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Thursday, November 22, 2018

Are you joking?


Tucker Carlson demonstrates how nationalists care about their nation more than they do about maximizing corporate profits in a very public spanking of Fake American Ben Shapiro.
So would you, Tucker Carlson, be in favor of restrictions on the ability of trucking companies to use this sort of technology specifically to, you know, sort of artificially maintain the number of jobs that are available in the trucking energy?

Are you joking? In a second. In a second! In other words, if I were president and ran the DOT, Department of Transportation, we're not letting driverless trucks on the road, period. Why? Really simple. Driving for a living is the single most common job for high school educated men in this country in all 50 states. Okay, that's the same group whose wages have gone down by 11 percent over the past thirty years. The social cost of limiting their jobs in a ten-year span, five-year span, thirty-year span is so high that it's not sustainable, so the greater good is protecting your citizens.

Look, capitalism is the best economic system I can think of, I think that anyone's ever thought of, but that doesn't mean that it's a religion and everything about it is good. There's no Nicene Creed of capitalism that I have to buy into, what I care about is living in a country where decent people can live happy lives, and so, no, I would say, no, are you joking?
The duty of the nation's leaders is to strive to benefit the actual nation, not "the economy", not the corporations, and certainly not foreigners who happen to be in possession of paperwork that permits them to live among the nationals.

Labels: ,

223 Comments:

1 – 200 of 223 Newer› Newest»
Blogger Rory November 22, 2018 5:05 AM  

It is one of those articles of faith, that something will come along to replace, say, trucking. The driving will go away, but jobs will come along to replace them (e.g. building/coding/repairing the trucks). But what's always troubled me about that line of reasoning is that there's a reason one automated the job in the first place: to reduce labour costs. You buy a tractor because you need fewer men tilling the field (or you can keep the same number employed, but their bargaining position is reduced, meaning lower wages).

That said, capital freed up from one place is supposed to go elsewhere, right? Fewer truckers are employed, but now it can be invested in some new field that, supposedly, the trucker can get a job in. But then the reality is that that... doesn't happen. Or we're not seeing that happen. The capital goes elsewhere. So is the problem that jobs aren't actually being created/shifted around inherent to capitalism, or is it a different aspect of what's wrong with the present economic situation, that has that capital horded/invested in things that aren't producing blue collar jobs?

Blogger Unknown November 22, 2018 5:06 AM  

Christianity 1 : 0 Judaism

Anonymous Anonymous November 22, 2018 5:16 AM  

The problem is that "free trade", as well as meaning free movement of people also means free movement of capital.

THAT is why the capital "goes elsewhere".

You can be a nationalist but the corporate accountants who manage corporate investments are not. They're not loyal to anything except the margin of profit, and if that means sending asian children down titanium mines to make an extra 0.5% profit, they're happy to do it. If that means condemning YOUR children to life in the poorhouse (at best) well, that's just how the cookie crumbles. You can't make an omelette without some eggs getting broke.

The stupid thing is, maintaining the wealth of the working middle class is the primary bulwark of civilisation. Because the only alternative is to degrade it, which dooms your civilisation. There's a reason why the scripture includes a prayer to not make me so rich that I become a scumbag nor make me so poor that I become a thief.

But all of us alive today were taught by socialist scum in our school systems to despise the middle class, i.e. ourselves and our civilisation. They're not even shy about it - they've been telling us for decades that they mean to destroy us.

Trump is absolutely correct to put restrictions on the movement of capital outwards across the borders. It is as vital as keeping people from moving in across the same borders.

...

OT: MI6 is trying to stop Trump from declassifying the Russia fantasy FISA documents. Just ponder that for a moment, as you ponder nationalism vs globalism.

Blogger idprism November 22, 2018 6:03 AM  

Stefan replied in the libertarian (globalist) frame. I wonder if he needs an economics education to see the nationalist argument as valid or even moral.

That Tucker interview presented such a stark contrast of libertarian cuckery and nationalist populism. I hope it produces many memes to come.

Blogger Rickaby007 November 22, 2018 6:09 AM  

Money-focused liberals are cancer. Libertarianism etc. is Mammon worship.

Blogger The Cooler November 22, 2018 6:10 AM  

What's the limiting principle?

It's all such a slippery slope, isn't it? Shapiro is one of those rare Millennials that are more Boomer than Boomer.

Blogger Garuna November 22, 2018 6:11 AM  

Trump's election should've ended Shapiro's career. But it didn't because the American Right lacks discernment. And for the past two years, they've anesthetized themselves with "muh individualism" and lost the House. Sad!

Hopefully 2018 results wake Trump up and he dumps the likes of BASED Candace Owens in favor of actual nationalism that won him the White House.

Blogger Winston Smith November 22, 2018 6:21 AM  

Don't worry, he'll unleash his inner socialist when some Russian and Macedonian teens unveil a machine learning-driven setup that can write pro-Republican articles that appeal to the dwindling Tea Party/Reaganite crowd.

Blogger Teleport me off this rock November 22, 2018 6:22 AM  

@1 - What capital? Corporations are so eager to reduce "labor" costs because they're so desperate to service their debt. Junk bonds are back and bigger than ever, baby!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4210321-record-corporate-debt-next-financial-crisis-5-things-investors-need-know?page=3

Blogger English Tom November 22, 2018 6:26 AM  

@Rory

Blue collar jobs are on the way out. Check out the book, Rise of the Robots by Martin Ford. A great wave of automation/robotics will hit the world over the next 20 years. This certainly gives the lie to the garbage argument that migrants will do the jobs whites won't do, as there won't be many jobs left for anyone.
The elites see us as useless eaters. Once automation/robotics cascades fully through economies, they wont need us anymore. They'll try and kill off as many as possible. See: the Georgia Guidestones.

Blogger JohnC911 November 22, 2018 6:29 AM  

I know Stefan was arguing why tucker was wrong and the free market is always right. I think tucker was right here

Blogger Mark Stoval November 22, 2018 6:38 AM  

John Calabro wrote:I know Stefan was arguing why tucker was wrong and the free market is always right. I think tucker was right here

The problem with most arguments by liberals, libertarians, conservatives, right-wingers, and even populists is that there is no free market. There is a market, yes; but it damn sure is not a free market.

I doubt most college graduates could define laissez faire, and when was the last time you saw, "that government that governs the least governs the best"?

We are a failing Empire. There is damn little "freedom" left here. I have to get the city to approve of my choice of paint before I lay a brush to my house!

Free-market my ass.

Blogger Rory November 22, 2018 6:41 AM  

@English Tom - yeah, I mean, I understand that, but that's the crucial question here, right? *Will* that happen? The libertarian argument is that the capital moves to new markets. But as Don't Call Me Len points out, that capital is actually servicing debt (or at least, that's part of the question of where that money-saved is going). It's also supposed to create new opportunities, creating new markets, creating jobs.

It's one of those things that, if you google for some empirical data, you'll find people on both sides digging up data to back up their view. And the economy being what it is (especially the American one), it's so wide and varied, you can sort of hone in wherever you want to paint a positive/negative picture and accuse your opponent of not looking at the things you looked at.

As far as I'm aware, there isn't some clear study/book that abstracts out the effect of globalisation/immigration, abstracts out the effect of (((financial manipulations))) and government influences (subsides, regulations, etc), and just actually shows, say, "There was a ratio of X available jobs that an average man could do in 1800, and then a lower ratio in 1900 after industrialisation was well under way."

So I mean, I don't want to be so naive as to subscribe to the idea that "the market will sort everything out", but I'm wary about saying we definitely need the government to outlaw certain industries/innovations or something without clearer evidence of what automation is actually responsible for, on its own.

Blogger Lucas November 22, 2018 6:45 AM  

That is a video every Christian nationalist should see and wonder why is it that "conservative" (((Ben Shapiro))) cares more for capitalism than the welfare of Americans.

It's hilarious how (((Ben)) tries to usurp the Bible for his globalist, anti-nationalistic agenda. These are not good people.

Blogger FrankNorman November 22, 2018 6:45 AM  

..."the capital is servicing debt"...

So the real reason that there's so much unemployment is that companies cannot find funds to hire more people because the banksters are sucking them dry?

Blogger Steb November 22, 2018 6:50 AM  

Let individuals beta test driverless vehicles on themselves if they want. Trucks should be the last thing to switch over, not the first.

The difference between this and the McDonalds self service screens is that the people in those jobs were already dissatisfied and asking for more money. The truckers are happy with their wages as far as I know. That's the rule I'd apply to prevent the slippery slope argument.

Blogger Wishing Star November 22, 2018 7:01 AM  

Where is the anointing oil....

Blogger English Tom November 22, 2018 7:10 AM  

@Rory

If govt has to get involved I thi k it could only be by bringing I a universal basic income (ie a tax on the companies making massive productivity gains by utilising said robotics/automation). Otherwise we have huge numbers of people with no future. Not a,nice thought!

Blogger dienw November 22, 2018 7:10 AM  

I could only bear the Littlest Weasel for less than 5 minutes; even though Tucker did most of the speaking. The Littlest Weasel with his own words showed that he cared little for the United States and the general welfare of its people; he plainly displayed the (((stereotype))): the love of money over all; he is not one of us.

This is the same attitude that caused me to turn away from Limbaugh nearly fifteen years ago: he did not care that the average worker was being thrown out of jobs; he declared that they merely needed to retrain up to new technology.

Blogger dienw November 22, 2018 7:15 AM  

Unknown wrote:Christianity 1 : 0 Judaism
The Littlest Weasel would be shocked to discover God demanded the freeing of slaves, the cancelling of debt, and the return of property every seven years and at the Jubilee.

Blogger dienw November 22, 2018 7:21 AM  

Winston Smith wrote:Don't worry, he'll unleash his inner socialist when some Russian and Macedonian teens unveil a machine learning-driven setup that can write pro-Republican articles that appeal to the dwindling Tea Party/Reaganite crowd.

Probably can already be done. The shills learn to do it rather quickly; so an application could be built to create "conservative" essays.

Blogger The Cooler November 22, 2018 7:23 AM  

Global Plutocracy: It's (((biblically mandated))). Okay, gang?

Blogger Lucas November 22, 2018 7:24 AM  

By the way, the comment section on YouTube it's literally another holocaust.

Blogger john darson November 22, 2018 7:24 AM  

Ben Shapiro says that the middle class is evolving into the upper middle class: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnbVu8QXCMY&t=7m40s

Given the changes in the past 40 years since laissez faire, something seems fishy about this notion, considering the higher cost ofliving etc. What is the truth here?

Blogger cmbaileytstc November 22, 2018 7:29 AM  

Tucker is magnificent. How’d he get a job working at Faux?

Blogger Lazarus November 22, 2018 7:32 AM  

john darson wrote:What is the truth here?

search:

AMERICA'S SHRINKING MIDDLE CLASS

Blogger Colin Flaherty's baby mama November 22, 2018 7:34 AM  

@18 English Tom,
Your government income will not be universal. Bad boys like you will be cut off or confined.
They provide welfare, stolen from tax slaves, to the undercounted supernumerary "minority" hordes now in order to use them as a political & biological weapons.

Blogger Avalanche November 22, 2018 7:37 AM  

Does (((he))) light his stage so very darkly in order to hide the yarmulke?

Shapiro pulls up the Biblical "Leave your land" direction, intending it for all the dispossessed / newly jobless. And I love Tucker whacking back "leave your parents graves?"

I think the Dark Lord mentioned recently (or I was listening to an old DarkStream?): the Biblical directions to *one* person (in Vox's talk, was it to Judas?) were NOT intended as mass instruction to all people.

(((He))) is for sure a poisonous SNAKE!

Blogger rumpole5 November 22, 2018 7:38 AM  

How about a system requiring a certain percentage of human input into the final revenue generating product of any corporate entity.
And a limit on the percent of total revenue that can be paid out of the profits of a government sanctioned corporation to employees and shareholders.

The government created limited liability corporations. They have no natural rights at all.

Blogger James Dixon November 22, 2018 7:40 AM  

They made a movie about a self dribing truck once: https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0067023/

Blogger VD November 22, 2018 7:41 AM  

So the real reason that there's so much unemployment is that companies cannot find funds to hire more people because the banksters are sucking them dry?

The financial industry sucks up one-third of ALL corporate profits.

Blogger VD November 22, 2018 7:42 AM  

What is the truth here?

Why do you even need to ask? If Ben Shapiro is on one side, then you already know that side is not the truth.

Blogger john darson November 22, 2018 7:44 AM  

"Why do you even need to ask? If Ben Shapiro is on one side, then you already know that side is not the truth."

That is the assumption, but I am wondering which particular metric benji/neocons neglect to mention when they say the middle class is turning into the upper middle class.

Blogger The Lab Manager November 22, 2018 7:48 AM  

ExecMBAmoron#1: How is the marketing plan going?

ExecMBAmoron#2: We are targeting this product to mid-career and upper management types making $80k to $100k per year.

ExecMBAmorong#1: That's great! How is the labor cost cutting going?

ExecMBAmoron#2: I'm targeting all mid-career and management making $80k to $100k for buyouts or 'happy sizing'.

Blogger rumpole5 November 22, 2018 7:48 AM  

Perhaps our corporate moguls should contemplate the position of the vast and grand religious abbeys before and after the 1530s when Henry VIII abolished them, took their property, and turned out every Jack (and Jill) of them into the street.

Blogger VD November 22, 2018 7:50 AM  

I am wondering which particular metric benji/neocons neglect to mention when they say the middle class is turning into the upper middle class.

All of them. The only way he could possibly begin to try to make the case is to ignore inflation and point to rising salaries.

Blogger Colin Flaherty's baby mama November 22, 2018 8:05 AM  

They are the masters. You are the livestock.
That is how much they care about you or your nations or ideals. Look at paid employee Hillary Clinton reading a script telling you how much she loves all the people for the good of humanity, when she would slaughter you all in a heartbeat if she could get away with it. That is their game.
Once you no longer serve their interests, you will be liquidated.
Current society is designed to destroy you because they don't need you anymore, and you have become a liability.

Blogger Behemoth November 22, 2018 8:06 AM  

Ok, but this is the same argument that had Luddites smashing textile machines, or the French button makers objecting to tailors making cloth buttons and thus reducing demand for their product, and thus getting the government to ban cloth buttons? Or, for that matter, it's the sort of argument that would oppose the rise of farm machinery because the majority of the population worked in agriculture and if we automate that what will those workers do?

Stephan was 100% right in his critique of Tucker's performance. Like a lot of issues, blaming 'automation' is just misaimed.

Blogger maniacprovost November 22, 2018 8:07 AM  

Automation does not reduce costs... It increases production. At a basic level, increased production or less labor is good.

It is certainly possible that automation can reduce the available jobs. The increased production should, in theory, constitute increased demand. The percent of jobs lost to trucking can be made up in welding and construction, but maybe it wouldn't be.

Let's say that automating trucking has some overall negative consequences for blue collar jobs. In the medium term it's a net negative for "society."

These kinds of technological problems are the minority compared to the benefits, which are self evident all around us. The scale of the problem is insignificantly small in comparison to our real labor problems, the 70 million blue collar and lower tier immigrants that are absorbing the capital increases we should have benefitted from.

Blogger SupersonicG November 22, 2018 8:10 AM  

The Nrx 'leader' Jim (jim's Blog) is not a Christian, hence he favours unbridled capitalism and desires a 'nation state' not a nation. He wants to accumulate vast wealth so he and his sons can escape to another planet, what a joke.

I feel quite sad for guys like him and the dupes who follow that creed. Coveting everything, always, no gratitude for what God has given us here on earth.

Blogger DJT November 22, 2018 8:13 AM  

Tucker 2024

Blogger ZhukovG November 22, 2018 8:14 AM  

Tucker Carlson 2024!

Blogger pyrrhus November 22, 2018 8:28 AM  

Elon Musk tried to fully automate his factories, with catastrophic results...As did GM 30 years ago..A surgical robot just went nuts and killed the patient in the UK...Even if the problems of translating LIDAR into correct data are solved, all programs crash and require periodic maintenance..And autonomous trucks will require a huge capital investment...Color me skeptical about the whole thing.

Blogger CynicalMan November 22, 2018 8:42 AM  

So should the railroads be broken up to produce more demand for trucking and hence truck drivers?

Blogger VD November 22, 2018 8:46 AM  

Ok, but this is the same argument that had Luddites smashing textile machines, or the French button makers objecting to tailors making cloth buttons and thus reducing demand for their product, and thus getting the government to ban cloth buttons?

So what? The fact that an argument is correct in one specific moment of time and space does not mean it always is. Your logic is totally fallacious.

Like a lot of issues, blaming 'automation' is just misaimed.

You really should parroting opinions you clearly don't understand. You're not fooling anyone.

Blogger VD November 22, 2018 8:47 AM  

So should the railroads be broken up to produce more demand for trucking and hence truck drivers?

Probably not, since the national infrastructure is too fragile to support such a change.

Blogger English Tom November 22, 2018 8:53 AM  

@Colin Flaherty's baby momma

You make a good point. The worst case scenario being once cash is outlawed and money becomes electronic, wrongthinkers can be frozen out of the system. No money, you die, a slow and painful death.

Blogger dienw November 22, 2018 8:54 AM  

@ maniacprovost
You are not paying attention. You think no further than the bottom line; you're Lab Manager's prototypical ExecMBAmoron.

Blogger The Depolrable Podunk Ken Ramsey November 22, 2018 8:56 AM  

It looks like Kevin D. Williamson's "Garbutt, NY" tour-de-force article pissed off Tucker, too. Rightfully. The shocking inhumanity of our enemies' willingness to throw our entire society under the the bus is only eclipsed in soullessness by their eagerness to hurl self-righteous invective at us while they do so.

A pincher action is afoot. From the left they invade with foreigners and SJWs, from the right they line Main St. with signs that say, "Going Out Of Business Sale".

Men like Tucker and Trump have been all too rare in the past, but the day has come for them to emerge. What a godsend that Tucker burned his bow ties.

Blogger English Tom November 22, 2018 8:59 AM  

@John Carson

The middle class is doomed. The initial wave of robotics/automation hit factory workers but the next wave will destroy the middle class, including doctors, lawyers, etc. See the book I mentioned upthread, also check out IBM's Watson regarding this. The idea that the middle class is evolving to an upper middle class is laughable.

Blogger English Tom November 22, 2018 8:59 AM  

Darson not Carson. Apologies

Blogger Chris Mallory November 22, 2018 9:05 AM  

English Tom wrote:Blue collar jobs are on the way out. Check out the book, Rise of the Robots by Martin Ford. A great wave of automation/robotics will hit the world over the next 20 years. This certainly gives the lie to the garbage argument that migrants will do the jobs whites won't do, as there won't be many jobs left for anyone.

I had this discussion with some conservatards about Basic Income.
They could not understand that we have two options, adopt the Basic Income or start mass deportations and roll back automation.
For some reason they think all the blue collar white guys put out of work by automation will turn into snowflakes and soyboys.
My suggestion that a couple million unemployed truck drivers, longshoremen, and other rough necks will lead to heads on pikes outside gated communities was brushed off with "They are snowflakes and we have guns. Conservative workers won't support this."
No, but Conservative husbands and fathers with starving children will.

Blogger FUBARwest November 22, 2018 9:06 AM  

It's strange to see Stefan agree with Shapiro here. Tucker was absolutely correct, Capitalism is not a religion. More people on the right need to start questioning our basic assumptions, I dont know the answer but hearing the same old arguments that do not factor in new information definitely seems like a mistake.

Also, basic heuristic, whatever Benji wants is not the correct position. Start there and move forward.

Blogger InformationMerchant November 22, 2018 9:07 AM  

I don't particularly like the principal used in the driveless truck part, I think the moving destroys roots principal was a really good one because the movement of people involved in free trade is the absolute best anti free trade argument because it's rare to find parents that want their 3 children to live in different countries, they want to see their grandchildren more than once every couple of years.

Shapiro accidentally makes the case that new nations will form using his way. If anything, I'm looking back at Vox's anti free trade argument and thinking free movement of people between the states was a mistake.

Blogger English Tom November 22, 2018 9:09 AM  

They are the masters, you are the livestock.

Nailed it.

Blogger camcleat November 22, 2018 9:11 AM  

@19

"This is the same attitude that caused me to turn away from Limbaugh nearly fifteen years ago: he did not care that the average worker was being thrown out of jobs; he declared that they merely needed to retrain up to new technology.."

Far from a Limbaugh apologist or regular listener; catch partial show about 1-2 times per month.

I hear what you are saying; Rush was cucking hard there for a while. But lately he's been mighty red-pilled and has said some rather Alt-Right, anti CivNat stuff lately.

It was quite surprising.

So, in the spirit of "give a man a chance to learn, grow and change," you may want to give him a listen these days. He sure ain't the worse thing out there.

In contrast, I caught a bit of some other guy's show - don't know who it was, Todd Starnes maybe but not sure. It was cuck-cuck-cuck-cuck and cuck-some-more. Two minutes of that crap and I was out.

Blogger Behemoth November 22, 2018 9:13 AM  

But there is no reason to think its any more valid an argument this time than it was the last time? What are the circumstances of this time and space that you say make this argument correct at this time but not when Ned Ludd was smashing Stocking Frames? Its not been correct at any time before, why is it correct now?

What is the factor that is making my argument fallacious?

Anonymous Anonymous November 22, 2018 9:15 AM  

The middle class is doomed.

People were making that argument for over 5 centuries and the middle class grew for most of that period, and technology provided massive continuous "labour-saving" productivity increases for most of that period, too.

It ain't necessarily so.

But I'll tell you this: destroy the middle class and everything worthy of calling civilisation goes with it.

Blogger English Tom November 22, 2018 9:15 AM  

@Maniacprovost

Re: jobs lost to trucking being made up by jobs in welding and construction.

There are robots that now do bricklaying. Robots with machine vision, coupled to AI will be doing the welding. A brave new world is being made, right now.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 22, 2018 9:15 AM  

Trump's election should've ended Shapiro's career. But it didn't because the American Right lacks discernment.

I'm convinced there's a fair amount of promotional funding behind him too. There's nothing organic about the constant shilling for him on /pol/, and his backers wouldn't be spending it all there.

Blogger Sam November 22, 2018 9:15 AM  

Automating the economy is good when resources will be redirected to more productive uses. Automating the economy is bad when resources will be redirected to strip mining the economy more efficiently. Since our elite hates us and never misses the opportunity to say so, we live in the latter category.

In the case of trucking, automating them is a bad idea- truckers don't just drive but also maintain the trucks and other responsibilities. Having it all under one hat makes responsibility and power aligned which makes it work efficiently- seperate it out and you'll find things rapidly become 'someone elses problem'.

Now if you automate everything you run into more 'fun' results- hackers and corporate executives get to be Carmen Sandiego. Command and control is the weak point- either everything is centralized and one person can steal the entire nations toilet paper for the lols or things are decentralized and it is a bitch and a half to change the routes (unlike the real world where you can just call truckers- the can be subverted with machines

Blogger John November 22, 2018 9:18 AM  

The fact that temporarily slowing, stopping, or at least regulating the transition to automation is good does not imply that automation should be resisted indefinitely.

The market-worshipers do not give a damn about the short-term social costs of automation. In fact, for THEM, said costs are the icing on the cake. One man's social cost is another man's profit.

Blogger FUBARwest November 22, 2018 9:21 AM  

"What is the factor that is making my argument fallacious?"

Ned Ludd was not in a country where 40% of the people were of a different nation. Technology was not around where foreigners could move into his country easily. The entire situation is completely different.

Blogger English Tom November 22, 2018 9:21 AM  

@Chris Mallory

Yes, people are blind to the fact that this is more than simply an economic problem. We are talking about a complete societal reorganisation that will affect everyone, and not necessarily for the better for millions of people.

Blogger Mark Stoval November 22, 2018 9:22 AM  

A lot of automation has been driven by minimum wage laws that force many outfits to pay more than the worker is worth, and hence the turn to expensive automation that is cheaper in the long run. This in turn fuels the automation industry with profits and so they keep looking to expand their markets.

Then we have the government telling business who they MUST hire or else they are discriminating bigots. Who would hire a SJW purple hair? And if one got through then just fire her fat ass as soon as possible. But that is not the way it works; you can get sued for mega bucks for "discrimination". Many have said, "never hire someone you can't fire", but that is not possible and we all know it.

Then there is the inflation problem that has made a one income family almost impossible. I work with a bunch of mothers who would much rather be a "stay at home mom" than work. But they feel they have no choice.

Someone said the middle class is doomed. No, really? A high IQ White Man with talent is not going to have a great life if the leftists have any say in that. He is especially frozen out of the enterprise by now.

The economy is not endangered by automation. It is endangered by stupid, left wing, globalist policies. The elites want you dead. Enslaved is good enough if not dead -- for now.

My friends, and my enemies, we are in deep trouble. The time for another revolution is now, but we may not have enough real men left.

Blogger Hammerli 280 November 22, 2018 9:24 AM  

This is a variant on the argument Dr. Jerry Pournelle put forth several years ago - that got me turned against unlimited free trade.

When you automate or export a job, what do the people who used to do it do for a living? Some of them can be put to work doing other work of equal pay. A handful can be retrained for higher-paying positions. But a significant number are either too old to profitably retrain, or not capable of more skilled tasks. They get shoved down-market. The factory worker who used to make a decent living now flips hamburgers to support a much lower standard of living.

There are things more important than a damned dollar bill! Although Dr. Pournelle pointed out that the costs are not nearly as high as people think...because the folks who got pushed out of the job market now want welfares. And idle men always get into trouble.

No. It's not much more expensive and a whole lot less trouble to keep them working for a living.

Quite aside from the minor fact that after 25 years working in unmanned aviation (including two ACAT-I or equivalent programs), I know the limits of the technology...and how hard it is to really make it work. And would not trust a self-driving car as far as I could throw it.

Blogger D E K November 22, 2018 9:26 AM  

Love to hear a rebuttal to stefan Molyneux's rebuttal from Vox. I liked Stefan's points but he did not mentioned the sunken costs of the driver licences and the changed environment where there are less and less jobs like these of the truckers for the unqualified.

Blogger John November 22, 2018 9:28 AM  

@61 Automating the economy is good when resources will be redirected to more productive uses. Automating the economy is bad when resources will be redirected to strip mining the economy more efficiently.

You can always make the case that resources will be used more productively. As Vox says, when rules of the game change, you have to change the way you play: you cannot resist automation forever because technology does play a significant role in war. The question is how much social destruction occurs during the process of automation.

Everything was so much easier back when we believed that individual capitalists could be trusted to manage the transition…

However, at least if you 1) have a nation-state and 2) autarky, automation is a lot easier to manage. Because that way foreigners don't get a political vote or economic vote in your country.

Blogger Lurker November 22, 2018 9:30 AM  

"The market-worshipers do not give a damn about the short-term social costs of..."

...offshoring, "free trade" etc...

That's why Tucker's reasonable approach is more thoughtful and less harmful. He advocates actually thinking about the consequences and trade-offs.

Blogger Dangeresque November 22, 2018 9:31 AM  

If the technology was ever feasible, it would need to be regulated anyway as it would then be a national security concern. If a hacker could find a way to take control of a certain type of truck and peg the accelerator on all of them at once, you'd have one of the biggest mass casualty events in history. I'd go so far as to say they shouldn't have any wireless connectivity of any kind on board just to make sure that would be impossible.

Blogger Lurker November 22, 2018 9:31 AM  

"The market-worshipers do not give a damn about the short-term social costs of..."

...offshoring, "free trade", immivasion etc...

Blogger Hammerli 280 November 22, 2018 9:34 AM  

I will add that one area of potential employment will be personal assistants. If we can get the regulatory overhead problems solved.

There aren't that many high-skill professionals. It takes both brainpower and tenacity to earn degrees in a field like Engineering. Companies used to provide a significant number of secretaries and executive assistants to handle the mundane administrative tasks...and let your high-pay professional do the work that only he CAN do, instead of wasting his $100/hour time on filling out a travel claim.

Today? If you're a professional, you get a voice mail system and are expected to handle three-quarters or more of the administrative tasks yourself. Wasteful of time...but it cuts overhead. In the short run. But in the long run, we probably need to bring back personal assistants of one sort or other.

Blogger English Tom November 22, 2018 9:35 AM  

@Resident Moron

We'll have to agree to disagree on how much automation/robotics will impact society and jobs. But absolutely agree, without a strong middle class, you don't have a society or civilisation.

Blogger Behemoth November 22, 2018 9:39 AM  

So then the issue is the foreigners, not the automation. The US is likely doomed anyway, for precisely that reason.

Blogger camcleat November 22, 2018 9:39 AM  

@65

" I work with a bunch of mothers who would much rather be a "stay at home mom" than work. But they feel they have no choice. "

Do they really have no choice, though, or do they just feel that way? Are they being hard in their objective analysis of what their family really needs?

I was once talking to a lady about homeschooling. She wanted to but her husband was skeptical about the financials. She told him point blank: "I'll gladly live in a single wide mobile home before I send my children to public school."

Sometimes, sacrifices are required. Forgetting that is the legacy of the Boomer's "give me NOW" attitude.

How many working-but-would-rather-stay-at-home Moms are willing to give up "lifestyle" and the social status of the right car, the right house, the right neighborhood, the right clothes, etc?

The "we need the two incomes" rationalization is awfully convenient.

Blogger OneWingedShark November 22, 2018 9:41 AM  


Rom 13:4 (Berean Study Bible)
For he is God’s servant for your good. But if you do wrong, be afraid, for he does not carry the sword in vain. He is God’s servant, an agent of retribution to the wrongdoer.

Blogger matveidaniilovich November 22, 2018 9:49 AM  

The people on the left side of the bell curve need jobs in a highly technical society as well. We can't just wash our hands of them.

Blogger English Tom November 22, 2018 9:54 AM  

@Dangeresque

Re: driverless trucks shouldn't have wifi.

The AI that will be running things needs connectivity to continuously monitor everything. Hence the introduction of 5G and the Internet of Things.

Blogger Nobody of Consequence November 22, 2018 9:56 AM  

No, the duty of the nation's SERVANTS is to do that which benefits ALL the People equally. Everything from tariffs to duties to embargoes that increase costs for all of us to benefit some of us are improper.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 10:00 AM  

@15

"So the real reason that there's so much unemployment is that companies cannot find funds to hire more people because the banksters are sucking them dry?"

That's a significant part of it.

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 10:00 AM  

Stefan is TECHNICALLY correct, and Tucker in the few seconds couldn't go deeply into it, but it depends on whether the market was made for man, or man and his dignity and labor is just another commodity on the market.

Ask Stefan how feminism, PUAs and MGTOW violate the NAP or his UPB. They don't. But civilization will crash and is crashing. If I trade with muslims and socialists and transfer wealth there instead of my libertarian neighbors so they go bankrupt? And it is reciprocated so I go bankrupt?

If we still had middle class blue collar factory jobs here, he would be correct. Stefan doesn't even bother to address the 10 Million "left of the bell curve" people who are now going to have nothing to do.

Mexicans and Chinese will work for less. Even H1-Bs displace the skilled. Women will be working (and not having kids and otherwise destroying civilization) - and Stefan knows that is a problem, but he avoids the choice between temporary shrinking liberty that is destroying civilization or a cold reboot. Tucker notes in the rural areas when men lose their middle class income, women keep theirs but with hypergamy have contempt for the men. Stefan has said as much.

Stefan wants his liberty over everything, but at this point in the real world that will result only in feudalism, oligarchy, or dictatorship. Just like he realized we needed Trump or everything would be lost but can't make the jump that we're still in critical condition.

Liberty can only thrive where there is a Christian Middle Class. And even then it must be fought for. That's Trump but also limits on more cultural and societal disruption until we are healthy again.

The Cuckservatives keep preaching liberty - for depraved sex, to extract wealth, for open borders. And each of these will destroy liberty. Stefan is realizing that culture is upstream of Liberty, but he needs to apply that everywhere.

If Stefan is for not limiting the trucking market, then why not open the borders? He specifically says he DOES NOT CARE about the societal and cultural effects of automation because a free market - no regulation - is more important. So why does he care so much about open borders which is just another way of making things cheaper even if it might have LESS effect on the culture than the trucking automation? Oh, the culture will change and we will go full socialist if there is a free market in cross border labor. So he wouldn't replace the American truck driver with a Mexican, but would with a Robot?

Blogger Garuna November 22, 2018 10:01 AM  

There's nothing organic about the constant shilling for him on /pol/

The fact that ANYONE is shilling for him on /pol/ is conclusive proof that he's paying for bots.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 10:05 AM  

@16

" The truckers are happy with their wages as far as I know. That's the rule I'd apply to prevent the slippery slope argument. "

A lot of truckers are being slowly bled to death. Very slowly, but the bleeding never stops. Basically, shippers refuse to pay enough to cover fuel + maintenance + enough for the drivers to live on. And the truckers are afraid to go on strike because they don't have any cushion for being out of work.

This is the one time where I would really like to see the Teamsters go on strike, as long as they don't get violent (the shortage of rigs on the road will goose up shipping rates, which the Teamsters can then still use as a negotiating tool). And right now would be the perfect time to do so -- when every retailer, consumer-goods manufacturer, and warehouser would want a strike settled within hours, so as to blunt any impact on Christmas buying.

Blogger Doktor Jeep November 22, 2018 10:14 AM  

Of many things to be thankful for today, this is one of them. That this subject is out finally, and coming out in the right way. It's also the beginning of the end for "muh capitalism" - the fake rights version of capitalism whereby we support and promote it blindly while the usurists bludgeon us to death with it.
And this, over driverless trucks, with Tucker coming out "for humans". This is very Tolkienesque. Lost in the Weinstein-funded big screen versions of LOTR was Tolkien's concept of and disdain for "the machine". he was more clear about it in his writing and this is why I can vaguely recall some writers referring to Tolkien as a "conservative anarchist".
It's always been a stain on anarcho-capitalists and libertarians that "muh capitalism", even when all it did was benefit everybody but conservatives and libertarians, was a cornerstone of their ideals. It's one of the reasons why I left the fold years ago.
On a side note: notice how there are no right-wing billionaires with money to throw at our causes? That's telling us everything we need to know.
INB4 "Koch Brothers". Anybody bringing them up as examples are either too new to the game or a part of the problem.
So yes, the "money saved from having self driving trucks" is NOT going to do a damned thing "going elsewhere" or "all those truckers are going to suddenly become computer programmers and electronics technicians". Yes the diesel mechanics will still have jobs, so will the people getting paid 8 dollars and hour to load the trucks.
So I'm thankful. It's time we started a pro-human movement where we decide that we don't just replace people for "THE BOTTOM LINNNNNNE!!!!". It's just more money in the pockets of left wing billionaries and leftist-run corporations who will use the money to fund more leftist politicians and gun control. And we are capable of doing this smartly too. Unlike the lobertarians who were blindly and religiously "muh capitalism!" in the way boomers are religiously and blindly "muh diversity!", we can recognize where automation is necessary in regards to preventing workplace injuries due to repetitive stress - I have personally worked on some projects like this myself - and reducing health hazards like the initial attempt to use robots at Chernobyl that failed thanks to 80s technology (so they had to use 3000 or more Russian soldiers for 2 minutes one time - oh well).
Automation will also be good to stick it to leftists in some cases: wherever they manage to coerce and weaponize democracy to get 15 dollar minimum wage laws passed. The left has their own version of "muh capitalism" it seems - much like "Climate change" is their own version of end times prophecy - but "muh living wage" is actually "more union dues into the union coffers" but of course the left being what they are, don't mind unions using the money to push more leftism. So using automation to stick it to them is also fair play. Basically fighting automation to keep money out of the hands of their capitalists and pushing it to keep it out of the hands of their unions is all fair in war. And before "muh double standards!" think first and try to recall if the left ever cared about double standards or were bothered when someone mewls about them having any.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 22, 2018 10:14 AM  

The people on the left side of the bell curve need jobs in a highly technical society as well. We can't just wash our hands of them.

I was listening to a podcast on some fairly technical computer topics that strayed into economics and policy a bit. On the issue of some people not being able to keep up with new technology, one of them said, "I'm fine with leaving them behind." The casualness with which he said it made my skin crawl. He didn't even try to tell a happy story about rising tides lifting all boats and new tech improving opportunities for everyone. Just, [shrug], don't care. He's ready to wash his hands of them, and he's not alone.

Maybe technology will eventually eliminate all low-IQ jobs. If so, we'll have a battle between the Christians and nationalists who want to find a way their neighbors can stay productive and fed, and the technocrats who just want them out of the way. In the meantime, there's nothing wrong with putting some brakes on it.

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 10:16 AM  

So Stefan says you need two parent families with stay at home Moms and even homeschooling to save society, but that means the men have to be able to support the family on a single income - which we had with blue collar jobs for the left half of the bell curve.

Stefan says the market must be allowed to destroy blue collar - and white collar middle class jobs. And women must have their "equal rights" and careers and such, and instead of Husbands and Fathers, we have MGTOW and single mothers or even others abandoning their children to daycare and the schools.

So the advocate of peaceful parenting so we can have a libertarian society is at war with the infrastructure that is required to have peaceful parenting.

Liberty must be fought for and earned and saved before it is consumed by something like a mass societal displacement from technology.

Stefan wants to consume the liberty by letting it destroy good jobs (and lots of truckers have the traditional family), which will result in less liberty in the long run. Who is supposed to be advocating for low (long) time preference?

I don't know if it a 4th pillar of western Civilization, or an effect of the other three, but a healthy middle class is also necessary, even during the middle ages with the different political structure, there was a "middle class". Colonial America was mostly "middle class".

The middle class could do charity through churches. When you have only rich and poor you will have government and the welfare state. The middle class have to balance their democratic vote - they don't want high taxes, and don't need many services. They keep the equilibrium. Thats why the Democrats went along to destroy it and import poor people - they will all vote socialist.

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 10:19 AM  

AI should be mature enough now to crate an Aristotle robot that would replace Stefan because it would be cheaper and do things much better.

Blogger Jeff aka Orville November 22, 2018 10:20 AM  

One person hinted at it above, but men need a sustainable and sustaining livelihood. It's damaging to a man personally and to society as a whole to not have that, so I would go with slowing the introduction of automation with that goal in mind. A free market doesn't matter if you destroy your customer base. A say this as a huge fan of robotics who enjoys seeing the latest vids such as brick-laying robots and the Japanese bot that can hang drywall.

I also agree with @66 that the control/intelligence function of robotics is not keeping up with their mechanical abilities.

Blogger OGRE November 22, 2018 10:25 AM  

@53 FUBARwest

It's strange to see Stefan agree with Shapiro here.

No, its not. At all. Molyneux is more devoted to the religion of free markets and its Benevolent Invisible Hand than Shapiro is to Judaism. And he offers his utterly predictable and simple-minded arguments for it in his typical insufferably patronizing manner.

Blogger Jeff aka Orville November 22, 2018 10:27 AM  

Regarding the robotics revolution, it is far more likely that these robots will be human driven drones from a remote location rather than fully automated. Your construction worker of the future may suit up and drive a construction bot from the air-conditioned office of the contractor.

Blogger John November 22, 2018 10:27 AM  

@81 Stefan is TECHNICALLY correct, and Tucker in the few seconds couldn't go deeply into it, but it depends on whether the market was made for man

In other words, Stefan is technically INCORRECT, because the the market WAS made for man. That is, the market was made for men…the family…and the nation. Destroying men, families, and nations is very lucrative for supernationals.

@86 I don't know if it a 4th pillar of western Civilization, or an effect of the other three, but a healthy middle class is also necessary

Nation-state + autarky = middle class.

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 10:28 AM  

We've replaced lifetime jobs with pensions so you now have to jump every few years, and manage your 401k since interest rates are near zero (4% should be the norm), and take inflation into account (no gold standard), and the market goes into a bubble then crashes - oh, and your home too. And we expect the left half of the bell curve to handle this?

Before, you could just keep your money in a bank, maybe in CDs and it would grow, and if you stayed at your job you would get a pension and would be relatively well off when you retired just by being prudent.

Blogger cecilhenry November 22, 2018 10:32 AM  

@86

Yup.

Stefan repeatedly, and in this case within 5 minutes of his video, demands people can and should go (and be allowed to go) where ever the economic opportunities are. Anywhere, regardless of who or what might be at that 'anywhere'. (Except, I suspect, his house).


Meanwhile he decries the migrant crisis (which is an agenda, not a crisis) and the destructive effects of feminism on family and society in the same lecture.

He does this repeatedly, never quite getting that White Genocide is not an accident, but a whole agenda.

This article on the 2 types of globalists is valuable. Stefan keeps dipping a toe in both camps, only to realize the temperatures not quite right.


Stefan keeps pushing the Civ Nat loop endlessly and implicitly, and in the end that anti-nationalist to the core.


Two kinds of globaliser

https://ozconservative.blogspot.com/2018/11/two-kinds-of-globaliser_19.html

Blogger Bobiojimbo November 22, 2018 10:32 AM  

Is there more of Tucker like this s? Are these his actually held beliefs? I ask because we may have found our 2024 candidate.

Blogger VFM Bear November 22, 2018 10:35 AM  

I don't ever recall having watched lil ben before. I don't believe I ever will again, I had to force myself to watch barely 10 minutes even with Tucker doing most of the talking.

How could he be a talking head with a voice like that? Or on TV with a face that is the Platonic ideal of a punchable face?

I didn't think I could think much less of cuckservatives, but the fact that they listen to this guy makes me wonder if they're also a bunch of closeted fags.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 10:38 AM  

@29

"How about a system requiring a certain percentage of human input into the final revenue generating product of any corporate entity.
And a limit on the percent of total revenue that can be paid out of the profits of a government sanctioned corporation to employees and shareholders."

I think the easiest to get through Congress would be a law requiring the following for any corporation (including NGOs)

A maximum 100:1 difference in effective compensation for hour worked, between the highest and lowest paid employee, and that ALL contractors are to be considered employees for such purposes. None of this -- "we don't maintain our elevators -- we contract Otis elevator to do that for us." so that they can't claim that everyone other than the corporate officers and a few senior managers are "not employees"

As this should be a fundamental structure of society for the long term, it should be a Constitutional Amendment. Unfortunately, there's no way to do such a thing by Voter Initiative :-(.

Perhaps we could use an amendment allowing Amendments to the Constitution by Voter Initiative ... say, with a 75% (3:1) super-majority vote to pass. Along with the Senate being returned to the hands of the States' legislatures.

Blogger Tars Tarkas November 22, 2018 10:40 AM  

Ben Shapiro has a face for radio and a voice for writing. His style of speaking is that of a Chihuahua. There is literally not a single thing about Ben Shapiro that would justify him having a radio or TV show. He doesn't have a single redeeming quality. The only thing that can explain it is that wealthy Jews want Ben Shapiro to be popular.

Blogger maniacprovost November 22, 2018 10:41 AM  

the choice between temporary shrinking liberty that is destroying civilization or a cold reboot

This is the false dichotomy that the satanic purveyors of communism, and Alt-Retards (but I repeat myself) use to dupe the well-meaning.

There are 50 Billion little slaveries and infringements on our liberty- unethical, immoral outrages against human dignity- that we could fix and take one step closer to saving Western Civilization. And yet somehow the solution is to do what the socialists want because in this one edge case we think totalitarianism will have a net benefit.

And in theory, yes, the world is inefficient and in many cases I'll means can yield good ends.

But they won't. It is utterly impossible to implement, for example, a ban on self driving trucks in such a way that it will actually help blue collar Americans. It will 100% of the time be used totbenefit giant corporations and special interests while making the lot of truckers worse. IF you had the power to get it done right, you would be a dictator, and you would be much better served to do something positive like securing the border instead.

There are SO MANY ethical, good things that could help Americans, that anyone who promotes leftist (unethical and poorly thought out) solutions is suspect.

Blogger Mr. Deficient November 22, 2018 10:41 AM  

He had Stephen Harper (last 'conservative' prime minister of Canada) and even he out did Shapiro in terms of nationalist and right wing chops. It's scary how liberal Shapiro really is when hes put side by side people like Carlson and Harper.

Blogger maniacprovost November 22, 2018 10:44 AM  

Caveat, it is not unethical for the owner/operator of the roads, the government, to ban automated trucks from its roads.

Blogger Silent Draco November 22, 2018 10:46 AM  

Hammerli, the automation cuts overhead, until someone steps back and sees where support contracts, training, new equipment, etc. get charged

I had a budget analyst try to justify why the highly paid engineering staff had to do their forms for them, instead of taking a half-page email on how to allot funds received from the customer. I ticked off her and her boss when I calculated that any time someone just touched the automated program, the cost was $25. Having supervisors sign or approve? $50-100 a pop. Overhead got pushed up by clerks not wanting to do their jobs.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 10:46 AM  

@44

"So should the railroads be broken up to produce more demand for trucking and hence truck drivers? "

We could forcibly shift more long-distance shipping to railroads vi piggy-back or intermodal transfer points using containerization, pay truckers to sit around and do nothing, and still be better off.

Screwed up, but true.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 10:51 AM  

@52

"For some reason they think all the blue collar white guys put out of work by automation will turn into snowflakes and soyboys.
My suggestion that a couple million unemployed truck drivers, longshoremen, and other rough necks will lead to heads on pikes outside gated communities was brushed off with "They are snowflakes and we have guns. Conservative workers won't support this." "

Better reply: Yoo-hoo, earth to you, it's the guys who own the guns AND USE THEM TO PUT FOOD ON THE TABLE who you are calously, and deliberately pissing off!

Blogger Unknown November 22, 2018 10:52 AM  

If locusts could speak, they would argue in one voice for globalism and extractive economics.

And condemn anyone who opposes the same as a dangerous "anti-locust-ist."

In short, they would sound like Ben Shapiro.

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 11:00 AM  

It goes back to something I said a long time ago. Either the free market is most important, or moral principles, be them from the bible, NAP, or UDP are. Stefan can say I should be able to buy any service I want. What about an assassin? Well, that violates any moral regarding life. But what about prositutes (especially if I'm married)?

The free market is completely AMORAL. So Stefan technically shifts to a libertine, morality free paradigm (the UPB is merely another thing on the market, and you can "buy" either socialism or capitalism), but will in other contexts say that morality is objective.

Stefan also has noted Facebook, Twitter, YouTube have created sunk costs inviting people to publish there so bans technically aren't "free market", it is a bait and switch, or other fraud.

That is true of trucking. Even now, the crony tech is getting laws passed to give self-driving vehicles a pass on regulations. I will also note it won't work with long haul trucking. Meatspace is not cyberspace. But even if it did, ignoring existing regulations and incentives is theft.

Uber works only because it can pay below minimum wage, ignore all the medallion monopolies (which might be bad, but Uber is breaking the law, not changing it), the regulations for the cars and the drivers, and not pay benefits for their "independent contractors". And it isn't Ghandi like civil disobedience, just more wealth extraction.

So like the social media platforms, or cabs, there are regulatory sunk costs to trucking.

And you wouldn't like what a general trucking strike (see France) would do.

Blogger Unknown November 22, 2018 11:03 AM  

Tars Tarkusz wrote:There is literally not a single thing about Ben Shapiro that would justify him having a radio or TV show. He doesn't have a single redeeming quality. The only thing that can explain it is that wealthy Jews want Ben Shapiro to be popular.

Explain why Christians worship the ground he walks on:
spectator.us/ben-shapiro

Our people are prone to follow Jewish gurus. "He's stupid smart, way smarter than me!" gulped one lemming in the linked article. If Shapiro advocated their destruction, these goobers would eagerly agree. In fact, he does and they do.

Blogger Nate73 November 22, 2018 11:07 AM  

I disagree with Tucker but I was pleasantly surprised to hear his disagreement with Shapiro. Very interesting, I really like this guy, seems like an independent thinker.

Blogger cloom November 22, 2018 11:07 AM  

The central banks have to let the prices drop as the automation increases productivity instead of insisting on 2% annual inflation. A low income could then buy everything. Also people have to work less and let other people work, if they have the fruit of declining prices to be allowed to work less. Then income is distributed from labour not indolence. The get-super-rich wrong desire has been damaging. If they had prayer they could escape it.

Welfare and guaranteed minimum income and the 2% inflation, from interest rates set too low, and deficit spending, has been a terrible idea because it increased returns on capital to the finance sector, which is being empowered more, and which also used leverage via declining interest rates to suck multiples of the base rate of return on capital.

If interest rates were always higher and prices declining from automation then the automation would not give a big profit to capital, and also leverage to multiply and concentrate the capital would not be possible since that is because interest is less than the equity annual profit rate right now.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 11:08 AM  

@61

"In the case of trucking, automating them is a bad idea- truckers don't just drive but also maintain the trucks and other responsibilities. Having it all under one hat makes responsibility and power aligned which makes it work efficiently- seperate it out and you'll find things rapidly become 'someone else's problem'."

Any company which buys into automated trucks is going to get exactly what it deserves -- trucks manipulated into stopping(*) which will then, at a minimum, be relieved of their cargo, if not outright hijacked, or even stripped right in the middle of the road.



(*) e.g. empty baby stroller pushed in front of a car ploy to stop a motorist so as to attack the car's occupants even works against vehicles with a live driver (especially if the driver is a woman).

Blogger Ominous Cowherd November 22, 2018 11:08 AM  

Rory wrote:It is one of those articles of faith, that something will come along to replace, say, trucking. The driving will go away, but jobs will come along to replace them (e.g. building/coding/repairing the trucks). But what's always troubled me about that line of reasoning is that there's a reason one automated the job in the first place: to reduce labour costs. You buy a tractor because you need fewer men tilling the field (or you can keep the same number employed, but their bargaining position is reduced, meaning lower wages).

Rory, reducing labor costs is the least of it. If drivers could retrain as AI programmers, it would all work out in the end. Unfortunately, those high school educated men who drive trucks aren't underemployed programmers in waiting; they do it because they aren't capable of more abstract work. Driverless trucks leave them useless, and workless.

If the advances left every one more productive, it would all work out as the libertardians imagine. They don't, and it doesn't.

Blogger Unknown November 22, 2018 11:11 AM  

"Do what thou wilt is the whole of the law, and The Market will take care of the rest."

Some people say there is no difference between Libertarianism and Satanism. They are clearly wrong. Libertarianism is a subset of Satanism.

Anonymous Anonymous November 22, 2018 11:12 AM  

Behemoth wrote:But there is no reason to think its any more valid an argument this time than it was the last time? What are the circumstances of this time and space that you say make this argument correct at this time but not when Ned Ludd was smashing Stocking Frames? Its not been correct at any time before, why is it correct now?

What is the factor that is making my argument fallacious?


I’ll take a swing at that. Stalling us out at (or severely slowing down the growth of) the standard of living that existed then would have been bad. Stalling us out at (or severely slowing down the growth of) our current standard of living is not so bad.

Of course there’s much more that could be said about all this. But that’s my initial take on it.

Blogger pyrrhus November 22, 2018 11:14 AM  

Autonomous vehicles are a product of hand waving by IYI's who know nothing about science, just as was Musk's purported Mars colony..It's about control and fleecing the population. I will absolutely predict that we will never have autonomous vehicles on the open road without massive Government subsidies, including liability protection for the manufacturers.
"Free market" my eye...

Blogger Matt Robison November 22, 2018 11:18 AM  

Just teach all the out of work truck drivers to program JavaScript. Problem solved!

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 11:18 AM  

Also Trucking is ALREADY heavily regulated. Why is requring a CDL, sometimes with endorsements like hazmat, drug testing, inspections, electronic data logging (to make sure you don't drive an extra hour since the average might make you sleepy), inspectons and maintenance etc.

Automation is a RESPONSE to this regulation, not unlike Uber breaks the law so works. Because Truckers are regulated - and they are mostly good moral people who obey - they are more expensive, so automation is not more effecient, it is regulatory arbitrage. How about we remove ALL regulation from trucking TODAY and see what happens? It is hypocritical to be bothered by one more ban on one more thing on a mountain high stack.

As to WW2, we could instantly recover that job boom. Nuke central Europe, Japan, and China so all their manufacturing and factories would be destoryed. That would then mean we wouldn't need tariffs.

And Stefan talks about how IQ is genetic and mostly immutable, and government schools are bad, but here he is on both side. Better schools to train the left half of the bell curve that can't help stealing or other irresponsible behavior and high time preference because of their low IQ - to do what exactly? If IQ is mutable, then lets do it. If it isn't, then the schools won't work.

And we have a welfare state democracy. What will these 10,000 newly unemployable people do?

And insurance? Another regulated crony area. Waymo will lobby the government to exempt them from insurance requirements or declare the trucks safe by fiat, even if they are far worse than humans. Like banks were forced to write loans to uncreditworthy borrowers during the housing bubble. In what reality does Stefan exist where he expects this to be immune from corruption. Again, Uber breaks the law and maybe the laws are bad, but do we want to go full lawlessness? It will be anarchy but not liberty.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 11:19 AM  

@65

"A lot of automation has been driven by minimum wage laws that force many outfits to pay more than the worker is worth, and hence the turn to expensive automation that is cheaper in the long run. This in turn fuels the automation industry with profits and so they keep looking to expand their markets.

----

Then there is the inflation problem that has made a one income family almost impossible. I work with a bunch of mothers who would much rather be a "stay at home mom" than work. But they feel they have no choice."

I used to believe the argument in paragraph 1, but that is DISPROVEN by the observation in the latter paragraph.

How is it the companies used to be able to survive paying even janitors enough money to buy a house and raise a family, and a McDonald's at the LOW end of the customers/hour rate brings in over $1000/hour, with no more than a crew of 4 people.. and yet somehow a $20,000/year overworked assistant manager with 3 minimum wage people (1 cashier + 2 in the kitchen) somehow can't afford to pay over minimum wage? IF the store owner says, "but my franchise fees", well then, that shows you right where the employees' share of the earnings is going to -- franchise fees. Which is to say, Wall Street's overwhelming investment in McD stock.

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 11:21 AM  

I have $1000 to buy a computer, but now that driverless truck have started, it only costs $950. But I'm a truck driver so can no longer afford even $200 for a computer that I could have afforded even at $1200 when I was working.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 11:24 AM  

@66

"Quite aside from the minor fact that after 25 years working in unmanned aviation (including two ACAT-I or equivalent programs), I know the limits of the technology...and how hard it is to really make it work. And would not trust a self-driving car as far as I could throw it. "

The "self-driving car" future is being driven by two things:

1) Baby boomers afraid of the day when their vision will be too poor to drive
2) The people financing this ALSO want to keep young SMART white men busy spending all of their mental resources on a superflous problem which will NEVER provide a path to even the option of going into business for themselves.

Blogger Lurker November 22, 2018 11:27 AM  

Anyhow its not something to worry about long haul truck driving has ALOT of variables and only could work if the vehicles had their own private roads exclusively for automated vehicles with near zero variables like, idiots on the roads, relatively straight roads leading to easy to access loading docks, overpasses always the correct height, roads not blocked by debris and maintained, plowed for snow etc..
, did I say roads clear of idiots? As it is there is no such environment ask any truck driver.

You get the point, basically a giant conveyor belt system between suppliers and distributors. With the current road infrastructure fuggedabout DUMBass satanic "elites" unless they want to kill people which is what it would do without VERY controlled roads and infrastructure similar to trains. Even trains get into big accidents in way more controlled conditions.

Blogger Unknown November 22, 2018 11:28 AM  

Ominous Cowherd wrote:Unfortunately, those high school educated men who drive trucks aren't underemployed programmers in waiting; they do it because they aren't capable of more abstract work.

It's hard for high-IQ people to wrap their heads around this. In their minds, anyone can learn anything. They can do so, so they project that everyone can do so. The "blank slate" is their deepest unquestioned assumption. More training, more education, better motivation, etc. is their proposed solution to every problem.

Army recruiters during World War One were tasked with determining the basic competence of draftees. One thing these recruiters learned was that there are two categories of incompetents. The first included people who did not know how to read a map. Call these the ignorant. The second category was people who *could not be taught to read a map*. The ineducable. The latter category is unknown to high-IQ people; they just can't stop believing that anyone can learn any material if properly trained and motivated. Even remunerative types of programming or nuclear physics. Such are the clueless ideologues designing educational programs like Common Core. "Anyone can do anything!" No, Jiminy Cricket, they can't.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 11:29 AM  

@70

" If a hacker could find a way to take control of a certain type of truck and peg the accelerator on all of them at once, you'd have one of the biggest mass casualty events in history. I'd go so far as to say they shouldn't have any wireless connectivity of any kind on board just to make sure that would be impossible."

Researchers have already demonstrated the ability to hijack a normally-driven Jeep equipped with wifi-for-passengers while said Jeep is in motion on a test-track.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 11:32 AM  

@72


"
Today? If you're a professional, you get a voice mail system and are expected to handle three-quarters or more of the administrative tasks yourself. Wasteful of time...but it cuts overhead. In the short run. But in the long run, we probably need to bring back personal assistants of one sort or other."

And voice mail is the worse, yet it's put in place because the people at the top value THEIR time so much, that they don't stop to consider that sending out mass-voice mails so that THEY can save time costs the entire rest of the company significant amounts of time listening to VM's which you can't sort until you've heard the entire damned message, compared to 5 seconds skimming an email to see if it applies to you or not.

Blogger Lurker November 22, 2018 11:36 AM  

I've worked closely with many truck drivers and trucking companies. Truck drivers get into so many hairy situations OTR there isn't enough memory/databases in the world to store them all in let alone react to them in real-time. This is just dumBASS elites bloviating about shit they don't know anything about as usual.

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 11:39 AM  

Stefan is using the isolation fallacy to which some libertarians hold. Our society and culture has an existing mixed welfare capialist structure.

Milton Friedman noted you can have EITHER open borders OR a welfare state. Stefan's argument is parallel to those who argue because open borders is free market and increases liberty, we should do that without worrying about ending the welfare state first. So what if the Illegal Aliens use the ER for health care, burden other social programs, etc., you get cheaper stuff because of the law breaking and don't ask why your taxes keep going up and you have shit on your streets.

I noted trucking is already heavily regulated, but note how Stefan doesn't say we should remove all regulations on human driven trucks or their drivers. No! Keep that crushing regulatory burden in place, but exempt robot trucks. And there will be no cronyism in robot truck regulation?

Again, Stefan is the one who can't see the unseen. A limit on regulatory arbitrage to limit automation is what he sees. What he doesn't see is a destroyed middle class (those horrible people, they should just move or die, maybe we need more opioids so more of them will end up dead, though they are the moral, hard working people who value liberty).

You will end up with Venezuela not because of socialism as such, but because you destroy the middle class that votes to create wealth, minimize taxes and regulation, and avoid wealth extraction by large corporations.

Should I care if we end up with impoverished Socialist tyranny because the socialists destory the middle class or the "capitalists" destroy the middle class?

Tucker gets that if you want freedom, you need a healthy (and at least culturally Christian) middle class.

Shapiro and Stefan would sacrifice the natural libertarians on the altar of liberty.

Blogger Unknown November 22, 2018 11:40 AM  

camcleat wrote:How many working-but-would-rather-stay-at-home Moms are willing to give up "lifestyle" and the social status of the right car, the right house, the right neighborhood,

The wrong neighborhood can be very wrong. As in, deadly. One thing that keeps the debt slaves from screwing off is the thought of raising their kids in a ghetto war zone. The elites have designed society in a very clever way for themselves. Why do you think they push hardest for Section 8 in lily white areas?

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 11:41 AM  

@90

"Regarding the robotics revolution, it is far more likely that these robots will be human driven drones from a remote location rather than fully automated. Your construction worker of the future may suit up and drive a construction bot from the air-conditioned office of the contractor."

Not very well likely. That would cost the builder even MORE than just paying the construction guy to pick up pieces of wood, measure and cut them, and pound nails.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 11:46 AM  

@92

"
Before, you could just keep your money in a bank, maybe in CDs and it would grow, and if you stayed at your job you would get a pension and would be relatively well off when you retired just by being prudent."

I remember about 10-15 years ago, my dad (born in the early 1940's) said I should get out of contract IT jobs, and "get a stable job with a pension."

I asked him, "where are these jobs that pay enough to live on, buy a house, afford a family, that also are permanent, and with a pension for someone my age? The only positions I know of which satisfy that are for senior management only. I can either seek permanent employment, at a low wage, or I can do contract work, and get paid 3x as much. But regardless of what I do, we've already seen for the last 20 years, that in most companies, when someone starts to get 3/4 of the way to being eligible for a pension, suddenly their job disappears and they get permanently laid off."

He had no answer.

Blogger Lance E November 22, 2018 11:56 AM  

Stefan actually made a ton of logical errors in his very long rebuttal. For example, he spent several minutes on a "tu quoque" argument, saying "well, Tucker has moved a lot, so how dare he suggest that other people shouldn't be allowed to move!" - completely ignoring the main points that (a) this doesn't scale and (b) many people don't want to uproot their families and move. Of course, a logical fallacy doesn't prove he's wrong, but such sloppy reasoning is pretty galling for a guy who sounds off about "reason and evidence" every 5 minutes.

He totally butchered the point about the shift from agrarian to industrial; just because we survived the change as a society, doesn't mean the transition was managed well. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, labor force participation has never recovered to the level it would have been at during agrarian times, had we actually measured it back then. As with all free-trade ideologues, he completely ignores the externalities: how many people were on the dole during the agrarian economy? How many people, and entire communities, who probably would have been employed in agriculture or domestic service 150 years ago, are still unemployed today?

His points about the depression were laughable, chalking it up mainly to "authoritarian government", as though every authoritarian would govern like FDR; while I think I might have heard the phrase "money supply" in there somewhere, he brushed over it in about 2 seconds. And of course, he didn't bother to mention the long period of free trade leading UP to the depression.

I think we're seeing a real weak spot of Stefan's. As the nationalist right starts to gain more relevance in the public eye, the libertarians and ancaps who cut their teeth by critiquing leftists are going to find that they lack the intellectual tools to debate the nationalist/reactionary/alt-right.

In particular, while Stefan is extremely well-versed in libertarian philosophy and early enlightenment thought, such as Locke, he either hasn't read or hasn't understood the late Austrian thinkers such as Hoppe and Kuehnelt-Leddihn, and if he's ever spent even a nanosecond reading pre-enlightenment literature, it doesn't show in any of his videos. Ironically, he himself points out that leftists will try to trap you in a "fascism vs. communism" dichotomy, yet cannot admit that strong right-wing governments used to be common and are historically the most effective at preserving personal freedoms.

I still like Stefan, of course, but he is what he is: a paleoliberal. The old liberal aristocrats were free-trade anti-nationalists and anti-statists who also happened to be pro-family, mildly race-realist and opposed to women's suffrage. He's been excellent at defense, and I've learned a lot from him about reframing rhetoric and responding to dishonest debate tactics, but neither he nor any other enlightenment thinker is going to lead us to ultimate victory against the left.

Blogger Silent Draco November 22, 2018 12:02 PM  

camcleat, the second income moms will squawk and immediately change the subject as soon as simple math enters the discussion:

Wow, you are paid about how much much?

Subtract:
SS, Medicare
All the taxes
Health care or other deducts
IRA/ Keough if you have a working brain

Subtract
Car insurance for your car
Car payments for the land cruiser
Gas, maintenance
Child care
'Enrichment' expenses
All those lattes or candy coffee
Yoga or other stress reducer
Carry-out or fast food meals, ALL of them
The expensive cell phone plan
Cell phone costs for everyone
Electronic toys

This is the what you're contributing, if the number is more than zero.

If it's less than zero, this is what you cost your husband in terms of putting up with a difficult job. Thos is what you cost your children's future.

Now, divide by the hours you're on the employer clock.

This is your hourly rate.

Feel good about yourself now? Feel ... mindful?

Math class sure is hard, when it's real money.

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 12:09 PM  

@119 Scott Adams proposed Detroit (yes, the bankrupt corrupt crony town) build special lanes for self driving vehicles.

Another reason self-driving trucks won't work is because TODAY you can ship stuff a lot faster and cheaper over RAILROADS. Almost every rural interstate has a set of tracks running nearby and parallel, and there are no exits, trains always have the right of way, they require a tiny fraction of the fuel. But they are also heavily regulated. They also don't need chains in ice and snow conditions and can go non-stop.

So the benefits of trains for long hauls is better than a robot truck caravan. But there isn't a shift to railroads. I don't know all the answers, but if you can't begin to answer that, you can't know anything about a robotruck v.s. human driver.

Where's the flying car I was promised would be here when I was growing up?

Imagine robo hazmat trucks... GPS is so easy to spoof and they aren't going to have 5G in the rural parts.

Blogger camcleat November 22, 2018 12:16 PM  

@125:

"The wrong neighborhood can be very wrong. As in, deadly. "

True. There is, however, a difference between a truly wrong neighborhood and what is, for status reasons only, deemed the "right" one.

For example, in my town, there are some nice places to live in the 100-200 k home range. Still a lot in my opinion, but I remember when a nice house was 50k.

But, at my wife's work, whenever they interview someone new and a real estate agent takes the prospective employee out to show neighborhoods, they are ONLY shown the 400+k 'hoods.

The peer pressure to live beyond means is very destructive in general, especially when it drives women to work outside the home in those cases where real "need" to do so does not exist.

Blogger camcleat November 22, 2018 12:19 PM  

129:

"The wrong neighborhood can be very wrong. As in, deadly. "

Agreed.

I recall a few years ago someone did an analysis and showed that the second wage earner in the family had to make about $80,000 per year to reach the break-even point.

How many are doing so, especially at the lower-middle to lower class?

Certainly not here, where the average income is about $30k per year, and that's artificially high due to a large number of doctors and lawyers per capita.

Blogger Matt November 22, 2018 12:20 PM  

I hadnt paid him much attention before 2016, but I am liking Tucker Carlson more and more.

Blogger camcleat November 22, 2018 12:20 PM  

@132:

Oops. Quoted the wrong post.

Quote was supposed to be:

"the second income moms will squawk and immediately change the subject as soon as simple math enters the discussion:

Wow, you are paid about how much much?"

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 12:24 PM  

If we are going to be a free country everyone has to work hard and save, so be a good person.

But I'm going to keep destroying the jobs you are working at, and confiscating your savings through taxes, inflation, or some wall street shell game in the name of free markets.

If this is the Art of the Argument, Stefan appears to be trying to convince the Deplorables to be socialist.

Like opening immigration (which I don't support for other reasons), we can't even begin to talk about it until we dismantle the welfare state (or it crashes).

We still have public policies destroying the middle class - feminism particularly divorce, outsourcing, trade with evil countries (regulatory arbitrage), Tyrannically low interest rates for savings accounts, huge corporate and federal debt.

But before fixing any of these, you want to displace ten million lower middle class blue collar workers into the maw where their alternatives are welfare or death. (Or retrain to some other job that will be eliminated - replace the waiter with a kiosk or robot, as well as the cook).

It is as if Stefan instead of peaceful parenting suggested torturing children from the youngest age to coerce them to be libertarians and every time they suggested a hint of socialism they would be spanked and hard. It is easy to argue for creative destruction when you benefit from the creation and others are hurt by the destruction.

Blogger Bogey November 22, 2018 12:26 PM  

God bless Tucker, he actually has a soul.

Blogger Dos Voltz November 22, 2018 12:44 PM  

"The duty of the nation's leaders is to strive to benefit the actual nation, not "the economy", not the corporations, and certainly not foreigners who happen to be in possession of paperwork that permits them to live among the nationals."

Thanks for that, Vox. Maybe when we get around to calling for a constitutional convention we can insert this gem somewhere. Then run all the libertarians out of town on a rail.

And then carve this into stone to let 'em know we don't want them to ever return.

Libertarianism is just Bolshevism without the camps. They let "the markets" turn the surrounding communities (where us proles live) into hellholes just slightly more tolerable than the gulag.

Blogger Maureen November 22, 2018 12:45 PM  

OT but has there ever been anyone with a face as eminently punchable as Ben Shapiro? I can’t even hear what he’s saying because all I can think about is how bad I want to slap the shit out of him.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 12:47 PM  

@130

"Scott Adams proposed Detroit (yes, the bankrupt corrupt crony town) build special lanes for self driving vehicles."

As if the technology is advanced enough to swerve around Detroit's millions of pot-holes.

Blogger Servant of the Chief November 22, 2018 12:47 PM  

Tucker's utter lack of hesitation in opposing the maximisation of profits int he interests of his people is admirable. Incredibly admirable. I wish more men in power were like him in this regard.

Blogger Lurker November 22, 2018 12:50 PM  

"So the benefits of trains for long hauls is better than a robot truck caravan. But there isn't a shift to railroads. I don't know all the answers, but if you can't begin to answer that, you can't know anything about a robotruck v.s. human driver."

The automated driving especially for rigs is just a jobs program for alot of lefTARDS. Being arrogant/retarded they have no idea what's involved and would/have already just get people killed. Truck drivers aren't some components you can just swap out but hey if you're arrogant and don't know any that's no surprise you would think like that. The road infrastructure isn't like the movie Tron, city roads are a chaotic mess. You would literally have to build out so much expensive infrastructure there is no point. Trains are way more logical and most of the infrastructure is already in place a lot of it being built a long time ago. LefTARDS and their so-called "elite" overlords are retarded even truck drivers are laughing at that shit...

https://www.truckingtruth.com/truckers-forum/Topic-19946/Page-1/automated-driverless-trucks

Blogger Lurker November 22, 2018 12:52 PM  

https://www.truckingtruth.com/news/Article-1/self-driving-vehicles-are-not-coming-soon

It's a con.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine November 22, 2018 12:58 PM  

"We'll have to agree to disagree on how much automation/robotics will impact society and jobs."

Who watches the... I mean who programs the programmers?

It won't happen because it can't happen. Higher levels of tech require more difficult maintenance, and more often. The only way to the automation dystopia people imagine would be almost literal ivory towers to separate the haves from the new have-nots. The thing about towers though, is that they always have their foundation on the ground, in the earth.

You can't build a flipping needle infinitely tall into the sky. It's not sturdy, it's not stable. There will ALWAYS be a pyramid-like structure which lasts a fair while, and everything else is quite temporary from a high enough perspective. Try to build an (((ivory))) tower in a brown land and you'll find that you've built on sand.

Automation will only be adopted as it can be supported by the polity, and until we have self-reproducing machines (which I doubt are humanly impossible to create to a significant degree), self-reproducing peoples will always have the final monopoly on force as long as they're willing/able to close their hands on it.

Realpolitik though, the drive towards more complete automation is a drive to displace everyone who does not create/own/maintain/operate the automatons. The question is whether they have the right and ability to do so, or will be destroyed in the attempt. I suspect generally the latter due to the difficulty, fragility, and duration of the automatization process.

"Stefan repeatedly, and in this case within 5 minutes of his video, demands people can and should go (and be allowed to go) where ever the economic opportunities are."

Stefan forgets that the places with the most effective combination of:
#1: Low standards of treatment for laborers.
#2: Quality laborers.
#3: Proximity to supply of necessary components.
#4: Proximity to demand.
...Will be the places where there are economic "opportunities". #1 and #2 mean that employers will wish to be located in places with very capable yet paradoxically very slavish populations. Juxtaposition of #4 means that those same populations won't have the income to buy most products, meaning there will be very little or no demand for non-shit-tier products in those locales, let alone luxury products.

What happens is that only a quality social structure can produce a quality product, like a capable automaton. If you want to automate things, you need your population to be significantly above the threshold where their potential jobs (those jobs they could reasonably be trained for and work at) would be eliminated by said automation.

Obviously there are more and less effective (and negatively effective) means of going about producing such populations, and inundating more intelligent/capable populations with less-so parasitic invaders is a negatively effective means.

It won't happen because it can't happen. You can't program good programmers without good families, and you can't have good families without good people. You won't have good people if you try to destroy them.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine November 22, 2018 1:01 PM  

*"Which I doubt are humanly possible to create to a significant degree"

Blogger Steb November 22, 2018 1:11 PM  

Why can't your washing machine fold your clothes when it's finished? Because simple human tasks are insanely complicated for machines.
Street sweepers Williams truck drivers will still have their jobs long after doctors and lawyers are made redundant by AI.

Blogger D Zniger November 22, 2018 1:13 PM  

I love to read your comments! Nice to read all the points to Stefan Molyneux, but still would like to read/listen to Vox Day´s opinion.

Blogger Lance E November 22, 2018 1:14 PM  

Lurker wrote:Truck drivers aren't some components you can just swap out but hey if you're arrogant and don't know any that's no surprise you would think like that.

That reminds me, I wound up behind a "self-driving" truck a few weeks back. Saw it (a) cut me off, via a lane change that was (b) illegal and (c) about 30 mph below the speed limit.

It was definitely not just a bad driver; the vehicle had a literal sign on the back advertising that it was self-driving.

Maybe - and I emphasize MAYBE - a few companies such as Google have the capability to build autonomous vehicles that are mostly safe, given optimal weather and traffic conditions. Allowing these Johnny-come-lately San Francisco startups to launch "self-driving" trucks using some bug-riddled algorithms developed in an Indian sweatshop is not only going to put truckers out of business, it's going to literally get people killed.

Blogger RobertT November 22, 2018 1:19 PM  

I can’t wait for that day.

Blogger SirHamster November 22, 2018 1:24 PM  

Lurker wrote:I've worked closely with many truck drivers and trucking companies. Truck drivers get into so many hairy situations OTR there isn't enough memory/databases in the world to store them all in let alone react to them in real-time. This is just dumBASS elites bloviating about shit they don't know anything about as usual.

There's a recent report on how the emergency stop safety feature sold in new cars failed because iced sensors.

One automated feature that wasn't fully fleshed out, and it's causing safety problems through unintended consequences. But to hear some tech evangelists, this is only a problem of not going all in and replacing all the other systems with the same level of unproven automation, and then getting human drivers off the road.

No one should trust tunnel-visioned nerds with fully automated vehicles on the road.

Just look at their software products, for crying out loud. Does anyone think that a product with the reliability of Windows and project managed by SJWs should be responsible for moving several tons of steel at high speed?

And that's before you even start considering hostile actors attacking the systems.

Blogger Lurker November 22, 2018 1:39 PM  

"There's a recent report on how the emergency stop safety feature sold in new cars failed because iced sensors."

And those are car companies that have been manufacturing cars for a long time. And they still have recalls all the time over MUCH SIMPLER SYSTEMS.

Blogger CM November 22, 2018 1:42 PM  

Wow... on free movement between states, 100%, absolutely with you.

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 1:46 PM  

I wouldn't want to live in Molyneux nightmare private tyranny ancap Utopia (see FDR 3255 at 50 minutes in for about 50 minutes). If I don't buy a DRObamacare compliant plan they will lay seige to me, cut off my electricity and water, not allow me to use the roads and basically starve me more like the FBI did to the Branch Davidians at Waco than anything I would recognize as freedom. Tom Woods and Bob Murphy also imply that (if you wanted to get nukes, you would lose your insurance!). Somehow not "volunteering" to buy insurance allows one to be laid seige to even though not having insurance doesn't violate the NAP or UPB, and that seige doesn't appear to violate the NAP or UPB.

Arrange society to create an industrious and thrifty populace - like Colonial America and they won't even tolerate low single digit taxes, much less red coats collecting. If we want it, we need to do what the Demo-graphic-crats are doing but in reverse. Obtain and preserve and convert liberty lovers. Truck Drivers are generally closer to pro freedom - many have families and resent the regulation and love the open road. Throwing them out of work so some socialist SJW tech titans can make a few more billion is selling the rope with which you will be hanged.

Christians learn to accept but minimize suffering being fallen men in a fallen world. It doesn't take AI to figure out that just having robots trade and getting rid of humans by some minimally painful means would make everything so much more efficient - that is the world of The Terminator. They wish to end human suffering by ending humans. You can't feel outraged by tyranny if you are dead. Death is freedom since you don't have to toil or worry!

There is a very bad tendency for libertarians (and almost everyone else) to create the equivalent of 5 year socialist plans - we'll have road corporations! We will have insurance - security - arbitration agencies! (I only know they know NOTHING about road surveying construction drainage, etc. or about underwriting insurance, security, or arbitration, but since they don't have to do it, easy peasy!). The very "you can't know how the market will solve it" is ignored and not seriously engaged - Stefan should know since he dealt with marketers that promised software could do things that would violate the laws of nature and only cost a few dollars and be done in a month.

Blogger Lurker November 22, 2018 1:47 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Starboard November 22, 2018 1:56 PM  

I'll just leave this here.

https://www.amazon.com/Corrosion-Corroding-Empire-Book-1-ebook/dp/B06XFQ24QC/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1542912886&sr=8-1&keywords=Corroding+empire

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother November 22, 2018 2:09 PM  

What is also important about Tucker is that he and his brother are quasi billionaires. Tucker and his brother both have the middle name Swanson. Yes, that Swanson. Tucker was born into money and has never viscerally known anything else. That makes it more remarkable that he has these positions.

He's almost Trumpian.

Blogger Servant of the Chief November 22, 2018 2:23 PM  

Honestly the biggest threat to the middleclass with the coming roboticisation is not the automation of trucks and other such jobs, its the automation of office work and data entry. True a smaller percentage of the workforce resides in such industries compared to transportation, but enough for us to see a Great Depression era unemployment rate when suddenly all of these college educated men and women are rendered utterly unemployable, increasing competition for lower paying jobs (nevermind the pressures caused by immigration, which only makes it so much worse) the vast majority of legal work, for example, is discovery (literally trawling through mounds of mails, documents and other such in legal disputes to find incriminating or relevant information or information worth retaining for client confidentiality, I have most of my experience in such a field) they are already creating programs that learn by watching humans do the work that they can make the connections themselves and the technology is progressing rapidly. My last job even had the audacity to hold a branch meeting celebrating the coming use of automation to increase efficiency and productivity to a room full of clapping drones who were too busy worrying about life to let the implications sink in.

We may not have self driving trucks in twenty years time, but we WILL see the city centre become a ghost town as firms start firing people en masse and shutting down buildings to cut down on costs for overhead. Why spend so much on renting office space, paying for overheads, employee salaries, insurences and whatnot when you can cut all that out and just pay for server rooms, cooling, upkeep and tech updates, companies would save millions on overhead alone. Its coming and its going to make university educated people outside of engineering and research focused degrees absolutely and utterly useless and obsolete, right alongside the humanities majors the progressives utterly ruined a decade or so ago.

Whats worse? You have supposedly intelligent idiots like this who see the coming catastrophe, and yet have the audacity to come in at the end and paint a 'Oh but don't worry, everything is more than likely to be ok, we'll all be wards of the state in gay space communism, it'll be great!'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&t=5s

I honestly hate these people more than the oligarchs when it comes to this. At least the oligarch's motivation is honest, if callous.

Blogger James Dixon November 22, 2018 2:40 PM  

They already were. In WWII. What we have now is a ghost of what we had.

Blogger Jeremy Daw November 22, 2018 2:58 PM  

Tucker gets it. Totally. Capitalism is "not a religion". Quite.

Blogger Austin Ballast November 22, 2018 3:49 PM  

So we should have more farm menial jobs since that used to be one of the biggest uses of labor? Maybe we should also restore buggy whip makers to their former prominence while we are at it?

I don't completely trust driverless trucks, but keeping them merely because many people do that is rather stupid.

Protecting ourselves from foreign subsidized competition has merit, but not just extending a job that may not be as important.

How many railroad jobs are left now? Should we start a crusade for more of those too?

Blogger Xiety November 22, 2018 3:50 PM  

Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:He's almost Trumpian.
I think about a decade ago, a lot of the right had had enough of Tucker. But damn he's grown in recent years.

Blogger Jack Amok November 22, 2018 3:54 PM  

Yes, people are blind to the fact that this is more than simply an economic problem. We are talking about a complete societal reorganisation that will affect everyone

There's more than one way to reorganize society, y'know. There's the Venezuelan way for instance. Linear thinking can get a lot of people killed.

And those are car companies that have been manufacturing cars for a long time. And they still have recalls all the time over MUCH SIMPLER SYSTEMS.

I do not believe the current trajectory of software engineering in the world is improvement. I run a 30 person engineering team. There is a significant difference - more than just experience - in competence between the over-40 and under-40 members. And I'm pretty selective in hiring.

Blogger Blume November 22, 2018 3:59 PM  

@ camcleat people at your wife's work must be well above middle class. Me and my wife both working couldn't even get approval for more than 150,000 with excellent credit.

Blogger S1AL November 22, 2018 4:04 PM  

"What is also important about Tucker is that he and his brother are quasi billionaires. Tucker and his brother both have the middle name Swanson. Yes, that Swanson. Tucker was born into money and has never viscerally known anything else. That makes it more remarkable that he has these positions.

He's almost Trumpian."

I think what happened is that, after 10 years of working at CNN and NBC, he slowly came to accept the premise that we all have - yes, leftists actually hate and despise you, everyone you love, and everything you believe. When you realize the people with whom you've worked for a decade actually do think that way... It's a major wake-up call. It changes how you look at the entire world, and eventually you either cower poor you stand up and say "Well f*** you, too." And he appears to have gone for the latter.

Blogger Boomer55 November 22, 2018 4:21 PM  

@6

I don't think the "limiting principle" is a slippery slope at all, and I don't associate it with boomers. There is a legitimate concern over how far the Executive Branch can change social and economic policy.

Right now, especially on the Democrat side, it's the worst of all worlds: free trade, free immigration, high regulation, more government "social" spending, less military.

I agree, though, Libertarians have fallen into every trap the left has set for them, "for principles." Stefan Molyneux mentioned to many libertarians being "pro-immigrant" for people that want to turn your country socialist. Great one there, libertardians.

Blogger justaguy November 22, 2018 4:33 PM  

Wow there are many people here arguing that we should outlaw tractors and all machines for better employment. Yes I am drawing your argument to the extreme-- but you are basically saying that the government should have the power over its citizens to regulate their businesses to prevent too much efficiency?

Now the government is so bad already that it totally screws up its basic functions and those it has taken over-- i.e. safety and schools. So you all want to hand the government a stamp on what technology it allows because of social unrest (not safety). What results do you really expect?

I one assumes that automated vehicles are coming quickly (a very big assumption after watching that vehicle not notice and drive over the pedestrian crossing the road) then the government may very well have some challenges in helping mitigate the coming social unrest. At a minimum if there is a certain % of population that will be displaced, the should the government slow down the introduction (taxes or regulation) to fund and allow more time for re-training (not that the government ever does this well) to minimize the upheaval? With society already so affected by bad government programs that seem to push people to dependency and welfare farms where they are reliable D votes, could the government be trusted to help mitigate the impact.

All of my issues aren't theoretical, they are the practical issues from having a government that tries to actively turn us into serfs. Econ-wise, obviously better technology and efficiency is better, socially is another issue, and will our government use the issue to enslave us or help us is the biggest one I see. There is already so much government power trying to control and enslave us.

Thought experiment: what if robots such as on Humans were developed-- they could do all of the physical work, maybe even most of the intellectual work-- mankind might be free of scarcity! Society would change-- so for the good or the bad. How would the muslim arabs do this versus the anglo-saxon pagans versus the anglo christians-- all would have different responses to having no need to work. Too many scifi novels written about this-- all of them envisioning horrible outcomes-- not the paradise that it could be.

Blogger Boomer55 November 22, 2018 4:33 PM  

It's really important to note that the current establishment Republican economic policy is largely driven by Milton Friedman's writings, lectures, and direct advice to presidents.

The way the Democrats coopted them is quite amazing, and Friedman surely realized it by the time of Clinton's re-election in 1996.

1)Negative-income tax coopted into the EITC, yet another government program (Friedman spoke about this).
2) Free-trade connected to free immigration, yet Friedman realized you cannot have a welfare state with free immigration, and Libertarians and Democrats seem to "forget" this.
3) I don't know were Friedman supported interest rate targeting, so Greenspan is not Friedman in this way, only money supply control, and Austrians rightly point out, no one knows the exact money supply.
4)Now leftists are talking about the basic income "borrowed" from Friedman, even though Friedman stressed that a negative income tax is NOT a basic income.

Blogger Gettimothy November 22, 2018 4:50 PM  

For all the commentary on the economics of the matter the philosophical issue is the more dramatic one.

I suspect that this has been solved before and that we have lost the language on it.

Blood and soil nationalists should have a blood and soil economics.

If nationalism is to be erased then globalist economics is a potent, efficient tool.

Good on Tucker; no wonder the bloodless globlists hate him.

Blogger FP November 22, 2018 5:03 PM  

@101

I've seen the same thing in the medical industry over the past 5-10 years. The docs are forced into the supposedly faster computer system and spend extra time typing it all out. I had a NP complain about it to me a few years ago, that he on average wastes 3-5 minutes dealing with the computer instead of talking to patients then writing notes and handing to the nurse/assistants etc..

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 5:07 PM  

@159 when buggy whip jobs in the USA were eliminated, auto worker jobs here in the USA appeared.

Your error is comparing a dynamic economy where people CAN move to a sinking economy being destroyed where it is a battle to who can find a lifeboat.

Blogger Boomer55 November 22, 2018 5:10 PM  

@168 FP

This has become a large problem in the past 6 years. There is a weird movement against workflow efficiency, especially around systems based on Linux. It's as if they are purposefully making everything less efficient, then reversing course for slow improvement.

Windows 8 and 10 are one of the most embarrassing examples of this.

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 5:11 PM  

@165 - your error is the Government is already distorting everyting in this case to make wall street rich. I'm not free to fix my own tractor that I bought with my own money (see right to repair, though it is easier now).

As I mentioned, in a dynamic economy, it is jumping to the next rising section. Instead we are being destroyed so all you can do is hope to jump so you will drown last as everything sinks as the elite extract but do not create wealth.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 5:16 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 5:17 PM  

@150

"And those are car companies that have been manufacturing cars for a long time. And they still have recalls all the time over MUCH SIMPLER SYSTEMS."

That reminds me of a poster hanging in the main computer room at Olde Stockbroker, hawking some vendor's (I forget whose) extremely high availability product.

The purpose of the poster was to take a jab at vendors advertising "5 9's" reliability (99.999% uptime), which translates into 315 seconds (5 minutes, 15 seconds) of downtime / year, which on large systems, is basically about the amount of time it takes to reboot.

So the poster looks like this:

A photograph of a red convertible full of people, going down a mountain side road... slow shutter speed to put a bit of motion blur on the car as it passes by.

Across the bottom:
"What if brakes worked only 99.999% reliable?"

Can anybody think of ANYTHING that comes out of Silly-Con valley which even approaches 99% reliability these days?

One reason why apps like Twitter are web-based is because if you had to install an app on your computer, you would have to install an upgrade every time they fix a bug. They would rather pay for the massive increase in CPU cycles to keep all elements of the display generation (beyond just passing the data itself) on their machines, rather than deal with the headaches of people not installing updates when they are posted. If you pay attention, Youtube and Google Maps software are both visibly changing in some detectable way AT LEAST once a month... and that doesn't include all the other changes which don't have an effect on appearance.

Blogger Jack Amok November 22, 2018 5:21 PM  

Wow there are many people here arguing that we should outlaw tractors and all machines for better employment.

No, there are a bunch of people (same as with the recent student loan comments) who don't bother with anything like "judgement." Everything is binary and reductio ad absurdum. Rejecting using our God-given ability to look at a situation and make a judgement about it puts us at the mercy of every snake oil salesman who promises to solve the problems that are impossible to solve with binary thinking.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 5:31 PM  

@160

> Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:
>> He's almost Trumpian.

> I think about a decade ago, a lot of the right had had enough of Tucker. But damn he's grown in recent years.

Tucker was one of the few people in the NYC/DC cadre who actually DID go out and see how non-leftist America actually lives.

Blogger Behemoth November 22, 2018 5:32 PM  

Given so many ancap arguments are not anti leftist but anti authoritarian I think we’ll adapt fine. Not sure why you think understanding Hoppe would change that.

Blogger Gettimothy November 22, 2018 6:20 PM  

Jude Wanninski's insight that the optimal marginal tax rate is politically driven and changes in response to national cicumstances maps nicely to this topic.

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 6:38 PM  

@176 - check out my earlier post with FDR 3255 (50 minutes in) privatized tyranny. The ancap arguments aren't anti-authoritarian because they accept monopolies or a privatized authoritian regieme (but somehow "voluntary" though they will lay seige even if you haven't violated the NAP and the seige apparently doesn't).
As long as your direct and intentional action which results in the death of someone else doesn't technically violate the NAP, it's okay.
They aren't even anti-leftist because they are so technocratic.

Blogger Lance E November 22, 2018 6:44 PM  

Even if driverless cars and trucks were not being developed by the beneficiaries of free trade, central banking, unrestricted immigration, diversity subsidies, regulatory capture and other liberal/neoliberal policies... there's still nothing wrong in principle with technology restriction. It's just another tool that can be used by statesmen for good or for ill.

Nanotechnology, seed AI, and several types of bioengineering and nuclear technology are all heavily restricted, not just nationally but worldwide. Experts in these fields generally recognize that we do not have sufficient experience and are unable to design proper safety protocols, so the risks to these technologies outweigh the current benefits.

Are we missing out economically due to the lack of a robust nanorobot industry? Maybe. Is it the right decision to hold off until we're sure we can avoid a grey-goo outcome? Almost certainly. Just because something can be done, doesn't mean it should be done.

Someone asked sarcastically, "So we should have more farm menial jobs since that used to be one of the biggest uses of labor?" And I'll answer seriously: why not? More than 3/4 of U.S. land is still undeveloped and the food distribution system is far more fragile than most people seem to realize. Of course I'm not advocating for subsistence farming, but who's to say we wouldn't be better off with thousands more independent farms instead of a handful of giant agribiz corporations that treat animals inhumanely and push enormous amounts of garbage filler foods like corn and soy into the market with the help of billions in government subsidies and several million migrant workers? How is our current situation better, given that there are over 100 million unemployed, underemployed or out of the labor market entirely? Why is it good that most Americans aren't meeting their protein needs while we have such a surplus of non-nutritive grains that we're literally mixing them into gasoline?

The buggy whip analogy is completely absurd. We're taking about replacing humans, not horses.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 6:46 PM  

Wanninski is supposedly smart. I have no idea -- whenever I try to read anything he has written, I literally can't get through it.
And mind you, I have 9 credits of economics from the Krannert School of Management at Purdue University, and I got an A's in my (physics of) Semiconductors course and Discrete and Continuous Signals and Systems (Fourier, Discrete Fourier, Laplace and Z Transforms.... nasty NASTY course starting and ending with multi-variate differential equations)... and designed the first digital logic chip to implement large arrays of nodes to compute the Discrete Rectangular Wave Transform (DRWT) (I was able to get 32 nodes on a chip using a VLSI library system for Silicon on Sapphire technology) after the Prof I did this for had been told by every digital/computer prof in the School of Electrical Engineering that there wasn't much hope of getting more than 2 nodes/chip.
So it's not like I'm an idiot. Something about Wanninski's writing style just drains all of my motivation to slog through whatever it is he's trying to say. UGH!

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 6:52 PM  

And I aced those econ courses WHILE doing electrical engineering homework during lectures. And typically went through each test 3 times -- for the math-based problems, typically solving the first time through using algebra, the 2nd time through using calculus, and the 3rd time through using analytic geometry (by using different math systems, my reasoning was that I would be forced to think through each problem from a different perspective, and my memory of how I did it the earlier time(s) wouldn't lead me into making identical mistakes).

Blogger Dirk Manly November 22, 2018 6:54 PM  

Why yes, that DOES mean that I was finishing 1-hour exams in under 20 minutes. And then using the remaining time to go through the test again....and again.

Blogger Ford Prefect November 22, 2018 7:18 PM  

I've been telling my friends for a couple of years now that it's time for a Butlerian Jihad (say "Jihad" with a west Texas accent).

Blogger tz November 22, 2018 8:00 PM  

@180 few people can cause me an unpleasant flashback with electronics and logic, or with exams I completed with lots of time remaining, but kudos.

@179 - excellent.

This is more middle class erosion - small entreprenurial middle class family farms being replaced with mega agribusiness.

Blogger justaguy November 22, 2018 8:16 PM  

#171: I think we are agreeing that the Government is not the right entity to help with this-- you think that the government has already screwed too many things up so the problems don't fix themselves, I agree and think that the government would use the power against us. Just give Nancy more power to help us right?

Blogger justaguy November 22, 2018 8:20 PM  

#179: Are you saying we should subsidize lots of inefficient small farms because it keeps people employed as well as the many benefits of people producing things as opposed to allowing the small farms to go under to bigger more efficient producers and subsidizing food costs to those without jobs? Right. Employ the 93 million unemployed working age with make work. Or maybe stop importing 2 million + every year and penalizing American employment (H visas take lower wage for years to get an eventual green card).

Blogger Kat November 22, 2018 9:17 PM  

justaguy wrote:#179: Are you saying we should subsidize lots of inefficient small farms because it keeps people employed as well as the many benefits of people producing things as opposed to allowing the small farms to go under to bigger more efficient producers and subsidizing food costs to those without jobs? Right. Employ the 93 million unemployed working age with make work. Or maybe stop importing 2 million + every year and penalizing American employment (H visas take lower wage for years to get an eventual green card).

Actually, when it comes to farming, I would absolutely say that we need to prioritize smaller, family run farms over large monoculture factory farms. Redundancy in the agricultural infrastructure seems like a darned good idea to me. Plus increased biodiversity and soil health.

Blogger Non-Spinning Regular Tie November 22, 2018 9:48 PM  

The main question for automation is this: who's pushing it? Is there a real market demand for it? The latter answer is "not really" and the answer to the former is tech oligarchs and globalists.

As for "saving production costs" automation does not really do that either except in insurance.

In "Antifragile," Taleb pretty well demolishes the automation argument as the cost of machine error (financial markets, accounting, automotive recalls) far outweigh the cost of human error. Forgive my recollection as per numbers, but the costs compound until the profit-loss ends up in the billions (stock market, product recalls). They're simply insured differently and have different liability.

Also - the big push for automation the past couple years coincides pretty well with the unions and blue collar jobs hedging their politics with MAGAnomics guys, doesn't it? Let's never forget that the enemy is petty above all other things and will destroy whole economies out of spite.

Blogger Terrific November 22, 2018 9:55 PM  

From a downright prophetic movie of the mid seventies, perhaps the first public exposure of the religion of "Globalism".

The movie, "Network":

"Arthur Jensen: You have meddled with the primal forces of nature, Mr. Beale, and I won't have it! Is that clear?

You think you've merely stopped a business deal. That is not the case! The Arabs have taken billions of dollars out of this country, and now they must put it back! It is ebb and flow, tidal gravity! It is ecological balance!

You are an old man who thinks in terms of nations and peoples. There are no nations. There are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no third worlds. There is no West. There is only one holistic system of systems, one vast and immane, interwoven, interacting, multivariate, multinational dominion of dollars.

Petro-dollars, electro-dollars, multi-dollars, reichmarks, rins, rubles, pounds, and shekels. It is the international system of currency which determines the totality of life on this planet. That is the natural order of things today. That is the atomic and subatomic and galactic structure of things today!

And YOU have meddled with the primal forces of nature, and YOU... WILL... ATONE!

Am I getting through to you, Mr. Beale?

You get up on your little twenty-one inch screen and howl about America and democracy. There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM, and ITT, and AT&T, and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today.

What do you think the Russians talk about in their councils of state, Karl Marx? They get out their linear programming charts, statistical decision theories, minimax solutions, and compute the price-cost probabilities of their transactions and investments, just like we do.

We no longer live in a world of nations and ideologies, Mr. Beale. The world is a college of corporations, inexorably determined by the immutable bylaws of business. The world is a business, Mr. Beale. It has been since man crawled out of the slime.

And our children will live, Mr. Beale, to see that... perfect world... in which there's no war or famine, oppression or brutality. One vast and ecumenical holding company, for whom all men will work to serve a common profit, in which all men will hold a share of stock. All necessities provided, all anxieties tranquilized, all boredom amused.

And I have chosen you, Mr. Beale, to preach this evangel.

Howard Beale: Why me?

Arthur Jensen: Because you're on television, dummy. Sixty million people watch you every night of the week, Monday through Friday.

Howard Beale: I have seen the face of God.

Arthur Jensen: You just might be right, Mr. Beale.

Blogger Gettimothy November 22, 2018 10:28 PM  

@180 Via this blog's comment section, somebody submitted this link http://syti.net/GB/SilentWeaponsGB.html that uses an electrical model of economics that might strike your fancy.


Re JW.

Wanninski is the only Economist I have ever been able to read. Jude's insight that "The people are primary" laid bare the opposing "widget" view of man that the "The Nation State is Dead" Bartley technocrats employ. Once I saw the "widget" view, that the globalists like Shapiro impose, I realized that the study of 'mainstream' economics was not a study into reality, but into an alien world-view.

I don't have the quote handy, but I believe it was Malken who disdainfully remarked that it did not matter to him whether a chinaman or an American had the job, only that he, Malkin, made money.
In the "widget" view of mankind, this makes perfect sense; in a Christen(dom) world view it is immoral to think of man this way.







Blogger Gettimothy November 22, 2018 10:31 PM  

" (by using different math systems, my reasoning was that I would be forced to think through each problem from a different perspective, and my memory of how I did it the earlier time(s) wouldn't lead me into making identical mistakes)."

That sounds like fun.

Blogger Austin Ballast November 22, 2018 11:54 PM  

tz,

You missed the point. Things are changing. No one guaranteed that buggy whip makers would have new work ahead of time. It is only clear in retrospect. Though that isn't the best example since so few made buggy whips.

The farm worker example is more accurate. I have no problem protecting jobs from unfair overseas competition, but we cannot abandon any progress just to keep current jobs. Eliminating fast food jobs would be just the same, except not enough of the right kind of people work those fast food jobs as do trucking.

I am not sure driverless trucks are a safe bet (in more ways than one), but knee jerk opposition merely because it would impact jobs is short sighted at best.

I would be more in favor of anti-usery laws and a periodic debt freedom, as Vox noted in a recent post. Clearing things out and keeping people from modern debt slavery is a much better thing to deal with.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine November 23, 2018 12:22 AM  

"but we cannot abandon any progress just to keep current jobs."

Ask your self a question. Do you mean "any" progress, or "every" progress? Because if you actually mean "any", you're definitely on the road to hell, just waiting for the hand that will guide you from an inch above the level of your eyes. Next ask yourself "what is progress?" "In the direction of what do I pray?"

Carlson nailed it.

"I am not sure driverless trucks are a safe bet (in more ways than one), but knee jerk opposition merely because it would impact jobs is short sighted at best."

I don't think you realize what happens (assuming it even efficiently possible, which I doubt) when you put that many people in the lurch with nowhere to go and nothing to do. Many of them will never be able to work as maintainers for those systems, even if they had time and money to take training for no pay or negative pay to learn to do so.

Are you familiar with the saying "idle hands are the devil's playthings"? It's true. Idle that many hands and your society is going to eat it like a beanbag-shotgunning to the face. The potential savings of automation in that area is lower than the cost that would be paid.

" Clearing things out and keeping people from modern debt slavery is a much better thing to deal with."

It might be even better, but that's not the question sitting on our metaphorical desks waiting for decision right now. If you fail to take what your hands can grasp while they can grasp it, you'll never get a second chance at opportunities that have already been missed.

Blogger Lance E November 23, 2018 1:48 AM  

justaguy wrote:#179: Are you saying we should subsidize lots of inefficient small farms because it keeps people employed

Freaking gammas. At what point did I say anything like that?

But while we're on the subject: exactly what does "inefficient" mean to you? You didn't add that qualifier by accident. Does inefficiency offend you? Why? Precisely what principle makes efficiency a goal unto itself, and what gives that principle legitimacy?

In the engineering world, redundancy is actually pretty important. Efficiency may be a goal, but it is not the goal. Diversely-owned, geographically-distributed farms growing many different varieties and strains of crops are anti-fragile. Our current agribiz system isn't.

In fact, the system is so screwed up that over 90% of cattle and nearly 100% of bananas are made up of a single species each. A single disease could wipe out an entire crop or animal nationwide - permanently. Oh, and don't eat romaine lettuce. Efficiency!

Employ the 93 million unemployed working age with make work.

I'm sure farm workers across the country, and indeed across the world, would appreciate your classification of their business and lifestyle as "make work". Shall we also say that about stay-at-home moms? After all, child-rearing and values education is so much make-work when we have the glorious public school and private daycare systems that can do it so much more efficiently.

Or maybe stop importing 2 million + every year and penalizing American employment

Table stakes. A necessary but not sufficient step, and largely irrelevant here because H workers aren't generally competing for trucking jobs.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 23, 2018 2:33 AM  

@186

:#179: Are you saying we should subsidize lots of inefficient small farms because it keeps people employed as well as the many benefits of people producing things as opposed to allowing the small farms to go under to bigger more efficient producers and subsidizing food costs to those without jobs?"

How financially efficient is it to have millions of men doing nothing but collecting welfare, and running around committing crimes or otherwise harming society when they aren't bombed out of their gourds on some intoxicating substance or another?

Is it "efficient" to pay for these people's living expenses and not get SOME useful work out of them? If only to reduce the number of thefts and murders, that sounds like an excellent trade-off to me.

Japanese law requires that ALL gas stations be full service, with NO option for self-service. Why? It keeps the riff-raff standing in a gas-station pumping gas, cleaning windshields, checking and topping-off fluids, etc., instead of joining the Yakuza.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 23, 2018 2:37 AM  

@194

>> Or maybe stop importing 2 million + every year and penalizing American employment


> Table stakes. A necessary but not sufficient step, and largely irrelevant here because H workers aren't generally competing for trucking jobs.

You're neglecting the fact that the issuing of 10,000x more H visas than what are actually needed is pushing millions of highly skilled citizens down the ladder, into competing for trucking jobs.

The H-visa problem is so bad, that, for about a year, I was stuck with no alternative but to work as basically a garbage man at a mall.

With a computer engineering education!

Blogger Dirk Manly November 23, 2018 3:16 AM  

I have met exactly ONE person here on an H visa who is legitimately worth issuing that visa to him.

He works in electromagnetic heating, a field which specializes in controlled heating of specific areas of a piece of metal, oftentimes for the purpose of heating only to a specific depth (something which cannot be done with an oven or application of a flame) -- for instance, on the crankshaft of an automobile or truck engine, you want the bearing surfaces to be heat-treated into extreme hardness to reduce wear, but the bulk of the material should never be heat treated, so that it remains relatively soft and flexible enough to take vibrations without cracking; if the entire crank shaft is heat-treated, it becomes brittle, and you get lots of problems with cracking and even shattering.

And why is he a legitimate H visa holder?
Because he is the world's foremost expert on the subject.

And why is he the foremost expert on the subject? Because his father (now deceased) invented the technique in Leningrad, USSR.

Blogger RickZ November 23, 2018 4:26 AM  

Lance E wrote:

"Precisely what principle makes efficiency a goal unto itself, and what gives that principle legitimacy?"

Bean counters and GAAP, the bane of every department head.

Blogger camcleat November 23, 2018 7:27 AM  

@194 Lance E:

"Precisely what principle makes efficiency a goal unto itself, and what gives that principle legitimacy?"

Thank-you.

I read justaguy's efficiency comment last night and had the precise reaction to it you did.

You stated the response far better than I could have. So again, thank-you.

To take it a step further, just how "inefficient" are small farms anyway? There are sub-five acre farms now producing large surpluses and earning good livings for the farmers. These are organic and non-Monsanto-ized.

The justaguy's of the world might ask how low six figure incomes can be considered "efficient" in the face of billion dollar corporate ag. Well, multiply 100,000 times the number of 5 acre farms are possible and it looks at least competitive.

And:

* That wealth is spread among many families, not concentrated into 1-2 corrupt international corps.

* Someone above mentioned biodiversity; yep. Millions of small farms might mean we no longer have to have soy and high fructose corn syrup in everything we eat.

* Healthy, clean grown food can compete with poisonous, over-processed crap in the grocery store if the industrial food no longer has a monopoly. That is, one of the biggest arguments against 'healthy eating' we hear is that it is cheaper to eat crap. Right now that is true, but only because of the Walmart-ization of the agriculture "industry" so they own the markets.

The counter to any "efficiency" argument is "perfection is the enemy of good enough." If a million small farms can produce enough healthy food to feed the population, who gives a rat's ass if those farms are as "efficient" as humanly possible.

Blogger camcleat November 23, 2018 7:36 AM  

@192

" I have no problem protecting jobs from unfair overseas competition, but we cannot abandon any progress just to keep current jobs."

Not all progress is created equal. Some progress is not progress at all but only appears so on short time scales.

What's often missing in "tech progress vs Luddite" discussions is a real cost-benefit analysis. The pro-tech crowd, those that fair near worship "Technology," too often cherry pick their benefits and ignore real costs.

I know a dude that has a "Smart Home" and he's very proud of it. He has bragged about how his pillow can wake up him in the morning when his coffee is ready.

I ask: "So what? What actual benefit is that?" It's just tech for tech's sake and that can be a very deep rabbit hole with many negative consequences.

Buggy whips vs humans driving 50,000 lb trucks at 70 mph is a bad comparison for more reasons than that there were few buggy whip makers.

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