to get to 270 without PA, OH, and FL. He's on the edge in OH and FL, but down substantially in PA. He also needs Nevada, which he's losing still by more than MoE.

The state-based polling for PA is lagging behind, it will be interesting to see where it lands after the debates.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 19, 2016 4:39 PM  

Since 1992 the real coveted vote has been the nice white woman vote I think that play is about played out. The D party is getting too nasty

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2016 4:40 PM  

dh wrote:Yet, in the primaries, if you look at the last 30 days of polling before each primary, the polls are on whole really accurate.


Interesting caveat there. So why are you using that information to call the race almost 50 days before the election?

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 19, 2016 5:35 PM  

"so it isn't obvious how they will deal with successful vote fraud that selects our first zombie president."

Well, since dead Democrats vote for president far more often than live ones do, I see no reason why a dead Democrat can't actually BE president too.

Anonymous BGKB September 19, 2016 6:04 PM  

a team of 5 or 6 people could tie down a whole metro region or region for weeks or months!...Christopher Dorner

5 or 6 smart people could tie up any state for months.

The Pauls could never do (and didn't do) what Trump is doing. Ron's too weird and ideological.

Little Paul was doing free cataract surgeries in Haiti when he should have been campaigning, not that it would have helped his cucked self.

Blogger James Dixon September 19, 2016 6:18 PM  

> Actually, what was said and you can see the quotes itself, is that the data indicates a very narrow path for Trump victory, a path that has never been followed by a winning Presidential candidate.

dh, the path for a Trump victory is the same as it was for Reagan. Massive turnout by working class Democrats who vote for him rather than his opponent. All indications are that's happening. Whether it will still be enough to overcome the certain voter fraud I can't say.

> I think GOP turnout is the key and I believe that McCain especially and Romney did not match GWB's turnout, I could be wrong too lazy to look up numbers.

Correct. But the question is, are those Republican voters still there to turn out? dh doesn't think so.

> Yet, in the primaries, if you look at the last 30 days of polling before each primary, the polls are on whole really accurate.

And we're not 30 days out from the primaries yet. Let's start checking the polls then.

> So, your theory is, contrary to history, THIS time, something new is happening.

Nope. My working theory is that this is a return to the Nixon/Reagan voting patterns, when the D candidate was so unliked the R candidate won in a walk. We'll see if I'm right or not.

Remember that Bush Jr. won against two candidates who nobody really liked in Gore and Kerry. Bush himself wasn't very likable, but his opponents were worse. Obama was far more likeable than McCain, and probably more so than Romney (besides being the incumbent). Neither Trump nor Hillary are well liked, but the more the mainstream sees of Trump, the better he looks. The more they see of Hillary, the worse she looks. That's not a good thing for Hillary right now with the election heating up.

Anonymous dagwood September 19, 2016 6:19 PM  

"Little Paul was doing free cataract surgeries in Haiti when he should have been campaigning"

He was probably stupid enough to think that the sooper-kool news of his free surgeries in Haiti WAS a form of campaigning. Good thing he didn't try any harder, the guy's a nitwit, and his dad's a creepy weirdo.

Besides, why the hell was he making an effort to improve the vision of Haitians? So they could then walk around seeing that they live in HAITI?! Isn't that some form of criminal abuse?

Anonymous dagwood September 19, 2016 6:23 PM  

"5 or 6 smart people could tie up any state for months."

They certainly could. And they all live here already, pour longtemps, ready to roll when called for, in every single state; but they aren't named Mohammed. They have names like Chang and Wong and Kim and Park and Cho.

Thanks, Emmanuel Celler! Another mitzvah accomplished!

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis September 19, 2016 6:31 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis September 19, 2016 6:32 PM  

@140

DH more than the MOE? I'm looking at real clear and the average shows Clinton up by .7 with the latest poll showing Trump up by +2. That looks like it's within the margin of error.

What are your answers to the individuals who would counter your points about the polls being predictive saying they are heavily oversampling democratic/liberal voters and under sampling republican/conservative voters? Hanging your hate on historic polls doesn't make sense in my mind when the polls methodology itself is bad; if indeed it is as bad as some claim.

Anonymous Mayor of Tombstone September 19, 2016 7:04 PM  

first zombie President

@143

Well, since dead Democrats vote for president far more often than live ones do, I see no reason why a dead Democrat can't actually BE president too.


Votes for zombies and other undead now!

No decomposition without representation!

Anonymous Type 5 September 19, 2016 7:19 PM  

I have to chime in here against the idea that people are concealing their preference for Trump from the pollsters.

I spent a couple of years as a telephone interviewer doing survey research. If someone doesn't trust the anonymous voice at the other end of the phone, they simply don't do the interview. If someone consents to do a phone interview about politics, it's because they want to share their political views. Believe me, they overshare. Think about it, would you do a phone survey if you thought in any way it could be used against you later?

If there is a hidden Trump vote, it will be because the pollsters are inaccurately estimating the election day turnout of the various declared Trump/Clinton demographics, not because of respondents fudging their answers.

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 19, 2016 7:23 PM  

"historic polls doesn't make sense in my mind when the polls methodology itself is bad"

Maybe someone who knows a lot more than I do about this can expand on it, but... I never get robo-calls or telemarketing calls on a cell phone, I only get them on a land line, and I use the cell phone about 90% more often, which seems to indicate that pollsters don't even have any idea how to reach me, even if they'd wanted to.

If that's a general trend, and it seems like it is, what does it say about polling here in Current Year?

Blogger Cicatrizatic September 19, 2016 7:27 PM  

dh:
Your McCain/Palin rally analogy fails entirely. The point here is the difference in enthusiasm between the two candidates running. Yes, McCain had rallies, but Obama had bigger ones. Further, the polls already show that enthusiasm among young voters is far lower than under Obama.

Note that for 6 of the 9 final polls in the RCP average last time, the result of the election was outside the MOE. Despite the fact that Obama won, the polls did not “get it right” last time.
“He also needs Nevada, which he's losing still by more than MoE.”

He is only down by 0.7 in Nevada, which is obviously within the MOE. Did you not check that before you wrote it? On the last thread you incorrectly claimed that Trump got more votes in the MA primary than Clinton.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html

Trump doesn’t necessarily need a tsunami of new voters. See:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?_r=0

Also, WSJ did a piece on the undecideds voters in this election. There are almost 2x as many undecideds versus last time, and they prefer a Republican congress to a Democratic Congress 48% to 28%.

Blogger Bill Quick September 19, 2016 7:45 PM  

"I've never been to Pennsylvania and don't know anyone there. So perhaps the people of that state do indeed have a weird fetish for Miss Havisham."

Jeff Jarvis just got back from trying to campaign for Hillary in Bethlehem, PA. He's one very depressed liberal: http://dailypundit.com/2016/09/19/city-mouse-country-mouse/

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 19, 2016 7:45 PM  

"If someone doesn't trust the anonymous voice at the other end of the phone, they simply don't do the interview."

But you just solved your own conundrum. Most people know that the voice at the other end of the phone is almost certainly a leftist, and so Trump voters just wouldn't do the interview, as you say.

The Thought Police have become much more psycho and aggressive in recent years. Most white people won't honestly discuss politics with a stranger, even a white stranger, unless it's obvious in advance that they're both libtards. It's not even necessarily about a fear of retaliation, it's often about just being sick and tired of this crap. The leftists will win by simply annoying us to death.

Where I live, there's always a horde of earnest young people on the sidewalk carrying clipboards and wearing badges on lanyards, asking if I have a minute to discuss Stupid Leftist Issue of the Week. I just tell them politely that I never sign petitions, no matter what they're for, and leave it at that. I can't be bothered to argue with a grown man who's wearing cargo-pants shorts and flip flops.

Anonymous Type 5 September 19, 2016 7:47 PM  

Maybe someone who knows a lot more than I do about this can expand on it, but... I never get robo-calls or telemarketing calls on a cell phone, I only get them on a land line

I can explain a little. Back when I was working for a survey company, cell phones were just getting popular but were still a luxury item. Researchers tried as much as possible to exclude cell numbers from the sample, I think because of how pissed people were when you called up to waste their minutes as due to any other reason. Over the years, cell phone usage went up and land lines almost disappeared. I know that researchers changed the policy and specifically started including cell numbers several years ago. I assume marketers made the switch much earlier. If we're not getting as many robocalls on our cells, it's simply because they're not yet sophisticated in identifying likely numbers yet.

Anonymous Type 5 September 19, 2016 8:11 PM  

Most people know that the voice at the other end of the phone is almost certainly a leftist, and so Trump voters just wouldn't do the interview, as you say.

Interesting point. I do find it a lot more plausible that Trump voters are allergic to surveys than that they're lying to pollsters. It's still speculation, though.

There are techniques to find out the attitudes of the survey-resistant portion of your sample population. The number one way is to call up people who refused and offer them money to do the interview. I think we can confidently assume that these political pollsters aren't bothering with that.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 19, 2016 8:27 PM  

153. Cicatrizatic September 19, 2016 7:27 PM
Note that for 6 of the 9 final polls in the RCP average last time, the result of the election was outside the MOE.



hell, quite often simultaneous polls will be outside the "MoE" of *each other*.

so ... how do you determine which poll is science and which is junk?

guess ya gotta hold an election.


151. Type 5 September 19, 2016 7:19 PM
If someone consents to do a phone interview about politics, it's because they want to share their political views.



that's weird, because i have intentionally lied to poll takers before.

granted, i may be a bit of an outlier ...

Anonymous Rolf September 19, 2016 8:38 PM  

Bob - What?! Lie to a pollster? Say it isn't so!

I mean, just because I was a 34-45 YO female pacific islander who just LOVES Johnson doesn't mean there isn't anyone else by that description in the world.

But then, I *know* I'm an outlier in most groups.

Anonymous Yay Trump September 19, 2016 8:59 PM  

I think it's pretty telling that dh ignores Trump's massive, election-winning level of improvement with minorities to harp on the college educated demographic. Trump wins (narrowly) with Romney's share of the white vote at his current levels of double-digit minority support. And since he's doing better by far than Romney with the non-college whites, even if they turn out at the same level as 2012, they will be more Republican (according again to the polls), so Trump will ultimately still get somewhere between 60 and 65% of the white vote plus triple or so the minority share Romney got.

Hard to see how this equals a losing Republican candidate. It would be a win well outside the 1-2 point margin of fraud.

Anonymous dagwood September 19, 2016 9:21 PM  

"It would be a win well outside the 1-2 point margin of fraud."

Perhaps, but the problem as I see it is, we should assume there will be a far higher level of fraud this time around than the norm.

Hillary is a much bigger crook than a usual politician, she's more desperate to win than a usual presidential hopeful, she has lots more liabilities than a usual prez hopeful, she's an ideological nutjob, the Dems are crazier and more crooked than ever, their base is composed of more crooks, crazy people, stupid people, and desperate people than ever, they all see Trump as some sort of satanic avatar rather than just a normal GOP bad guy, which ups the crazy waaay past eleven, and they smell blood in the water: they figure if they can win on this go-round, they can pack SCOTUS with psychopaths and flood the country with so much foreign mystery meat that whites will be permanently finished off. It makes them cream in their jeans.

Anonymous Type 5 September 19, 2016 9:25 PM  

granted, i may be a bit of an outlier ...

Gee, ya think?

Anonymous Yay Trump September 19, 2016 10:41 PM  

No, we shouldn't. The people who do the fraud simply haven't done all the stuff that is needed. There's also fewer of them as volunteers. Hillary is limited mostly to the paid, existing machine workers. It's just not enough to exceed typical levels of fraud.

Obama couldn't even get excited, enthusiastic volunteers to "help" him get the same or more EVs than his 2008 win. Hillary has even fewer bodies on the ground to lend an assist. I have no idea why this idea keeps being rehashed as some sort of serious threat. Obama's performance is probably the best Hillary could hope for, and she needed those people on the ground months ago for that to be the case. She can't even get Obama's poll numbers with thumbs and feet on the scale.

Sometimes a corrupt old hag who has to pay for everything is just a corrupt old hag who has to pay for everything and thus can't win by 5 or 10 points via fraud. Which is what she'd need.

Anonymous Yay Trump September 19, 2016 10:43 PM  

It's like the Hugos if Vox had brought 10k puppies. There's too many Kevin Standlees who hate Trump but will stay true to the process and not enough bright young things who love them some hilbot to offset that.

Blogger bob k. mando ( the hardest troll here ) September 19, 2016 11:26 PM  

162. Type 5 September 19, 2016 9:25 PM
Gee, ya think?



*wink*

Anonymous Mr. Deplorabional September 20, 2016 3:00 AM  

Down and Out in... wrote:But you just solved your own conundrum. Most people know that the voice at the other end of the phone is almost certainly a leftist, and so Trump voters just wouldn't do the interview, as you say.
When the caller ID shows a name or number I don't recognize or don't want to talk to, the phone does not get answered.  They don't even get to leave a message.

Anonymous Mahbalzr Richey September 20, 2016 5:20 AM  

I want to pile on to this idea that Trump people are less likely to respond to surveys. This is purely anecdotal- but I have had only a cell phone since about 2000 and I have not answered any surveys or telemarketing calls for probably more than 12 years. It has been my practice not to answer calls from unknown numbers for nearly as long.

Although some anti-Trumpers would do the same, my instinct suggests to me that this behavior would be more common to the type of personality that supports Trump. Thoughts?

Anonymous SciVo de Plorable September 20, 2016 6:15 AM  

Uncle Silas wrote:The best political analysis now is in the Manosphere/Alt-Right

Political correctness has made it so that because of CogDis, hardly anyone else is capable of even seeing all the data, let alone contemplating all the possibilities. Poor Scott Adams found himself uncomfortably embraced by us just because his thoughts were unchained, and he ended up closing his comments because it wasn't fun for him any more. (All about energy management.)

Cantostop wrote:Most of these people are principle-less hacks, at best, who have never had real jobs in their lives, to paraphrase Nigel Farage. If they're not completely stupid, and they can get away with it, once it's clearer that Trump may in fact win I think they'll scramble like rats to claim to be one of the people who supported it all along but just couldn't get on board before for [insert plausible reason].

Why would they do that? I infer that you are most likely from a parliamentary system. Except for vetoing their bills, there is no real pressure that the prez can put on them, and that's by design (separation of powers).

Anonymous SciVo de Plorable September 20, 2016 6:29 AM  

Mahbalzr Richey wrote:Although some anti-Trumpers would do the same, my instinct suggests to me that this behavior would be more common to the type of personality that supports Trump. Thoughts?

You would have to present evidence beyond anecdote, because it could go both ways. Older people are both more likely to have landlines, and also stereotyped as more clannish. So sure, maybe on balance Sick Hillary supporters are answering more strange numbers on their cellphones, but we can't just assume it.

Blogger bosscauser September 20, 2016 9:41 AM  

The 5 voters in my family last voted for Bush....
Got polls?

Let's go #Trump and hurry!

Blogger bosscauser September 20, 2016 9:42 AM  

The 5 voters in my family last voted for Bush....
Got polls?

Let's go #Trump and hurry!

Blogger Jimmy The Freak September 20, 2016 2:22 PM  

Just as a local anecdote, I live in Western PA and am seeing a lot of Trump signs up even though they are technically not supposed to be displayed until 1 month before the election. The only Hillary signs I see are "Hillary for Prison"

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