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Monday, July 10, 2017

Here we go again

The pollsters are making a few "honest mistakes of their own. Again.
Most national pollsters are back churning out biased and misleading poll numbers after recovering from their shock over President Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory, according to The Daily Caller News Foundation Investigative Group analysis.

“I do know inherently there is a Democratic bias in the polls. And most of them will deny it” says Raghavan Mayur, an independent pollster who is president of TechnoMetrica, which leads the polling operations at Investor’s Business Daily.

A national financial news organization, IBD was one of the few polling organizations to predict a Trump victory, and it has accurately called the last four presidential elections.

“Typically, the mainstream media and the major polling companies will never admit their bias to you,” Mayur said. “This is like an alcoholic not admitting to using alcohol. They are in denial.”

Democratic pollster Patrick Caddell agreed with Mayur, saying “there was a couple of days of shock. And then they moved on because what they could not do is to get to the bottom of their own polling bias.”
In other words, they're undercounting likely Trump supporters by 6 to 9 percent. Keep this in mind when the 2018 election cycle begins.

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53 Comments:

Blogger kurt9 July 10, 2017 4:08 PM  

If you add, perhaps, 15% to the polls that show Trump's approval rating around 45% or so, you're likely to come up with a credible number.

Anonymous basementhomebrewer July 10, 2017 4:12 PM  

They keep brushing their own polls under the rug or rewriting history. They had pajama boy up 7% in a solidly Republican district 2 weeks before the election. He magically ends up losing that election by 4%. Do not trust any of the approval rating polls. Those same polls showed Obama had overwhelming approval throughout his entire presidency.

Anonymous Looking Glass July 10, 2017 4:19 PM  

There's two interwoven issues.

1) White, Educated Voters are about the only people actually still responding to Phone Polling to a level capable of being valuable.
2) They intentionally overskewed the Data.

4 weeks out Trump was leading every National Poll if you reskewed the Cross Tabs to a D+3 sample. Some of the States tightened up and the 3rd Party vote actually stayed very high. In a "normal" cycle without the Press destroying itself to move the needle, I think Trump wins about +4 on the popular. (Though it should be noted that it seems the Dems really focused their fraud on CA & NV. Possible CO. They wanted to rack up big numbers because Bill never made 50%.)

If you honestly skew your polling crosstabs, it wasn't very hard to figure out the state of the race or Trump's rough popularity level. But they need it for the Propaganda effect. Yet, that action is making most everyone but Educated Whites stop responding to polls. No one else picks up the phone now.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) July 10, 2017 4:22 PM  

Hasn't Gallup always polled all adults for presidential job approval?

Anonymous Step Butler July 10, 2017 4:33 PM  

As usual white people are the problem

Even "good" whites have retrograde views

https://twitter.com/joeprince___/status/884463860736028672

Blogger Ron Winkleheimer July 10, 2017 4:35 PM  

At this point I see no reason to believe anything the MSM "reports." They are simply no longer credible. The hysteria they exhibit is caused by the panic they feel as the decentralization of access to information continues to erode their ability to shape the narrative.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) July 10, 2017 4:38 PM  

“I do know inherently there is a Democratic bias in the polls. And most of them will deny it” says Raghavan Mayur, an independent pollster who is president of TechnoMetrica, which leads the polling operations at Investor’s Business Daily.

This is a strange statement from Mayur given that the IBD poll uses the same all Americans sample as Gallup and is even more negative than Gallup (avg spread of -16 v -13).

Rasmussen is the only poll tracked by RCP that uses a likely voter sample. Everyone else either uses registered voters or all adults.

Blogger Noah B The Savage Gardener July 10, 2017 4:39 PM  

I've been wondering for months now if the media managed to swing the election to Obama in 2012. There were some indications that they were undersampling Republicans.

If so, the media inadvertently did us a favor.

Blogger SamuraiJack July 10, 2017 4:40 PM  

Fake news overload: a condition that makes normal, healthy individuals hate the media. Side effects include cutting cable, reading books, red pilling loved ones and normies, spreading memes, and laughing at reporters.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) July 10, 2017 4:41 PM  

Here's the average spread for each sample
A -11.6
RV -9.2
LV -4.3

Blogger tz July 10, 2017 4:42 PM  

First Gianforte, now The Father of the CNN Beatdown meme punches a reporter.

oh, I'm so shocked. horrified. Keep it up!

Anonymous BBGKB July 10, 2017 4:43 PM  

I have it on good authority that TRUMP will be impeached within the week for having Russian hookers pee on Obama's prayer mat.

Anonymous Orville July 10, 2017 4:50 PM  

Polls, we don't need no stinking polls. They better watch it, or they'll be targeted with nuclear memes from orbit.

Anonymous BluePony July 10, 2017 4:55 PM  

"They are simply no longer credible."

They never really were. Even Cronkite's image was a fabrication.

Blogger Eric Slate July 10, 2017 4:57 PM  

So, when reality slapped the polsters in the face, it took them less than 6 months to shrug it off and go back to business as usual...

That means they are an integrated part of the political elite we should be taking down.

Blogger Eric Slate July 10, 2017 4:57 PM  

Fake news, fake numbers, fake leadership.

Blogger Jack Ward July 10, 2017 5:11 PM  

Complete with 6. I hope the msm keep underestimating Trump. I want major shock to hit msm at 2018 and 2020 and 2024 and 2028, etc.

Blogger Ingot9455 July 10, 2017 5:11 PM  

@11 To quote Tank Abbott, "You're gonna have to turn off those highlights. I'm gettin' sexually aroused."

Blogger Jew613 July 10, 2017 5:20 PM  

The polls now exist to manipulate the electorate. This was effective because for a long time the polls were there to make accurate predictions. But the manipulation is becoming ever less effective as people no longer trust the pollsters.

Blogger Ransom Smith July 10, 2017 5:34 PM  

First Gianforte, now The Father of the CNN Beatdown meme punches a reporter.

oh, I'm so shocked. horrified. Keep it up!


He should have waited until the reporter was inside his shop, then kicked the ever loving crap out of him and claimed the reporter had been told not to trespass and was threatening him.

Anonymous Mel Gibbs July 10, 2017 5:36 PM  

The thing at 11 is from four years ago and was about a shady car dealer. It has nothing to do with the meme Nazi. Stop spreading fake news

Blogger Duke Norfolk July 10, 2017 5:37 PM  

The left rages against the truth and reality. It's what they're all about. They cannot handle the truth and have a mystical-like belief that they can create the reality they want if they just try hard enough. It's delusional. It's the left.

Anonymous johnc July 10, 2017 5:37 PM  

I have it on good authority that TRUMP will be impeached within the week for having Russian hookers pee on Obama's prayer mat.

Louise...? Louise Mensch is that you...?

Blogger lowercaseb July 10, 2017 5:44 PM  

tz wrote:First Gianforte, now The Father of the CNN Beatdown meme punches a reporter.

oh, I'm so shocked. horrified. Keep it up!


As beautiful as that cross was, that's a video from 2013.

http://www.carscoops.com/2013/02/pow-shady-used-car-dealer-sucker.html

Still, I think think that it shows that no matter what the year, it is always your patriotic duty to punch smug reporters that trespass into your place of business.

Anonymous krbu July 10, 2017 5:57 PM  

Red Riding Horses is a blog run by cucked college-age kids (and a handful of grown-ups) who talk about polling data and even run a couple polls themselves. Though they are establishment toadies and die-hard never-Trumpers, they do critique the worst of the mainstream pollsters, remaining blind to their own bigotry. We could do better. Much better.

For one, there are plenty of geeky sorts on this site who could parse poll data to find obvious discrepencies and biases, far more geeks than on RRH.

Furthermore, our reach is geographically huge -- as far as I can tell, the readers of Vox seem spread out in every corner of the nation, if not the world.

Thus, I see two possible courses of action: 1) If we can get behind existing polls to the raw data, we could easily come up with interpretations and trendlines not masked by Trump-hate (a few pollsters make such data available) ; 2) In a few hot races where a dozen or so ilk live, we could conduct our own exit poll, or maybe even a predictive poll.

Think of us as conducting an open-minded and honest Nate Silverish 538 site with ilk-sourced comments and spergy digging through the numbers. Or, perhaps, we can talk more superficially about existing data, such as done by Hedgehog Report out of Maryland.

Wouldn't it be fun to have the real numbers at our fingertips?

Data are power. We could counter their attempt at manipulating the electorate in '18

Ours.

Anonymous Avalanche July 10, 2017 6:20 PM  

@9 "Side effects include cutting cable"

Hey! I just did that this morning! Whoo hoo!

Blogger DonReynolds July 10, 2017 6:22 PM  

The only hope in my mind of making polling organizations slightly more honest would be to require them to make the raw data available to the public (and other polling organizations).....then the argument over bias narrows down to pure methodology. Every polling organization massages their raw data trying to make it as representative as possible, essentially trying to create an "accurate" shadow of the population in question. If polling organizations were required to make their raw data available to the public, the validity of their conclusions could be easily tested....and verified by others.

In the "bad old days" we had biased polling organizations too....Harris was consistently Democrat and Roper was consistently Republican. But the purpose of the skewed polling was NOT to confuse or mislead the public. Nobody gives a hoot about that. The purpose was to lead or mislead the wealthy donors into making or refusing campaign contributions.

Blogger tz July 10, 2017 6:31 PM  

Only because it is Matt Walsh and the Blaze, I'm not sure This Matt Walsh Video proving Trump Russia is humor or parody, or intended to be serious like Glenn's Cheetos face.
Scott Adams had similar problems.

Anonymous bbgkb July 10, 2017 6:46 PM  

OT:OMFG I thought you couldn't get fired in the VA if you got caught raping a nurse on live TV in the parking lot while admitting you didn't sterilize surgical equipment. TRUMP did it. #Murse

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/07/president-trumps-va-shakedown-500-fired-200-suspended-conduct/

Anonymous Anonymous July 10, 2017 6:47 PM  

That seems to be a staged video (follow to the YouTube description).

Anonymous Icicle July 10, 2017 6:48 PM  

I've been wondering for months now if the media managed to swing the election to Obama in 2012.

Don't forget all the surveillance they were abusing.

Blogger Tatooine Sharpshooters' Club July 10, 2017 6:48 PM  

OT: Maybe Macron is slightly less cucky than thought:

https://www.unz.com/isteve/french-president-macron-mentions-high-african-fertility-in-passing-the-respectables-are-aghast/

Anonymous Confused Boomer July 10, 2017 6:51 PM  

I miss Walter Cronkite. He always told us how it was. If only he was around, things would be better again.

Anonymous Bad Attitude July 10, 2017 6:52 PM  

Polling is used to shape public opinion, not gauge public opinion.

Blogger Kristophr July 10, 2017 7:01 PM  

The first thing a pollster asks a customer is: "What results do you really want?"

Blogger Eric Slate July 10, 2017 7:08 PM  

As beautiful as that cross was, that's a video from 2013.

A video that showed us why a low level of violence in society is both inevitable and a social good.

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY July 10, 2017 7:15 PM  

" I miss Walter Cronkite. He always told us how it was. If only he was around, things would be better again. "
My Daddy hated that commie bastard. He was a Huntley and Brinkley or Howard K. Smith guy, and if the idjit box was on when he got home from work it better be one or the other, not the Commie Broadcast System.
I was a Yogi Bear guy myself.

Blogger newanubis July 10, 2017 7:15 PM  

I for one am shocked at this institutionalized deception. Shocked I say.

The day fast approaches when even the blue pillers shall recognize there is no actual 'news' available on television. Period.

Lord knows I do my part to castigate those who eat the propaganda with nary a question in mind of its veracity.

Blogger SirGroggy July 10, 2017 7:19 PM  

SJWs always double down!

Blogger Jack Ward July 10, 2017 7:43 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Anonymous Desert Rat July 10, 2017 8:22 PM  

Hillary! didn't bother to campaign in some swing states because she just "knew" that she had these locked up so tight Trump could never pose a threat. I have to assume her campaign relied on polling data to come to those kind of conclusions. Kind of reminds me of Hitler in April '45 moving divisions and armies around on the map and believing the coming counter attack would change the course of the war.

Anonymous andon July 10, 2017 8:47 PM  

there was a polling company that was threatened by the previous occupant in the runup to the 2012 election. maybe it was Gallup?

Blogger lowercaseb July 10, 2017 9:53 PM  

Eric Slate wrote:A video that showed us why a low level of violence in society is both inevitable and a social good.

Amen to that! The sputtering look of that reporter was the look of a boy who suddenly realized that actions have consequences.

Blogger Thucydides July 10, 2017 10:23 PM  

I always like to go back to this speech by Newt Gingrich on how President Trump bet the Liberal Media. We can use many of these ideas themselves, and leave the left in their propaganda bubble and unable too know the lay of the land or understand what is actually happening around them:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIe95tyHQs4

Anonymous Hitler July 10, 2017 10:54 PM  

Kind of reminds me of Hitler in April '45 moving divisions and armies around on the map and believing the coming counter attack would change the course of the war.

I was a victim of circumstance.

Blogger Darwinite July 10, 2017 11:22 PM  

The day before the election a friend back in the old country (Australia) asked me if I honestly believed Trump could win, given the polling.

I told him that Trump would win in a landslide, because what the polling couldn't show, was the deep-seated fear people felt in expressing their honest opinions.

In the months leading up to the election, I had spoken to hundreds of people across several supposedly in-play states, and the second the conversation veered towards politics, they all froze like rabbits. Seriously, the wide-eyed fear expression and dissembling were universal. All I had to do to break the spell was to make a mild comment, like "You know, I kinda like Trump", and the floodgates would open as they agreed whole-heartedly.

We'd talk about the Johnson Amendment, and the Supreme Court, how none of the mid-wits in the media could comprehend Trumps's so-called "fourth grade speech", and why the polls couldn't capture the obvious fact that Hillary signs were as rare as rocking-horse shit, while Trump signs and MAGA hats were everywhere.

Blogger Were-Puppy July 10, 2017 11:39 PM  

@6 Ron Winkleheimer
At this point I see no reason to believe anything the MSM "reports." They are simply no longer credible.
---

What's worse is when places like Fox or conservative type news continually talk about how progs and dems are reacting to things.

If they keep talking about them, then they are giving them a false relevence.

Blogger Were-Puppy July 10, 2017 11:59 PM  

@32 Tatooine Sharpshooters' Club

OT: Maybe Macron is slightly less cucky than thought:
---

Nope. He thinks he is Jupiter.

Emmanuel Bonaparte: Macron Declares He Will Govern Like a Roman God
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/07/04/macron-announces-govern-like-jupiter-roman-king-gods/

Blogger lowercaseb July 11, 2017 2:00 AM  

Were-Puppy wrote:@32 Tatooine Sharpshooters' Club

OT: Maybe Macron is slightly less cucky than thought:

---

Nope. He thinks he is Jupiter.

Emmanuel Bonaparte: Macron Declares He Will Govern Like a Roman God

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/07/04/macron-announces-govern-like-jupiter-roman-king-gods/


He's going to come to women late at night in the form of a swan and rape them?

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 11, 2017 2:03 AM  

lowercaseb wrote:He's going to come to women late at night in the form of a swan and rape them?
No, he's going to get on his computer late at night and watch them get "raped".

Almost the same thing.

Blogger David Power July 11, 2017 4:35 AM  

97% of the American public still trust media polls - Says latest media poll.

Anonymous zebedee July 11, 2017 4:57 AM  

That video is from 2013 and is about an entirely unrelated matter.

Blogger Cail Corishev July 11, 2017 9:45 AM  

That video is from 2013 and is about an entirely unrelated matter.

I love how people think this matters, in a meme war about Fake News.

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