Monday, August 20, 2018

The myth of the Blue Wave

The wishful thinking by the enemies of the people notwithstanding, the professional pollsters are not betting on it:
Salvanto’s polling currently indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House. “In this era, a district’s voting patterns from the past tend to stay that way,” Salvanto said. “Not as many partisans today are willing to cross party lines.” Of the nation’s 435 House districts, fully 85 percent will almost certainly stick with its current party affiliation come November, Salvanto projects....

“Right now I think this election looks like a toss-up,” Salvanto said. “We see a Democrat pickup in the House of Representatives in the 20-odd seat range, but Republicans could certainly hold on to the House.” The GOP holds a slim 43-seat House majority, with six vacancies.

“Even though Republicans have not fared well in special elections so far this cycle, it does look like they will be turning out for the midterms,” Salvanto said. “So far we do not see a large number of Republicans saying they will flip and vote for a Democrat.”

GOP voters in the past have been much more likely than Democrats to turn up and cast ballots in midterm elections, regardless of each party’s enthusiasm level ahead of Election Day.

So Democrats are literally betting the House on their ability to capture large numbers of voters who don’t normally vote in midterm elections.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Republicans only lose single-digit seats. To be honest, I wouldn't even be shocked if the GOP wound up picking up seats if the God-Emperor delivers another positive surprise or two before November.

The 2018 midterms are when the Democrats begin to understand that the 2020 Trumpslide is coming. Call the shot, sport the shirt, and demoralize them now.

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Blogger Mark Stoval August 20, 2018 4:22 AM  

"The 2018 midterms are when the Democrats begin to understand that the 2020 Trumpslide is coming."

Yes indeed, I agree with that. That realization may also cause the leftists to become even more violent. They may go into full scale riots. That could show "normies" what the left really is like.

Blogger Scire August 20, 2018 5:04 AM  

Some serious money could be made off of the Liberals here:

Blogger Attila is my bro August 20, 2018 5:07 AM  

I can't wait to hear the "our losses were actually wins" newspeak. I smell meme opportunity in the making.

Blogger James Dixon August 20, 2018 6:12 AM  

> "Even though Republicans have not fared well in special elections so far this cycle..."

In the eleven special elections thus far, the Dems have picked up exactly one House seat and one Senate seat. That's not the makings of a blue wave (see Yes, the votes have been closer than we'd like, but the can lose every election by one vote for all I care.

CNN is also trying to downplay the blue wave theory now:

When CBS and CNN are trying to talk their supports out of a blue wave, you can be fairly sure it's not going to happen and that the possibility of a red wave has them worried.

Blogger The Lab Manager August 20, 2018 6:16 AM  

Here in Texas, I'll have to vote for Cruz. He kind of sucks but he has shaped up a bit since Trump came along. Beto O'Rourke is an open border douchebag.

Plenty of Hispanic Trump supporters here in the Lone Star State. Not every brown person wants the southern horde.

Blogger Pierre August 20, 2018 6:33 AM  

> if the God-Emperor delivers another positive surprise or two before November.

I'd place a bet on Trump going public on the massive cheating, ballot stuffing, and bussing in of people to vote for democrats which happened in 2016. He will have to fix the cheating to be reelected... I hear there's a lot of cleanup going on behind the scenes though.

Blogger Skyler the Weird August 20, 2018 6:59 AM  

The polls always oversample Democrats too so it really must be a blue trickle.

Blogger Salt August 20, 2018 7:35 AM  

I don't think this election can be, in any way, accurately polled given the dynamics the G_E has put in place. He's not letting his foot off the gas. There are also indications of some shifting within the democrats celebrated black vote. Trump holds rallies, the left does what? Listens to Maxine Waters?

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 20, 2018 7:43 AM  

Trump trumps the Ds politics of outrage, he won't let go so it goes from outrage to farce over the course of a few days past its due date.

Normal times outrage politics has Ds making charges with the R's tailgating the issue and trying to explain themselves, and then just before it becomes a farce the Ds switch issues and Rs dutifully stooge themselves all over again.

Blogger Bad Attitude August 20, 2018 7:43 AM  

To win, Republicans have to overcome the margin of fraud - dead people voting Democrat, illegals illegally voting, absentee ballot fraud, “found” ballots that give the Democrat candidate the edge, etc.

Blogger Damelon Brinn August 20, 2018 7:49 AM  

Special elections are...special. They allow the Democrats to bus in Hollywood celebrities, national media, professional agitators, and fake voters, to browbeat the locals into voting how they claim the nation wants them to vote. If they're counting on the same effect in the midterms, they're in trouble.

Blogger Matamoros August 20, 2018 7:52 AM  

You can bet the myth will be used to generate donations to the GOP and fear among the base.

Blogger Franz Lyonheart August 20, 2018 8:07 AM  

From the CNN link that @4 provided:

Just last week, we saw a Republican pick up a Democrat-held seat in Pennsylvania's 48th District in the state House. That win received considerably less media attention than the Democratic pickup in the 178th District in that same body.

You don't say........!

Blogger Dark Herald August 20, 2018 8:19 AM  

Honestly, I'm torn here.

One the one hand I'd like to keep hold of the House.

On the other if the Democrats do get a hold of the House they will unquestionably WorldCon themselves into complete collapse by 2020.

Blogger James Dixon August 20, 2018 8:45 AM  

> There are also indications of some shifting within the democrats celebrated black vote.

Oh yeah.

Strangely enough, the usual sources are convinced this poll isn't valid:

But any poll which trashes Trump is immediately and obviously correct, of course.

> On the other if the Democrats do get a hold of the House they will unquestionably WorldCon themselves into complete collapse by 2020.

The Dem's have a dedicated base of about 35% of registered voters who will always voted D, no matter what. Don't count on a collapse. Short term about the best that can happen is for that 35% to shrink to 30% or so. It would take a concerted effort to either remake the Democratic party or create a new party appealing to moderate Democrats to change things more than that. And that would take years (it took over 6 years to get from the initial Tea Party movement to Trump, for instance, and the process is no more than 50% complete).

Blogger SemiSpook37 August 20, 2018 9:21 AM  

Sort of a unique situation here in Maryland, at least at the gubernatorial level. The incumbent governor, Larry Hogan, is a rather popular figure in this state, despite the fact that 1) he's a Republican, and 2) he tends to govern from a centrist to slight center-LEFT philosophy (granted, MD is a 2-1 split among registered Dems to Reps, so it's something he has to do to survive).

His Dem opponent for this cycle is Ben Jealous, former big wig of the NAACP. Of the things going against Mr. Jealous for this cycle, they include 1) the fact that he's not even a native Marylander, 2) his poorly veiled reluctance to interact with groups statewide that could provide some support (such as the Maryland Association of Counties meeting this past weekend in Ocean City), and 3) an increasing number of viral gaffes on the trail (ex. when asked by a WaPo reporter at an event early last week if he was a socialist, his immediate response was, "Are you fucking kidding me?" This was captured on video, as well.).

The X-factor for this campaign, though, is that Hogan is an unacknowledged Never Trumper. Primary reason for this is the fact that Hogan is good friends with former NJ governor Chris Christie, and campaigned for him heavily during the 2016 primaries. Given the interactions between Christie and Trump, this lead to Hogan to quietly withhold his support when it came time for the general election. This has allowed Hogan to rise to the level of vice chair of the RGA and various other "establishment" associations, which has the ability to ensure that he can act as appropriate "opposition" should his services be required to do so.

It's a rough proposition, to be sure, but at least the plus side of this is that Jealous is showing himself to be the buffoon most of the folks on the Dem side thought he was in the primary. The only thing I can say for Hogan is at least he's trying on the redistricting efforts with supporting an independent, non-partisan commission, which is something that is sorely needed at the national level. It may only take the current Congressional delegation split from 7-1 to 6-2 D/R, but at least it's something.

Blogger Seeingsights August 20, 2018 9:25 AM  

There have been some recently published books--no accident as to the timing-arguing against Democratic narratives. One book by Dershowitz argues against impeaching Trump. Another book, I forgot the name of the author, argues that the Trump--Russia collusion theory is bs.
That intellectual pushback I take as a good sign.

Blogger Seeingsights August 20, 2018 9:32 AM  

I don't like the theory that if the Dems win the House in 2018 then they will go WorldCon in 2020.
The Brits have a saying "acting too clever by half."
Dems controlling the House would end the god-emperor agenda. No funding for The Wall. No more tax cuts. The Mueller witch hunt continues. No total repudiation of Obamacare.

Blogger Salt August 20, 2018 9:34 AM  

@16 Remember when the eastern shore was called the shit-house sideby then Gov. William Donald Schaefer (D)? Blowback - "We don't give a damn about the whole state of Maryland, we're from the eastern shore."

Blogger Troy Lee Messer August 20, 2018 9:52 AM  

"To win, Republicans have to overcome the margin of fraud"

That margin of fraud is a thing. Truly the end of this empire cannot happen fast enough.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 20, 2018 10:01 AM  

Call the shot, sport the shirt, savor the salt.

Blogger bosscauser August 20, 2018 10:35 AM  

Gerrymandering. No real change in the House.
We'll pick up three in the Senate..

Blogger Nate August 20, 2018 10:36 AM  

GOP gains seats. The meltdown will be worse than election night. As that will be the night they realize that 2020 is already over.

Blogger Unknown August 20, 2018 10:38 AM  

Turnout will be key, especially in those statewide elections for the Senate. So don't let anybody have an excuse for staying home; because the special elections have shown that the Democrats won't be staying home.

Blogger Stilicho August 20, 2018 10:42 AM  

Lots of demoncrats crowing about their close race in OH 12. I don't know what was spent on each side, but I do know that the local tv stations were inundated with ads for th demoncrat for over a month before the election where he hid his party affiliation and talked about working with President Trump in the people's interest. Very much an appeal to an uninformed voter who likes nice, unthreatening politicians (he did accuse his opponent of wanting to take away SS and Medicare). The GOP candidate was very bland and appeared less often in tv ads where he tried to stay "positive" and I don't think I heard him ever mention his opponent. The only ad actually discussing the demoncrat was a radio spot run by the National GOP a few days before the special election which actually identified him as a D and pointed out that a vote for him was a vote for Pelosi and her agenda. In short, very bland, under the radar campaigning. Rematch in November will be gloves off I suspect.

Blogger Thumos August 20, 2018 10:45 AM  

Two things come to my mind. One, D voters are slightly lower-agency due to the large contingent of POCs and the very young. There are more "vote only every 4 years" types in this cohort, which probably explains why R voters have better turnout in midters. Two, the left has done a fine job this year of further distancing themselves from middle-class concerns and white people in general.

I really don't see how the left has done anything to convert a lot of people with all the fake news or convince people who weren't already anti-Trump that Trump has done a bad job. Anything substantive about how the past two years have gone, or observable by one's own eyes, tends to support Trump.

Blogger Brett baker August 20, 2018 10:49 AM  

But SDL, the Republicans from the 10% of zip codes that did well under Bush/Obama assure us the blue wave is coming! They've NEVER been wrong before, have they?

Blogger Brett baker August 20, 2018 10:49 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Didas Kalos August 20, 2018 11:03 AM  

Agreed. Thats akin to saying let their offense get tired. Sigh

Blogger peacefulposter August 20, 2018 11:05 AM  

Current betting lines for 2020*:

The God Emperor +137
Kamala Harris +900
Crazy Bernie +900
Mike Pence +900
Creepy Joe - +1400
Pocahontas - +1400
Oprah +2800

*Source bet365 dot com

Blogger Stilicho August 20, 2018 11:35 AM  

Socialism is the opiate of the dumbasses.

...and they're hitting the pipe pretty hard this year

Blogger Crew August 20, 2018 11:50 AM  

And in related news, SJWs seem to have caused problems for one game producer:

Battlefield V Pre-Orders Slow As EA Exec Quits

Perhaps EA will begin to understand it needs to focus on its customers, not stupid SJWs.

Blogger James Dixon August 20, 2018 12:05 PM  

> Perhaps EA will begin to understand it needs to focus on its customers, not stupid SJWs.

That's a lost cause. Put your money elsewhere.

Blogger DonReynolds August 20, 2018 12:13 PM  

The conventional political wisdom during much of my post-FDR lifetime has always been that the Democrat party has always been the majority party and the only way Republicans get elected is if Democrats vote for them or stay home. That was certainly true when the "Solid South" was overwhelmingly Democrat. That slowly began to change with Eisenhower and Nixon, especially because of the latter's Southern Strategy. By the time of Reagan, things began to change profoundly. Now every Southern state (except Virginia and to a lesser extent Florida) is reliably going to vote Republican. Add to that, nearly all of the Great Plains (Wheat Belt) states and increasingly voters north of the Ohio River, especially Indiana and Ohio and Illinois (outside Cook County) and to a lesser extent Michigan (outside Wayne County). Obama and the Democrat war on coal has seriously weakened the solid (union coal miner) Democrat vote in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania. These people are not quick to forgive or forget.

I agree with Vox and his guarded optimism. Even if the Democrats show up for the mid-term elections, it will not change the outcome, it will only make the lines at the polling places longer. The Republican voters are going to be there. Besides, there is no safer bet than the incumbent in Congress.

Blogger Gen. Kong August 20, 2018 12:22 PM  

Troy Lee Messer wrote:
"To win, Republicans have to overcome the margin of fraud"

That margin of fraud is a thing. Truly the end of this empire cannot happen fast enough.

Supposedly, the 1983 consent decree which forbade Repukes from challenging Donk vote fraud in court (because rayciss) is no longer in force. That might be just some hopium though.

Blogger Salt August 20, 2018 12:22 PM  

"So, what does all this 16% Chasm stuff have to do with Donald Trump?

After all, he crossed the chasm and won the presidency.

But the chasm Trump needed to cross was a demographic one. Minorities, specifically black voters. And because he did, nothing about our electoral politics will ever be the same.

Rasmussen released a bombshell report on Friday stating that Trump’s support among black voters is now a whopping 36%.

This versus 19% a year ago.

Now, Rasmussen skews Republican in his sampling like Gallup skews Democrat, so lop 3-5% off both of those numbers, the margin of error. Go back to Trump’s polling with black voters just a few months ago and you’ll see numbers in the 17% range.

Today 36%. That, my friends, is crossing the chasm in a big way.

And it’s typical. Italy’s Northern League ‘crossed the chasm’ in January and doubled support in six months.

So, now the question is what caused this? What changed?"

Blogger DJT August 20, 2018 12:34 PM  

GOP control through 2024 is crucial, not just for the Trump agenda, but also for redistricting after the 2020 census.

I also think the blue wave is BS, but we can't act like it. Every single American who voted Trump in 2016 had sure as hell better vote for Trump supporters in 2018.

Failure even to do that would cast a person's lot in with the Fake Americans.

Blogger Rex Little August 20, 2018 12:47 PM  

Here in the suburbs of Phoenix, a couple of candidates (one for Senate, one for House) are explicitly basing their campaigns on support for and from Trump. It will be interesting to see how that works for them. I note that the many attack ads against Martha McSally (the Senate candidate) don't mention Trump at all.

Blogger Curlytop August 20, 2018 12:58 PM  

@23 I concur, Nate. 2016 was illustrative on a local social circles as well as the national stage. The big question is whether the Dems go for broke before or after the midterm election night. I would not be surprised at all if top Dem Leadership strategists still hype the Bluewave myth bc they know their base is insanely unstable and the likely loss will trigger the civil unrest they crave. These people need chaos.

And I'd pay attention to Ga's Gubernatorial race too...

Blogger James Dixon August 20, 2018 1:06 PM  

> I also think the blue wave is BS, but we can't act like it. Every single American who voted Trump in 2016 had sure as hell better vote for Trump supporters in 2018.

As demonstrated by the Obamacare attempted repeal fiasco, I don't have any Trump supporters to vote for. :(

It's a sorry state of affairs when the Dem running for the Senate (Joe Manchin) may actually be more of a Trump supporter than the Rep (Patrick Morrisey). Yes, Morrisey says he supports Trump, but he's given me no real reason to believe him.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 20, 2018 1:28 PM  

Slightly OT ... Jeff Sessions' self-description blurb on Twitter:

Jeff Sessions
84th and current Attorney General of 🇺🇸 since 2017 'Russian Collusion' investigation is a smoke screen to gather evidence on HRC/COMEY/McCABE #AmericaFirst

Selma, AL
Joined August 2018

Blogger Dirk Manly August 20, 2018 1:37 PM  

Never mind, it's a LARP account.

Blogger Pierre August 20, 2018 1:39 PM  

Dirk Manly wrote:Slightly OT ... Jeff Sessions' self-description blurb on Twitter

But is this Sessions' official twitter, or someone else's?...

Blogger Skyler the Weird August 20, 2018 1:43 PM  

@32. Even Battlefield One has Africans serving in the German and Austria-Hungarian army in Europe in 1915. Those 1500 Russian Women snipers show up everywhere too. Not surprised they want to converge WWII also.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 20, 2018 3:55 PM  


"Supposedly, the 1983 consent decree which forbade Repukes from challenging Donk vote fraud in court (because rayciss) is no longer in force. That might be just some hopium though."

Supposedly, the judge on that case comes out of retirement for 1 day each year to re-sign the decree.

Will nobody rid us of this tyrannical judge?

Blogger Nikephoros II Phokas August 20, 2018 4:01 PM  

"Some serious money could be made off of the Liberals here:"

Dems are betting $66 to make $33 on Dems not just winning but winning so big that they control the currently Republican controlled House. Based on Nate Silver predictions.


Blogger RobertT August 20, 2018 4:53 PM  

Of course something big could happen to trigger a Red Wave. The Trump right is irritated by Trump's inaction. If the redacted items are un-redacted, or if Trump moves on the socials, the Dems could find themselves sucking air through a straw.

Blogger RobertT August 20, 2018 4:54 PM  

Even Q loyalists are bitching about inaction.

Anonymous Anonymous August 20, 2018 4:56 PM  

@35 @45


Carter appointee District Judge Dickinson R. Debevoise, who, even after he retired, returned every year for the sole purpose of renewing his 1982 order for another year. Debevoise died in August 2015.

In 2010, the RNC appealed “to vacate or modify” the Consent Decreein “Democratic National Committee v Republican National Committee,” Case No. 09-4615 (C.A. 3, Mar. 8, 2012). But an appeals judge at the New Jersey District Court, Obama appointee Judge Joseph Greenaway, Jr., declined to vacate the decree.

U.S. District Court Judge John Michael Vazquez, to allow the 1982 Consent Decree to expire.

As reported by on January 9, 2018, Judge Vazquez ruled that the Democratic National Committee did not prove that the RNC violated the Consent Decree prior to its Dec. 1, 2017, expiration date.

Anonymous Anonymous August 20, 2018 4:58 PM  

@48 Hi fungus. Yes, you caught me, I'm an AI...

Blogger RobertT August 20, 2018 5:00 PM  

Firing Mueller would also trigger a red wave. There are so many of these opportunities, one of them is bound to happen. Trump is a man of action, so you know one of them is bound to happen.

Blogger DJT August 20, 2018 5:22 PM  

As demonstrated by the Obamacare attempted repeal fiasco, I don't have any Trump supporters to vote for.

I feel ya. As cucky as it sounds, I would still vote for any Republican over any Democrat, if those are the only options. A party dominated by Trump supporters in power is still worth a sucky candidate. IOW in Arizona I'd vote for McCain if it kept Rand Paul in the majority party.

Blogger tuberman August 20, 2018 7:00 PM  

47. RobertT


Blogger Doktor Jeep August 20, 2018 7:12 PM  

It's simple for me, and I have NEVER in my entire life had an original idea, so I ain't the only planning this:
2018 - Vote against all Democrats.
I don't even know, or care, who is running. In fact the polarization of the parties is making it easier! I will of course make sure not to support any neocons, and will write in Pinochet before any libertarian.

Blogger James Dixon August 20, 2018 10:52 PM  

> 2018 - Vote against all Democrats.

Oh, believe me, I have no intention of voting for a Democrat.

Blogger Kentucky Packrat August 21, 2018 1:58 AM  

I live in Andy Barr's district here in Kentucky. I have no idea how the man was ever elected to the House. Heck, I'm not sure how the man is capable of standing outside in the rain without drowning ("what's this wet stuff that keeps falling on me, let me look at it and see what it is....")

If the Democrats really thought they had a blue wave, there's several conservative to moderate Democrats in Kentucky who could make him look dumber than my poor dog, and beat him in a heartbeat. Instead, they picked someone who thought it was a good idea to bring Mark Kelly (Mr. Gun Control) to central Kentucky.

When I heard that McGrath was bringing in Kelly, I told my wife "forget the blue wave, the Democrats will be lucky if they don't lose seats."

Blogger Revelation Means Hope August 22, 2018 12:21 AM  

Scire wrote:Some serious money could be made off of the Liberals here:

Heh, Predictit in 2016 helped pay for my family's vacation to Hawaii.

Thanks clueless, brainless liberals!

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