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Tuesday, March 06, 2018

Free traders freak out

It's not hard to know who doesn't have a real case when you see free traders going full-retard over two tariffs.
Trump needs to be impeached immediately to head off the trade war he has declared. His appointees who support that trade war, namely Commerce Secretary Ross and Trade Representative Lighthizer, should be fired immediately.

I am not trying to punish him, I am trying to stop the trade war. He has turned himself into a colossal mistake made by American voters in 2016. I don’t care whether he goes to the Leavenworth Penitentiary or Mar-a-Lago. I voted for Gary Johnson.

Let me give you a list of pertinent facts that cannot be denied:

• U.S. GDP has never been as high as now
• The number of U.S. jobs has never been higher than now
• Trumps claims he wants to increase the number of jobs. For whom? There are no U.S. residents left to hire. The Fed chair said we are at full employment and maybe have more people employed than full employment (you need a certain amount of unemployed because people quit, get fired, go to college or grad school, take vacations between jobs, etc.)
• The Smoot-Hawley Tariff bill (Smoot and Hawley were Republicans) was a large campaign issue in the 1928 presidential race. Republican Hoover said he would sign it. He won and took office in March 1929. He did sign it.
• The stock market crashed repeatedly starting on Black Tuesday October 29, 1929. “...by 1932 stocks were worth only about 20 percent of their value in the summer of 1929.”
(http://www.history.com/topics/1929-stock-market-crash) A similar thing happened to real estate, although there were few statistics on real estate back then. They used a study of real estate prices in the New York Times during the Depression to retroactively create the stats.
• Before the 1929 crash, the stock market was booming with shoe-shine-boy/taxi-driver speculative mania fueled by high-loan-to-value-ratio margin loans. There are lower loan-to-value-ratio margin loans now. But they contributed to the recent drop in stocks forcing some to sell to meet margin calls.
• In 1932, when FDR was elected, the U.S. national debt-to-GDP ratio was 17%. Today it is 105% meaning the U.S, government is in no position to provide the sort of government financial help it did during the New Deal.
• In 1929, international trade was 7% of world GDP. Today, it is 25%. Furthermore, about 40% to 60% of all imports coming to the U.S. now were, in turn, imported into the exporting country to make the product in question—including raw material and manufactured components from the U.S.
• “Buying American” today is near impossible. Virtually all manufactured products are a sort of international all-star team as depicted in the essay “I, pencil.” 
Let's address those arguments in order.
  1. US debt has never been higher. US population has never been higher. That's why US GDP is at record highs, not semi-free trade.
  2. There have never been more Americans out of the work force. The record employment is an artifact of the record population. The employment/population ratio is not anywhere near its record highs and is nearly as low as it was prior to the second wave of women entering the work force.
  3. There are currently 94.6 million Americans not in the workforce. The fact that they are not looking for jobs offered at lower average wages than 1973 does not mean that they are entirely uninterested in ever working at any wage.
  4. Smoot-Hawley had nothing to do with the Great Depression. First, the annual decline in exports from 1929 to 1933 was less than the decline from 1920 to 1922. Second, the net effect of the change in the balance of trade amounted to less than 0.3 percent of GDP.
  5. None of this garblefarbling about the stock market is relevant.
  6. The government will be in a much better position to help manufacturers when it has $500 billion in tariff income at its disposal.
  7. This is an argument for why less semi-free trade, not more, is needed.
  8. Buying American is not "near impossible" and it will get considerably easier and more cost-effective when imported goods are taxed.
In other news, I was very flattered when Steve Keen suggested that I serve as his substitute in a live interview tomorrow concerning on US tariffs, their global implications, and the concerns of a trade war. Of course, I agreed. So, I will be on Dialogue with Yang Rui tomorrow, which can be seen live here.

Labels: ,

119 Comments:

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother March 06, 2018 2:03 PM  

We are taking FlugzeugabwherKanonen. We must be over the target!

Blogger James Dixon March 06, 2018 2:05 PM  

Yeah, the line "There are no U.S. residents left to hire" is a flat out lie. Anyone who's looked at the employment ratio figures knows that.

Blogger Akulkis March 06, 2018 2:06 PM  

No comments on his blog.

Figures. So typical for this sort of lying jerk.

Blogger Steve March 06, 2018 2:10 PM  

I voted for Gary Johnson.

Lol.

Blogger Stickwick Stapers March 06, 2018 2:11 PM  

Trump needs to be impeached immediately to head off the trade war he has declared.

Trump was overheard by staffers to have kicked it off by stating, "One, two, three, four, I declare a trade war." There are unconfirmed reports that he followed this up with, "Five, six, seven, eight, try to cut the jobless rate."

Blogger Akulkis March 06, 2018 2:13 PM  

We need to raise the annual H1-B quota...because 2,000,000 unemployed and under-employed skilled IT workers isn't enough -- some IT personnel are *STILL* American, and that is just unacceptable! [Spins Bowtie]

Blogger OGRE March 06, 2018 2:13 PM  

Just goes to show how 'conservative' most of these guys are. The US financed its government almost entirely by tarrifs prior to WWI, and it wasn't till WWII and Bretton Woods that income tax became the primary source of federal revenue. Coincidentally the US economy was at its strongest when tariffs were highest, although admittedly theres many other factors affecting that. If conservatives were really about bringing back 'the good old days' then they should realize this is a step in that direction. But we all know what they really stand for...

Blogger Resident Moron™ March 06, 2018 2:14 PM  

"Steve Keen suggested that I serve as his substitute"

Popcorn stocks spike!

Blogger Akulkis March 06, 2018 2:15 PM  

Translation: "I voted for a guy who, upon receiving a firearm as a gift, threw it into a trash can less than 10 minutes later."

Blogger Akulkis March 06, 2018 2:19 PM  

@OGRE

They are Mensheviks to the Democrat's Bolsheviks.

The only difference between then is disagreement on what timeline to use to turn the country into a worker's paradise like North Korea, China, Cuba, it the now defunct Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries.

Blogger James Dixon March 06, 2018 2:20 PM  

As for his concerns that the market would crash on Monday? Yeah, about that: "At the end of trading, most of the major stock market averages were up over 1% for the session. Specifically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead roughly 337 points; the broader S&P 500 Index was up 30 points; and the NASDAQ was higher by 73 points." From http://www.valueline.com/Markets/Daily_Updates/Stock_Market_Today__March_5,_2018.aspx

Blogger SouthRon March 06, 2018 2:20 PM  

@7 Ogre,

They don't stand for anything. They lie down for it.

Anonymous Anonymous March 06, 2018 2:24 PM  

'Yeah, the line "There are no U.S. residents left to hire" is a flat out lie. Anyone who's looked at the employment ratio figures knows that.'

Even if the statement was true, having more jobs then people is a desirable state for the majority of people. Yet somehow these people always fail to mention that.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan March 06, 2018 2:32 PM  

Zerohedge has up a headline "Trump open to tariff changes stocks rebound", so the Great Negotiator makes his move.

Blogger Aeoli March 06, 2018 2:35 PM  

I voted for Gary Johnson.

https://heartiste.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/scorceselaugh.gif?w=326&zoom=2

Blogger B.J. March 06, 2018 2:36 PM  

Trump is a pragmatist. If it fails, he'll try something else.

Blogger OGRE March 06, 2018 2:38 PM  

@10 Akulkis

yup. they're the illusionary antithesis intended to create the desired synthesis

Blogger peppermint88 March 06, 2018 2:40 PM  

There are no U.S. residents left to hire. The Fed chair said we are at full employment and maybe have more people employed than full employment

This "person" has no idea how Millennials and GenZ live and how they look at old Simpsons episodes from the early 90s when Homer's biggest concern was that Mr. Burns didn't respect him. I know several Millennials who would love to beat the shit out of him for a chance to apply online for his job.

Blogger Rick March 06, 2018 2:46 PM  

Imagine the heart attack this guy will have when he discovers he was wrong about everything.
All conversions end with Gary Johnson.
Let it be written.
Let it be done.

Blogger Phelps March 06, 2018 2:48 PM  

I voted for Gary Johnson.

See, folks, THAT is how you establish yourself as a credible source of mainstream reliability and steady wisdom.

Blogger dienw March 06, 2018 2:50 PM  

There are 95 million Americans out of work. Under Obama, the hiring preference/emphasis was for illegals and imports; AFAIK, that state of affairs hasn't changed. If the 310 million population count of the U.S. is for actual U,S. citizens, then the 95 million number means is a sizable amount and means the unemployment percentage figure is in the teens; if the 310 figure includes the 130 million illegals, imports (h1,2,..b and Moslems) then the actual American population is nearer to 200 million; then the 95 million number is a national disaster.

This is a wild estimate and I will gladly be corrected; but, in no way are the published government employment/unemployment telling us the reality.

Blogger VFM #7634 March 06, 2018 2:55 PM  

1) He believes the official unemployment rate.
2) He fears a "trade war", which essentially means that he believes it will somehow hurt the country with the biggest trade deficit far more than those with trade surpluses and already huge tariffs and barriers on products from the country with the biggest trade deficit.

Conclusion: this guy is completely tarded.

Blogger Josh (the sexiest thing here) March 06, 2018 3:02 PM  

This "person" has no idea how Millennials and GenZ live and how they look at old Simpsons episodes from the early 90s when Homer's biggest concern was that Mr. Burns didn't respect him. I know several Millennials who would love to beat the shit out of him for a chance to apply online for his job.

If millennials can't get jobs it's because they're completely useless.

Blogger Nate March 06, 2018 3:06 PM  

"This "person" has no idea how Millennials and GenZ live and how they look at old Simpsons episodes from the early 90s when Homer's biggest concern was that Mr. Burns didn't respect him. I know several Millennials who would love to beat the shit out of him for a chance to apply online for his job."

which they would promptly lose by being shit employees... showing up late... doing no actual work... spending all day with their face in a phone.

Shut up dipshit. Its not like we don't have to live and work with you people all the time. You're the worst generation ever. You're literally hopeless.

And we have to hire you because there is no one else.

you wonder why we try to make due with robots and automation? Its because you suck.

Blogger Dave March 06, 2018 3:07 PM  

garblefarbling

Good one. Yes, full retard as you stated; he teed it up for you.

Can't wait to hear/see live interview. Is it truly live/live uneditable? Hope so.

Blogger Josh (the sexiest thing here) March 06, 2018 3:08 PM  


• “Buying American” today is near impossible. Virtually all manufactured products are a sort of international all-star team as depicted in the essay “I, pencil.”


And yet American manufacturing output is almost at the pre recession record high.

Blogger Nathan Bruno March 06, 2018 3:12 PM  

@24

And they all have eating disorders and want to tell you about them.

--

America needs to lose the escape valve of extend-and-pretend, which includes losing this escape valve of being able to import slaves. It's moral rot to import slaves to pay payroll taxes so that every citizen can be kept on this side of death by SSI disability payments..so long as they do and think what their masters want them to do and think this week. Sounds like a trade war might reteach Americans the virtue of honest labor.

Blogger Nate March 06, 2018 3:15 PM  

'Buying American is not "near impossible" and it will get considerably easier and more cost-effective when imported goods are taxed.'

every stich of clothing I am wearing was made in america. Every piece of funiture in the room I am sitting in was made in America. I am drinking american bourbon out of a glass that was made in america.

Yes... the jeans cost 70 bucks instead of... whatever jeans cost where the peasants buy them. Whatever. these are made in america and they a large extra piece of fabric in them to make room for my giant american balls.

Eat me chinaman.

Blogger Doug Cranmer March 06, 2018 3:15 PM  

We've been sold garbage steel by the Japanese the last 50 years.

No doubt about Chinese quality.

Time to bring big steel home.

Blogger Dave March 06, 2018 3:16 PM  

So if we search this retard's history we are sure to find him calling out the EU for the trade war which resulted when they enacted steel and aluminum tarriffs even higher than what POTUS has floated.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother March 06, 2018 3:20 PM  

I paid 50.00 more for a pair of Double H steel toes, because they are made in America. Because they won't fall apart, unlike communist China made Rocky boots. As the Double H sales guy says when he visits Cavender's Boot City,

"How many cowboys y'all think commie China has running around in it?"

Blogger jimmy_the_freak March 06, 2018 3:20 PM  

The most appropriately non-ironic response to this idiot's ramblings:

"Ah, you talk like a fag, and your shit's all retarded."

Blogger Ben Cohen March 06, 2018 3:23 PM  

Josh, take out the military from manufacturing output. Has that recovered?

This is a big win for Trump. He can use the tariff revenue to reduce payroll taxes and spend on infrastructure.

Regardless of what happens this is very entertaining.

Blogger Killua March 06, 2018 3:27 PM  

There have never been more Americans out of the work force. The record employment is an artifact of the record population

And thats without mentioning underemployment (people with college degrees doing jobs below their qualification), people who want to work full time but can only find part time jobs, people who have to take two jobs in order to pay the bills, and overall the fact that jobs are not paying that well.

Blogger dienw March 06, 2018 3:29 PM  

From the Census Bureau:
Are undocumented residents (aliens) in the 50 states included in the apportionment population counts?
Yes, all people (citizens and noncitizens) with a usual residence in the 50 states are to be included in the census and thus in the apportionment counts.


Federation for American Immigration Reform gives a figure of illegals at 12.5 millions, not counting those who aren't tracked; so, let's double that at least. We're down to around 280 million true Americans.

The Center for Immigration Studies puts the h1b figure at 600K with 65K being added every year; yet, the Center declares the 600K to be only an estimate as there are probably many more but the figures are not collected:
Over and above the economic issues (just sketched) the H-1B program presents a conceptual/arithmetic problem as well. While I estimate later in this report that there are well over 600,000 aliens working in the United States because of this program, the number used in the debates about this program is typically 65,000.

This number is both narrowly accurate and misleading. It is misleading because is suggests a small-sized program; it is accurate because that is one of the three annual allocations of new visas for the program. Using the 65,000 number in connection with the H-1B program is a little like considering life with an 800-pound gorilla by focusing instead on his birth weight of three or four pounds.


There are other hb categories.

We're down to under 280 million real Americans. Now, take away the retired and not wanting to work, those under 15 y.o who cannot legally work, and those who are incapacitated; that brings us 120-140 million who could work if there were jobs.
This puts us at ~65% unemployment rate for real Americans.

I obviously am not a numbers guy; but still, the real unemployment number has to be 25% or higher.

Blogger OneWingedShark March 06, 2018 3:37 PM  

Akulkis wrote:We need to raise the annual H1-B quota...because 2,000,000 unemployed and under-employed skilled IT workers isn't enough -- some IT personnel are *STILL* American, and that is just unacceptable! [Spins Bowtie]
Well, there is this new Google lawsuit, which is predicated on Google illegally discriminating in hiring (essentially no withe males).

And about five or six months ago there was a push in congress to expand H1Bs for IT/tech, if you'll recall.

Blogger pyrrhus March 06, 2018 3:38 PM  

"The record employment is an artifact of the record population. "

True. But the record unemployment rate is a statistical fraud created under the Clinton Administration, which drastically improved this statistic by kicking workers coming off unemployment out of the work force. As previously calculated by BLS, the unemployment rate would be something like 8%.

Blogger peppermint88 March 06, 2018 3:41 PM  

310 figure includes the 130 million illegals, imports (h1,2,..b and Moslems) then the actual American population is nearer to 200 million; then the 95 million number is a national disaster.

It's not that bad, the 95 million includes non-Americans too which are less likely to work than Americans. What you need to look at is the percentage of White American men between 18 and 65 who have full time jobs. The census bureau has that data, I found it last year but I don't remember where exactly. I'd like to know the difference between over 35 and under 35, which I couldn't find last time I checked.

It wasn't the bottom 50% unemployed, it was the bottom 20%. Terrible, but survivable provided the top 80% of men stops messing around with the bottom 20% of women, pairs off with a woman of comparable standing, gets married and has kids.

Blogger OneWingedShark March 06, 2018 3:44 PM  

Josh (the sexiest thing here) wrote:If millennials can't get jobs it's because they're completely useless.
Or it could be that the convergence of HR is far more widespread than most people realize -- there's a lawsuit against Google by a recruiter alleging that they flat-out instructed him to purge out all people who weren't minorities or women.

Blogger Gary March 06, 2018 3:45 PM  

The Fed deficits don't really matter at all.
It's the trade deficit that has the potential to kill a nation (we Brits are trembling).

I'm not sure America (FedGov) and its people could now live within their means on a voluntary basis.

At least Trump is trying to get trade balanced, good luck to him.

Blogger Unknown March 06, 2018 3:46 PM  

According to Q, this wasn't about money, it was about ending the sabotage of America through the steel we were buying from overseas.

Blogger Josh (the sexiest thing here) March 06, 2018 3:49 PM  

Labor force participation rates, 20 years and older, men:
71.5% white
67.5% black
80.2% hispanic or latino
66.8% native born
77.4% foreign born

Blogger peppermint88 March 06, 2018 3:51 PM  

It took decades of propaganda and rewards for bad behavior to make marriage and Christmas decorations uncool. Create a culture where work is rewarded and watch how enthusiastically Millennials embrace it. Home taping killed music and Millennials have no music of their own, they either larp as Xirs with alternative rock or GenZ with synthwave.

Blogger VFM #7634 March 06, 2018 3:52 PM  

If millennials can't get jobs it's because they're completely useless.

@Josh
Spoken like a Boomertard. Jobs don't grow on trees any more. Especially if you're a white male and have to jump through a 463-bullet-point checklist.

Idiot.

Blogger freddie_mac March 06, 2018 3:53 PM  

There are no U.S. residents left to hire. The Fed chair said we are at full employment and maybe have more people employed than full employment

Now, I haven't read any economics books, but Abbott and Costello can tell you that's a flat out lie.


ABBOTT: 5.6% are unemployed. 23% are out of work.

COSTELLO: If you are out of work you are unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, Congress said you can’t count the “Out of Work” as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.

COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!

ABBOTT: No, you miss his point.

COSTELLO: What point?

ABBOTT: Someone who doesn’t look for work can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.

COSTELLO: To whom?

ABBOTT: The unemployed.

COSTELLO: But ALL of them are out of work.

ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work gave up looking and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother March 06, 2018 3:54 PM  

Where are you trying to get a job, #7634?

Try oil and gas. Always hiring.

Blogger Nate March 06, 2018 3:59 PM  

"Spoken like a Boomertard. Jobs don't grow on trees any more. Especially if you're a white male and have to jump through a 463-bullet-point checklist."

get a job ya lazy useless bum.

Blogger Josh (the sexiest thing here) March 06, 2018 4:00 PM  


@Josh
Spoken like a Boomertard. Jobs don't grow on trees any more. Especially if you're a white male and have to jump through a 463-bullet-point checklist.

Idiot.


Best... comment... ever...

Blogger Akulkis March 06, 2018 4:03 PM  

@Josh (the sexiest thing here)

Who mal-educated the millenimill to be useless? While I'm no fan of "blank slate" theory, if you fill a child's mind with lies and b.s. for 20+ years, so that few of them can barely even do algebra, and never challenge them to accomplish ANYTHING while grow8ng up, yet giving them trophies for breathing, even if they don't even show up, then the blame goes to the adults in their lives for completely failing to do anything right to raise them properly.

Blogger VFM #7634 March 06, 2018 4:03 PM  

@Stg58

Thanks for the tip. I'm on the market as of this summer.

Blogger A rebel without a General March 06, 2018 4:05 PM  

Who's left to hire? ME, ASSHOLE I WOULD LIKE A JOB preferably an auditor.

Blogger Akulkis March 06, 2018 4:08 PM  

Chimese steel is of such poor quality that it's easy to mistake for soft metals. The sooner Chinese goods are cut off, the sooner we stop wasting money buying their junk, over and over again, because none of it lasts more than 3 years.

Blogger Derpleston March 06, 2018 4:16 PM  

What a pathetic cuck you are Nate.

"Hey guys, check out how high my status is as I sit here swilling my Napa Zinfandel and brag about my American leather purse that I pissed away my husband's money on, as she is out earning the bread for the family at her medical monopolist shakedown"

Pitiful

Blogger Looking Glass March 06, 2018 4:17 PM  

I wonder, sometimes, what Millennial, that wouldn't get off your lawn, caused you such strife?

I obviously have run in different circles, but most seemed decent enough. Give them "the rules" and most will optimize around that quite clearly. Always remember that modern education is about staying within the lines, so give people what the actual lines are and they'll normally respond. (There's always exceptions.)

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother March 06, 2018 4:23 PM  

Derpleston is upset because Nate is doing better at life than he is.

Jealousy is a stinky cologne.

Blogger tuberman March 06, 2018 4:38 PM  

He really voted for Hillary.

Blogger tuberman March 06, 2018 4:43 PM  

51. A rebel without a General

Are you up for Stonewall coming back as a rotted corpse? Missing an arm even?

Blogger Duke Norfolk March 06, 2018 4:43 PM  

dienw wrote:Now, take away the retired and not wanting to work, those under 15 y.o who cannot legally work, and those who are incapacitated; that brings us 120-140 million who could work if there were jobs.

You need to take most women out of the employment population. 'Cause that's where we want to be, isn't it? It's obviously not where we are, but...

One way or another, this guy's statement is pure B.S. And the employment stats are likewise.

Blogger RobertT March 06, 2018 4:48 PM  

I always wonder what give an author or actor or athlete the confidence to make an ass of him or herself commenting on things he knows absolutely nothing about?

Blogger Nate March 06, 2018 4:50 PM  

Omega loser is mad.

low energy.

Sad!

Blogger tuberman March 06, 2018 4:52 PM  

Parasite Economy spokesperson, says protecting the quality of our military's steel is very bad idea. China is general is shipping poorer and poorer goods to the USA as we get more dependent, but the quality of the steel it ships to our military is critical.

Treasonous whimp.

Blogger SciVo March 06, 2018 4:54 PM  

Regardless of the 1A, you'd think that at some point legacy media's malfeasance would become actionable. We're talking an industry-wide, years-long conspiracy to undermine the general peace by mass infliction of emotional distress through innuendos, half-truths, and outright lies. I mean sheesh, at least yank their broadcast licenses.

Blogger James Dixon March 06, 2018 5:00 PM  

> I mean sheesh, at least yank their broadcast licenses.

As long as the FCC sets standards for doing so, the over the air broadcast licenses are held in the public interest can can be yanked on the grounds that they're not serving those interests.

Now, cable only channels are another kettle of fish.

Blogger Josh (the sexiest thing here) March 06, 2018 5:03 PM  

As long as the FCC sets standards for doing so, the over the air broadcast licenses are held in the public interest can can be yanked on the grounds that they're not serving those interests.

I think the broadcast licenses are held by the individual stations, not the networks.

Blogger tuberman March 06, 2018 5:04 PM  

Gary wrote:The Fed deficits don't really matter at all.

It's the trade deficit that has the potential to kill a nation (we Brits are trembling).

I'm not sure America (FedGov) and its people could now live within their means on a voluntary basis.

At least Trump is trying to get trade balanced, good luck to him.



Well, Gary, I'd rather have the American deficit then the UK's pedo rate for elected officials, police, government workers, etc., and etc. It is bad here, but give me a break, your government are record setters for this.


Didn't Princess Diana say, as she hopelessly tried to flee, "These people are monsters!" Now, who do ya suppose....?? And May, and Brexit?

Honestly, I wish you luck.

Blogger James Dixon March 06, 2018 5:10 PM  

> I think the broadcast licenses are held by the individual stations, not the networks.

They are, yes. But if all of your network affiliated stations get shut down where does that leave you?

Blogger Daniel Bendele March 06, 2018 5:22 PM  

The constant hatred for millenials is really rich coming from a bunch of Boomers. There aren't any more loser millenials than there are loser Boomers. Not to mention Boomers are responsible for nearly all the negative issues millenials currently face. I make 6 figures, have a law degree, and I'm working to fix the mess you all made of our country, but keep telling me to "Get off your lawn".

Blogger Josh (the sexiest thing here) March 06, 2018 5:29 PM  

have a law degree

Gitmo. Now.

Blogger Nate March 06, 2018 5:36 PM  

Another lawyer. Jesus Christ. That's exactly what we need. Say how are the tips at your valet job?

Blogger Daniel Bendele March 06, 2018 5:36 PM  

Gary Cohn out. Bye bye traitor.

Blogger Daniel Bendele March 06, 2018 5:42 PM  

Not bad, Nate. They've really picked up since the election of the GE. Thanks for ruining my country. Don't worry! We'll do all the work to fix it with our friends from Gen Z. Enjoy your designer jeans!

Blogger SciVo March 06, 2018 5:45 PM  

I wonder, what will Trump do for an encore after destroying free trade? Murder the last unicorns?

The funny thing is that with so many of his enemies going all-in on the Smoot-Hawley/Black Tuesday/Great Depression narrative, all Trump has to do is not blink, and they will be discredited for...well, for the average American's attention span, but still. They're actually creating an incentive for him to follow through.

Have you hugged a neocon today and thanked him for his sacrifice?

Blogger Nate March 06, 2018 5:46 PM  

"Gary Cohn out. Bye bye traitor."

we do like to see the Goldman Sachs guys fail. Never gets old.

Blogger Nate March 06, 2018 5:51 PM  

"Not bad, Nate. They've really picked up since the election of the GE. Thanks for ruining my country. Don't worry! We'll do all the work to fix it with our friends from Gen Z. Enjoy your designer jeans!"

You know what hilarious? You think you're different from the idiot proggy millennials... but in reality... you just use different phrasing when you say "Check your privilege."

Still means the same thing though. Now... shut up and call me when you've actually accomplished something. Until then... I sincerely appreciate the great work you do parking my cars.

Blogger Looking Glass March 06, 2018 5:56 PM  

@70 Daniel Bendele

Gary Cohn leaks that Gary Cohn is leaving. Gen. Kelly has plugged another leak. Though it was obvious Cohn was going to leave when he didn't get the Fed Chair, and he was already going to use up his usefulness. Finance guys tend to be too obviously to the way the winds are actually blowing, thinking they run the place. Considering he was from the Vampire Squid, in some ways he wasn't wrong with that assumption.

@72 SciVo

If we get a good live action movie out of it, I'm down for Trump in The Last Unicorn.

"Free Trade" was always a hard sell, rhetorically, but it could come in with Globalist discipline and the right opportunity. It only took Trump saying, things about winning trade wars & keeping jobs at home. The details are too esoteric for the Media to report and people only care about their bottom line anyway.

It's an easy rhetorical position for Trump, while at the same time it qualifies as "doing something" when DC has "done nothing for us".

Blogger Dire Badger March 06, 2018 5:59 PM  

To be fair, Millenials never had a chance.

When Gen-X finally became parents, we could go to jail for spanking our child. Our wives left us at the drop of a hat. CPS would take our children away for trying to live within our means.

Boomers were able to raise the last normal(ish) kids, but they kicked the ladder over after them... Gen X never had a chance as parents, and thus millenials never had a chance as kids.

Blogger TontoBubbaGoldstein March 06, 2018 6:16 PM  

Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:Where are you trying to get a job, #7634?

Try oil and gas. Always hiring.



Unless you are unfortunate enough to live in Oregon.

Word is they have tons of unemployed petroleum transfer engineers as of January 1...

Blogger rycamor March 06, 2018 6:30 PM  

Dire Badger wrote:To be fair, Millenials never had a chance.

When Gen-X finally became parents, we could go to jail for spanking our child. Our wives left us at the drop of a hat. CPS would take our children away for trying to live within our means.

Boomers were able to raise the last normal(ish) kids, but they kicked the ladder over after them... Gen X never had a chance as parents, and thus millenials never had a chance as kids.


I think you are mistaken. Gen X children are by and large not millennials, but Gen Z. The millennials are mostly children of Boomers.

And no, it's not that hard to raise normal kids these days, if you have a drop of sense and a) leave the big city and b) homeschool.

Blogger VFM #7634 March 06, 2018 6:48 PM  

@77 Tonto

Not Oregon, thank goodness. I do have connections in Texas if I absolutely have to move to work in oil/gas.

I should point out that I am absolutely NOT an engineer... which is my biggest headache, since it looks like there's always jobs for those with engineering chops. But if it involves analysis, GIS, statistics, that sort of thing, I'm all in. I'll do low-skilled work too if necessary to hold myself over.

@78 rycamor
Living in a small town and being homeschooled does pose problems of a different sort.

Blogger Heian-kyo Dreams March 06, 2018 7:01 PM  

John T. Reed is a Boomer's Boomer.

Blogger Lazarus March 06, 2018 7:09 PM  

Make Steel Great Again

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother March 06, 2018 7:12 PM  

I'm one of the best salesmen out there in the process analytical world, and I have no degree in anything. I'm regularly mistaken for a chemical engineer.

You know what I do have? Balls. Giant, American balls.

Blogger tz March 06, 2018 8:13 PM  

Not just freak out, they have gone out. Cohn gone.

Not tired of winning. One less west wing wormtongue.

The only problem is most Libertarians like Austrian Economics - which is good, especially the Hayek strain, but they are stupid about trade, so I can't think of anyone who should replace Cohn, that would desire America First tariffs, yet want to audit/end the Fed and do other things to remove the drains and distortions of the economy.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother March 06, 2018 8:14 PM  

Steve Keen, Vox Day, Pat Buchanan

Short list

Anonymous Anonymous March 06, 2018 8:23 PM  

@84
Beat me to it.

C'mon, Vox, your G-E needs you...

Blogger DonReynolds March 06, 2018 8:27 PM  

9. US trade policy has ALWAYS been about protecting domestic industry from cheap foreign goods, ever since the founding of the Republic....a policy started by the first Secretary of the Treasury, Alexander Hamilton.

The US interest in Free(er) Trade is a policy of recent invention....ever since WWII, based on successive rounds of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. These negotiations were not absolute, but they did reduce the average tax in 1947 of 22 percent to an average tax of 5 percent by 1999.

The reduction of tariffs did not automatically spell Free Trade. During this same time, a number of environmental, purity, safety, copyright, consumer protection and politically-inspired laws have also disrupted any sense of Free Trade.

Blogger Welsh Woodsman March 06, 2018 8:40 PM  

This past year I've had the opportunity to work with two different subcontractors who are millennials. Both , have young families and are very hard working with good business sense. One in particular, despite being born into a white collar family, chose to start his own excavating/logging business and now employs over 15 guys. Not bad for someone who is younger than 40. No real sense of entitlement is found with either of them.
Hands down - the worst subcontractors I've worked with have been Gen -X. Constant bitching and complaining...and massive sense of entitlement. With many - their toxic personalities limit their success. Its gotten to the point, unless they are over 55 , or younger than 35, I work damn hard to avoid hiring them.

Blogger Welsh Woodsman March 06, 2018 8:54 PM  

@VFM #7634

If you live in the lower 48, surrounded by a lot of trees, you might consider looking at the timber industry. Many logging contractors are always looking for dependable, drug free guys to run equipment. Its not glamorous work, but it will give you dependable wok with a slightly higher wages for the area.It will also give you a very practical knowledge about, diesel engines, hydraulics basic welding etc...
You also never know where it could lead. The whole industry - especially logging - needs young blood. Especially those who are willing to take risk and start their own business. Personally, I know a number of older logging contractors who have become multi-millilonaires - all while doing a job their whole life that they really loved.

Blogger Welsh Woodsman March 06, 2018 9:20 PM  

I would like to see a ban on the export of our unprocessed natural resources to China...especially wood. Thanks to the crap trade bills of the last 30 years, our value added lumber manufacturing ( furniture, cabinet making etc..) has all moved to China. China now accounts for nearly 80 % of our market for domestic hardwood lumber. Over the last 15 years they have begun building sawmills In China so that they can eliminate the last part of the timber industry here in the US that is value added- hardwood lumber. To feed these mills they pay astronomically high prices for the raw logs but for the US milled lumber for the same species - they will pay 40% less. Its crushing the US hardwood sawmill manufacturers. They can hardly make any money on their lumber. For lumber manufacturers with no scruples, they stuff containers with raw logs - they used to saw - to maintain margins.
Russia banned raw log exports to China for this very reason. Yet.... the useless Republican leadership in the US Senate recently claimed that hardwood log bans realistically would never happen.

Blogger RedPillIndian March 06, 2018 9:35 PM  

Wake me up when the alt-right has a coherent response to the China threat other than tariffs and claiming that all they know how to do is copy.

redpillindian.blogspot.com

Blogger Welsh Woodsman March 06, 2018 9:56 PM  

"Wake me up when the alt-right has a coherent response to the China threat other than tariffs and claiming that all they know how to do is copy."

We will start by sending you and your tribe back. Indians are a big reason we have depressed wages and high unemployment-among whites -in tech.

Now is as good a time as ever for you and your people to be sent back so that you can -"Make India Great Again" ...not that it ever was, but hey its worth a try.

Blogger VFM #7634 March 06, 2018 10:11 PM  

@Stg58 @Welsh

Yeah, I get the impression that developing brass ones is extremely helpful. And I was actually told that my "very good attitude" would be an important asset.

Guess I just needed a kick in the pants (thanks Nate, heh) and thinking outside the box.

Blogger 罗臻 March 06, 2018 10:19 PM  

I used to watch Dialogue back in the day, surprised he is still on. That will be an interesting discussion.

Free traders also do not understand politics. Arguments about stock markets and GDP worked in 2000, they do not work in 2018. Middle America needs jobs and if it costs a few thousand Dow points, or higher inflation, or a brief recession, they'll accept it.

There's also the geopolitical angle. Edward Luttwak has proposed slowing China's growth using economic policy as part of a peaceful containment strategy. Flipping Russia away from a Chinese alliance is another part of that.

Also, even some free traders think China should be confronted, but they think Trump is doing it wrong. Yet no one did anything before and no one else in the political establishment will do anything unless the U.S. acts first. It's also for the best if Trump creates an image of being protectionist with the steel and aluminum tariffs and then takes on China bilaterally, rather than building a coalition to gang up on China. They remember the 8 country alliance that attacked in 1900.

Blogger SmockMan March 06, 2018 10:49 PM  

RedPillIndian wrote:Wake me up

Can't wake up (save me)

Blogger Silver Chief March 06, 2018 11:02 PM  

There should be a Godwin's law for discussions on economics. The first person to say "Smoot-Hawley" loses.

Unhindered global trade is a dogma/religion with some people. It is not to be dicussed empirically Open up all civil service jobs to H-1Bs and see how attitudes change.

Blogger Wynn Lloyd March 06, 2018 11:38 PM  

This is 100% true.
These guys have had their lives structured since childhood and have been punished severely for nonconformity.
They will give the older generation what they want. Unfortunately, that's made many of them undesirable as neighbors, friends, etc

Behind every screaming, idiot, twentysomething protestor, is an older professor who gets off on having all the answers.

Blogger Wynn Lloyd March 06, 2018 11:47 PM  

What if they are of Welsh heritage?
Oh wait, that's probably worse lol. Probably better for us to keep it a secret.

Blogger dvdivx March 07, 2018 12:19 AM  

The only thing open to H1B visa holders is the exit. Odd these free trade clowns had no problems with imported guns being banned like the Saiga.

Blogger Felix Bellator March 07, 2018 12:27 AM  

VFM #7634, do you write software? Calc I or better? US citizen? If so, you can probably fake engineering or at least sling code for a defense contractor. They cannot get enough code mashers, but getting the required clearance is a bit tough.

Blogger Jack Amok March 07, 2018 1:01 AM  

redpillindian.blogspot.com

Please clarify, red pill dot Indian, or red pill feather Indian? Panjit or Crazy Horse? Eats acorn soup, or drinks their own piss? (debatable which is more disgusting).

Blogger Jack Amok March 07, 2018 1:02 AM  

There should be a Godwin's law for discussions on economics. The first person to say "Smoot-Hawley" loses.

Not if someone else says "Animal Spirits" first.

Blogger wreckage March 07, 2018 1:39 AM  

I'm still a free trader, and it is entirely correct to say that free trade has been a stalking horse for Chinese economic imperialism. Free trade is meant to be an extension of the freedom of one's own citizens. However it seems increasingly clear it was favoured for two reasons:

1. It allowed a few of the richest to arbitrage the entire freakin' economy;
2. It allowed governments to paper over their failed policies with cheap imports.

Even with that said, the role of Trump is to look out for US interests, not mine; tariffs seem to me to be useless in a small, trade-exposed nation like mine (decades of tariff protection failed repeatedly here; it was largely abandoned out of disappointment) but to the USA, with its massive internal trade, well, maybe they'll work.

And in an atmosphere of economic uncertainty, without guaranteed markets and guaranteed cheap imports, smaller nations might actual have to get their act together and generate wealth, instead of coasting along on global growth.

In any case, we'll see what we see. Trump's energy, tax, and industrial policies are all set to create a boom in the USA (which will benefit the rest of the world even WITH tariffs), and if any economic formulation can withstand increases in some of its input costs, it's the one Trump has been working on.

Blogger Fred March 07, 2018 7:35 AM  

Import taxes should be like for like, country by country. Trump has the right idea. People that argue against import tariffs have no idea how the country was built.

Blogger James Dixon March 07, 2018 9:32 AM  

> The constant hatred for millenials is really rich coming from a bunch of Boomers.

a) Most of the posters here aren't boomers. Just watch for one of Vox's periodic boomer rants and the ones who are will self identify. The boomers claim me as one, but I refuse to admit to it.

b) Trump is a boomer. The very front end, admittedly, but a boomer nonetheless.

> Wake me up when the alt-right has a coherent response to the China threat other than tariffs

Tariffs are the best response to the China threat. Well, that and removing most favored nation trading status.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 07, 2018 11:40 AM  

@72 SciVo
I wonder, what will Trump do for an encore after destroying free trade? Murder the last unicorns?
---

Trump will unveil himself as the last unicorn.

Blogger VFM #7634 March 07, 2018 3:17 PM  

@99 Felix Bellator
I know the basics of programming, and am a little familiar with Python and R. But I'm not an expert. Have taken advanced calculus (now rusty) and advanced statistics (not rusty).

Blogger R Edmonds March 07, 2018 3:30 PM  

What is garblefarbling? I looked it up in dictionary.com and urbandictionary.com, but nothing. Great article.

Blogger Linda Fox March 07, 2018 3:31 PM  

That "no available Americans" is cr@p. There are Americans, they just need a kick in the pants to get off welfare/disability/lounging about, living off women. This could be the spur to their getting out of that rut.

Blogger Felix Bellator March 07, 2018 7:33 PM  

@106. VFM #7634 - Send Vox a resume. He can route it to me, or if not we can make other arrangements.

Blogger Unknown March 07, 2018 8:05 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger DoubleB March 07, 2018 8:06 PM  

I think the correct argument against tariffs goes something like this. If companies from other nations are taxed at least some will likely take their business elsewhere, just as when American businesses are taxed they move elsewhere. The arrogance about the necessity and irreplaceability of America to foreign companies seems foolhardy. In hypothesis many fascist rules and regulations seem like they would do good, but they almost always end up doing more damage than good. The answer is more good deregulation and tax cuts, not tariffs

Blogger Snidely Whiplash March 07, 2018 8:11 PM  

Not content with a strawman, @DoubleB builds an entire straw Potemkin village and burninates it, while screaming "NAZIS!!!!!"

Blogger DoubleB March 09, 2018 10:37 AM  

Fascism is correctly defined as any kind of government rules and regulations on the economy. The minimum wage, health codes, and tariffs are all fascism. I wouldn't call tariffs Nazism, I would call them another fascistic tax which hurts the economy. I don't call all fascists nazis that would be stupid. My argument contained no stawman at all. I hope the people here actually can address my arguments without strawmanning my arguments by saying I call people nazis when I don't.

Blogger James Dixon March 09, 2018 10:59 AM  

> Fascism is correctly defined as any kind of government rules and regulations on the economy.

That's a gross overstatement and oversimplification. You're not going to convince anyone here if you insist on using definitions that are easily disproved. The goals and methods of Fascism are readily available for anyone to look up.

Blogger DoubleB March 09, 2018 12:14 PM  

I would love to be proven wrong. If my definition of the economics of fascism is incorrect, what is yours? And how are tarrifs not fascism?

Blogger James Dixon March 09, 2018 3:18 PM  

> If my definition of the economics of fascism is incorrect, what is yours?

Start with https://infogalactic.com/info/Italian_Fascism and in particular follow the link to https://infogalactic.com/info/Fascist_Manifesto

> And how are tarrifs not fascism?

Tariffs existed long before fascism, which didn't come into being until the early 20th century.

Blogger DoubleB March 09, 2018 3:46 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger DoubleB March 09, 2018 3:47 PM  

It seems to me that these sources show how fascism attempts to create a society in which the government controls economics and people through different rules, regulations, and taxes. Tariffs are just one the many fascist ideas meant to control of economy and business.
Of course fascism did not become the word to describe this idea till relitively recently. In the same way alt-right has not been used to describe white nationalism and all the other ideas in it till recently. Fascism is only the word, the idea remains the same. My argument is that the idea is leftist and stupid.

Blogger James Dixon March 09, 2018 10:55 PM  

> My argument is that the idea is leftist and stupid.

Are all forms of taxation leftist and stupid then? Because that's what your argument will devolve to. Tariffs are one of the oldest forms of taxation and not only predate Fascism but our entire concept of left and right as political concepts.

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