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Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Mailvox: thoughts on the Brexit theatrics

Notes from a British Brexit observer:

Reviewing in retrospect, Tuesday seems to have been mostly theatre.

Fundamentally, it is a Leaver population, but a Remainer parliament, Remainer cabinet and Remainer prime minister. Ordinary Labour party members are Remainers. Ordinary Conservative party members are ‘no-deal’ leavers.

The Independent Group are nonentities who will immediately lose their seats at the next election. They are powerless and irrelevant, but get a hearing in the media because they have all the correct opinions. They have only one donor, a retired Jewish property developer.

The number of Conservative MPs on the payroll vote (have some sort of government job) who are threatening to resign for the purposes of preventing ‘no deal’ has notably dropped from 25 last week to 15 this week. Only 6 of them have their heads above the parapet. I could see a situation where it is actually only these 6 who are actually prepared to resign 27 Feb or 12 March. It is notable that nobody resigned at today’s Cabinet meeting. They all know that they are finished at the next election if they vote to prevent ‘no-deal’. They will probably be ‘de-selected’ by their local parties anyway – our version of ‘primaried’.

At Cabinet today, the PM promised that on 12 March, she will allow Commons votes on her deal, on delay, on ‘no deal’, and on another referendum – assuming that the Speaker agrees. Those calling for a referendum deliberately want to skew the question to guarantee the result they want – a full Remain. Conservatives that break ranks are likely to be countered by rust-belt Labour MPs breaking ranks in the other direction. No one wants to break ranks, because it will finish their careers, but they will if they have to. Caroline Flint is our version of Joe Manchin, and her group could vote for Cocaine Mitch. Caroline also has genuine principals – “that’s what my voters want, I disagree, but will do what they want.”

Remember that analysing by electoral district, 2/3 of the districts voted to Leave. If the current crop of MPs refuse to vote to leave then we’ll choose a new crop that will.

Cameron’s referendum gambit was taken because he could see that we were simply starting to vote for whoever was necessary to obtain Brexit, which was going to doom the Conservative Party. By having a referendum, he hoped to isolate the EU issue from the rest of party politics and prevent the replacement of the politicians. Well, we’re seeing that the politicians may have to be replaced and the referendum did not bring catharsis, only paralysis.

People forget that the Leave vote is so huge that if translated directly into the Westminster electoral system, it would result in more than 2/3 Leaver MPs. This is what Cameron was trying to prevent by holding the referendum.

We need a new bunch of politicians anyway because the current crop have revealed their universal uselessness. The whole point of Brexit is to make different policy choices. We’re going to need a better lot than the current crowd to make and implement those choices.

I am still optimistic that we can get ‘no deal’ reasonably soon, but if it takes longer, then so be it. Theresa May’s deal is worse than remaining. If we can’t escape cleanly, better to team up with Salvini and gum up the works.

Jeremy Corbyn has secured his position within the Labour Party for the moment by agreeing to support another referendum, but I think he has doomed the Labour Party at the next general election. The Conservatives were already making inroads into Rust-belt districts in 2017, taking mining and manufacturing areas that had voted Labour for the last 90 years, on the strength of Brexit.

Wednesday is going to be interesting because there may be an attempt to seize control of the legislative agenda from the government. But unless they are able to seize the agenda (doubtful) the real action has been postponed yet again to 12 March. Theresa May is basically hoping that people will blink. But no one has much incentive to blink.

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25 Comments:

Blogger Travis Moss February 26, 2019 8:55 PM  

Sorry for commenting off-topic, but I figured you'd find it hysterical that Peterson has a fake hairline.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzr2lPA1w5Y

Blogger Glaivester February 26, 2019 9:04 PM  

Luxembourg seems to want to find a way to delay Brexit without bringing in a lot of Brexit Party MEPs.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2019-02-26/brexit-luxembourg-says-uk-could-nominate-meps-to-facilitate-new-brexit-vote

Blogger John Best. February 26, 2019 9:05 PM  

Yeah its just people and events which don't really matter, the underlying trend and direction of travel is no deal and has been since the referendum was won. The globalists playing for time and trying to scare people with ever more threatening events and people saying scary things. I believe it would have worked if the DUP didn't hold the balance of power in the commons. Its all coming to an end now and the globalists will have to stand on their own feet without the EU to blame everything on. I can't wait.

Blogger Dave Dave February 26, 2019 9:14 PM  

Nobody will agree to May's horrid deals. No Deal will happen and May will be kicked out.

Blogger Joe Smith February 26, 2019 10:45 PM  

I still can't figure May out. Is she actually stupid? She seems like she's stupid, but she made it pretty far in British politics to be as stupid as she appears.

Blogger DJT February 26, 2019 10:52 PM  

It's interesting how the US and UK are moving in parallel these last three years. Brexit and Trump in 2016, and now both are being thwarted at every turn in spite of clear electoral victories.

The knives are out to destroy the teetering pillars of the Anglosphere after our last electoral roar. Can we both pull out of the mire in parallel too?

Blogger My 1 millionth internet profile February 26, 2019 11:37 PM  

She seems like she's stupid, but she made it pretty far in British politics to be as stupid as she appears.

Never heard of Diane Abbott, eh?

Blogger inthebriarpatch February 27, 2019 1:47 AM  

Too stupid to get far in politics? Occasional Cortex lifetimes the fact that... well you know... farting cows.

Blogger inthebriarpatch February 27, 2019 1:48 AM  

*..proves the fact..

Blogger D E K February 27, 2019 3:27 AM  

Like always a great read and perspective. I am still counting on no deal brexit.

Blogger damaris.tighe February 27, 2019 3:40 AM  

Joe Smith wrote:I still can't figure May out. Is she actually stupid? She seems like she's stupid, but she made it pretty far in British politics to be as stupid as she appears.
Theresa May has always been the very soul of expediency.

Blogger SciVo February 27, 2019 4:09 AM  

Our Fake Elites are like drunkards in a downward spiral, with each new embarrassment essentially the result of ducking the pain from the last one. They should be doing improv sketch comedy, to make a virtue of then their talent at barreling through.

Blogger JACIII February 27, 2019 5:17 AM  

These breakdowns of British political process are immensely informative. As in revelation level informative. This type of information not on offer elsewhere.

Much appreciated.

Blogger Balkan Yankee February 27, 2019 5:21 AM  

Excellent analysis. Thanks.

Blogger Gettimothy February 27, 2019 6:49 AM  

"We need a new bunch of politicians anyway because the current crop have revealed their universal uselessness"

We call them 'cucks'.

Blogger JMcCarthy February 27, 2019 7:27 AM  

Damaris Tighe wrote:Joe Smith wrote:I still can't figure May out. Is she actually stupid? She seems like she's stupid, but she made it pretty far in British politics to be as stupid as she appears.

Theresa May has always been the very soul of expediency.

She's very stupid as well, evidenced by her asserting Juncker had described her as nebulous, when it was her conversation he so described. She's also the Christian who has overseen the paying of NI women c £1k each to come to the UK for abortions.

Blogger 1st Earl Hardwicke February 27, 2019 8:07 AM  

@16 Yeah you need precision to engineer Stuka dive bombers.

Doesn't sound very Christian. Paying for abortions though? I know that Eastern European women use the NHS as an abortion service, as it is illegal in Poland.

Blogger Alcuin February 27, 2019 12:11 PM  

Let me add my thanks for these up-close Brexit analyses. The sovereignty of our states and nation is directly descended from (begotten by) that of Great Britain and within that, of England. When the English heart beats faster, so does ours!

Blogger DonReynolds February 27, 2019 1:16 PM  

The supreme irony is that it did not take multiple voting to get the UK into the Common Market or the European Union, but for some reason voting is simply not good enough when leaving.

The galling fact is that Labour leaders fought AGAINST joining the Common Market and the European Union for decades! This was one of Michael Foot's recurring themes. Suddenly in the 1990s, he decides combining with other European nations is a good idea. Is there anything the Left can say that they do not completely reverse later? Maybe this is part of their shameless lack of integrity. Maybe this is the inevitable result when they actually have no principles that are constant. We certainly have no way of knowing why the New Labour (and the old Labour party) keep changing their mind on important issues. Corbyn is simply a crass opportunist, who sees an excited crowd and imagines himself leading them.

Blogger 1st Earl Hardwicke February 27, 2019 3:35 PM  

Kind of like the Democrats in the USA fighting against immigration in the past, despite immigration benefiting them politically. Very altruistic of them.

2006 Democrat support for a fence later rescinded. 2019 Walls are immoral.

Blogger Haxo Angmark February 27, 2019 3:36 PM  

that's an interesting analysis.

Haxo's is much simpler:

in Greece, the (((bankster)-owned political class derailed Grexit.

in Britain, the (((bankster)))-owned political class

will derail Brexit.

as also indicated by the Trump (((debacle))) in 'Murka,

Whites are not going to vote their way out out of a Judeo-globalist ethno-deathtrap that has already snapped shut.

there are, however, other means.

Blogger JohnC February 27, 2019 6:11 PM  

Would Labour win if they promise Brexit?

Blogger DonReynolds February 27, 2019 8:55 PM  

Glaivester wrote:Luxembourg seems to want to find a way to delay Brexit without bringing in a lot of Brexit Party MEPs.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2019-02-26/brexit-luxembourg-says-uk-could-nominate-meps-to-facilitate-new-brexit-vote


The most interesting EU vote to me is the San Marino vote of 2013. Even though the majority voted in favor of full membership in the EU at 50.28 percent, no action was taken because it failed the "quorum requirement" that 32 percent of registered voters vote in favor.

This may be the backdoor to dealing with election victories with low turnout. In which case, not voting at all is essentially a NO vote.

Blogger Derrick Bonsell February 27, 2019 10:45 PM  

Just because people voted Labour in the last GE doesn't mean they actually want Corbyn. May has 2:1 over Corbyn in polls over who people want the PM to be.

Blogger timstick February 28, 2019 5:16 AM  

UK Column News has this kind of breakdown, they are the only ones covering what they call 'Brexit without the exit' which basically means that the Brexit is a purposeful political farce to distract the voter from the real deal which is the abandonment of the sovereignty of the UK through military union with the EU. This is the issue which is untouchable and is absolutely not covered in the UK media.

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