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Thursday, March 26, 2020

The prospective peaks

A former Corona-chan pessimist is revising his expectations for the better:
Government coronavirus advisors say crisis will be 'over by Easter' but warn the next two weeks will see a 'continuous tsunami of cases' – as they warn a THIRD of deaths are 'healthy people'

Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Professor Ferguson said: 'London is going to be very difficult in the next two to three weeks.

'All I would say is, with the lockdown now in place, those numbers are going to start to plateau. The challenge we have is there's a lag. The people being admitted to hospital right now were infected a week, two weeks, even sometimes three weeks ago, so without doubt the next one [or] two weeks are going to be very difficult.'
I was wondering why Prof. Ferguson was changing his tune until I looked at the Italian statistics and realized what he also must have noticed. Now, I am no medical expert or epidemiologist, but if we simply apply basic math, logic and statistics, and we assume that the cases of infection will follow the statistical bell curve that many historical epidemics have exhibited, we can derive predictive estimates from the fact that Italy appears to have hit its new cases peak on March 21, with 6557 new cases and 793 new deaths. That was on Day 31 of the outbreak, so we can speculate that the Italian crisis will be largely over by April 22.

If the US situation follows a similar curve - which will probably not be the case due to the much larger geographic area - then the current urban hotspots should be hitting their peaks the week of April 5-11 and seeing the crises more or less come to an end around the first week of May.

On the theoretical downside, if the peak has not actually passed and this four-day statistical decline is just an Elliott Wave-style even countertrend, that would indicate that the Italian situation is at least an order of magnitude worse than it presently appears and the crisis will be extended. So, let's hope that the new case numbers continue to decline.

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48 Comments:

Blogger Grooveware March 26, 2020 7:01 AM  

The China Flu has infected 255,000 people world wide and killed 10,400 so far, it's in 163 countries in less than 3 months so hopefully next few weeks we see the spike and pray to God we start seeing a decline in cases.

Blogger Grooveware March 26, 2020 7:18 AM  

In Scotland there are 719 confirmed cases so far but is probably way higher the next month we should see the true figures coming out.Dr Catherine Calderwood has estimated the actual number could be 50 times higher than official figures.If you look at the graphs from March the 1st to 25 TH the confirmed cases are shooting up alarmingly.

Blogger D Zniger March 26, 2020 7:24 AM  

The Robert-Koch-Institut in Germany counts since today any person to the infected who shows the symptoms like fever etc. , regardless if the person was tested positive. Until yesterday you had to be tested to be counted to the Corona infected persons.
The number of ill people and even the dead people can be heavily manipulated and a bell curve might be also manipulated if counting methods change.

Blogger God Emperor Memes March 26, 2020 7:38 AM  

Australia is about to experience a huge number of deaths, thanks to a combination of feckless government at State levels and backpackers who simply will not be told to self-isolate.

Blogger Lazarus March 26, 2020 7:39 AM  

When this thing is over, it will be interesting to compare it to the usual flu seasons to measure the added impact.

The burden of influenza disease in the United States can vary widely and is determined by a number of factors including the characteristics of circulating viruses, the timing of the season, how well the vaccine is working to protect against illness, and how many people got vaccinated. While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year.

CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.


Interesting spread on the annual deaths. Lotta don't knows involved.

Also Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country. ---Dr Yoram Lass, Israeli physician

Blogger VD March 26, 2020 7:43 AM  

The number of ill people and even the dead people can be heavily manipulated and a bell curve might be also manipulated if counting methods change.

Since you didn't also point out that water is wet, I am obviously a Smarter Smart Boy than you! Secret King wins again!

Translation: no shit. Why on Earth do you feel the need to point out that statistics are not necessarily accurate HERE of all places.

Blogger General Grudge March 26, 2020 7:57 AM  

We need to look into the timing of this crisis and think hard if it is more than just a coincidence.
https://generalgrudge.blogspot.com/2020/03/just-when-you-thought-people-were.html

Blogger Grooveware March 26, 2020 8:05 AM  

Looks like the old ration card might be getting rolled out again, people here are hording more than they can ever use so that will be interesting

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 26, 2020 8:28 AM  

I wondered what was happening in Italy, because a few days ago I kept seeing the chart of it coming down for two days, but I'd seen nothing since then. Thank you.

Hopefully we can confine the worst of it to the cities in the US. There's still too much movement, though. We can't just park the trucks for a few weeks, or the cities will starve--or swarm out and infect the rest of us. We had one case show up in my rural county a couple weeks ago--someone who had been overseas--but nothing since, so we might have gotten lucky for now.

Blogger D Zniger March 26, 2020 8:36 AM  

It was not my intention to be a "smart boy", suppose I earned the ridicule.
I pray that this thing goes quickly away, and I am just angry that interest groups are manipulating the numbers and are getting away with it.

Blogger qualitycontrol March 26, 2020 8:48 AM  

Over the last week growth slowed down here in Germany. Things were more or less shut down two weeks ago. So I'm optimistic that things will go back to a more normal in mid April.

Blogger Newscaper312 March 26, 2020 8:53 AM  

@Damelon, re cities vs country, the alt-righters always going on about just letting the cities starve in a SHTF civil war scenario make the dumb mistake of thinking they would stay put.
Dominating the countryside w their concentration of power and location astride trade routes was how many ancient cities got their start.

Blogger Brett baker March 26, 2020 8:56 AM  

Florida needs to shoot down the Plague Flights from New York.

Blogger Gr8Again March 26, 2020 9:09 AM  

Karl Denninger over at Market-Ticker has been making this argument for a couple of days now. He believes the recent British study suggesting that the virus has been in the UK for a while and is already widespread with lots of people showing no symptoms or have mistaken it for the flu. Essentially, we are way further into this thing than expected and are approaching the peak of the curve as herd immunity sets in.

He also believes that most of the quarantines and social distancing aren't really having an impact. Italy has peaked because of herd immunity, not because of quarantines.

Blogger VD March 26, 2020 9:20 AM  

It was not my intention to be a "smart boy", suppose I earned the ridicule.

No worries. I'm just making it clear for the usual suspects that there is zero need to "be helpful" or "explain" anything to those they erroneously imagine to be less capable of understanding the obvious than they are.

Blogger justthinkin March 26, 2020 9:39 AM  

@13 It's not just flights. Hotels along I-95 are busy in South Carolina.

Blogger awildgoose March 26, 2020 9:57 AM  

General Grudge wrote:We need to look into the timing of this crisis and think hard if it is more than just a coincidence.


It's amazing to me. Shortly after impeachment completely failed, a new opportunity appeared and was immediately seized upon by the Dems and their media tools.

Blogger awildgoose March 26, 2020 10:03 AM  

Damelon Brinn wrote:the cities will starve--or swarm out and infect the rest of us.

Our social betters in NYC are already ahead of the curve on this. There are multiple stories about them fleeing NYC to their summer and winter resort homes.

The people in those resort communities are not happy about the potential virus exposure.

Blogger JohnofAustria March 26, 2020 10:08 AM  

Well its infected way more, they're just asymptomatic and we don't have widespread testing.

Blogger JohnofAustria March 26, 2020 10:09 AM  

Yes, but that's how literally every disease spreads. Exponential growth is only short term, then it levels of like a log function. Getting panicky about that is just ignorant.

Blogger Jeroth March 26, 2020 10:35 AM  

I will be awfully suspicious if this thing starts to fade away very fast once all the corporate and other parasites get their bailouts. Even the ADL has cup in hand begging for government gibs.

Blogger RJ March 26, 2020 10:36 AM  

That 'check' that Americans are supposed to be getting isn't a bailout. It's an advance on your tax refund for 2020. When they file their taxes next year, Americans are required to pay it back.

"The payments will be made between now and December 31, 2020 — in many cases, it will be paid electronically if you have provided direct deposit information to the IRS on your 2018 or 2019 tax returns — but it’s important to understand that any payment you receive acts as an advance payment of a credit you will compute AGAIN on your 2020 tax return."

CARES Act Tax Provisons

Instead of giving Americans relief, they raised their taxes.

Blogger Oswald March 26, 2020 10:52 AM  

I observed something yesterday: I was driving through an area where minorities live. The young people in this community were not observing social distancing. In fact, they seemed to be doing the exact opposite. No doubt this is to small a sample to mean much, but based on my experience that some minorities don't believe that certain laws should apply to them, like having auto insurance, I would not be surprised if this was the norm as opposed to the exception.

Blogger awildgoose March 26, 2020 11:05 AM  

Jeroth wrote:I will be awfully suspicious if this thing starts to fade away very fast once all the corporate and other parasites get their bailouts. Even the ADL has cup in hand begging for government gibs.

If the Dems somehow retake the WH this November, we'll never hear about this again.

"Virus? What virus?"

Blogger MDN March 26, 2020 11:11 AM  

Not in that linked article is that Prof. Ferguson now thinks the death count in the UK will be at most, 20K. That is down from the 500K he estimated last week assuming no interventions. Also last week he recommendeded an 18 month lockdown until a vaccine was made and now says the virus will peak in 2-3 weeks.

All of this on Day 3 of the UK lockdown. Makes you think...

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Blogger Jeroth March 26, 2020 11:48 AM  

RJ wrote:Instead of giving Americans relief, they raised their taxes.

"Congratulations America"

Blogger Akulkis March 26, 2020 12:05 PM  

"The people in those resort communities are not happy about the potential virus exposure."

Sink the Boats

IED the Rental Cars.

Blogger Jack Amok March 26, 2020 12:52 PM  

I am cautiously optimistic WA State hit the peak of our bell curve yesterday. We'll see, numbers fluctuate, but we have had a gradual lengthening of the days-to-double. Our first identified case was Jan 21st (speculation there may have been earlier deaths from it that were not recognized because they were elderly patients with other problems).

Blogger Dyspeptic March 26, 2020 1:36 PM  

Still not worried about the Wuhan Bogeyman Virus. Still very worried about the economic/political repercussions of the media induced, politically exacerbated panic. When the dust settles on this idiotic mass hysteria we will find that this Bogeyman Virus is no worse than a bad flu season. The trillions of dollars of economic damage, trillions of additional dollars in opportunistic Federal deficit spending and the normalizing of Prison Planet government sanctions will be the true cost of this nonsense.

Try to imagine how bad it will be when a real global pandemic like a modern version of the Black Plague hits.

Blogger Duke Norfolk March 26, 2020 1:53 PM  

@22 You're wrong. Try reading it again.

"In other words, as long as you file a return in ANY ONE of 2018, 2019, or 2020 and don’t have income in excess of the phase-out threshold, you’ll be getting either an advance payment or a credit."

The only way you may have to pay any of it back is if you exceed the threshold in 2020, but didn't in 2019 (or 2018 if you didn't file '19 for some reason). But there's no apparent requirement for even that.

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 26, 2020 1:57 PM  

If millions of people already had it months ago, wouldn't there have been the same 5% hitting critical levels with cytokine storms and so on?

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 26, 2020 2:46 PM  

Damelon Brinn wrote:If millions of people already had it months ago, wouldn't there have been the same 5% hitting critical levels with cytokine storms and so on?
Agree that it couldn't have been millions. Hundreds by early January is very plausible, since thousands of Chinese university students went to and from China during our universities' Christmas breaks.

Doctors won't look for anything out of the ordinary, usually won't diagnose anything but what the insurance will pay for. So if someone presents with what could be flue during flue season, the doc diagnoses flue. He has 5 minutes with the patient and 10 minutes or so to do the paperwork, and the paperwork is what he's graded on and what pays.

Blogger Jack Amok March 26, 2020 2:51 PM  

If millions of people already had it months ago, wouldn't there have been the same 5% hitting critical levels with cytokine storms and so on?

Clearly millions did not have it months ago, or at least not this particular strain. For the most part, it was introduced into the US in the second half of January as Chinese immigrants flew back to the US after visiting family in Wuhan for Chinese New Year. There are persistent rumors of a second, less deadly strain that may have been around last year. Maybe that one really did come from a bat.

Blogger Nostromo March 26, 2020 4:11 PM  

Everyone needs to shoot down all flights from liberal hellholes.

Blogger Jack Amok March 26, 2020 4:34 PM  

Doctors won't look for anything out of the ordinary, usually won't diagnose anything but what the insurance will pay for.

In Seattle, they recognized it because a couple of EMTs realized they were responding to an unusually high number of calls for respiratory problems from one single care facility. The FD Lieutenant put 2 and 2 together, called the hospital and told them there was something nasty going through the place, and the hospital's head of infection medicine immediately realized what it was.

Up until then, it had just been a few extra old folks coming in with what looked like routine pneumonia in elderly nursing home patients. The only other local case had been up north in another city and no known connection to the nursing home. If it hadn't hit a super vulnerable population right off the bat (so to speak), it would've been another week before anyone realized we had a problem.

Those poor old codgers bought us some time.

Blogger VFM #7634 March 26, 2020 5:07 PM  

On the theoretical downside, if the peak has not actually passed and this four-day statistical decline is just an Elliott Wave-style even countertrend, that would indicate that the Italian situation is at least an order of magnitude worse than it presently appears and the crisis will be extended. So, let's hope that the new case numbers continue to decline.

Ugh, Italy reported 6,153 new cases today. Maybe it's a dead-cat bounce...

Blogger Up from the pond March 26, 2020 5:37 PM  

A meme going around is "tfw people say millions of deaths next week...for seven weeks straight."

The attitude appears to be: if there is going to be a statistically significant number of deaths, it needs to materialize PDQ. A feeling of being led on is building. If nothing happens by Easter, people in America will declare BS, take off their masks, and return to social life, quarantines be damned.

Blogger RedJack March 26, 2020 6:14 PM  

Either seal it down or open it up. When pot and liquor stores are essential businesses, even the most brain dead NPC is questioning the narrative

Blogger VFM #7634 March 26, 2020 6:28 PM  

The attitude appears to be: if there is going to be a statistically significant number of deaths, it needs to materialize PDQ. A feeling of being led on is building. If nothing happens by Easter, people in America will declare BS, take off their masks, and return to social life, quarantines be damned.

The lockdowns already have many people fuming. If it turned out the lockdowns were little more than the destruction of millions of jobs over a bad flu, then millions of people are going to be really pissed.

Hopefully, since it was the Democrats spearheading them -- along with their other royally stupid moves, such as Pelosi's gambit in the House and Sislak of Nevada banning the covid-19 cure -- it should guarantee a Trumpslide.

Blogger Max March 26, 2020 9:34 PM  

Is it possible that Corona-chan is mutating into a kinder gentler form? If only people in hospitals are tested a decline in new cases could really mean more mild cases.

Blogger Max March 26, 2020 9:42 PM  

Homies in my city have masks but they wear them around their neck half the time. Apparently they think that it's only for when you are around other people.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine March 26, 2020 11:04 PM  

"If it turned out the lockdowns were little more than the destruction of millions of jobs over a bad flu"

Unless it mutates into something worse, that's pretty much what's going to be recognized.

Blogger Paul M March 27, 2020 5:03 AM  

Why hasn't anyone mentioned Africa yet? It's like it's a forgotten continent or something.

Blogger Akulkis March 27, 2020 2:08 PM  

One -- not a lot of flights in and out of Africa.

Two, a lot of people don't own cars nor have the finances to travel much.

Less travel = easier containment.

Africa's day in the crosshairs is in the future.

Blogger Jack Amok March 28, 2020 2:05 AM  

Africa's day in the crosshairs is in the future.

Africa is always in the crosshairs when it comes to some gawdawful disease. I half exected Corona-chan to get mugged, given a swirly, and shoved in a locker by the indigenous African diseases when it showed up.

Blogger srem portal March 28, 2020 6:13 PM  

Nice article.

Blogger Megamerc March 28, 2020 9:28 PM  

My own calculations put the peak around April 20-28 for the entirety of the U.S., with the end in the first week of May. The last of the severe cases will recover in June. But that assumes worst case scenario of 150 million infected in the U.S. alone. I do not actually think 150 million people in the U.S. will contract it. Perhaps four million, which shifts the peak back closer to Vox's estimate.

Blogger Akulkis March 29, 2020 9:03 PM  

If only 4 million contract it, and it isn't completely wiped out, then we have to go through this whole rigamarole again, because that will leave over 320 million still susceptible.

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