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Sunday, June 02, 2019

Bring on the General Election

So much for Remainer Tory threats that No Deal Brexit meant Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. The first-past-the-post system might actually demolish the Conservative Party to the benefit of Niles Farage and the Brexit Party. And it's likely that the polls actually underestimate the growing support for Farage. As I've often noted in the U.S. context, the so-called "pragmatism" of the moderate Right is often the exact opposite of pragmatic and only assures defeat.

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33 Comments:

Blogger Colin Flaherty's baby mama June 02, 2019 1:37 PM  

The jig is up.
The dam is beginning to rupture.
No pardons for traitors & enemy enablers.

Blogger A rebel without a General June 02, 2019 1:38 PM  

I hope Farage is even more successful than Trump.

Blogger Crew June 02, 2019 1:51 PM  

I think his name is Nigel ...

Just think what could happen in the US if Trump starts the Trump party!

Blogger Rhys June 02, 2019 2:03 PM  

If you are to endorse "controversial" political positions, particularly in the direction of nationalism, you can only do so under the assumption that the media is lying about the unpopularity of nationalism. In other words, you have to have a strong sense of faith in the people to reveal themselves if given the opportunity. The results have repeatedly shown us that a popular "dormant" nationalist sentiment waiting to be channeled into the correct candidates is very real.

Either you are a nationalist, or you lack faith in your own people. "Playing ball" with elites and other countries as a means to gain power is this faithlessness expressed in action.

Blogger Stephen Davenport June 02, 2019 2:08 PM  

If Farage had not screwed up and "retired" after the initial vote, England wouldn't be in this mess in the first place. They spiked the football before the game was over, hurting the process and UKIP. IMO

Blogger Dave June 02, 2019 2:43 PM  

might actually demolish the Conservative Party

Shocking, but demolish is truly the only way to describe it. Very possibly they might not even be in Parliament. Typical tweet in response to poll:

Brexit will be polling 35% of the votes by the next GE day.
Even higher if there is LibDem/Greens alliance. High possibility that Cons will stay out of parliament if they fall near 10%. Labours may end up with few seats if they hit the 10% but Cons will end up with none at a same %

https://twitter.com/Constan74703015/status/1134933836096319490

Blogger sammibandit June 02, 2019 2:49 PM  

You know remoaners are full of it because they normally love it when Tories are losing. They're not even Whigs. Just foreigners or with foreign occupied minds. Read some of the comments on the OP. The biggest complainers are foreigners. Funny.

My Manchester expat contact is unusually chipper these days. He's been craving British treats from his childhood. A good sign.

Blogger John Best. June 02, 2019 2:50 PM  

The horror of the Lib Dems and Greens gaining from the Conservative party and Brexit gaining from Labour. I do hope the Conservative party is whipped out, mainly so Peter Hitchens stops banging on about it.

Blogger Jonathon Davies June 02, 2019 2:54 PM  

Peterborough by-election will be very interesting. The Tories are committing ritual suicide as usual, Labour will split the remain vote. Fingers crossed.

No deal is the preferred public option. Even some remainers want an end to the process now. It's also the only viable solution. Anyone who doesn't offer it will lose at the ballot box.

Blogger John Best. June 02, 2019 2:59 PM  

9 Yeah that election will be interesting. It is also interesting if UKIP held Farage back from becoming an MP for a decade as well. Which is something I thought. Now with his own party he can be the true face and driving force. He is by far the best politician in the country at the moment. For me Labour is in more trouble than the Conservatives, they will get hit from the middle class side by the Greens and Lib Dems, as well as the working class side with the Brexit party.

Blogger Matrick June 02, 2019 3:10 PM  

This is all very good news, but I'm concerned that the Brexit Party will be seen as single-issue. I mean, they were already being hammered for not having a manifesto, and that obviously matters more in a general election.

UKIP were attacked for the same reason, but had corrected that to an extent. It's a pity that Farage's party had to exist to begin with. This success should have belonged to a UKIP with Farage at the helm.

Blogger Rough Carrigan June 02, 2019 3:22 PM  

Conservatism is ideological homeopathy.
"Ohhhhh dear that big gulp of poison will kill me. I'll just slowly take that same dose and everything will work out for the best."

Blogger Silent Draco June 02, 2019 3:26 PM  

Matrick, Cato the Elder was a single issue Senator. "Et Carthaho delenda est." Nogel Farage on a single message of "Brexit now" also works well. The fiddly bits can be done later. Without Brexit there is no later.

Blogger Unknown June 02, 2019 3:37 PM  

I read that Farage left UKIP when they shifted to getting rid of the Asians after Brexit passed.

Blogger Steb June 02, 2019 4:01 PM  

Having a one man band win the General Election would transform our government utterly. The civil service would have no idea what threats to make to keep the ministers in line.

I wonder how many business leaders are privately offering to take cabinet posts in the event of a win, vs people offering to run as MPs in the election.

Blogger Seeingsights June 02, 2019 4:02 PM  

@ Stephen Davenport

George Galloway, a leftist who supports a clean Brexit, said that he had thought the same way but now thinks it turned out best for Farage: Farage gave the rope to Remainer Tories and Remainer Laborites which will hang themselves.

Blogger SemiSpook37 June 02, 2019 4:42 PM  

@5 @16

I think Farage knew the easy part was getting the populace to make the demand to Leave, therefore it made sense for him to leave UKIP when Batten drafted Tommy and Sargon to stand for the MEPs.

Add in the sheer ineptitude of Theresa May’s handling of Brexit, and it made for a perfect storm.

I still stand by my previous statement prior to the election about UKIP putting the cart before the horse (i.e. all of the problems that will be affected by a hard Brexit once it occurs) with drafting Tommy, Sargon, and the like. Will definitely give Sargon credit, as he didn’t expect UKIP to do well given the fact Brexit hadn’t been achieved ahead of the vote, but it’ll be interesting to see where they stand once the BP starts winning seats in Westminster. I think Farage sucking all of the oxygen out of the room for UKIP may end up killing them faster than they thought.

Blogger JD Curtis June 02, 2019 6:00 PM  

Tomorrow morning the Guardian will spin this as, 'Gee, who knew there were these many RACISTS in the UK??'.
Watch.

Blogger Glaivester June 02, 2019 6:04 PM  

Since the EP election, there have been 3 polls out: YouGov, Opinium, and Deltapoll, all polling just Great Britain (i.e. not including Northern Ireland). The results for the Brexit Party are 22%, 26%, and 24%, respectively. (w/Lib Dems at 24, 16, and 16 and Labor at 19, 22, and 26).

On the European Elections, Deltapoll did no polls, whereas Opinium did a UK poll that showed the Brexit Party at 38% Labor 17% Lib Dems 15% (final vote BP 30.5% Lab 13.6% LD 19.6%) and YouGov a Great Britain only poll with BP 37% Lab 13% LD 19% LD (vs. BP 31.6% Lab 14.1% LD 20.3% in the election).

So I would not count yet on these polling numbers, but the trend is definitely good. And even if we assume the poll v. actual is exactly the same as for the Euro elections (ignoring the Great Britain/United Kingdom distinction for the Opinium polls), we still get:

YouGov:
Con 21%
Labor 20%
LD 25%
Brexit 17%
Green 8%

Opinium:
Con 14%
Labor 19%
LD 21%
Brexit 19%
Green 16%

So Brexit Party is still doing at least 4-6% better than the UKIP in 2015, even if we assume that the polls are off. And as more polls come out, hopefully we will get a better feeling for the likely range of support (in particular, Kantar, BMG/The Independent, and Survation/Daily Mail will be interesting as they have been making the lowest polling predictions for the next general election prior to the EU elections).

Blogger Glaivester June 02, 2019 6:15 PM  

More good news - in the EP elections, the League in Italy beat every single poll since April 23 (Scenari Politici predicted 36.4% on a poll conducted 18-23 of April, since then, the highest poll has been 33.8% by scenari Politici).

Brothers of Italy got 6.5% of the vote, which is higher than they have ever polled prior to the EP elections (They had polling high of 6.0 by several firms in April and May).

Blogger D E K June 02, 2019 6:19 PM  

Every normal Tory would deliver a quick Brexit after Farage's big success with his new party and a coming storm in any new election should no Brexit come through.
But what I have learned after the years with Trump is, that there is a Deep State which members are very confident in their ability to steer the ship regardless of the current government. Even in a country like Austria with it's right wing government being ended right now by the deep state you see their grip on things. We will succeed at the end, but change is not achieved directly with successful elections. Maybe chaotic situations like in France with the yellow vests are at the end more productive than Nigel Farage as prime minister.

Blogger James Jameson June 02, 2019 8:26 PM  

Stephen Davenport wrote:If Farage had not screwed up and "retired" after the initial vote, England wouldn't be in this mess in the first place. They spiked the football before the game was over, hurting the process and UKIP. IMO

No, Nigel had no chance of being allowed to become Tory PM. The blame falls more on Boris Johnson. My guess is he foolishly believed a moderate PM would "unite the country", so refused the job.

Blogger sammibandit June 02, 2019 8:45 PM  

OT

Recent video of Rasmus Paludan of Hard Line party in Denmark educating muslim sperg BBC reporter on Western European customs. He mentions problems in England and how BBC is trash while explaining islam has nothing to contribute to the West and Denmark especially before burning the koran.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmPz2Typw9c

Blogger dienw June 02, 2019 8:49 PM  

OT: Behold! the New Afro-Americans have arrived; for they have crossed the Jorda..no, Rio Grande and touched the Magic Dirt!

NRO will welcome them and Lutheran Services will find home for them.

Blogger Cataline Sergius June 02, 2019 9:01 PM  

Stephen Davenport wrote:If Farage had not screwed up and "retired" after the initial vote, England wouldn't be in this mess in the first place. They spiked the football before the game was over, hurting the process and UKIP. IMO

The well timed resignation is on odd feature of British politics.

Get the timing right and you fail irresistibly upwards. I hadn't taken Farage as a serious contender for PM but then I didn't think of Trump as a serious contender to be the GOP nominee.

Once he had that, I became certain he was going to be president.

Farage is going very far, very fast.

Blogger Toris June 02, 2019 9:42 PM  

This is the Age of Self-identification.

Trump 2024: America's first black female President.

Blogger Roman Daoist June 02, 2019 10:45 PM  

VD, what's your take on Carl Benjamin aka Sargon of Akkad? (I bring him up because of his apparent (negative) effect on the UKIP polls (rapey jokes and all)). (I also like brackets.)

Blogger BalancedTryteOperators June 03, 2019 4:30 AM  

Oh ho ho! Hee hee hee! This is the wittiest political satire I've ever read! (No carcasm.)

Blogger Rory June 03, 2019 4:38 AM  

Carl Benjamin is an utter joke. A few weeks ago, someone here was saying Nigel Farage was making a mistake by leaving UKIP and distancing himself from it, rather than trying to be more normie friendly. No, I was assured here, UKIP know what they're doing, as evidenced by their acquisition of Count Dankula and Sargon. This would reinvigorate the party and really bring in that youth vote.

Hasn't really work out, has it?

It would be one thing if Carl were a hard leftist, and his joining UKIP were part of a realignment in politics. But he's an adamant leftist whose political ideology is nothing more complex than laughing at SJWs and being the smartest boy in the room (which is easy when it's just him in his home studio). His abysmal performance, and its contribution to the cratering of UKIP, are evidence of why being an extremely online edgelord doesn't translate into real political change.

The kekistanis who think they memed Trump into the Presidency should learn from his example.

Blogger VD June 03, 2019 4:52 AM  

VD, what's your take on Carl Benjamin aka Sargon of Akkad?

He's not very bright and I pay no attention to him. But he was on the right side of GamerGate, so give him respect for that.

Blogger Scott June 03, 2019 4:56 AM  

Being single issue is a strength. When the UK fails to exit again on Oct. 31st, the Brexit party will pivot to the "election reform" party, because the system is broken and it must be fixed.

If this happens, Farage will be Prime Minister.

Blogger damaris.tighe June 03, 2019 10:09 PM  

VD wrote:VD, what's your take on Carl Benjamin aka Sargon of Akkad?

He's not very bright and I pay no attention to him. But he was on the right side of GamerGate, so give him respect for that.


Sargon is a LIKEABLE guy, mostly interesting as an internet influencer in the process of descending from the net into real politics. The EU elections were training opportunity and extending his brand recognition. His recent videos indicate he's moving towards admitting that native is intrinsic to nationalism.

Blogger Rory June 06, 2019 7:38 AM  

Sargon is so likeable he drove members out of his own party, and had people assaulting him in the street, with absolutely no sympathy from the public, with headlines about him supporting rape and pedophilia. Truly, a man of the people, salt of the earth.

The EU elections were no training opportunity - he's doubled down on blaming anyone but himself for his performance - and the only extension of his "brand recognition" is that people think he's a creepy, smug weirdo.

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