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Monday, February 17, 2020

The numbers are fake

I'd already reached the same conclusion about the legitimacy of the statistics after keeping track of the official Corona-chan numbers for a few days. The spread of the disease was far too smooth to be genuine. So, as usual, the one thing we can be certain isn't true is the official story:
In terms of the virus data, the number of cumulative deaths reported is described by a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said.

Put in an investing context, that variance, or so-called r-squared value, would mean that an investor could predict tomorrow’s stock price with almost perfect accuracy. In this case, the high r-squared means there is essentially zero unexpected variability in reported cases day after day.

Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found similarly high variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman says. “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”

Real human data are never perfectly predictive when it comes to something like an epidemic, Goodman says, since there are countless ways that a person could come into contact with the virus.

For context, Goodman says a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said, “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”
About the only thing we know at this point is that non-Chinese victims are not dying at anywhere near the same rate as Chinese victims. And Occam's Razor strongly suggests that the manufactured numbers underestimate the actual ones.

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143 Comments:

Blogger Dr Caveman February 17, 2020 3:07 PM  

Biology is famous for being a messy science. This kind of accuracy is extremely unlikely to be natural.

The most reliable data we can get on infection rates is from populations not under control of the Chinese government - both cruise ships and evacuees show much higher infection rates than you'd expect based of the official numbers

Blogger Salt February 17, 2020 3:12 PM  

Maybe it's the Chinese investing in a population reduction scheme.

Blogger NO GOOGLES February 17, 2020 3:14 PM  

Communists... lying? I'm shocked and appalled.

Blogger Tanjil Bren February 17, 2020 3:17 PM  

"“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman says."

Which tells us what about the brains trust running the official story...

Blogger Jeff aka Orville February 17, 2020 3:18 PM  

Apparently a very bad set of numbers in China. The WHO just met with all the Social Media bigs to devise a lock down on any Corona virus info that does not meet the narrative.

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/who-holds-secret-talks-tech-giants-stop-spread-coronavirus-misinformation

Blogger Mocheirge February 17, 2020 3:22 PM  

Even the non-Hubei Chinese are not dying anywhere near the rate of those in Hubei. I really think that there's an unreported and lethal pandemic, and China has thus far been able to keep it quarantined in Wuhan. That disease was probably accidentally released by the virology lab back in December, and China intentionally released Corona-chan while claiming it was from the meat market in order to cover their mistake.

Official story and numbers are bunk. Conspiracy theories are more parsimonious.

Blogger Original H February 17, 2020 3:23 PM  

According to the official figures, the death rate (deaths/recoveries) in Hubei province is 20%. Outside Hubei, it's 1.6%, less than many seasonal flus.

It'd be easier to fake data in one province than world-wide.

This makes me think that something else is killing people in Hubei rather than the virus.

It could be a cover for a crackdown on dissidents. It could be a major industrial disaster like in Bhopal. I don't know. But if it's the virus, it has a really weird preference for killing people only in Hubei...

Blogger Meanoldbasterd February 17, 2020 3:33 PM  

Maybe I'm a cynic... But this serves two,purposes for the chi-coms
#1 they avoid the demographic consequences of the one child policy AND they can unite their regime against the "filthy foreign devils and their bio-weapons"

Blogger Oswald February 17, 2020 3:39 PM  

Does anyone know if there is any truth to the rumor that a Harvard Professor help set up the Chinese Lab that may have developed this virus?

Blogger Steb February 17, 2020 3:51 PM  

I've seen a few videos of guys in hazmat suits dragging away infected citizens, but you have to wonder who's doing the filming and why they're not getting arrested for it. Do the Chinese want to keep things covered up or not?

I can't imagine any motive for faking the disease, but I'm not a Chinese Communist, so maybe I wouldn't.

Blogger David Ray Milton February 17, 2020 3:52 PM  

Then again, if it’s a Chinese concocted virus, then they might have programmed it to spread and kill in a perfectly linear manner, cuz you know, Asians.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine February 17, 2020 3:57 PM  

"About the only thing we know at this point is that non-Chinese victims are not dying at anywhere near the same rate as Chinese victims."

Also that these people are stupid. I would have known to vary the numbers more to avoid being obvious before I was ten. It's not hard to foresee this kind of analysis, and even a couple of other kinds of statistical analysis to weed out fabrications.

Blogger Leoric February 17, 2020 4:04 PM  

Under such circumstances what motivation would China have at holding back real numbers?

Another question comes to mind. Has anyone seen human organizations move with any appreciable speed in a time period of three months?

I am disappointed with the amount of cheap propaganda being pushed in the nets in relation to Corona Chan. Non stop fake videos or stories.

Blogger Joe Smith February 17, 2020 4:10 PM  

What a joke. This chick sees an r^2 of 0.99 and says, "well, clearly that's fake," for Corona data, but the r^2 = 0.97 for global warming data ('temperature modifications' vs. ppm atmospheric CO2 in US land temperature records) and thinks, "that checks out."

But yes, seems like fake numbers.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia February 17, 2020 4:12 PM  

The doubling rate for both infections and deaths seem to be consistent, moving in lockstep almost, and the doubling rate seems to have slowed to 6 days, when early on it was much faster.

Fudge the stats to make it seem like a "standard" epidemic? Nah, that can't be, can it?

When there are no outliers, and the error bands are tiny, check your data, and check you formulas.

Is anyone checking? Doubtful?

Then again, the global reaction, and the draconian quarantine methods put in place, both suggest that the "powers that be" don't believe the reported numbers either.

Blogger Akulkis February 17, 2020 4:13 PM  

I'm suspecting that part of the reason that the non-Chinese who have been infected, and even the Chinese who are living overseas aren't dying much, is because there aren't high enough numbers to overwhelm the hospitals. Yet. Genetics may have something to do with it. We'll know better once the outbreak on the cruise ship is over. The last report I heard is 99 infected. I'm sure that's more than the ships infirmary can hold, and medical facilities on a cruise ship tend to be along the lines of an E.R., not an ICU.

Blogger The Poor Schmuck February 17, 2020 4:14 PM  

And Occam's Razor strongly suggests that the manufactured numbers underestimate the actual ones.

Based on some of the leaked numbers, the official figures underestimate by 10 Times reported.

Blogger Robert Browning February 17, 2020 4:20 PM  

If only Chinese die then it is a bio-weapon. With that, the question then becomes who. And then who are the people most capable of an attack on the innocent.

Blogger Gregory the Tall February 17, 2020 4:21 PM  

I thought the Chinese were so intelligent and so brilliant at maths. Now it looks they can't even fake a realistic epidemiological statistics?! Is it that Mao culled too much of the intelligentsia?

Blogger Balam February 17, 2020 4:23 PM  

M-maybe the Chinese aren't dying to Corona in big numbers after all? Though that only opens the door to the Chinese Gov purging their own people for other reasons and through other means and using Corona (I'll never remember that 'official' name) as a cover story.

Blogger FrankNorman February 17, 2020 4:28 PM  

About the only thing we know at this point is that non-Chinese victims are not dying at anywhere near the same rate as Chinese victims.

Are there any non-Chinese fatalities from this at all?

Blogger RobertT February 17, 2020 4:30 PM  

I wondered how long it would take to read this somewhere besides scientific literature. I've told several people but no one believes me.

Blogger 351wsl February 17, 2020 4:31 PM  

Is there a term similar to Occam's Razor, or Hanlon's Razor that describes the only thing we know is that the official narrative is not true?

If not, there should be.

Blogger Akulkis February 17, 2020 4:39 PM  

And I just heard on the radio, some female doctor who is an "infectious disease specialist," commenting on the U.S. citizens brought to a U.S. military base for quarantine from the cruise ship with all those cases. Among the things she said was pure forehead-door worthy: "We shouldn't stigmatize people who've been exposed."

Good God, lady, of all the people who should know that quarantine has nothing to do with stigmatizing people, it should be you!

When the 2nd revolution is over, women will not be allowed in ANY position of leadership or authority more complex than a Sunday School nursery, a K-12 classroom, or a hospital floor's worth of nurses. And forget about voting. They prove over and over and over again that they are incapable of getting past the feelz on any matter great or small, the exceptions being exclusively psychopaths.

Blogger Zander Stander February 17, 2020 4:40 PM  

Somebody is painting us a picture, as the saying goes on Wall Street.

Blogger Karen took the Kids February 17, 2020 4:43 PM  

Luckily we've unlocked the ability to identify as black women. Otherwise this news might be troublesome.

Blogger Diogenes February 17, 2020 4:49 PM  

If there isn't I'd like to propose we call it Beale's Law.

Blogger Up from the pond February 17, 2020 4:51 PM  

The masks' dropping portends the death of conspiracy theorizing. Soon there will be only conspiracy identifying.

As Eustace Mullins once hotly said: "I am not a conspiracy theorist!... I'm a conspiracy SCIENTIST."

Blogger xevious2030 February 17, 2020 4:56 PM  

Which brings in the “why?”

Considerations, values are understated, values are somehow correct, and values are overderstated. Including the possibilities that the virus is targeted, the virus has limited targeting, or the virus is not.

Playing this out as overstated, and not targeted. Assuming it isn’t for giggles. One thing that stands out is lessons learned. First, for implementing internal protocols. The second for observation of outside actors. Third is to provide expectations of a certain virus (increasing probability of preliminary misdiagnosis for a worse pathogen/response lag). Fourth is to create a sense of uncertainty/opportunity. In a large scale simulation beyond simple wargaming. Observing an opponent for something more than theoretical wargaming.

Alternately, given the similarities to Umbrella and the related videogame/movie, potentially conditioning, preconditioning.

Creating exploitable collapse. Or distraction from an unknown.

For understated and targeted. Horrendous accident, or somebody really does not like them.

Not all options or combinations, but a starter. At any rate, as the numbers are fake, the “why.” The bugpeople have their reasons, and they tend to adopt/adapt/implement, not create. Can create, but not typical. If such, "who" helps answer "why."

Blogger Original H February 17, 2020 5:09 PM  

Robert Browning wrote:If only Chinese die then it is a bio-weapon.

But it's just about only Chinese from Hubei province, not Chinese in general. As I said before, the virus looks to be a cover for something else.

FrankNorman wrote:Are there any non-Chinese fatalities from this at all?

So far, from all the info I've been able to find, all fatalities are ethnic Chinese.

Blogger Johnny February 17, 2020 5:19 PM  

The Chinese are likely to get hit harder because:

Their is some reason to believe that their biology makes them more vulnerable.

Their low quality healthcare system is going to be overwhelmed in the heavily hit areas.

People who are killed, are killed by pneumonia. Smokers are more vulnerable to it, and Chinese smoke a lot, And in some Chinese cities the pollution level will do lung damage. Also creating grater vulnerability.

Blogger Fuzzums Wuzzums February 17, 2020 5:23 PM  

I live in a formerly communist country and worked for the state for almost 2 years. Paperwork is filed based on what was expected and not on what's true. This can go either way, if the cases are less or more numerous than the predictive data then they'll reclassify patients accordingly so all the numbers add up.

I can't think of some way China can gain from faking an epidemic so I suspect the actual numbers are much higher.

The whole face mask angle is pretty weird as well. They offer almost no protection especially against a viral infection. What they do is minimize the contagion spread coming from an already infected person. At least that's what they're supposed to do. Looking at the numbers they don't seem to have made much difference.

Blogger Geir Balderson February 17, 2020 5:24 PM  

"Communists... lying? I'm shocked and appalled."

Does this mean you will never feel the Bern?

Blogger Geir Balderson February 17, 2020 5:31 PM  

And, i suppose the real story is this.

Has this Covid-19 dampened the popularity of Cervaza Corona?

Blogger Keith February 17, 2020 5:32 PM  

Gillette's Razor: The official narrative is guaranteed not to be true.

Blogger Akuma February 17, 2020 5:39 PM  

"About the only thing we know at this point is that non-Chinese victims are not dying at anywhere near the same rate as Chinese victims."

This is something I suspected last week while do research on this whole thing. Assuming the virus is manufactured, during refinement it would have been tested on samples taken from Chinese. Hence, why its not as virulent in other Ethnic groups. Its honing in on something unique to the Chinese genome.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 17, 2020 5:39 PM  

Russia's Razor: believe no rumor until it's denied.
Vox's Razor: the official story is never the truth.

Blogger Oswald February 17, 2020 5:46 PM  

Seems to me a virus scare would be a good way to cover up something else, like a purge.

Blogger Doktor Jeep February 17, 2020 5:46 PM  

Now we know the real reason why they keep telling us there are no differences in race beyond appearance.
What do they do? They lie and project.
This means race-targeting bioweapons exist, they are in development, and it's going to be a matter of who and whom.

Blogger map February 17, 2020 5:52 PM  

Oswald wrote:Does anyone know if there is any truth to the rumor that a Harvard Professor help set up the Chinese Lab that may have developed this virus?

Yes. Here is the link from the Department of Justice

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harvard-university-professor-and-two-chinese-nationals-charged-three-separate-china-related

Blogger John Rockwell February 17, 2020 5:59 PM  

@Frank Norman

80 year old Japanese woman died as far as I know from it.

Blogger Bee February 17, 2020 6:01 PM  

The coronavirus is several times more likely than flu to result in a serious pneumonia that requires the patient go on respirator for treatment. (5% of patients, vs. about 0.2-3% of flu).

So the reason for the higher death tolls in Wuhan than other regions is very simple: near the epicenter of the virus outbreak, the local Chinese hospital intensive care facilities are overwhelmed. Only a fraction of more severely afflicted patients who need oxygen can be given t; as a result, many die.

Outside of Wuhan, and especially in foreign countries, the number of patients has not overwhelmed critical care facilities, so those who need oxygen, etc. can be provided it. As a result, unless they're in the 80s or the like, they generally don't die.




Outside Wuhuan, where

Blogger Chevalier de la Terre February 17, 2020 6:14 PM  

https://paulfurber.net/bda/index.html

See the last few posts by BDAnon, some insight into Corona-chan, go back for more.

If true. It's been fun lads.

Blogger glueballs February 17, 2020 6:19 PM  

The Tokyo Marathon just notified 37,000 runners their event is cancelled without refund due to covid 19 virus and opportunistic virii like Influenza A which is making an uncharacteristic appearance late this flu season. That's a lot of tourist money to reject if the government authorities didn't believe on information the actual risks of mass exposure are significant. 2,000 Chinese nationals signing up for the marathon probably cemented the decision.

I'm flying to Tokyo on business next week and thus am monitoring the situation. Will wear my bouffant surgeons cap covering my ears/neck, anti-microbial bubble googles, 3M 7500 respirator with 2297 P100 pancake filters, heavy long-sleeve surgeons scrubs, waterproof booties inside and outside my disinfected shoes, and double nitride industrial gloves. Happy to share my kit and protocols if welcome and assistive here.

Primary two items you guys need to take on foreign travels this flu season, together with knowledge, are Clorox VeraSure wipes for disinfecting surfaces as these will kill every known pathogen within 30 seconds to three minutes and benzalkonium chloride Wipes, I use Hygea brand, for skin disinfection as these will quickly kill all pathogens without destroying your skin. They work. Hope this helps somebody, good luck out there especially if visiting Asia.

Blogger Newscaper312 February 17, 2020 6:19 PM  

@23 351wsl

I propose for "Assume the official narrative is always wrong or incomplete"

"Beale's Eviscerator"

Blogger michimartini February 17, 2020 6:25 PM  

"non-Chinese victims are not dying at anywhere near the same rate as Chinese victims" - hmmm, that reminds me of the differences between homo-aids and African aids.

Blogger Ray - SoCal February 17, 2020 6:31 PM  

It may be affecting people in Wuhan more due to high levels of pollution and smoking.

So many unanswered questions...

Blogger Nate February 17, 2020 6:32 PM  

then again... if were a bioweapon and you were controlling the spread with some kind of throttle...

spitballing here... as we say... the only thing we know for sure is... the official story is a lie.

Blogger Akulkis February 17, 2020 6:32 PM  

@9
"Does anyone know if there is any truth to the rumor that a Harvard Professor help set up the Chinese Lab that may have developed this virus?"

The head of Harvard's Chemistry and Biochemistry Department, along with two Chinese assistants was arrested recently. He was arrested for failing to report LARGE payments from the Chinese. IIRC, he reported that they paid him $50,000.

It turns out that was one payment, then there were monthly payments being made by wire to some account AND some other large payments -- over $100k each and amounting to $1M ~ $10M total is hinted at in the article published by the Boston Globe.

Complainant was the Department of Defense, so you know this is going to wind up in Federal court, if not a military tribunal.

TL;DR: He screwed himself.

Blogger Azimus February 17, 2020 6:40 PM  

10. StebFebruary 17, 2020 3:51 PM
I can't imagine any motive for faking the disease, but I'm not a Chinese Communist, so maybe I wouldn't.


The motive is the covid19 is a giant economic lever that Jinping can use at will, just like Trump built himself one based on the tariffs - look at the market news and swings in the last 6 months. Not the virus and the disease itself necessarily, but the cutoff of commodity manufactured goods that goes into just about everything we use - its the conventional version of the EMP. Even something as simple as a screw - what is the current US capacity to manufacture screws? Its not zero, we do have one or two struggling manufacturers left doing specialty items. Now what do screws go into? EVERYTHING. Could we rebuild US capacity? Sure. But it would take at least 6 months, and that is only if there's still somebody who knows how to build screw tooling and the machines to run them in - and I'll bet those tooling and machine designers are going to be pretty backlogged, so maybe 12 - 18 months is more realistic.

Its all conjecture of course, but American companies like Koch Industries, ABC, Quantum Fund, etc are basically money pumps for social engineering, why not the Chinese? All this would be is an authoritarian utilizing his considerably larger money pump and market share to accomplish his considerably larger goals. He has the biggest hammer in tangible terms. The money changers can only dominate markets where there is something to buy and sell.

Blogger Akulkis February 17, 2020 6:41 PM  

@13

"Under such circumstances what motivation would China have at holding back real numbers?"

1. The real numbers are much bigger, leading to

2. "Loss of Face" as if that's more important than public safety. But they don't even value the lives of their own countrymen, let along foreigners. This goes right up with the Soviet authorities in Moscow denying the Chernobyl event even while radiation alarms were going off all over eastern and central Europe, and they had to know that there's no way a radioactive cloud could be hidden or wished out of existence.

3. "We are the government. Everything is under control." One-party systems are far more vulnerable to this than multi-party systems. In a multi-party system, the key to political survival is getting out in front of the problem, and asking for help in excess of what you may need, and as soon as you can foresee a need. Otherwise, in the next election, you go from being the mayor of New Orleans to the ex-mayor of New Orleans, and from the governor of Louisiana to the ex-governor of Louisiana.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 17, 2020 6:41 PM  

The coronavirus is several times more likely than flu to result in a serious pneumonia that requires the patient go on respirator for treatment. (5% of patients, vs. about 0.2-3% of flu).
Got oxygen? Your local welding shop does.

Blogger Weak February 17, 2020 6:42 PM  

Have there been any deaths outside of China? Maybe this "epidemic" is fake; a simulation being run by the PRC. There is no lethal coronavirus. This is an excuse for then to crackdown internally and also monitor how the west reacts to a potential bioweapon.

Blogger Akulkis February 17, 2020 6:45 PM  

@21 "Are there any non-Chinese fatalities from this at all?"

I believe one so far.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine February 17, 2020 6:53 PM  

"Communists... lying? I'm shocked and appalled."

About the only difference between our fedgov and theirs on that account is that the lies of ours have been less transparent.

"Under such circumstances what motivation would China have at holding back real numbers?"

That we know for sure? Nothing. That we can speculate on? Lots of motivations, the realistic ones involve obfuscating something else going on.

It might just be that the transmissivity and mortality rates are much higher and China fears becoming the Asiatic leper state, cut off from all the other Asian countries.

It might be that there was an intentional bioweapon deployment, perhaps by someone who isn't them, possibly even a multi-pronged one. For instance, if you have a bioweapon with a high mortality rate yet a very long latency period, and even decent transmissivity with the ability to live and spread through airborne mucous, but it just doesn't cause high mucous production and sneezing? You could deploy another bioweapon primer alongside it, something that doesn't have the mortality rate, but has a super high transmissivity and gets everyone sneezing like crazy. You could actually tailor the ultimate spread of a bioweapon using a primer like this, by using different latent periods

The depopulation speculation is the most unlikely. So far as we know, it's harder on old people than young people, so that's not going to solve their population imbalance. It might however be used as a casus belli to justify expending their excess young male population in a war.

It might also be a cover for all the dead bodies of some sort of purge. Who knows.

"Is it that Mao culled too much of the intelligentsia?"

It's that they've always had next to no deviation from expectation, and that they learn-to-test and then cheat too. Other than maybe their rote memorization ability, I'd bet their general cognitive capacities don't come even close to supporting the 105 avg IQ they like to report. Maybe 97.

Blogger Oswald February 17, 2020 7:00 PM  

Thanks 40

Blogger Akulkis February 17, 2020 7:04 PM  

@21 "Are there any non-Chinese fatalities from this at all?"

I believe one so far.

Blogger losemoneyfast February 17, 2020 7:05 PM  

The reason for the apparent disparity in death rates is that the outbreak began before Jan, and the actual number of infected is well over a million now. The virus is lab-modified, but not a finished weapon. What leaked was still a research product. Of course the CCP tried to cover it up, but you cannot contain an epidemic in secret. The virus had a huge head start before public efforts began.

Blogger budbrewer February 17, 2020 7:09 PM  

Thompson's Law (as in Hunter S.)

Blogger Logan February 17, 2020 7:17 PM  

The British show Utopia touches on this. A deep state group develops a virus that infects everyone except for a certain diaspora group (Gypsies of course). Plenty "humans are a virus on the world" programming as well.

Blogger Tanjil Bren February 17, 2020 7:21 PM  

"They prove over and over and over again that they are incapable of getting past the feelz on any matter great or small..."

Couldn't agree more.

Blogger Jay Will February 17, 2020 7:38 PM  

America is run by communists. China is a nation of communist natured people, far more prone to groupthink. Their actual government are far less bad than the squid people. If real Americans ran America things would be fine, for whatever reason they don't. Likely how utterly horrible it is too rule over the average human, better to build your life and polish your yacht on the weekends.

I noticed this in university, I'm not sure which type of "oriental" they were but they filed into the front row in an ordered fashion. Whitey likes to be John McClain and do his own thing, the bat eaters efficiently filled the aisles like a little boy putting his soldiers in line.

If your a monster, that information just gives you a better idea of how to manipulate people.

Microchip had it right, WW3 SHOULD happen, its the only way.

Blogger Shane Bradman February 17, 2020 7:43 PM  

Hundreds of millions are in lockdown and half the world is on alert. The official statistics make it less deadly than a common cold. It's clearly a lot worse than they say, but there's also no need to worry about getting it unless you're in China.

Blogger Seeingsights February 17, 2020 7:50 PM  

There is a strain of intellectual dishonesty in Chinese culture.

A few weeks ago I posted here a website which shows retractions of scientific papers by country. China led the world by a good margin in retracted scientific papers.

Another type of dishonesty they do is intellectual property theft.

A third type of intellectual dishonesty is fudging official statistics, such as economic and public health figures.

Blogger Johnny February 17, 2020 7:57 PM  

When I was a little kid I attended a rally with my parents that had maybe fifty people at it. I was around when the promoter of the rally disused crowd numbers with the local TV guy. They settled on a hundred and fifty attendees.

After that I developed a small time hobby that was made up of estimating the crowd number in the provided picture, if there was one, and comparing it with the crowd size given in the text. The disinterested number for a crowd size number is around three times, varies. If the press want to promote the event, around ten times is a good starting point, and it can get crazy big from there. The truth or an approximation applies when they are against the event.

In Washington DC the cops are paid for crowd control based on how big the crowd is. And the federal government subsidizes the district for tourists, which depends on the number of tourists. Don't know about now, but so many decades ago around ten percent of the entire US population visited the District of Columbia every year. (Yeah, sure.) Exceeds the ten percent criteria. They didn't like the Million Man March and produced fairly relaible estimates of the size of the thing.

The commies always want the countries they run to look like they are doing just great. Riddled with disease doesn't get it. As a starter, multiply the disease numbers by ten for an estimate. And if they really thought the disease was caused by somebody eating a bat, wow would there ever be swarms of people looking into that.

Blogger xevious2030 February 17, 2020 7:57 PM  

“with some kind of throttle”

Such as manual infection. Would need more detailed/precise data on movement/location/timeline of the infected. Given the title of this thread though, not likely.

Blogger Don't Call Me Len February 17, 2020 8:32 PM  

Also that these people are stupid. I would have known to vary the numbers more to avoid being obvious before I was ten. It's not hard to foresee this kind of analysis, and even a couple of other kinds of statistical analysis to weed out fabrications.

Since when have the ChiComs given a single shit what any non-Chinese says or thinks?

Blogger English Tom February 17, 2020 8:36 PM  

@Azure

Re: it's harder on older people.

Jim Stone theorises there is a looming pensions crisis in China due to the population imbalance created by the one child policy, and this virus is going to cull the older demographic cohort and thus solve that problem.

There is a YouTube video called the Anglo Saxon Mission, produced in 2010 which detailed a meeting held in the City of London which stated that "China would catch a cold", that is, a virus would be deliberately released in China. He said it would then spread worldwide.

Blogger English Tom February 17, 2020 8:47 PM  

@Steb

Re: the videos coming out of China.

Jim Stone claims the ordinary Chinese people have been cut off from internet access and any vids are being provided by the CCP.

I don't know if there is any truth to this, or why the CCP would want these videos released.

Blogger Newscaper312 February 17, 2020 8:49 PM  

Re: Chinese motivations to downplay virus...

#4 If they're eating a giant shit sandwich, keep quiet so everyone else takes a big bite too. That way everyone is more equally hurt so their relative position not damaged as much on the other side of this.

Blogger RedJack February 17, 2020 9:16 PM  

Well, considering how many people seem to be going into various military quarantine bases in Nebraska alone, I am certain the US numbers are faked.

Or they started moving people off the zombie cruise ship much earlier than reported.

Blogger grendel February 17, 2020 9:17 PM  

Remember when somebody published a short story about the Chinese releasing a disease that only killed Africans? Pepperidge Farms remembers.

Blogger Gettimothy February 17, 2020 9:19 PM  

I'm flying to Tokyo on business next week and thus am monitoring the situation. Will wear my bouffant surgeons cap covering my ears/neck, anti-microbial bubble googles, 3M 7500 respirator with 2297 P100 pancake filters, heavy long-sleeve surgeons scrubs, waterproof booties inside and outside my disinfected shoes, and double nitride industrial gloves.

Like spats and top hats, the classics never go out of style.

Blogger OvergrownHobbit February 17, 2020 9:21 PM  

@44 Thank you.

Blogger SciVo February 17, 2020 9:49 PM  

losemoneyfast wrote:The reason for the apparent disparity in death rates is that the outbreak began before Jan, and the actual number of infected is well over a million now. The virus is lab-modified, but not a finished weapon. What leaked was still a research product. Of course the CCP tried to cover it up, but you cannot contain an epidemic in secret. The virus had a huge head start before public efforts began.

That makes sense. If true, then their choices would be to under-report the number of infected by an order of magnitude, reveal that they waited too long before taking effective measures, or let people believe that it's hyper-infectious. The first option would be the safest for them.

Blogger Krymneth February 17, 2020 10:11 PM  

To work backwards from actions to motives, it is not enough to give a motive that seems to be a positive reason to do the action; the motive must make that action seem like the best course of action for the actor, when considering all the pros and cons of all the choices. If the motive is to "purge dissidents", while it may seem to be a pro of the current situation that it offers a chance to purge dissidents, it isn't what China would have considered its best action based on that desire. There are plenty of other choices that offer that pro, without the con of "deliberately release an epidemic that kills our population (which is a huge part of our base of international power)". Most notably, they have the choice of just doing it... just purge 'em, and tell the media not to tell anyone, and tell the censors to cut off all discussion of it. No need for a plague, fake or otherwise.

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest that they striking while the iron is hot and purging some dissidents. But that's making the best of a bad situation, not a reason to have set this off.

And this is a disaster for them. Sufficiently disastrous that conspiracies about someone who doesn't like China doing this on purpose are on the table. Trump was already decoupling the US and through that, the world from China, which is a terrible blow to their ambitions, but now a virus comes along and accelerates that faster than any feasible Trump tariff ever could have? And the very paranoid leadership facing the realistic prospect of losing the Mandate of Heaven? The CCP did not deliberately do this to itself.

Blogger Vaughan Williams February 17, 2020 10:34 PM  

@34 Don't know about you, but I went out last week and treated my friends to a case of Corona Cerveza for the first time in many many years. I'd like to say the resulting photo-memes were epic, but I think they were shadow-banned, based on the dead silence in response. If I believed Corona virus was more deadly than the common cold, I wouldn't have done such a thing. Leaning very heavily to "it's a cover for a mass culling" theory right now. The Diamond Princess cruise ship numbers are, and will, tell us what we need to know. Perfect petri dish.

Blogger Shane Bradman February 17, 2020 11:07 PM  

Considering the Chinese lie to your face when you know they're lying, and they know they're lying, and everyone else knows they're lying, it's a very easy conclusion to come to that the Chinese are also lying about the virus.

Blogger R Devere February 17, 2020 11:22 PM  

" Could we rebuild US capacity? Sure. But it would take at least 6 months, and that is only if there's still somebody who knows how to build screw tooling and the machines to run them in - and I'll bet those tooling and machine designers are going to be pretty backlogged, so maybe 12 - 18 months is more realistic."
===============================
Unlike the Chinese, we have a decent base of tiny to small manufacturers who can re-start major ramp-ups on industrial parts and machines. A lot of good stuff was mothballed, but not destroyed or melted down, as manufacturing was shipped off-shore by our "Chamber of Commerce compatriots" (The bastards! Second in line to hang after the Lefty politicians).

Blogger Servant February 17, 2020 11:27 PM  

Fucks sake dude how programmed are you. They shouldn't be in charge of any of those things either. It's how all this bullshit started.

Blogger Newscaper312 February 17, 2020 11:46 PM  

FWIW re things getting more exciting here:

Should come as no surprise to Vox's readership, but for the record, post 9-11 my older sister was a social worker w Public Health in south Florida. At the time the concerns about bioterror were still very strong, and the response plans depended heavily on having protected healthcare providers to help contain any attack/outbreak. They asked for volunteers to be vaccinated. My sister got a smallpox shot and IIRC one for anthrax. In her experience the volunteers were overwhelmingly white, even though in south FL the front line staff is quite diverse.

I can only imagine that affect would be more pronounced wrt care without any vaccine.

Blogger wreckage February 18, 2020 12:03 AM  

One possibility is that they covered it up, ended up with a situation they couldn't contain, and tried to model an infection rate that would catch up with reality and cover-up the cover-up. Once the model caught reality they could go to "real" numbers and throw a subordinate under the bus.

The reasoning being that this was all in the hands of subordinate, not the Party directly. This subordinate is motivated by self-preservation, not altruism, knowing that the Party is going to kill him if he can't cobble together a good enough lie.

Blogger Jack Amok February 18, 2020 12:36 AM  

About the only thing we know at this point is that non-Chinese victims are not dying at anywhere near the same rate as Chinese victims.

"Chan, you bloody fool! You can't steal genetically targeted bio-weapons from the Americans like you steal nuclear ones! You have to change the targeting! Look what you've done...."

Blogger Vaughan Williams February 18, 2020 12:45 AM  

@76 your analysis is right, if it was just cover for a purge of "dissidents" then that doesn't make sense. I still think it makes sense as a "culling" in preparation for Grand Solar Minimum and fits with the other preparations they've been making for the Grand Solar Minimum. If BD Anon is correct, then that is scary in a whole other direction. Time will tell.

Blogger Scuzzaman February 18, 2020 1:11 AM  

Who profits?
(And how?)

Chinese government:
- dissent suppression
- economic lever
- dissidents removal pretext
- hide the real conditions contributing to ill health
- emergency powers
- international cooperation (instead of universal condemnation/ loss of face)

Health authorities (WHO, CDC, etc):
- emergency powers
- fund raising

Other governments:
- emergency powers
- fund raising
- geopolitical schemes
- social engineering

Pharmaceutical companies:
- massive profits via compulsory vaccination

None of this is to suggest that there is no novel Coronavirus. There may well be.

Simply to note that this same parade of pernicious parasites have told these same lies, for these same reasons, many times, in the very recent past.

Assume whatever you like for the sake of argument, to extend various lines of possibility, but as per our host, remember that these liars only tell the truth when the truth is more convenient to them than a lie.

Blogger Fuzzums Wuzzums February 18, 2020 1:15 AM  

Crazy theory here:
What if it's a fake pandemic to get people to wear masks in order to train the facial recognition AI to work effectively with as little information as possible?

Blogger Laramie Hirsch February 18, 2020 1:23 AM  

I'm not so sure that China is going to survive this. Nor our economy.

Blogger SmokeyJoe February 18, 2020 1:26 AM  

All sounds like something I stumbled on mebbe back in...2001..2...ish, called "Anglo Saxon Mission." What jogged the memory was the statement, "China caught a cold." I dunno, have fun. Yer mileage may vary.

Blogger Vaughan Williams February 18, 2020 2:21 AM  

@87 Laramie, you've mentioned Alois Irlmaier before on your blog. Of course China survives, or they couldn't play their role in WWIII. Interestingly, a Pentecostal prophet went on TV on the Sid Roth show on New Years Eve and specifically said that the forces trying to immanentize WWIII "before its time" would not succeed. Now, I don't give credence to Pentecostals in general, or to Sid Roth and his friends in particular, but it was an interesting quote, perhaps they are aware of the prophecies of Rensburg and Irlmaier.

Blogger Kiwi February 18, 2020 3:02 AM  

I had a lecturer who was involved in the number crunch on the Wakefield study, the one that fraudulently linked the MMR vaccine to Autism. Describing how they found the fudged data was the most interesting thing that guy ever said.

I like that the Chinese data is fudged, it adds mystery.

Blogger Vaughan Williams February 18, 2020 3:03 AM  

@88 Smokey Joe, interesting article about the "Anglo Saxon Mission". Truth mixed with misinfo. Interesting nugget; says back in 2005 Iran already had functioning tactical nukes, probably from China. The BDAnon link earlier in this thread says that Iran did get nukes... from the Ukraine, when the Soviet Union fell. And that now they have none. The Anglo-Saxon Mission very much sounds like the kind of story where the wheels keep falling off of Pharaoh's chariots, while Rensburg and Irlmaier continue to be right about the course of events.

Blogger boogeyman February 18, 2020 3:47 AM  

I would like to see the name of the disease officially changed to Chiang Kai Shek's revenge.

Blogger Laramie Hirsch February 18, 2020 4:22 AM  

I'm hearing that the Chinese government is sealing people up in their apartment homes to die. And then they burn the buildings down. That is what I am hearing.

Blogger JamesB.BKK February 18, 2020 4:35 AM  

Wuhan is a very industrious and thus a highly prosperous and highly polluted city. It is top shelf producing Detroit ca 1969 times five or so. Detroit meanwhile has blue skies and opium-derived trips. Wuhan's people began protesting air and other conditions last summer with concentrations in a couple districts. Might be interesting to see if the "deaths" from this virus there overlap protest areas.

Blogger JamesB.BKK February 18, 2020 4:46 AM  

Re the 2nd revolution, it does look like women will cede to men dressing as women their ill gotten college set asides and ill gotten air conditioned employment set asides. What with the coming extirpations resulting from non-reproduction, this may be a self correcting issue.

Blogger Gregory the Tall February 18, 2020 4:59 AM  

@78 Shane Bradman wrote:Considering the Chinese lie to your face when you know they're lying, and they know they're lying, and everyone else knows they're lying, it's a very easy conclusion to come to that the Chinese are also lying about the virus.
So what can happen to liars? According to the bible this:
Acts 5:1-9 ESV / 27 But a man named Ananias, with his wife Sapphira, sold a piece of property, and with his wife's knowledge he kept back for himself some of the proceeds and brought only a part of it and laid it at the apostles' feet. But Peter said, “Ananias, why has Satan filled your heart to lie to the Holy Spirit and to keep back for yourself part of the proceeds of the land? While it remained unsold, did it not remain your own? And after it was sold, was it not at your disposal? Why is it that you have contrived this deed in your heart? You have not lied to men but to God.” When Ananias heard these words, he fell down and breathed his last.

Blogger Scuzzaman February 18, 2020 5:31 AM  

Fresh from the labs of the smartest people in the world comes research showing that the Coronavirus increases lethality as the age of the patient increases.

Some days being a human is just embarrassing.

Blogger Avalanche February 18, 2020 5:43 AM  

@23 Is there a term similar to Occam's Razor, or Hanlon's Razor that describes the only thing we know is that the official narrative is not true?

Vox Day's Law of Falsity?

Blogger Monotonous Languor February 18, 2020 6:04 AM  

There are two separate camps that have arisen in adulation of Corona-chan:

Trends based on realistic facts:
a) COVID19 is much more likely to be fatal to East Asians than other ethnicities.
b) Any race can be a vector.
c) It originated out of sloppy procedures in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
d) It was in the process of being researched, and therefore was either incomplete and/or to devise defensive measures.

Protestations based on moral fantasies:
e) COVID19 is equally infectious and fatal to all races.
f) The CCP is being perfectly frank about related statistics.
g) It was devised by Western military agencies as a bioweapon against Chinese (inconsistent with (e)).
h) It evolved from a virus in bats sold in the Wuhan wet market (inconsistent with (g)).
i) Racist, racist, racist (nyah nyah, so there!!!)

Blogger Avalanche February 18, 2020 6:21 AM  

@79 "we have a decent base of tiny to small manufacturers who can re-start major ramp-ups on industrial parts and machines."

Bingo! Last year I stopped purchasing several kinds of specific albeit not custom, screws and had one of my local machinists make them for me -- about the same cost, no shipping costs, WAY fewer duds, and I'm supporting my local small MFGs (of which I are one!).

Lots of companies, big and small, have been pulling back MFG, from China esp. -- we've even got a term for it:
"reshoring" -- because of crap quality and rising prices, plus shipping.

Blogger Bobiojimbo February 18, 2020 7:24 AM  

Why fake videos and release them to the world? To make it appear that they are indeed doing something and make them look better, or to distract and draw attention away from what is really going on.

Think of the White Helmets and why they faked videos. Apply the same principles.

Blogger Fuzzums Wuzzums February 18, 2020 8:58 AM  

wreckage wrote:One possibility is that they covered it up, ended up with a situation they couldn't contain, and tried to model an infection rate that would catch up with reality and cover-up the cover-up. Once the model caught reality they could go to "real" numbers and throw a subordinate under the bus.

The reasoning being that this was all in the hands of subordinate, not the Party directly. This subordinate is motivated by self-preservation, not altruism, knowing that the Party is going to kill him if he can't cobble together a good enough lie.


You're not making any sense whatsoever.
How could China have covered it up if they ended up with a situation they couldn't cover up? Why would someone try to cover-up a failed attempt at a cover-up by releasing manufactured info which shows why they couldn't cover it up in the first place?
And why do they need to kill the fall guy? What benefit could the CCP possibly gain from killing the fall guy? Having the fall guy removed from existence defeats the whole purpose of having a fall guy in the first place, don't you think?

Blogger OneWingedShark February 18, 2020 9:10 AM  

Jack Amok wrote:About the only thing we know at this point is that non-Chinese victims are not dying at anywhere near the same rate as Chinese victims.

"Chan, you bloody fool! You can't steal genetically targeted bio-weapons from the Americans like you steal nuclear ones! You have to change the targeting! Look what you've done...."

Chan: 「别担心,兄弟,我在电影中看过一次」

Blogger Krymneth February 18, 2020 9:50 AM  

Yes, I was just analyzing the question of whether the regime released this on purpose or are faking it just to get dissidents. Others reasons may be possible.

However, this is so devastating to the regime that I have yet to find any reason for the regime to have done it.

Now, you want some wild speculation? Try this on for size. For exactly the same reasons this is so disastrous for the regime, consider the possibility that very smart (legitimately, no sarcasm), psychopathic worker at the Wuhan biolab with some beef against the regime one day had a flash of inspiration and realized that in his hand he had one of the most powerful possible weapons to strike the regime with, and it would be oh-so-easy to release it.

That had all kinds of implications for international biowarfare research. What if it turns out that you simply can't trust anybody with the power of these viruses? What if, statistically speaking, any weapon you devise is several times more likely to end up fired at you than your enemies? It's not feasible for one disgruntled person to get their hands on a nuke, but what if you can't both research these things and prevent individuals from having access?

There's a "fun", crunchy motive possibility for you to chew on.

Blogger brbrophy February 18, 2020 10:10 AM  

I'm starting to think the virus is actually a poison being released into the Chinese public by a controlled schedule

Blogger xevious2030 February 18, 2020 10:26 AM  

“You're not making any sense whatsoever.”

Was able to follow along. “I don’t understand, please clarify/explain” is at times a good place to start.

Blogger CostelloM February 18, 2020 10:48 AM  

People in China are dying by the score. This isn't some psyop this is real pain. Several of my students have lost family and they are good people. Its bad here. Don't celebrate death. Please.

Blogger Homesteader February 18, 2020 11:38 AM  

https://www.chinausfocus.com/society-culture/why-president-carter-is-popular-in-china

"...Now more than 280,000 Chinese students are studying in the U.S. Many Chinese people still have vivid memory of how Carter recalled a related story: One night, the phone rang about 3 o’clock in the morning, and I thought “Oh my, there’s a tragedy somewhere in the United States.” I woke up and answered the phone. It was my national science advisor. He said, ‘Deng Xiaoping insisted I call you now to see if you would permit 5,000 Chinese students to come to American universities.’ And I said, ‘Tell him to send a hundred thousand.’” The intellectual community in China still remembers and appreciates his great vision on the issue."

Well, we now know who's responsible for the Chinese
intel foothold in North America...

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 18, 2020 11:59 AM  

Remo - Vile Faceless Minion #99 wrote:People in China are dying by the score.
By the score? You must be in a very small, lightly affected area. Yes, it's a tragedy, and I'm not happy to see it. God made the Chinese and He loves them, same as He loves us.

Blogger Calvin809 February 18, 2020 12:11 PM  

The new cases number probably reflects how many samples the labs can analyze in a day. If they have more than the labs can handle in a day the labs could probably put out a somewhat consistent number per day running at full capacity.

Blogger xevious2030 February 18, 2020 12:22 PM  

"People in China are dying by the score"

If the numbers are cooked, there is a psyop, it is just a matter of which one(s). Not emotion, just logic.

China, through Loans to Africans, was scheduled to displace about half a billion blacks to flood Europe and the West, effectively causing a replacement of us. The thread here at VP with the picture of "Our Viking Ancestors." Have you read the comments about Boomers and pillows, parents, grandparents? A whole people, not individuals, enacting ones demise and the demise of ones Civilization, does not endear, no matter the fault. Sad? Yes. The whole of the picture? No.

Another way. A mountain lion is about to maul and eat your cousin, because it is hungry. Do you mourn the mountain lion because you take care of some kittens? As a man.

Blogger Akulkis February 18, 2020 12:24 PM  

Understand this -- screw production can be ramped up rather easily. Most screws are NOT made on screw-cutting machines. They are produced in a 2-step stamping procedure starting with round stock (i.e. rod-shaped pieces of metal). The first 2 dies produce the threaded region, with some excess sticking out the top. The final die comes in from the end, mushrooming the top to produce the screw head.

The slow part is building the press and the dies to put in it. But once that's done, these things can produce screws in high volumes.

Before anybody goes onto it... having the Chinese decon/sanitize/sterilize their products before shipping: Yeah, right. Would you REALLY trust a Chinese business to actually take (waste in their eyes) the time, effort and expense of actually fulfilling such a specification, knowing that failure to perform it isn't immediately visible to the recipient.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 18, 2020 12:30 PM  

xevious2030 wrote:Do you mourn the mountain lion because you take care of some kittens? As a man.
I always hate to kill things. That doesn't stop me from doing it, or even slow me down.

Blogger Akulkis February 18, 2020 12:41 PM  

"I'm starting to think the virus is actually a poison being released into the Chinese public by a controlled schedule"

Can't be. We've seen it transmitted from person to person in the U.S.

Blogger OneWingedShark February 18, 2020 12:47 PM  

Akulkis wrote:Before anybody goes onto it... having the Chinese decon/sanitize/sterilize their products before shipping: Yeah, right. Would you REALLY trust a Chinese business to actually take (waste in their eyes) the time, effort and expense of actually fulfilling such a specification, knowing that failure to perform it isn't immediately visible to the recipient.
What? You don't trust having Yang stand above the shipment ptttt-ing like an 8 year-old boy with a new Hot Wheels car is enough?

Blogger Akulkis February 18, 2020 1:01 PM  

"Well, we now know who's responsible for the Chinese
intel foothold in North America..."

I'm fully convinced that Carter was the first deep-state stooge specifically groomed to be President, for the simple reason that EVERY SINGLE ACTION of his as President with even tthe slightest consequence to natural born citizens of the U.S. has been detrimental to us.
Not most.
ALL.

I'm sure that all of his navy career was part of that.
Nuke Sub Captain implies high degree of trustworthiness, patriotism, and extensive background checks. Yet we see now that almost all of the military men who have betrayed the nation by passing on classified info were Navy or Navy-affiliated.

I used to think that Carter was naive about the world, because he spent so much time under the sea and therefore all but cut off from the rest of humanity. But I've never met a submariner as idiotic as he is. Submariners do tend to lean very socialist -- even more than the rest of the fleet. I believe sea duty makes one more socialist (the overwhelming determination of one's fate on a navy ship is whether the hull you're on makes it back to port, making Marx'x "to each ... from each... " credo a logical way to live and run things on a ship.) and that is true even more for submarine crewmen than for surface ship crewmen.

Blogger Storm Rhode February 18, 2020 3:39 PM  

I've been watching American Expat on youtube. He's an American in rural China with his family living with inlaws. He talks about how things are locked down and there is lots of food where he is in the countryside but probably not much in the cities. One of the problems of a cut in the supply chain is people from the city running out of food going to the countryside and looting. I wonder if locking down the cities would curb that situation. I'm sure the promethians are monitoring the situation in China closely and learning all they can from it.

Blogger KPP February 18, 2020 4:10 PM  

The best analysis I've found with data and good news aggregation as well as a solid breakdown of the !MATH! involved is on the Peak Prosperity YouTube channel.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w

I'm getting weary of the "seasonal flu is more deadly" positioning. When's the last time you saw any government institute mass quarantines for a seasonal flu? This thing is making the powers that be very afraid - so afraid that they're trying to understate things to keep people from panicking.

Blogger xevious2030 February 18, 2020 5:30 PM  

"that Carter was the first deep-state stooge specifically groomed to be President"

It fits. Explains a lot.

Blogger Scuzzaman February 18, 2020 5:44 PM  

We've seen it transmitted from person to person in the US.

You certainly have not.

You were told this by people you know to be liars.

How do you fake the DNA?

You don’t fake the DNA - you issue a press report!

Blogger Scuzzaman February 18, 2020 5:55 PM  

KPP

Zika virus. A fake pandemic completely invented to cover up systemic corruption and associated pollution because honesty would immediately end the ruling coalition.

I’m not saying this is “the” truth of Wu Flu. I’m saying there’s still a lot of open possibilities and most (if not all) of the information we have comes to us from people we know to be liars and to have multiple motives for concealing the truth.

To be dogmatic at this juncture is to place a large bet on a loaded dice. Playing Russian roulette with your credibility and 5 rounds in the cylinder.

Blogger KPP February 18, 2020 6:43 PM  

I’m not saying this is “the” truth of Wu Flu. I’m saying there’s still a lot of open possibilities and most (if not all) of the information we have comes to us from people we know to be liars and to have multiple motives for concealing the truth.

I agree with your comment about being dogmatic, but part of what we can know is true can be gleaned in spite of the lies, misdirection, and manipulated statistics and reporting. And the fact that they lied about a fake pandemic in the past doesn't mean that they couldn't have a real one on their hands.

We know that a lot of people are sick. We know that the Chinese are worried about it - they're quarantining entire cities (the YouTube videos of the empty streets of Wuhan are not fake), they're expending huge effort in building 1,000 bed hospitals in 10 days (again, time lapse video available online), they're taking over arenas and other facilities to house the sick, and even the doctored figures they're releasing are concerning. Could this all be one huge, elaborate cover-up for something else? Sure, but I'll stick with Occam's Razor for the big picture while still remaining skeptical of the details.

Yes, we're being lied to, and we can't always be sure about all the details, but my observation is that they are underselling the danger based on those things that we can pick out of the official story that don't add up. At this point all of the questions about whether this is an engineered virus or undercooked bat soup is irrelevant to me. I'm not inclined to panic, but I am inclined to being prepared for potential hazards. There's no way to tell if this will all fizzle out next week or if Wave 2 will kick the world's ass, but I've taken the time to gear up just in case. Pandemics happen. It's wise to be aware and prepared and I've got people I need to take care of should things go south.

Blogger Scuzzaman February 19, 2020 12:38 AM  

KPP

Appropriate cautionary measures are never wasted. As you say, pandemics do happen.

Blogger Christopher Jordan February 19, 2020 1:34 AM  

Does that mean the China government is using this "epidemic" as a cover to test a bioweapon?

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 19, 2020 8:42 AM  

Scuzzaman wrote:We've seen it transmitted from person to person in the US.

You certainly have not.

You were told this by people you know to be liars.

Dude, we know they're lying, but we don't know that the opposite is true.

``They say there's an epidemic'' does not mean ``All is well, nobody's sick.''

We know shit's getting deep over there, and starting to bubble up here. We know they're* lying about it, but that doesn't mean we know the truth, it only means we know the official story is somehow misleading.

*``They'' includes CDC, WHO, CCP, news media ... everyone tasked with covering up, saving face, keeping us in danger in the dark.

Blogger Jehu February 19, 2020 1:51 PM  

I see a story about China shipping 40 industrial incinerators to Wuhan. What's the throughput on such things? I.e. what would the death toll actually be if we assumed that the 40 extra industrial incinerators was necessary?

Blogger Scuzzaman February 19, 2020 6:46 PM  

@Ominous Cowherd:

Agreed.

The statement I quoted remains false. We have not seen what was claimed.

All "we" have seen is a press report to that effect.

Hardly compelling evidence.

Blogger Akulkis February 19, 2020 7:45 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 19, 2020 8:49 PM  

The story I saw said 5,000 pounds per incinerator per day. Figure the average corona victim weights 100 pounds post mortem, that's 50*40=2,000 corpses per day. Probably more corpses than that to dispose of though, since the local facilities are already running three shifts.

So, close to 2,000 deaths per day is a conservative estimate. There were 11 million in the city, so that's about .2% of the usual population per day. We heard that 5 million left town ahead of the quarantine, so maybe .4% of the current population dropping dead each day?

Presumably they haven't started looking for corpses in the welded-shut apartments, so maybe double that?

If we accept the 2% death rate, this would mean half the 6 million are infected. I could believe that, I suppose. Alternatively, fewer are infected and the death rate is higher.

No good news yet.

Blogger Akulkis February 19, 2020 9:00 PM  

@Jehu

Most of the energy required for incinerating bodies is not so much burning the tissues, but driving water out of the tissues by heating water to the boiling point and then the additional (and substantial) converting the water from vapor to steam.

Heating 1 gram of water by 1 degree centrigrade = 1 calorie
So, to heat ice water to boiling is 1 calories per gram of water being heated.

At atmospheric pressure, the heat of vaporization to convert water to vapor is 539 calories per gram which equals 2675 kJoules.
Since
1 kWatt = kJ/sec
1 kJ=1kWatt*second
then
2257 kJ = 2.257 MegaWatt*seconds.

So, if the incinerator produces 2.257 MW of heat, then it's limit is vaporizing water at a rate of 1 gram/second (assuming all of the water throughout the body has reached the boiling point of 100 degrees C). A joule ~ 4.0 calories. Each gram of water, if the body is inserted at 0 degrees C, will require an additional 100 calories = ~25 Joules = 25 watt*seconds

If the bodies come frozen, add during the solid phase, water takes 1.22 calories to raise one degree C, and increases *rather* linearly at a rate of about 0.008 calories for each additional degree below 0 C, and it takes 333 calories to convert 1 gram of 0 C ice to 0 C water.

So, take a typical person at 75 kg. The body is about 2/3 water, so that means 50 kg of water to vaporize.
So, if the bodies are delivered into the incincerator at 100C, the water could be vaporized at 50,000 g/sec with an incinerator producing 50,000 x 2.257 MW = 112.850 GW.
to vaporize the water from a body at one body per minute, divide the power requirement by 60
112.850 GW / 60 = 1.88 GW
That's still enough power to light a city.
Let's go down to 1 body per hour
112.850 GW / (60*60) = 31.35 MW
That's still substantial
Let's try one body per day:
112.850 GW / (24*60*60) = 1.31 MW

So, that's 1.31 MW per body per day *IF* and only if the bodies arrive at 100C.

Now the remaining 1/3 of the body is composed of various things that burn (fuel) and other things that don't (which end up as ash). For bodies arriving at just above the freezing point, increase the energy requirement by 20%.... but that is roughly offset by the energy content of fat, cell walls (made primarily of sugars = hydrocarbon fuel), & proteins.

So, a 1.3 MW incinerator can do about 1 body per day.
A 2.6 MW incinerator can do about 2 bodies per day, etc.

So the question is, what's the thermal output rating of those incinerators?

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 19, 2020 11:05 PM  

Akulkis, I'm sure the incinerators run on fuel oil, like every other portable incinerator in the world. There's about 138k BTUs per gallon. The article I saw about the 40 which had been sent to Wuhan said they could burn 5,000 pounds per day. That may well be 5,000 pounds of dry, flammable medical waste, not meat that's mostly water. If so, the daily throughput of corpses might be way lower, say one fifth to keep numbers easy. By the time the corona victims die with no treatment, they probably don't weigh 150 pounds, though my 100 pound average might be a little low. There are plenty of women there who don't weigh 100 pounds when they're fat, though, so it may not be way low for the corpses.

Blogger Akulkis February 20, 2020 5:06 AM  

1 BTU = 1054~1060 Watt hours (depending on definition. 0.5% variance, so it's safe to ignore it).
1 Watt Second = 1 Joule
1 Watt hour = 3600 Watt seconds = 3600 Joules

138 000 BTU * 1060 Watt hour/BTU * 3600 Joules/Watt hour = 527 G Watt seconds.

So burning one gallon per second = 527 G Watt.

That number on the right is higher than I would have thought.+

Blogger xevious2030 February 20, 2020 11:17 AM  

The fake numbers China is releasing indicate they may be positioning to be ready to announce containment. Gotta get those assembly lines rolling again. Even if their were 1 in 5 mortality, and everyone in China were infected, that leaves over a billion people to carry on. 1 in 2 still leaves a population twice that of the US.

Blogger xevious2030 February 20, 2020 11:51 AM  

OC, any idea on what rates an incinerator burns through fuel in maxed out operation?

Blogger xevious2030 February 20, 2020 12:29 PM  

"850 degree C heat created by the furnace." "Destroy up to 5 tons" a day.

Blogger Akulkis February 21, 2020 2:33 AM  

Temperature doesn't tell you heat throughput.
UP TO 5 tons / day means dry, flammable waste.

What we really need to know is how much FUEL it consumes per hour (and what type, because Hydrogen:Carbon ratio matters. Liquid Propane, CH4, with the the highest H:C ratio (4:1) has much more energy per both unit of volume and per unit mass than gasoline, kerosene, and fuel oil). That will tell you how fast the wet tissue can be desiccated so that it will burn.

Also, those incinerators will never reach 850 C when filled full of wet tissue with all that water sucking in energy to raise the water temp and then additional sink for the heat of vaporization.

Regardless, the Chinese are going to have a HUGE rat-problem, as crops in the south are being dumped on the roadside (and sometimes even the roads) because the produce can't be shipped into the cities. Think of the typical amount of produce delivered to a 1 Million resident city on a single day. Now think of it all piled up on roadsides. Now multiply by at least 100 (the population of the cities currently on lockdown), and all of those piles of produce concentrated in the south where crops are still being grown and harvested because the winters are mild.

Blogger Avalanche February 21, 2020 8:09 AM  

@122 "but part of what we can know is true can be gleaned in spite of the lies, misdirection, and manipulated statistics and reporting."

but part of what we can {calculate to be approximately} true can be gleaned in spite of the lies, misdirection, and manipulated statistics and reporting.

FIFY

Blogger xevious2030 February 21, 2020 5:48 PM  

Up to tonnage indicates optimal burning contents. Assuming loose paper as the optimal. Calculate volume of 5 tons for loose paper. Divide into 24 hour periods. Account for filling, compaction, and removal times. Can incinerate a load within 2 seconds at fastest. Again, assuming optimal materials. Picture of the container and guestimating the space of compaction hydraulics/hardware gives a general incineration space volume. 5 tons divided by number of burns. How much is needed to incinerate the volume of paper per load within 2 seconds? Considering the fuel.

Given a natural air inflow necessary to maintain a max temperature of 850C degrees, and calculating for the transfer of energy from paper to ash from the non-paper fuel air mix. There is a formula in there, but with my mental blocks, Algebra I is a challenge. Calculating ballpark maximum fuel consumption will then provide the maximum rate of energy transmission (flow of fuel). And this can be used to calculate the maximum numbers of bodies that can be incinerated per day. Does this track, or is it way off? More curious than anything if that's enough pieces. It’s a quick jot, not claiming completeness.

Blogger Akulkis February 22, 2020 3:49 AM  

Well, with material which is flammable, like paper, the is ideal is a well insulated cavity, with good internal reflection of heat (what the metal smelters would call a refractory furnace), and a decent thermal mass (so that introducing cold material doesn't drop the system temperature substantially before the material starts to burn).

Such a system doesn't need a lot of fuel once it gets warmed up -- each load of paper is highly exothermic -- it lets off more energy than what you put into it. In contrast, cremating a body is highly endothermic process -- you put far more energy into the body (driving out all that water as I explained previously), which takes a LOT of energy in the form of heat. (Note, a temperature is not heat. Heat is thermal energy FLOWING from something to something else. Temperaturee is measured in degrees. Heat is measured in units of energy:
e.g. Joules (1 J = kg*m^2/s^2), Calories (1 calorie = 4.184 J (dietician's "calories" are kcals. 1 kcal = 4184 J), BTUs (1 BTU = 1055 Joules); or Power*time expressions (such as Watt*seconds or kWatt*hours).

IF we know the size of the incinerator, and what it's made of, and it's mass, and/or how much heat losses are as it warms up (convection up the smoke stack, PLUS convection + radiation + conduction off the sides, PLUS conduction through the feet (or convection + radiation + conduction through a support structure) OR how to compute those losses,

then we can figure out what sort of power (Heat input rate = Joules/second = Watts), at least to an order of magnitude (1 power of 10) these things are operating at.

Admittedly multiplied/divided by 10 gives a range of 100:1 between highest and lowest throughput but it's better than nothing.

My suspicion is that these incinerators, which are made for solid, dry waste, not for wet bodies, are going to barely make a dent in things, and the best bet for the Chinese will be to dig huge pits, and make mass graves.

In St. Petersburg, Russia, (Leningrad during the Communist era), there is a graveyard for most of the people who died during the seige (which lasted over 900 days ... about 2 1/2 years). Originally, bodies were being buried in normal cemetaries, but as winter came, that became impractical (fuel consumption + the use of heavy machinery better used clearing ruble from from bombardment by artillery and the Luftwaffe). So, a casualty collection point for the dead (mostly from starvation or hypothermia)(*) was established, and large graves were bulldozed out when the ground became soft enough for the bulldozers to work, and they put somewhere between 470,000 and 650,000 dead (accounting varies) in 186 mass graves.

The last time I was in St. Petersburg, there were still pockmarks from artillery on the exterior walls of some of the buildings (and some obvious patches) still visible, as well as signs warning "Walk on the other side of the street. The artillery shells land on this side."


(*) Reading some of the diaries from this time is simply horrifying. One is a young girl, about 7-8 years old. As winter sets in, her diary documents the death of each member of her family, eventually noting that she is the only one left, and writes that she is feeling weaker from the extremely small rations**. A few days later, in February if I recall correctly, the writing ends. Her name is among those who died during the siege.

** By this time, indigestible sawdust (i.e. cellulose) was being mixed into flour to increase the number of loaves of bread from the bakeries, making the ration easier to divide up among the populace. This of course, made a feast for whatever varieties of stomach and intestinal bacteria are capable of eating the cellulose, giving everyone a LOT of intestinal gas. This also makes solid waste that doesn't flush as easily, as it is "fluffy" and tends to float. A thoroughly miserable time for everyone in Leningrad.

Blogger Akulkis February 22, 2020 3:56 AM  

For more info: Piskaryovskoye Memorial Cemetery

Coordinates: 59.9967 N, 30.4214 E

If you read that site, you'll notice that the names of the dead are NOT listed at the cemetery. Some were published elsewhere, including the entire family of the girl who wrote the diary I noted in the previous comment.

Blogger Akulkis February 22, 2020 5:14 AM  

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=girl+diary+seige+leningrad

http://infogalactic.com/info/Tanya_Savicheva
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lena_Mukhina
very sobering

Blogger Ominous Cowherd February 23, 2020 10:15 AM  

Figure about 1,200BTU per pound to boil, so about 1200*5(2200)=about 13.2 million BTU needed, per incinerator per day.

At about 140kBTU per gallon of diesel, that's close to 100 gallons per day. Divide that by the efficiency of the device, maybe 20%. We get 500 gallons per device per day, times the 40 devices= 2,000 gall9ns per day.

That's one smallish fuel truck a day. Very plausible, very easy logistics.

Blogger Akulkis February 23, 2020 2:20 PM  

The logistics of running the incinerators might be easy.

The logistics of disposing the bodies with these 40 incinerators, not so much, as I don't think that amount is capable of keeping up right now, let alone as things get worse.

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