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Saturday, February 15, 2020

Tracking the outbreak

Corona-chan at Johns Hopkins

02/15---67091---1527
02/14---64447---1384
02/13---60347---1369
02/12---45214---1116
02/11---43129---1018
02/10---40573----910
02/09---37590----814
02/08---34944----725
02/07---31523----638
02/06---28276----565
02/05---24554----492
02/04---20679----427
02/03---17046----362
02/02---14628----305
01/02---11374----259
31/01----9821----213
30/01----8235----171
29/01----7783----170
28/01----6057----132
27/01----4231----103
26/01----2808-----80
25/01----2117-----56
24/01----1126-----41
23/01-----901-----26
22/01-----651-----25
21/01-----317------6
20/01-----219------4
19/01-----204------3

Spreadsheet image courtesy of Anonymous Conservative. There may actually be some good news here, as the current numbers out of Johns Hopkins, as of end of day 28/01/20, are 6,057 and 132, which, while still ahead of the predicted model, may indicate that the transmission rate is slowing down a little, from 22 percent over to 18 percent over, while the death rate has declined from 45 percent over to 25 percent over. However, it's still too soon to reach any meaningful conclusion.

It's important not to overreact to these statistical models, as you may recall that the Ebola outbreak of 2014 doubled every 4.4 weeks, but the infection rate finally declined and broke the curve in the 9th doubling cycle. So, to know when the coronavirus outbreak is beginning to burn itself out, look for the doubling rate to slow down from its current rate of just over two days.

Alternatively, if it picks up, you may do well to start paying attention to the possibility Corona-chan will be making an appearance closer to you than you might like.

Labels: ,

372 Comments:

1 – 200 of 372 Newer› Newest»
Blogger Doctor Mayhem January 29, 2020 1:00 PM  

Plagues and epidemics are the most powerful eugenic phenomena in the world. Let's hope every major city in the US gets it and gets decimated. Now THAT'S a guaranteed way to MAGA.

But for real. This probably won't go very far and everyone's freaking out for nothing. I'd love to be pleasantly surprised though.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelpia January 29, 2020 1:04 PM  

Good place for data sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

NYT says deaths through through the 22nd were older men, primarily, with attendant health problems and presumably compromised immune systems.

As Vox points out, it's too early to tell is this a SARS or Ebola repeat, or "the big one" a la the 1918 influenza pandemic. Back then of course, facilities were horrible, but the rumor has it that in Wuhan the hospitals are completely swamped. THAT is not a good sign.

One does get the feeling, though, that this is really not very good -- the media quotes from the health experts have this tone of real anxiety. Overreaction or justified fear?

I guess we'll have to wait and see how those spreadsheet cells get filled in.

Blogger Newscaper312 January 29, 2020 1:04 PM  

Hey Vox, what is Italy doing re incoming travel?
Does being in the Shengen Area screw them?

Blogger Scuzzaman January 29, 2020 1:18 PM  

Corona-chan did nothing wrong.

Blogger Crew January 29, 2020 1:24 PM  

I think we can expect the Chines govt to continue to downplay the seriousness and keep the numbers low, even if to try to keep a lid on internal unrest.

Blogger RC January 29, 2020 1:26 PM  

Here is flyover country USA we have a person, presumably a student at the University of Kansas, who's in the hospital with all the symptoms, fresh back from Wuhan. Samples have been sent to the CDC for confirmation. Think how many people this one carrier might have infected on his travels through airports and in his classes. Repeat.

From KC Star:

The Kansas Department of Health and Environment is investigating a Douglas County resident for possible exposure to the novel coronavirus.

The unidentified patient returned to the United States within the last two weeks after traveling from Wuhan City, China, where the virus broke out in December, state health officials said.

The patient is at LMH Health (formerly Lawrence Memorial Hospital), hospital spokeswoman Amy Nothrop confirmed Tuesday.

The patient is not severely ill but is in isolation at the hospital as a precaution, said a statement from Lee Norman, secretary of the state health department.

Blogger David Ray Milton January 29, 2020 1:26 PM  

@KPK

So... you’re saying it’s killing Boomers? Tell me more about this civilization saving virus :)

Blogger Pratisara January 29, 2020 1:29 PM  

This is what it's all about...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/coronavirus-vaccine-will-take-over-year-develop-warns-big-pharma-exec

Blogger Jeroth January 29, 2020 1:30 PM  

Apparently Asians are at more risk than other races. Imagine if China stole an American bio weapon designed to be used against them and accidentally released it on their own people.

Blogger Uncompliant January 29, 2020 1:40 PM  

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

See link for current (as of 1 o'clock-ish Eastern time). 6,152 cases, 132 deaths.


https://twitter.com/BNODesk

This twitter feed has been a good source for quick updates and numbers. This will help fill in the cells of the spreadsheet.

The Anon/Cons. spreadsheet is good for tracking the doubling effect, but other data is important too including the number of "critical" and "serious" cases. Note the high numbers of those in critical condition in China and the absence of those in other nations. Indeed, no "criticals" anywhere besides China. That is a good sign that Boomerpox will not be anything more than flu. Also, there are statistics for "treated and released." As of the 28th, 103 "cures" to 132 deaths. Not sure how to interpret that.

Blogger Nate73 January 29, 2020 1:40 PM  

I tried to calculate R0 for HIV in the past (the average number of new infected created by one infected person), but didn't have much luck calculating it for gays. My hypothesis is that R0 > 1 for gays and R0 < 1 for straights but I've never been able to find a source or citation proving this.

Blogger Uncompliant January 29, 2020 1:44 PM  

sorry, I see that those stats were for 6:30 am ET.

Blogger God Emperor Memes January 29, 2020 1:47 PM  

Captain Trips is here, eh?

Blogger Crew January 29, 2020 1:56 PM  

@9: Even viruses are racist!

Blogger Azimus January 29, 2020 1:56 PM  

@1 What a horrid thing to say.

I doubt that the virus will be following your personal preference as to who will be eliminated.

Besides if this thing is a bioweapon how is this even eugenic? Its a directed weapon designed to kill and defeat the usual precautions... so caution and intelligence are not necessarily advantageous.

Blogger peacefulposter January 29, 2020 2:04 PM  

How many people have it but will never be confirmed because they never went to the doc, thinking it was regular flu? Most of them will recover and nobody will no the difference.

Blogger urthshu January 29, 2020 2:11 PM  

"expect the Chines govt to continue to downplay the seriousness and keep the numbers low, "

They may be keeping them low but I don't see them downplaying the seriousness.

Blogger Fargoth January 29, 2020 2:17 PM  

Fresh organic Thyme and Oregano, throw it in a french press and steep at 180 degrees before ya start sniffling

Blogger bobby January 29, 2020 2:21 PM  

The extremely high death rate was eventually the limiter for Ebola. The lower death rate in the coronavirus might not be a good thing in epidemiologic terms.

Blogger Balam January 29, 2020 2:39 PM  

David Ray Milton wrote:@KPK

So... you’re saying it’s killing Boomers? Tell me more about this civilization saving virus :)


It's the final solution. All those job vacancies, funeral services...job creators!

Blogger Brett baker January 29, 2020 2:45 PM  

Read The Last Centurion for why Americans are less vulnerable to disease.

Blogger Oswald January 29, 2020 3:17 PM  

That is a scary chart. Is having China as the epicenter good or bad for us?

Blogger Akulkis January 29, 2020 3:19 PM  

"It's the final solution. All those job vacancies, funeral services...job creators!"

Gen-X finally getting a chance to undo all of the moronically retarded idiocy of the boomers. That right there will create REAL jobs, and push a bunch of dot Indians back to their subcontinent.

Blogger Gen. Kong January 29, 2020 3:29 PM  

@1 What a horrid thing to say.

What would you expect someone whose handle is "Dr. Mayhem" to post? Some pleasant bromide?? Nothing to worry about here - probably just (((the healers))) at work going about their healin' biz as usual. The CDC no doubt has TOPMEN on the job already. Axis of Kindness to the rescue!

All snark, etc. aside, it's more than breathtakingly stupid to have a bio-weapons research lab located in a major transport hub in a large city. An isolated underground facility in the Gobi desert surrounded by military bases would be a lot more sensible - all entry/exit restricted to foot traffic.

Blogger Crew January 29, 2020 3:29 PM  

OK, now I understand why the CoronaVirus was released.

It was to overshadow the introduction of Dr Who-Wakanda!

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/479492-black-female-doctor-who/

Blogger Robert Schecter January 29, 2020 3:33 PM  

Just another hoax. Bird flu all over again

Blogger CarpeOro January 29, 2020 3:58 PM  

@Brett baker

By John Ringo. I think I recall a thread here on VP where the general American/North European tendency is to maintain more personal space. A European reader commented that wasn't his impression of the America. His experience was colored by the lack of personal space I think is normal in any major metropolitan area, whether it be London, Beijing, or New York. I think it is generally true of smaller city and rural America though. More personal space means less chance of transmission of airborne diseases.

Blogger urthshu January 29, 2020 4:04 PM  

Ixnay on the oomerBays. If they see Death's sickle coming I expect they'll throw a massive fit and destroy everything within reach as some kind of "statement".

Blogger Ominous Cowherd January 29, 2020 4:25 PM  

CarpeOro wrote:I think I recall a thread here on VP where the general American/North European tendency is to maintain more personal space.
I don't think personal space was the point Ringo stressed in that story.

Americans do things like crap in toilets, wash their hands afterwards, drive their own cars instead of coughing and sneezing on public transport.

Americans also are willing to improvise, willing to network outside of family and so they are somewhat able to keep infrastructure running and route around damage.

In short, Americans aren't Turd Worlders. We are a little less likely to spread disease, a little more likely to keep things humming along.

Blogger Akulkis January 29, 2020 4:32 PM  

@27

"I think I recall a thread here on VP where the general American/North European tendency is to maintain more personal space. A European reader commented that wasn't his impression of the America. His experience was colored by the lack of personal space I think is normal in any major metropolitan area, whether it be London, Beijing, or New York"

Met up with this in Saudi Arabia.

It was easy to spot from a distance a conversation between an American and a Saudi.

The standard conversational distance for Saudis is "close enough to identify what each other ate for at least 2 meals" where as standard American conversational distance is "I don't want to be close enough to even suspect whether or not you have showered in the last few days."

So, Saudi steps forward to close the distance...American soon steps backwards... repeat until the American has accidentally backed into something and no longer has any line of retreat.

Hilarious to observe; not so fun if you're the American.

Blogger Linda Fox January 29, 2020 4:36 PM  

Several things - first, the incidence in health care workers is high. They are younger than their patients.
Second, that table is rising. Most viral infections ebb in the spring, and return with the cooler months. That isn't what the table shows.
IF those figures through 1/29 are correct, the virus will NOT become a pandemic. However, I have no confidence in the veracity of the Chinese government.

Blogger Fuzzums Wuzzums January 29, 2020 4:56 PM  

Diabetes is still a far deadlier disease but people prefer a good outbreak story instead.

Blogger The Depolrable Podunk Ken Ramsey January 29, 2020 4:57 PM  

I read that the Spanish Flu had an astonishing transmission rate of 50%, with a mortality rate of 10%. This coronavirus so far is at 3%/4% in comparison. So it does not seem to be poised for the same kind of explosive breakout as the Spanish contagion, unless of course it mutates.

And regarding those racial differences - the same thing was observed with the Spanish Flu, with guess who but North American indigenous types hit hardest yet again. Entire Inuit villages got wiped out. Asians fared poorly vs. Europeans, generally.

Blogger [Redacted] January 29, 2020 4:58 PM  

The CDC, with its level 4 lab, is in Atlanta, which also has the busiest airport in the world. The second busiest is in Beijing.

I agree that putting dangerous disease research labs in populated areas, alongside transit hubs, is stupid. The Chinese are hardly alone in that though, and it makes you wonder if it isn't by design.

More labs in the US:
https://fas.org/programs/bio/research.html

Blogger Uncompliant January 29, 2020 5:04 PM  

Another key indicator to watch is "suspected cases." From the same links I shared above, as of 28 Jan, the number of "sc" was 9,329. If that number stabilizes and the "new cases" over the next few days are essentially moved over from the "sc" category, that will indicate successful containment. On the other hand, FWIW -- probably not much -- twitter and internet rumor has the "sc" at 90K+

Blogger Akulkis January 29, 2020 5:08 PM  

And just to add fuel to the fire.

Some Chinese woman had a fever, but wanted to fly to someplace.

So she doses herself with aspirin, and put some wet wipes in her purse to lower her apparent temp as seen by the thermal imagers at the checkpoint in the airport.

We should have executed Ebola nurse, as a warning to this woman.

Blogger weka January 29, 2020 5:11 PM  

NZ Herald says first people quarantined in Auckland. Students. University of Auckland has travel to China

Blogger Ominous Cowherd January 29, 2020 5:42 PM  

The Depolrable Podunk Ken Ramsey wrote:I read that the Spanish Flu had an astonishing transmission rate of 50%, with a mortality rate of 10%. This coronavirus so far is at 3%/4% in comparison. So it does not seem to be poised for the same kind of explosive breakout as the Spanish contagion, unless of course it mutates.
We are seeing 3-4% mortality where the denominator is the people who have the disease today. The dead ones had the disease three or four weeks ago. What percentage of the number of cases from four weeks ago have died? I bet it's more than 3-4%. 30-40% maybe?

The chinks are almost surely lying about mortality rates, almost surely listing anything but Corona-chan as the cause of death. In other words, this is almost surely a Really Big Deal, which explains why they are locking down tens of millions of people to try to contain it.

If this were really just a fake epidemic to justify locking down some troublesome rioters, the CCP would be playing it up, telling us how terrible it is, and then they would look like genius heroes when they succeed in containing it.

Blogger spacehabitats January 29, 2020 6:01 PM  

Yeah like this boomer who might be your ER physician, you clueless jerk.
Or maybe this is confirmation of the eugenic properties of the plague.
On second thought, you're completely right. Sorry.

Blogger Doktor Jeep January 29, 2020 6:06 PM  

People living on hot pockets and Prozac are probably screwed.

Blogger Crew January 29, 2020 6:17 PM  

As of 1700 EST (I think) the numbers are 7,186 and 169.

Blogger map January 29, 2020 6:31 PM  

[Redacted] wrote:The CDC, with its level 4 lab, is in Atlanta, which also has the busiest airport in the world. The second busiest is in Beijing.

I agree that putting dangerous disease research labs in populated areas, alongside transit hubs, is stupid. The Chinese are hardly alone in that though, and it makes you wonder if it isn't by design.

More labs in the US:

https://fas.org/programs/bio/research.html


Yes, it is by design.

Look at nuclear reactors. In America, almost all of them are located in white areas at the median income of the state as a whole.

Blogger spacehabitats January 29, 2020 6:31 PM  

As a physician I can tell you that the number of cases so far (even if reliable) cant rule out a global pandemic. And even if most of the fatalities occur among older people, a pandemic could cause a huge disruption in our economy. Possibly a grid down level of disruption and, if truck drivers decide they would rather not risk their lives for strangers that live in big cities, possibly worse.

In that case, EVERYONE, of ALL ages will have a lot more to worry about than the viruses mortality rate.

Blogger JovianStorm January 29, 2020 6:31 PM  

This is exactly what China needs to collapse into civil war or revolution.

And exactly what other countries need to sever economic and tourism ties with it. I'm tired of the hordes of Mongoloid tourists in Tokyo spitting and pissing and smoking and hollering and ruining our culture and lives.

Blogger Leoric January 29, 2020 6:35 PM  

Number of actual cases is under reported. Some people tough it out at home. So don't think the mortality is high from looking at number of recovered vs dead.

Blogger furor kek tonicus ( according to the 13th Amendment, Slavery is neither Cruel nor Unusual: MSAGA ) January 29, 2020 6:40 PM  

is Coronachan the new Black Death or Spanish Flu?

forget that, we've more important things to worry about
...
like whether or not a Boomer got their fee fees hurt.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd January 29, 2020 7:00 PM  

@41, that means 169 of the people who had the disease 3+ weeks ago have died. How many had the disease back then?

Blogger Akulkis January 29, 2020 7:03 PM  

"Diabetes is still a far deadlier disease but people prefer a good outbreak story instead."

Diabetes isn't contagious, therefore, we have control over whether we get it or not (or at least a HUGE factor in it).

In contrast, there's not much you can do about respiratory tract airborne viruses sneezed your way.

@ spacehabitats
"Yeah like this boomer who might be your ER physician, you clueless jerk."

I have despised you and your generation since I was 3 years old in 1968. Nothing you can say or do will improve my opinion of you and your generation. Not after you all insisted that all of the surplus taxes (from FICA) be wasted on welfare programs so inefficient that it would have been cheaper to give each of them a full-ride scholarship + room and board at Harvard... and now bitch that you're not getting enough Social Security, when it's YOU RETARDS who insisted that the surpluses be spent. Then, that not being enough, you turned into the rapacious locust generation, and decided that every opportunity your generation had should be sold off, so that the generations behind you have few to none, and what remained, first dibs should be for foreigners, and any that you can't find foreigners for should just be held open indefinitely -- because stock prices are more important than, you know, younger generations having enough financial security to buy a home.

Screw you. Can't wait to piss on your grave, Boomer.
Maybe I'll augment it with natural, solid fertilizer, too, so that your kids know what others think of you...but ... who am I kidding, your kids won't visit your grave, because they think the same of you. Because you're too busy spending their inheritance.

Thanks, Boomer, for absolutely NOTHING,
Generation X.

Blogger Akulkis January 29, 2020 7:04 PM  

Show us on the doll where your fee fees got hurt.

Blogger Uncompliant January 29, 2020 7:20 PM  

Numbers for the spreadsheet--

Coronavirus update:
- 7,811 confirmed cases worldwide
- 12,167 suspected cases
- 170 fatalities
- 1,370 in serious/critical condition
- 124 treated and released
- All regions of China reporting cases
- 17 countries reporting cases

https://twitter.com/BNODesk

Blogger RedJack January 29, 2020 7:28 PM  

I love how a good pandemic thread became a hete boomer thread

Blogger Amethyst Dominica January 29, 2020 7:30 PM  

I believe A/C got the stat chart from the Kiwifarms thread:

https://kiwifarms.net/threads/wuhan-coronavirus-megathread.65421/

Among the shitposting, there is some analysis of the disaster going on from time to time...

Blogger pdwalker January 29, 2020 7:39 PM  

i picked the wrong time to stop sniffing glue.

heading back into china saturday.

Blogger Uncompliant January 29, 2020 7:41 PM  

Those are the 29 Jan numbers. A bit higher than targets

For those wanting the pre-22nd Jan numbers:

19 Jan -- 204 cases; 3 dead
20 Jan -- 219 cases; 4 dead
21 Jan -- 317 cases; 6 dead

Those are the earliest numbers I've seen.

Blogger lowercaseb January 29, 2020 7:44 PM  

Here is a reasonably good perspective on the China side of the Virus from one of the AdvChina guys. He's spent 10 years living and traveling in China, speaks the language well and knows the customs of the different provinces. He's a biased against the CCP power upswing under Xi since he's burning the rice himself but once we get past that perspective he's got a good take on the situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSIt496d82s

Blogger Uncompliant January 29, 2020 8:01 PM  

If anyone is filling in the spreadsheet, mumbers for yesterday, 28 Jan:

- 5,572 confirmed cases
- 9,239 suspected cases
- 131 fatalities
- 1,109 in serious/critical condition
- 103 treated and released

Blogger furor kek tonicus ( according to the 13th Amendment, Slavery is neither Cruel nor Unusual: MSAGA ) January 29, 2020 8:03 PM  

football, boobs and Boomerhate.

three subjects which are never offtopic.

Blogger The Depolrable Podunk Ken Ramsey January 29, 2020 8:08 PM  

Ominous Cowherd wrote:We are seeing 3-4% mortality where the denominator is the people who have the disease today. The dead ones had the disease three or four weeks ago. What percentage of the number of cases from four weeks ago have died? I bet it's more than 3-4%. 30-40% maybe?

The mortality numbers may well be lowballed. Wouldn't be the first time. But consider that they are only one part of the comparison to the Spanish Flu that I was making, at least. I wasn't saying that the mortality rate was 3-4%, I was saying how this coronavirus compared to the Spanish Flu's 50%/10% transmission/mortality rate. This one's got a 3% transmission rate/4% mortality rate so far. Were it to have an attack vector that aggressive half of Wutan would be ill right now. That doesn't seem to be the case. They just had a celebration in that city last month where 180,000 of them showed attended. It could yet take a more lethal and a more catchable form, but so far thank God it hasn't achieved the kind of "escape velocity" that the world saw in 1918.

Blogger thalios January 29, 2020 8:12 PM  

Nice VPN advert.

Blogger Lazarus January 29, 2020 8:14 PM  

pdwalker wrote:i picked the wrong time to stop sniffing glue.

heading back into china saturday.


As long as you keep your Hazmat suit on, you will be fine. Just don't try to quit smoking.

Blogger Dr Caveman January 29, 2020 8:23 PM  

Chinese doctors published a report today on 99 Wuhan infected in The Lancet - Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of
2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study

Main finding: mortality rate is 11%, much higher than the officially reported 2-3%

Blogger Fuzzums Wuzzums January 29, 2020 8:27 PM  

Akulkis wrote:

Diabetes isn't contagious, therefore, we have control over whether we get it or not (or at least a HUGE factor in it).

In contrast, there's not much you can do about respiratory tract airborne viruses sneezed your way.


So we should worry about the things we can't change and ignore the things we can? Got it.

Blogger George January 29, 2020 8:29 PM  

The numbers for the 30th are posted on South China Morning Post. Confirmed Cases 7771, Deaths 170 Basically one day behind the chart.

Blogger Akulkis January 29, 2020 8:39 PM  

"i picked the wrong time to stop sniffing glue.
heading back into china saturday."

Whatever you have going on there, is it worth such an elevated risk to your life that you must go without delay?

Blogger Dr Caveman January 29, 2020 8:39 PM  

Japan reported that 3/200 evacuees were infected with the virus. This is an incredibly improbable event, unless the infection rate is much higher than reported

Blogger Scott January 29, 2020 8:56 PM  

Science and Medicine might not save you, but Jesus can.

Blogger CoolHand January 29, 2020 9:05 PM  

Come on, let Coronachan in.

She'll love you for the rest of your life.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd January 29, 2020 9:10 PM  

For those wanting the pre-22nd Jan numbers:

19 Jan -- 204 cases; 3 dead
20 Jan -- 219 cases; 4 dead
21 Jan -- 317 cases; 6 dead

Is it reasonable to assume that all of the 169 dead so far were among the 317 cases on the 21st? Eight days from diagnosis to death? That's about 50% mortality once diagnosed.

Blogger nbfdmd January 29, 2020 9:19 PM  

Hey Chicken Littles, confirmed cases ALWAYS rises exponentially at first because the containment apparatus ramps up exponentially. The big thing will be if confirmed cases cross into the hundreds of thousands or millions, and the death rate is maintained. Until then, this is nothing worse than any other run-of-the-mill epidemic.

Blogger Meng Greenleaf January 29, 2020 9:27 PM  

Thank God I finished work and left China 6 weeks ago. I don't think they're downplaying the seriousness in China. Everyone I know in China is remaining indoors with the exception of perhaps going to get supplies. One girl I know used to do a bit of part-time work at an internet cafe. She quit.

Blogger Paradise Lost January 29, 2020 9:31 PM  

According to reports we know that 10% of Europeans are immune to HIV due to genetic traits passed down from survivors of the plague. Perhaps influenza survivors passed along similar traits. Viruses always mutate so maybe there are no positive traits that are relevant.

Blogger Uncompliant January 29, 2020 9:35 PM  

https://twitter.com/richardhorton1

some information on the "critical" and "serious" cases.

"... latest clinical report on 2019-nCoV: 99 patients from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital. Important: a key group of patients progress rapidly to ARDS, septic shock, and multiple organ failure. 23% ITU admission, 17% ARDS, 11% mortality." ARDS = Acute respiratory distress syndrome

The report is here for those that want the tech. medical details. This seems to be based on the first 99 cases or so (I think).

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620302117.pdf

Looks like first case or cases was around 7 Dec 2019 and officially identified as a new virus on about 7 Jan 2020.

Symptoms include: fever, cough, shortness of breadth, muscle ache, headache, confusion, chest pain, nausea, and diarrhoea. Nearly 90% had more than one symptom; but only 15% had the combo of fever, cough and shortness of breadth.

Blogger Laramie Hirsch January 29, 2020 9:42 PM  

It may be a racially-targeting virus. It goes after East Asians, who have a preponderance of ACE2 enzymes in their lungs.

Blogger nbfdmd January 29, 2020 9:43 PM  

@71: This might be a controversial statement in these parts, but get your flu shot every year. Your immunity to each selection of strains lasts longer than a year. So if you do it every year, you build up a general immunity to all influenza, or most of it.

Blogger Meng Greenleaf January 29, 2020 9:50 PM  

Re: This is exactly what China* needs to collapse into civil war or revolution.

* USA

I'm not a Sinophile, but I seriously doubt the Han Chinese will turn to civil war. Who would fight whom? Han against Han? Han against their government? Why? The CCP is always executing corrupt members. In general, in my experience, 99.99% of Chinese prefer their government. They're not blind, it's not like North Korea. They just look at the most salient alternatives in the "West", and say no thank you.

Or so it seems to me.

Blogger Uncompliant January 29, 2020 9:53 PM  

@65 Dr. Caveman: You indicate that 3 out of 200 for the Japanese who were evacuated "is an incredibly improbable event unless the infection rate is much higher than reported". How so? Why so? I do not know the details of the evacuation and where the people were. My initial thought was the opposite; seems low; if 3 were infected, why not all of them?

Blogger lowercaseb January 29, 2020 10:21 PM  

thalios wrote:Nice VPN advert.
I know...never have I seen such an inpropriate and yet appropriate sponser break in a YT vid.

Blogger Mr Smith January 29, 2020 10:39 PM  

spacehabitats, ok, Boomer, thanks for informing us you're a Boomer. It's not like we asked or even cared.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine January 29, 2020 11:50 PM  

"So we should worry about the things we can't change and ignore the things we can?

Well, maybe you can't change them. Some of us like to keep options open, which is curiously difficult to distinguish from being a cause of having the ability to change things.

Blogger Rakshasa January 29, 2020 11:55 PM  

Supposedly asians have some 5 times more ACE-2 receptors on their cells than Europeans, which is what Corona-chan uses as an entry point.

Good chance we will be somewhat safe.

Blogger furor kek tonicus ( according to the 13th Amendment, Slavery is neither Cruel nor Unusual: MSAGA ) January 30, 2020 12:16 AM  

speaking of 'tracking the outbreak', it looks like Vox's Plan 9 forecast wasn't far off:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/travisbean/2020/01/24/a-timeline-of-star-wars-rise-of-skywalkers-box-office-woes/#34fa20ca150f

Blogger Lance E January 30, 2020 2:31 AM  

There have been five cases in the USA. Five.

And I think every one of those cases was from someone who had traveled to Wuhan. No reports of any transmission between people in the U.S. yet.

Maybe that's just because it's still early, somewhat long incubation, and so on. Or, maybe it's because Wuhan is a petri dish, even by Chinese standards.

So far, out of 170 deaths, 162 are all in Hubei (where Wuhan is). That's about a 3.5% mortality rate. But nowhere else in China is like that.

Compare Guangdong to Hubei. 311 confirmed cases, 0 deaths, 43 serious or critical (about 15%). In Hubei it's 4586 cases, 162 deaths, about 1000 serious or critical (nearly 25%).

Not only are there no deaths outside China so far, there are almost no deaths outside Wuhan. Yes, it's still early, need to keep repeating that caveat, but the death toll was higher 1 week ago in Wuhan than it is anywhere else today.

Here's an interesting fact: according to the CDC, the flu causes 2 deaths per 100,000 population in America. According to various studies of Chinese provinces, that number is 14.72 in Guangzhou (Guangdong province) or 4.59 in Yancheng (Jiangsu province, near Shanghai). I can't find stats on Hubei. But I think the pattern is clear: many more people in China die from respiratory illnesses than in the western world, per capita. And Wuhan/Hubei may be especially bad.

I think China is catching up to the western world in terms of health care, and America is declining, but in absolute terms, China is still far behind. Even if this Coronavirus spreads in the U.S., my impression is that it will be like the flu, and that people who get it may not ever realize it's something other than flu. Yes, it's still early, but so far I've seen nothing to panic about, when you put it all into perspective.

Blogger Akulkis January 30, 2020 2:57 AM  

@62

"So we should worry about the things we can't change and ignore the things we can? Got it."

The causes of diabetes are changing?

The only news about diabetes is what new treatments there are, and how much it costs.

As to how to avoid becoming diabetic, nothing changes -- less carbs, more proteins and fats.

Does that formula mystify you?
Do you need to re-read it on a regular basis?

Blogger TontoBubbaGoldstein January 30, 2020 3:12 AM  

pdwalker wrote:i picked the wrong time to stop sniffing glue.

heading back into china saturday.


Surely you can't be serious?!!!

Blogger bobby January 30, 2020 3:17 AM  

"Screw you. Can't wait to piss on your grave, Boomer.
. . . . Because you're too busy spending their inheritance."


Ah, yes, the quintessential X'er.

I'm about six years older than he is, and he's going to piss on my grave because I had the temerity to think of my stuff as my stuff, and not merely caretake it for his benefit.

There are few things more bitter than disappointed entitlement.

Blogger Scuzzaman January 30, 2020 4:31 AM  

According to the CDC about 16% of patients diagnosed with flu actually show a flu virus in their samples.

So even a perfect vaccine, which was totally effective against every flu virus in existence, would only affect 1 in 6 of the people who received it.

And since no such perfect vaccine exists, how willing should people be to take such profitable advice for so little benefit?

Blogger Philippe January 30, 2020 5:38 AM  

They recycled the pictures of the AIDS virus for pictures of the corronavirus. They just changed the color...

Blogger Ominous Cowherd January 30, 2020 8:04 AM  

Vaccination is always very profitable for the Medical Industrial Complex. It is not always profitable for the vaccinated.

Blogger Akulkis January 30, 2020 8:53 AM  

"
I'm about six years older than he is, and he's going to piss on my grave because I had the temerity to think of my stuff as my stuff, and not merely caretake it for his benefit."

Translation: "I Boomer, plan on ONCE AGAIN, making sure the those born in younger generations don't have any of the opportunities which the older generations provided to me."

And you still can't figure out why you're "The ME ME ME Generation" aka "The Locust Generation"

Even as your body falls apart, you still haven't matured mentally past that of a 12-year old child.

And then you wonder why EVERYBODY who isn't your age cohort has despised you.

Blogger Servant January 30, 2020 8:54 AM  

They are also fantastic jobs that need to be done by technically trained people you idjit.

Blogger Akulkis January 30, 2020 9:03 AM  

There have been five cases in the USA. Five.

And I think every one of those cases was from someone who had traveled to Wuhan. No reports of any transmission between people in the U.S. yet."

5 more than what we would have had already if the bureaucracy of the State Department, the CDC, and ICE actually gave a hoot about their duties to American citizens.

Now, considering the length of time between the incubation phase and showing the first symptoms, when a person is spreading the disease around without anybody knowing.... what do you think the numbers will be 4 weeks from now?

I can guarantee that the Chinese Students Association at Arizona State and whatever college campus the Arkansas case is at, will show some pretty high numbers.

And then there was the woman who was experiencing symptoms, but took aspirin to suppress her fever so that she could evade being identified by body temperature screening before boarding her flight. And she bragged about how she successfully violated the containment system. This is already worse than Ebola nurse.

Blogger Up from the pond January 30, 2020 9:21 AM  

"I had the temerity to think of my stuff as my stuff, and not merely caretake it for his benefit."

The quintessential Boomer. There would be no Western civilization if previous generations of men had had his depraved indifference to posterity.

_A Generation of Sociopaths_ by Gibney is a good analysis of the Boomer generation. Lasch is also good, and he shows that Boomerism goes back a little before the Boomers.

Blogger Tom d January 30, 2020 10:02 AM  

Lance E wrote:Or, maybe it's because Wuhan is a petri dish, even by Chinese standards.
"55. lowercaseb" linked to a YT channel, who also provided commentary with another UK based YT channel (medical doctor with experience in China) describing Chinese culture from the Western perspective (i.e. UK/American). Per their experience, most Chinese have never washed their hands in their entire life. Hand soap is apparently only available in 5 star hotels. Perhaps the open air markets, large banquets (i.e. 100K), Chinese New Year travel patterns, poor hygiene practices, poor gov't response ect. - are the main drivers of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM

Blogger Azure Amaranthine January 30, 2020 10:58 AM  

"because I had the temerity to think of my stuff as my stuff, and not merely caretake it for his benefit."

Why won't you do what your parents did for you? Why must your mouth flap?

Blogger Linda Fox January 30, 2020 11:06 AM  

Graphed here
https://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2020/01/graphing-epidemic.html

Blogger Arthur Isaac January 30, 2020 11:15 AM  

Early papers suggest a possible disproportionate affect on Asian male populations who may have a higher amount of ACE2 receptors in their lungs. 2019nCOV apparently hits those receptors. Wait and see.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

The other one a saw had demographics out of Wuhan showing that 67% of treated (acute) patients were men skewed to the over 50 demo.

Blogger Storm Rhode January 30, 2020 3:28 PM  

Boomers just lived their lives. They don't understand the hate. They don't realize they inherited a gold mine economy after the world's manufacturing was bombed to the stone age after WWII. They think nothing of the large inheritance they received compared to the paltry scraps they leave for the future. They think nothing of the good paying jobs and flush benefits they received while working that were cut for later generations to find their inflated pensions. There is more but it's a waste of effort. They feel entitled and simply don't care about future generations. So future generations are happy to put them in nursing homes and leave them to their fate. Of course there are some notable exceptions.

Blogger Storm Rhode January 30, 2020 3:31 PM  

China told it's citizens to stay home and don't go to the over crowded hospitals. I suspect many dead will be found at homes all over China when the travel bans are lifted.

Blogger Arthur Isaac January 30, 2020 4:16 PM  

@Storm.

I'm thinking by the time the travel bans are lifted the world is going to look completely different. What corpses? Maybe, what homes?

Blogger Noah B. January 30, 2020 4:19 PM  

Well the numbers above show a decisive break in the growth curve. However it's being reported that Chinese hospitals are already running out of testing kits. So how would cases of new infection that are physician diagnosed but not laboratory confirmed be handled? No idea.

Blogger Uncompliant January 30, 2020 7:11 PM  

at about midnight GMT, here are the numbers:

Coronavirus update:
- 9,821 confirmed cases worldwide (chart had predicted 11,100 or so)
- 15,238 suspected cases
- 213 fatalities (still none outside of China)
- 1,476 in serious/critical condition
- 171 treated and released
- All regions of China reporting cases
- 20 countries reporting cases (3 new countries)

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Blogger Akulkis January 30, 2020 7:24 PM  

So then, the "confirmed cases" statistic will be dropped, even as the death toll continues to rise.

Blogger Crew January 30, 2020 8:55 PM  

Strange that none are being reported in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Blogger 7916 January 30, 2020 9:47 PM  

So my completely anecdotal news-only based idea is that:

50/50 death vs recovery rate of patients reported as confirmed 10 days before with a 2 week asymptomatic infectious period.

Blogger Wolfman January 30, 2020 9:48 PM  

Remember to give your Asian friends one last hug before CoronaChan takes them home.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd January 30, 2020 10:22 PM  

Crew wrote:Strange that none are being reported in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Q: What do you call it when hundreds or thousands are dying every day from who-knows-what?
A: Sub-Saharan Africa.
7916 wrote:50/50 death vs recovery rate of patients reported as confirmed 10 days before with a 2 week asymptomatic infectious period.
Wolfman wrote:Remember to give your Asian friends one last hug before CoronaChan takes them home.
Give'em that last hug more than two weeks before the first symptoms pop up.

Blogger Avalanche January 30, 2020 10:23 PM  

Limited data may be skewing assumptions about severity of coronavirus outbreak, experts say by Helen Branswell


Health officials in China, racing to try to contain a fast-growing coronavirus outbreak, are principally recording severe cases of disease, using a case definition that cannot capture patients with mild illness, according to experts familiar with the surveillance efforts.

The approach, the experts told STAT, is likely resulting in both an underestimate in the total number of cases and flawed assumptions about fatality rates calculated by those who ignore the repeated caution that it's too soon to do that math.

The experts were quick to note that the Chinese are not willfully under-reporting cases. Rather, the approach is a testament to how challenging data collection can be during the early days of an epidemic. When thousands of sick people show up at hospitals looking for care, there is no time to go searching for people who have mild symptoms and who have stayed home.

.... The rest here: https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/limited-data-may-skew-assumptions-severity-coronavirus-outbreak/

Blogger MortemTyrannus January 31, 2020 1:09 AM  

The IL lady gave it to someone in her household. Confirmed today.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/21-people-under-investigation-for-coronavirus-in-illinois-health-officials/2210342/%3f

Blogger John Rockwell January 31, 2020 3:50 AM  

If you have Coronachan be sure to share her in all the boomer retirement homes. She will surely love the company.

Blogger Avalanche January 31, 2020 6:50 AM  

Aw, COME ON! The Deep State/Secret World Govt, as demonstrated by the WHO, has GOT to be losing their minds. Or are they intentionally and maliciously teasing their cattle?! Hidden-signaling their current actions?

From here: https://nationalpost.com/news/coronavirus-risk-to-canadians-remains-low-despite-who-declaring-it-a-global-emergency-top-health-official

=======
WHO urged countries to take a "measured and evidence-based response" to the global emergency. A PHEIC — pronounced "fake" and standing for public health emergency of international concern — implies a situation that is "serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected," carries implications for public health beyond the affected country’s border and "may require immediate international action."
=======

A "FAKE" -- they're actually calling this possible pandemic a FAKE! Right out in the open!

Blogger HouellebecqGurl January 31, 2020 7:35 AM  

Furry 4 legged grandchildren or mixed race mud grandchildren who grow up to hate his guts because he's an evil white oppressor.

Blogger HouellebecqGurl January 31, 2020 7:38 AM  

I refuse to believe you are this stupid. I mean it

Blogger HouellebecqGurl January 31, 2020 8:01 AM  

According to my Beijing employees, people can't get to the hospital due to lack of transportation & the ones that do are often turned away.
For everything, not just Corona but heart attacks, strokes, etc.

Blogger Tars Tarkas January 31, 2020 9:32 AM  

Even if China wanted to give accurate numbers, which I don't believe for one minute, they really couldn't do so. I heard on Molyneux's show yesterday that they don't even have enough tests. These numbers are confirmed cases where the patient was tested and known to be infected.
I also heard that there are people "recycling" used masks and selling them as new and lots of fakes labeled to be of one higher standard while being little more than a dryer sheet.
Whatever is happening in China, I don't think we have a clear or complete picture. Given what the Chinese are doing with the shutdowns, I have a tough time believing they are doing this over a couple of thousand infections at the time of the shutdown. The normal background deaths in China is about 20,000 per day. You wouldn't even notice 200 deaths over a month.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd January 31, 2020 10:53 AM  

@113, the actual Chinese death rate is the ``zero medical care'' death rate. The few VIPs who get actual modern treatment are going to be too few to matter.

The reported death rate? The numbers they give us come from a chain of official reports, and each link in the chain looks at the bogus data it is given, ignores it, and makes up face-saving lies to report up the chain. The official numbers are only interesting because they tell us what the CCP wants us to hear and focus on. We can't learn the truth from their lies, but we can still learn a lot.

Blogger Vaughan Williams January 31, 2020 11:00 AM  

How long from time of infection to time the virus starts being transmitted?

Blogger Storm Rhode January 31, 2020 1:17 PM  

A friend was saying this virus selecting for Asian men might be China's way of culling it's 30 million men who can't find wives and may cause civil unrest. The CCPs main objective is social tranquility.

Blogger Dr Caveman January 31, 2020 4:19 PM  

@76
3/200 infected among Japanese evacuees means and infection rate of 1.5%. If that were true for Wuhan in general (11M people), there'd be 165,000 infected

Blogger Dr Caveman January 31, 2020 4:52 PM  

Potential nCOV bombshell on biological preprent archive BioRxiv today: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1

Indian scientists discovered four simultaneous insertions of HIV in nCOV and conclude that this is unlikely to occur by chance, suggesting that it was manufactured. Three of the insertions are parts of glycoprotein 120 - gp120 - which play a main role in HIV infecting host cells.

Guess who's working on gp120?

The Wuhan Institute of Virology!

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22192629

Blogger Uncompliant January 31, 2020 7:11 PM  

@ DrCaveman: Aw, gotcha. That makes sense. Thank you.

Blogger Scott January 31, 2020 7:12 PM  

According to the conspiracy sites, three days from infection the carrier begins infecting others without showing any signs of symptoms. Two weeks after infection the symptoms start. Seven to ten days after symptoms appear the real bioweapons race to see which one gets the killshot.

What if China had two problems:

1) A massive population crisis caused by the one-child policy, with a large population of angry men likely to cause discontent or war.

2) A bioweapon developed by their enemies to wipe out East-Asian men.

It's a cold blooded, but logical solution to infect your own people with this virus to create immunity in your population AND "fix" the demographics crisis.

Blogger Uncompliant January 31, 2020 7:21 PM  

At about midnight GMT 31 Jan, here are the numbers

- 11,948 confirmed cases worldwide (chart predicted 16K+; so that's good)
- 17,988 suspected cases
- 259 fatalities
- 1,795 in serious/critical condition
- 260 treated and released
- All parts of China reporting cases
- 24 countries reporting cases

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

So, that's a good trend. I took three days to double (from 5,100 or so on the 29th). Cases were doubling every 2 days prior to that.

Still no deaths outside of China. Cures caught up with deaths.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd January 31, 2020 7:35 PM  

How long from time of infection to time the virus starts being transmitted?
That is an important question. Another is how long from infection to diagnosable symptoms. A third would be how long from diagnosable symptoms to death or recovery.

Blogger Newscaper312 January 31, 2020 10:50 PM  

@123
A couple more questions:
1) Are you no longer contagious when your fever ends?
2) Does it give you some lifetime immunity like chickenpox, or will it be like the flu where you almost start over each year?

Blogger Newscaper312 January 31, 2020 10:51 PM  

Oh, and how many bad enough to go to the hospital can be treated wo needing ICU or an intubation and ventilator?

Blogger Newscaper312 January 31, 2020 10:54 PM  

@121
Seems to affect older non-fighting age, non-reproducing males the most, so not optimum for either purpose.
Govt deliberately killing the elderly would quite likely spark a revolution, as the underlying Confucian values still run strong.

Blogger Vaughan Williams February 01, 2020 2:22 AM  

@121 Thank you Scott. That is the info I needed to get started on some modeling software.

Blogger Uncompliant February 01, 2020 7:15 PM  

At about midnight GMT 1 Feb 2020, here are the numbers

- 14,550 confirmed cases worldwide (up about 2,500 since yesterday at about the same time; chart predicted 24K+)
- 19,544 suspected cases (it is reported elsewhere that computer modelling predicts 75K are infected; that is a mid-range estimate; model says might be as low as 35K infected or upwards of 120k+)
- 304 fatalities (chart predicted nearly 500)
- 2,110 in serious/critical condition
- 328 treated and released
- All parts of China reporting cases
- 24 countries reporting cases (same as yesterday)

https://twitter.com/BNODesk

Blogger RobertDWood February 02, 2020 8:45 AM  

No. Gamma gonna gamma.

Blogger Storm Rhode February 02, 2020 8:54 AM  

Advchina and serpenza channels showing Chinese health officials quarantining apartment complexes. Locking infected in their apartments. One guy's wife is a Chinese Dr with the inside scoop.

Blogger Newscaper312 February 02, 2020 9:09 AM  

May have accidentally posted this in the Iowa survey pulled thread.

Thailand claims a successful treatment w flu and HIV drugs.
Good news, but also raises the question again about the genome apparently having been tampered with.
What's a little CRISPR between friends?

Blogger Uncompliant February 02, 2020 9:39 AM  

From AnonCon's daily briefing: He links the article below and offers this quote from the article: "Even more sobering is the fact that persons recovering from illness can have huge viral load. This raises 'concern about prolonged shedding of the virus even after recovery'...”

Another quote: "The work “suggest spread can occur from asymptomatic patients and there may be viral shedding, and risk of contagion, after recovery. If true, this will make control more challenging,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb former Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration says in a tweet."

This is something I wondered about. What is the meaning of "recovered?" Are those persons "clear" of the virus? Seems the answer is "no." In what manner are they defined as "recovered?" And do those persons still have the virus and -- most importantly -- can they infect others even though they are "recovered?" Seems the answer is "yes."

Viral load and asymptomatic patients was/are key issues with respect to HIV transmission. Note that the coronavirus has a big chunk that looks like the HIV virus. (Natural? Designed that way?) HIV drugs are being used to treat the coronavirus.

If those that are "recovered" are carrying a "huge viral load," are they at risk of relapse? Will it take another 14 days for them to relapse -- the incubation period? Will they need constant access to anti-virus drugs (like HIV patients do)? Or have their bodies created an anti-virus?

Are they medically monitored in any way to track their exposure to others?

https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/science/extended-chain-of-human-to-human-spread-seen-in-germany/article30710655.ece

Blogger Crew February 02, 2020 11:03 AM  

Still no deaths outside of China.

What a difference a day or two makes.

Blogger Crew February 02, 2020 11:10 AM  

Are they medically monitored in any way to track their exposure to others?

I suspect that medical staff in the affected areas are so overwhelmed at the moment that they do not have time to worry about those who are claimed to have "recovered"!

Blogger Crew February 02, 2020 11:40 AM  

A Chinese woman I know said that more men than women are dying because women talk so much that their lungs are stronger!

Blogger Crew February 02, 2020 11:43 AM  

Good news. nCoV will not turn you into a zombie. That will be the next manufactured virus!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/coronavirus-wont-turn-you-zombie-says-malaysian-government

Blogger lowercaseb February 02, 2020 11:46 AM  

She's already here in my neck of the woods. Luckily I work for home for this current contract and hands on gardening is keeping my immune system strong. It's funny, all the money types from Hong Kong that were buying up the houses in my neighborhood seem to be on vacation and the only Asians I'm seeing in my section of the City are the trophy wives for the tech bros (of course, I could be mixing up on who's the trophy for who.)

Needless to say, all the type two masks are being bought up in bulk here.

Blogger Uncompliant February 02, 2020 12:10 PM  

Yes, I could internet-search it, but I'd rather ask my be-luv-ed frends here: How make do-it-you-self s'rgical mask? A wet hand-towel is what I use when sanding drywall, but ... (channeling my BAP).

Blogger Crew February 02, 2020 3:03 PM  

The Coronavirus is bad but Muh Racism is worse!

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/i-am-not-virus-outbreak-leads-shocking-rise-racism-toward-asian-people

Blogger Duke Norfolk February 02, 2020 4:21 PM  

@139 They have to go back - to their disease spawning country.

Of course this points back to Vox's first post on the Corona-chan virus, and the virtues that will arise out of a generally bad situation; coming as it is during a natural swing towards nationalism (and all that dirty, dirty xenophobia, don't ya know). Versus the way things played during the 2003 SARS incident.

Blogger Avalanche February 02, 2020 4:36 PM  

@122 "Cures caught up with deaths."

I wish they'd stop calling it "cures." NO one is curing this stuff. Some people are surviving, but that's got nothing to do with a cure!

What keeps one alive is good genes, good health, and effective medical SUPPORT! Were you able to get dehydration remedies? Did you get breathing support /oxygen supply if needed? Were any complicating conditions watched for and treated: bacterial pneumonia can be treated with antibiotics; viral can't.

Careless use of "cure" implies it's possible to cure this. It's not. Even a vaccine is not a cure; it's a hoped-for prophylactic; and many are semi-effective in lessening the virulence of a virus if provided after infection. But even the vaunted Tamiflu is supportive, and only sometimes semi-prophylactic.

Blogger Pathfinderlight February 02, 2020 5:24 PM  

SerpentZA's wife is a Chinese doctor that he met while working in China. So yes, he often talks to her about medical stories about the state of western medicine in China. One thing that really struck me is how the Chinese mentality of lack of consequences for one's actions was very present in their doctors, even after western style education.

Blogger Carlos Carrasco February 02, 2020 5:27 PM  

I heard someone at a restaurant a couple of hours ago dismiss the whole thing as the 'Kung Flu.'

Blogger Uncompliant February 02, 2020 6:27 PM  

About midnight GST on 02 Feb 2020:

- 16,758 confirmed cases worldwide
- 19,544 suspected cases
- 361 fatalities
- 2,148 in serious/critical condition
- 408 in China recovered
- Vast majority of cases in China
- 24 countries reporting cases

https://twitter.com/BNODesk

Blogger Akulkis February 02, 2020 6:41 PM  

"Alternatively, if it picks up, you may do well to start paying attention to the possibility Corona-chan will be making an appearance closer to you than you might like."

Personally, I'm expecting significant outbreaks at every university where there is a Chinese Student Association, as well as at every company which employs large numbers of Chinese who went home. And at and around international airports.

If none of the above happens, I will be VERY surprised.

I expect that local hospitals and news media to be very open about the number of cases their treating, as they can't get blamed for any of it -- they're the heroes saving the populace from biological onslaught! On the other hand, I expect businesses with an employee stricken by coronavirus to absolutely attempt to clamp down on any mention of where the victim worked. "To prevent panic" they will say, but mostly, to prevent the general public from knowing who has been actively engaged in treason against the public, and in a way which most especially harms the white middle class, which is where the vast majority of economic power still lays.

Blogger Uncompliant February 02, 2020 7:07 PM  

Revised (about an hour later; sorry, I should have waited)-- midnight GMT on 02 Feb 2020:

- 17,386 confirmed cases worldwide
- 21,558 suspected cases
- 362 fatalities
- 2,296 in serious/critical condition
- 475 in China recovered
- Vast majority of cases in China
- 24 countries reporting cases

https://twitter.com/BNODesk
and
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Blogger Crew February 02, 2020 7:11 PM  

@145: So far two confirmed Chinese with nCoV have been announced in Santa Clara, with the potential for lots more as one of them has been here since 1/23 and they don't really know what she was doing it seems.

However, I am surprised not to see lots at Bezerkeley and Stanford.

Blogger Calvin809 February 02, 2020 7:29 PM  

Wasn't the plague in the 1340s Chinese in origin also?

Blogger Wolfman February 03, 2020 1:34 AM  

The Wu Tang Flu ain't nothing ta f*ck wit
https://youtu.be/zaH-FrFisf0

Blogger John Rockwell February 03, 2020 2:16 AM  

Not really. Its near mongolia but not china proper at the time.

Blogger pdwalker February 03, 2020 8:15 AM  

back in HK.

a number of bodies are turning up in the public transportation that are not getting reported by the local media.

pictures are being shared via person to person sharing and social media.

Blogger Akulkis February 03, 2020 10:45 AM  

"back in HK.

a number of bodies are turning up in the public transportation that are not getting reported by the local media.
"

This is going to sound nosy, but what exactly is so important that you believe it's worth risking your life over?

I can't believe that civilian employer would fire you for delaying your return to a country which has demonstrated that it is unable to handle what is obviously turning into a pandemic within their national borders, and as you have just noted, is even killing people in a semi-independent locality, with better-than-typical education, and which had the best odds of from isolating itself from the infection.

And yet, even after we questioned your announcement to return this weekend, there you are.

Are you suicidal?

Blogger Akulkis February 03, 2020 11:48 AM  

"The Wu Tang Flu ain't nothing ta f*ck wit
https://youtu.be/zaH-FrFisf0"

Removed by Youtube due to SJW-fueled false accusations of "hate speech"

Blogger Wolfman February 03, 2020 12:14 PM  

Never forget: When potentially millions of lives were at stake the media decided that is was more important to call whites racist than to take any serious steps to protect your Asian friends, neighbors and colleagues.

Wu Tang Flu ain't nothing to F with (Bitchute version)
https://www.bitchute.com/video/MlBLIHQVe5lC/

Blogger pdwalker February 03, 2020 12:59 PM  

@152

Hong Kong may have returned to China, but it is not China. The standards of health here are much higher than the rest of the mainland.

People are taking steps to reduce any possible transmission. Shops and restaurants are closed, or closing early. Almost everyone is wearing masks and being more careful than normal over personal hygiene. Many offices are allowing their employees to work from home.

As for why, I have family here that cannot leave for various reasons, and I will not abandon them.

Blogger Wolfman February 03, 2020 1:09 PM  

But Mr. Grabbler, I thought you wanted the nice white boys listening to 90's gangsta rap.

Blogger Silly but True February 03, 2020 3:27 PM  

China’s still afflicting itself with its continued AIDS epidemic, having been on track to triple every eight years or so, and forecasted to hit 3m by 2030. Its greatest increases are now occurring in affluent 60+ men as married boomer husbands are banging everything that moves on their business trips.

China’s now adding 40,000 and increasing AIDS cases a quarter compared to US’ 38,000 cases a year and declining.

Blogger Crew February 03, 2020 5:44 PM  

Is this how they are going to get WWIII?

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/creator-bioweapons-act-says-coronavirus-biological-warfare-weapon

Blogger Uncompliant February 03, 2020 6:39 PM  

FYI, per BNO News feed and cite, Chinese officials give a report @ 7 pm ET and the region where Wuhan is located reports @ 5 pm ET

https://twitter.com/BNODesk

Blogger Uncompliant February 03, 2020 7:07 PM  

At about midnight GMT (7 pm ET and about 8 am Beijing time):

Coronavirus update:
- 20,626 confirmed cases worldwide
- 23,214 suspected cases
- 426 fatalities
- 2,792 in serious/critical condition
- 632 recovered in China
- Vast majority of cases in China
- 24 countries reporting cases

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Blogger 7916 February 03, 2020 7:10 PM  

ratio is now 50/50 death recovery from confirmed cases 11 days ago.

We'll see what the real danger is in the next couple of days as the number of officially confirmed cases went to 2800.

Blogger Uncompliant February 03, 2020 7:17 PM  

https://www.anonymousconservative.com/blog/news-briefs-02-03-2020/

FYI, from AnonConservative this morning. He linked a now-suppressed Chinese language report (archived now) that says the numbers are essentially phony. What is being reported is basically the number of test strips and those admitted to the hospitals. But test strips are now running out and there is no room in the hospitals, so people are sent home and, thus, not counted.

Here is AnonCons.'s summary:

"The test strips are limited to ten per day at one hospital, so confirmed numbers probably mean nothing as it is just a measure of how many test strips they have available. Of 120 fever patients, 80 have lung involvement, but only 5 get admitted to the hospital. The rest are sent home and will never be recorded. If they die, they are immediately cremated, and it is called general pneumonia, and not recorded as Corona. And only patients admitted to the hospital can be listed as suspected, which means when BNO reports 20,000 suspected cases, the number correlates to 320,000 lung-involved patients who showed up at the hospital, and 480,000 fevers who felt bad enough to go to the hospital, all of which were sent home, save for the original 20,000 who get listed as suspected. This is why we were seeing the unusual images of people laying out in the street – it is really bad over there. Bear in mind, it appears even those who beat it continue to shed, possibly indefinitely, meaning everyone may eventually get it. And it is not clear if having it degrades you physically after beating it, or if it may hang around to re-emerge later with stress or immune system degradation from other issues, maybe killing you later."

Blogger Uncompliant February 03, 2020 9:09 PM  

@ 161 -- maybe. 11 days ago, there were 1126 confirmed cases; as of today, 426 deaths and 632 recovered. In theory from that group (but I don't think it works as simply as that). Anyway, combined = 1058; 426 dead of 1058 is 40% mortality. So, 10 days ago, there were 2117 confirmed cases; @ 40% mortality, this would predict 847 fatalities to be reported tomorrow. As said, I don't think it works like that, but we'll see.

Blogger Scuzzaman February 04, 2020 11:46 AM  

Consider the possibility that a boomer-dominated medical-pharmaceutical complex cannot avoid the conclusion that every physical malady afflicting boomers, e.g. aids, flu, a SARS, etc, is caused by some unavoidable external factor, such as a virus.

Because the last thing boomers are capable of is accepting their responsibility for fucking up their own bodies with their self-destructive extended adolescence.

But as with all boomer’s self serving delusions, it ain’t necessarily so.

The everything is caused by a virus and cured by a pill narrative feeds off and reinforces everything that’s wrong with boomers.

Blogger Uncompliant February 04, 2020 7:04 PM  

about midnight GMT 04 Feb 2020:

Coronavirus update:
- 24,550 confirmed cases worldwide
- 23,214 suspected cases
- 492 fatalities
- 3,064 in serious/critical condition
- 892 recovered
- Vast majority of cases in China
- 25 countries reporting cases

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Blogger Uncompliant February 05, 2020 7:02 PM  

about midnight GMT 05 Feb 2020:
Coronavirus update:
- 28,276 confirmed cases worldwide
- 24,702 suspected cases
- 565 fatalities
- 3,863 in serious/critical condition
- 1,153 recovered
- 25 countries reporting cases

Blogger Vaughan Williams February 06, 2020 4:58 AM  

Plugging numbers into my simulator and comparing to the numbers posted above, the conclusion am coming to is that this is much, much much worse than they are telling us.

Blogger Vaughan Williams February 06, 2020 5:04 AM  

Based on the numbers given, it looks like a reasonable extrapolation is, for the sum total of all dead so far, a 100-fold number of people showing symptoms and spreading the infection. If 500 died, then 50,000 are about to hit that 50% chance of dying. If 50,000 people have died, then 5 million are already on course to take that 50% roll of the dice.

I tried different sets of numbers, but small tweaks didn't make much difference. Numbers I used in the simulation are: Incubation period 5 days, Infectiousness period 15 days, mortality 40% on the 20th day after infection, and everyone in the infectious stage infects one other person every day. I made the simulation as conservative as possible and the results are still quite alarming.

Blogger Vaughan Williams February 06, 2020 5:14 AM  

25,000 confirmed plus 25,000 suspected cases and a current death toll of 500 is pretty close to the model, and implies 19,000 dead and 2.3 million sick 2 weeks from now. This is using a mortality rate of 32 percent.

Blogger Akulkis February 06, 2020 5:43 AM  

The number of confirmed cases is a gross understatement, as to become a confirmed case, one must

a) be admitted to a hospital (increasingly unlikely, as the number arriving at the hospitals each day exceed the numbers of newly available beds)

AND THEN
b) be one of the small percentage who are tested with one of that day's allotment of test strips (typically a few dozen OR FEWER per day at each hospital)

So, how many are dying in the hospitals each day who were never tested? We don't know.
Reports are that they are far in excess of the number being tested.

How many are turned back at the hospital due to all the beds being filled? We don't know.
Reports are that this number is tremendously higher than the numbers admitted to the hospitals each day.

Of those told to go back home because the hospital is full, how many then die at home, without ever being diagnosed, and are counted as cause of death "pneumonia" (which, like all of the diseases with a Latin name, is really just a presentation symptom, not a disease-causing organism or virus)

Blogger Azure Amaranthine February 06, 2020 11:13 AM  

Our medical systems would fold too under that level of strain. We have to depend on our lesser racial susceptibility and hopefully better quarantine capability to keep those numbers low enough that we don't also end up in the homecare mambo.

Blogger Akulkis February 06, 2020 11:45 AM  

"hopefully better quarantine capability"

You mean like how Ebola-nurse, who damn well know exactly why she was told to quarantine herself and didnt, wasn't put up against a wall and shot?

Because that's what it's going to take to get the population of our country (a significant portion of whom, in earlier centuries, would have died in childhood due to self-inflicted stupidity) to obey a quarantine without being physically locked inside their houses by nailing boards over all of their windows and doors, and/or removing all the wheels from their cars.

Blogger Vaughan Williams February 06, 2020 12:26 PM  

Saw an article yesterday about a white guy who survived corona. Seemed like it was still a nasty sickness for him.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine February 06, 2020 2:50 PM  

"wasn't put up against a wall and shot?"

I'd love to personally be the commissar for that. We are agreed, that kind of f***ery doesn't just deserve death but require it quickly and gleefully.

Blogger Uncompliant February 06, 2020 7:12 PM  

About midnight GMT 06 Feb 2020
Coronavirus update:
- 31,436 confirmed cases worldwide
- 24,702 suspected cases
- 635 fatalities
- 4,664 in serious/critical condition
- 1,337 recovered
- Most cases in China
- 25 countries reporting cases
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

A few red flags: Looking at the list of provinces, it seems odd -- to say the least -- that all the deaths are in Hubei province
(including Wuhan). Really? Death only stalks Hubei?

Zhejiang province, for example, has 950 or so confirmed cases (and has had hundreds for several days now) and yet 0 deaths. N'ah, not buying that. Hong Kong has one death and only 24 cases.

As mentioned in the new thread posted today above, the virus is able to do math. That strange ability continues today. Deaths announced go up almost exactly each day to be around 2% of however many new cases are announced for the day. Today: 635 deaths divided by 31,436 cases = 2.0199%

So, deaths are keeping a strange approx 2.0% pace with the newly announced confirmed cases? N'ah, not buying that.

I'm getting the impression that the numbers are just being picked out of thin air. Let's experiment: I hereby predict tomorrow's numbers to be: 34,856 cases and reported deaths to be 698.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 06, 2020 11:12 PM  

Uncompliant wrote:As mentioned in the new thread posted today above, the virus is able to do math. That strange ability continues today. Deaths announced go up almost exactly each day to be around 2% of however many new cases are announced for the day. Today: 635 deaths divided by 31,436 cases = 2.0199%

So, deaths are keeping a strange approx 2.0% pace with the newly announced confirmed cases? N'ah, not buying that.

Some clerk was ordered to post ``data'' showing 2% mortality. The clerk should have asked ``2% of what?''

Blogger Mr.MantraMan February 07, 2020 8:42 AM  

If we are getting produced info that those hospitals are just minimal care quarantine camps, how do we think the average Chinese fella thinks of his odds between staying in place or going to where the CCP has concentrated the Corona-Chan and then a burn pit funeral.

Blogger Uncompliant February 07, 2020 8:46 AM  

@ Omnious .. LOL. Yes. In all seriousness, though, under evil totalitarian "utopias," clerks don't ask questions and officials don't provide clarifications even if questions are asked. Asking questions is a sign of dangerous impertinence, immorality and a failure to exhibit one's full personal subservience to and solidarity with the People. And the official can't clarify because clear and precise instructions inhibit the official's ability to deflect blame or claim credit depending on how it goes.

Blogger Brett baker February 07, 2020 9:02 AM  

+1

Blogger furor kek tonicus ( according to the 13th Amendment, Slavery is neither Cruel nor Unusual: MSAGA ) February 07, 2020 9:15 AM  

15. Azimus January 29, 2020 1:56 PM
What a horrid thing to say.


...

are you new here?

we were Deplorable before Hillary made being Deplorable cool.


154. Wolfman February 03, 2020 12:14 PM
Never forget: When potentially millions of lives were at stake the media decided that is was more important to call whites racist


i'm perfectly happy executing all of these health board honkeys who are more concerned with "Asian racism" than actually taking effective measures about, you know, public health.



as noted in the other thread, the doctor responsible for breaking the news about Corona Chan has died of Corona Chan ... age 33.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-doctor-who-issued-early-warning-on-virus-dies-11581019816

Dr. Li was later interrogated by party disciplinary officials and hospital management, who accused him of spreading rumors and forced him to write a self-criticism, he told the newspaper.

“They told me not to publish any information about this online,” Dr. Li told the Beijing Youth Daily in late January. “Later, the epidemic started to spread noticeably. I’d personally been treating someone who was infected, and whose family got infected, and so then I got infected.”
...
In the early days, he recalled, he didn’t wear any protective gear.
...
he was infected, and was hospitalized on Jan. 12
...
Chinese state media reported Thursday night that Dr. Li’s heart had stopped at around 9:30 p.m., and that he was immediately put on life support. The hospital where Dr. Li was being treated later said authorities were still fighting to keep him alive and then announced his death at 2:58 a.m. Friday.




Arise, ye who refuse to be slaves!

Blogger Crew February 07, 2020 9:43 AM  

And now they have 400+ million people on lock down, all for a measly 635 dead?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-400-million-people-lockdown-guangzhou-joins-quarantine

Blogger Unknown February 07, 2020 10:03 AM  

Welcome.

Blogger Iron Spartan February 07, 2020 10:24 AM  

Second order effects are starting as companies who are reliant on Chinese supplies are being told that future slow boat shipments will be delayed.

Just in time manufacturing reliant on international supply chains is about to come crashing down. Given average lead times, we have about 6-8 weeks before it starts causing serious economic damage.

Blogger Wazdakka February 07, 2020 10:28 AM  

Would be interesting to know what numbers the crematoriums can handle. Maybe there is some historical data which could help.

Blogger Katusov February 07, 2020 10:49 AM  

Zerohedge is reporting that 400 million (yes million) Chinese citizens are now under lockdown. That's almost 30% of the entire population. Something has got them scared. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-400-million-people-lockdown-guangzhou-joins-quarantine

Blogger Lazarus February 07, 2020 11:07 AM  

If Corona-chan was to equal the spanish flu as a pandemic, 30% of the population would be infected with 3-6%dead.

For 7 billion people that would be 2.1 billion infected with 24-42 million dead.

(others maths may vary)

Blogger Mr.MantraMan February 07, 2020 11:16 AM  

Denninger is making good points about sanitation and or lack of it due to culture, of course that does not explain our urban shitholes, so we will see.

Blogger Crew February 07, 2020 11:18 AM  

@185: Damn. If they can lock down 400 million people surely we can round up and deport 60 million illegals.

Blogger Akulkis February 07, 2020 11:19 AM  

"Just in time manufacturing reliant on international supply chains is about to come crashing down. Given average lead times, we have about 6-8 weeks before it starts causing serious economic damage."

The only way the healing begins is to first cut off the limb being consumed by gangrene.

Fortunately, manufacturing is like a starfish -- cut off an arm, and in time, a new one will grow back.

Any tool & die manufacturer with production still all stateside is going to be making a mint off of all these businesses that moved their production to China.

It's going to be nice seeing American manufacturers extracting top dollar out of all the traitorous ones.

I expect to see a domestic boom in manufacturing of all sorts of machine tools -- presses, lathes, milling machines, CNC machines, you name it, as all of that hardware they stupidly shipped over China is never coming back without sending the army there to capture it.... and even if China lost 80% of their population, that would still be just plain suicidal for us to attempt.

Blogger xevious2030 February 07, 2020 11:22 AM  

As Vox says, no one really knows what is actually going on in China. Given the outbreak in China, infected, and the lack of great outbreak outside of China, this stands out. If the mortality numbers are even remotely close, a comparison in the US is 3k-49k deaths per year in the US related to the flu. A comparison of the confirmed cases in Hubei versus the rest of China also stands out.

Blogger TontoBubbaGoldstein February 07, 2020 11:27 AM  

If one believes that "Actions speak louder than words.", as I do; this thing is way worse than they are letting on.

Old:The Walking Dude
New:The Wokking Dude

Blogger Akulkis February 07, 2020 11:32 AM  

"Would be interesting to know what numbers the crematoriums can handle. Maybe there is some historical data which could help."

Check with the Holoskeptics. They've already done that work, so as to show that cremation could have been done on only < 10% of the dead claimed by the ((("prison for anybody who publicly disagrees with 6-gorillion!!!" crowd))).

Blogger furor kek tonicus ( according to the 13th Amendment, Slavery is neither Cruel nor Unusual: MSAGA ) February 07, 2020 11:35 AM  

183. Iron Spartan February 07, 2020 10:24 AM
Given average lead times, we have about 6-8 weeks before it starts causing serious economic damage.



you clearly have no idea how the GDP formula works.

reducing Imports translates immediately to a higher GDP.


186. Lazarus February 07, 2020 11:07 AM
(others maths may vary)



if, as is purported, Corona-chan is much more dangerous to East Asian males than other populations then the global number will need to be adjusted down.

otoh, Dr. Li was hardly elderly. and he should have been getting cared for at the hospital with the most experience and expertise in these patients.

that's not good.

Blogger Zander Stander February 07, 2020 11:36 AM  

Now that was completely unnecessary!

Blogger Crew February 07, 2020 11:37 AM  

@186: Your math seems weak today.

Did you mean 3-6% of the infected would be dead or 3-6% of the whole population?

In either case your numbers are too low.

Blogger Akulkis February 07, 2020 11:44 AM  

@186 Lazarus.

Unlike flu, it appears that once infected, you stay infected (like chicken pox)... and unlike chicken pox, you continue to shed and spread the virus.

Therefore, 100% infection rate is inevitable if it's not contained. That means once infected, never leaving a quarantined zone. And if this thing can still be harbored in bats.... well then, it's simply not containable, and therefore everyone WILL get it sooner or later (unless they die of something else in the near future).

The implications... sounds like something right out of the Book of Revelations.

Blogger Noah B. February 07, 2020 11:46 AM  

You've got to wonder if the CCP is taking this opportunity to kill political dissidents, especially if people mysteriously dying and disappearing has become the norm.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 07, 2020 11:50 AM  

@178, odds are good that neither the bureaurat nor the clerk care about the details, anyway. They know it's a lie, they know we know it's a lie. It would never occur to them that we might believe the lie, because in their world, no one would ever not lie, no one ever believes anything.

Blogger carnaby February 07, 2020 12:12 PM  

The increases in both the infections and deaths appear to be either quadratic or cubic with time. In which cases the rates are increasing linearly or quadratically. The infections and deaths are definitely NOT increasing exponentially.

I have no idea what the implications for this is.

Blogger Uncompliant February 07, 2020 12:26 PM  

@ Ominous. Yep, very true. More of us here in the US need to start understanding this; our government lies; all governments do. Once you realize that, everything is just easier. One can apply the lesson to other aspects of life. For example, corporations lie. It's important to stop being surprised when you find out that, no, this product will NOT magically make you thin and young and hard and healthy and/or whatever else.

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