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Tuesday, August 14, 2018

The logic of 4GW

Declare a draw and go home. That's the only serious option in Afghanistan:
The Taliban is on the verge of dramatically expanding its control over southern and eastern Afghanistan in a surprise offensive that has caught Afghan and American forces off guard and thrown a vexing new wrench into the Trump administration’s strategy for ending the nearly 17-year-old war there.

The Afghan Defense Ministry said Monday a Taliban assault on the city of Ghanzi — a key provincial capital linking other areas under the Islamic militant group’s control just 75 miles southeast of Kabul — has killed roughly 100 Afghan security forces and some 20 civilians over the past three days.

While the Afghan forces, backed by U.S. and NATO advisors, claimed Monday night to have retained control of central Ghanzi, local reports indicated Taliban fighters still held pockets of the city and had simultaneously swept in and taken over most of the surrounding province’s rural areas.

Analysts said the development has underscored the Taliban’s capability for a resurgence in Afghanistan and will likely increase the group’s political leverage over peace talks with U.S. officials that the Trump administration has quietly been trying to get off the ground.
Surprising? Who is actually surprised? The Taliban was always going to win, because the Taliban only has to outlast the USA, which was never going to stay permanently in the Graveyard of Empires. The God-Emperor should point out that the Afghan Occupation has served its purpose and bring the troops home. They'd be put to much better use on the southern border... or the western one once California secedes.

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41 Comments:

Blogger weka August 14, 2018 5:10 AM  

Given the way that Trudeau's government is making Canada a vibrant place, the northern border may need security...

Blogger Nostromo August 14, 2018 5:11 AM  

As soon as the cucks started the nation building talk I knew we were screwed. Carpet bomb the entire country, and call it good. Afghanistan, Arrakis without spice.

Blogger Teleport me off this rock August 14, 2018 5:15 AM  

Man, the neobombers are going to be so cheesed that they're losing their springboard for the invasion of Iran.

Blogger The Surly Beaver August 14, 2018 5:24 AM  

The war in Afghanistan was lost in 2002 when the American government leaned on the Loya Jirga to choose its corrupt puppet Karzai instead of the King.

Blogger McChuck August 14, 2018 5:38 AM  

Leave, or create a desert and call it peace.

Blogger Shimshon August 14, 2018 5:49 AM  

When President Trump introduced his administration’s new strategy for Afghanistan on Aug. 21, 2017 — a plan based on increasing military pressure to push the Taliban into a peace negotiation — he said his instinct was actually to withdraw American forces from the war zone entirely.

Ruh roh! The neocons are trembling now, because Trump is now going to decide he should've trusted his genius gut all along.

Among the meaningful factors at play, he said, is Mr. Trump’s announcement a year ago that the U.S. would no longer set time limits on its military support for Afghanistan.

Whew! The occupation is safe. Because Trump never changes his mind.

Blogger Troy Lee Messer August 14, 2018 5:56 AM  

How can this not infuriate a rational person? We pissed away away trillions in human and financial capital. For some f**King savages that'll never grasp concepts like limited government cuz theuly are too busy raping boys and goats.

Trillions... A number easily glossed over because it is so huge our meager brains can't grow it. F'ing trillions.

Blogger Troy Lee Messer August 14, 2018 5:57 AM  

Grok = grow

Blogger Lovekraft August 14, 2018 5:59 AM  

Unless they can cut off the supply lines, it is just another Vietnam where the Viet Kong retreats back to Cambodia and China to resupply.

Anonymous Anonymous August 14, 2018 6:02 AM  

OT but related: another dindu has driven a car into pedestrians outside the UKs house of parliament.

Blogger Daniele Grech Pereira August 14, 2018 6:13 AM  

We need to start a war where leftists are the ones who volunteer and die.

Blogger Phillip George August 14, 2018 6:24 AM  

It may have begun a 17 year war but it was really lucky how Larry Silverstein only just insured the WTC against terrorist attacks and collected 4.5 billion dollars compensation from his less than 2 years old lease. Cui Bono. Fortunately the CIA was able to expand their war on Terror and protect us from unfortunate consequences.

Blogger Phillip George August 14, 2018 6:29 AM  

Imagine how much worse it would have been if Bush was a rayciss billionaire.

Blogger Attila is my bro August 14, 2018 6:37 AM  

>>>...but it was really lucky how Larry Silverstein only just insured the WTC against terrorist attacks and collected 4.5 billion dollars compensation from his less than 2 years old lease.

He wanted double the payoff (one claim for each tower). I don't remember the outcome. But even after all that money he still couldn't rent the place until his gubbemint cronies made rent guarantees. But it's a symbol of freedom! 1776 feet tall!

Blogger Dirk Manly August 14, 2018 6:54 AM  

This is like the Germans in the Balkans during WW2... they commanded the ground they stood on (no less, and not one inch more)....in the daytime.

Blogger Sherwood family August 14, 2018 6:57 AM  

As someone who has lived in the neighborhood for the last few years it makes no sense from the standpoint of national security to continue to do anything in Afghanistan.

Argue all you want about power vacuums and terrorist training camps or failed states or what have you.

None of that matters if you will not enact and enforce laws to prevent those people from travelling to your own country.

The fact is that we could blow all of the cities and villages of Afghanistan to little tiny pieces and we would still be screwed because we would have people in Congress voting the bring in the refugees and former enemy combatants for resettlement in the U.S. by the thousands. That is the fundamental problem.

Unless we are willing to do what the British did during the Boer War by burning the countryside, putting all the noncombatants in concentration camps, and killing anything that moves otherwise there is no point in wasting another dime there.

You can't make a sow's ear into a silk purse. It's like no one in government has any grasp of foreign policy or military and diplomatic affairs prior to 1945.

Blogger MichaelJMaier August 14, 2018 7:00 AM  

Well, come on. We also got the inspiration for a really good IRON MAN movie out of it.

Blogger Mister Excitement August 14, 2018 7:08 AM  

My first deployment to Afghanistan in 2008, all the Colonels and Generals that give us the pep talk all said "2009 is THE DECISIVE year in Afghanistan."

My second deployment in 2012 they all said the same thing.

The Afghans aren't nearly as passionate about beating the "Taliban" as we ever were.

The "Taliban" isn't some homogeneous religious Army. There is a lot of that, but a lot of the fighting we have done over there was against different factions, crime networks and various other insurgent groups.

The glorious and romantic liberation of Paris was an anomaly. It may never happen again. Leave these low IQ inbred Southwest Asian Muslims alone.

We should have been out of there years ago.

Blogger Sherwood family August 14, 2018 7:13 AM  

I've been watching "developments" on the diplomatic end for about the same length of time. They keep changing the names of the initiatives but the talking points are the same.

Here's a crazy thought experiment: what if we had not invaded Afghanistan (or Iraq) but just conducted some punitive raids, chased around Al-Qaeda and got OBL on the run before finding and killing him?

How much money would we have saved? How much national dissolution and disintegration would we have avoided? It would have been huge.

Blogger Unknown August 14, 2018 7:33 AM  

Clearly a no win situation, but the problem is that no US president (including Trump) will want to deal with the fact that pulling out of Afghanistan will be seen as a massive defeat that they will be blamed for. So expect this pointless conflict to go on for a long time still.

Blogger Avalanche August 14, 2018 7:33 AM  

@5 "Leave, or create a desert and call it peace."

Excuse me, Chuck, you misplaced your comma. It should be:

Leave or create a desert, and call it peace.

Blogger johndoe03526 August 14, 2018 7:41 AM  

Trump should have trusted his gut.
Absolutely pull the troops out and put them on the Rio Grande.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 14, 2018 8:05 AM  

Why not leave or create a dessert?

Blogger Ominous Cowherd August 14, 2018 8:31 AM  

McChuck wrote:Leave, or create a desert and call it peace.

Leave, and then create a peaceful desert. That's why we have nuke-tipped ICBMs.

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey August 14, 2018 8:38 AM  

Here's a crazy thought experiment: what if we had not invaded Afghanistan (or Iraq) but just conducted some punitive raids, chased around Al-Qaeda and got OBL on the run before finding and killing him?

That would have had devastating effects on the world supply of opium, though.

Blogger Salt August 14, 2018 8:41 AM  

We watched as the Russians, who live next door, got their asses kicked. But, of course, they didn't do it right.

Blogger Crush Limbraw August 14, 2018 9:03 AM  

Pat Buchanan said it - the biggest vulnerability that the GE has - foreign wars!

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 14, 2018 9:03 AM  

Weaponsman RIP placed the blame on Big Army where the big cheeses in the puzzle palace wanted a big war so they could all get CIBs.

I hope the loons in the media like CNN take up this issue and try and use it against Trump, and then Trump agrees and amplifies it so as to demoralize the Ds base of anti-American loons.

Blogger Damelon Brinn August 14, 2018 9:52 AM  

The nice thing about the war in Afghanistan is there was never a coherent goal there, so he can make one up and call it achieved. Say we went there to take out Bin Laden and his minions, which we did, and to make sure 9/11 didn't happen again, which it hasn't. Then go on for a bit about our "brave men and women in uniform" and call it a day.

It's hard to see a downside. Sure, the media and neo-cons will team up to call it cowardly, but that will have the benefit of exposing them again as being on the same team. It'll cause cognitive dissonance in the Democrats who have been trained since birth to think Republican=warmonger and Democrat=peace. He can even tie it to immigration and the Wall, by pointing out that the people who say we can't afford to secure the border, are the same ones who want to keep throwing away money and lives overseas. In 2000, it may have felt like we could afford grand ideological adventures, but not many Americans still feel that way.

It'd piss off all the right people, so it has to be a good idea.

Blogger Matthew McDaniel August 14, 2018 10:20 AM  

When I read the word ‘succession’ I felt a thrill go up my leg. Stop it.

Blogger CarpeOro August 14, 2018 10:31 AM  

@26
Russians? This goes back to Alexander the Great. The nature of the area called Afghanistan is that the terrain lends itself to defense and doesn't produce large amounts of food. This results in small clans that have a tendency to raid nearby lowlands. At best, you can fence them off and do retaliatory raids on them. This is how it has been since before there was recorded history for the region. Short periods of imposed order from without followed by the expulsion or destruction of the occupying garrison. Every single time.

Blogger I’ve Seen Things You People Wouldn’t Believe August 14, 2018 10:44 AM  

This. Not one more ounce of blood or treasure for this god-forsaken hellhole. Leave them to their own gods and demons. We have no more business there.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd August 14, 2018 11:59 AM  

CarpeOro wrote:This results in small clans that have a tendency to raid nearby lowlands. At best, you can fence them off and do retaliatory raids on them.

No, at best you can exterminate them. It would be expensive, but it would be a one-time expense.

It is always right and proper to kill mohammedans.

Blogger DonReynolds August 14, 2018 12:29 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Gen. Kong August 14, 2018 12:54 PM  

The Graveyard of Empires should be left to its goat-humping zombie attendants. It's not worth the bones of a single Banana Empire legionary. If Israel wants it as part of their longstanding 'Greater Israel' lebensraum plan they should do it themselves. Ditto for (((Big Pharma))) and their discounted produce of Pashtun poppyfields. Trump's continuation of this 17-year idiocy is not winning. The whole affair has been nothing more than a perfect example of Smedley Butler's axiom in play: War is a racket. While the Marines were 'fighting them over there', the NGOs and "Churches" have been busy resettling them over here. Yet another example of conservatives conserving nothing at all except profits for their (((masters))).

Blogger Gen. Kong August 14, 2018 1:10 PM  

Phillip George wrote:
It may have begun a 17 year war but it was really lucky how Larry Silverstein only just insured the WTC against terrorist attacks and collected 4.5 billion dollars compensation from his less than 2 years old lease. Cui Bono. Fortunately the CIA was able to expand their war on Terror and protect us from unfortunate consequences.

There have been plenty of beneficiaries of this particular racket. Keep in mind that the Pentagon can't account for 21 trillion dollars. Yes, Curious Jorge's misunderestimated Mesopotamian misadventures accounted for a percentage of this particular black hole, and it still continues producing a quieter giant sucking sound. Here are just a few that come to mind....

*Big Pharma (opium)
*Deep State (ditto)
*NGOs, Churchians (rapefugee resettlement)
*Military Industrial Complex (all sorts of fuckery)
*NATO (EUSSR racketeers)

As for the CIA asset OBL, he was caught early on and held by Pak intel under house arrest just down the street from the Pak version of West Point (one of the Banana Legion's gold-plated generals even stated that he was "on ice") so he could be used by Housenigga Hussein to score brownie points with the idiocracy via the great "Islamic burial at sea".

Blogger Geir Balderson August 14, 2018 2:24 PM  

A very modest proposal would be to remove the United States forces. Then replace them with a like number of immigrant, muslim youths of Europe, that love to fire bomb autos and generally loot and pillage. Afghanistan deserves diversity too?

Blogger SirHamster August 14, 2018 3:13 PM  

Avalanche wrote:Excuse me, Chuck, you misplaced your comma. It should be:

Leave or create a desert, and call it peace.


His formulation is fine.

Leave implies a chaotic un-peaceful mess is left behind. It isn't peaceful.

The desert is peaceful, in a way.

Both are less futile than trying to fix a country for them.

Anonymous Anonymous August 14, 2018 8:40 PM  

Pay the Taliban to kill ISIS. If we had just payed them to kill Al-Qaeda, think how much better off we'd be now.

Blogger BladeRunner1066 August 14, 2018 11:33 PM  

We aren't serious. If we were serious we would kill everybody who spoke Pashto, inside and outside of Afghanistan.

Blogger justaguy August 15, 2018 11:08 PM  

We had an initially successful strategy in Afghanistan--it worked great until Dubya got idiotic ideas. By December 2001, a few special forces helping an opposition party had routed the existing government. I never understood why we didn't just declare victory and go home-- why bring in the USMC and start with ground troops? We could even continue our world war on terror-- just not with impossible to achieve goals of making a backward tribal culture into a modern democracy. I still don't know what we are doing there-- trying to force our ways on a people where too many don't want them! I am with J Webb on this one-- why try to force democracy at the point of a gun. Not everyone thinks like Anglo-Americans do and can accept thier form of government.

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