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Sunday, March 15, 2020

The Fourth Turning

Since the concept often comes when people are metaphorically beating up on Baby Boomers, it might be helpful to understand what is meant by the generational Turnings, which is a four-phase model of social change based on the interaction of the availability and demand for social order:
Fourth Turning

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. Old Artists die, Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. The generation that came of age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to 1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.

In Parsons’ terms, a Fourth Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is low, but the demand for such order is high. Examples of earlier Fourth Turnings include the Civil War in the 1860s and the American Revolution in the 1770s—both periods of momentous crisis, when the identity of the nation hung in the balance.
I have to say, the Zoomers look a lot more like a Hero generation to me than do the Millennials. But, we'll see. Of course, the only two things the Boomers will take from this is a) prophet? I like the sound of that, and, b) see, it totally WASN'T our fault!

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85 Comments:

Blogger bramley bramley bramley March 15, 2020 6:42 AM  

Millennials = (Baby Boomers + Debt) * iPhones

Not enthused with the prospects of 'generation rent'.

Anonymous Anonymous March 15, 2020 6:45 AM  

I'd agree about the Zoomers being the more likely Hero generation. I am an older Millennial and I'd rather follow the Zoomers.

Blogger urthshu March 15, 2020 6:52 AM  

>always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival

This point is why I didn't see 9/11 as the event, nor 2008s financial debacle. They could have been perceived as such but most everyone just kept on with their regular lives so the predicted societal effect didn't happen. If the present crisis gets worse I'm wondering if the effect will take hold.

Blogger ASS March 15, 2020 6:58 AM  

I'm GenX with Zoomer kids. Yeah it's definitely the Zoomers, not the Millennials , that will be the Hero generation. The author is also lumping a bunch of Zoomers in with the Millennials when he defines them as born 1982-2004. The cohort is more like 1981-1996.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/01/17/where-millennials-end-and-generation-z-begins/

Blogger JamesB.BKK March 15, 2020 7:04 AM  

Those examples look a bit like Massachusetts / New York wars of conquest too.

Blogger A trite re-white March 15, 2020 7:10 AM  

What booms around zooms around.

Blogger Brett baker March 15, 2020 7:18 AM  

The Zoomers will make the heroic actions necessary to save their countries; the millennials will take the credit. Kind of the way the Boomers take credit for things other generations did.

Blogger Silent Draco March 15, 2020 7:57 AM  

Hah. Ask Jeremiah about the 'fun' of being a prophet. More like the prophets were ignored, in favor of total losers, because it was the losers' "my thing, man". 70 is still the new 70, idiots.

Blogger Rick March 15, 2020 7:59 AM  

Interesting, I’d never heard of this. But it recalls an Adam’s quote:

“The science of government it is my duty to study, more than all other sciences; the arts of legislation and administration and negotiation ought to take the place of, indeed exclude, in a manner, all other arts. I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. Our sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history and naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain.”

Blogger James Jameson March 15, 2020 8:12 AM  

>Millennials
I guess if the crisis+solution is waylaid you revert to "prophet" again.

I hope he's right about prophets leading religious revivals. Maybe Generation Alpha will finally convert us to Christianity when they see the full-fledged fruit of 80 years of boomer self-worship.

Blogger FALPhil March 15, 2020 8:31 AM  

You play the cards you are dealt. The turnings may be an immutable response in human nature to the generational cycles. It has been noted by people smarter than me that wealthy societies which offer the constituents too much leisure time lead to societal collapse. Sounds a whole lot like a fourth turning to me.

Blogger Balkan Yankee March 15, 2020 8:35 AM  

Millennials were conditioned to have a very strong unjustified opinion of their innate goodness. In response to the supreme disapointment of inherited cicumstances (e.g. chronic war, financial crisis, diminished opportunities, etc.), I have noticed three general responses by individual Millennials: a turn toward the fantastic (socialism - life owes me), a turn toward detachment (libertarianism - the system is screwed - leave me alone), and a turn toward competition (capitalism - life is unfair - so be it).

Blogger Stilicho March 15, 2020 8:40 AM  

Millenials are a sort of betwixt ans between generation with many of the older ones (depending on how you define its parameters) behaving more like Gen X than like the millenial paradigm. Similarly, the younger ones are more properly considered Zoomers. My hypothesis is that true millenials are primarily he children of late term Boomers or earlier Boomers who delayed having children who were born into a period where Boomers were firmly in control of society and without the advantage of having Gen X parents to innoculate them from the Boomer platitudes that pass for philosophy and morality. Circa 1985 to 1995 give or take a few years.

Blogger Ska_Boss March 15, 2020 8:50 AM  

Millennial here, we're a lost cause, just write us off as a loss and continue forward.

Blogger Yarnwinder March 15, 2020 9:06 AM  

I notice a lot of tweaking of birthdates in these threads, in order to belong to the 'cool' generation of the moment.

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 15, 2020 9:24 AM  

Yeah, that description doesn't fit Millennials at all. Civic engagement? Stumping for socialism on social media doesn't count. I don't see them joining lodges or heading up church committees, things that actually improve civic life. Confidence? The irrational confidence of the child who's never been allowed to skin his knee, maybe. Improving behavior? Okay, he's gotta be trolling them now.

Blogger Akulkis March 15, 2020 9:25 AM  

Boomers: The FALSE Prophet generation.

Blogger Stilicho March 15, 2020 9:39 AM  

@yarnwinder. Could be. However, it depends on how you define a generation. If you go strictly by years of birth, then it needs to be a consistent period for each generation. If you define a generation by behavioral characteristics (within temporal limits) then you ultimately end up with more generations.

I think the latter is a better approach. boomers have been the most broadly defined generation due to media desire to increase its perceived power and influence (millenials too to a lesser extent). I think a shorter generational period gives a more accurate glimpse of generalized characteristics, but that has to be tempered by recognition that events/conditions in the world also help define generations due to the influence of those events/conditions on general behaviors. The baby boom was only possible due to WWII for example, so the becomes a definitional parameter. Its all imprecise and subjective.

Blogger Doktor Jeep March 15, 2020 10:06 AM  

It's about carrots.
Heroes grew the carrots.
Silents maintained them diligently.
Boomers ate them all and put fake ones on sticks to dangle in front of genX. Some of genX saw this and refused to play the game. It was said of them "what's wrong with kids today?" They were called slackers. The rest of genX got burned trying to get that fake carrot, or actually got the carrot and tried to eat it and was harmed by it.
GenX tried to tell millennials the carrot was fake, but they refuse to believe it and demand the carrot with no stick.
Zoomers know there is no carrot, but boomerism is using the stick trying to beat them into believing there is.

The only "job" genX has in the next chapter is not to Stockholm it up and perpetuate the evil. When zoomers question free speech, we don't boomer it up and go "muh free speech". When an entire system tried to lie and use free speech as a shield those who see the lie won't discern you from the enemy when you brainlessly protect the shield.
When they question capitalism, you don't go "muh capitalism" and brainlessly defend usury of which the userers have used capitalism as their shield. I'm looking at you, libertardian.
When the zoomers question the past, you don't go "muh six gorillionbillionzillion".

Blogger Mauldication Bear March 15, 2020 10:07 AM  

I'm a Millennial and laughed at this. It's certainly not my age cohort. Shame.

Blogger Akulkis March 15, 2020 10:09 AM  

"I notice a lot of tweaking of birthdates in these threads, in order to belong to the 'cool' generation of the moment."

That's not it at all.

The question is this:

If I take 1000 random people born in year N, do their attitudes and views align significantly more with people born in year N-5 or N+5.

I'm on the edge of the divide between Late Boomers (aka "Generation Jones") and Generation X, born in 1965.

I much more closely align with those born in 1970 than in 1960. And the differences between who I align with culturally are even more stark when we compare those born in 1975 (N=10) with 1955 (N-10).

Most of those who I graduated with lean the same way. Therefore, 1965 is GenX, even though the Birthrate demographers classify 1965 as tail end Babyboomers.

The same holds true for those born in 1964, and a few from 1963.

The Book The Fourth Turning uses a rather (but not totally) rigid 20-year generation as the model. This cycle will either have 5 generations, or the average generation span will be closer to 25 years.

Or perhaps 2001 WAS the beginning of the 4th Turning (although as OP suggested, Millenials, even though the bulk of the ground troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan, really haven't played the role of the Hero Generation while INSIDE the nation's borders.)

A couple things for sure:

The Silents definitely are the Artist generation.
The created an explosion of musical styles from the mid 1950's to about 1970.
When they got replaced by Boomers, Top 40 took a severe nosedive, although there was something of a recovery from Generation Jones ("Punk & New Wave, both with their "Do It Yourself" ethics. Hair Metal and Glamrock was mostly imitating the Boomer decadance of the 70's)

The Boomers as prophets: "Everything from the past is complete garbage. Listen to us, and only (inexperienced) us for the answer to any question involving society and civilization. We know better than the people who lived in times of virtually no technology, and who basically spent all day thinking about nothing but society and civilazation, and whose words are still used as guidelines.. but the words of those Ancient thinkers, however much they are still heeded today, in 1970, are ALL WRONG, because my generation invented sex!"

GenX as Nomads:
Latchkey kids pretty much covers it.
Opportunity evaporating before our eyes, as we watch our cities decay into warzones completes it. MadMax is most certainly a member of GenX (He remembers when society functions and he's one of the last who knows how to maintain and fix his car. The generation behind him is completely uncivilized ("the feral kid"), as the society has lost all moorings to civilized behavior by the time they are aware of the world (Millenials can't read cursive, and thing the verb "to be" involves the character "2")

Millenials:
Unlike the War for Independence or the WW2 Hero generation, Millenials didn't grown up with the deprivation like that caused by the Intolerable Acts or the Great Depression (extended to 5x normal duration by FDR and the Federal Reserve).
Seem to be a wanna-be Prophet generation (aided and abetted by Boomers), exhibiting BoomerStupidity^2 with all of their thought policing, deplatforming, twitter-mobbing-until-fired bullshit. They are definitely an anomoly in the usual pattern or progression from one generation to the other.


Zoomers -- definitely have the RIGHT attitude to be a Hero generation.

Evidence: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=royal+oak+middle+school+build+wall&ia=web

Blogger Rebel Skate March 15, 2020 10:14 AM  

The authors of that book also point out that the generational cycle can be disrupted as it happened with the Civil War as the war happened a decade or two too early for it to fit their static generational model.
The Hero class was too young to fight in the war/emerge and thus the post-war US was a mess for a long time

Blogger Steb March 15, 2020 10:15 AM  

When you say prophet the boomer reaches for his acoustic guitar

Blogger Stilicho March 15, 2020 10:38 AM  

@Akulkis re: millenials- quite apt, a generational echo of the Boomers, me generation echoed in the me too generation.

Blogger [Redacted] March 15, 2020 10:46 AM  

Boomers are vampires. GenX are the scared old villagers warning people. Millennials are the young being bled dry. Zoomers are the potential vampire slayers...

Personally, I am rooting on Corona-chan and the Boomer's drug dependency on China to be the real champion. Ave Saint Corona-chan!

Blogger Father Vinnie March 15, 2020 10:50 AM  

(Akulkis @ #21) Thanks for insisting that Gen X begins in 1965 (the year of my wretched birth). The only Boomer freebie I was able to access was dirt cheap public university (cheap by today's standards, that is). Everything else has been an uphill slog to find some level of financial stability.

I married late, and my kids are still in high school. Each day I find myself red-pilling them on all sorts of things that my parents never even thought to teach me. I don't do this to make them despair; I do it because dealing with reality as it is is far superior to building castles in the sky in the long obsolete Boomer-land.

"You can do anything if you just set your mind to it." I lol.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 15, 2020 10:58 AM  

Yarnwinder wrote:I notice a lot of tweaking of birthdates in these threads, in order to belong to the 'cool' generation of the moment.
If the description doesn't fit, it's not a good description.

Blogger Avalanche March 15, 2020 10:59 AM  

@9 "in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain."

Wrong!

Hard times make strong men.
Strong men make good times.
Good times make weak men.
Weak men make hard times.

"Men" who study painting and statuary and tapestry ARE the weak men who tear or allow to be torn down the civilization they have inherited. Secula seculorum.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 15, 2020 11:08 AM  

Akulkis wrote:Most of those who I graduated with lean the same way. Therefore, 1965 is GenX, even though the Birthrate demographers classify 1965 as tail end Babyboomers.
The Early Boomer demographer I used to work for classified 1959 onward as Baby Bust, since '58 was the peak of the boom. That meshes well with the fact that those of us born after about '60 or so had totally different experiences than the '48 to '58 generation. We graduated into recessions and the early stages of globalization. The entry level jobs we needed were already being shipped overseas, the career ladders were already being pulled up out of reach by the Boomers who had already climbed them, housing was already being bid up to unaffordable heights by Yuppie DINKs.

It wasn't the Boom that made the Boomers.

Blogger Wazdakka March 15, 2020 11:11 AM  

Genx nomads.
Well yes that sums up most of my school friends and me.
Millennials as heroes? Although they started a bit shaky they still have time to grow up.

Blogger Arthur Isaac March 15, 2020 11:32 AM  

The crisis cam to late for the Millennials. The Boomers rot extended for too long and the Millennials got overbaked because of it. Zoomers are more like a reactionary nomad generation. Considering the theory that the Civil War cycle was brutal for being shortened by the comparison I think we're about to find out what happens when we don't have a hero cohort.

Blogger Unknown March 15, 2020 11:36 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Doktor Jeep March 15, 2020 11:45 AM  

The boomer thinks all he needs is a guitar, three chords...

Blogger Silly but True March 15, 2020 11:47 AM  

Millennials could still step up, but it would require overcoming their cohort's inherent narcissism and lack of motivation.

Blogger tuberman March 15, 2020 11:56 AM  

(((Bob Dylan))), how I despised him (still do). Also, way, way too many Boomers who think they are Prophets.

Blogger jblowrod March 15, 2020 12:00 PM  

Assuming that the hero generation will restore America to some former state is a fundamental misunderstanding of 4th turning.

"Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity."

A fourth turning results in a new identity, by definition different from the prior, not a restoration of the prior.

The mechanism proposed is that a hero generation enacts the vision of a prior prophet generation.

The boomers are the prophets, so what is the vision? Diversity. Thus, the hero generation, millenials, will be diversity heroes. The millenials will enact the boomers vision. White millenials are not part of the "hero generation" anymore than Oswald Mosley was part of the previous "hero generation."

Heroes define themselves in a struggle against a great enemy; the enemy represents the opposite of the heroes. White patriarchy, whiteness, etc is that enemy. Look at La Raza, Julian Castro types. These are the fourth turning heroes.

Strauss and Howe are globalists predicting the final defeat of heritage America. It does not need to be so. The South lost the civil war, the nationalists lost WW2.

Can heritage America learn from mistakes of the past and prevail this time? White men got behind "build the wall," a sign of fighting spirit, but can they muster the will to oppose the "big beautiful door" being promoted by Kirk and his ilk, to endure the "racist!" point and shriek, and hold their ground?

Alternatively, the USA simply ceases to exist as a nominally politically un unified body, allowing room for founding generations of new states. A rump state America could allow for a white hero type generation, perhaps zoomers.

Blogger Job La Salle March 15, 2020 12:06 PM  

I think of the Millennials as a second Nomad generation. We were the first people that were heavily medicated as children and threatened with arrest for self-defense. When we came of age our parents implored us to take out loans to earn useless degrees. Our elders were busy telling us we were colonizers who deserved to be supplanted by harder working immigrants. I recall a conversation with a baby boomer religious life coordinator who openly denied the law of the excluded middle and viewed it as a perception resulting from a western upbringing. Even now the Baby Boomers who lead the churches and political clubs will not shut up about the wonders of diversity and immigration.

Half of the generation believed the propaganda and were ruined. Much of the rest were afflicted with deep psychological wounds that probably will never heal entirely. It took many of us until young adulthood to shake a lot of the subconscious programming from our childhood and we are now only beginning to learn the skills our parents should have taught us.

On a positive note, having their best years stolen from them has instilled some Millennials with an unquenchable hatred for the enemies of the West. That cohort will provide much of the leadership to the Zoomers.

Blogger Job La Salle March 15, 2020 12:07 PM  

I think of the Millennials as a second Nomad generation. We were the first people that were heavily medicated as children and threatened with arrest for self-defense. When we came of age our parents implored us to take out loans to earn useless degrees. Our elders were busy telling us we were colonizers who deserved to be supplanted by harder working immigrants. I recall a conversation with a baby boomer religious life coordinator who openly denied the law of the excluded middle and viewed it as a perception resulting from a western upbringing. Even now the Baby Boomers who lead the churches and political clubs will not shut up about the wonders of diversity and immigration.

Half of the generation believed the propaganda and were ruined. Much of the rest were afflicted with deep psychological wounds that probably will never heal entirely. It took many of us until young adulthood to shake a lot of the subconscious programming from our childhood and we are now only beginning to learn the skills our parents should have taught us.

On a positive note, having their best years stolen from them has instilled some Millennials with an unquenchable hatred for the enemies of the West. That cohort will provide much of the leadership to the Zoomers.

Blogger kurt9 March 15, 2020 12:11 PM  

This makes it sound like the 1980's was the forth turning, not today. We went through the pessimism and malaise of the late 60's and 70's. Reagan, along with the increased entrepreneurship in the early 80's restored confidence in American and the future in general. The 80's and 90's saw a wave of entrepreneurship and technological innovation that overcame the malaise of the 70's.

However, entrepreneurship has declined significantly since around 2000 and the Millennials are far less entrepreneurial than either the late boomers or GenXer's that preceed them. The Millennials cannot be the forth turning generation. Is it the GenZ's? Its too early to tell. the oldest GenZ's are about 20.

The definitive test is if they prove to be an entrepreneurial generation. If not, then of course they are not forth turning.

Perhaps Trump is the reincarnation of Reagan and that he provides the motivation for optimism.

Blogger kurt9 March 15, 2020 12:14 PM  

Aaron Clary does not think the Zoomers are forth turning:

http://captaincapitalism.blogspot.com/2020/02/gen-z-will-not-save-america.html

Blogger jarheadljh March 15, 2020 12:16 PM  

tuberman wrote:(((Bob Dylan))), how I despised him (still do). Also, way, way too many Boomers who think they are Prophets.

It's been about ten years since I read it, but I don't don't remember Strauss&Howe specifying that you have to be a good prophet to get the label.

And definitely VD, the Millenials are just as useless as the Boomers they mirror off of. Thank God for the Zoomers.

Blogger Out of Nod March 15, 2020 12:33 PM  

I wouldn't count the Millenials out yet. Attempts at inoculation against the hardships of the world while producing no end of new hardships has become a red pill unto itself for them. The question is where will they turn as their heroes are slain before their eyes and they are left with nothing like the trend currently indicates - socialism, tradition, or something else entirely? The Nomads will be needed show the way.

Blogger tantonj March 15, 2020 12:48 PM  

Not to stick up for my shitty generation (millennials). But gen z fits the new artist archetype well. Just look at their memes.

Blogger kurt9 March 15, 2020 1:02 PM  

The Millennials clearly lack the enterprising spirit that young people had in the 1980's and 1990's. If the Zoomers show the same enterprising spirit as 80's and 90's young did, I will believe this forth turning jazz is real. If not, it is a bunch of hokum.

Blogger Unknown March 15, 2020 1:08 PM  

Millennials, let play the hand we were dealt and make this world better for our kids. Remember seek the good, the beautiful and the True.

Blogger Gastguma March 15, 2020 1:33 PM  

Millennials have suffered from delayed development. They have a tendency to reach the major milestones and epiphanies of life later than normal. They fact that they have yet attained hero status does not necessarily mean they won't.

Blogger Boaty Bear March 15, 2020 1:46 PM  

I'm alright Jack GGGeneration?

Blogger Ariadne Umbrella March 15, 2020 1:47 PM  

Strauss and Howe also fingered GenX as a conservative, rebuilding generation that would wipe out the forays of the liberal generation. I think abortion, child psych drugs and divorce were put in place and pushed hard to shrink GenX's powers.

Millenials were flattered, GenZ was flattered as progressive, enlightened leaders into the future, right up to the minute that someone took an attitude census, and broke it down racially. White Zoomer males were more right wing than GenX. More orthodox religious, less tolerant of gays, less likely to watch mainstream television. Within months- less than six months- the zone was flooded with shows aimed at young people basically glorifying suicide. The casts were basically all white. The production values looked 80s-ish- clean, prosperous- I want to say minimal gay messaging. IT was totally a poison pill aimed at religious, white, conservative, smart white kids.

And it worked. Suicide rates spiked. Then there were concerned articles. The series disappeared. And then another one popped up, slightly older crew, all famous on small shows with cooler fans. And then that disappeared. And then the GenX death therapy shows, with GenX stars talking about their dead friends.

Blogger Solon March 15, 2020 1:48 PM  

Older millennial here.
My generation is most likely hopeless. Too many of us drank the koolaid.

I place my faith in the zoomers. If Nick Sandmann is any indication, they will be the ones to lead us out of this mess.

Not that I wash my hands of the matter, quite the opposite: they need some help and guidance from those of us that arent completely ZOGed and POZed.

Blogger Boaty Bear March 15, 2020 1:52 PM  

...that's all he did need!

Blogger Irredeemable Deplorable March 15, 2020 1:53 PM  

The book was published Dec 1997. I remember discussion in the late '90s. When I read about it, I immediately thought the authors had lifted it almost wholesale from the economic theory "The Kondratieff Wave", named for the Russian economist executed by Stalin for his heretical conclusion that central planning communism would always fail.

The classic Kondratieff (or Kondratiev) Wave postulates that the economy moves in approx 80 year cycles, a classic sine wave, divided up into 4 "seasons". The peak at the top of the curve was 2001, we are deep into the "Winter" (contraction/deflationary outcome) phase, which should end in the early to mid 2020 decade. Some argue (me) that constant Central Bank intervention has only delayed the inevitable contraction by a few years, and that the pain of the Winter season (think Great Depression of the 1930s) cannot be avoided.

The optimistic note is that this period of deflation/contraction/decline will end in a few years, after we get the actual reversion to the mean, which always has overshoot to the downside, until the final bottom is reached, and then the new recovery/expansion begins. It will be a period of renewed growth, though it won't feel like it for the first few years, it just won't be getting any worse

The pessimistic note is that, in the expanded Wave hypothesis, called 'The Long Wave' by some (Elliot Wave and all other Waves/business cycles using various time frames are pretty much derivatives of the original K Wave IMHO), we began a long uptrend starting in 1776 (or even longer term Waves say ~800 AD) and that we are now entering the long corrective phase of 80 years, or 240 years of the longer time frame waves. The Winter Season usually involves crisis, upheaval and war, economic contraction and deflation, hyper-inflation may occur temporatily, but it is not sustainable and always collapses into deflation. Excesses are purged out of the system - like "progressivism", think decline and fall of the Roman Empire - decadence led to extinction, economically and actually for many citizens.

So things should be all good in 5-6 years, or 80 years, or 240 years....your great-great-great-grand-children will be fine.

Blogger tuberman March 15, 2020 1:55 PM  

44. kurt9

You do not understand. A decent percent of that 'enterprising spirit' was fake Ticket Takers. Not all, of course, but usually the biggest winners. Bill Gates is the greatest example of this. Yes, he was very sharp, but he, and all the major players that made billions later than him, were even more propped up by Ticket Taking.

Blogger Jack Amok March 15, 2020 2:04 PM  

The authors of that book also point out that the generational cycle can be disrupted as it happened with the Civil War

Yes, the Prophet Generation of that cycle (Lincoln, Douglas, Jeff Davis, William Lloyd Garrison, even John Brown) screwed up and triggered the crisis ten years too soon, turning what should've been the Hero generation into an Artist one.

Prophet generations are always the ones that cause trouble. They drive the cycle, for good or bad, with their myopic crusades and selfish reluctance to ever admit mistakes. Four generations - even a previous Prophet generation - had managed to work out various compromises between North and South to cooperate with one another. But as soon as the new Prophet generation got their hands on the lever, we were shooting at each other because both sides were too solipsistic to think there might be any acceptable position besides theirs.

What's happening this cycle? I think the Boomers are too afraid this time. It's the opposite of how their Civil War antecedents screwed up. Instead of allowing the crisis to begin when it should have 12 years ago, they've been papering it over, trying to draw out the last of the good times until they're gone and it's someone else's problem. They only way to do that is to suck all the opportunity away from the Millennials, never giving that generation the chance to step up.

Blogger Hammerli 280 March 15, 2020 2:05 PM  

"The generation that came of age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to 1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004)..."

Nope. He's using a 22-year generation interval. Meaning his sample rate is about half what it needs to be to understand what is going on. A POLITICAL demographic decade group is about ten years, and the break-point seems to be around mid-decade.

Just as a political decade is about ten years...but it doesn't start with a year ending in "0".

As this rate, I'm going to have to write a Post-World War II American History book myself.

@29: "The Early Boomer demographer I used to work for classified 1959 onward as Baby Bust, since '58 was the peak of the boom. That meshes well with the fact that those of us born after about '60 or so had totally different experiences than the '48 to '58 generation."

Yes. This. Totally. Although I'd put the break point a few years earlier, it's a detail. The key point is that someone born in 1960 had a childhood and early adulthood that was radically different from someone born in 1950...or 1970.

Blogger Theproductofafineeduction March 15, 2020 2:47 PM  

Yep. The best you can hope from us millennials is that the non pozzed among us have plenty of kids and so a decent job raising em.

Blogger Akulkis March 15, 2020 3:03 PM  

@36
"The mechanism proposed is that a hero generation enacts the vision of a prior prophet generation.

The boomers are the prophets, so what is the vision? Diversity. Thus, the hero generation, millenials, will be diversity heroes."


Your map reading skills are deficient.
You're holding the map completely skewed compared to the landscape. You've got the SW corner oriented towards true north. On top of that, those circular blue lines aren't race tracks, and the other blue lines aren't roads.

Millenials tried (and are on the crux of failing) to make the Boomer's multicultural, anti-white dystopia a reality. But they have failed -- the backlash, of which the main proponents are GenX, is already forming.

The though policing / twitter-mobbing-until-fired/deplatforming / founders-run-out-of-their-own-organizations has come to an almost screeching halt in recent months, except among themselves.

Zoomers view the Boomers as perpetual children, and are looking to GenX as prophets.
Remember, it wasn't GenX who christened Covid-19 "Boomer Remover."

Blogger Akulkis March 15, 2020 3:07 PM  

@36
"Alternatively, the USA simply ceases to exist as a nominally politically un unified body, allowing room for founding generations of new states. A rump state America could allow for a white hero type generation, perhaps zoomers."

How long have you been a defeatist?

Look, most of the non-whites aren't here for the opportunity, they're here for the Boomer-mandated handouts (I say Boomer-mandated, because the Boomers LITERALLY MARCHED IN THE STREETS throughout the 1970s to transform relief-for-widows into subsidies-for-skanks-sluts-and-whores.)

Blogger Kat March 15, 2020 3:47 PM  

Avalanche wrote:@9 "in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain."

Wrong!

Hard times make strong men.

Strong men make good times.

Good times make weak men.

Weak men make hard times.

"Men" who study painting and statuary and tapestry ARE the weak men who tear or allow to be torn down the civilization they have inherited. Secula seculorum.


I know you can't possibly be saying that artisans are discivic weaklings.

Blogger Shadow Banisher March 15, 2020 4:32 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 15, 2020 4:36 PM  

Millennials are far less entrepreneurial than either the late boomers or GenXer's that preceed them.

That's for sure. They're the ones who come into tech forums saying things like, "I got a degree in X and it sucks; how do I get a job doing Y?" Somehow it never occurs to them to type "How do I get a job doing Y" into this Internet thingy they grew up with. And they're completely focused on organized education, credentials, and a corporate job. If you try to explain to them that you can teach yourself many things, they just shrug you off.

I know the Boomers made them that way, but it makes it hard to help them, because even the ones who ask for it will rule out most options from the start.

Blogger Yossarian March 15, 2020 5:19 PM  

Avalanche wrote:"Men" who study painting and statuary and tapestry ARE the weak men who tear or allow to be torn down the civilization they have inherited. Secula seculorum.

I disagree. I see the whole thing in terms of purpose: men with purpose create good times -> good times create men without purpose -> men without purpose create bad times -> and so on

Churches, statues, paintings, and songs were still being made during war. Creating for creation's sake is masturbatory. Creating for the sake of elevating the populi cannot have a discivic effect. Imagine an US where the whole Hollywood apparatus is geared towards promoting the good, the beautiful, and the true. During WW2 along with needed provisions soldiers also carried Cpt. America comics in their backpacks. Propaganda can boost morale and propaganda is an artist's job.

Blogger Uncle Maffoo March 15, 2020 5:29 PM  

This must explain Africa's rich history of painting and sculpture.

Blogger Pathfinderlight March 15, 2020 6:19 PM  

Without a Christian culture to parasitize, all three of those systems are doomed to failure.

Blogger Stilicho March 15, 2020 6:30 PM  

@irredeemable deplorable- I concur. I've long had the same thought about forth turning being an attempt to apply K wave to sociology. Doesn't mean its invalid, but neither does it mean we should expect it to apply as neatly as the authors posit. As for the longer wave theory, too little data to test and it goes from prediction to prognostication rather quickly.

@jack amok- I agree that Boomers have been acting in fear and just want to keep eating the seed corn they developed such as taste for.

@Hammerli- exactly. You need more precisely defined groups to better define characteristics. The bigger the group, the more general the characteristics and less useful.

Finally, all of this is taking place in the course of Sir John Glubb's life cycle of empires.

Blogger Unknown March 15, 2020 6:37 PM  

Haven't seen much respect for artisans in U.S.A., not in my lifetime anyway. 50 years.

What I saw was people who work with their hands to create the useful, true, and beautiful being called two alternating epithets: "loser greasemonkeys" and "faggots."

Maybe other people saw something different. I hope so.

Blogger JamesB.BKK March 15, 2020 6:55 PM  

Most of the heroes were killed in the so-called Civil War. Those that sent the winning side shoddily made and implemented constitutional amendments that with the help of judges turned the constitution on its head.

Blogger JamesB.BKK March 15, 2020 7:03 PM  

"You can do anything if you just set your mind to it." I lol.

"Follow your passion" = shizeit.

Blogger tuberman March 15, 2020 7:17 PM  

28. Avalanche

> "Men" who study painting and statuary and tapestry ARE the weak men who tear or allow to be torn down the civilization they have inherited. Secula seculorum.

You should consider that Yossarian is correct.

"Culture comes before politics," or Alexander's teacher was Aristotle. The Romans knew that poets are sorcerers, but they had State Sanctioned Poets. No other poet could practice within the city's walls.

Feminism right now is pushing males out of culture, and replacing them with feminist women and anti-West minorities. OTOH, would any of the anti-Christian, anti-West artists be able to practice their inversion crafts, if laws similar to Rome's exist. NO!

Blogger JamesB.BKK March 15, 2020 7:34 PM  

If the Zoomers show the same enterprising spirit as 80's and 90's young did

Just need to obtain the permits and licenses - that are reviewed and approved by the incumbents and some busybodies - or dismantle all the zoning, permitting, and occupational licensing requirements imposed by boomers and those coming before them.

Blogger JamesB.BKK March 15, 2020 7:46 PM  

"(I say Boomer-mandated, because the Boomers LITERALLY MARCHED IN THE STREETS throughout the 1970s to transform relief-for-widows into subsidies-for-skanks-sluts-and-whores.)"

I think I know of at least one person born in the twenties that was working vigorously to promote and recruit for such.

Blogger JamesB.BKK March 15, 2020 7:54 PM  

"I've long had the same thought about forth turning being an attempt to apply K wave to sociology."

Sustained periods of serial long winters and credit creation / collapse don't get much attention.

Blogger nswhorse March 15, 2020 7:56 PM  

I love how easily boomers own themselves. In response to the revelation that in a time of crisis with insufficient medical resources, they may be surplus to requirements, they like to emphasise how skilled and hard working and thus indispensible they are. Those stupid laybout young 'uns won't work and wouldn't know what to do even if they did. They never seem to notice that even if their claim is 100% true, all it does is reveal that they broke the intergenerational contract by failing to teach their children and grandchildren everything they know. Such a sin makes them far worse than indispensible, it makes them evil and deserving of swift punishment by pillow.

Blogger CynicalMan March 15, 2020 8:03 PM  

Hard times require hard men who create good times that result in soft men who create hard times. The question is did you grow up in good times or hard times and where are we headed now? All this generational animosity is just a mask for an unwillingness to accept that you are a product of the times and that you may not like what you think the future holds for you.

Blogger kurt9 March 15, 2020 8:25 PM  

JamesB.BKK wrote:If the Zoomers show the same enterprising spirit as 80's and 90's young did

Just need to obtain the permits and licenses - that are reviewed and approved by the incumbents and some busybodies - or dismantle all the zoning, permitting, and occupational licensing requirements imposed by boomers and those coming before them.


I hear you. This is a big problem. However, you guys never talk about this kind of stuff.

Blogger Akulkis March 15, 2020 8:47 PM  

"I think I know of at least one person born in the twenties that was working vigorously to promote and recruit for such."

Who cares? IF the Boomers didn't show up to do his bidding, then that 50-year old riot-organizer wouldn't have been able to put a traffic-stopping crowd on the street.

Blogger Akulkis March 15, 2020 8:48 PM  

"Such a sin makes them far worse than indispensible, it makes them evil and deserving of swift punishment by pillow."

Many deserve execution by hammer -- starting at the toes.

Blogger Akulkis March 15, 2020 8:51 PM  

"All this generational animosity is just a mask for an unwillingness to accept that you are a product of the times and that you may not like what you think the future holds for you."

What other generations have sold out their own country, including their children and grandchildren, all for the purpose of obtaining even more luxury when what they already had was beyond what they could enjoy?

Blogger Toby Temple March 15, 2020 10:42 PM  

"All this generational animosity is just a mask for an unwillingness to accept that you are a product of the times and that you may not like what you think the future holds for you."

Incorrect. It would have been fine if these Boomers have accepted already that, as a product of their times, they are a very bad product. But they refuse and even fight against such truth.

The Xers have accepted that they are not such a good product as well, acknowledge it and consciously strive to recreate themselves so that they do not end up like the Boomers.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 15, 2020 11:27 PM  

Father Vinnie wrote:"You can do anything if you just set your mind to it." I lol.
You can't roller-skate in a buffalo herd, but you can be happy if you've a mind to.

Blogger Jack Amok March 15, 2020 11:49 PM  

"Men" who study painting and statuary and tapestry ARE the weak men who tear or allow to be torn down the civilization they have inherited.

Bob Ross was an Air Force Master Sergeant before he started doing The Joy Of Painting.

Blogger JamesB.BKK March 16, 2020 1:11 AM  

Does anybody have a view whether bad boomers take an uncanny satisfaction in having high mileage (say 180k+) on a non-classic daily use vehicle with clean oil and good brakes and tires?

Blogger MEGAMUS Maximus March 16, 2020 4:41 AM  

You're willingness to follow actually demonstrates the main post's thesis.

I think they are wrong calling all of the millenial generation the next hero generation, but a subsection of them and Gen Z, I can buy. Potentially that subsection described in Julian Langness'currently banned and hard to obtain book "Identity Rising".

Blogger Ariadne Umbrella March 16, 2020 12:43 PM  

Hard men make magnificent art: have you seen the Parthenon?

Public policy eunuchs pay for degenerate art. Not hard men, barely men. That's getting rolled back by the alt-right. There's this huge tutoring going on, on Twitter, of all places. Wrath of Gnon, Architectural Revival, Bronze Age Pervert's podcast- all tutoring on art, architecture, classical music. Boomers and Millenials are screeching that these tutorials are racists. Perfectly shy, studious men are having to threaten to sue journalists for character assassination for educating people- for free!-

The blobby stuff is subsidized by deformed, anti- Western civ types.

Craftsmen are being revived. I have a son who had a six figure scholarship to an excellent private, liberal arts college. He eschewed it for community college and a job at a car repair place. He wanted the mental independence. He is taking art history at the community college. He's getting a formal, classic education, not a full-spin Marxist art ed, like his parents got at the big university. He has friends. They are all doing this, in their capacities. It's online, it's videos, it's video games.

Games- Civilization, Europa Universalis, Minecraft, the city simulation games- are acting as a strong tutorial for young men. They are learning maps, history, buildings. At least one friends' mom was happy her son started gaming EU so that he could learn history and pass a class with an A. The big shooter games all seem to have political theory interludes.

I'm just not sure why the Boomers think the heroes are going to rescue Social Security payments, rather than cleanse the land and make it safe for their own, young progeny.

And, really, Boomers, can you hear yourself? Why are we having to choose between you and an illegal immigrant for a scarce resource- in this case, a hospital bed that you want? You know, everyone after you wanted a scarce resource- a job, an affordable house, a good education, a stable family. You took those goods and made them scarce- and you gave them away to foreigners by letting them in. You begin to see why we are upset? Just the tiniest bit upset?

Let's not even get back to my first objection- you made siblings and friends a scarce resource. 55 million potential siblings, cousins, friends, spouses. One out of three, in one decade. Black Plague numbers. You think maybe, possibly, one of those three might be a scientist who could solve this disease, or the nurse who could ventilate you by hand, if necessary?

Blogger OneWingedShark March 16, 2020 12:59 PM  

Brett baker wrote:The Zoomers will make the heroic actions necessary to save their countries; the millennials will take the credit. Kind of the way the Boomers take credit for things other generations did.
I certainly hope not; but I do pray for us to put into positions of authority those who will do Justly, love mercy, and walk humbly with God… if we-as-society can do that, things will be much better.

Akulkis wrote:Or perhaps 2001 WAS the beginning of the 4th Turning (although as OP suggested, Millenials, even though the bulk of the ground troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan, really haven't played the role of the Hero Generation while INSIDE the nation's borders.)
…we were never allowed to be Heroes in our own country.
We were sent to fight for our country (defending "our country", "Democracy", or rarely "the Constitution"), but when we came back and saw the injustice of our leadership, we were strictly forbidden to be Heroes, to actually defend the Constitution.
Take a look at military suicide rates; take a look at PTSD and other mental-health problems. I suspect that these are all related: that this is the response to what C. S. Lewis wrote:
“And all the time — such is the tragi-comedy of our situation — we continue to clamour for those very qualities we are rendering impossible. You can hardly open a periodical without coming across the statement that what our civilization needs is more 'drive', or dynamism, or self-sacrifice, or 'creativity'. In a sort of ghastly simplicity we remove the organ and demand the function. We make men without chests and expect of them virtue and enterprise. We laugh at honour and are shocked to find traitors in our midst. We castrate and bid the geldings be fruitful.”

Wazdakka wrote:Genx nomads.
Well yes that sums up most of my school friends and me.
Millennials as heroes? Although they started a bit shaky they still have time to grow up.

Thank you.
There are, IMO, a lot of Melinneals who want to see Justice done, real Justice and not BS for-show crap like Wells Fargo getting $2000/case fines for their identity-theft conspiracy… the "and now you don't exist" sort of that Boomers won't allow because "Muh Economy!" — People point to SJWs as a millennial thing, and I won't argue against it, but I will point out that a Satanic twisting of the desire for Justice may well produce that sort of behavior.

It actually gives me hope, for I can see that if we-as-society turn from our evil ways then God will surely relent from destroying us.

kurt9 wrote:However, entrepreneurship has declined significantly since around 2000 and the Millennials are far less entrepreneurial than either the late boomers or GenXer's that preceed them. The Millennials cannot be the forth turning generation. Is it the GenZ's? Its too early to tell. the oldest GenZ's are about 20.
Millenials had their feet cut out from under them repeatedly: endless wars, then the 2008 bust, destroying the ability to build our enterprises… the regulatory hurdles. — I would love to build a manufacturing plant in my hometown, which bleeds "young folk" because there aren't any good technical jobs to be had… but I don't have enough money to see it done.

Blogger OneWingedShark March 16, 2020 1:22 PM  

Jack Amok wrote:They only way to do that is to suck all the opportunity away from the Millennials, never giving that generation the chance to step up.
This is honestly how life feels for me: getting up, ready to [hopefully] succeed… and then it all falls apart.
I put myself through college w/o loans, thanks to the Army, only to get blasted by the 2008 'recession' - I went in STEM because I was well-suited for it, only to see the entire field flooded with foreigners - I saved as much as I could, only to get clinically depressed after caring for my Grandpa as he died of cancer and having to live off that for a couple years.

Job La Salle wrote:On a positive note, having their best years stolen from them has instilled some Millennials with an unquenchable hatred for the enemies of the West. That cohort will provide much of the leadership to the Zoomers.
Watch how "treat invaders like invaders" is responded to.

Unknown wrote:Millennials, let play the hand we were dealt and make this world better for our kids. Remember seek the good, the beautiful and the True.
Amen!

Gastguma wrote:Millennials have suffered from delayed development. They have a tendency to reach the major milestones and epiphanies of life later than normal. They fact that they have yet attained hero status does not necessarily mean they won't.
This; constantly getting our feet kicked out from under us is making us more sure-footed, I think. Sure, there's a huge portion that are loud, whiny, and entitled… but I think there's even more that have learned to shut up and "plod" along.

Up from the pond wrote:Haven't seen much respect for artisans in U.S.A., not in my lifetime anyway. 50 years.

What I saw was people who work with their hands to create the useful, true, and beautiful being called two alternating epithets: "loser greasemonkeys" and "faggots."

Boomers: I can't make money off you, so you're worthless!
Also Boomers: You work for my pleasure, so you get paid peanuts so I can have more, now get back to work worthless!
*sigh* — You just can't win with them, which is why "Ok, Boomer." is a thing.

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