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Tuesday, January 07, 2020

Missile Command is not war

I would not advise overreacting to the Iranian response to the recent US missile strikes.
Iran struck back at the United States for the killing of a top Iranian general early Wednesday, firing a series of ballistic missiles at two Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops in a major escalation that brought the two longtime foes closer to war.... Iran has started its “second round” of attacks against bases holding U.S. troops in Iraq, the Tehran-based Tasnim news agency said on Wednesday. The second round of attacks started an hour after the first phase took place, the agency reported.
This is not what countries do when they have any intention of engaging in actual war. The Iranian military has more than 500,000 active troops and there are no reports of them being deployed aggressively in the direction of Iraq or Saudi Arabia.

This is just tit-for-tat. If Iran was serious, they would be deploying divisions and shutting down all naval traffic in the Gulf. Until they start doing that, I wouldn't even bother paying the whole thing any attention.

Labels:

62 Comments:

Blogger Azimus January 07, 2020 9:20 PM  

Iraqi gov now claiming to be responding to this - is this all just a ploy to restart the 1980-88 Iraq-Iran war?

Blogger Stephen January 07, 2020 9:20 PM  

Agree.
Wathing Tucker I just said out loud to no one at home, "I'm bored."

Blogger JovianStorm January 07, 2020 9:21 PM  

Iran's posturing and threats to other Arab countries is very telling. They're basically alienating themselves from other places in the region and attempting to dominate other governments by rattling militia sabers at them.

A coalition of Arab countries couldn't take out Israel but they'd roll right over Iran.

Trump was smart to foment intra-Arab hostilities as they won't bother us if they're busy with each other.

Blogger Stephen January 07, 2020 9:23 PM  

*watching

Blogger Barbarossa January 07, 2020 9:25 PM  

I would seriously doubt these are "ballistic" missiles as that would truly be a provocation. In all likelihood these are unguided, unspotted Chinese-made 107mm rockets that have periodically annoyed troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for well over a decade. After a few weeks in country, I didn't even bother making the trip to the nearest bunker. You were just as likely to run into the missile on the walk there as it was to run into you if you had just stayed put.

If this is the best they've got, the Iranian leaders are either engaged in some home-front "we showed them, we did" PR or they have serious doubts as to whether the regular Army (not the IRG) would willingly march across the border. Either way, it would be a serious mistake to overreact to this.

Blogger Johnny January 07, 2020 9:27 PM  

There was all this talk about Trump killing whats-his-name and whether it was legal or not. I wonder, is it all legal for them to fire missiles at our base? Anybody going to talk about that?

I suspect that with some frequency these missile attacks are leaked ahead of the attack so that everybody gets to their bunker or whatever, and not much chance of serious damage. The whole point of the thing is that it is a display for propaganda purposes. We are probably more given to that than other groups.

Blogger Ransom Smith January 07, 2020 9:29 PM  

Iran's posturing and threats to other Arab countries is very telling. They're basically alienating themselves from other places in the region
That's not exactly new.
The Middle East looks like it's breaking back to its normal historical divide.
Persians in the East, Arabs in the South and Turks in the west.
The weapons and names change, but the people rarely do.

Blogger Ostar January 07, 2020 9:30 PM  

If no Americans were killed, then mocking the Iranians for incompetence like only Trump can would be a great response

Blogger Ska_Boss January 07, 2020 9:45 PM  

We assassinated their top military general, they retaliated and caused some property damage. Happening cancelled.

Blogger Sam Gem January 07, 2020 9:46 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Scott January 07, 2020 9:49 PM  

The Iraqi government will if we don't.

Blogger Crew January 07, 2020 9:56 PM  

I wonder if Iran is the home of the Cabal as AC claims ...

Blogger Jay Will January 07, 2020 9:59 PM  

Trumps tweeted a-ok. Its another Syria-like bombing, likely nobody got killed, all for show. There's no way he tweet that if any American died.

I wouldn't be surprised that this guy got killed ages ago and the Iranians covered it up because they were afraid of the fallout for them in Iran. This gave them an out to save face.

Looks like he's continuing the peace moves.

Blogger D. January 07, 2020 10:03 PM  

Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1214739853025394693

Blogger jarheadljh January 07, 2020 10:03 PM  

Trump tweeted out about hitting 52 targets the other day after Iran said that it could hit 35 targets in America. Q=17, 35+17=52. Then today Iran sends an seeming invitation to annihilate them. Not a single US casualty, almost every missile shot down before detonating. This is theatre, but we don't have all the info to make sense of it.

Blogger jarheadljh January 07, 2020 10:09 PM  

Would not be surprised to find out that the Iranians had sent a warning ahead of time like Trump did before the Syria airbase strike.

Blogger Katechon January 07, 2020 10:09 PM  

Agreed.
I was discussing earlier today with a Syrian who had fought alongside the FSA and subsequently al-Nusra (despite being a secularist), and we had reached the some conclusion.

Blogger Ghog January 07, 2020 10:12 PM  

Yup

Blogger Lazarus January 07, 2020 10:20 PM  

Meh.
From Infogalactic:

Since 2001, Palestinian militants have launched thousands of rocket and mortar attacks on Israel from the Gaza Strip as part of the continuing Arab–Israeli conflict.

This is de rigueur in the middle East. Its like shaking hands or nodding to each other across the room. Entirely for domestic consumption.

Speaking of domestic conduct:

At least 50 people were killed in a stampede as tens of thousands of mourners packed streets for the funeral of a slain Iranian military commander in his hometown on Tuesday, forcing his burial to be delayed by several hours, state media said.

These people need to demonstrate their zeal to such an extent it is counterproductive.

Blogger DJ | AMDG January 07, 2020 10:22 PM  

I don’t watch Tucker Carlson much so I don’t know if he’s as often so transparent as he was here, but he skewers “somebody” and their preferred nation when he asks the question of what an American first foreign policy would look like. Watch starting at 1:08:50 as he asks his what if question.

https://youtu.be/cxlx0HBOHzw

Blogger Sam Gem January 07, 2020 10:36 PM  

Final analysis on qresearch:

On 1.3.20 patriots take out Iran's General Soleimani, taking the deep state by surprise.

1.3.20 corresponds to drop 1320: https://qmap.pub/read/1320

> Today, EVIL lost control / leverage of Iran.
> Today, POTUS took control of Iran.

That drop was in 2018. The explanation is a whole other rabbit hole. Very precise plan or looking glass tech?

Assassination and Trump's strong show of force cause Imams to shit their pants and immediately come to the negotiating table. Iran coordinates with Trump through back channels. Q drop 3729 in Dec. "Back channels are necessary." Iran allowed to strike bases that were emptied hours before.

The deal is already done and we are watching the show. Patriots are in control.

Blogger Dark glasses Woody January 07, 2020 10:37 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger cecilhenry January 07, 2020 10:49 PM  

If the Iranians were really at war, and wanted to show it, they would attack Americans in America or targets around the world.


THAT would however produce an enormous and violent response from the US that would do great damage and aim at the Iranian leadership.

The Iranians won't do that, but their (((enemies))) in the region would love another false flag to create that hostility.

AS they've done it many times before, be on the watch for it.

PNAC preceded the 9-11 attacks by one year.




Blogger Doktor Jeep January 07, 2020 10:54 PM  

I'll bet a bottle of rum and a case of ammo that this is the deep state launching the missiles.
We voted for a difference, we got it. A democrat aids and abets and sends money and cover. I need no details. Republicans - read neocons as usual - send in troops by the thousands, make Israel feel safe and give friends and family no-bid military contracts.
Then invite in a million or so "refugees" to turn more cites and states blue.
Lots of people are pissed. Neocons are not getting their Israel uber alles. Military industrial complex is not getting their big bucks. Democrats are not getting their new voters. All this cutting the head off a snake and all that. How ... how.... gauche! This is not how America is supposed to operate!
And this is what we voted for.

BTW I secretly - up to now - think that Trump's uncle got hold of Tesla's time machine.

Blogger God Emperor Memes January 07, 2020 10:57 PM  

So, the God Emperor has managed to bait the Mullahs into revealing their launch sites/capabilities, at the expense of a couple of unimportant bases?

Blogger ZhukovG January 07, 2020 11:04 PM  

I agree with Vox. This is likely just geopolitical kabuki with a great pyrotechnics show. I would not be surprised if we had been warned by Iran ahead of time. Likely using Iraq as the messenger.

Not unlike our warning of Syria, through Russia, of our missile attacks.

As for the balance of power. There is no coalition of Arab countries capable of threatening Iran. The Turks could certainly go toe to toe with them, but I doubt they would want to.

I believe this is all just a prelude to the GE declaring a pox upon all Middle Eastern houses and withdrawing our troops.

Blogger Crush Limbraw January 07, 2020 11:07 PM  

There once was a woman,

with 3 kids named Mat, Pat, and Tat.

She found it was fun in the breeding,

but hell in the feeding when there was no....tit for Tat

Blogger Balkan Yankee January 07, 2020 11:09 PM  

An Iranian swing and a miss designed to appease Iranian popular opinion without provoking a scorching U.S. response.

TGE is both lucky and good.

Blogger Glaivester January 07, 2020 11:38 PM  

@8 And if Iran wants to pretend that it killed some Americans (apparently it is claiming that it got 30) then so much the better, because then they can claim that they got their revenge and de-escalate. Trump seems willing to de-escalate, with his "all is well!" tweet, which is good.

Blogger Nate January 07, 2020 11:40 PM  

extremely weak response from iran. ignore it.

Blogger Alexandros January 07, 2020 11:40 PM  

Sounds like they're completely powerless to retaliate when countries commit acts of war against them. Toothless responses to save face is probably for the best for both Iran and the United States though.

Blogger Silly but True January 07, 2020 11:46 PM  

We are shocked — shocked, we tell them — and awed.

Provided we were prepared, whom do we address the thank-you note for assisting us in dismantling our bases in Iraq?

Blogger Unknown January 07, 2020 11:51 PM  

I remember seeing the headline "10s of missiles launched" and thought "weak"

Blogger Andy'scurious January 07, 2020 11:52 PM  

Great response but um-needed and ridiculously inflammatory.
Trump would do well tweeting Ricky Gervais a congratulations for his performance and proving to the masses once again the the establishment and media are being managed and controlled by blackmailing pedophiles.

Blogger Johnny January 08, 2020 12:24 AM  

I don't know that any of us know enough about the politics of Iraq to know for sure who is running what. Apparently either the locals or Iran. And as Iran fired the missiles, I suppose they are the advisory. Anyway, the ball is in their court, time for us to let them decide. The missile attack just a face saving act of belligerence.

And I am beginning to think that 'we will pull our troops out' thing was real, a hint of the possibilities of the situation, not a firm commitment intended to be made public. And again, their turn to respond. As I doubt they want war and we are giving them breathing room, so far so good.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd January 08, 2020 12:50 AM  

Iran is shooting missiles. Are they being careful not to hit us? Al Jazzera said there were no reports of casualties.

Blogger anorganicbear January 08, 2020 1:06 AM  

"Defending America's troops" sure looks a lot like calling down missiles on America's troops.

Blogger Clay January 08, 2020 3:08 AM  



I get so sick of the "threat" from the Iranians, Persians, Arabs, Muslim Sunni/Shia to destroy the US, "mother of all battles" type crap. They can't beat each other, as history proves. The fact the media plays this crap up is also disgusting. Those terrorists best chances to hurt us, is to leave them alone, and let them plan and choose their attacks in leisure.They have no military offense. I see where Iran participated in "naval operations" with Russia and China. I wonder if they took turns towing around the Iranian "navy".

I hear those Dems talking about "war" with Iran. I don't know why, but whenever war talk comes around, it reminds me of this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MV_Wilhelm_Gustloff

That's war, people.

Blogger bodenlose Schweinerei January 08, 2020 3:39 AM  

is this all just a ploy to restart the 1980-88 Iraq-Iran war?

If it is, the Iranians are led by actual, certifiable retards. Then again, a vicious bloodletting that achieves absolutely nothing in the end is pretty much the entire recent history of the Middle East in a nutshell, so I guess they would just be going with what they know.

Blogger Akulkis January 08, 2020 3:45 AM  

@5

"I would seriously doubt these are "ballistic" missiles as that would truly be a provocation."

There's two kinds of missiles:
Guided missiles -- steerable flight path.
and
Ballistic -- once the motor cuts off, its flight path is determined SOLELY by gravity and air resistance (drag).

Just because something isn't an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) doesn't mean it's not a ballistic missile. It just means it doesn't have enough fuel to by launched across an ocean.

Blogger Jim January 08, 2020 4:36 AM  

This limp wristed response makes me think that maybe Khamenei wanted Soleimani gone and had a hand in the setup.

Blogger jkmack January 08, 2020 5:31 AM  

It all depends on casualty count. If Iran is just spamming a couple of bases and tearing up as much tarmac as they are building structures, then it is a non event.

If on the other hand, only american facilities were struck, or officer quarters, club, intel gathering comm shack or drone command center, and they actually degraded operations for more than 8 or 12 hours, then that puts a different face on the attack.

I dont expect to be told the truth about it, so until I start hearing some aloha snackbar yells on my back Forty, I am going to keep on keeping on.

Blogger elad sputnik January 08, 2020 5:36 AM  

I wonder who didn't make it to Kiev today. The General who was likely a threat to his own government meddling in the Iraqi government gets martyred, a bunch of deep state spooks get in a plane crash? Now that's pod racing. With a fireworks show for the kids.

Blogger Lazarus January 08, 2020 5:41 AM  

All this is going on while Saudi Arabia is trying to extricate itself from Yemen. I wonder if it is related.


Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump
16h16 hours ago

Had a very good meeting with @kbsalsaud of Saudi Arabia. We discussed Trade, Military, Oil Prices, Security, and Stability in the Middle East!


Khalid bin Salman is in charge of getting a peace deal worked out.

Blogger Gettimothy January 08, 2020 5:51 AM  

37 anorganicbear January 08, 2020 1:06 AM
"Defending America's troops" sure looks a lot like calling down missiles on America's troops."

The incoming schill response is 4th tier too.

I havent had this much fun since Jamie Lee Curtis shit her panties when the Hawaian missle alert went down.

Blogger Brett baker January 08, 2020 6:04 AM  

Of course the media is sounding idiotic. They need a war to boost their ratings.

Blogger Sam Gem January 08, 2020 6:15 AM  

Also, here's information on the classified earthquake tech used to take out nuclear sites in NK and now Iran.

On 11/11/17 a seismic wave rippled around the earth. It lasted for over 20 minutes in 17 second intervals. It is known as the “Mayotte Mystery Wave”. Nobody knew what it was or could explain it.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2018/11/strange-earthquake-waves-rippled-around-world-earth-geology/

Then Q drop 2527: https://qmap.pub/read/2527

Think WAVES.
WW?
Define 'unified'
[17]
SAT knockout forced new CLAS tech

This was a worldwide signal by Q that patriots are now in control.

Blogger Clay January 08, 2020 6:36 AM  

I know, I've been saying it forever it seems,...but the Iranian "navy" is toast.

Blogger Rajadog20 January 08, 2020 6:43 AM  

No casualties. 0. Coincidence?

Blogger James Dixon January 08, 2020 6:45 AM  

They apparently didn't get any Americans with their missles (Iraqis may be another matter). But they apparently did (accidentally?) take out a 737 taking off from Tehran's airport: https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukrainian-plane-crash-tehran-iran-180-passengers

Blogger Nostromo January 08, 2020 6:50 AM  

Iran is a 3 year old rolling around on the floor having a tantrum. They only way they could actually harm the US is if they effed up the shipping through the straights. And that really only hurts themselves, and Europe. I'm sure the professional military in Iran knows this. The mullahs know they are w as lk im ng on eggshells with Trump, and their domestic unrest. At one point in my naivete I would have said let the C_A handle it, but they are too busy trying to overthrow our own government.

Blogger tublecane January 08, 2020 6:58 AM  

Nice to see the MSM partly anti-war again.

Blogger Salt January 08, 2020 7:14 AM  

Being reported that no targets hit. Face saving tantrum.

Snooze.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan January 08, 2020 7:42 AM  

Not my circus, besides the happiest people in this whole shindig are probably the people closest to the dead warlord.

Blogger Iron Spartan January 08, 2020 8:46 AM  

A surprising number of rockets failed to detonate. Early back channel talk is that most of them weren't even fused.

So Iran gets to say the retaliated, but they also went out of their way to limit casualties (zero) and collateral damage. They get to save face and we get to ignore it.

The MSN is losing their damn mind this morning because Trump hasn't started throwing nukes at Iran like their twisted perception of him says they should be.

Blogger Cataline Sergius January 08, 2020 9:45 AM  

They aren't handing over the black-box.

I beginning to suspect someone in the Iranian Air Force panicked and shot down that airliner.

Blogger Barbarossa January 08, 2020 10:13 AM  

@40

I am very well aware of the types of missiles. A ballistic missile generally is launched on a high arc with initial guidance and targeting. A 107 has none of those characteristics; it's a rocket someone sets up on a rail and prays that it doesn't blow up in his face, goes in somewhat the direction fired and then actually detonates upon arrival. Additionally, the use of the term "ballistic" missile has very much of a connotation, one of strategic or operational level weapons. When 107s are arcing into your FOB, there's no one shouting "Ballistic missile incoming!"

Try to recognize when the media is lying to you even when they're supposedly telling you the truth.

Blogger Alexamenos January 08, 2020 11:28 AM  

It's noteworthy to me how much tbis looks like Trump's bombing of an empty field a couple of years ago. It's like a big wink and a nod.

Blogger Meistergedanken January 08, 2020 11:51 AM  

Looking forward to the upcoming sci-fi anthology: "There Will Be Missile Command."

Blogger Akulkis January 08, 2020 4:21 PM  

@57

"Additionally, the use of the term "ballistic" missile has very much of a connotation, one of strategic or operational level weapons. "

Perhaps in your mind, but not among artillerymen and other military professionals.

Blogger OvergrownHobbit January 09, 2020 1:16 AM  

"Own your own missle command: Buy FMS!"I

Brought to you by the Reagan-era cold war. Cool T-shirt though.

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