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Friday, December 27, 2019

Five more years

Of the greatest presidency since the Jacksonian, according to the economists.
Mark Zandi is the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, a global financial-research group. He says President Trump will easily win reelection, according to three different economic models that Moody’s used to gauge the 2020 race.

The Moody’s prediction model has been accurate since 1980 — missing only once in its four-decade history. That was in 2016 when it wrongly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the electoral college.

While the 2016 election was dominantly won, the three different Moody’s Analytics prediction models including the Pocketbook Model, the Stock Market Model, and the Unemployment Model mostly point to an even bigger victory margin.

Trump wins the Pocketbook Model 351 electoral votes to 187.

He wins the Stock Market Model 289 votes to 249.

And, he wins the Unemployment Model 332 votes to 206.
It's not even going to be close. Trumpslide 2020.

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53 Comments:

Blogger Azimus December 27, 2019 11:21 AM  

He has bult himself an incredible economic lever in the tarriffs - he can oull it whenever he wants to send the markets afrenzy. That alone convinces me the man really is a genius.

Blogger Bad Attitude December 27, 2019 11:22 AM  

I'm looking forward to GE winning the popular vote, and the electoral votes of the bluw states in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact going to GE, too.

Blogger Crew December 27, 2019 11:33 AM  

I want 9 more years!

Blogger Curlytop December 27, 2019 11:44 AM  

2020 is going to be lit! Nothing will be off the table as it pertains to Liberal lunacy to stop this runaway train.

Blogger David Ray Milton December 27, 2019 11:45 AM  

If the 2016 victory resulted in hysterics, riots, and coups then the 2020 victory should have some very interesting results. The empire will hopefully fracture, and God willing, peacefully.

Blogger #7139 December 27, 2019 11:49 AM  

Crush the heretic, annihilate the liberal.

Blogger Tars Tarkas December 27, 2019 11:50 AM  

This assumes people voted on the economy and they likely did not. People were not chanting "build the economy...build the economy"

It's not like the economy is any better than when Trump was running.

Trump is going to win despite the economy, not because of it. If it was the economy driving the election, we would be talking about President Clinton, ISIS, possibly the war in Russia and the war with Iran. Thankfully, we are not.

Blogger digz December 27, 2019 11:58 AM  

VD If the economy tanks because of the extremely irresponsible debt funded growth of the last decade as you and many others have been talking about, you still expect trump to win 2020 ?

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother December 27, 2019 12:06 PM  

Digz,

Tariffs drive prosperity. Tariffs funded the federal government for the first 130 or so years of the US' existence.

Blogger Salt December 27, 2019 12:36 PM  

Going to be fun watching the D Congress Critters in the election too.

Blogger tuberman December 27, 2019 1:32 PM  

"Economy not good, heap big debt, and BLAH, BLAH, BLAH."

This economy is great using the same rules as the last three decades, and much better then BHO's years, or that it would have been with the Witch in charge. POTUS knows about the false stats, the debt, and the rest. He needs to get reelected to move the economy fully away from the parasite economy, including the debt and the Fed. The Globalists ace in the hole has always been to destroy the economy completely, then regroup and retake power. That is not going to happen this time.

Yes, there will be a Trumpslide in 2020, and the Economy will help. In the next five years the Democrats will be destroyed, Europe will become more and more nationalist, and there will still be a lot of work to do to save Western Civilization.

Blogger kmadison76 December 27, 2019 1:59 PM  

The schadenfreude is deep as Zandi is an open borders loving, free trade loving, central banker loving Obama bureaucrat. People like him should be locked in a room and made to hear Trump saying, "I'm tariff man!" over and over and over again. Trump, in addition to giving the white man his balls back, is re-writing the economics textbooks. Amazing!

Blogger lowercaseb December 27, 2019 2:04 PM  

Out here is San Francisco there is despair among the twitter/google techy/lefty crowd. They KNOW Trump will get re-elected no matter what dirty tricks they pull. They also know that once re-elected...retribution for their brazen actions will be coming.

Blogger Rough Carrigan December 27, 2019 2:24 PM  

It's going to be hilarious to watch whichever dullard wins the D primaries furiously tack back toward sanity after having spent months appeasing the infantile D base.

Blogger Brett baker December 27, 2019 2:49 PM  

The Republic is dead; long live the empire! Trump Imperator Aeterna!

Blogger Brett baker December 27, 2019 2:52 PM  

Tars, a lot of places the economy is better than it was 4 years ago. They're not fashionable places, so the media ignores them.

Blogger Dole December 27, 2019 2:56 PM  

It is a duty of every American to vote for the American president come election day.

Blogger Karen took the Kids December 27, 2019 3:32 PM  

The only surprise to me is that the margin for the Stock Market model isn't greater.

Blogger Fargoth December 27, 2019 3:44 PM  

The empire is dead, stock up on canned goods

Blogger Akulkis December 27, 2019 3:45 PM  

@7 Tars Tarkas

"It's not like the economy is any better than when Trump was running."

Here's a suggestion for you, Tars.

Put

the bong

down.

Blogger Oswald December 27, 2019 3:50 PM  

In response to 8. It seems highly unlikely that the economy would tank in an election year, if for no other reason, then campaign dollars being spent will keep spending high and people employed.

Blogger Lovekraft December 27, 2019 3:53 PM  

Trump should get a first-term freebie do-over to compensate for the 3 years + of obstruction and deep state coup

Blogger Ominous Cowherd December 27, 2019 4:08 PM  

I had wondered whether he would have enough Wall done by election time. Looks as if the answer is "yes, already there."

Blogger crypto.fashion December 27, 2019 4:33 PM  

we really try not to spam The Supreme Dark Lord's products too much, but we all need to be wearing this for the inevitable.

Trumpsl!de2020!

Blogger NO GOOGLES December 27, 2019 4:34 PM  

Tars your view is not one shared by a huge majority of Americans. Out here in actual America EVERYBODY (even people who don't like Trump) agrees the economy is better. In small town rural America we have new businesses opening their doors instead of existing businesses closing down. The economy was a HUGE driver of Trump's popularity in 2016 - remember a big part of his pitch was that he was a successful businessman and he was going to be "the greatest Jobs President ever". Most people don't view that as a broken promise.

Blogger TwoDogs December 27, 2019 5:07 PM  

And there is no way in hell RBG will survive past 2024.

Blogger Robert What? December 27, 2019 5:19 PM  

Everyone is so convinced that Trump will win handily that it is making me very nervous.

Blogger Anthony December 27, 2019 5:23 PM  

Tars, the economy was pretty good in 2016 in places that always vote Democrat. It wasn't so good in some of the swing States. Obama presided over the slowest recovery from a recession ever, and probably the most unevenly distributed recovery too. On top of the general economic malaise in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, those States were particularly hard hit by Obamacare. Obamacare got some sort of health coverage to 20 million people, except what really happened is 30 million got coverage, and 10 million lost coverage. Again, this was spread unevenly, and the swing States were harder hit.

Also, the DNC media refused to cover any of the economic bad news - the places that weren't recovering and the people who lost health coverage. Being gaslit made people who lost in Obama's economy even more upset than they would be.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia December 27, 2019 5:30 PM  

I had the privilege, if you could call it that, to be in a meeting with Mark Zandi some years ago (a Philadelphia baby boomer by the way, not that there's anything wrong with that).

Anyway, he's a very smooth talker, and obviously smart, but he is also pretty much a mainstream left leaning Democrat who though the Hildebeast would win in a landslide.

Then again, he doesn't own the Moody's models, he just uses them, so there's that.

Blogger jkmack December 27, 2019 5:32 PM  

I am voting for the socialist. I want them in raging full power before the boomers die. And the sooner they get in power, the sooner the boogaloo will kick off. No way out, but thru. Fire cleanses all.

Blogger Retrenched December 27, 2019 6:03 PM  

Demographic changes and massive vote fraud will make it closer than it should otherwise be, but Trump is going to win regardless.

The big question, really, is whether Trump will be able to keep his promises on immigration in his second term or if the deep state and judiciary will continue to tie his hands.

Still, his presidency is shaping up to be the best of my lifetime by a good margin.

Blogger Johnny December 27, 2019 6:03 PM  

What Trump and Jackson have in common is that both are an affront to the establishment. For Jackson it was New England, for Trump it is the Deep State. And so whatever sins they may have, should they not be excessive, they should be given a pass. It is a matter of choosing sides ahead of adjudging particulars.

Blogger Theproductofafineeduction December 27, 2019 6:04 PM  

@15

It would be funny if Trump becomes a title the way Caesar is now.

Blogger Crew December 27, 2019 6:42 PM  

The Republic is dead; long live the empire! Trump Imperator Aeterna!

The Trump Empire would be a great thing!

Blogger Clay December 27, 2019 7:45 PM  

I wonder about Pelosi's refusing to hand-over the Dem's impeachment articles to the Senate. How long can she keep this up? Is there not an "expiration" date? Even Twinkies have one. Talk about a Constitutional crisis. SCOTUS should weigh-in.

The botox bitch claims she needs to know the Senate rules before she can appoint "house managers". I have a list for you, Nancy: You, Shiff, Waters, Nadler, AOC, Omar, Talib and Green. The "brain-trust" of the Dems.

Blogger Stilicho December 27, 2019 7:46 PM  

Don Jr. 2024!

Blogger Samuraeh December 27, 2019 8:54 PM  

Dont sleep on it, 2020 is about to happen. That's all i'll say. See you next year.

Blogger jarheadljh December 27, 2019 9:05 PM  

Clay wrote:I wonder about Pelosi's refusing to hand-over the Dem's impeachment articles to the Senate. How long can she keep this up? Is there not an "expiration" date? Even Twinkies have one. Talk about a Constitutional crisis. SCOTUS should weigh-in.

The botox bitch claims she needs to know the Senate rules before she can appoint "house managers". I have a list for you, Nancy: You, Shiff, Waters, Nadler, AOC, Omar, Talib and Green. The "brain-trust" of the Dems.


There's actually nothing holding the Senate back from voting Trump innocent of all charges right now. Trump *wants* his day in court, which means that Pelosi can take as long as she wants and the senate can conduct usual business until then. Trump is a showman, and this impeachment is a scripted movie. Trump is the hero who gets to turn the tables on his accusers at the end and not only prove his own innocence, but prove that they are guilty of all that they accused him of. Then the arrests. Then he'll win in greater landslide than is being predicted here. At least, let's hope that's how this goes.

Q said that the Comey Report is coming, to be followed by the FISA declas which will probably be on more than the abuse of FISA to spy on Trump, and then the indictments begin. Hopefully from the massive(unprecedented?) pile of sealed federal filings currently waiting.

Blogger Akulkis December 27, 2019 10:10 PM  

@27

"Everyone is so convinced that Trump will win handily that it is making me very nervous."

Real Americans enjoy voting for someone whom they actually want to see in office.

Remember, in 2016, people voted for Trump who hadn't voted in over 20 years, due to their disgust with the empty suits and connivers put up the by parties.

Trump motivates people to vote for him because, whether you like his personality or not, what you can't say about him is that he's just another phony pretending to be something he isn't, nor that his words are empty and all he cares about is funneling taxpayer money to friends and relatives.

And speaking of that, somebody should bring up that the emoluments clause is for things like Burisma and Hunter Biden, not renting a room in a hotel at the usual rate.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine December 27, 2019 10:53 PM  

"Everyone is so convinced that Trump will win handily that it is making me very nervous."

Either keep morale high or you better have a more definite reason for opening your mouth than "I'm nervous because you're all delusional." Don't want to let that wormy tongue have public exposure for no reason, now do we?

Blogger VFM #7634 December 27, 2019 10:57 PM  

It's not like the economy is any better than when Trump was running.

@7 Tars Tarkas
Ok Boomer

Blogger VFM #7634 December 27, 2019 11:01 PM  

I had wondered whether he would have enough Wall done by election time. Looks as if the answer is "yes, already there."

@23 Ominous Cowherd
Legal immigration is also dropping steadily under Trump. The decline has been masked so far by various backlogs being drained, but fiscal year 2019 will almost certainly show it falling below a million.

Blogger Rex Little December 27, 2019 11:49 PM  

I fear that the economy will indeed crash next year, around midsummer. I fear this because I believe the economy is in a precarious state such that a slight nudge could bring it down. I don't know what this nudge would consist of, but I fear that there are people who do know, and people in a position to apply that nudge, and that some of these people detest Trump.

Blogger Meng Greenleaf December 28, 2019 12:01 AM  

What the heck is going on with Drudge? I keep reading these asinine headliners purporting to claim 55% of the public wants to see Trump's impeachment. Either this is a total misrepresentation of the data, or an outright fabrication.

I do hope the Elves can play a supporting role for the Humans in the coming Orge Wars.

Blogger Archella December 28, 2019 12:24 AM  

I'm already gathering a lot of bets. One riskier one though, is my Minnesota bets, but I'm pretty confident she will turn Red in 2020. I raked it in 2016. This is going to be fun.

Blogger jkmack December 28, 2019 6:09 AM  

@44 Drudge sold his website to some lefties, it aint "drudge" anymore.

Blogger Akulkis December 28, 2019 7:56 AM  

Drudge sold out?

Well, that explains a lot.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan December 28, 2019 8:19 AM  

Trump's twitter feed today is distilled populism that will certainly enrage and demoralize the Left as a whole. The first tweet is about some pony tailed soywhite in Maine happy about white men's suicides and the second was another retweet of one of Pelosi's mansions with huge walls versus the reality in her district.

Blogger tuberman December 28, 2019 9:57 AM  

"What Trump and Jackson have in common is that both are an affront to the establishment."

More important both had/have disdain for for Central Banks. Jackson got rid of the Central Bank scheme in his day, and Trump is working on the same. The Banksters use control of the money to control the Economies.

Blogger Damelon Brinn December 28, 2019 10:00 AM  

The economy may not be better according to the official fake numbers the financial media uses to tell us whether the economy is good or not. But walk out on Main Street and look around. Businesses are hiring. It's occurring to people that maybe Americans can still make things and do things after all. There's a long way to go after three decades of being sold out to globalism, but it's getting better.

Blogger Tars Tarkas December 28, 2019 11:19 AM  

VFM #7634 wrote:It's not like the economy is any better than when Trump was running.

@7 Tars Tarkas

Ok Boomer


Not a Boomer, not even close. Rather ironic given that Boomers are more likely to think politics follows economics.

If you believe gov statistics, I've got a bridge for you.

For all the people touting the economy, if the economy is so great, why is the fed back to QE? The last time the fed was printing all this money, we were at the height of the great recession. Trade deficit is at or near all time highs. The official inflation number is over 2%.

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