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Thursday, February 06, 2020

Okay, that would be bad

There is a possibility that the actual numbers for Corona-chan are considerably larger than the reported numbers:
As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures, but are eerily in line with predictions from a respected scientific journal.

As early as Jan. 26, netizens were reporting that Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker" was briefly showing data on the novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China that was much higher than official estimates, before suddenly switching to lower numbers. Taiwanese netizen Hiroki Lo that day reported that Tencent and NetEase were both posting "unmodified statistics," before switching to official numbers in short order.

On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), the Tencent webpage showed confirmed cases of the Wuhan virus in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
I do find it unlikely that the death rate is 16 percent instead of 2 percent, though. If that were the case, more people outside of China would have died already.

Labels:

92 Comments:

Blogger Arthur Isaac February 06, 2020 8:07 AM  

I'd this is a lab variant of MERS with a CRISPR makeover than I would expect to see a similar fatality rate with a greater rate of infectiousness. MERS killed 33%.

Blogger Shimshon February 06, 2020 8:08 AM  

2% mortality is already considered pretty bad. 16% (and highly contagious) is a recipe for disaster if true. At the same time, it seems impossible to know what the actual truth is, beyond some basics.

Blogger Guitar Man February 06, 2020 8:08 AM  

The CCP has a history of squashing numbers during pandemics.

Blogger Zwiebel February 06, 2020 8:24 AM  

Actually, it would be higher, wouldn't it? Takes two weeks to die from the thing, doesn't it?

Blogger Meanoldbasterd February 06, 2020 8:26 AM  

Remember though, that's with the Chinese numbers of total sickened which may be downplayed considerably, or just downright innacurate.

Blogger Silly but True February 06, 2020 8:27 AM  

I’m reminded of Chocolate City’s most famous felon — it’s mayor Ray Nagin — lamenting during a post-Katrina grifting junket to Cuba that New Orleans couldn’t save its people from hurricanes like Castro could: marching everyone from homes ar gunpoint or shooting them if they refused to leave.

The one stereotypical benefit of totalitarian communist states: — brutal efficient control — seems to have broken down. What’s a totalitarian communist state to even do in 21st century if it can’t even contain information any more, much less be able to eradicate the town that is the source of an existential health epidemic?

Blogger Shane Bradman February 06, 2020 8:31 AM  

As with everything to do with China, the truth lies between the official story and what the anti-government faction is claiming. If 25,000 people are dead, that's one of the worst epidemics in recent history. But it's ridiculous to suggest that only 500 people are dead, because that's an insignificant figure, especially for China's population. If 500 was the truth, there would not be a response on this level.

Blogger Robin February 06, 2020 8:32 AM  

Anecdotally the virus seems both more infectious to and deadly to males of Chinese heritage, which makes the differing mortality rates possible. Both racist and sexist, decidedly not woke!

A couple of sources:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

https://vdare.com/articles/do-you-know-all-coronavirus-victims-appear-to-be-chinese-thought-not

Blogger Salt February 06, 2020 8:34 AM  

"If that were the case, more people outside of China would have died already."

Outside of China? Meaning non-Chinese (Asian) What of the information saying Asian is more susceptible to CC?

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 06, 2020 8:36 AM  

I do find it unlikely that the death rate is 16 percent instead of 2 percent, though. If that were the case, more people outside of China would have died already.
The real Chinese death rate is the death rate with no medical care, in unheated buildings, in winter. The Western death rate is what you get with basic life support and central heating. 16% versus 2% might be plausible.

Blogger Thad Tuiol February 06, 2020 8:43 AM  

Seems that if you're reasonably fit and healthy AND you get immediate access to Western levels of healthcare (IV antibiotics, intubation, oxygen tanks, nice clean hospitals, etc.) you stand a good chance of surviving. If not, then your chances dip significantly.

Blogger Jeff aka Orville February 06, 2020 8:44 AM  

On Chris Martenson's Youtube report yesterday, he noted the official numbers so closely matched his own predictive model, that he wondered if China wasn't using a model itself to create counts for the public.

Blogger Homesteader February 06, 2020 8:46 AM  

Unless the virus was especially pathogenic to Asians; something about the ACE2 pathway making them more susceptible to infection.

Blogger Johnny February 06, 2020 8:46 AM  

To talk like it is global warming, not yet settled science. Lets start out by saying two percent or more lethal.

Both genetic studies and where it got started support that it is a manufactured product, part of some germ warfare stuff. One odd suggestion is that maybe it is an antidote to a germ warfare weapon. An expected to be less lethal virus made to be given to your own population to build immunity. And of all things, there is some reason to believe that the Chinese are more susceptible than other race groups. That they developed a weapon that would best be used to kill their own population,

No symptoms for a long time when you catch this. That makes it more contagious. But given the strength of the Chinese reaction, it would seem likely that it is higher than two percent, maybe a lot higher.

Blogger losemoneyfast February 06, 2020 8:47 AM  

Perhaps 16% is the rate if you do not get oxygen when the pneumonia kicks in. At over 150,000 cases there are not enough oxygen apparatuses handy.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 06, 2020 8:47 AM  

I think it's been obvious from the beginning that the official numbers were absurdly low. They have only been counting a fraction of the cases in the fraction of the population that make it to a hospital.

Last Monday I was guessing actual cases were close to half a million. That's 1/20th of the 11 million in Wuhan, so it might have been a low guess then. Half a million is only 19 doublings, if I'm remembering my powers of 2 correctly.

Blogger Ora Tevzre February 06, 2020 8:48 AM  

The end of the Silk Road 2.0 ?

Blogger borsabil February 06, 2020 8:59 AM  

100% the CCP are lying, We've gone from a limited restriction on movements in Wuhan to a total lock down in Hubei and a shutdown of the whole country over a period of less than 2 weeks. Why? Because of a virus infecting less than 30K leading to the death of a few hundred Chinamen? Please.

- I do find it unlikely that the death rate is 16 percent instead of 2 percent, though. If that were the case, more people outside of China would have died already.

The people outside of China are receiving state of the art medical attention, the people in Wuhan are being sealed in their own homes behind welded steal bars, and the ones who do make it to hospital are being told solly no loom.

Blogger Brett baker February 06, 2020 9:02 AM  

"He tragically died before we could save his troublesome ass."

Blogger Hammerli 280 February 06, 2020 9:10 AM  

I'm not sure about the death rate. 2% is probably correct, IF you get good medical care. We may be seeing just how bad the PRC's medical system really is.

The infection numbers? Almost certainly lowballed, most likely by an order of magnitude. The area of quarantine argues that the Communist government is a lot more worried than they will admit.

Thinking about it, this is one problem with statist regimes. They will consistently understate problems to save face, and therefore cannot get ahead of the issue.

Blogger Robert Browning February 06, 2020 9:10 AM  

The virus, the Hong Kong protests, the Uighurs, the detention of Meng Wanzhou are all inter-related. Western spy agencies now have backdoor access to all cellphone communications and want the same access from Huawei equipment. China is resisting. Don't believe me, how did King Salman get the pictures of Jeff Bezos girlfriend or the who and where of Khashoggi? Kushner traded with Salman, support for the Kushner peace deal in exchange for spy software.

Blogger Oswald February 06, 2020 9:28 AM  

I do find it unlikely that the death rate is 16 percent instead of 2 percent, though. If that were the case, more people outside of China would have died already.

Perhaps governments outside China are lying also. I mean would they lie about such a thing?

Blogger Fuzzums Wuzzums February 06, 2020 9:36 AM  

I don't trust Taiwan with anything pertaining to China. They quickly shifted blame to Tencent, then to users tampering with the images, then to a Hong Kong study.

Data from Tencent has to come from somewhere, so if they messed up then whomever inputs said data messed up. I doubt all hospital workers just so happened to input the allegedly correct data at the same time, one month after the pandemic started and the governmental media gag-order was issued.

"According to multiple sources in Wuhan, many coronavirus patients are unable to receive treatment and die outside of hospitals.

A severe shortage of test kits also leads to a lower number of diagnosed cases of infection and death. In addition, there have been many reports of doctors being ordered to list other forms of death instead of coronavirus to keep the death toll artificially low."

If they're unable to get treatment then that means they're unable to get diagnosed, then that means the "multiple sources" are wrong.

Test kits don't cure, nor help in treatment. Treatment for viral infections is identical. These kits are only useful in epidemiological studies.

Causes of death (or causes of hospitalization) do not have a special "Infection by Wuhan Coronarovirus" section. This data is standardized world-wide so a doctor following standard procedure will write pneumonia/flu/other viral infection as cause of death first, then he has to specify if the virus was identified or not. The standardized data does not require the type of virus, just whether or not it was identified. If kits are low then that means not many Wuhan Coronarovirus were identified which means doctors are obliged by law (worldwide) to say "unidentified virus".

Blogger Aquinasfan February 06, 2020 9:40 AM  

The high death toll might be accounted for because it's been designed (nature or otherwise) to kill Asian men.



Me love you long time!

Blogger Dr Caveman February 06, 2020 9:43 AM  

You can see the real infection rate more accurately reflected in the number of infected among evacuees:
Belgium, 1/9
Japan, 3/200
South Korea, 11/368

These numbers are statistically impossible with the reported infection rates

Blogger Out of Nod February 06, 2020 9:45 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Rabid Ratel February 06, 2020 9:46 AM  

Never trust the official version.

Blogger Uncompliant February 06, 2020 10:07 AM  

From AnonConservative yesterday:

https://www.anonymousconservative.com/blog/news-briefs-02-05-2020-2/

Funeral homes burning bodies 24/7 to cremate bodies.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/funeral-home-worker-in-wuhan-epicenter-of-coronavirus-we-are-working-24-7-to-cremate-bodies_3227432.html

Assume this is true. For reference, a quick internet search shows that Chicago has about 1,000 funeral homes. Assume each can cremate bodies. Yeah, no need for them to be working 24/7 to cremate about 500 bodies.

And second article from AnonConser:


And "death smog" over the city
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/fears-thick-death-smog-over-21426098

Blogger Mr.MantraMan February 06, 2020 10:12 AM  

Or Chinese men have been breathing Chinese air all their lives and have weakened defenses against a viral flu that targets the lung function.

Blogger Uncompliant February 06, 2020 10:18 AM  

Hat Tip to Spandrell: https://twitter.com/thespandrell

The virus can do math --

Spandrell links retweets:
https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1225404722380787712
CoronaVirus Chronicles Italy
@2019ncovN

The death percentages remain constant over time. As the infected increase, the dead always grow with the same ratio. (Based, obviously on deaths/confirmed cases). Taken to two digits the numbers are pretty consistent each day. I have added those from here: https://twitter.com/2019ncovN


李隽
@juanli324
· 11h
神奇的病毒,还是个数学高手
1月30日:170死/确诊7821=2.1%, 2.17
1月31日:213死/确诊9800=2.1%, 2.17
2月1日:259死/确诊11880=2.1%, 2.18
2月2日:304死/确诊14401=2.1%, 2.11
2月3日:361死/确诊17238=2.1%, 2.09
2月4日:429死/确诊20471=2.1%, 2.10
2月5日:493死/确诊24441=2.1% 2.02
2月6日:564死/确诊28605=2.1% 1.97

Blogger Glaivester February 06, 2020 10:22 AM  

@4: I think two weeks is the period between exposure and the onset of symptoms. Not certain if we have a time from onset of symptoms to death.

Blogger Rakshasa February 06, 2020 10:28 AM  

The 2% figure based on confirmed cases of infection and death isn't reliable as it takes people some time to die, and the number of people who are infected yet do not get diagnosed.

Essentially we should assume the worst and take action, and worry about what's inside the black box later.

Blogger LR27 February 06, 2020 10:43 AM  

The thought came to my head that a pandemic that targets Chinese males could be judgment for aborting all the girls in China. Not that interpreting providence is ever authoritative outside of natural law.

Blogger Doktor Jeep February 06, 2020 10:47 AM  

Supposedly most of the victims were over 60.
This may be the creeping death except it's coming for boomers instead of firstborn sons.

Blogger Crew February 06, 2020 10:48 AM  

The numbers coming out of China do not make sense.

For example, Hong Kong has 22 confirmed cases, and one death.

Meanwhile, just across the border in Guandong they have 970 confirmed cases and 0 deaths!

HK has about a 4% fatality rate so far ... it is highly unlikely that Guangdong is doing better.

https://wuflu.live/

Blogger Jeff aka Orville February 06, 2020 10:52 AM  

Denninger brought up something interesting this morning, the R0 for cases in the US is below 1. He posits that is because hygiene habits here are much better than most other places (San Francisco excluded). Apparently there is a high viral load in feces, and this is not good for street-shitters and those who wipe with their hands.

The upshot is that turd world countries will be monkey hammered by Corona-chan.

Blogger Cassander February 06, 2020 11:01 AM  

There's the idea being float around that it was more than 1 "vial" that got loose, that is, different nasties, which may explain the Wuhan apocalyptic lockup and mild outside death rate. Also, contacts in mainland China suggest infection rate outside Wuhan were over 0.1 percent (>1million) early this week, just by counting sick acquaintances.

Blogger Nate February 06, 2020 11:02 AM  

Corona Virus may well be China's very own Chernobyl... with the same economic and cultural backlash.

over the last few months the US has busted several Chinese nationals stealing bioweapon tech from US labs.

It appears that China is getting what it deserves. good and hard.

How savory is it... that the bugmen are fumigating themselves?

Blogger xevious2030 February 06, 2020 11:11 AM  

“If that were the case, more people outside of China would have died already.”

In a natural occurrence, that would be the expected result. Maybe being Han might not be enough of a factor. Being engineered, combined with the low spread outside of China, there is reason to consider the lack of spread abroad, even by ethnic Chinese, may be intentional. Which trickles down to mortality. Even lack of interaction by ethnicities, there should have been more crossover if natural.

Given the disparity in spread, and the shipment shenanigans, the simplest explanation, next to an odd natural occurrence, is that China “pirated” (if imaginable) something they did not understand the ramifications of/were lied to about. The next simple is they developed something that targeted themselves, to make a vaccine to that specific engineered virus, and, oops. Then someone else released. Then natural.

Given they can sink carriers, have industry, and sheer numbers, the odds something was developed to change the relative and relevant dynamics?

Blogger Iron Spartan February 06, 2020 11:16 AM  

I'm only surprised that China hadn't been intentionally sending infected people to Hong Kong and areas with a lot of Uighurs before the lockdown started.

Blogger Noah B. February 06, 2020 11:23 AM  

2019 nCoV is spreading quickly and the reports of individual cases I've read show that people are often dying 7-8 days after they get sick. Some are dying sooner. I think we'll get a better estimate of the mortality rate if we compare the number of reported dead (565 as of 06/02/2020) to the number reported sick, say, five days ago (11,374). This is somewhat arbitrary lookback time but it should give us a better estimate than either the official numbers or the scare numbers. That's a mortality rate of about 5% with the medical care available in China. Also in a large outbreak, it's not reasonable to expect that the quality of healthcare in the US would be significantly better than that.

Blogger Silly but True February 06, 2020 11:43 AM  

“ HK has about a 4% fatality rate so far ... it is highly unlikely that Guangdong is doing better.”

Guangdong has magic soil!

Blogger Noah B. February 06, 2020 11:45 AM  

And this is just a single data point, but the doctor who helped alert Chinese authorities to the 2019nCoV has died after being hospitalized for three weeks. He was 34.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/original-china-virus-whistleblower-doctor-dies

Blogger Scuzzaman February 06, 2020 11:56 AM  

The Chinese authorities have as much reason to exaggerate the numbers as to minimise them.

We have no way of knowing which way they have chosen to jump since we don’t know their current priorities but a low death toll suggests they may have chosen to exaggerate the infection numbers.

All such speculation is highly tentative and subject to revision, of course.

Blogger Scuzzaman February 06, 2020 11:57 AM  

The Chinese authorities have as much reason to exaggerate the numbers as to minimise them.

We have no way of knowing which they have chosen, but a low death toll suggests they may have chosen to exaggerate.

All such speculation is highly tentative and subject to revision, of course.

Blogger Fuzzums Wuzzums February 06, 2020 12:00 PM  

Doktor Jeep wrote:Supposedly most of the victims were over 60.

So you're saying we should leave the gates opened for Wuhan refugees... interesting.

Blogger kurt9 February 06, 2020 12:15 PM  

We will all see in the next 2-3 weeks since only now there are enough cases outside of China where the numbers are not so easily massaged. I am now reading that the disease progression in any given individual plays itself out over a 3-4 week period. If so, we will not know the true magnitude of this thing until the end of this month.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 06, 2020 12:31 PM  

Mr.MantraMan wrote:Or Chinese men have been breathing Chinese air all their lives and have weakened defenses against a viral flu that targets the lung function.
Chinese pollution is the least of it. If the situation is like Taiwan, 100% of the Mainlanders smoke.
Iron Spartan wrote:I'm only surprised that China hadn't been intentionally sending infected people to Hong Kong and areas with a lot of Uighurs before the lockdown started.
Why do you think they haven't?

Blogger CostelloM February 06, 2020 12:39 PM  

And the doctor who first tried to identify the virus - the one who signed an apology for "spreading rumors" has now died. He was only 31, a doctor, and in good health. I don't believe that 2 percent number is accurate.

Blogger tdcommenter February 06, 2020 12:40 PM  

@41 that maybe more accurate, but a simpler consistent calculation may be more useful as a way to compare it with historic events like SARS or flu outbreaks. Using a time shifted infected number makes it more subjective and less useful of a comparison.

Blogger PH February 06, 2020 12:41 PM  

Agreed. Plus let's factor in that the average American is way more unhealthy than the average Chinaman.

Blogger allyn71 February 06, 2020 1:28 PM  

There is getting to be enough cases outside of China in some of the more civilized parts of Asia. In a week or so we should be able to see through the Commie fog a lot better, then we might start getting better data about what is really going on.

Blogger Avalanche February 06, 2020 1:31 PM  

@9 "Outside of China? Meaning non-Chinese (Asian) What of the information saying Asian is more susceptible to CC?"

I would VERY much like to know WHO are the folks getting sick and the extremely few dying, outside of China. The "American" who tested positive after a flight to Viet Nam was a "Vietnamese American" so, Asian.

There are approximately 50 million ethnic Chinese people living outside of China's mainland. That's a whole lotta folks apparently more susceptible: and, of course, no one is reporting total numbers and heritage of those getting sick every in the world except China.

If this is, as it seems, a weaponized virus and was weaponized, intentionally or not, to selectively affect Asian males... then without careful track of the heritage across the globe; we're missing a major pie of this puzzle!

Blogger David F February 06, 2020 1:33 PM  

Interestingly, https://aqicn.org/map/china/ does not have a reporting station for Wuhan. Looking at the nearest ones, the air quality has to be pretty dreadful... but not the worst in China, by far.

Could the greater impact on Chinese males be due to them spending more time out in the polluted air, and women being more diligent about staying indoors when the air is worst?

If there is a correlation to air quality... it's going to get much much worse as this spreads north.

Blogger Avalanche February 06, 2020 1:34 PM  

@21 "did King Salman get the pictures of Jeff Bezos girlfriend"

It's already come out that the BROTHER of Jeff's girlfriend sold them to Salman.

Blogger Newscaper312 February 06, 2020 1:44 PM  

Instapundit has a link to an article on US healthcare being too dependent on Chinese suppliers.
https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/357357/
Interesting to see quite a lot of Insty commenters mocking "free trade".

Blogger Crew February 06, 2020 1:49 PM  

That's a mortality rate of about 5% with the medical care available in China.

Well, that compares well with the numbers from Hong Kong (22 confirmed, 1 dead) but I still think the Chinese are lying about the numbers.

Looks at those from Guangdong and Jhejian or Henan. The first two are showing 900 confirmed but zero dead. Henan 851 confirmed and 2 dead.

That. Does. Not. Compute!

Blogger Annabel Lee February 06, 2020 1:54 PM  

They wouldn’t have quarantined 50 million plus people, have crematoriums working 24/7, be spraying the streets, be frantically building “hospitals”, limiting testing kits, etc., if the real numbers of infected and dead were the official figures.

Blogger Annabel Lee February 06, 2020 1:56 PM  

https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/

Blogger Gen. Kong February 06, 2020 1:57 PM  

Ora Tevzre wrote:

The end of the Silk Road 2.0 ?

You could be right about that - and it's a logical motivation of DeepState, (((Soros))) and other Prometheans (not a bad term for the wicked oligarchs as it does describe their essential rebellion against the created order of the universe). There is considerable evidence that this is a bio-weapon which is targeted at Asian males. Keep in mind that there are two additional viruses raging over China at present which effect the food supply: Swine and Bird flus have been devastating pig and poultry operations there for months now.

In the comments section of AC a few days ago, there was a link to a very interesting theory about all this which is posted at reddit

https://old.reddit.com/r/Wuhan_Flu/comments/exxngo/interesting_message_sent_to_me_in_chinese/

Click past the usual ADL blue-check warning BS to get to it.

Remember how the (((Elders of Wye))) - all Prometheans - were going to move their criminal and genocidal enterprises to China originally and they're now furious at Xi since he evidently rejected the plan? Also keep in mind that "our bestest friend in the world" signed but never ratified the bio-weapons treaty (though it must be admitted that such treaties are scarcely more than scraps of paper).

Yes it could be Chinese Chernobyl moment and it's true the Chinese medical system is nowhere near as advanced as that of neighboring Taiwan or Japan (who have first rate facilities and staffing). Even so those boasting of Kwa-Bananaland's sooper-dooper medical system - with all of its many 75 IQ doctors plus numerous others who fill the diversity mandates and lower costs for Wall Street looting enterprises - should not be so confident that some Board-certified Dr. Barbequetta Chickendra will be able to even read simple instructions on dispensing any needed medications - much less actually practice medicine.

Blogger LZ February 06, 2020 2:06 PM  

The Tencent numbers are bunk. Recovered is the lowest number? It comes from deranged anti-CCP sources.

China's coronavirus numbers aren't perfect, but they are better than the DNC's Iowa count and probably better than San Francisco or Detroit's crime stats.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 06, 2020 2:50 PM  

Scuzzaman wrote:The Chinese authorities have as much reason to exaggerate the numbers as to minimise them.

We have no way of knowing which way they have chosen to jump since we don’t know their current priorities but a low death toll suggests they may have chosen to exaggerate the infection numbers.


If the CCP was faking this outbreak to achieve something like make it easier to clamp down on dissent, they would be playing up the numbers, telling us how terrible it is, and minimizing the economic disruption. These are definitely NOT what they are doing.

Blogger Johnny February 06, 2020 2:51 PM  

>>Swine and Bird flus have been devastating pig and poultry...

Don't know about poultry, but for pigs the Chinese did it to themselves. They have been pushing the smaller scale farmers out of business and have set up very large scale pig rearing facilities.

These large pig farms are extraordinarily subject to disease problems, and the bigger the operation, the greater the risk. Nothing new about the disease, it has been around. Plus they are going to have a large number of disgruntled smaller farmers who just might find a way to sabotage the thing.

As for the human disease, what comes to mind for me as a possible is somebody who has caught the stuff and recovered, just might want to shaft the Deep State. They push people around a lot. And they do chemical warfare stuff, so the resources to do it would be there.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 06, 2020 2:53 PM  

LZ wrote:The Tencent numbers are bunk. Recovered is the lowest number? It comes from deranged anti-CCP sources.
Not necessarily. Death is quick. Recovery is a long process. If the numbers are real, we will see the recovery numbers rise significantly after the death numbers.

Blogger Noah B. February 06, 2020 3:01 PM  

We will all see in the next 2-3 weeks since only now there are enough cases outside of China where the numbers are not so easily massaged.

The Western media is just as manipulated and untrustworthy as Chinese media. If this were to develop into a catastrophic pandemic, we would keep getting bad information until we were getting no information.

Blogger Azimus February 06, 2020 3:03 PM  

Some Chinese Guy at Tencent on Monday:

"Watch what happens when I put this on the web - its going to be hirarious!"

Blogger Crew February 06, 2020 3:03 PM  

Is this the first non-Chinese death? A Philippina who does not have an obviously Chinese name.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wed-rather-die-home-chinese-citizens-rebel-against-mandatory-quarantine-lockdonw

Blogger Bernard Korzeniewicz February 06, 2020 3:19 PM  

Numbers may or may not be cooked. For Xi - who has "the mandate of Heaven" - the easiest thing to do was to distance himself and order his mandarins to fix the problem.
Xi's nervous reaction suggest the CoVir was at first reported as the end of the word event.
China's air is s*t (my daughter after 13 months can't heal her throat burned in an January Nanking air), their customs may be s*tty too.
But there is something else moving on in the dark.

Blogger Uncompliant February 06, 2020 3:29 PM  

@46 -- the doctor died after three weeks. And, in theory, the other doctors at that hospital wanted and tried mightily to save a fellow doctor but couldn't. That is sobering.

Blogger Uncompliant February 06, 2020 3:30 PM  

sorry, that should have been @43...

Blogger xevious2030 February 06, 2020 3:39 PM  

“The Tencent numbers are bunk. […] It comes from deranged anti-CCP sources.”

That gets factored in. Their site, yesterday, had advertising (wherever that comes from) of masks with the Taiwan flag on them, to supposedly dissuade mainlanders from making a run on them.

Blogger peacefulposter February 06, 2020 4:04 PM  

There is a possibility that the actual numbers for Corona-chan are considerably larger than the reported numbers.

The massive reaction by the Chinese govt, including shutting down entire cities, would support this thesis.

Blogger Meng Greenleaf February 06, 2020 4:06 PM  

I suppose it's worth reiterating that, similar to influenza, the coronavirus infects via mouth, nose, and eyes. It's best to have a pair of swimming goggles onhand, together with a sealed mask. Going outside with a cotton facemask (now required by law in China) protects other people from you. It's not meant to protect you from an infected individual. You need to have a sealed mask and goggles to be best protected. I still doubt that the severity is comparable with influenza, but, maybe.

Blogger Wolfman February 06, 2020 4:26 PM  

What has me worried is that the Chinese are clearly reacting in ad-hoc manner in the way they would to an accidental release (where they didn't initially know WHICH virus had been released)

However the western clown media seems to be running a pre planned script, downplaying the initial outbreak and attempting to slow the International response.

Blogger Kiwi February 06, 2020 5:18 PM  

Too many variable that we don't have data for. For example, if HK has a 3% mortality, it might simply be because those most vulnerable, who had the money and means to move, headed there asap because better odds at a hospital bed.

All I have really paid attention to is the recover rate, which we can now start to use, and whether the people dying had an underlying medical issue or other factor that puts them at vulnerability to ALL FLU VIRUSES. These are the, I need a vaccine or my odds aren't good, types.

My understanding is the person who died outside of China, in the Philippines, was not elderly but middle aged, however he DID HAVE a pre-existing medical condition.

Call me when fit people start dying, until then I'll be busy making preparations, so WHEN it gets here I can keep vulnerable family members and friends, in comfortable isolation until a vaccine is developed.

Blogger Akulkis February 06, 2020 5:22 PM  

I think we're all missing the obvious here.

This is obviously a plot by Big Medical Devices to goose up the price after a market glut of face masks cause by an accidental production overrun of a few dozen billion.

/sarc

Blogger Akulkis February 06, 2020 5:25 PM  

@74 Wolfman

That's absolutely correct.

China: "Lock down all the major cities!" "Build new multi-thousand bed hospitals... BY THE END OF THE WEEK!"

Western press: "there's been a mild, flu-like outbreak. Don't worry"

China: "People are collapsing in the street."

Western Press: "Nevermind that, those are just old people, pining for the fjords."

Blogger Ingot9455 February 06, 2020 5:32 PM  

Many Filipinos have some Chinese ancestry from Chinese traders sailing down to the trade hub in Manila.

Blogger Uncompliant February 06, 2020 7:17 PM  

Following up on my @30 above: virus is still doing math.

Today: 31,439 confirmed cases and 639 deaths = 2.03%.

I predict tomorrow's numbers to be: 34,859 cases and 698 reported deaths.

Blogger John Rockwell February 06, 2020 7:25 PM  

LR27 wrote:The thought came to my head that a pandemic that targets Chinese males could be judgment for aborting all the girls in China. Not that interpreting providence is ever authoritative outside of natural law.

If that is true then India shortly will also have the virus disproportionately target their males.

Since they do the same thing even worse as China in this regard.

Maybe even a 9:1 male to female ratio of mortality.

Blogger Statix February 06, 2020 7:30 PM  

It's got to be pretty bad, considering they're literally building new hospitals just for this virus.

Blogger Ted February 06, 2020 7:32 PM  

There was a story I heard that the Chicago patient had been in china a month ago before becoming ill. I don't remember the source but it stuck with me because you're infectious for so long before getting sick. Since then the 2 week number has been the incubation period predominant in the news. Time will tell.

Blogger Uncompliant February 06, 2020 8:53 PM  

Here are some numbers: 3700 people on a cruise ship; 273 suspected; 61 confirmed. This cruise ship was reported a couple-three days ago, so -- let's say -- they are at day 10? Five days incubation; two days before the first report and three since being reported.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1225589119981670402
"273 people on the cruise ship were being tested for coronavirus and all of the test results are in: 61 confirmed cases. Everyone else on the ship (about 3,700 people) will remain in quarantine in their cabin for 14 days - NHK"

Blogger Uncompliant February 06, 2020 9:12 PM  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ig1CX6WDEoA&feature=youtu.be

Here's a video from inside Wuhan; that new "hospital" is a quarantine facility; "this is not a hospital" says the official; "once you go in you cannot come out."

Blogger SciVo February 06, 2020 11:28 PM  

We know nothing. We neither know whether the CCP is counting deaths of those that were not diagnosed before they died, nor whether it is even trying to make an accurate count of those infected and alive. You might as well throw a dart at a chart and then analyze those results as analyze the data currently available to us. Heck, I would trust the latter less.

Blogger furor kek tonicus ( no need to be racist, Ratchets can Karen better than anybody ) February 07, 2020 12:24 AM  

the Wuhan doctor who alerted the world to the Corona Chan has died.

the CCP lied about his passing for almost day before having to admit it.

Blogger Michael Kingswood February 07, 2020 1:08 AM  

John Rockwell wrote:LR27 wrote:The thought came to my head that a pandemic that targets Chinese males could be judgment for aborting all the girls in China. Not that interpreting providence is ever authoritative outside of natural law.

If that is true then India shortly will also have the virus disproportionately target their males.

Since they do the same thing even worse as China in this regard.

Maybe even a 9:1 male to female ratio of mortality.


I had a similar, but more conspiratorial, thought today. What if the CCP had been noting for a while how badly the one-child policy had screwed up their demographics, and looking forward saw the big problems so many unmarried and unmarriable men would cause.

Then someone in the party chain of command proposed a solution to cull the herd a bit, complete with deniability.

And it was approved.

Blogger Zwiebel February 07, 2020 2:54 AM  

I have the distinct impression that China is working on a virus that will kill all non-Chinese. This one was a test and it escaped.

I'm major creeped out by the Chinese.

Blogger CostelloM February 07, 2020 4:03 AM  

Wherever this thing came from it most certainly did not come from any organ of the Chinese government. Releasing a virus that targets Chinese males when your government is made up of... Chinese males? Aside from that obvious point there's another. The CCP wants to keep power, period. They don't really care what else you do so long as they keep the power. Living here you are much more free in many respects than you are in the US you just can't criticize the government. This situation is NOT helping the CCP keep power however. You've got young pretty nurses making videos on Weibo saying the communist party should be shut down and urging young men in the military to oppose them directly if they won't go. Yes this video was taken down but not before it went viral. This lady had just buried 2 of 4 grandparents and was visibly upset. A few decades ago a message like that would get you immediately disappeared but now you can't do that as easily while still pretending to be moral or concerned about "keeping order". This virus is not helpful to the current government at all and anyone who says this is something China would do to itself is insane. A weapon? Possibly. A mistake? Maybe. The one thing I will dismiss out of hand is China deliberately wanting to release this on itself. Makes about as much sense as Europe deliberately importing the Black death.

Blogger Scott February 07, 2020 10:15 AM  

A Chinaman cheating on a test? How dare you!

Blogger Daniel February 08, 2020 11:23 AM  

How many millions dis mao let die by starvation?
They could do it

Blogger Daniel February 08, 2020 11:27 AM  

Well, mao let millions die by hunger so there is that

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