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Wednesday, September 19, 2018

No "Blue Wave" in November

I've said it before, and I have no doubt that I'll be saying it again. There will be no "Blue Wave" of Democrats being elected in November:
Voters elected political newcomer Pete Flores to the Texas Senate on Tuesday, flipping a Democratic district red for the first time in 139 years and bolstering Republicans’ supermajority in the chamber ahead of the November elections.

A retired game warden, Flores defeated former state and U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego for the Senate District 19 seat after receiving backing from some of the state’s most prominent politicians, including Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, and U.S. Sens John Cornyn and Ted Cruz.

“We conservatives are conservative in the way we make approaches. The gunfight’s not over until the last shot’s fired,” Flores told the Express-News after Gallego conceded in a phone call just before 9 p.m. “The last shot’s been fired.”

According the Secretary of State’s website, Flores won with 53 percent of the vote to Gallego’s 47 percent with 44,487 ballots cast.

In his victory speech, Flores reflected about the historic significance of his win and the job ahead.

“This district has not been Republican since Reconstruction. And in September of 2018, it’s Republican once again,” Flores told supporters. “The work starts tomorrow.”

Christian Archer, Gallego’s campaign strategist, said he was shocked by the results.
Hillary Clinton won the district by 12 percentage points in 2016. Looks likes Trumpslide 2020 is already gathering momentum.

Labels:

137 Comments:

Blogger Arthur Isaac September 19, 2018 10:55 AM  

More stories on the GE's genitals and the recountings of 15 yo (at the time) leftist chicks please. Hopefully expounded to Rachel Maddow by Shcumer, Feinstien and Pelosi.

Blogger Balkan Yankee September 19, 2018 10:56 AM  

"This district has not been Republican since Reconstruction." So, when does President Trump start campaigning for a veto-proof Senate majority?

Blogger Desert Screamer September 19, 2018 10:57 AM  

There will be a blue wave...of Democrats' tears

Blogger Hammerli 280 September 19, 2018 10:59 AM  

And I noticed that Cruz is now showing a 9-point lead in was was touted as a "neck-and-neck" race.

We need to remember that the Propaganda Press lies. Always.

Still, my great hope is that the elections are a complete wipeout for the Left...because their candidates are sitting in prison cells.

Blogger kurt9 September 19, 2018 11:00 AM  

Kudos to you Vox if you're right, because I certainly hope you are right.

Blogger Tee Stoney September 19, 2018 11:00 AM  

Tidy Bowl flush.

Blogger Pierre September 19, 2018 11:05 AM  

> Tidy Bowl flush.

My thoughts exactly! The Blue Flush would make a nice meme...

Blogger Solon September 19, 2018 11:11 AM  

I've got a buddy who is convinced... CONVINCED, that news like this story is all flukes, that the blue wave is indeed coming strong.

I need to find that video of Election Night 2016, when all the newscasters were so sure Hillary was going to win, and their faces as the night went on, sinking deeper into despair...

Blogger Robert What? September 19, 2018 11:14 AM  

Looks like the Democrats will have to ship in more illegals before the election.

Blogger OGRE September 19, 2018 11:23 AM  

The Blue Wave is just a narrative play, a desperate attempt to create a preference cascade and to stem off the crushing despair plaguing the lefts base. For those in the blue strongholds--in their bubbles surrounded by their fellow ideologues--it must seem inevitable; everyone they know is part of the Resistance!

They've even been floating the possibility of the Dems taking over the Senate, although that is virtually impossible mathematically. Of 35 Senate seats up for election, 26 are held by Dems. And of the 16 Senate elections considered 'close,' 11 are held by Dems. And 9 of those 11 are in states that Trump won. The most likely result is that Reps will gain seats in the Senate, but you sure won't hear about that possibility in the media.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine September 19, 2018 11:24 AM  

People who believe the obvious lies (blue wave) are the entire reason for the obvious lies being told in the first place.

Blogger Daniel September 19, 2018 11:24 AM  

Blue Wave goodbye.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother September 19, 2018 11:24 AM  

This victory is fucking insane, because that area is heavily Hispanic, around San Antonio. So you have to almost have a Hispanic Republican running for office to win. Identity politics is boss.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother September 19, 2018 11:26 AM  

That reminds me, my mortgage broker is from El Paso, and his father is well acquainted with the O'Rourke family. Corrupt to the core is what he tells me.

Blogger CarpeOro September 19, 2018 11:28 AM  

A shift in the less than two years. Maybe there has been some work in those past two years to eliminate electoral shenanigans the Dems have used to keep a lock on it. -12 to +6 is a huge change unless the voting demographics have changed considerably. Say, removing the subterranean vote.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 19, 2018 11:29 AM  

So having your narrative being dominated by white feminist loony tunes is not a sure fire winner? Do the glorious people of color not recognize the brilliance and honesty of the white feminist matriarchs?

Laugh at me but it is my prediction that in the future the GPOC will sell white feminists as slaves.

Blogger Long Live The West September 19, 2018 11:31 AM  

6 more beautiful years to go.

Blogger berb2000 September 19, 2018 11:31 AM  

I always get a laugh when I watch CNN via Youtube and read the comments. By that alone I think the bluewave is a farce.

Blogger Matt September 19, 2018 11:33 AM  

Don't tell Cernovich and co.
Those black pills are flowing

Blogger Haus frau September 19, 2018 11:36 AM  

@4 Beto O'Rourke is a loud mouth gun ban advocate running for senate in Texas of all places. He has a campaign ad saying ak47 and other weapons of war have no place in civilian. A total non starter in texas and most of the red states. Im surprised they ran this guy.

Blogger Miguel September 19, 2018 11:37 AM  

So, basically, all those dems who are hoping to 1) delay Kavanaugh's confirmation, and 2) use the "blue wave" to block him, are relying on a pipe dream? Say it isn't sooooooo!!

Anonymous Anonymous September 19, 2018 11:37 AM  

The G-E's victory in 2016 put Democrat blood in the water for the first time in a long time, and Americans are finally embracing their inner Great White.

Blogger Daniele Grech Pereira September 19, 2018 11:38 AM  

Fantastic.

Blogger Haus frau September 19, 2018 11:39 AM  

@14 my husbands side still lives in el paso so i hear about this from time to time. The O'Rourkes have a very negative reputation.

Blogger Desdichado September 19, 2018 11:40 AM  

Pierre Truc wrote:> Tidy Bowl flush.

My thoughts exactly! The Blue Flush would make a nice meme...


https://www.halseynews.com/2018/04/18/no-blue-wave-coming/

Blogger darkdoc September 19, 2018 11:40 AM  

Polls are the most refined of Fake News. They are fake from beginning to end, and all reports on them are meant to be fake.

Blogger Garuna September 19, 2018 11:42 AM  

The "Blue Wave" has always been a lie. Republicans are expected to GAIN seats in the Senate. And midterm polls always underestimate the Republican support.

2014 - Republicans underestimated by 6%
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

2010 - Republicans underestimated by 1%
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

2006 - Republicans underestimated by 3.5%
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html

2002 - Republicans underestimated by 2%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2002_generic_congressional_vote-2180.html#!

They will lose some seats in the House due to redistricting alone. And there are some neocuckservatives running in places where it should be Trumpists instead. Dems may gain the House or may not.

So it should accurately be described as: Red Bump in the Senate. Blue Bump in the House, though unclear if it'll be enough to flip it to Dems.

Regardless, even if Dems win the House, they'll impeach Trump which will energize his base, boost his support and cause Republicans to win in back in 2020.

There's simply no way for Dems to win long-term. Trump will be victorious in the end.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother September 19, 2018 11:43 AM  

Once that blood is tasted, the polar bear and great white prefer it.

Every real American loves to fight, loves the sting of battle. There are some people who say American boys won't fight. Those bilious bastards know as much about fighting as they do about fucking.

Blogger Garuna September 19, 2018 11:43 AM  

PS. Impeachment won't result in Trump removal, as Republicans will control the Senate.

Blogger Unknown September 19, 2018 11:45 AM  

Being a special election that nobody knew about probably helped. If the media were honking about this election day in and day out, it would have stayed blue.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother September 19, 2018 11:47 AM  

And that means the election results were a more honest assessment of the electorate's disposition.

Blogger justaguy September 19, 2018 11:48 AM  

Keep the House, increase the Rs in the Senate, then maybe Trump can really be Trump.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother September 19, 2018 11:49 AM  

CRUSH
SEE
HEAR

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2018 11:49 AM  

OGRE wrote:a desperate attempt to create a preference cascade and to stem off the crushing despair plaguing the lefts base.
A preference cascade requires that the preference already exist. The cascade is an effect of people feeling free to express their preference, not of people changing their preference. That's why they happen so fast, weeks, not years.

Blogger Silent Draco September 19, 2018 11:52 AM  

Take the MSM thumb off the scale, and it's worth a 5 pt right shift. Those races may not be as over or close as pronounced. Reality can be 1 shift right, unless we believe the preference cascade and the yammering. Get out and vote for the GE and those who support him, and tell 5 more to do the same. Anyone have time for poll watching, or can make time? Do it.

One thing I don't expect is sufficient spine in Congress to refuse to seat candidates with obvious voter fraud in their district or state, sufficient to question outcomes. That would generate enough salt to defrost everything in January.

Blogger eclecticme September 19, 2018 11:53 AM  

Way off topic.
Chinese in Vancouver 'unexpectedly' show up at vigil for Chinese girl killed by Syrian. No yellow guilt it seems.
https://www.therebel.media/outrage_over_chinese_canadian_girl_murdered_by_refugee_shocks_media
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFhJel0Lnfk

Blogger OGRE September 19, 2018 11:54 AM  

@21 Miguel

The goal with the attempts to delay the Kavanaugh confirmation isn't about blocking him per se. (And delay is obviously the clear objective of these farcical allegations.)
Its about giving voters a reason to vote blue in November. If Dems can delay the confirmation vote till after the elections, they can use the possibility of flipping the Senate and blocking Kavanaugh as motivation for voters who are opposed to Kavanaugh, as a way to energize their base and bring out the apathetic liberal vote. Its why the Dems are shamelessly trying to paint this horrible caricature of the man (see the Kamala Harris edited video re 'contraceptives=abortion inducing drugs'). If this process drags out further expect to see more pronounced attacks against him in the media and not just in the Senate chamber.

I'm convinced that if the Senate Dems thought they could win a No vote on Kavanaugh today they wouldn't do it. Its more valuable to them for the November elections to have his confirmation vote still on the table then to actually block his appointment.

Blogger Nihil Dicit September 19, 2018 11:54 AM  

"Beto O'Rourke" sounds like a lesser Mel Brooks character, a joke that got cut from Blazing Saddles.

Blogger Lance E September 19, 2018 11:56 AM  

Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:This victory is fucking insane, because that area is heavily Hispanic, around San Antonio. So you have to almost have a Hispanic Republican running for office to win. Identity politics is boss.

From reading the article, it looks a lot like how they won. Apparently he is the first Hispanic candidate that Republicans ran in that district. The Democrat (Gallego) sounds Hispanic but doesn't look like it in the photos. So they played the identity politics game and won... this time.

Running Hispanic candidates is a dangerous game, though. I hope this one turns out to be a team player. Long-term, they need to be the party of Americans.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother September 19, 2018 11:58 AM  

I agree it's playing with fire. Same reason the Nisei were sent to Europe instead of Guadalcanal.

Blogger Cetera September 19, 2018 11:59 AM  

This news warms my heart. I know the "polls" are designed to sway opinion, to push a narrative, and to demoralize. I know that CNN is fake news. But even so, when I see that a CNN poll says the democrat vying for the Flake senate seat is supposedly up almost 8 points in AZ... damn if their bullshit doesn't still make me worried.

Blogger Jack Amok September 19, 2018 12:06 PM  

The Blue Wave is just a narrative play,

That, and cover for as much election fraud as they can muster. "See, BLUE WAVE! BLUE WAVE! No, the voting machines are all proper... it was just BLUE WAVE!"

Blogger Pastor September 19, 2018 12:09 PM  

It looks like a test for a vote minus previous soros election tampering. I am trusting this would be effective in Broward County FL this November (though it looks like the tampering was in full effect last month).

Blogger Avalanche September 19, 2018 12:21 PM  

@4 "Still, my great hope is that the elections are a complete wipeout for the Left...because their candidates are sitting in prison cells."

I think it would be a LOT more fun if there was a massacre of Dems in all the polls BEFORE any of them go to jail! Make it CLEAR (well, as clear as you can to the wee demented brains of the left-prog-commies) that We the People DO. NOT. WANT. what they are selling!

And the tsunami of Right-side votes might finally get through to the MPAI on the Right that we are a massive majority, despite the lies of the media! Maybe the cucks will finally stop being supplicants and become citizens again? We can always hope...

Blogger Blume September 19, 2018 12:22 PM  

Every time I hear about Beto it's another negative thing like this. I do not like the Cruzbot but this guy is a terrible alternative.

Blogger CM September 19, 2018 12:26 PM  

Broward and Dade have me flipping out over the Gillum-DeSantis race.

I hope enough show up to discount the 6-point lead Gillum has.

Blogger SidVic September 19, 2018 12:28 PM  

Point taken Vox, but i am worried about the Tenn senate race. Anybody here live in Tenn, or even close, better get to the polls.

Blogger Nate73 September 19, 2018 12:28 PM  

The district in question is 66% hispanic. Is this more evidence Texas will eventually turn blue due to hispanic growth?

Blogger tuberman September 19, 2018 12:29 PM  

The military has prevented machine cheating, and Texas now has a voter ID law.

Blogger IAMSpartacus0000 September 19, 2018 12:30 PM  

I am often left wondering who will start shooting first. I listen to the media and Dems and see no ground for compromise or even shared beliefs any longer. "Democrat Christians" are starting to struggle with their side even as the Far-left elements start pushing out what remains of the True Christians.

2020 may be the end honestly, If Trump loses then the Alt-right may go ultra. If the left loses they will burn down their own cities but will they spread?

Blogger DougW September 19, 2018 12:35 PM  

I truly hope you're correct, VD. I'm not a defeatist, don't get me wrong. I hope this is a harbinger and not some sort of idiosyncratic local election. Winning by that percentage, in that district, sure does auger well, though.

Blogger Marie Everington September 19, 2018 12:46 PM  

Can people just stop mewling that it's "pretty much ok guyz" if the Dems get the House? It's NOT. GTMFVO and stop acting like these idiots who are pushing an imaginary tale of not-rape will just be cool, maaannnn if they have a majority in the House. Impeachment is not just, like, whatever. This is a worse kind of eeyoring, because it's so effin' obvious the Repubs will hold the House IF THE EEYORES SHUT UP AND VOTE. Less mewling and rolling over, more GOTV and turning out for all elections in your area.

Blogger James Dixon September 19, 2018 12:55 PM  

> I need to find that video of Election Night 2016

Someone on Gab is reporting that Facebook is deleting them as I type.

Blogger James Dixon September 19, 2018 12:55 PM  

Ack, not Facebook, YouTube. So find them while you can.

Blogger Damelon Brinn September 19, 2018 12:58 PM  

People talk a lot about the growing Hispanic vote and other such groups, but they assume the white vote won't change in reaction. A few percent of white people switching parties or deciding to vote for the first time can make a big difference, and that's not something the MSM will report on, or even allow themselves to notice.

In 2016, they said that couldn't be happening, because supposedly there hadn't been changes in voter registrations. Well, *someone* new showed up to vote Republican in flyover states. They're never going to admit that's happening in a campaign until it's over.

Blogger Pastor September 19, 2018 1:18 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Pastor September 19, 2018 1:20 PM  

In Florida, its interesting that Gillum went into the Democratic primary in 3rd place BUT ended up winning. He is a black male far to the left of his democratic opponents. He is floating the idea of a state income tax. All that and the "polls" are showing he is leading the Repub challenger!

There are whispers down here that if he becomes governor here in Florida that he will be the front runner as the Democratic challenger to Trump for Prez. Unreal.

And as for Broward and Dade county? Corrupt to the core. Q's guys have their work cut out for them down here.

Blogger Linden Arden September 19, 2018 1:24 PM  

This is a moment when I miss Ricky Vaughn. His in depth polling prognostications were spot on. He correctly broke down the numbers and predicted the over performance in the key states of the Republican electorate. We need someone like this for the mid terms and 2020.

Blogger Mo September 19, 2018 1:34 PM  

@47 - I'm dead worried about the TN race. Blackburn's ads are mostly terrible, and it just doesn't seem like she's doing what she needs to do to win. Maybe the race hasn't really heated up yet, and we'll see more from her soon. We've donated already and are planning on volunteering, but I have a bad feeling and I will be PISSED if I have to live under a Dem Senator again.

Blogger kurt9 September 19, 2018 1:34 PM  

Donald Trump is the Orrin Knox of our time. The present day situation, however, is completely orthogonal to that of the Drury novels of the 1970's.

Blogger Sim1776 September 19, 2018 1:39 PM  

I dont think that's an issue here...

Blogger Amy September 19, 2018 1:40 PM  

@Mo, Tennessee is just another outpost of the “Keep Austin Weird” crowd.

Lots of influential professor-cum-politician types have clustered in the Big Cities. I worked for one, and knew many of his friends, his wife, their kids (high yella blacks, all). Getting the South on board with minority achievement is their driving force, damn the whites who made it so good and we’ll deal with Muslims later (Not! 😂)

Blogger Silly but True September 19, 2018 2:18 PM  

Hispanic American voters generally can’t stand illegals.

Blogger Sheila4g September 19, 2018 2:19 PM  

@49 tuberman: "The military has prevented machine cheating, and Texas now has a voter ID law."

I'm not sure what you mean by "the military has prevented machine cheating," but the voter ID law is practically worthless. The big place to check for fraud is when REGISTERING to vote, and I don't see them doing anything of the sort. Took my younger son for his Learner's Permit a month ago, and had his birth certificate, SS card, etc. The clerk (White male) looked at them, but there was nothing he did to ascertain they weren't fake that I could tell (he actually gave me more hassle about my own documents, because one of the bills I had with me was in my husband's name - unacceptable. Fortunately my Concealed Carry permit passed muster).

My son (18) applied to register to vote at the same time. I thought, per the clerk, he would merely get an application in the mail, but instead his actual registration card arrived (before his laminated photo ID Learner's Permit did). FWIW, we were about the only Whites in the extremely crowded waiting room. Tons of potential for phony documents and fraud among all the Mestizo, Arab, Hindu, and Chinese applicants there.

Blogger Jack September 19, 2018 2:27 PM  

That part of Texas has been majority Hispanic since before the Texas Revolution, and most of them fought with the Anglos against Santa Anna. A lot of these folks can trace their family land back to grants from the King of Spain. They might not be allies of the alt-right but they aren't California Democrats either.

Blogger Silly but True September 19, 2018 2:31 PM  

Regarding TN Senate race, CNN has Bredesen up by 5% so we can rest assured Blackburn is winning.

Regardless, every day is good day in TN that no one else from Ford family is serving public office.

Blogger The Greay Man September 19, 2018 2:36 PM  

Always remember the Trafalgar polls from 2016

Blogger MortemTyrannus September 19, 2018 2:52 PM  

Voter fraud point swing?

Blogger Azure Amaranthine September 19, 2018 2:55 PM  

"While the DEMS are unlikely to take the Senate, everything (Polls, Fundraising, Enthusiasm, Retirements) point to the Dems taking the house."

The only one in denial is you. Go away, lying shill.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine September 19, 2018 2:56 PM  

You don't seem to realize that even if there were any potential for a blue wave, the tide is going out. You're going to be high and dry on the sand no matter what.

Blogger :^) September 19, 2018 3:06 PM  

"If the left loses they will burn down their own cities but will they spread?"

No. You need a certain percentage of lefTARDS for that to happen. Though the leftward/SJW dug in in red areas will continue their termite activity.

"I'm dead worried about the TN race. Blackburn's ads are mostly terrible, and it just doesn't seem like she's doing what she needs to do to win. Maybe the race hasn't really heated up yet, and we'll see more from her soon. We've donated already and are planning on volunteering, but I have a bad feeling and I will be PISSED if I have to live under a Dem Senator again."

Sounds like you might need to step up a little more. Write some scathing denunciations of the left in the comment section of your local "newspaper" but not too much or the hypocrites will just remove it, send some strategy/advice to your candidates election office in the race, you don't have to live and breathe politics like a lefTARD but every little bit helps.

Blogger Tars Tarkas September 19, 2018 3:10 PM  

This is GOP fantasy. The enemy of the people have been non-stop anti-Trump for 2 years since the election and we have lost a great portion of our social media presence to contradict the anti-white, anti-Trump narrative.

Most people do not look at right wing media on the internet and elsewhere. All they see is anti-Trump all the time. The endless lies and slander of the media is taking a toll on the voters.

I saw a poll today that only 30% of people think Trump did an adequate job with Hurricane Maria last year do to the absurd lies about 3000 people dying and the inadequate response of FEMA and the feds. ALL LIES, but people believe it.

I was reading through the deaths from Florence early this week and they were counting people running generators indoors, people standing in rain plugging in long extension cords and people dying of heart attacks as victims of the storm!

The GOP is filled with cucks and cowards. It's hard to get worked up for politicians with no backbone or who are outright traitors.

I hope I eat my words, but we'll be lucky to hold the Senate. We're going to lose the House and we are going to see a lot of losses in state assemblies as well. We need a sustained hard-right shift in the party and something to vote for in order to energize the voters.

Blogger Damelon Brinn September 19, 2018 3:25 PM  

FYI: "I hope I'm wrong" never really sounds genuine.

Blogger James Dixon September 19, 2018 3:26 PM  

> While the DEMS are unlikely to take the Senate, everything (Polls, Fundraising, Enthusiasm, Retirements) point to the Dems taking the house.

> I hope I eat my words, but we'll be lucky to hold the Senate.

And Trump has a ceiling of 25% and will never get the nomination, right? And if he does it'll be a landslide electoral college for Hillary, right? Quit believing the polls. They're propaganda. Go out and vote. That's the only poll that matters.

> We need a sustained hard-right shift in the party and something to vote for in order to energize the voters.

And the prospect of losing the house isn't enough of one?

Blogger VD September 19, 2018 3:26 PM  

This is GOP fantasy.

It literally just happened. It's not fantasy, it's reality. Stop cucking.

Blogger BassmanCO September 19, 2018 3:27 PM  

A whole lot of negative prognostication from names I have never seen before. You guys don't know how this place works, do you?

Blogger James Dixon September 19, 2018 3:29 PM  

> You guys don't know how this place works, do you?

The paymaster doesn't care enough to pay for the very best.

Blogger Unknownsailor September 19, 2018 3:36 PM  

@73

Read this, and stop with the cynicism:

https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/5gdwgs/president_trumps_will_never_list_updated/

Blogger Dirk Manly September 19, 2018 3:39 PM  

@73

"I saw a poll today that only 30% of people think Trump .... "

If you believe a poll published by the MSM, you've been living under a rock in the back of a cave for the last 50 years.

Blogger BassmanCO September 19, 2018 3:44 PM  

Haxo Angmark wrote:"Trumpslide 2020", if it happens at all,

will look about like "Trumpslide 2016":

he'll creak thru in the EC, while losing the popular vote

by an even larger margin.


Hildebeast only won the popular vote because of California (and if you think there were no shenanigans in that state, I have a bridge to sell you), so try again.

Blogger James Dixon September 19, 2018 4:05 PM  

> he'll creak thru in the EC, while losing the popular vote

304 electoral votes is not a "creak thru". And the popular vote doesn't matter.

Blogger ZotZotDig September 19, 2018 4:06 PM  

We are talking about using a Texas State Assembly race as a proxy for congressional races across the country? If you are willing to take this example as evidence the Dems won't do well in the coming mid terms, then what do you make of the various special House and Senate races where Dems have either won in places where Trump won or came extraordinarily close to winning in places they haven't come close to before?

The House is already in the hands of the Dems.

The only question is how will Trump react to the end of his legislative agenda?

Blogger BassmanCO September 19, 2018 4:09 PM  

ZotZotDig, seriously, I have this awesome bridge for sale in New York. totally fair price. You'll make a fortune.

Blogger James Dixon September 19, 2018 4:10 PM  

> The House is already in the hands of the Dems.

No, it's not. But thanks for resorting to lies to make your case. It makes it much easier to evaluate your comments.

> The only question is how will Trump react to the end of his legislative agenda?

There's this book you might want to read: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B000SEGE6M/

Blogger James Dixon September 19, 2018 4:12 PM  

> ZotZotDig, seriously, I have this awesome bridge for sale in New York.

I've got one in California and some prime Florida real estate I can offer too. The Arizona oceanfront property isn't for sale.

Blogger ZotZotDig September 19, 2018 4:15 PM  

"304 electoral votes is not a "creak thru"."

Based on past elections it is a "creak thru". Going back to the turn of the century, only six winners have gotten fewer Electoral Votes than Trump. Moreover, only one time did those six winners lose the popular vote.

In other words. Support for Trump was just about as razor thin as you can get.

Add that to the fact that the party in power almost always loses house seats in the mid terms.

Add that to the fact that Special House and Senate elections since the 2016 election have seen Democrats thoroughly outperform expectations.

Add that to the fact that polls, money, enthusiast all show Democrats with the advantage.

Blogger tuberman September 19, 2018 4:26 PM  


So, now the black pill shills show.

Blogger Dirk Manly September 19, 2018 4:31 PM  

@88

"Add that to the fact that the party in power almost always loses house seats in the mid terms."

Who is more popular with the Republican base?

George Bush or Donald Trump?

George Bush gained several house seats in 2002.

Trump will gain many.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2018 4:35 PM  

@ZZD, Isn't it Yom Kippur? I hope you're getting double time for working on a national holiday.

Blogger James Dixon September 19, 2018 4:38 PM  

> Based on past elections it is a "creak thru". Going back to the turn of the century, only six winners have gotten fewer Electoral Votes than Trump.

Going back to the turn of the century, there have only been four elections.

However, for those who wish to peruse the actual figures: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_Electoral_College_margin

Infogalactic's page doesn't list the Trump results. Of the 58 Presidential elections held, Trump's comes in at number 46. In the bottom 20%, but nowhere near the bottom. Ahead of such luminaries as John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush, and Woodrow Wilson.

> Moreover, only one time did those six winners lose the popular vote.

That's not surprising since Wikipedia says it's only happened five times.

> In other words. Support for Trump was just about as razor thin as you can get.

In other words, you're lying.

Blogger Azimus September 19, 2018 4:47 PM  

91. James Dixon September 19, 2018 4:38 PM

In other words, you're lying.


That was beautiful....

Blogger ZotZotDig September 19, 2018 4:55 PM  

Dixon Wrote:

"Of the 58 Presidential elections held, Trump's comes in at number 46. In the bottom 20%"

I rest my case. It was a creak thru of historic proportions.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2018 5:05 PM  

@ZZD,
What's your point? What's your objective? Why the fuck are you here?

Blogger Garuna September 19, 2018 5:08 PM  

@ZotZotDig

You're a paranoid wreck because you're a political n00b. None of these narratives we see are new. And you don't actually know what happens if Congress is split.

1) As I showed in my previous post, support for Republicans has been consistently underestimated in midterms by up to 6%. Additionally, they're even more wrong when month/s away from the midterms. If you look at the 2016 polls, they had Trump in the late 30% range for a while. Then they made it closer in the last 1-2 weeks to retain credibility when the election turned out to be close like it always was. Sadly for them, Trump ended up winning the whole thing. Now they claim "we were only off by 2%", when many polls were off by about 10% at this point.

2) You need to ignore people with a terrible prediction track record. And follow people who have a good track record and are actually involved in politics. The people with credibility (eg. Ali Alexander - Republican political operative, who I will mention again later in this post) say that Republicans will GAIN seats in the Senate, especially now that Chemtrail Kelly Ward has been removed from the equation. If Democrats will be LOSING ground in the Senate, that alone disqualifies the idea of a "Blue Wave".

3) Democrats will gain seats in the House and may win it. But it's not some doomsday scenario like many are crying about. Because:
---A) bipartisan legislation will still be passed, such as prison reform and infrastructure.
---B) Trump will be able to appoint anyone he wants, including the Supreme Court, because of his increased support in the Senate.
---C)He will continue with his North Korea and other foreign policy victories. The economy will continue its strong show. Deregulation will continue. Trump will continue winning the trade wars. Trump will continue to renegotiate trade deals. None of these are hampered by a Democrat House. In fact, Trump doesn't have much of a legislative agenda left beyond immigration reform. Speaking of which...
---C) There are several ways to get the Wall built without the support of Congress. Such as appropriating military funds. Ali Alexander (who has been 100% accurate when it comes to breaking news related to policy) has said that Trump has several alternate strategies to build the Wall and he will build it by hook or by crook.
---D) Again, as Republicans will control the Senate, Trump cannot be removed. If the House tries to create a circus by impeaching him, they will fail to remove him. Further, it will only boost his support and energize his base to vote in 2020.

The ideal scenario is that Republicans keep the House and deliver everything including full immigration reform. The worst case scenario is that we get everything except on the immigration front, we only get the Wall instead of the full reform.

Blackpillers are often historically and politically illiterate.

Blogger Garuna September 19, 2018 5:15 PM  

D)* E)*

Blogger James Dixon September 19, 2018 5:17 PM  

> I rest my case. It was a creak thru of historic proportions.

No comment about the people who came in below him then? Five of the elections since 1960, inclusive (Kennedy, the first Nixon election, Carter, and both of the G. W. Bush elections)? Surprise, surprise.

You're delusional, but I was wrong about one thing, as my math was a quick approximation. A check with a calculator says it's actually outside the 20% boundary.

Blogger Silly but True September 19, 2018 5:20 PM  

The one certainty is if Dems take House, Trump will join Clinton as a footnote in encyclopedia entries for “U.S. Presidents: Impeachment.” BFD.

Everyone remembers Starr but forgets Clinton still managed to operate his administration’s final term with seven (7) separate Independent Prosecutors all running their own separate investigations into him and various cabinet & agency heads. Again, BFD.

Blogger weka September 19, 2018 5:20 PM  

ZZG, it does not matter. Consider NZ... National (read centrist republicans)got the .let votes by 10 points over their nearest opponents but are not in power. Because the losing parties formed a coalition.

Try l won on your files. Put on your big girl panties and deal with it. And thank God you are not in the Commonwealth, where we have Theresa Justin and Jacinda.

Blogger Noah B. September 19, 2018 5:29 PM  

CNN's ratings don't portend this blue wave we've been hearing about. They're down a staggering 41% year on year. That has to be an indicator of low enthusiasm on the left.

Blogger ZotZotDig September 19, 2018 5:30 PM  

"If Democrats will be LOSING ground in the Senate, that alone disqualifies the idea of a "Blue Wave"."

The Dems winning the senate has been recognized as a long shot by everyone. The fact that most Senate seats up in 2018 are Democrat assures this long shot. Don't move the goal post on "Blue Wave". Everyone is talking about the House switching due to the "Blue Wave".

The Dems are taking over the House and this the Blue Wave everyone is talking about. That fact ends the Trump legislative agenda. Period. YES, come 2020 Trump and the GOP....Who can't get anything done....take the blame.

Don't talk to me about politics. 1) you don't know who you are talking to. 2) I've been doing real politics longer than you. 3) you keep demonstrating your ignorance. 4) the fact that you move the goal post so soon demonstrates your inability to simply admit the facts.

Blogger ZotZotDig September 19, 2018 5:31 PM  

"CNN's ratings don't portend this blue wave we've been hearing about. They're down a staggering 41% year on year. That has to be an indicator of low enthusiasm on the left."

The better proxy is MSNBC. Rating way up!

Blogger Tars Tarkas September 19, 2018 5:34 PM  

@95 "2) You need to ignore people with a terrible prediction track record."

In 2016, I was pretty sure Trump was going to win, partially because of the enthusiasm. Trump was giving speeches to huge stadiums full of wildly enthusiastic people and he was doing it virtually every day. Trump supporters were also dominating social media.

Sean Last and Ryan Faulk did a breakdown of the polls about a month or so before the elections and came to the conclusion, from the very same polling data the pros were using, that Trump had a very good chance of winning and would likely win. They have both said the polls now look accurate.

OTOH, the social climate has gotten much worse. I think there are probably shy voters for the right. And, the non-stop anti-Trump is double edged sword. It fires up the left and wears on the right, but it also causes people to tune out and probably makes a lot of people mad.

I will absolutely be voting and I've been contacting my representatives. We've got to be making our voices heard.

Blogger Tars Tarkas September 19, 2018 5:37 PM  

@zotzotdig
Damn, I'm popping black pills, but you're outright rooting for the other side!

Blogger ZotZotDig September 19, 2018 5:41 PM  

"Damn, I'm popping black pills, but you're outright rooting for the other side!"

It's not a matter of rooting for anyone. It's a matter of common sense and reading the obvious political landscape.

Blogger James Dixon September 19, 2018 5:44 PM  

> The Dems are taking over the House and this the Blue Wave everyone is talking about.

Liar. The Dem's have been predicting they'll take the Senate too.

> That fact ends the Trump legislative agenda. Period.

No, it won't.

> YES, come 2020 Trump and the GOP....Who can't get anything done....take the blame.

Not among Republicans or independents he won't. They'll know who's to blame.

> Don't talk to me about politics. 1) you don't know who you are talking to.

Who, no. What, yes.

2) I've been doing real politics longer than you.

Define "doing real politics". But I doubt you've followed politics longer than I have.

> 3) you keep demonstrating your ignorance. 4) the fact that you move the goal post so soon demonstrates your inability to simply admit the facts.

Projection.

> Same as yours.

Damn. Where's my paycheck?

Blogger Frank Lee September 19, 2018 5:54 PM  

I think by now it should be obvious that the Democratic leadership isn't thinking beyond tomorrow. Those still in office want to stay there, even if that means America falls around them. And those supporting the corrupt office holders simply want to keep their paychecks. The "blue wave" is simply a fundraising ploy. A desperate way to try to convince people to keep giving the Democrats money even though it is clearly a party on decline. They can't run on issues because their base is insane and doesn't want to think about real solutions. So they can only run on attacking Trump and trying to pretend he isn't as wildly popular as he really is.

Blogger John D Alden September 19, 2018 5:55 PM  

"What's your point? What's your objective? Why the fuck are you here?"

Same as yours.


Snidely isn't a happy FUD merchant.

Blogger Garuna September 19, 2018 5:55 PM  

@ZotZotDig

>You're right about the Senate
>This means I win

I'll ignore your goalpost-moving and projection on what "Blue Wave" meant last year. The only relevant fact is that almost none of Trump's agenda requires him to have control of the House. This misery-fap is dumb.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2018 6:02 PM  

Garuna wrote:Blackpillers are often historically and politically illiterate.

You misspelled always.

Nothing can ever change. Until everything changes.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2018 6:03 PM  

ZotZotDig wrote:Same as yours.
That is a lie. A very obvious and blatant lie. Stop lying, you paid shill.

Blogger Crew September 19, 2018 6:10 PM  

Don't talk to me about politics. 1) you don't know who you are talking to. 2) I've been doing real politics longer than you. 3) you keep demonstrating your ignorance. 4) the fact that you move the goal post so soon demonstrates your inability to simply admit the facts.

Ahhh, a man who likes to point out how big his dick is.

Blogger Crew September 19, 2018 6:12 PM  

"While the DEMS are unlikely to take the Senate, everything (Polls, Fundraising, Enthusiasm, Retirements) point to the Dems taking the house."

Just like 2016, eh?

Blogger Dirk Manly September 19, 2018 6:17 PM  

@101

"Don't talk to me about politics. 1) you don't know who you are talking to. 2) I've been doing real politics longer than you. 3) you keep demonstrating your ignorance. 4) the fact that you move the goal post so soon demonstrates your inability to simply admit the facts."

So you're, who, the guy who works for Soros and hacks voting machines to record R votes as D votes....

Blogger Crew September 19, 2018 6:18 PM  

@91: What you talkin' 'bout Willis?

https://infogalactic.com/info/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_Electoral_College_margin

Blogger VD September 19, 2018 6:35 PM  

Guys, ZotZotDig is a troll. Stop responding to him. There is absolutely no point whatsoever in engaging with him.

Stop touching the poop.

Blogger Garuna September 19, 2018 6:36 PM  

Stop touching the poop.

k

Blogger VD September 19, 2018 6:38 PM  

What's your point? What's your objective? Why the fuck are you here?

Snidely, FFS, are you really so obtuse that you cannot recognize an obvious troll? Why on Earth are you engaging with one, LET ALONE asking him why he is here?

Some of you seem to have lost the discipline you had before we required registration for the comments.

Blogger Dirk Manly September 19, 2018 6:58 PM  

I think what happened here is that ZOGZOGZOG had posted here a few times before, and while demonstrating obtuseness, didn't go on a trolling binge.

So...we've learned something. Some trolls are starting to take steps to at least make themselves appear to be "established" before going on a trolling binge.

Blogger tz September 19, 2018 7:02 PM  

.. If the left loses they will burn down their own cities.

Good, urban renewal, as long as they also do the segre-Gated communities.

About a month ago I started predicting a red Tsunami, predicated on the loony left continuing to go full screaming crazy axe murderer insane. Well they are not merely doing that but doubling down. They are also burning any info from "flyover" country. I'm watching Montana, and with the Kavanaugh calumny, Tester is not merely toast, but charcoal.

This is before the Trump grand nationalization Continue MAGA tour. And Trump doesn't need to do much more than quote the Democrats - Pelosi, Schumer, Feinstine, Mad Maxine, Hillary... And the #FakeNews media.

If they could just stop they might have a chance at not doing an epic debacle, but can't help themselves. They've hired Musk's Boring Company to dig deeper before November.

Blogger Chiva September 19, 2018 7:25 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Anonymous Anonymous September 19, 2018 8:39 PM  

@20 I met Beto at a drug legalization conference ten years ago, along with the Where's Aleppo guy and Montel (he didn't bring the psychic, damn).

Beto is your Soros candidate 100%.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 19, 2018 8:45 PM  

Has the left one success and that was against the eccentric Roy Moore?

Blogger James Dixon September 19, 2018 9:26 PM  

> @91: What you talkin' 'bout Willis?

I swear it wasn't there when I checked from work earlier today. Most likely I was getting a cached copy.

> Has the left one success and that was against the eccentric Roy Moore?

The won a special election in SW Pa. too. There may have been one or two others.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 19, 2018 9:35 PM  

SW PA was a gun loving D as far as Ds go

Blogger Robert What? September 19, 2018 9:44 PM  

The sole purpose of the Blue Wave narrative is to dishearten Red voters into thinking that there is no point in even showing up to vote; that it's all lost. So make sure to get out and vote. No excuses.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2018 11:17 PM  

VD wrote:Snidely, FFS, are you really so obtuse that you cannot recognize an obvious troll? Why on Earth are you engaging with one, LET ALONE asking him why he is here?


Yes, I knew he was a troll. But he'd been here about two weeks, and since you and the mods were not removing him, I assumed that there was some larger purpose to leaving him here.

And that purpose could only be for me to goad him and make it plain that he was a shill. Egotism requires it.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 19, 2018 11:20 PM  

I'm sorry to have disappointed you, Dark Lord.

I will report for Weltanshauung readjustment.

Blogger Jack Amok September 20, 2018 12:48 AM  

I think we can all learn from BassmanCO here. He didn't try to argue or reason with the troll, he quite reasonably tried to sell him a bridge to live under.

Anonymous Anonymous September 20, 2018 1:15 AM  

Bassman is a true American entrepreneur. His copy of Art of the Deal clearly isn't just for decoration.

Blogger Garuna September 20, 2018 1:25 AM  

Interesting analysis.

"You often here the phrase “The president's party loses an average of 32 House seats in their first midterm” And because of this, we are to assume that the Republicans will automatically lose the House since the Democrats only need 23 seats to take the House back. However, after further research by our team- we realized those averages weren’t exactly true. [...] On average, Democrat presidents lose 35.2 seats in the House. Republican presidents only lose 11.2 seats in the House in their first midterm on average."

https://etholytics.com/house-seat-loss-by-presidents-party-has-been-inflated-by-democrat-presidents/

Blogger VD September 20, 2018 3:56 AM  

Yes, I knew he was a troll. But he'd been here about two weeks, and since you and the mods were not removing him, I assumed that there was some larger purpose to leaving him here.

Sometimes we're too busy to deal with the petty trolls as long as they're on their best behavior. That doesn't mean you should engage with them. If you know, if you even suspect, that a commenter is a troll or a paid shill, ignore them.

Their WHOLE PURPOSE is to get you to do what you did. Do you still not get that?

Blogger DJT September 20, 2018 6:13 AM  

They will lose some seats in the House due to redistricting alone.

No, this cannot be left open as a possibility. A Dem house will be an utter disaster. The best we could hope for is that they overplay their hand ahead of 2020, but it's not worth the risk.

EVERYONE who voted Trump had Better vote Republican, or else.

Blogger James Dixon September 20, 2018 6:33 AM  

> EVERYONE who voted Trump had Better vote Republican, or else.

In my case in the Senate race the resident Democrat is probably more of Trump supporter than the Republican running to replace him. And I wouldn't vote for my Republican representative for dog catcher. But I won't be voting for a Democrat in either case. And in both cases I expect the incumbent to win handily, no matter how I vote.

Blogger James Dixon September 20, 2018 6:34 AM  

> I will report for Weltanshauung readjustment.

I guess I'll have to join you.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother September 20, 2018 9:45 AM  

I SENTENCE YOU BOTH TO TWO WEEKS IN THE BOX....

WITH CARDINAL WUERL

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 20, 2018 11:24 AM  

Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:I SENTENCE YOU BOTH TO TWO WEEKS IN THE BOX....

WITH CARDINAL WUERL

You want a dead cardinal then?
Okay. I can do that.

Blogger DJT September 20, 2018 3:51 PM  

>In my case in the Senate race the resident Democrat is probably more of Trump supporter than the Republican running to replace him.

I get that. My rep is a huge cuck. But it's about party control more than the guy himself.

You can have 49 Trumps in the Senate, but if you don't have 50 it doesn't matter at all.

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