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Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Final UK election predictions

It would appear the British media's recent campaign to anoint Jeremy Corbyn as the New Hitler and paint the Labour Party as the Nazi Party 2.0 has backfired with a vengeance:
Boris Johnson is on course to win the general election with a majority of 28, but his lead over Labour has more than halved in the final weeks of the campaign, according to the polling analysis which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017.

YouGov's final MRP model predicts that the Conservatives will win 339 seats, with Jeremy Corbyn's party on 231 and the Liberal Democrats on 15.

The seat-by-seat model, which is based on thousands of interviews, puts the Tories on 43 per cent of the vote and Labour on 34 per cent. The forecast suggests the race has tightened since the previous MRP results on November 27 showed the Tories on course for a majority of 68.
There are other possible explanations, of course. One is that the UK media stopped talking about Brexit for the last three weeks, and short memories have convinced Labour's Leave voters to stand by their traditional party identification. Another is that the pollsters are doing their usual job of pro-Labour puffery, although this would tend to be contradicted by the non-stop anti-semitism campaign of the last month.

And then there is always the perfectly reasonable suggestion that the media simply has no idea what it is talking about. We'll find out soon enough. Regardless, it is worth noting that a majority of 28 is not at all a bad outcome for the Conservative Party, as buried deep in the body of the article is this little fact.

A majority of 28 would be the Conservatives' best result since Margaret Thatcher's third election victory in 1987. 

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43 Comments:

Blogger Weak December 11, 2019 4:52 AM  

Borisslide 2019

Blogger mikesbooksandthinks December 11, 2019 5:09 AM  

Thew idea that Corbyn is the 'new Hitler' isn't wide of the mark, you've just got the wrong murderous dictator.

Corbyn's heroes are Marx, Engels, Stalin, the old Soviet Empire, inclusive of the KGB's new face of the murderous FSB. The organisation which 'masterminded' the assassination plot against a former Russian spy who was living peacefully in the English countryside; the same organisation whom Corbyn would not denounce despite overwhelming evidence.

Corby and Labour's plans are best described within a post found on an AltNewsmedia website at https://www.altnewsmedia.net/politics/uk-politics/labours-manifesto-now-indeed-is-the-winter-of-our-discontent/

Blogger Shimshon December 11, 2019 5:18 AM  

Corbyn is a victim of Boricide.

Even if the party is still full of cucks, the fact that there are significantly fewer cucks, plus a comfortable outright majority, is a bigly win. The reversion to reality is the just the pollsters' attempts to retain credibility.

Blogger Lovekraft December 11, 2019 5:39 AM  

Report on the cost of BLM/Sorosian Social Justice brainwashing at U.S. colleges is $10 billion/year, and rising fast. NFL has a similar shakedown fund. This money could be used to fix roads, hospitals etc but instead is allocated to people explicitly dedicated to erasing the foundations of the society that brings them these comforts.

https://www.thecollegefix.com/social-justice-general-education-requirements-cost-u-s-students-10-billion-a-year-report/

Blogger Shane Bradman December 11, 2019 5:48 AM  

"Brexit, Actually" is my new favourite ad. Do not doubt Corbyn's remarkable ability to turn voters away. Theresa May was one of the most pathetic PMs in the history of England and Corbyn couldn't topple her.

Blogger Gettimothy December 11, 2019 6:04 AM  

praying for the Brits.

Blogger Sillon December 11, 2019 6:16 AM  

Another is that the pollsters are doing their usual job of pro-Labour puffery...

...And then there is always the perfectly reasonable suggestion that the media simply has no idea what it is talking about.


Do you mean like confusing polls to the London populace with the wider sentiment of the rest of the UK?

They wouldn't dare... wouldn't they?

Blogger SciVo December 11, 2019 6:25 AM  

Why, it's like (((they))) can't decide if they would rather make people they don't like lose, or make people that don't like them lose. It shouldn't be difficult, but stiff-necked.

Blogger Brett baker December 11, 2019 6:39 AM  

I don't pay close attention to Britain. Does their media point out the anti-Semitism comes from morally superior immigrants?

Blogger Steve Samson December 11, 2019 7:07 AM  

Maybe the antisemitism is actually encouraging people to vote Labour.

Blogger Stilicho December 11, 2019 7:25 AM  

Especially when you consider how many Labour voters they've imported since 1987

Blogger Mr.MantraMan December 11, 2019 7:26 AM  

Reason 1,008,965 why I am not a conservative, because who else would believe the "elite?" On one hand they remind us that Muslims are the real West and they will empower the Left till Lenin returns from the dead, then while that refrain is still echoing down the thru the ghetto alleyways they tell us the usual Hitler blah, blah, blah.

I'd prefer the Muslims and other Saints of Color eat the white and jewish progs, sorry conservatives the cozy sinecures of tailgating the Left are going away.

Blogger JD Curtis December 11, 2019 7:43 AM  

I truly hope the Tories cleanse the Remainers within their own ranks with this GE in order to get Brexit done

Blogger Ora Tevzre December 11, 2019 7:53 AM  

I am in the UK. Voting feel a little like voting for Saruman or Sauron. Either way, you get overrun by Orcs. Galdalf isn't on the ballot. He was banned for being (alt) right.

Blogger damaris.tighe December 11, 2019 8:12 AM  

The only thing we can rely upon is that Boris will look after Boris.

Blogger SigSyndicate December 11, 2019 8:24 AM  

When has "No, YOU'RE the racist" ever worked for conservatives?

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother December 11, 2019 8:34 AM  

OT

https://twitter.com/ramzpaul/status/1204642340419383296?s=19

heh heh this is rustling jimmies nationwide.

Blogger Gregory the Tall December 11, 2019 8:35 AM  

Maybe they are using the antisemitism "smear" to win Muslim voters.

Blogger Unknown December 11, 2019 8:53 AM  

Polls typically narrow...or begin to reflect the actual result, right before an election. No idea why.

Blogger qualitycontrol December 11, 2019 9:09 AM  

Last election Corbyn had a really strong finish with pollsters underestimating his support. I feel that Boris only mildly improved the Theresa May Playbook. He still pushes for amnesty and unlimited mass immigration with a point system. So I'm pretty sure Jeremy Corbyn is going to have another strong result.

Blogger John Best. December 11, 2019 9:09 AM  

Also the Conservative campaign has been lackluster, not awful like May's campaign, but sort of tepid. One good moment was the Boris Johnson love actually thing which was funny. Apart from that nothing. The Labour campaign has been better, but no where near as energetic as 2017. I hope George Galloway wins his seat in West Brom East. I think the Conservatives will get a 40 seat majority. Much of the close between the Labour and Conservative vote is the falling Lib Dem vote. Another thing is the Conservative front bench has no charisma and energy, so Boris has to create it all by himself.

Blogger pdwalker December 11, 2019 9:19 AM  

Good.

Blogger bramley December 11, 2019 10:16 AM  

I have heard of a lot of people out canvassing for Labour, but not of anybody doing the same for Conservatives, though that probably says more about my social circle (dire) than it does about the state of the Conservative machine. These people canvassing are not even able to vote in this country in some instances. They love the Labour feel-good huggy hugs and want to be EU forever. That will surely turn some votes against Labour. Who wants to be told to vote Labour by somebody with a heavy foreign accent? Not the true white working class, that's for sure. Corbyn is popular with young people (18-30) who live off twitter and artisan coffee, but hated by pretty much everyone else. Even 'old Labour' types. The anti-semitism smear has been on high gear for the last few weeks but nobody cares because it's only Jews who care about that. Everyone else in Britain is indifferent. It's a targeted campaign coming from the open borders 'New Labour' Blairite types, to destroy Corbyn's credibility, but it hasn't made a dent in the opinion of the people who like him anyway. He will lose, but i do think the margin will close more than people expect. If Labour win it will be a total disaster for the country, and result in serfdom for eternity.

Blogger linesy December 11, 2019 10:53 AM  

Corbyn is very unpopular here but about a third of the population would actually vote for Hitler if he wore a red rosette. I will turn up and vote Tory with a heavy heart because there is no right wing party to vote for. UKIP self destructed and the Brexit party will not supplant the Tories in my area. So for the second time I vote against Corbyn and after this I am done voting.

Blogger Akulkis December 11, 2019 11:23 AM  

" The organisation which 'masterminded' the assassination plot against a former Russian spy who was living peacefully in the English countryside; "

What does MI-5 and the poison which came from the UK's chemical weapons facility a dozen miles away from the crime scene have to do with the FSB or Russia?

You do know the "Putin had him killed!!!" has been thoroughly discredited, don't you.

As Putin himself said, "If I had him killed, he wouldn't have lived long enough to talk to anybody."

The British government just used the poor guy as a pawn in their own "Russia! Russia! Russia!" hysteria.

It's all very odd, considering that throughout history, the Rus and Brits have generally been on very good terms, with the lone exceptions of the Cold War and the Crimean War.... and that last one was odd, because the Brits were allied with France without Germany as the common foe.

Blogger NO GOOGLES December 11, 2019 11:25 AM  

I seem to remember the media's predictions about the UK 2015 General - they predicted labor would form a majority. Instead Labor got annihilated and SNP stole almost all of their support in what was formerly solidly Labor territory. This put Cameron in an awkward position of having to actually allow the referendum on Brexit that he promised to shore up his own party's support.

Given the media has been atrocious at election predictions since at least 2010 this is just so much noise.

Blogger Jay Will December 11, 2019 11:29 AM  

Heartland voters have been auto-Labour drones since WW2. Not any more. I suspect they will lose by a massive margin. It looks like they are trying to lose, but seems like everybody's gone mad so could easily be genuine.

Nobody would care about Jews if they didn't go on about it all the time. Reverse wizardry - Don't think about elephants, don't think about elephants, don't think about elephants.

Blogger James G. December 11, 2019 12:34 PM  

I shall be spoiling my ballot in a relatively safe Tory seat. I can't vote for them in good conscience. Their tinkering around the edges has had direct negative consequences for me and my family both financially and professionally.

Tories came around knocking once about three weeks ago. Labour have been canvassing heavily here, taking advantage of the gains they have had from people who have moved here from London 'for the better schools'.

On thing the Labour anti-semitism thing, plus the Tory islamophobia thing, plus Labour's BAME manifesto, plus Boris's refusal to put a number to limiting immigration, plus Brexit Party's willingness to allow immigration from 'the rest of the world', ad infinitum, has done is made a few people - maybe not many, but a few - sit up and take notice and ask themselves 'Oi! What about us English?'

Blogger James Dixon December 11, 2019 1:35 PM  

> 'Oi! What about us English?'

What about you? You're not a protected class and, unlike the Muslims who smuggle in weapons, you're not armed. Why should they care what you think?

Blogger HouellebecqGurl December 11, 2019 1:35 PM  

Why bash Hitler unnecessarily like that, lol?
He wouldn't have destroyed Britain like the British have done.

Blogger Dyspeptic December 11, 2019 2:10 PM  

Screw the Limey's, they're nothing but trouble. I sincerely hope that Perfidious Albion suffers a magnitude 20 quake and sinks into the abyss. Up until about yesterday they were plotting and scheming with The Deep State to destroy President Trump. They also maneuvered us (with the help of many treasonous "progressive" Anglophiles) into 2 consecutive World Wars we could and should have easily avoided. Because of these conniving, pasty faced, supercilious creeps we are now beset by a national security police state and a crumbling and ruinous empire styled directly after their own failed adventures in world domination for corporate profit. There is no end for the U.K. that is ignominious enough to make up for what they have done to our country and the world. Screw 'em.

Blogger Dyspeptic December 11, 2019 2:19 PM  

Oh, forgot to add that they have saddled us with the most demonic and crackpot economic theory ever - Keynesianism. The whole point of which seems to be funding endless expansions of the Welfare/Warfare State with disastrous amounts of government debt and increasingly worthless fiat money. So as I already said, screw 'em.

Blogger Akulkis December 11, 2019 2:21 PM  

Brits didn't destroy Britain.

That's the work of the Normans allied with the (((bankers))); both groups look down on not only the Brits, but also the Angles and the Saxons.

Blogger Boaty Bear December 11, 2019 2:37 PM  

...I didn't do any of that!

Blogger John Best. December 11, 2019 3:03 PM  

@31 Well if you hadn't rebelled against the King we wouldn't have these problems. Also the American Empire started when you destroyed the Southern nation, long before the fall of the British Empire, which was evil just like the American Empire is. Are you of Irish extraction?

@29 What about the fact that the English are about to decide a general election in the UK because we want Brexit? I also enjoy how the Satanist media and state is trying to drive the North of England off from South England, as 'the north is poor', however the reality is the North just has less debt and less not-British people. So the British state will do what it does, the English nation still votes as one given the chance to do so. Also the English have plenty of guns, however why use them when we can simply overthrow the British state by voting in a referendum forcing them to blow up the system they worked for centuries to enforce, just to stop the implementation of that referendum result.

Blogger John Best. December 11, 2019 3:08 PM  

@9 No the media doesn't talk about the battle between the Jews and Asians within the Labour party. They do try to push 'Islamophobia' in the Conservative party narrative, however it doesn't work because the Conservative removed many of the Satanists MP's from the party earlier in the year.

Blogger LiveForever December 11, 2019 3:28 PM  

Corbyn has many likeable features: he's a career-long Eurosceptic, he's very woke on the Jews and he's very aware of the failures of American Imperialism. However, he's a rabid leftist who wants open borders. Rather bizarre combination of beliefs, really.

Blogger Dyspeptic December 11, 2019 7:31 PM  

"Are you of Irish extraction?"
Who knows. Mostly Scottish if family lore is to be believed. Your question implies that the Irish have good reason to hate the British and I certainly agree with that. Once upon a time Americans hated the insufferable British so much we tried killing as many of them as we could get our colonial hands on. It seems we have forgotten that entirely. How unfortunate for us.

"The American Empire started when you destroyed the Southern nation"

That's a somewhat dubious assertion. The South certainly got a raw deal but civil wars don't lead inexorably to Empire. It started when British style American "Progressives" like Teddy Roosevelt decided that we needed an Empire like Great Britain to be a great nation. Hence, under cover of the Monroe Doctrine the "progressives" of that era chased Spain out of the Western hemisphere and gave us the woeful gift of Puerto Rico and The Philippines. Then the 2 World Wars (and the following Cold War) that you Limey's started but couldn't finish (as usual) were left to us to clean up. Wherein we ended up with even more colonies in the Pacific as well as making Europe an eternal protectorate at U.S. taxpayers expense. World War 2 also lead directly to the institution of the national security police state that now oppresses us and screws up everything it touches. Our “Progressive” Overlords learned all of this from the British. The irony of it all is that we have become that which we rebelled so righteously against.

Blogger SciVo December 11, 2019 11:35 PM  

Dyspeptic wrote:"The American Empire started when you destroyed the Southern nation"

That's a somewhat dubious assertion. The South certainly got a raw deal but civil wars don't lead inexorably to Empire.


1. CW 1 changed the US from a voluntary association to an involuntary one.

2. The 14th Amendment has been the SCOTUS's pretext for the worst centralizing mischief.

Blogger Korbin Ransley December 12, 2019 1:11 AM  

Fingers crossed, hoping for big right wing gains. Well wishes for the British people. May they Profit, and enjoy Sovereignty, Peace, and Prosperity.

Well wishes from across the pond ✊🏿

Blogger John Best. December 12, 2019 4:54 AM  

@38 Because all the people who hate England in Britain are of Irish extraction. All the criminal elements where I live are of Irish extraction. Even the black people in Britain who hate the English and hold positions of influence tend to be half Irish. The Irish and the Jews were the first mass immigrants to England in the 1800's, so it makes sense that these two groups would have the most influence and hatred for the English nation. The Americans were British people who turned to Satanism and rebelled against their nation and their homeland. Your entire system of government is about freedom. Which you then denied to the Southern nation.

Britain was an empire with the act of union between England and Scotland. It was forced on the Scottish they never wanted it. In the end the battle goes back to Good vs Evil, the Southern nation rebelled against the northern Satanist state and had to be put down. The British Empire was Satanic, just like the American Empire is today. So you complaining about the British is totally missing the grand abstraction.

Blogger Wildgoose December 13, 2019 2:15 PM  

@41 No, Union was not forced on the Scots, it was sold to them as a solution to their bankruptcy after the Darien fiasco. At the time they were the poorest and most backward nation in Europe - they didn't even have the moldboard plough, they were still dragging a stick through the ground like the ancient Assyrians.

And nobody told the ordinary English for nearly a year - when we found out what our Elites had done there was widespread rioting.

The English never wanted an Empire, that was the Scots. The term "Little Englander" was invented by Scots to attack the English who simply wanted to trade peacefully with the World with no entanglements.

Blogger John Best. December 14, 2019 12:04 AM  

@42 So what you are saying is the England and Scottish people never wanted empire, it was forced on us by the elites. And now the English and Scottish are moving to free themselves from the British state. Given that the British state was defeated by the Loyalists in Northern Ireland, the financial crash and the Brexit vote. The weakening of the British state is leading to opportunities for the English nation to unite and the Scottish nation to force through leaving the British state.

The same thing happens in every nation, it isn't a Scottish vs English thing. Normal people want to be left alone to live how we please, the elites of whatever description want to force themselves on the normal people and nations they belong to. I am a Loyalist, so I support the Protestants of Northern Ireland, however I have accepted that they only answer to the Irish Problem is population transfers. The British people in Ireland move back to Britain, the Irish people in Britain move back to Ireland. It has taken me years to not see it from a nationalists or emotional point of view. The same thing will need to happen between England and Scotland, as we really don't like each other. I live in Cumberland, which is in England, on the border with Scotland and to the west of Cumberland is the Irish sea. So I have benefited greatly from the Union. However it needs to be dissolved and the Scottish can go back to being Assyrian farmers if they want or return to the Clan system or being Social democrats.

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