ALL BLOG POSTS AND COMMENTS COPYRIGHT (C) 2003-2018 VOX DAY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED.

Saturday, September 09, 2017

Hurricane Irma

This is an open thread to discuss the incoming hurricane and the preparations for it. And nothing else, please. Spare a thought or two for the people who are being forced to evacuate their homes.

Labels:

167 Comments:

Blogger dh September 09, 2017 7:35 PM  

Evacuated. With the whole crew. I feel bad for those being told to evacuate or die, when they don't have the means. The forecasting isn't exactly spon-on at this point. Hopefully they don't return to economic ruin imposed by over-cautious government middle-managers. The dearth of hard facts is upsetting.

Blogger Shell September 09, 2017 7:36 PM  

Praying for all those affected. Most of all I pray for safety.

Blogger Heian-kyo Dreams September 09, 2017 7:38 PM  

God speed, dh.

Blogger SJ September 09, 2017 7:39 PM  

My ex wife and non-son son have evacuated to Louisiana. So have all of my current wife's family. I'll have to find someone to go check on our second home in saint pete next week, if I can find someone, cause I can't take time from my career to go back down there. I can only imagine the damage it will suffer as it is right inside a major flood zone. Hey at least my insurance payments are up to date.

Blogger lowercaseb September 09, 2017 7:40 PM  

some good friends down in Clewiston just got evacuated. Luckily, they were prepared and had their property ready to be locked up tight and protected as much as they could from the storm. I'm hoping all the rest are just as safe.

Blogger Student in Blue September 09, 2017 7:41 PM  

Irma downgraded to a Cat 3 storm hours ago. Hopefully that means damage will be relatively minimal.

Blogger wisdom wizard September 09, 2017 7:41 PM  

I hate that it's happening. I gave five dollars to a local Kroger for Hurricane Harvey. I've never known a storm like Irma that goes down to a 3 then back up to a 5. I hope everybody stays safe and there are few casualties as possible. Will also say prayers the storm breaks up so as not to cause more damages elseware.

Blogger SouthRon September 09, 2017 7:45 PM  

Mrs. South just talked to friends that finally arrived in North Carolina. Some folks evacuating were in traffic all the way from Miami up into Georgia and have burst blisters on their feet from brake, gas, brake, gas.

Blogger genbktrug September 09, 2017 7:45 PM  

Not evac-ing, but will ride out. Not in danger of flooding. Most concerned with high winds and projectile damage to roof and windows.

Anonymous Charlottesvillain September 09, 2017 7:46 PM  

Thanks for posting this, Vox. Be safe, all.

Blogger WrenchTurner September 09, 2017 7:49 PM  

in West Palm Beach riding it out

Blogger tuberman September 09, 2017 7:50 PM  

I have been praying ... a lot.

Blogger SouthRon September 09, 2017 7:52 PM  

@1 There's a lot of that and folk that don't have the money for plywood, hurricane shutters, or anything else.

Glad you were able to get your crew out.

Anonymous Farnswords September 09, 2017 8:00 PM  

My wife and I must leave our home near downtown Tampa. This storm has been difficult on the nerves, its track inching closer and closer to the Gulf throughout the week. We will be safe, Lord willing, but I am worried about what will become of our home.

Anonymous Causal Lurker September 09, 2017 8:01 PM  

Prayers are MUCH appreciated! I'll add mine for all y'all who are still in place.

My in-laws were unable to evacuate, for medical reasons. They're riding it out in a hospital. Family has plans in place to go help or evacuate them as necessary, once it's safe to travel; we're preparing to host them for the near future, just in case. Right now I'm trying to keep my wife and her siblings calmed down enough to not flip out for the next 4-5 days. Thinking up small, separate tasks and plans for each of them to work on, so they stay busy and don't flip out.

May the LORD bless you and keep you safe from harm, and preserve you body, heart, and soul.

Blogger Jake September 09, 2017 8:01 PM  

The scale of evacuation is unlike anything I've ever seen. My dad was driving back to central GA at 3am this morning or Friday morning and I-75 Northbound was still bumper to bumper, this 100 - 150 miles north of Florida.

We're not so close that people are leaving, but close enough that local churches etc. have been asked NOT to take in evacuees (at least not yet). Went down to visit my grandparents and check in on them and found a family friend was already there to do the same thing, passed my uncle on the way back who was also making the rounds. Family matters, a lot, too easy take it for granted until times like this.

Blogger Noah B The Savage Gardener September 09, 2017 8:04 PM  

Lord be with you guys.

Blogger Cataline Sergius September 09, 2017 8:07 PM  

@dh

I was on hand for the clean up ops for Andrew.

Hopefully they are over-reacting. I've literally seen war zones that were in better shape.

Anonymous Post Alley Crackpot September 09, 2017 8:09 PM  

"In accordance with section 465.0275, Florida Statutes, pharmacists may dispense up to a 30-day emergency prescription refill of maintenance medication to persons who reside in an area or county covered under [Executive Order 17-235] and to emergency personnel who have been activated by their state and local agency but who do not reside in an area or county covered by this Executive Order."

https://www.flhsmv.gov/pdf/emergency/executiveorder17-235.pdf

Anyone still in one of the Gulf Coast counties who can get prescriptions filled, even if they're expired, should do so and then run like hell.

Blogger Eric Mueller September 09, 2017 8:09 PM  

I hope those in the path can get to safety. Based on current projections, I shouldn't have to worry where I'm at in Virginia. Probably some nasty wind and rain, but nothing like those in the path of the storm will get. At least it's not still 185 mph winds. Somebody called it a "lawnmower in the sky".

Blogger Cataline Sergius September 09, 2017 8:17 PM  

I'm not a climatologist by any manner or means but from a physics standpoint I don't see how Irma can maintain it's energy once it hits Florida.

It's just too diffuse to keep going isn't it?

I speak as veteran of many Typhoon Parties on Okinawa.

Blogger Goldeneye September 09, 2017 8:19 PM  

Harvey wasn't all that bad for me, But Irma looks really bad for the Floridians.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 09, 2017 8:20 PM  

Now I am monitoring Irma closely. I have no confidence in forecasters at this point. I look at North America's fronts weather map and it concerns me. Irma better turn North soon. Watching high pressure systems. Are they stationary, are they moving, which way? Is the jet stream stearing Irma?
If Irma gets into the gulf ...

Blogger rycamor September 09, 2017 8:21 PM  

Living on a couple acres in north/central FL with garden and animals. Not leaving. Main preps have been to cut down some huge dead pines trees near the house, and clear up all loose objects on the property. A little exhausted now... monitoring carefully to decide if I put plywood on the southeast-facing windows. Don't want to because that will mess up the vinyl siding.

Main downside is I'm preparing for likely a week without power. Powerlines are above-ground in our somewhat rural area. Two 3000-watt generators will at least be enough to keep the well and kitchen stuff running, but probably will have to go without A/C.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 09, 2017 8:21 PM  

BTW, I am in Houston.

Blogger dh September 09, 2017 8:27 PM  

rycamor -- I hear you on that. The power situation is going to be tough for a while I suspect. My entire town is buried electric, but it's still go old fashioned lines under suspension just outside of town.

Blogger Tank September 09, 2017 8:29 PM  

Coastal NC, feeling relieved that the storm is projected to our West, but should get 40-50 MPH winds and many inches of rain. We're 14 feet above sea level. Just wait and see, nobody is leaving.

Blogger Nate September 09, 2017 8:31 PM  

Cuba really took the piss out of Irma... down to a Cat 3. Lets hope she stays that way.

And lets hope she moves just a little further west. The best place for her to hit would be around Apalachicola. Most of that area isn't very developed.

Also... if you're not in florida... please stop freaking out. I mean you don't go stock up on gas because its gonna rain next tuesday. And if you're north of the florida georgia line... that's all its gonna do.

Blogger Cataline Sergius September 09, 2017 8:32 PM  

Okay here is a bit of common sense advice.

If you have a car that is going to have to ride out the storm outdoors.

Make sure that it has it's front end facing the wind. The front end of your car is designed to face high velocity winds.

The rear end is not and you are begging for a shattered rear window and a ruined interior that way.

Again the whole veteran of Typhoon parties thing.


And while I am on that subject, younger members of the Dread Ilk who riding out the storm in an alcoholic stupor. Please resist the temptation...powerful as it apparently always is... To Spiderman your way up the side of a tall building.

Yeah, it will work... Temporarily.

Hurricane winds aren't that reliable.

Anonymous Looking Glass September 09, 2017 8:35 PM  

@18 Cataline Sergius

They're not overreacting and Irma could still run the entire West Coast of Florida. We could still be seeing actual landfall in the panhandle, but the Storm Surge + Leading Edge winds could wipe out the entire coast line.

Somehow, this could still get worse, and it could still wipe out Tampa as well.

Anonymous Anonymous September 09, 2017 8:35 PM  

Evacuated the family. Hopefully the storm surge and rain are not enough to flood the island. Stay safe Dread Ilk and VFM. Will be praying for those who live in the keys, Naples and Tampa.

Blogger haus frau September 09, 2017 8:36 PM  

How close is Brandon, Florida to Tampa and the flood zone? My step daughter and her family are down there and riding it out. I'm more worried about post hurricane chaos like what happened after the Katrina disaster than physical storm damage. I sent her Bayou man's article on Katrina and suggested if law enforcement comes around asking friendly questions about their firearms that they inform the police they are adamantly anti-gun. The governor of the Virgin Islands confiscated firearms before the hurricane hit them.
https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2008/08/lessons-learned-from-hurricanes-katrina.html

I hope you all are prepared and good to go it alone for the next week.

Blogger VFM #7634 September 09, 2017 8:39 PM  

@Nate
Sucks to be Cuba. Right now she's destroying Varadero. Already gave a third of the country a battering, and now Cuba's equivalent of Waikiki or Ipanema.

Blogger HardReturn¶ September 09, 2017 8:40 PM  

First time in 18 years in Panhandle that I boarded up my big old window. This is a time for family and friends and neighbors to rally to aid each other. This is a time where one's faith is laid bare. Appreciate your prayers for us in this time of uncertainty.

Anonymous User September 09, 2017 8:42 PM  

God save and protect all in the storm's path.

Anonymous Vinus Maximus September 09, 2017 8:46 PM  

Forced evacuation out of Clearwater, riding it out at parents inland near Ocala. Should all be fine here but appreciate the prayers. Lot of animals will die, thats where my thoughts are. Sad

Blogger Nate September 09, 2017 8:48 PM  

"Somehow, this could still get worse, and it could still wipe out Tampa as well."

come on guys... its a Cat 3. It may crank up to a Cat 4. We're not talking about the same storm that hit the Leeward Islands

Blogger dh September 09, 2017 8:52 PM  

Nate, very difficult to separate the good info from the bad, since most of it's filtered through Extreme Weather porn of the news media.

Blogger Kauf Buch September 09, 2017 8:54 PM  

I'm in Pinellas County.
Send the best whiskey you can...because you care!
Seminole 33772

(your best wishes and alot of strong coffee will do)

Anonymous Killua September 09, 2017 8:56 PM  

1. Have several weeks of emergency food in your home, stored somewhere high off the ground like in an attic. Make sure you can prepare this food with no electricity.

2. Have several weeks of clean, drinkable water stored in your home.

Blogger rycamor September 09, 2017 8:56 PM  

Worst thing that could have is Irma heads out to the warm gulf, gains power, and then hooks back into North Florida, which is nowhere near as prepared as the south end. If a cat 4 hits up here, there will be airborne mobile homes and roofs everywhere.

As it is, things are looking like cat 4 at the worst hitting Tampa, chewing up the west coast so that it's a cat 2 by the time it hits the north end of the state. Hoping it stays that way.

Anonymous Clay September 09, 2017 8:56 PM  

When Florida gets hit, it's usually not good.

Beautiful state, but that's just something you have to deal with to live there.

Cuba usually gets the hammer before Florida, but, they seem to take care of themselves.

Anonymous Casey September 09, 2017 8:59 PM  

I communicate with quite a few older people who have spent most of their adult lives in southern Florida. Many of them have had significant damage to their homes during previous hurricanes. Most of them are planning on leaving and not coming back.

I'm not sure what the deal is with all of these hurricanes that are blowing through these days. But they seem to be increasing in frequency and intensity. (and no,..I'm not a global warming windbag)

I see less and less interest in the occupation of coastal regions from here on. Other than the danger and inconvenience of living in hurricane prone regions, the home insurance payments are making it cost prohibitive to reside there.

My wife and I occasionally vacation on Cedar Key. The Condo we rented the last time we were there was for sale for significantly less than the previous owner had paid for it.

My wife would have had us purchase it but I put a strong nix on the idea.

This will be the second hurricane in 2 years to impact that area.

Few people will tolerate a hurricane a year. I'd say that there will be some very nice real estate bargains in Florida after this one passes over.

Blogger Mountain Man September 09, 2017 9:02 PM  

Over one iceagenow.org ; the correlation between an uptick in solar flare activity and the three hurricanes and Mexico earthquake - was mentioned. Somewhat interesting hypothesis. My prayers for those impacted.

Blogger James Dixon September 09, 2017 9:02 PM  

> And if you're north of the florida georgia line... that's all its gonna do.

If it comes up the west coast of Florida (as I believe is currently projected), it could still be a cat 1 or even a cat 2 when it hits SW Georgia. So past the state line isn't necessarily safe.

Blogger ((( bob kek mando ))) - ( i'm sorry you raped Andrea Dworkin and i disavow your Patriarchal Cisheteronormative Bourgeois Consciousness in shame ) September 09, 2017 9:03 PM  

21. Cataline Sergius September 09, 2017 8:17 PM
but from a physics standpoint I don't see how Irma can maintain it's energy once it hits Florida.



likely, it will lose steam. typically they do once they hit land and all the hills and trees which have a lot more drag than open ocean.

however, Florida is rather unique in that a majority of the "land" south of Okeechobee isn't land at all. it's the Everglades, one vast swamp. and the water is often hotter than the Gulf.

so it's conceivable that it could gain strength over 'land', at least until it gets north of the Tamiami corridor.

West Coast Florida is *really* bad from a structural point of view. east coast is mostly coral, very difficult to damage once the surface sand is blasted off.

west coast is mostly low lying and built up muck and dirt. a big storm surge coming through there, especially at high tide, and there could be a LOT that gets wiped out. we could be looking at sections of I-75 gone.

Blogger Nate September 09, 2017 9:06 PM  

"If it comes up the west coast of Florida (as I believe is currently projected), it could still be a cat 1 or even a cat 2 when it hits SW Georgia. So past the state line isn't necessarily safe."

A cat 1 hurricane is just another thunderstorm.

Anonymous Looking Glass September 09, 2017 9:08 PM  

@37 Nate

Tampa has a unique issue that there's a specific track that, if a hurricane at Cat 3 or above ran would ruin most of the city. It's highly unlikely to happen, but Irma is coming from the correct direction to do it.

Anonymous Looking Glass September 09, 2017 9:11 PM  

@43 Casey

Hurricane Cycles. A little like Sun Spots. We're getting something like a repeat of the 1900 through 1920 period. And the Gulf is really warm this year for a variety of reasons.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 09, 2017 9:14 PM  

I know that the "power" was given to national for confiscation but I have not heard of any actual confiscations.

Anonymous Anonymous September 09, 2017 9:14 PM  

I'm In Victoria TX, just lived through Harvey. About a week with no power, stayed with a friend who had power back the next day. I feel really fortunate that it wasn't worse. Wouldn't wish whats happening in Houston on my worst enemy. I pray for Florida.

Anonymous Jeff September 09, 2017 9:14 PM  

God has steered the storm away from Mar a Lago.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 09, 2017 9:14 PM  

And tell no one.

Anonymous Post Alley Crackpot September 09, 2017 9:16 PM  

New Providence island (Nassau) of The Bahamas has been given the all clear as of 2330 UTC on Saturday.

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/news/76124-all-clear-issued-for-new-providence-abaco-berry-islands-a-eleuthera

Grand Bahama (Freeport) is still under advisement.

Blogger Nate September 09, 2017 9:16 PM  

"Tampa has a unique issue that there's a specific track that, if a hurricane at Cat 3 or above ran would ruin most of the city. "

no offense mate... but if that is true... then the City deserves what it is about to get.

Reminds me of New Orleans.

When you are blatantly irresponsible... it eventually bites you in the ass.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 09, 2017 9:17 PM  

We are at a solar minimum. The higher the gradient delta the stronger the storm. If anything it indicates a coole air mass further South, earlier.

Anonymous Post Alley Crackpot September 09, 2017 9:21 PM  

Nate: "A cat 1 hurricane is just another thunderstorm."

That doesn't mean a Category 1 can't rack up some damage.

1990: https://infogalactic.com/info/Hurricane_Klaus
1984: https://infogalactic.com/info/Hurricane_Klaus_%281984%29

Blogger ((( bob kek mando ))) - ( i'm sorry you raped Andrea Dworkin and i disavow your Patriarchal Cisheteronormative Bourgeois Consciousness in shame ) September 09, 2017 9:21 PM  

43. Casey September 09, 2017 8:59 PM
I'm not sure what the deal is with all of these hurricanes that are blowing through these days.



"all" these Hurricanes? what you talkin bout, Willis? we haven't had hardly anything since New Orleans got hit. we're overdue.


43. Casey September 09, 2017 8:59 PM
But they seem to be increasing in frequency and intensity. (and no,..I'm not a global warming windbag)



that's strange. because you're doing an awesome job impersonating one.

take the Houston deal. there wasn't anything particularly "powerful" about Harvey. in fact, the problem with Harvey is that it wasn't powerful enough ( don't send a man to do a woman's job ). Harvey stalled out over Houston and just sat there for a week dumping all it's rain out. had it moved inland, as it WOULD have had it been stronger, it would have blown through and Houston wouldn't have gotten near as much rain fall. and it was the flooding that did Houston in, not the wind damage.

Harvey was the first major storm of the season and never got beyond Cat 3.

Irma *is* a monster. the first to hit the US since Katrina ... back when Bush was president.

"According to the NOAA categorization system for the Atlantic, the most recent above-normal season is the 2016 season, the most recent near-normal season is the 2014 season, and the most recent below normal season is the 2015 season."


43. Casey September 09, 2017 8:59 PM
I see less and less interest in the occupation of coastal regions from here on. Other than the danger and inconvenience of living in hurricane prone regions, the home insurance payments are making it cost prohibitive to reside there.



as well it should.

frankly, i don't think insurance should even be allowed on any house built on a barrier island or lower than ASL +20'.

you want to build in a hurricane total destruction zone ( ie - forget the wind, any appreciable storm surge is going to wipe your dumb ass out )? have at it.

but that house either needs to be disposable or you better have the cash on hand to rebuild from scratch.

Anonymous Post Alley Crackpot September 09, 2017 9:22 PM  

Jaime: Space weather has been interesting this week with some X-ray and flux bursts that have knocked out HF and satellite traffic.

There's also been the possibility of auroras as far south as Alabama.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 09, 2017 9:28 PM  

Yeah. I keep my eye on space weather website. I like it. When the Gremlins used to hit servers for no appatent good reason at a former client, space weather website I would go to give them the reason. ;)
It was all in good humor ... mostly.

Anonymous Looking Glass September 09, 2017 9:34 PM  

@55 Nate

I read a rather long piece on it some time back. Because of the way the bay is, if a strong storm ran right up the bay, it'd run the storm surge across the entire area with some amplifying effect. I'm pretty sure the piece was in response to Katrina narrowly avoiding the worst-case scenario for New Orleans.

However, because of the counter-clockwise nature of Atlantic Hurricanes, actually following the track would be really unlikely, though Irma has the potential.

Blogger Nate September 09, 2017 9:36 PM  

"I read a rather long piece on it some time back. Because of the way the bay is, if a strong storm ran right up the bay, it'd run the storm surge across the entire area with some amplifying effect. "

sounds like the situation in Mobile. but Ivan ran right up the bay and it was a Cat 5... and mobile wasn't destroyed.

Hurricanes are known quantities. You build infrastructure to deal with them. If you don't... then well... that's on you.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 09, 2017 9:45 PM  

Alison did something similar. She stalled and dropped one big drop. Harvey dropped two.

Blogger Cecil Henry September 09, 2017 9:51 PM  

@55

Indeed, these cities have vast wealth for generations. If they have squandered it by failing to invest in protective infrastructure in order to enjoy the superior weather and lifestyle... well that is their responsibility and fault.

Don't build on flood plains!! NO one believes the risk applies to THEM.

Hopefully the storm will abate over land soon.

Blogger Johnny September 09, 2017 9:52 PM  

Casey wrote:I'm not sure what the deal is with all of these hurricanes that are blowing through these days. But they seem to be increasing in frequency and intensity. (and no,..I'm not a global warming windbag)

I looked hurricanes up on the Internet and just by casual observation I don't see any obvious pattern. Perhaps what you are observing is the media hype. That has a pattern of increasing severity.

Blogger Johnny September 09, 2017 9:55 PM  

Going by what I read it would take a bomb shelter to survive a 4 or 5 hurricane. I suppose the Cubans and Hispaniola get through it with houses that are of such low value that they can just take the hits?

Blogger DeploraBard September 09, 2017 10:00 PM  

I really hope that for all of you that live in FL, this is not as bad as predicted.

Blogger T September 09, 2017 10:04 PM  

Family vacation in Jacksonville, I decided my wife, baby and I were leaving on Thursday, convinced the rest to go as well, turned out to be the right move. Stayed at my sisters for a couple nights in Charleston, back to Ohio tomorrow. Stay safe everyone, prayers.

Blogger David The Good September 09, 2017 10:08 PM  

My mom and siblings are safely out of Ft. Lauderdale, but it looks like it's not going to be too bad there at this point. It would be hard for Mom to lose the house. I remember riding our Andrew as a kid. It was terrifying but we were all okay, unlike Homestead. That looked like a nuke had been dropped.

Blogger Curlytop September 09, 2017 10:09 PM  

It's exactly a New Orleans situation. My In-Laws are in Clearwater and in medical field. I remember my MIL explaining the Evacuation/Disaster plan for hospitals in that area a decade ago. Her quote:" It makes no sense for that hospital to be the designated center. If a Cat 3 or higher hit, it would be cut off."

Makes sense if you need to eliminate people.

She currently has Stage 3 Breast Cancer, is there, not here where it is safe. She's a good woman and I am crushed. But they chose that location. Not more we can do.

Blogger Jake September 09, 2017 10:10 PM  

No, just a well built structure preferably made of something more substantial than pine, and not located in an area that will be underwater due to heavy rains or storm surge. Problem comes when you have a powerful storm hit an area built up during a housing boom when construction quality takes a back seat to quantity and things like making sure the roof is securely attached to the walls, and not building in what was/should be a retention pond get overlooked.

Anonymous Looking Glass September 09, 2017 10:12 PM  

@69 David The Good

Glad to hear!

Blogger tweell September 09, 2017 10:12 PM  

Inlaws are riding it out, they are on the east side. Their preps are extensive, so we aren't too worried. Still, you never know.

Blogger JACIII September 09, 2017 10:13 PM  

Here's hoping Cuba shagged Irma. DH and the rest of the "Florida Man" contingent, hang in there. I'll be praying for ya' (and drinkin for ya'). Be safe, and I pray your stuff makes it through OK, too.

God Bless.

Blogger Lazarus September 09, 2017 10:15 PM  

Irma down to Cat 3 right now. Prayers answered.

I was in Placencia Belize a few years back. Most building are on stilts so there is no lower floor. If there is a lower floor, it is all cement. That is how you build in an area subject to storm surge.

If the houses built in Houston were similar, less damage. Instead, cookie-cutter architechture is the norm.

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales September 09, 2017 10:21 PM  

Anyone got any concrete, gut punching response to anyone wanting to talk about climate change because of this storm?

Blogger newbietrader September 09, 2017 10:23 PM  

so where does an SJW snowflake recharge his virtue signaling electric car if it runs out of juice on a traffic jammed interstate?

how do you recharge your eco friendly ride if the power grid is down for a week? guess you be walkin', snowflake

Anonymous Looking Glass September 09, 2017 10:26 PM  

@77 newbietrader

Stable (relatively), storable fuel is always king for a reason.

Blogger Heian-kyo Dreams September 09, 2017 10:30 PM  

When Rita hit Houston right after Katrina, people ran out of gas and the highway became a parking lot. Folks were in their cars for the hurricane.

Glad to hear Floridians have made it out, or are prepped. Praying for those who have to stay.

Blogger JACIII September 09, 2017 10:30 PM  

newbietrader wrote:so where does an SJW snowflake recharge his virtue signaling electric car if it runs out of juice on a traffic jammed interstate?

how do you recharge your eco friendly ride if the power grid is down for a week? guess you be walkin', snowflake


Sheeeit. Some long lines at the charging station?

Blogger Lazarus September 09, 2017 10:33 PM  

Emmanuel Mateo-Morales wrote:Anyone got any concrete, gut punching response to anyone wanting to talk about climate change because of this storm?

There has been a 12 year absence of major hurricanes during the supposed global warming period.

Blogger rycamor September 09, 2017 10:34 PM  

Johnny wrote:Going by what I read it would take a bomb shelter to survive a 4 or 5 hurricane. I suppose the Cubans and Hispaniola get through it with houses that are of such low value that they can just take the hits?

Not true. Fact is, most people survive a Cat 5 as long as they have some foresight. Irma chewed Barbuda to shreds, yet there was only one death.

So far, in modern times I have not seen anything come close to Hurricane Andrew ('92). South Florida was not prepared. There had been over a decade of minimal hurricane activity to lull people into complacency, while the population tripled. Yet there were only a handful of deaths (relatively speaking, given the population).

Anonymous Sim1776 September 09, 2017 10:35 PM  

Check out wattsupwiththat.com

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales September 09, 2017 10:38 PM  

"I'm not sure what the deal is with all of these hurricanes that are blowing through these days. But they seem to be increasing in frequency and intensity. (and no,..I'm not a global warming windbag)."

Wrong.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/08/29/delingpole-harvey-is-what-climate-change-looks-like-see-also-katrina-sandy-matthew-every-storm-ever/

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales September 09, 2017 10:38 PM  

@83

From the article:

Remarkable stats:

1926-1969 (44 years) = 14
Category 4+ US landfalls

1970-2017 (46+ years) = 4
Cat 4+ landfalls

Decrease of >70% https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/901299802322780160 …

Anonymous Elcid Barrett September 09, 2017 10:45 PM  

And here I am finally about to be off orders with the Harvey task force. Good luck and God speed, y'all.

Blogger JACIII September 09, 2017 10:47 PM  

Emmanuel Mateo-Morales wrote:@83

From the article:

Remarkable stats:

1926-1969 (44 years) = 14

Category 4+ US landfalls

1970-2017 (46+ years) = 4

Cat 4+ landfalls

Decrease of >70% …


NOAA will be revisiting those pre 1969 data points. They need "adjusting" down to Cat III, or II, or I. Whatever makes AGW look reals.

Blogger Nate September 09, 2017 10:50 PM  

"Going by what I read it would take a bomb shelter to survive a 4 or 5 hurricane. I suppose the Cubans and Hispaniola get through it with houses that are of such low value that they can just take the hits?"

No. No no no.

Building hurricane proof buildings is really not that big a deal. the primary factor for damage is water.... so its only the stuff actually on the coast that is at risk... and most of the massive coastal condo developements can absolutely shrug of a Cat 5 with no problems. There is no debris to cause a problem for them because they are on the coast.

to put this in perspective... if there is a big hurricane coming for Orange Beach.. people actually go TO the beach. not away from it. that is those that own condos in the those big buildings.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 09, 2017 10:59 PM  

@77
If global earnings occurring the hurricanes would be developing further north and moving further north. Lookup the historical freeze zones. IIRC, So. Caroline used to be able to grow oranges.

Anonymous Casey September 09, 2017 10:59 PM  

@58

Bullshit

http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/hurricanes/dazed-cedar-key-deals-with-the-aftermath-of-hurricane-hermine/2292155

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 09, 2017 11:00 PM  

@77
Facts not reason will satisfy snowflakes.

Blogger JACIII September 09, 2017 11:05 PM  

'Merica - Florida Man don't give a f**k!
Kite surfing hurricane

Blogger VFM #7634 September 09, 2017 11:06 PM  

sounds like the situation in Mobile. but Ivan ran right up the bay and it was a Cat 5... and mobile wasn't destroyed.

@62 Nate
Except that Ivan was only a Cat 1 or 2 when it was hitting Mobile...

Anonymous Raw Cringe September 09, 2017 11:14 PM  

Hail Mary, full of grace, the Lord is with thee. Blessed art thou among women, and blessed is the fruit of they womb, Jesus. Holy Mary, Mother of God, pray for us sinners, now and at the hour of our death. Amen.

Blogger Kristophr September 09, 2017 11:18 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Kristophr September 09, 2017 11:22 PM  

Here is a local vid from the Bahamas. A storm surge is accompanied by a storm low tide surrounding it. All of that water has been sucked up into the ocean below the hurricane:

https://twitter.com/Kaydi_K/status/906579283950403585

Blogger Dave W. September 09, 2017 11:34 PM  

11pm update is out. Hitting Cuba knocked Irma down to a strong 3. They think it will strengthen back to a strong 4, nearly 5 when it hits SW Florida. The question is how much storm surge hits there. If it's 10 feet or over, they're screwed.

Blogger Nate September 09, 2017 11:34 PM  

"Except that Ivan was only a Cat 1 or 2 when it was hitting Mobile..."

no. Mobile was the first pass of Ivan. Hit as a strong Cat 3.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 09, 2017 11:35 PM  

@90
Nor not not.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 09, 2017 11:45 PM  

@95

I was on a tow boat during Rita, in Channelview, Tx. Rita moved east and hit Beaumont. The water was pushed out, in Channelview, and barges were in a very precarious situation. The barges were half on the shallow end and half over the channel's ledge.
Those guys in the video better not get caught when the water comes in to normal levels of the tide.

Anonymous A Former Spartan September 09, 2017 11:49 PM  

@99

Here's a coincidence: I grew up in Channelview. Rode out Alicia in the inner hallway of our 1 story home. Had to take the Great Dane out to do his business when the eye came over . . .

Anonymous Saracen III September 10, 2017 12:12 AM  

@77 newbietrader "how do you recharge your eco-friendly ride if the power grid is down?"

Flexible Solar panels - 2 on the bonnet, 4 on the roof => 1kW net. Enough for 5 mph at high noon on the flat, or soak photons all day and zip 20 miles. Not flash, but beats carrying everything.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 10, 2017 12:37 AM  

My neighbor was head of safety for Kirby. He asked my to shadow him. It was a very interesting experience.
Could not be done now, with all the "security" BS.

Anonymous Forrest Bishop September 10, 2017 12:40 AM  

((( bob kek mando ))) - ( i'm sorry you raped Andrea Dworkin and i disavow your Patriarchal Cisheteronormative Bourgeois Consciousness in shame ) wrote:likely, it will lose steam. typically they do once they hit land and all the hills and trees which have a lot more drag than open ocean.

however, Florida is rather unique in that a majority of the "land" south of Okeechobee isn't land at all. it's the Everglades, one vast swamp. and the water is often hotter than the Gulf.

so it's conceivable that it could gain strength over 'land', at least until it gets north of the Tamiami corridor.


This is the problem with Irma, its massive scale. It won't necessarily lose strength due to landfall over Florida, because it is much bigger than Florida. It can simultaneously feed from the seas on both sides of the Florida peninsula as well as from the swamplands.

The Cat 3, Cat 5 business is only one metric and not necessarily the most important one. That's the measure of average wind speeds in a small area around the center. But there are other measures, as Harvey instructs. Example, from a couple days ago-

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/07/hurricane-irma-is-not-the-most-powerful-atlantic-hurricane-ever-recorded/

They (both WUWT and MSM) are confusing wind speed and pressure drop with overall power. "Most powerful" means 'most energy conversion per unit time within a (arbitrarily) bounded system'.

For this fluid-mechanical system, total energy is cross-sectional area (perpendicular to the direction of the wind) multiplied by the mass flow through that area. Total energy is velocity-squared times total mass, in this case taken around a circuit centered on the eye. Power level is dependent on how fast that energy is converted into other forms, such as in razing Miami, so it doesn't even enter the equation until landfall. Because of its record size and wind speed, Irma may be the "Most Energetic" hurricane in all of recorded history, meaning in the past few decades.

None of the graphs presented show this. Wind speed doesn't cut it, you can get 180 mph out of a backpack blower but that does not make the blower more powerful than a hurricane. It has the velocity but not the mass- the cross-section area of its output tube is tiny compared to an Irma while the fluid density is comparable. (They do use that "hurricane" comparison in the marketing.) Irma is supposedly bigger in diameter and areal extent than any recorded Atlantic hurricane, in addition to having (had) near-record speeds and pressure drops.

That horizontal, circular-spiral area roughly corresponds to the mass-flow area of all of the winds of this hurricane, and to the energy contained within it. The devastating Hurricane Andrew was tiny by comparison.


Blogger Shimshon September 10, 2017 1:05 AM  

My mother (West Palm Beach) and brother (Palm Beach) both evacuated.

Anonymous Auntie Analogue September 10, 2017 1:13 AM  

It's not that there are recently more, or more powerful hurricane, it's that in the regions that hurricanes strike there's been a population explosion - more dwellings, more other structures, more infrastructure, more people hit by the storms.

Blogger Adam Smith September 10, 2017 1:30 AM  

As a Houstonian, having just been through Harvey, my heart goes out to Florida. I have many relatives and friends there. These are crazy times like I've never seen or read about. Many prayer warriors at work right now. Thank you, VoxDay and Spacebunny. Our God is a good God. We will overcome and adapt...oh yeah, fuck NAZIs and National Socialism. God Bless.

Blogger Ken Prescott September 10, 2017 1:34 AM  

Prayers for those in the path of this storm.

Auntie Analogue wrote:It's not that there are recently more, or more powerful hurricane, it's that in the regions that hurricanes strike there's been a population explosion - more dwellings, more other structures, more infrastructure, more people hit by the storms.

Hurricanes seem to go in a 60-year peak to peak cycle, and that is just long enough for people to forget about the hurricane risk.

Blogger Ken Prescott September 10, 2017 1:36 AM  

The only good thing about Harvey is that it apparently stirred the Gulf waters enough to mitigate the summer anoxic zone.

Blogger Ken Prescott September 10, 2017 1:41 AM  

Cataline Sergius wrote:
Again the whole veteran of Typhoon parties thing.

And while I am on that subject, younger members of the Dread Ilk who riding out the storm in an alcoholic stupor. Please resist the temptation...powerful as it apparently always is... To Spiderman your way up the side of a tall building.

Yeah, it will work... Temporarily.

Hurricane winds aren't that reliable.


Tying a corner of a bedsheet to each of your ankles and jumping into the wind while holding the upper two corners with your hands is also not recommended.

(Was there for the Typhoon Party where that DID happen. Cue R. Kelly's "I Believe I Can Fly.")

Anonymous Mr. Rational September 10, 2017 2:00 AM  

I am in correspondence once removed with someone assisting with victims of hurricane Harvey.  Word is, it's very bad there... and the convoy is only stopped over in Memphrica (Memphis) on the way to Texas.

This is not a human tragedy.  It's an African disaster.

Anonymous Mr. Rational September 10, 2017 2:24 AM  

Cataline Sergius wrote:I'm not a climatologist by any manner or means but from a physics standpoint I don't see how Irma can maintain it's energy once it hits Florida.
It won't maintain it all, but with heaping shitloads of water at unprecedented temperature on both sides of the peninsula it will have vast amounts of energy available until it is completely over land.

It's just too diffuse to keep going isn't it?
It won't be until it is.

JaimeInTexas wrote:Watching high pressure systems. Are they stationary, are they moving, which way?
The cold front which passed me a few days ago has already hit Irma.  The front is past the Atlantic coast with no visible effect in Florida.  The track of the storm is still predicted to be NNW.  It is going to be... interesting.

Anonymous Incurvatus September 10, 2017 4:41 AM  

posted 0440 Eastern time.
Interesting to see the weather stations on Wunderground-com reporting from the KeyWest. Gusts 60+mph, sustained in the 40s. Not crushing yet.

Blogger Freddy September 10, 2017 4:51 AM  

Anthropogenic climate warming for certain. Therefore humans by implication have the ability to manipulate and weaponize the weather. My brother showed me his dream house last year on Sanibel Is (Ft Meyers), " can handle a Cat 5." He's not leaving the island. I got put in Fake Book jail(still incarcerated) for 3 days because I linked a Geoengineering article mentioning head of spook central,JB and operation Popeye (cloud seeding on the Ho Chi Minh Trail in Vietnam)....hot potato. They are controlling the weather, eff yeah!

Anonymous Vinus Maximus September 10, 2017 5:49 AM  

Just read that Tampa hasn't had a direct impact of Cat 3 or higher since 1921 so most of the buildings never got the post Andrew updates.

Also, while Pinellas county (St Pete) is mostly White Hillsboro county (Tampa) is mixed. Judging by Katrina in N.O. Tampa could be a real shitshow.

Anonymous Anonymous September 10, 2017 7:09 AM  

I am in Orlando. It seems like half the state came here to escape the storm. Some of my friends from the east coast are now going back home. One guy asked how the experts could claim it was going up the east coast for 5 days and then, bam, it is now going up the west coast. (he is from the north and don't know these big storms do as they damn well please)

Where I am at, big damage is mostly if a tree comes down on your house or the windows blow out. I was without power for 3 weeks during Donna in '60 and without power for 10 days for Charlie in "04".

I grew up here when NO ONE had A/C but I sure do hate no A/C now ---- and cold showers. I hate the cold showers. (but I hate no running water even more)

I like this thread. Over a hundred comments and no one has insulted all boomers yet. That is unusual.

Pray for Floridians. We will need it.


Anonymous Avalanche September 10, 2017 7:36 AM  

@19 Hopefully they are over-reacting. I've literally seen war zones that were in better shape.

Mother Nature is no "one" to fool with. When wee petty humans get too full of themselves (cause, riiiight you climate a$$hats, the FLEAS are heatin' up the dog...), She shakes a bit and knocks the fleas around. Too bad we fleas can't remember!

Anonymous Avalanche September 10, 2017 7:41 AM  

@23 I have no confidence in forecasters at this point.

Friend of mine with property in Key West says, he watches the European 'weather tracking' -- because he does not trust the U.S. weather tracking anymore... They don't always seem to be telling the truth -- they were showing "horrific winds and every tourist should flee Key West" (a couple of bad storms ago) -- he was out walking the beach at Key West with his morning coffee; it was NOT what they were reporting! (And he lost some $10,000 for that holiday weekend -- canceled tourists!)

('course, I think the European weather tracking MAY be mainly based on the U.S. tracking -- but perhaps they report it more honestly? Although, since they have "properties" (islands) in the Caribbean, perhaps they DO track it themselves and report it.)

Anonymous Avalanche September 10, 2017 7:50 AM  

@40 Have several weeks of clean, drinkable water stored in your home.

Too late now, but a friend and I split a two-order of a thing called a WaterBob -- it's a food-grade thick plastic 100-gallon 'water storer.' Yah should put it in a ground-floor bathtub (on accounta the sheer weight!)! If you've got one; fill it, and it has valve to let you meter it out as you need it. Clever idea. HOPE I never have to use it (hour N. of Atlanta). I also keep 30 or so gallons of bottle water in the garage; it's what I drink (and make coffee with) and replenish.

Went to Costco yesterday with friends (Jam-packed; we've been swamped with fleeing Floridians) and the guy at the entry was holding a sign: "no water." Publix is out of water. Kroger is out. WalMart is out. At least folks are stocking up...

Anonymous Avalanche September 10, 2017 7:51 AM  

@42 Cuba usually gets the hammer before Florida, but, they seem to take care of themselves.

OR, more likely, we never hear any different...

Blogger YIH September 10, 2017 7:57 AM  

Checking in. Current track has it hitting the Keys right now, with it projected to hit Tampa (probably as a 2 or 3) at about 2am Mon. The track went from up the east coast (Thurs) to up the center of the peninsula (Fri).
I could have evac'd Fri, but with what I was seeing, the thought of being crammed into an SUV and riding 18 hours to NC made me decide to roll the dice. That, plus I've been through several of them before and my experience is that the media cranks the drama to 11 and to expect another cry of 'wolf'. As it stands now, I think I made the right choice. Everything (other than the Keys, and those have to be evacuated early) that was evac'd is now no longer even in the cone.
As you can see, power and internet still online.

Anonymous Avalanche September 10, 2017 8:00 AM  

@43 But they seem to be increasing in frequency and intensity.

Yes, of course, that what the MSM/govt WANT you to infer!! It suits their purposes hugely!!

Global warming in the past century has increased ocean temperatures about 1°F (0.5°C) which should correspond at most to about a 2.5% increase in hurricane wind speeds. If this theory is correct, an upper-end Category 3 hurricane with wind speeds of 130 mph--like Hurricane Katrina at landfall--owes 2-3 mph of its sustained winds to global warming. Hurricane wind speeds are estimated to the nearest 5 knots (5.8 mph), and one can get a general idea of what percent increase we've seen in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes due to global warming by looking at the number of high end Category 3 hurricanes (winds of 130 mph) and low end Category 4 hurricanes (135 mph winds). If we assume a 2-3 mph increase in winds of these storms is due to global warming over the past 35 years, one would expect to see a 5% increase at most in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes. An increase this small is not detectable given the current accuracy of estimating hurricane winds, and the relatively few number of of these storms that occur each year. This expected maximum 5% increase is quite a disagreement with the 80% increase found by Webster et al.! So, either the measurements are wrong, or the theory is wrong--or a combination of the two. I believe it may well be a combination of the two. The fact that the originator of the intensity theory (Kerry Emanuel) is one of the scientists who is advocating that the theory may be in error, is reason enough to doubt the theory. The formation and intensification of hurricanes are not well understood, and it would be no surprise if major revisions to intensity theory are made in the future. However, such a wide difference between the theory and the reported trends should make us suspicious of the observed data, as well.

https://www.wunderground.com/education/webster.asp

Anonymous Avalanche September 10, 2017 8:05 AM  

@66 Perhaps what you are observing is the media hype. That has a pattern of increasing severity.

You win the thread!!

Anonymous Avalanche September 10, 2017 8:10 AM  

@76 Anyone got any concrete, gut punching response to anyone wanting to talk about climate change because of this storm?

Only dialectic... You might point out fake fake fake media, so why believe them about this? But I doubt there is a way to teach climate, storms, and intensity in anything less than dialectic... (And remind them that the MSM ONLY shows the worst goriest pix of the most destruction they can find -- AND they faked rescue of the old guy in the truck and so on...

(That is, since you probably CAN'T 'teach science' with rhetoric; hit the 'lynch-pin' that is: as always, they're LYING to us!)

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 10, 2017 8:19 AM  

Irma did tbe northward turn sometime in tbe night. I guess forevasters got it right. I relieved but sad for Floridians.
Good luck and stay resolute!

Blogger Salt September 10, 2017 8:34 AM  

@118 This link will give you a light overview of a couple various modeling systems. Each has its own strengths and weaknesses.

http://home.earthlink.net/~tkurkowski/Weather-Models/weather-models.html

I'm no soothsayer, but neither do I get my weather from CNN. Most people do not read the NOAA forecaster's discussions. Because I do, I called it going up central Fla to its west coast days ago. The forecasters all had a between the lines twitchy westing bias towards that end though never stated outright. A friend here yesterday said, "You called this one." No, I didn't. I read the discussions.

A friend in Clearwater (Tampa area) said it was going up the east coast. I hope he's well hunkered down.

Blogger Cataline Sergius September 10, 2017 8:45 AM  

Tying a corner of a bedsheet to each of your ankles and jumping into the wind while holding the upper two corners with your hands is also not recommended.

(Was there for the Typhoon Party where that DID happen. Cue R. Kelly's "I Believe I Can Fly.")


I remember having to chase down an idiot, who had rigged up his wubby (field blanket) as a sail and had his roller-blades on. We had to use the HMMWV to catch up with him.

Anonymous Clay September 10, 2017 8:52 AM  

I saw someone up above mention the dread Boomers. I was born in 1961, and sometimes, I get a "pass" on that one.

However...regarding Irma & Harvey, I can still remember Camille. She was a royal bitch.

My family was watching Ole Miss play Alabama...one of the first collegiate football games ever run on prime-time, I believe.

Camille came ashore in Mississippi, and went straight up to Jackson, MS, (where I lived), and destroyed every damned thing in it's path.

Tore our roof off. Only time I can remember "huddling" with my family for just being damned scared.

Camille only exists in memories now, but you can still to this day drive down I-55 or HWY 49 to New Orleans and see how all the pine trees were retarded and bent. The ones that were flat knocked-down, were harvested or rotted by now.

I remember Camille.

Blogger Nate September 10, 2017 8:59 AM  

Heads up... latest radar is showing a big chunk of dry air inside Irma... She has become a little disorganized. This means she may in fact be weakening. She may fall apart entirely.

That's not to say she can't pull herself back together. But it is a very good sign if you say... live in Naples.

Anonymous Clay September 10, 2017 9:06 AM  

Ya know, I've always wonder what/If you could drop a few MOABS right into the eye of one of these hurricanes. Any effect?

Blogger Salt September 10, 2017 9:08 AM  

OH FFS -

"Florida authorities have issued another stern warning about Hurricane Irma: Shooting bullets into the storm won't help keep you safe.

The Pasco County Sheriff's Office tweeted late Saturday: "DO NOT shoot weapons @ (hashtag) Irma. You won't make it turn around (and) it will have very dangerous side effects."

The sheriff's office, which is in the Tampa Bay-area, was responding to a Facebook event page created two Florida men inviting people to shoot at Irma."

Blogger YIH September 10, 2017 9:24 AM  

Nate wrote:"If it comes up the west coast of Florida (as I believe is currently projected), it could still be a cat 1 or even a cat 2 when it hits SW Georgia. So past the state line isn't necessarily safe."

A cat 1 hurricane is just another thunderstorm.

Uh, no. Uprooted trees, killed the power for a week, lots of roof damage, closed schools for up to 2 weeks. Been there, done that.
BTW, gotta laugh at the automated storm warning messages on the radio, it's the voice of Moonman.

Anonymous Athor Pel September 10, 2017 9:25 AM  

"75. Lazarus September 09, 2017 10:15 PM

Irma down to Cat 3 right now. Prayers answered.

I was in Placencia Belize a few years back. Most building are on stilts so there is no lower floor. If there is a lower floor, it is all cement. That is how you build in an area subject to storm surge.

If the houses built in Houston were similar, less damage. Instead, cookie-cutter architechture is the norm.
"



The houses in Houston are just like the houses in many inland American cities, timber framed slab homes. Most of those that flooded were built right up to the edge of Buffalo Bayou which goes across the whole city.

Buffalo Bayou is the only drainage channel for two very large flood control reservoirs. They both filled up and had to be drained otherwise the levees would get over-topped and completely destroy the levees. This drainage was dumped into an already full Buffalo Bayou causing it to go even higher. It was either that or flood several times more area catastrophically. There was literally nothing else they could have done.

Blogger Nate September 10, 2017 9:30 AM  

"Uh, no. Uprooted trees, killed the power for a week, lots of roof damage, closed schools for up to 2 weeks. Been there, done that."

meh.

I can show you examples of tropical storms doing the same thing. I suggest maybe you shouldn't build your county out of cardboard.

Blogger bw September 10, 2017 9:40 AM  

Well, we've wound up being dead center over here on Nature Coast.
Good times.
Will be mitigated somewhat by then, but doesn't need to stay just off coast.
Storm surge for coast around here is devastating at 1ft/mi depths.

Blogger Student in Blue September 10, 2017 9:54 AM  

@127. Cataline Sergius
I remember having to chase down an idiot, who had rigged up his wubby (field blanket) as a sail and had his roller-blades on. We had to use the HMMWV to catch up with him.

I hope he got some wall-to-wall counseling for that. You do not treat your woobie that way.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 10, 2017 9:57 AM  

I visited the Miss. gulf coast for the first time in 1979, IIRC, and Camille's effect still were visible, in the landscape and the people I met that experienced Camille.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 10, 2017 10:00 AM  

And deed restrictions very likley requires slab construction and disallow building on stilts.

Blogger Salt September 10, 2017 10:23 AM  

Worse storm I remember here in NC was the March 11-15, 1993 Storm of the Century, a Nor-easter. Came up the coast from Florida. Blew hurricane force stink for near 18 hours. There was no warning. Lost power and lots of damage, but a bunch of us were at a local bar on the waterfront. No power, but the beer was cold.

Anonymous Clay September 10, 2017 11:07 AM  

Sorta funny. You hear about churches getting the "weather wrath of GOD" all the time, and the bar next door isn't touched.

Anonymous BBGKB September 10, 2017 11:36 AM  

There's a lot of that and folk that don't have the money for plywood, hurricane shutters, or anything else

If you have lived in a hurricane zone for years you could have picked up plywood for free & stored it. The time to get your disaster supplies is before the disaster.

I'm not sure what the deal is with all of these hurricanes that are blowing through these days.

Tropical storms are always being generated off the coast of Africa this time of year. We got up to H in the names before one became a Hurricane to notice.

frankly, i don't think insurance should even be allowed on any house built on a barrier island or lower than ASL +20'

If that was the case you would only see people building with insulated concrete forms near the beach.

take the Houston deal. there wasn't anything particularly "powerful" about Harvey

Houston's stupid Affirmative Action workers didn't open up the dams until after the first day of rain when they got high. If they wanted to avoid damage they would have drained them when they got first warning

Blogger James Dixon September 10, 2017 11:43 AM  

> Worse storm I remember here in NC was the March 11-15

The worst storms here tend to be blizzards. But for hurricanes, this xkcd comic is still good: https://xkcd.com/1407/

Blogger James Dixon September 10, 2017 11:44 AM  

> Houston's stupid Affirmative Action workers didn't open up the dams until after the first day of rain when they got high.

Absolutely true.

Blogger ((( bob kek mando ))) - ( i'm sorry you raped Andrea Dworkin and i disavow your Patriarchal Cisheteronormative Bourgeois Consciousness in shame ) September 10, 2017 12:13 PM  

116. markstoval September 10, 2017 7:09 AM
I like this thread. Over a hundred comments and no one has insulted all boomers yet. That is unusual.



in a thread that has NOTHING to do with Boomers ... a Boomer has to make it a thread about Boomers.

*headshake*

completely unexpected, that is.

Blogger bw September 10, 2017 12:21 PM  

a Boomer has to make it a thread about Boomers

Could at least be about
Boomer Sooners

Blogger bw September 10, 2017 12:30 PM  

and disallow building on stilts

Everything required to be elevated - done mostly with concrete

Anonymous Mr. Rational September 10, 2017 12:41 PM  

Looking Glass wrote:Stable (relatively), storable fuel is always king for a reason.
The only fuels that are really stable over years are alcohols and LPG.  LPG can be hard to find in bulk, and it appears that even "flex-fuel" vehicles will not run on E100.

On the other hand, if you have an EV and a bunch of PV panels you can make your own "fuel".  I drive a PHEV and haven't filled it since June, still have more than half a tank left.  I see @102 hits this point too.  Basically, PEVs are good as a civil-defense measure due to energy flexibility.

Blogger ((( bob kek mando ))) - ( i'm sorry you raped Andrea Dworkin and i disavow your Patriarchal Cisheteronormative Bourgeois Consciousness in shame ) September 10, 2017 12:45 PM  

141. BBGKB September 10, 2017 11:36 AM
If that was the case you would only see people building with insulated concrete forms near the beach.



and the problem with that would be?

listen, i've worked in some of these barrier island communities like this ritzy polo grounds:
http://www.windsorflorida.com/

or this golf / sailing community
http://www.grandharborverobeachproperties.com/pages/Details.htm?gclid=Cj0KEQjwxdPNBRDml9-C3-PUlZEBEiQADD5NSe_MCpdkg7wjUsZtW0i-NUYmoZIlwNsYxGA0TmziiPwaAgS88P8HAQ

prices look to be down from the peak in GH yet, when i was there it was a half mill just to get into one side of a duplex.

these are for *rich* people and rich people only. if you aren't a millionaire or wealthier, you ain't living there.

which means, what?

that insurance on coastal built homes is a wealth transfer program from the middle class and poor, who HAVE to live inland because they can't afford property on the coast, to the ultra-wealthy morons who build multi-million dollar properties in 'total destruction' zones.

i'm not even advocating a 'tax the wealthy' plan in order to correct this. let the same policy apply to all.

either 'total destruction' zone properties need to have their premiums set high enough so that you pay the replacement cost of the property in premiums every 20 years ( on the outside ), or they need to refuse insurance altogether and the homeowner can deal with his own liabilities.

that will put an immediate stop to all these retards building in stupid places.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 10, 2017 1:23 PM  

And exarcerbated the flooding in some areas.

Blogger Sheila4g September 10, 2017 1:23 PM  

@119 Avalanche: "Too late now, but a friend and I split a two-order of a thing called a WaterBob . . ."

I did the same with a friend. If it works as claimed, it's a simple and inexpensive way to have sufficient drinking water to shelter in place for a short while.

Advice for having emergency supplies at a height to avoid floodwaters seems such basic common sense to me - yet all the pity-party stories online about Harvey show people who put their cats up in the attic with food and water yet left all their possessions (mostly plastic junk from the photos) just strewn about. People had days to make a few basic, common sense behavioral adjustments and didn't. MPAI.

@141 BBGKB: "Houston's stupid Affirmative Action workers didn't open up the dams until after the first day of rain when they got high. If they wanted to avoid damage they would have drained them when they got first warning."

Excellent point. A lot of Houston's flooding didn't have to happen. But again, as others pointed out, it was primarily an African and Mestizo problem. That's why the Guard was needed as well - to keep the feral population in check. Third world parasites in a no-zoning affirmative action run city = Houston. There are certainly plenty of stupid White people, too, but it's a far smaller percent of the population.

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 10, 2017 1:25 PM  

Creating other issues and not enough elevation. Electrically isolated sacrificial first level.

Anonymous cc September 10, 2017 1:26 PM  

Live in the Sarasota/Manatee County area. Staying put with family. The house is 37 ft ASL - which is pretty high for coastal FL. We have a concrete block house built to the 2012 FL building code. The steel hurricane shutters are installed on all the doors and windows. We have a gas stove and plenty of food, water (and booze). Right now we are experiencing occasional heavy downpours with wind gusts up to 40 mph. The current SWAG for peak winds is around 6 to 7 pm ET tonight.

Blogger bw September 10, 2017 2:00 PM  

concrete block house built to the 2012 FL building code

Yep. Mostly what's been done of late, from what I see daily.

Sarasota/Manatee County area

Relative's family compound on mouth of river on the Bay, can see Egmont. Within feet of house on normal higher tide, lol.

Things will happen, and then Things will continue.

Blogger Cataline Sergius September 10, 2017 2:05 PM  

Student in Blue wrote:@127. Cataline Sergius

I remember having to chase down an idiot, who had rigged up his wubby (field blanket) as a sail and had his roller-blades on. We had to use the HMMWV to catch up with him.

I hope he got some wall-to-wall counseling for that. You do not treat your woobie that way.


INDEED.

Anonymous Mr. Rational September 10, 2017 3:03 PM  

Sheila4g wrote:as others pointed out, it was primarily an African and Mestizo problem. That's why the Guard was needed as well - to keep the feral population in check.
That is exactly what I'm getting second-hand from folks on the ground doing assitance.  FEMA police (does that really exist?) are escorting aid group vehicles to fuel and providing security so they aren't stolen.  Too many ferals.

Really, we need to be shooting ferals.

Blogger ((( bob kek mando ))) - ( i'm sorry you raped Andrea Dworkin and i disavow your Patriarchal Cisheteronormative Bourgeois Consciousness in shame ) September 10, 2017 4:26 PM  

155. Mr. Rational September 10, 2017 3:03 PM
Really, we need to be shooting ferals.



when i was growing up, people kept shot guns and rifles in the back window of their pickups.

and signs declaring "Trespassers Will Be Shot On Sight" were common.

frankly, i don't think society has improved since we allowed the judges and lawyers to do away with that.

Anonymous How to Stop The Hurricane September 10, 2017 5:00 PM  

This is how to put an end to the menace called hurricane

Anonymous BBGKB September 10, 2017 5:17 PM  

Avalanche: "Too late now, but a friend and I split a two-order of a thing called a WaterBob . . ."

If we are plugging our favorite prepper gear mine are the 5 gallon bucket of shelf stable food & the 8 man tent UVPAQLITE
https://www.uvpaqlite.com/the-uv-paqlite-1.html

FEMA police (does that really exist?) are escorting aid group vehicles to fuel and providing security so they aren't stolen. Too many ferals.

FL is asking for 1000 volunteer nurses. About that gender pay gap, Murses ask for overtime & incentive pay for extra hours. You can still be ghetto lottery sued by Latrina's 21 crack babies (((Better call Saul))) while volunteering.

A family sued the nurses & hospital after Katrina because they didn't evacuate a 600+lbs man, who needed machines to survive, before 600lbs worth of babies. Reporters asked the nurses involved who stayed working without power/water/HVAC in over 100deg temps if they would do anything different. The professional answer was no, but I would have been tempted to say "I would run away like over 1/3 of NO cops, and spoken truthfully about the lack of DieVerseCity amount those that stayed to care for patients.

Blogger rycamor September 10, 2017 10:51 PM  

Well, I'm in the outer bands of Irma now, and power is down. Waiting for mobile networks to go down next. Cheers y'all!

Anonymous How to Stop The Hurricane September 11, 2017 2:51 AM  

It has happened before. Why not again. This is unbelievable, but real.

Blogger Lourdes M. Velandia-Calderon September 14, 2017 9:07 AM  

Contacted relative in AL to evacuate but husband and sons wanted to stay. I stayed glued to the weather channel and youtube weather reporting to pay attention to the storm surge, my greatest concern. The day the worst of the storm passed -- on the E coast -- we were already outside driving in the vicinity to check up on my parents. Their street was flooded but husband's CRV could drive thru it. But not my Corolla, I would've had to go back. My thinking is that had we gotten more rain, had that storm stalled above us like Harvey did, we would've had flooded homes. Terrible for my parents since they live on a 1st FL. Myself, I am totally unprepared for a CAT 5 hurricane. My neighbor also stayed although his wife would've preferred to evacuate. Their older son did. So I reasoned with my neighbor and made him promise that if ever there was a CAT 5 he would evacuate. God help us.

Blogger Lourdes M. Velandia-Calderon September 14, 2017 9:19 AM  

Lol

Blogger Lourdes M. Velandia-Calderon September 14, 2017 9:24 AM  

Lol!!!

Blogger Lourdes M. Velandia-Calderon September 14, 2017 9:33 AM  

Thank you for sharing the link. Not a fan of CNN here. And during Irma wanted solid reporting so went between Weather Ch. to YouTube reports/daily updates done by 2 guys. Still ready to evacuate E. coast if needed because I was so concerned about the storm surge flooding. One friend evacuated as late as Thursday late morning. It was a torturous week to say the least.

Blogger Lourdes M. Velandia-Calderon September 14, 2017 10:00 AM  

Thanks for sharing this. How is your friend in Key W doing? And if I may ask his business' name? Now I know who really knows about real weather reporting sites. Next time I go down to Key W I'm going to ask some business owners their best tips on weather monitoring sites.

Blogger Lourdes M. Velandia-Calderon September 14, 2017 10:08 AM  

Thank you for this info. I am informing myself about geo-engineering and was focusing on the white criss-cross lines in the sky but now dealing with Irma has taken me to a different level of geo-engineering. We're fine, nothing happened thank God, move on.. they say.. but it's not over for me.
I will look into "Anthropogenic climate warming" and "JB and operation Popeye (cloud seeding on the Ho Chi Minh Trail in Vietnam)"
Thank you!!

Blogger Lourdes M. Velandia-Calderon September 14, 2017 1:58 PM  

Thank you for this info. I am informing myself about geo-engineering and was focusing on the white criss-cross lines in the sky but now dealing with Irma has taken me to a different level of geo-engineering. We're fine, nothing happened thank God, move on.. they say.. but it's not over for me.
I will look into "Anthropogenic climate warming" and "JB and operation Popeye (cloud seeding on the Ho Chi Minh Trail in Vietnam)"
Thank you!!

Post a Comment

Rules of the blog
Please do not comment as "Anonymous". Comments by "Anonymous" will be spammed.

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts