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Monday, November 05, 2018

He knows he's wrong

Nate Silver is desperately attempting to remain credible. It's not working:
FiveThirtyEight's election forecaster Nate Silver said Sunday that the House could end up in Democratic or Republican hands in Tuesday's election, though polling predicts that Democrats will flip the chamber.

"So in the House we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning," Silver told ABC's "This Week."

However, he noted that "polls aren't always right."

"The range of outcomes in the House is really wide," he explained. "Our range, which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53. Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House," he said."

"But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats," Silver added. "Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world."
The low end is 15+ Democrat. Duly noted.
Haunted by memories of 2016, liberals around the country are riven with anxiety in the campaign’s homestretch. They’re suspicious of favorable polls and making election night contingency plans in case their worst fears come true. Some report literal nightmares about a Democratic wipeout.

“We're kind of just in the bed-wetting phase now," said Democratic pollster John Anzalone, a Hillary Clinton campaign alumnus who spent election night 2016 in Clinton’s Manhattan war room.

Two years later, even thinking about the prospect of a repeat of that night’s letdown is still too much for many Democrats to bear.
This should be amusing.

Labels: ,

104 Comments:

Blogger Dave W. November 05, 2018 2:14 PM  

If there's a better example of hedging one's bets, I've never seen it.

Blogger #7139 November 05, 2018 2:16 PM  

The low end is 15+ Democrat. Duly noted.

The Republicans will pickup 15 seats. Thank you Nate Silver.

Blogger bob kuk mando ( a Putin volunteer on the Chink payroll, i have already tried to interfere in the US elections ) November 05, 2018 2:17 PM  

a better example would be acknowledging that it's possible for the Democrats to LOSE seats this election cycle.

because it IS "possible". even mathematically.

that's what error bands are for.

now, if Nate claimed that the House was going to be controlled by Independents or Bernie Bro Socialists, THAT would be a truly novel forecast.

Blogger Ken Prescott November 05, 2018 2:17 PM  

Damn. More waffling than Waffle House at the morning breakfast rush.

Blogger Longtime Lurker November 05, 2018 2:18 PM  

If anything is "extremely possible." Then nothing is. Nate S. should know better.

Blogger John Best November 05, 2018 2:19 PM  

So they don't know what is doing to happen, but they want the democrats to pick up a bunch of seats. The media narrative has been broken in the last couple days and trump his positioned himself very well for when the republics hold the majority.

Blogger Azimus November 05, 2018 2:22 PM  

So the guy is saying his profession is a sham and he shouldn't be listened to? Interesting, interesting.

VD what inputs are you looking at to make your call?

Blogger Warunicorn November 05, 2018 2:22 PM  

"Two years later, even thinking about the prospect of a repeat of that night’s letdown is still too much for many Democrats to bear."

They should kill themselves if it bothers them that much.

Blogger dh November 05, 2018 2:29 PM  

I usually like Nate Silver, but he has artifically shifted the window of what outcomes he talks about depending on his audience, and that's fundamentally dishonest.

Typically, you go with "95%" which is like a college level stats assumption about confidence intervals, or you go with something wide if the polls has more error.

The fact that he shifted to "80%" is an indicator he looked for the first interval where the Democrats didn't win the house, and used that as his low-end, so that he could have a clip of himself saying on TV "that the Democrats might not win the House", so that if that happens, he can try to save face.

I find that to be really dishonest. It is much more honest to say "the polls show a number of outcomes are possible, the most likely scenarios land between X and Y gains for Democrats". Picking the threshold so as to give you plausible cover is just weak jawline terrority.

Blogger stevev November 05, 2018 2:29 PM  

Nate gave a range narrowly focused on the 23 necessary for Dems to take control of the House: low-end +15 (less than the 23 needed) to high-end of 52,53. Most of that range is less than the 23 needed.
Feel free to correct me, but he's using very disingenuous language to basically concede the House will not flip to Dems.

Blogger rumpole5 November 05, 2018 2:30 PM  

"They should kill themselves if it bothers them that much." Part of me recoils at such a statement, but after Kavanaugh? Fake paid for immigrant army, fake pipe bombs, blaming Trump for anti Semetic attack when Trumlow'own beloved grandkids are JEWISH! These people are low, low, SCUM!

Blogger justaguy November 05, 2018 2:37 PM  

I do not think that the assumptions made about polling hold anymore. The statistical samples of a known or guessed population whose statistics/measurements are known-- the statistical basis for polling, probably doesn't hold anymore.

Blogger Spud November 05, 2018 2:40 PM  

The house and senate are ours!
The house and senate are probably ours!
The senate will likely not be ours but the house will be!
The senate won't be ours, but the house definitely will be!
The house is probably ours!

Blogger The Chortling November 05, 2018 2:50 PM  

Well that's a bit of full frontal journalistic nudity that which has potential to create oceans of bedwetting on college campuses.

Hopefully no one hears his backpedaling and only sticks with their "Dewey Defeats Truman" glory days imagination. Then the psychological trauma will be that much more intense.

Blogger jaericho November 05, 2018 2:51 PM  

@13 I like where this is headed.

Blogger Ron Winkleheimer November 05, 2018 2:52 PM  

"Our range, which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53.

How is that remotely useful? If you have a range like that then your methodology is crap.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 05, 2018 2:54 PM  

The usual Napoleon's march upon Paris pronouncement.

Blogger CM November 05, 2018 2:57 PM  

His website still has 1 in 8 for Rs. So did he stop updating that portion of his site?

And Scott Walker polling has him with a solid lead?

So much mixed messaging.

So what are y'all doing with stocks? They have been dropping with predictions of Dem control. Think they'll go up with an R win?

Blogger Justin Bailey November 05, 2018 3:00 PM  

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1059464880955277312

"So funny to see the CNN Fake Suppression Polls and false rhetoric."

Good to see The God Emperor calling out polls for what they are: Republican voter suppression and "acceptable losses".

Blogger Unknown November 05, 2018 3:01 PM  

We just want to see that look on their faces again.

Blogger The Greay Man November 05, 2018 3:02 PM  

Vox, I loved your post on the word "credible" a while back.

It really made me think about the use - and your observation is right. Almost every use of the word implies that the person should be believed or trusted despite being wrong.

Blogger Andrew November 05, 2018 3:04 PM  

Nassim Taleb has also called out ol' Nate dawg for not being good at maths.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1059202026184282113

Blogger Avalanche November 05, 2018 3:05 PM  

@13 "...
The senate won't be ours, but the house definitely will be!
The house is probably ours!"

You left out the last one:

REEEEEEEEEEE! The House is not ours?!?
("What Happened" by H.R.C.)

Blogger Solaire Of Astora November 05, 2018 3:05 PM  

Is there any value to what he does outside of propaganda? I've never liked his work because it's not really prediction but it benefits from people treating it like it is. He can't be wrong because technically he predicts both it's just that one happens in more cases than the other. If the Republicans keep the House we just ended up in one of the less likely timelines. There is no value to this garbage outside of energizing/demoralizing people and creating a media spectacle.

Blogger Wolfman at Large November 05, 2018 3:09 PM  

Counting down the minutes to Trumpenreich Tuesday.

Blogger Pierre Truc November 05, 2018 3:20 PM  

Tonight, on French TV, I am going to watch these two fine programs:

Is Trump really finished?

Is Trump really insane?

hmm... sounds totally fair and unbiased...

Blogger Daniel Paul Grech Pereira November 05, 2018 3:21 PM  

It's nice to know that they've been having nightmares of that dreaded November night.

Blogger Crew November 05, 2018 3:26 PM  

@26: I don't think those shows will age well.

Blogger Mr. Smith November 05, 2018 3:32 PM  

The D's have been pulling out all the stops in AZ. I've been getting unsolicited text message updates reminding me to vote and offering services to get me to and from the polling station for a couple of months now... all of them from the "AZ Dems".
It gives me a chuckle.

Blogger Christopher B November 05, 2018 3:38 PM  

That was my take away, too. I think it was Cook that did something similar, saying that they were more confident the Dems would take control but actually reducing the maximum number of seats they predicted would switch so they would look less wrong if it didn't happen.

Blogger Pierre Truc November 05, 2018 3:46 PM  

Crew wrote:@26: I don't think those shows will age well.

I'm still watching. Goebbels would be proud.

Blogger Xiety November 05, 2018 3:47 PM  

If Dems take the house, Nate says "I was right."
If Dems don't take the house, Nate says "I wasn't wrong."

Blogger Duke Norfolk November 05, 2018 3:48 PM  

“We're kind of just in the bed-wetting phase now,"

Good grief these people are pathetic. Eventually they're going to start offing themselves in big numbers (I think I've read that it's already ticked up in the last couple years).

Let the breakdowns commence!

Blogger The Deplorable Podunk Ken Ramsey November 05, 2018 3:54 PM  

Nate Silver's reasoning could product this:

"From 1939 to 1945, Europe was mostly peaceful. Sure, during some times in some localities incredible violence erupted. But on the whole it was mostly peaceful."


Wouldn't be wrong. Wouldn't be useful or accurate in important ways, either.

Blogger Pierre Truc November 05, 2018 3:55 PM  

Crew wrote:@26: I don't think those shows will age well.

Quote from the show: "Mc Cain was the American Hero than Trump never will be."

They're pulling all the stops! And this is on French TV! We don't even vote in your election...

Blogger Lance E November 05, 2018 4:05 PM  

Wow, he's really going out on a limb there. I predict that Democrats will gain between -200 and +200 seats in the House. It's a wide range, so nothing in between should surprise you!

Blogger tublecane November 05, 2018 4:11 PM  

@34- Mass-suicides have been predicted for Pizzagate and other Deep State-related causes. I don't think 2016 Syndrome is quite enough, but it would be nice to have less work.

Blogger tublecane November 05, 2018 4:13 PM  

@35- Tell your countrymen McCain is Ganelon.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2018 4:14 PM  

"Most of those are under 23,"

Unless he misspoke there, he's saying most of the potential outcomes are in the 15-23 range. When he says the range goes from 15-53, it's easy to assume >23 is more likely than <23. But it depends entirely on the shape of the curve. The fat part of the curve could be at 15-23, with a long tail running out to 53.

It's like if you said there's an 80% chance of a doctor having an IQ between 120 and 180. That doesn't mean 120-150 is as likely as 150-180. Most of the odds would be clustered up at the 120 end.

Maybe he meant to say "over 23", or maybe that was a slick drop-in for him to retreat to later.

Blogger RC November 05, 2018 4:15 PM  

The D's have been pulling out all the stops in AZ. I've been getting unsolicited text message updates reminding me to vote and offering services to get me to and from the polling station for a couple of months now... all of them from the "AZ Dems".

Mr. Smith, the person taking you to the polls can't be taking someone else. And given the amount of assistance that you may require, it could be a lengthy trip.

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey November 05, 2018 4:22 PM  

Has Nate Silver been reading Scott Adams?

Blogger dh November 05, 2018 4:23 PM  

How is that remotely useful? If you have a range like that then your methodology is crap.

No, very close. If you have range like this the *event might be unpredictable using statistical modeling methods*.

Remember, Nate Silver et all are selling a story that you can use statistical models to predict voter behavior. Before this, people used models of non-statistical data to predict voter behavior. That has fallen out of favor, replaced with the more "scientific" Monte Carlo simulations, basically, with adjustments for known voter demographics.

I fully concede that electoral politics in the US might be conventionally and statistically unpredictable in many or most cases.

There just may be more volatility inherent in the reality than any model can capture. I've often wondered if early voting has made is so that predictions are closer to impossible. If 30% of the people don't wait until the end of the campaign to lock in a vote, what does that mean for predicting how people will break late, all the conventional things that prevent voters from voting (bad weather, namely), and all that stuff that's baked into some of the modelling.

I love this part right before the storm breaks. It makes people doubt themselves, doubt their methods. The most strident two weeks ago are now doubling down or alternatively undoubling down.

The level of shit that Nate Silver saying "I don't know what will happen, it's too unpredictable" or something like that would be virtually epidemic.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 4:25 PM  

Nate is already admitting that his predictions are wrong, because, he knows as well as anybody, that there is a pro-Democrat systematic polling error which has been consistent for DECADES.


"Republicans Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House
By Nate Silver"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-need-a-systematic-polling-error-to-win-the-house/

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 4:26 PM  

@4

"Damn. More waffling than Waffle House at the morning breakfast rush."

And it's all going to end with egg on his face.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 4:31 PM  

@7

"VD what inputs are you looking at to make your call? "

I'm not VD, but my primary input is:

"The Media ALWAYS paints a rosy picture for democrats, and only comes close to the truth the last 2-3 days before the election"

Today, they're running all kinds of stories about how the Blue Wave might not come... and CNN is already talking about 2020, because they don't want to talk about literally tomorrow.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 05, 2018 4:32 PM  

dh wrote:...and that's fundamentally dishonest.
Ron Winkleheimer wrote:...your methodology is crap.
Solaire Of Astora wrote:There is no value to this garbage outside of energizing/demoralizing people...

Nate Silver uses a complicated computer algorithm to pull the numbers he likes out of his ass. He presents it the way he does to evade any accountability. This has been his scam from day 1.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2018 4:35 PM  

For what it's worth, the shills on /pol/ are in an absolute frenzy. They can't think it will affect the election at this point, so I guess they're just trying to make it impossible for right-wingers to enjoy the ride like 2016.

Blogger Argus Bacchus November 05, 2018 4:41 PM  

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/I-am-full-of-shit-shameless-manipulator-but-you-already-knew-that/

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 4:44 PM  

@23

"`What Happened' by H.R.C."

They still haven't corrected the title on that book. I figured by now they would have returned the final character: "?"

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 4:49 PM  

@25

" There is no value to [Nate Silver's] garbage outside of energizing/demoralizing people and creating a media spectacle."

Have you ever heard of (((them))) being really good at anything else? Selling lies seems to be their primary profession, no matter what the final form. (((News))), (((Adverising))), (((Music))), (((Movies))), (((TV))), (((Radio))), (((Newspapers))), (((Magazines))) ....

Blogger Crush Limbraw November 05, 2018 4:58 PM  

Just a few days ago, VD posted this quote from an article he reviewed and commented on and which I found meaningful - "Though the press is obsessed with President Trump defining a change we are seeing, that is a classic case of mal-educated Amerocentrism. The shift started before him. He is just a symptom, not a cause. It isn’t even an American phenomenon. If anything we are lagging the global trend."
The word 'trend' reminded me of another quote by Vox himself- "The trend is bigger than the movement, which is bigger than the man!"
We're in a new era and the trend is not waning - it is building!
So - come Wednesday morning DaUsualShriekingBanshees will be out in force - their world is ending!

Blogger dh November 05, 2018 5:00 PM  

" There is no value to [Nate Silver's] garbage outside of energizing/demoralizing people and creating a media spectacle."

I disagree mostly. There is value in poll aggregation. Real Clear Politics does it well, 538 (Nate Silver does it well). They really both want to do more than just aggregate polls, they really want to be seen as predictors and then really gatekeepers. That's the problem.

Polling is massively useful. There is almost no path to victory without the use of data to model and work with voters in small slices. Trump knew this in 2016. Every good candidate knows it.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 5:00 PM  

@37

"Mass-suicides have been predicted for Pizzagate and other Deep State-related causes. I don't think 2016 Syndrome is quite enough, but it would be nice to have less work."

Only if the commit suicide by bonfire.

Anything less is them getting off far too easily for their crimes.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 05, 2018 5:12 PM  

dh wrote:There is value in poll aggregation.
It's quite obvious to me that this is incorrect.
I guess we'll see Wednesday.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 5:14 PM  

@52

"Polling is massively useful. There is almost no path to victory without the use of data to model and work with voters in small slices. Trump knew this in 2016. Every good candidate knows it."

Lincoln did it, both for the RNC nomination, and the Presidential election, without ANY polling companies.

Of course, Lincoln was an EXTREMELY excellent student of human nature... which alone makes it a loss to the entire world that he was never able to write any memoirs due to the assassination.

Blogger Gettimothy November 05, 2018 5:22 PM  

Assume Dems win the house.

Senate will confirm at least one new s.c justice.
Senate will not remove Trump after house vote to impeach.
Trump will attack and play relentless offense against the dems.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 05, 2018 5:25 PM  

Argus Bacchus wrote:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/I-am-full-of-shit-shameless-manipulator-but-you-already-knew-that/
I love the URL. I put it into my browser a couple of times just to annoy their webmaster.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2018 5:33 PM  

They really both want to do more than just aggregate polls, they really want to be seen as predictors and then really gatekeepers. That's the problem.

Right. Nate ends up trying to have it both ways. You don't get invited to give your opinion on TV if all you're doing is aggregating polls, especially if you look like him. So he combines them with other numbers, the "fundamentals," like a score for being the incumbent, a score for the generic ballot, a score for fundraising, and so on, and comes up with a final score and prediction.

But if the polls are wrong, aggregating them is garbage-in-garbage-out. Nothing in the fundamentals tries to correct for flawed polls, so he's still taking the polls at face value. And by including the generic ballot in the fundamentals, he really double-counts any general flaw in polling caused by flawed assumptions by the pollsters. If the polls are right, he will be right, and his fundamentals may help him be a bit more right than others. If the polls are wrong, he will be as screwed as anyone, maybe worse.

Then he will retreat to "Hey, we're just doing the math here; it's not our fault if the polls are wrong." No, but it is your fault if you trust them too much when there are reasons to think you shouldn't. And you didn't get famous for doing the math; you got famous for correct predictions.

Blogger Cetera November 05, 2018 5:41 PM  

Mr. Smith wrote:The D's have been pulling out all the stops in AZ. I've been getting unsolicited text message updates reminding me to vote and offering services to get me to and from the polling station for a couple of months now... all of them from the "AZ Dems".

It gives me a chuckle.


I live in a medium-sized town in AZ about 20 miles from the border. I've lived here a few years. There was no activity in 2016 as far as text messages, door canvassers, etc.

Last week a woman came by asking for a particular female name. I believe I know the woman she was asking for. They moved out around 2010, having purchased a different house in the same neighborhood. They have definitely not lived here for the last three renters (including me for almost 4 years now).

She had a clipboard in her hand, and was working from paper data. Based on her questions, that paper data was signficantly out of date.

The dems want AZ. They want it bad. But they're in trouble. They don't have it, and don't have the organization to get it. Meanwhile, whatever the GOP is doing as far as ads seems to be very effective. My wife has gotten several GOP ads in all of the dumb little phone games, and I have gotten several in other online avenues even with significant ad-blocking. It is all based on IP address location, but they are getting digital advertising out there.

I think the AZ senate race goes to McSally, not Sinema.

Blogger Gettimothy November 05, 2018 5:41 PM  

Sundance posted a pic of hate silvers past bold predictions https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/nate-silver.jpg

Blogger AvocadoBob November 05, 2018 5:52 PM  

I live by these words: Never underestimate the stupidity of the average voter.

I’m not optimistic. I’m prepared to be pleasantly surprised, but I’m not optimistic.

Blogger Lazarus November 05, 2018 5:55 PM  

Two years later, even thinking about the prospect of a repeat of that night’s letdown is still too much for many Democrats to bear.

Report: Quarter of millennial students exhibited PTSD symptoms after Trump's election
by Diana Stancy Correll
| October 22, 2018 10:47 PM

A newly released psychological study shows that some students are exhibiting symptoms associated with post-traumatic stress disorder following the 2016 election.

The study revealed that of 769 students at Arizona State University studying psychology in January and February 2017, 25 percent of them reported experiencing “clinically significant” levels of stress after completing a psychological assessment known as the the Impact of Event Scale.

The assessment, which had been adjusted to take into account the 2016 election, indicated that students’ average stress score was similar to those of witnesses of a mass shooting seven months after the incident.


A Red Tsunami will finish them.

Blogger Gettimothy November 05, 2018 5:56 PM  

Way, way of.

Bill Still reports on a his vision of warring angels over his polling station.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9rvHJBz4sR4&feature=youtu.be

Blogger Cetera November 05, 2018 6:06 PM  

dh wrote:" There is no value to [Nate Silver's] garbage outside of energizing/demoralizing people and creating a media spectacle."

I disagree mostly. There is value in poll aggregation. Real Clear Politics does it well, 538 (Nate Silver does it well). They really both want to do more than just aggregate polls, they really want to be seen as predictors and then really gatekeepers. That's the problem.

Polling is massively useful. There is almost no path to victory without the use of data to model and work with voters in small slices. Trump knew this in 2016. Every good candidate knows it.


The fundamental problem with Nate Silver is he is ignoring the fundamental reality of human nature and execution of decision selection. Nate pretends politics is a probability problem, like the double slit experiment in physics. You repeat the experiment a bunch of times. Each time the individual result may be different, but over time you get a pretty good look at the entire picture, the probabilities, the interference and interactions, etc.

Does anyone believe that if we held the 2016 election 10 times, Hillary would win 9 of them? That just by luck and chance we got the outcome where Trump won? Or if we held the 2016 elections each day for 10 days, with everyone knowing the same info each time, would we get 10 repeats of the same thing that happened?

As a corollary, what about the 2012 election with Romney and Hussein? If we did that election 10 times, one day after another, with everyone having the same info, would Romney ever win one?

No. Decisions made about voting aren't that volatile. How many people genuinely have no idea who they are going to vote for when they get to the poll for big elections? Less than 5%? Less than 1%? How many in a mid-term election? Less than .1%? For some piddly down-ballot decision that most know nothing about and has a negligible day-to-day impact, I would think there would be a lot of variability in decision made, but probably still less than most pollsters would like or be comfortable with.

People make up their minds. They may rationalize their decision, they may hide their decision, they may not even particularly like their decision or what led them to make it, but generally when they execute their decision, they actually execute their decision. It isn't happenstance.

What Nate Silver is actually modeling is what the probability is that he, or we, or anyone else, actually know the outcome of the execution of independent decisions. The probability of the election result being what it turns out to be is exactly 1.0. The thing in doubt is the ability of anyone to see and understand it before hand.

Blogger SciVo November 05, 2018 6:48 PM  

He's spouting nonsense. Literally contradicting himself, and also using meaninglessly vague terms.

If you're going to speak in terms of surprise, then you should define it in some way, like how I say that I would be about as surprised if Democrats took the House as I would be if Republicans got a filibuster-proof supermajority in the Senate.

The truly funny thing is that I think both 1. he's trying to hedge his bets, and 2. he's doing it wrong. My average expectation is that Republicans will keep the House majority but lose seats, so if I were to weasel out of that like he did, I would talk about the possibility of Republicans gaining seats. I believe there is a good chance that he will end up looking like a weasel for nothing, getting blown out his range anyway.

Blogger Daniel November 05, 2018 6:59 PM  

Make Wetting Americans' Beds Wet Again!

MWABWAHAHAHA

Blogger Ford Prefect November 05, 2018 7:11 PM  

I presume I'm not alone in this: when called by a pollster, I happily answer questions with a nice mixture of truth and lies. My goal is to make their work so unreliable that their customers stop using them. I've probably no chance of success, but I can dream.

Blogger Doktor Jeep November 05, 2018 7:21 PM  

I'd say I'm riven with anxiety myself.
Because we're dealing with people who follow an ideology that slaughtered almost 200 million people in the last century.
For that every dirty trick we might assume they won't try, they'll try. All bets are off.
But so it seems written, we got to this situation by our own mistakes. From Joe Sixpack who cared only about sportsball to the boomer conservatives who thought an American flag on their motorcycle vest was all they needed.
I fear that we have to suffer as much as the left does.

Blogger tublecane November 05, 2018 7:32 PM  

@Dirk Manly- Lincoln was a genius, but I'm not sure of the value of the memoirs that might have been. Not merely because we have nothing by him in long-form and there are more books about his life than any human besides Napoleon and Jesus. But also because I have no reason to brlbeli he would have been honest.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 8:13 PM  

@59

"The dems want AZ. They want it bad."

Because it's a border state. Until the wall is built, even if Federal policy changes, they want to use YOUR $$$ to usher in more illegals in the middle of the night.

And of course, drugs, too.

Blogger LP999-16 November 05, 2018 8:22 PM  

Nate Silver has to come around to reality unless he thinks voter fraud will work and it wont work.

I think its sincere and believes the left will win big 11/6.

Blogger Derrick Bonsell November 05, 2018 8:28 PM  

I'm bearish on Republican chances but Nate didn't see 2014 and he didn't see 2010. He doesn't know how to model races that don't involve Presidential candidates and he did so well in 2008 and 2012 in part because no analyst suspected Obama could lose and he had Obama's team feeding him their polling.

Sean Trende from RCP pointed out on Twitter that polling aside there were few indicators of the sort that usually show control over the House flipping to the party opposite that of the President.

I saw a headline tonight that said "generic ballot narrowing as election night approaches."

Blogger Curlytop November 05, 2018 8:31 PM  

@Dirk
And most importantly, child trafficking...these vile vermin need to be eliminated

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 8:40 PM  

@70

1: The man LOVED to tell stories. Especially stories about human nautre. Many of them true incidents which he had observed himself.

2: Even his enemies called him Honest Abe.
His reputation for honesty was known all the way to the Atlantic Coast.

3: He loved educating people. Most of his story-telling was in the interest of not only persuading people to his point of view, but educating them about why he thought & believed as he did.

He might not have ever decided to write any memoirs, but Booth's actions prevented it from even being a possibility.... which is truly a loss to the nation, both the north and the south.

Blogger eclecticme November 05, 2018 9:02 PM  

I predict a 100% chance of weather on Tuesday.

Blogger Rex Little November 05, 2018 9:10 PM  

Haunted by memories of 2016, liberals around the country are riven with anxiety in the campaign’s homestretch.

This is why I expect the outcome to be much better for the Democrats than the polls would suggest. Every Democratic voter is going to be saying to herself, "If we lose this time, it won't be because I didn't vote."

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2018 9:36 PM  

That's not how anxiety works.

Blogger S1AL November 05, 2018 9:36 PM  

"Only if the commit suicide by bonfire.

Anything less is them getting off far too easily for their crimes."

That's what Hell is for.

Blogger Al Du Clur November 05, 2018 9:43 PM  

Silver is obviously telling the elite what it wants to hear while hedging his bets so he can still be a guru. This no skin in the game approach to being a pundit had been a great business model and he was financially wise to have copied it.

Silver's accuracy will continue to decrease as the democrats get more and more deranged and oppressive. Republicans and right leaning independents will increasingly not want people to know their voting plans.

Vote projections will require trying to really understand people to the right of center which will, in turn, require the chosen pundits to have curiosity about people instead of just demonizing the other side and dismissing them as idiots. The NPC simply don't believe in listening to their opponents. They believe in crushing them.

After this election, Silver will likely need to take the approach of stock pundits who always forecast a bear market. Eventually they are right. If Silver continues to predict Democratic wins, he will be kept around in hopes that the new non white country goes as planned.

Blogger DJT November 05, 2018 9:52 PM  

I haven't been following AZ much at all, but I caught clip of Sinema on TV today... My gosh, the "problem glasses."

You people have to stop this literal cat lady.

Blogger DraveckysHumerus November 05, 2018 9:52 PM  

John Anzalone is all over the Podesta leaks. He also happens to have been my elder childhood friend and co-star in a local show. A zealous progressive true-believer, John needs to be stood up against a wall and I will give the order to fire. I can barely wait until The Day Of The Rope arrives and evil is put down at scale.

Blogger James Dixon November 05, 2018 10:09 PM  

> That's not how anxiety works.

Correct. The folks suffering that level of anxiety over the election won't even be able to make themselves approach a polling place. They won't be able to watch the results on their TV's. They'll have to turn off their smart phones. Just so they can avoid a complete breakdown.

Blogger LP999-16 November 05, 2018 10:23 PM  

Nate will be proven wrong.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2018 10:29 PM  

Phrases like "frozen with terror" and "paralyzed with fear" come to mind. These people aren't talking about the normal anxiety you feel when you're worried about something. They're talking about "breathing into a paper bag while you wait for your shrink to answer the emergency phone number so you can beg for stronger meds" anxiety.

You people have to stop this literal cat lady.

I don't think her chances are good, but they should be zero. It shouldn't be possible to win any election after calling the state a meth lab. Not sure what's going on in AZ.

Blogger OGRE November 05, 2018 10:35 PM  

I don't think her chances are good, but they should be zero. It shouldn't be possible to win any election after calling the state a meth lab. Not sure what's going on in AZ.

In pretty much any other state you'd be correct. But AZ plagued us with John McCain for all those years, so they very well could elect a menopausal hipster to the Senate.

Her polls aren't looking good though.

Blogger Unknown November 05, 2018 11:38 PM  

Because it's a border state. Until the wall is built, even if Federal policy changes, they want to use YOUR $$$ to usher in more illegals in the middle of the night.

And of course, drugs, too.
________________________

Even more than drugs, they want little boys and girls smuggled over the border!

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 11:51 PM  

@81

"John Anzalone is all over the Podesta leaks. He also happens to have been my elder childhood friend and co-star in a local show. A zealous progressive true-believer, John needs to be stood up against a wall and I will give the order to fire. I can barely wait until The Day Of The Rope arrives and evil is put down at scale."

That reminds me of my college years at Purdue. At the student newspaper, there was this *itch on the editorial board, named Betsy Lily.

About 10 years back, she was invited back to give an alumni presentation. Then it came out that she was directly involved in one of the climate-propaganda scandals. Purdue told her that they would be pleased if she never showed her face on campus ever again.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 11:52 PM  

@84

"I don't think her chances are good, but they should be zero. It shouldn't be possible to win any election after calling the state a meth lab. Not sure what's going on in AZ."

She probably thinks Breaking Bad is a documentary....

Blogger OGRE November 06, 2018 12:13 AM  

moar evidence that dems aren't feeling the blue wave...some (((blue checkmark))) tweeted, and I quote:

I don't think people are ready for the crisis that will follow if Democrats win the House popular vote but not the majority.

So that might be their angle when they lose the House tomorrow: illegitimize congressional elections because one party received more votes nationally but the other party won more races. I suppose that next they'll be calling for the abolition of states right after abolishing the electoral college.

Blogger OGRE November 06, 2018 12:13 AM  

forgot the link: https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1059553661586567168

Blogger Derrick Bonsell November 06, 2018 12:47 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Derrick Bonsell November 06, 2018 12:48 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Derrick Bonsell November 06, 2018 12:51 AM  

Ezra's being a disingenuous worm. The House isn't filled by one general election but by over 400 individual races. Parties nominate candidates but you don't vote for a party to fill a seat but you vote for a candidate.

Running up the score in safe seats, in many cases in unopposed elections or in California often both candidates being from the same party, etc. Those things may create Ezra's scenario but they're irrelevant. Congress doesn't work that way.

He might have an argument for something like the Presidency, in which case that's one person that governs the entire country. However even then the system in place has been around from the start and both candidates campaign with it in mind. If Clinton wanted to run a campaign that just focused on running up the score in California and New York among other places, she would have been perfectly within her right (and to a degree she did) but that's not advisable strategy.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 06, 2018 1:39 AM  

@89

"moar evidence that dems aren't feeling the blue wave...some (((blue checkmark))) tweeted, and I quote:

I don't think people are ready for the crisis that will follow if Democrats win the House popular vote but not the majority. "


-----

So what you're saying is: He NOSE!

Blogger Don't Call Me Len November 06, 2018 3:57 AM  

the House popular vote

Now they're just inventing things so they can say they "won". Calvinball has nothing on Democrat delusions.

Blogger Mark Stoval November 06, 2018 4:29 AM  

Today is the big day. Now we see if the Republicans can take a big win which would help the future of the USA a lot. Or, we may see the Democrats win big and signal the end is near.

On the other hand, the balance could stay pretty much as is which would signal --- what?

Blogger Dirk Manly November 06, 2018 4:32 AM  

temporary stalemate

Blogger Duke Norfolk November 06, 2018 5:00 AM  

Ford Prefect wrote:I presume I'm not alone in this: when called by a pollster, I happily answer questions with a nice mixture of truth and lies.

We never even let them (pollsters or any other junk calls) get that far. We pick it up and then hang it up. (And only do that to avoid voice mails, which are a pain because of a crappy VM system [landline] which necessitates listening to the whole message before deleting; grrrr.)

Blogger Dirk Manly November 06, 2018 6:25 AM  

there's probably some project out there that's already done which will convert a $35 Raspberry Pi into a VM system with multiple mailboxes, and if you're at home, a GUI interface (pick up a used flatscreen on craigslist for $10 or so)

Blogger Dirk Manly November 06, 2018 6:27 AM  

come to think of it, there are not one, but two Linux projects PBX projects, both of which, IIRC, have a VM subsystem.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 06, 2018 6:44 AM  

illegitimize congressional elections

After Kavanaugh was confirmed, there were articles about how we should get rid of each of the Senate, the Supreme Court, and the presidency. So now they'll be able to throw the House on that bonfire and go full anarchist.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 06, 2018 7:09 AM  

The meltdown of the wanna-be Terminators, who are only made of lead, not shape-shifting steel, will be glorious.

Blogger James Dixon November 06, 2018 8:28 AM  

> there's probably some project out there that's already done which will convert a $35 Raspberry Pi into a VM system with multiple mailboxes, and if you're at home, a GUI interface (pick up a used flatscreen on craigslist for $10 or so)

Asterisk and it's derivatives. But you'll need a modem for the interface.

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants November 06, 2018 4:13 PM  

You actually just said, "I usually like Nate Silver?"

What in the heck is your issue?

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