Monday, December 23, 2019

The stages of U.S. decline

Men of the West apply Sir John Glubb's stages of the life cycle of empires with the rise and ongoing fall of the USA:
Let’s look at the Glubb’s stages of the life cycle and see how they match up with the life cycle of the United States.

Stage I: Outburst.   This stage is the pioneer stage.  As Glubb states, over and over again in history, we see a small native people exploding and conquering large land masses.  To many, this will make them think of Manifest Destiny and the western expansion, but to my own eye, the outburst was the Revolutionary War.  Before the war, the colonies were insignificant on the world stage.  Then came the defeat of the English.  It is after all called the Shot Heard Round the World for a reason.

Stage II: Age of Conquest:  In this stage we see the great expansion.  This is where manifest destiny comes in.  Old weapons are mastered and improved, new weapons are invented, and massive lands are conquered.   While conquering and settling these new lands, massive amounts of wealth are generated.  Again, this should all be sounding familiar.

Stage III:  Age of Commerce:  Industrial Revolution, anyone?  All of that wealth ends up being put to use, as infrastructure in this stage explodes.  In this stage, we see art and luxury.  You see grand state buildings.  The rich build themselves palaces.  Now think of Mr. Vanderbilt’s Biltmore.  Is it not a palace? It should be noted in this stage the schooling of boys is still intentionally rough.  Fortitude and courage and honesty are all priorities.  I would note that American Football was developed during this period to drive those qualities home.

High Noon:   This is the peak of the Nation. It’s the point where the nation goes from growing to dying.   For the US, this was the 1940s.  WWII was won. Evil was defeated, and everyone relaxed.  Money was everywhere. The US was the most powerful nation in the world.  And now, for the first time, we had something to lose, and we noticed we may want to protect it.
The USA is not unique. No nation or empire are, their inevitable protestations notwithstanding. The historical trends are clear, and it is only a matter of time before China replaces the USA as the leading global power. The intriguing question that remains to be settled is whether China will resist the call of empire or not, although history strongly suggests that it will eventually succumb to the temptation to rule over others as most other powerful nations before it have.

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Blogger Guy Incognito December 23, 2019 9:43 AM  

How much (in your estimation) of the current fracturing in the US is the result of China?

They certainly sell us the instruments of our own destruction.

Blogger Nate December 23, 2019 9:45 AM  

china is arguably in the same stage the US is in. their cycle has just been profoundly condenced.

look to someone that is off the radar right now. like... Hungary or india... or korea

Blogger Nate December 23, 2019 9:46 AM  

plus we have to look at the coming EU collapse and try to guess how that will effect the cycle. makes me think it will make the US crash a little softer than otherwise expected.

Blogger John Rockwell December 23, 2019 9:56 AM  

Empires have their basis on this:

"1What causes conflicts and quarrels among you? Don’t they come from the passions at war within you?

2You crave what you do not have; you kill and covet, but are unable to obtain it. You quarrel and fight. You do not have, because you do not ask.

3And when you do ask, you do not receive, because you ask with wrong motives, that you may squander it on your pleasures.

4You adulteresses! Do you not know that friendship with the world is hostility toward God? Therefore, whoever desires to be a friend of the world renders himself an enemy of God.

5Or do you think the Scripture says without reason that the Spirit He caused to dwell in us yearns with envy?

6But He gives us more grace. This is why it says:

“God opposes the proud,

but gives grace to the humble.”

James 4:1-6

Focus on God. And screw the status of one's own nation among the nations. There is nothing to prove save for righteousness in the sight of God.

Why should a Christian Nation care about a seat at the cool kids club?

Why should we care about being a great nation in the sight of others?

Let us please God and let this be the Nation's number 1 goal. Riches and fame is nothing aside from our reward at the Judgment Seat of Christ.

Blogger James Dixon December 23, 2019 10:00 AM  

> ...and it is only a matter of time before China replaces the USA as the leading global power.

That's obviously what China foresees and expects. But the best laid plans of mice and men...

China will definitely be the regional power in the area, but whether their global plans will be achieved is anyone's guess.

Blogger 351wsl December 23, 2019 10:05 AM  

Is China not already answering the call to empire, what with their "new silk road" and colonization of Africa?

Blogger Dan Karelian December 23, 2019 10:11 AM  

The US - China dichotomy is less interesting than looking at China's power on the world stage on it's own.
The CCP regime will collapse but the question is what will come afterwards. Splintering or unification under a new regime with it's debt wiped out by death and destruction?
Traditionally imperialism by low trust people abroad doesn't last that long before civil conflicts tear the supposedly cohesive regime apart. Examples such as the Arabic Caliphates and various Steppe Empires illustrate this, though there were many other factors too.

China may still colonize and settle Africa since the natives there are too tribal, unorganized, low IQ etc. to defend themselves. But mainland control won't last even in that case.
Were that to happen it would lead to a potentially Latin American esk mixture of the African and the Chinese, marking demographic changes so drastic as to potentially place the Sub-Saharan region as a contender to Europe and more so than the Arabic world, after say two or three centuries.
Africa is probably doomed to be subdued at some point by some higher IQ civilization much like the Americas. Europeans had their chance but got too competitive and arrogant amongst themselves, leaving future openings for others in the abandoned frontier.
The West will not be in a better position to attempt to reassert it's hegemony or preserve it's independence if Sinitic civilization indeed is to reach from the Cape to the Sahara or even northwards to the Mediterranean.

Another point is to realize that once the US is no longer a player on the world stage, Sino-Russian relations will develop into hostilities to some extent or another. Especially over Central Asia but possibly over the Qing-lost Amur region as well.
Russia would be wise to begin developing the Far East of it's territory demographically if it truly wants be a Eurasian great power and counter China's possible future dreams and fantasies.
Nicholas II had such plans and even further plans to colonize all of Manchuria and even Korea but that was halted by the British built, trained and financed Japanese fleet.
In any case Russia should not be counted out provided that they can overcome the disease of modernity and return to strong natural growth of their nation, which will be a necessary fertilizer for any significant Russian ascendancy in the future.

Blogger Daniel December 23, 2019 10:12 AM  

The only way China goes into Imperial mode out of rhythm to fit the above pattern is for it to be China but "not-China." In other words, Han Africa. But the Han are not a small and unified people with a large landmass to conquer, but the subset of Han in Africa could be. So, Afro-Hans conquer, marry natives at first, but then become attractive mates to the minority of marriageable Han women from back home, and they import them. This will eventually mean a political break with China.

So I think any notions of a "Chinese" Empire would be better described as Han-African.

Blogger Westfork December 23, 2019 10:15 AM  

Has an empire ever expanded during a period where its population fertility has not been above replacement? On the one hand, China's low fertility should hold it back. On the other hand, its abortion-twisted male to female ratio should give it an unhealthy incentive to expand.

I think Israel should be in the conversation for next empire as well.

Blogger WillBound December 23, 2019 10:18 AM  

Worth remembering, as Glubb well knew, that the height of the British Empire came a century or more after it had lost its American colonies.

Blogger Johnny December 23, 2019 10:22 AM  

>>plus we have to look at the coming EU collapse...

Depends on how it happens. If it goes along like Brexit apparently is, all to the good for us. A big blowup is apt to produce a lot of spillover, and we are not financially or socially set to take stress. A bad business if it happens.

Blogger Gulo Gulo December 23, 2019 10:26 AM  

India is a shit hole..literally. Still has the caste system and their beauracracy makes our .gov look efficient. I've heard its hell to try and do business there.

Blogger Firewire December 23, 2019 10:30 AM  

The buffers of the Atlantic and Pacific will allow a softer landing the Europe's.

Blogger Oswald December 23, 2019 10:38 AM  

In the future, a small nation that was able to become more advanced than everyone else could possibly dominate the world. I would not right off Europe, Iran, South Korea, Japan or even Israel to make a play for dominance because they had a achieved a certain level of technological supremacy. Now obviously, the money would be on China to become dominate, but that is not a forgone conclusion. Not in a world with nuclear weapons.

Blogger nbfdmd December 23, 2019 10:56 AM  

@1: I tend to agree. I think the thing to look for is the internal strength and coherence of a nation. For this, I see Poland, or Slavic countries more generally (with the exception of Russia), looking poised for an expansion.

But the next REALLY big one won't be on Earth. It'll be the late 21st/early 22nd century Mars civilization coming to dominate all off-world military and commercial activity.

Blogger The Scribe December 23, 2019 10:58 AM  

It's fitting the article has a picture of Thomas Cole's "Course of Empire: Destruction" featured in it. He painted a complementary series on the personal level called "The Voyage of Life." I have a calendar of Cole's work on my library wall, and attempt to explain both series to my children. They're a little too young to appreciate it, but you plant the seeds.

I glumly marvel how the US and the West continue to limp along as they do, just like a puny, sinful man like me continues to limp along. I think of us as the late days of the Kingdom of Judah, bad and getting worse, but God still sighs and says, "For the sake of my servant David ...."

God welcomes repentance, but you still need to take your medicine.

Honesty if this breaking point ever comes in my lifetime, I don't see the US or West yielding to some emergent new power, like China; they're surrounded by peoples that don't like them and have serious demographic issues of their own. Now, someone said, "The future of the world is religious, unfortunately, that religion will be Islam." Maybe so, but the Muslim world, absent the Ottomans, was largely at its own throat from the beginning.

No, I fear as soon as the edifice of civilization is finally stripped away, we'll see centuries of vast stagnation and a thousand little wildfires. Maybe out of Eastern Europe or the American Northwest something good with sprout from the ruins.

Blogger Doktor Jeep December 23, 2019 11:00 AM  

I see it as opportunity. Chances for new ideas, new tribes, and taking the best of the old and leaving the chaff behind.

Blogger Tallen December 23, 2019 11:15 AM  

look to someone that is off the radar right now. like... Hungary or india... or korea

Perhaps Japan will rise again.

Blogger JamesB.BKK December 23, 2019 11:24 AM  

Isn't there a rule based on observation that past imperial peoples don't get repeats?

Blogger Stephen December 23, 2019 11:26 AM  

High Noon: This is the peak of the Nation. It’s the point where the nation goes from growing to dying. For the US, this was the 1940s.

Nary a Boomer gamete in sight.

Blogger Jason P December 23, 2019 11:39 AM  

Glubb's cycle certainly fits the USA.

I've been wondering for awhile though, aren't Ashkenazi Jews in this same cycle?

Outburst begins in the 1880's with their immigration to the west.

Conquest begins in 1917 and lasts through the 1960's. The hard end of which is the Yom Kippur war.

Commerce begins in the 1970s as America's manufacturing sector begins to be strip mined.

High Noon is the 'Global War on Terror' when they made America dance like a puppet for their interests... Which would mean we just passed over the crest of 'peak jew' ...and it's all down hill from here for them.

This would also fit with Ron Unz's observation in his 'myth of meritocracy' essay that Jews are far less represented Among national merit semi-finalists than they were just a few decades ago.

Blogger Dan Karelian December 23, 2019 11:42 AM  

America will have splintered into smaller pieces even if (((the hats)) and the bike thieves were kept out and the 1965 act or anything like it would have been prevented. The Civil War proved as much.
It could have lasted centuries longer in that case like the Roman empire, with possibly multiple civil wars of its own.

Regardless posterity America was always many nations on the East Coast and heterogeneous entities like the United States of America were destined to break into more homogeneous entities.

Korea has the IQ, the social trust (more or less) and the scale to become potentially imperial except that it is confined in between China, Russia and Japan and is therefore destined to remain a second tier power, just like Norway, Poland and Hungary.

India has immense scale but it is too low IQ, low trust and multiethnic like Brazil.

Blogger Vaughan Williams December 23, 2019 11:56 AM  

I see the fall of ISIS as evidence that most Muslims don't actually want to live in a Muslim world. They need Christian friends so they can "accidentally" eat pork and drink wine.

Blogger Out of Nod December 23, 2019 12:13 PM  

"...maybe out of the American Northwest"

Maybe. On the ground, I can see it going either way at this point

Blogger Vaughan Williams December 23, 2019 12:22 PM  

@19 the rule about no repeats only really applies to nations that lose their genetic "seed corn". China and Japan seem like the only candidates to have escaped that trap.

Blogger Poco December 23, 2019 12:58 PM  

It's mexico man

Blogger Jack Amok December 23, 2019 1:21 PM  

china is arguably in the same stage the US is we have to look at the coming EU collapse and try to guess how that will effect the cycle. makes me think it will make the US crash a little softer than otherwise expected.

Yeah, it's an interesting thing when the empire becomes captured by globalists. They try to amortize failure across multiple lands, which just means everything tends to crash at the same time. Literally a house of cards where every piece is propping up another piece and being propped up itself. Nothing of theirs can support itself.

China isn't run by the globalists, but it let itself become addicted to their lucre. They thought they could partner with the globalists to be the factory nation, but that requires markets, and their people are not responding well to slowing growth. Contraction will be positively riotous - as is their history. They will collapse too, as they've done many times.

Blogger Theproductofafineeduction December 23, 2019 1:42 PM  


Maybe out of Eastern Europe or the American Northwest something good with sprout from the ruins.

Something good will sprout somewhere, it is assured. Deus Vult.

Blogger Meanoldbasterd December 23, 2019 1:53 PM  

In 2015 one of my soldiers blurted "why are we bothering with this?" During some training exercise I was being forced to implement. I asked a follow up question and it was evident that he was asking about the defence of the nation and or the ar,y in general and not just what we happened to be doing. I told the whole platoon to split into squads and go to the classroom, I printed one copy of Sir John Glubb Pashas essay and told them they had 30 minutes to read it over and write down questions and then we'd have a discussion.
This was a platoon of 35M Intel weenies btw, I was a former 19D as well as a 35M.
The nickel version was that I drew a list of the stages on the board and drew an arrow to the age of decadence and wrote "you are here" and an arrow to the age of pioneers/outburst and wrote "ISIS is here"
Needless to say there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth at such a suggestion!
About half of them agreed with me, but no one had any real solutions.
The guy who initially started the whole thing blurted that he was doing the best thing he knew hhow by getting his physics degree and trying to get a good job. Nom he didn't plan on ed very getting married because only chumps let bitches get ahold of them and drain their wallets etc...

In any case I got called into the commanders office to explain what I was doing because she thought it was "weird" lol

Blogger Ricky Rari December 23, 2019 1:55 PM  

It's actually Southeast Asia, really. Singapore and Taiwan are already on top of the world and have nowhere to go but down. SE Asia, on the other hand, is on the rise.

Blogger The Deuce December 23, 2019 2:17 PM  

Collapse and civil unrest sooner rather than later may be the best thing that could possibly happen to America in order for it to recapture its essence and have a future as itself. When the gravy train dries up and America becomes an impoverished and violent shithole, the rats and orcs and other parasites will flee the burning wreckage, and only those who love America as their home enough to stay and fight for it will remain.

Blogger IAMSpartacus0000 December 23, 2019 2:36 PM  

Not so sure on China being the next as they are living off human material mass instead of growth. If that changes then I could see it.

Who is expanding in terms of people that is also increasing in means of production and military might?

India? Turkey?

Blogger rumpole5 December 23, 2019 3:05 PM  

The only points where China was an expansionist entity was when it was conquered by, and became part of, some other expansionist nation, examples being conquest by the Mongols and later by the Manchus. The Han seem content to sit behind their walls in the middle kingdom and let the barbarians outside live their barbaric lives.

Blogger Crew December 23, 2019 3:08 PM  

It's actually Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is not a single country and is full of rivalries!

Blogger Avalanche December 23, 2019 3:29 PM  

@8 "Afro-Hans conquer, marry natives"

But a high-performance low-trust people, marrying and reproducing with low-performance low-trust people? Regression to the mean, the high performance of the Han in africa cannot outweigh the low IQ and tribal violence they will be admitting into their new mixed "nation." A group can work around low trust: maybe not efficiently, but effectively *enough* to maintain a civilization. But low performance? Is not that always and permanently destructive?

Have you not watched that viral video of the Chinese overseer/corporate mgr ripping a new one for the african 'supervisor' for the africans ongoing destruction of their trains? Both active and by lack of maintenance?

Blogger Ominous Cowherd December 23, 2019 3:31 PM  

In Glubb's framework, has there been a case in history in which some hardship short of collapse reset the clock from Decadence to an earlier stage? Could a religious revival or a Great Depression push us from our current state of Decadence back to Commerce, for example?

Blogger VFM #7634 December 23, 2019 3:40 PM  

The next major world power?

It might be China, but if China chokes, then perhaps Israel. It's the only industrialized country that has a birth rate that's above replacement -- above the world average now, in fact -- and shows no signs of falling, indicating civilizational confidence.

If it's neither, then the answer would be nobody, or at least nobody that we know about right now.

Blogger Brett baker December 23, 2019 3:52 PM  

Maybe we're in our version of the "3rd Century Crisis"? We're going to get a bit of a reprieve, and the big fall doesn't happen for a century more.

Blogger Primus Pilus December 23, 2019 4:02 PM  

Jason P wrote:I've been wondering for awhile though, aren't Ashkenazi Jews in this same cycle?

Yes. That's because the rise and fall of the global US Empire /is/ the rise and fall of the Ashkenazi Empire.

Blogger Latigo3 December 23, 2019 5:15 PM  

People may not like it, but truth is truth. Our empire is no exception to what is happening, it has happened and will continue to happen to every empire.

Blogger Zach December 23, 2019 5:21 PM  

Joseph Tainter says the Byzantine Empire is the only one he found to have successfully retrenched and rejuvenated in the face of crises rather than doubling down to complete failure. Bought themselves a few more centuries that way.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd December 23, 2019 5:50 PM  

Zach wrote:Joseph Tainter says the Byzantine Empire is the only one he found to have successfully retrenched and rejuvenated in the face of crises rather than doubling down to complete failure. Bought themselves a few more centuries that way.
I'm about to start reading Norwich's Apogee book. I'll try to keep this theme in mind as I go.

Blogger Akulkis December 23, 2019 6:16 PM  


"But the next REALLY big one won't be on Earth. It'll be the late 21st/early 22nd century Mars civilization coming to dominate all off-world military and commercial activity."

With each meal costing more than a year's worth of productivity to transport from earth, there will never be a significant population on Mars unless those of us on Earth are willing to pay through the nose to support it.

The atmosphere is thin. The planet as a whole lacks water. Even IF you're able to goose up the atmospheric oxygen percentages, where is the hydrogen going to come from to make water?

The idea of colonizating Mars completely ignores the fact that human occupation on Mars could never be self-sufficient even for food and water. And let's not forget how are they going to keep themselves from literally dieing of hypothermia on top dying by starvation and dehydration.

A colony on the bottom of the Marianas Trench has more viability. At least the only thing such a colony would be able to provide themselves with food and water, though likely not heat.

Blogger Lovekraft December 23, 2019 6:20 PM  

MAD ensured the cold war stayed cold (although skirmishes and proxy wars continued throughout).

So whats the MAD principle re China and the U.S? Makes you wonder if the west's strategy involves merging the two cultures so that either party would not easily claim to be fighting the evil empire.

Blogger Lovekraft December 23, 2019 6:21 PM  

o/t but I just was one of Barr's sealed indictments has just been unsealed.

I'm pretty sure that there have been others so others can correct me, but afaik this is the first time this have been done.

It's begun

Blogger Akulkis December 23, 2019 6:31 PM  

"Have you not watched that viral video of the Chinese overseer/corporate mgr ripping a new one for the african 'supervisor' for the africans ongoing destruction of their trains? Both active and by lack of maintenance?"

Was this, by chance, the Washington D.C. subway system?

Blogger Dan Karelian December 23, 2019 6:31 PM  

Something to note on the thousand year reich of the east:

"During the first decades of soviet government, research in Byzantology was cut off, and then officially banned. More than that: just in case, the Bolsheviks repressed all Byzantologists remaining in Russia; only a few were able to flee abroad.

Research in Byzantology was re-opened in Russia by a decision from the highest governmental levels. In 1943, at Stalin’s orders, the Institute of Byzantology was created, and a corresponding cathedra in the Moscow State University was opened."

Blogger Crew December 23, 2019 7:28 PM  

@45: This is more interesting!

Hunter Biden Subject of Multiple Criminal Investigations Related to “Fraud, Money Laundering and Counterfeiting Scheme”

Blogger John Rockwell December 23, 2019 7:46 PM  

India superpooper 2020.

Blogger John Rockwell December 23, 2019 7:53 PM  

Ending the caste system is the 1st step:

This enables downward mobility. That plus execution in regards to violent criminals.

Slaying bandits and highwaymen 1st. Then when investigative skills improve. On to all murderers both female and male.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd December 23, 2019 8:07 PM  

@45 Lovecraft, the indictment was issued 9 November '19, unsealed on the date of the article. After three years, there were 130,000 sealed indictments. Now it's 1 down, 129,999 to go.

I realize the greatest storm starts with a single drop of rain, but so far, all we see is a single drop of rain. I'll get excited when the high winds and lightning start.

Blogger John Rockwell December 23, 2019 10:56 PM  


This is in reply to the comment on India.

Blogger Akulkis December 24, 2019 1:06 AM  

For it to work without trying to use the USMC to arrest over 1,000,000 bad actors in one night, the best plan is for the first move to be something which starves the beast. That means attacking the bag men who funnel the money into it. My only disappointment is that this is only 1 indictment naming 8 people, rather than, say, 30 indictments rounding up 250 of them.

Do some reading in how the Medellin cocaine cartel was rolled up by Columbian law enforcement with tremendous technical assistance and intel via Delta Force (this was Delta's first "real world" mission) and their sister aviation unit, the 150th SOAR (special operations aviation regiment).

They literally started at the bottom -- the various people with nobody below them, so that once removed, there was nobody to promote into the spot. After, and ONLY after the lowest tier was rolled up, the they would move up to working on the next cycle.

Think of destroying a pyramid from the ground up. And after a couple of the lowest layers are removed, it literally has not even hypothetical contact with the ground.

This is a proven method, and I think that the first level has already been taken out over the last couple of years. Remember all of those regional massed pedophile arrests. They weren't focusing on some random dudes who were molested as children and have become perverted as a result of it. They were rounding up those with behind-the-scenes influence over politicians or law-enforcement (monetary or otherwise), plus the choke points in the distribution networks.

Cut those off, and the amount of pizza imagery floating around drops precipitously, the neural pathways for those with such proclivities aren't being reinforced, and eventually, those child-sex seeking pathways in such individuals atrophy for lack of reward and use. Not completely, but substantially.

With the pedo layer rounded up, the Dept. of Justice is now going after the next level of monetary support and malignant influence.

When they get to the top, it's going to be glorious.

Blogger Kiwi December 24, 2019 8:01 AM  

Or we could go with Quigley's stages, which gives two options for Western Civilisation, be destroyed by the enemy or reorganise in a peripheral of the existing empire, as we have uniquely done three times before.

If you're in a peripheral, Canada, NZ, Aus, et al then you lag behind in the decay and are ideal spots for reorganisation to take place. The united states might fall but the new states/countries will still be there and more gutsy than before. Western civilisation does not need to have its command post in American, it just has to have one.

My advice to those in American and countries who orbit the giant, is to start growing and start saving seed, primarily those for feeding stock and medicinal supplies, eg corn and poppies. No fancy stuff. Store half the seeds you grow and grow the rest. Look what essentials you're importing. Choose the heritage seeds that we've used before, they grow true and have been stress tested by our ancestors. Pad the seed banks. Read how we did it. Gun up.

My advice to China, worry about your own food.

It's Christmas here now, Merry Christmas everyone and God Bless. Remember, as Vox says, morale wins wars.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd December 24, 2019 8:34 AM  

Kiwi wrote:My advice to those in American and countries who orbit the giant, is to start growing and start saving seed,...
Concur. No downside to any of that.

Blogger Doug Cranmer December 24, 2019 12:42 PM  

Among the ancestral heartland Canadians there is a feeling of having far more in common and common interests with the similar Americans than with the liberal and paper Canadians in Toronto or Vancouver. There is potential there for true allies.

Blogger Akulkis December 24, 2019 9:07 PM  

@56 Doug Cranmer

From the Midwest in the US, the feeling is mutual.

Blogger Vaughan Williams December 26, 2019 5:38 AM  

@56 there isn't much time, the next generation isn't being born in sufficient numbers. Another few years and heritage Canadians will be like heritage Romans were in the time of Augustus Caesar.

Blogger damaris.tighe December 27, 2019 3:44 AM  

I love storms. Bring it on.

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