Saturday, December 14, 2019

Never believe the pollsters

Audacious Epigone makes the common mistake of believing the available evidence just because it is available:
From the GOP’s perspective, Texas and Georgia are terminal but the party’s electoral winter need not necessarily set in during the 2020s. If the party is able to sustain its 2016 gains in the upper Midwest while additionally picking off a couple of small New England states like Maine and New Hampshire, Republicans could continue to win presidential elections into the 2040s.
  • 368 Biden
  • 170 Trump
Polling up to this point shows Trump not only getting crushed in Michigan and Pennsylvania but also beaten in Ohio, so seeing the path to continued electoral relevance and managing to walk down it are two very different things.
  • 328 Sanders
  • 210 Trump
  • 293 Warren
  • 239 Trump
Polling is incomplete for the rest of the Democrat field. Several states also have results for Buttigieg, but a few do not. He falls in between Sanders and Warren in how he fares against Trump in the states he’s included in.
This is a complete non-issue. The pollsters haven't suddenly improved their performance since getting it wrong in 2016. To the contrary, they have doubled down on their demoralization campaign, attempting to meme their imagination into reality. But it won't work.

Think about this: do Democrats appear to be confident about their prospects the next presidential election? Or do they appear to be desperately casting about for someone, anyone, who might have at least a ghost of a chance of beating the god-emperor?

Trumpslide 2020.

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Blogger Doctor Mayhem December 14, 2019 2:50 PM  

There's also the matter of energy. Say what many of us will about Trump, but he packs the stadiums and draws the crowds.

None of the dems can do that.

Blogger Out of Nod December 14, 2019 3:00 PM  

Agreed - there isn't anyone who stands out of the pack in the field of democratic candidates. They went all in with Hillary in 2016 and have failed to groom anyone beyond that. And if the swamp draining continues apace they won't be able to field anyone of note for a long time. Furthermore, the Republicans have field has a worthy contenders for the presidential race in the near future.

Blogger DavidFromOhio December 14, 2019 3:04 PM  

Demographic are desinty. The Republicans if they wish to win in the future after Trump need to become the unofficial white party.

Blogger Garuna December 14, 2019 3:09 PM  

Trump won Ohio by almost 10 points, and in the past 3 years it's started shifting from a swing state to a red state. This shift is so apparent even hardcore SJWs like Cenk from The Young Turks noticed it back in 2016 during the RNC.

Any poll that has him losing in Ohio should be immediately discarded.

Blogger Glaivester December 14, 2019 3:12 PM  

Thanks, Vox. I saw the map on Unz, and did not read the article, thinking it was probably a black pill-a-palooza. Turns out I was right, and your post here is a necessary corrective.

Blogger Johnny December 14, 2019 3:15 PM  

Yeah, well, you know, what are they lying about this time?

Blogger kurt9 December 14, 2019 3:17 PM  

Are these the same pollsters that predicted that Hillary would win by the largest landslide in American history? Nate Silver was one of this, and he was considered the best of the pollsters.

Blogger Wazdakka December 14, 2019 3:19 PM  

Is it true that any monies earned for an electoral campaign (prior to declaring an intention to run) is safe from scrutiny?
If so could this be why Mrs Clinton hasn't declared yet.
I don't think it matters either way though. The trumpslide appears inevitable.

Blogger Karen took the Kids December 14, 2019 3:23 PM  

The link below is Nate Silvers predictions for 2016.

Notice, every single metric. The actual scenario that played out (Clinton wins popular vote but TGE wins electoral college) is given a 10.5% probability and is listed in the "Crazy and not so crazy scenarios" section.

As Vox says these people try to meme imagination into reality. They remind me of the recent Labour politicians in the UK who were under the impression that the multicultural hellhole of London bubble they live in was representative of the rest of Britain.

Less and less people are prone to this bullshit and if you're a blackpilled piss-ant you're part of the problem.

As mentioned in a recent Darkstream, morale is the most important factor in any battle so if you're going to cower in a corner with your cigarettes while the bombs crash around you, you deserve your fate.

Trumpslide incoming - Veritas vos liberabit.

Blogger Dole December 14, 2019 3:33 PM  

Trumpslide 2020! Absolutely, repeat of the UK election just bigger, better.

Skeptical of republican party going down even with the demographic change. I don't see why they can't start to cater to the new demographics, and whites will vote for them. Perhaps an even worse prospect for Americans.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash December 14, 2019 3:39 PM  

(((Silver))) had the possibility of McMuffin winning an electoral college vote as higher than the actual outcome, at 13.5%.

Blogger Noah B. December 14, 2019 3:47 PM  

The fakeness of our news has long since surpassed that of the old Soviet days. Never in their deepest delusions did Pravda tell their readers that men could decide to become women or that ongoing invasions were beneficial to the nation.

Blogger map December 14, 2019 3:59 PM  

Trump is going to win in a Boris Johnson blowout that will stun the Left.

It is simply not possible for the media to be so obviously in the tank for the Democrats and for the polls to be nonpartisan and objective. If there is value in capturing the press, then there is obvious value in capturing the polls.

The point is that minority representation is already at saturation for the Democrats. For whites, however, the Democrats are still only at…what…43%? What percentage of these white people do they have to lose to tilt the election in favor of Trump? 5%? 10%?

Trump does not have to go explicitly white nationalist to win because the Dems have gone explicitly anti-white. They’ve telegraphed their belief that America is a racist, classist, sexist and homophobic country whose economy is based on slavery and colonialism and who is willing to oil the machinery of capitalism with the blood of workers. They have explicitly telegraphed that America’s evil is due to its whiteness and it is pushing candidates explicitly designed to attack and enervate white people.

They even have their government picked out: anti-white communism, of which Ocasio Cortez is the recipient wing and Bernie Sanders is the administrative wing.

This obvious anti-white messaging is crafted in their mass-immigration-healthcare-for-illegals program, among other things. At the margin, large swathes of the white population will have no reason to vote for the Democrats.

Blogger RobertDWood December 14, 2019 4:06 PM  

*Only the independent they actually hate named Bernie can do that

Blogger Mr.MantraMan December 14, 2019 4:18 PM  

All this being predicated upon the solidness of the D-party and the failed conservative goofs being able to legitimize the crazy D-party.

Blogger John Atria December 14, 2019 4:24 PM  

I live in Northern California, so I get to rub shoulders with a lot of progressives. Anyone who has spent time in the counties north of San Francisco knows that there's a lot of aging hippie, true believer types up here. Few of them are absolutely confident that their candidate is going to win in 2020. Most of them are Bernie supporters and a few Warren supporters. I haven't met anyone yet that's pulling for Biden. At best they're hoping that their candidate will just barely pull through. Most of them have consigned themselves to the fact that we will probably have 8 years of Trump.

Blogger Lance E December 14, 2019 4:26 PM  

Democrats might actually run Hillary again in 2020. If that doesn't spell desperation, I don't know what does.

Blogger Tallen December 14, 2019 4:31 PM  

From what I've heard, the defense / industrial community generally believes Trump will win in 2020, and that he will go on a vendetta against the deficit in his next 4 years, including a curtailment of military spending.

Blogger ZhukovG December 14, 2019 4:35 PM  

I'll believe the Democrats are serious when Mark Warner runs. This time I think Hillary will be allowed to make another attempt. If only to end the Clinton era, once and for all.

Ad Victoriam, Deo Vindice, Ave Caesar Trump!

Blogger Ransom Smith December 14, 2019 5:10 PM  

In a lot of these states, those numbers are accurate assuming a 100% black turnout for the D candidate.
Which won't ever happen again.

Blogger Dan in Georgia December 14, 2019 5:27 PM  

Georgia is not anywhere near flipping. In 2018 when Rs were at peak demoralization, all the top statewide offices stayed republican. The only one that was close was the gubernatorial race where there was a contentious GOP primary (Kemp was not the neo-con choice) and the dems trotted out the biggest anti cop, baby killing, gun grabber, flag burning civil war monument destroying, white hating land whale to collect the black vote. They still didn’t bother to vote for her.

Liberals were as energized as I’ve ever seen them and really thought they were going to win. They just don’t have the numbers here. Probably won’t for a while.

Keep an eye on Gov Brian Kemp. He’ll make a great president in 2024.

Blogger Babydoc December 14, 2019 5:44 PM  

Seriously, the same pollsters who disregarded the massive Trump rallies in 2016 as they propagandized their bogus Hillary victory are so arrogant they think we are going to believe them THIS time, when Trump rallies are arguably at least as large if not larger, AND the whole impeachment sham has pissed off the independents and many democrat voters such that there is an amazing dearth of impeachment polling as the House gets ready to hold the actual impeachment vote in the next week or two. Their internal polls must be incredibly bad for the impeachment coup attempt if the leftists won't even mention them.

Blogger furor kek tonicus ( according to the 13th Amendment, Slavery is neither Cruel nor Unusual: MSAGA ) December 14, 2019 5:47 PM  

remember how SC was a tossup state? remember how i informed you that there were a grand total of TWO Hillary signs between Rockingham NC and Myrtle? while there were innumerable signs for a Democrat State Rep of color?

which way did SC go in the election? and by how much?

remember how PA was solid Hillary? remember how i told you that Pittsburgh was almost half Trump signage?

these pollsters KNOW that they're lying.

Blogger Didas Kalos December 14, 2019 5:53 PM  

I think 1, they are thinking of ways to steal the election via fraud and 2 they are trying to determine who can we sacrifice against the GE?

Blogger Ska_Boss December 14, 2019 5:54 PM  

Funny that fake news/polling is brought up, I looked this up just last night researching something completely unrelated. More truth hiding in plain sight:

Strong's Concordance
G538 (Greek)
Of uncertain derivation; to cheat, that is, delude: - deceive.

Blogger Felis Concolor December 14, 2019 5:56 PM  

Isn't there a turn of phrase regarding doing the same thing and expecting different results?

Blogger Joe Smith December 14, 2019 6:07 PM  

The Democrats are standing with their backs to the corner, hands shaking, fear crazed eyes wide, telling Trump they've got him exactly where they want him. The chattering classes might be buying it but the god-emperor clearly isn't.

Blogger VFM #7634 December 14, 2019 6:15 PM  

Georgia is not anywhere near flipping.

They're assuming that blacks and Hispanics will continue ballooning the Atlanta area. I'm not so sure.

The Hispanic tide is rapidly losing steam, even with the Central American fake asylum seekers.

If we had no immigration, whites, especially Republican whites, would actually be in the healthiest shape demographically. All the nonwhite groups, being Democrats, would rapidly drop to lowest-low fertility. In fact, births to both Hispanics and Asians are falling under Trump, even though you wouldn't expect them to mathematically.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine December 14, 2019 6:16 PM  


Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother December 14, 2019 6:16 PM  

Their agony is delicious

Blogger American Nationalist December 14, 2019 6:47 PM  

I'd been feeling nervous about the upcoming election because someone mentioned to me that all the people that didn't think he was serious last time are gonna make sure to go vote against him this time. But Vox is always right, so trust the plan!

Blogger D E K December 14, 2019 6:56 PM  

Voter ID is the one thing I would want to see. It is crazy for me that dead people and migrants can vote. Even one illegal vote is one too much. From this perspective the whole pollster thing is just made to make the fraud afterwards more believable for the audience.

Blogger SmokeyJoe December 14, 2019 7:18 PM  

10. Dole
"I don't see why they can't start to cater to the new demographics..."

Because for the most part, the Democrats and Republicans are just two cheeks of the same ass.

Blogger Damelon Brinn December 14, 2019 7:24 PM  

I went to an auction today. Saw the usual handful of Trump hats, but one I hadn't seen before:

** TRUMP **
*** 2020 ***

Granted, this is an area that votes 75% R. But they're also the kind of nice white Midwesterners that the media has spent three years trying to embarrass out of supporting Trump. It's backfiring.

Blogger Didas Kalos December 14, 2019 7:28 PM  

@D E K. What is a migrant?

Blogger Dan in Georgia December 14, 2019 7:36 PM  

Agree, the new facelift is an indicator she wants to look younger than Trump. The problem is she looks like a young Jigsaw. Maybe Baby Yoda would’ve been a better option.

Blogger Doktor Jeep December 14, 2019 7:46 PM  

Or they are planning on voter and election fraud to epic proportions.

Blogger December 14, 2019 7:51 PM  

Trumpsl!de 2020!

Blogger Cary December 14, 2019 8:18 PM  

I'm from Ohio and I have to echo Garuna in #4. Hillary didn't even try in 2016 because Ohio just wasn't competitive. When I saw the AE post the other day, I started looking at the maps and saw OH was blue and just stopped. Seeing it referenced here again, I went and looked to see their polls. They had one Biden +6 and one Biden +8. What a joke. Trump won by over 8. And when Obamba won, it was by 4.6 and 3.0. The only other D to win it since Reagan was Clinton. R's are far more united behind Trump now than they were in 2016. This is just the lugenpresse trying to demoralize.

Blogger Retrenched December 14, 2019 8:28 PM  

I don't get people who are smart enough to see through 99% of the media's lies, yet still think their polling data is somehow legit.

Blogger Derrick Bonsell December 14, 2019 8:56 PM  

Umm isn't there a lot of polling showing Trump leading in all of those states?

Blogger Daniel December 14, 2019 8:58 PM  

The God Emperor will get the vast majority of the 4-5percent of the 2016 vote that went for the Libertarian and Egg McMuffin. That alone will help secure the Midwest battleground states and quite possibly turn Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine and New Hampshire in his favor.

Blogger CCP December 14, 2019 9:44 PM  

Biden-Thunderstruck wouldn't have the same feel

Blogger D. December 14, 2019 10:31 PM  

After 2016, I no longer read news about polls nor people who blog about them.

Blogger Dire Badger December 14, 2019 10:32 PM  

UNZ is packed to the Gills with Nates right now.

Blogger OvergrownHobbit December 14, 2019 10:35 PM  

@37 Spot on. Don't forget to lie to the pollsters.

Blogger Noah B. December 14, 2019 10:39 PM  

@Dan in Georgia

The problem is she looks like a young Jigsaw.

Earlier when I saw her post-facelift pic I couldn't quite put my finger on what she reminded me of, but you freaking nailed it.

Let the memes flow!

Blogger Brick Hardslab December 14, 2019 11:19 PM  

How does Bernie beat Trump? He can't take his own mic back from a couple of girls. Nothing says, 'leader' like two school girls taking your lunch money.

Blogger Audacious Epigone December 15, 2019 12:23 AM  

I don't necessarily believe it, I'm just presenting the most recent RCP results.

The betting markets have the election at a near coin flip, with Trump at a 46% chance of re-election. My advice is to put more stock in those than corporate media polling. That said, 2016 polling wasn't as off the mark as often assumed.

Blogger Bobiojimbo December 15, 2019 1:12 AM  

Trumpslide 2020!

Blogger carnaby December 15, 2019 1:16 AM  

Bwa freaking ha! I didn't believe them in 2016. It's 100% a morale game. Not just that they want to diminish right wing enthusiasm for Trump but also to bolster enthusiasm for the left. Good luck with that, we aren't going to play Charlie Brown anymore.

Blogger James Dixon December 15, 2019 1:32 AM  

> They’ve telegraphed their belief that America is a racist, classist, sexist and homophobic country...

They've also telegraphed that they're going for gun and wealth confiscation. Either one would cause them problems. Both are almost certain to kill their chances.

Blogger James Dixon December 15, 2019 1:38 AM  

> Or do they appear to be desperately casting about for someone, anyone, who might have at least a ghost of a chance of beating the god-emperor?

The less sane amongst them still think Michelle or Oprah might step in to save their bacon. I expect Hillary to wait for a brokered convention, and then offer her services.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine December 15, 2019 2:30 AM  

"That said, 2016 polling wasn't as off the mark as often assumed."

Here come the wormtongues to lie and move your goalposts for free at the same time.

The polling the results of which were most propagated? Further off than is often assumed.

Blogger Marie Everington December 15, 2019 2:31 AM  

Trump is polling about where Obama was in 2011 as an incumbent. How'd that work out for the incumbent again?

Blogger boogeyman December 15, 2019 4:59 AM  

Biden is rapidly going senile and can't stop touching kids and women in public. Once they start running head to head, Trump will make him look like a babbling fool even to ardent Democrats. He loses.

Warren will never get out from under the Pocahontas thing, her Medicare for all roll out was a disaster, and blacks aren't going to vote for her. She loses.

Trump just has to remind people Bernie wants to give the vote to felons still in prison, including terrorists like the Boston bomber. The full on socialists will still vote for him, but it will be a deal killer for everyone else. He loses.

Butt-giggidy is the only person more unpopular with blacks than Warren. Black and Hispanic males are simply not going to vote for an openly gay white dude married to another guy named Chasten. Combine that with several polls over the last year showing Trump's approval rating among blacks sitting higher than 25%, and the sanctimonious little prick will not be able to muster enough minority votes. He loses.

Hillary didn't win last time, and she hasn't made any new friends since then. Trump on the other hand has made a number of converts. She loses.

The only way Trump lose is if there is an '08 style economic crash, he's caught on tape screwing a child, or if he's assassinated. In other words, I'm more worried some Democrat will shoot him than beat him.

Blogger SciVo December 15, 2019 5:22 AM  

Audacious Epigone wrote:The betting markets have the election at a near coin flip, with Trump at a 46% chance of re-election. My advice is to put more stock in those than corporate media polling.

I suggest that while you're not wrong -- the corporate media polling is terrible -- you should also treat the betting markets like you're betting against Notre Dame, and all the Irish are puffing it up. Easy money.

Blogger Stilicho December 15, 2019 7:33 AM  

Mini Mike is already running anti Trump ads in ohio and likely in MI, PA,and WI as well. It looks like the dem's plan is to go relentlessly anti Trump in the Midwest in the hope that whoever is their nominee can capitalize on any anti trump sentiment next November. Also timed to coincide with impeachment. In short, they're approaching this election with the same playbook they've always used and treating 2016 as a one time aberration. Some negativity, a little triangulation, peel off a few votes here and there and have the vote fraud machine ready to make up the difference in a few crucial precincts if it close.

Or it could just be mini Mikes ego.

Either way, Trump has shown himself to be smarter than his opponents and better at planning and running a campaign. The dems haven't come to terms with the fact that their media monopoly isn't as effective as it used to be. Neither is "raciss!". Global warming never worked for them at the polls, and the gretard is even more hilarious than algore as a cheerleader for Gaia worshiping commies.

This election is going to get downright entertaining before it is over.

Blogger Blastmaster December 15, 2019 8:36 AM  

If there is a federal restructuring of welfare benefits that stops paying a certain group of people to have children that they cant support, and maybe limits benefits to one child, another dysfunctional dysgenic group may drop under replacement birthrate as well

Blogger Damelon Brinn December 15, 2019 8:50 AM  

In short, they're approaching this election with the same playbook they've always used and treating 2016 as a one time aberration.

Not surprising, if they drank their own koolaid about how the election was stolen by Muh Russia. The ones at the top know better than that, but their underlings and the D rank-and-file don't, so they have to keep pushing a campaign based on it. Keep an eye out for Russians, don't ignore and insult the Midwest this time, and it should be in the bag.

One thing about looking at 2016 is that Trump is the incumbent this time. That's normally understood to be a huge advantage, and it's a bigger one for him because he was barely even in the party when he started last time. He won't have to spend a bunch of money just getting into the thing this time, let alone getting the nomination. He can wait until there's a real candidate and then come full bore. They're burning through money and eating each other and he hasn't even started yet.

Blogger Alex December 15, 2019 9:02 AM  

Fertility rate among all races/ethnic groups in the USA is below replacement ent level.

Blogger Daniel Heneghan December 15, 2019 4:38 PM  


>>Demographic are desinty. The Republicans if they wish to win in the future after Trump need to become the unofficial white party.<<

The Republican party already is the unofficial white party. What needs be is for the Republicans to make themselves the explicitly, OFFICIAL white party. The public mind needs to be concentrated.

Blogger Unknown December 16, 2019 4:04 AM  

A lot of people are secretly right wing and won't openly state their views. They are the "silent majority". Polls do not accurately reflect the mindset of the people when the left aggressively try to silence people and destroy their livelihood.

Blogger Dire Badger December 16, 2019 7:36 AM  

What;s the difference between a pollster and a Pornstar?
Porn stars give a more honest, believable performance.

Blogger Nate December 16, 2019 3:03 PM  


Its not just about the polls being wrong... they are. but people come on. This election is over. Presidents almost always win second terms. The only times they have not won second terms happened when you have a combination of bad economies as well as an absolutely fantastic political opponent.

Carter was over seeing a horribly shitty economy.. and he ran into Ronald Reagan.. who was a monster politician. Later... George H. also found himself over seeing a recession... and he ran into a political buzzsaw known as Bill Clinton.

There is no Clinton or Reagan out there.. and the economy is better than it has been in 15 years.

Trump has already won the election. Its over.

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