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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Mailvox: death in Holland

A reader analyzes the death rates in The Netherlands and concludes that corona-chan is not a complete hoax:
I did an analysis of deaths in 2020 in the Netherlands. Long story short, it's not all fake, something is killing people over 65 beyond demographic expectations. The Netherlands collects meticulous population data and has made historical data publicly available. I've combined general population numbers and deaths from the past 25 years to see if 2020 carries an increased risk of death.

Goal: Compare the expected vs actual deaths in 2020 across 3 age groups
  • 0-65 years old
  • 65-80 years old
  • 80+ years old
Method:
  • We know how many people died in each age group, every week, for the past 24 years.
  • We know the total size of each age group for the past 24 years.
  • Thus we can estimate the weekly chance of dying for each age group, for the past 24 years
  • We can take the average weekly chance of dying and apply it to current population to estimate the deaths per age group
Observations:
  • Morbidity/mortality has decreased the past 24 years, most visible in the 80+ age group (13% yearly mortality in 1995 vs 10.8% in 2019)
  • 2019 was a mild year across age groups
  • Winter of 2017/2018 had a nasty flu season around week 10
  • Winter of 1999/2000 had a nasty flu season around week 1, comparable to the peak in 2020
  • Deaths in 0-65 age group was 3% less than compared to past 3 year average, and 14% less than the 24 year average
  • Deaths in 65-80 age group was 10% higher than past 3-year average, but still 14% less than 24-year average
  • Deaths in 80+ age group was 6% higher than past 3-year average and 2% higher than the 24-year average
  • Peak in 2020 is outside of the regular flu season
Translation: the coronavirus was worse than the regular flu, but not massively worse. Certainly not bad enough to justify the global pandemic panic. Which again tends to point us toward the conclusion that there is something else happening here.

Labels: , ,

86 Comments:

Blogger MichaelJMaier April 28, 2020 11:07 AM  

Which is exactly what I figured when this mess started killing in Italy. Still seems as though there is not enough attention paid to TB being the real / co- killer here.

Probably because that would lead to a discussion about the ramifications of vibrancy.

Blogger Section 8A April 28, 2020 11:08 AM  

"Which again tends to point us toward the conclusion that there is something else happening here."

This was the question we were asking in our maskless, illegal meeting last night. Because it doesn't make sense, the reaction is so overblown.... who benefits? One of the patterns is the Dem / Lib governors & mayors going extra hard on lockdown. It's a pattern that's easy to see. I wonder what their marching orders were and from whom?

Blogger carnaby April 28, 2020 11:09 AM  

Possible the 2020 numbers could have resulted without Corona, I don't see anything in his analysis indicating otherwise. 2019 being a mild season, perhaps more people remaining who would be susceptible to an ordinary season, hence higher morbidity in 2020?

Blogger Ominous Cowherd April 28, 2020 11:15 AM  

Netherlands. Euthanasia. 80+ age group getting hammered.

Has there been a change in policy about killing old people?

Blogger Timmy3 April 28, 2020 11:19 AM  

I neither trust the the Wuhan Virus is no more serious than the common flu or it’s so serious the economy must fully stop. Simply, the treatment is all over the place and old patients are still dying despite the treatments available that use existing anti-malaria drugs and antibiotics. This pandemic is prolonged due to politics.

Blogger Crew April 28, 2020 11:27 AM  

Heh. The great Boomer payback!

If only they had targeted Boomers like Al Gore!

Blogger jdwalker April 28, 2020 11:33 AM  

It's interesting to see the development of regional pacts among states for lifting restrictions with the history of the Civil War and the prediction of the break up of the US in the next couple of decades.

Blogger History Diver April 28, 2020 11:39 AM  

On the other hand no comparable measures are taken against the seasonal flue. Granted, a fraction of the elderly are vaccinated against the common strains but that is really just a coin toss.

Blogger Oswald April 28, 2020 11:40 AM  

I am wondering what the next thing will be:

Second wave of coronavirus?

Famine?

War?

Wild Animal Attacks?

Blogger rumpole5 April 28, 2020 11:45 AM  

What you are seeing is the "hangover" from measures that were sensible a month ago, when most of the information was coming from Wuhan. Those measures are now obviously overkill now that we have better facts. It is time to open back up and go on with our lives.

Blogger Azimus April 28, 2020 11:45 AM  

In my opinion they should be tracking the spike in cancer deaths and heart disease deaths outside the norm for the next 24 months and call them "coronavirus lockdown related deaths"

Blogger Akulkis April 28, 2020 11:51 AM  

Translation: the coronavirus was worse than the regular flu, but not massively worse.

Of course, these numbers are comparing morbidity during normal flu seasons with everybody going around spreading whatever pathogens vs. corona-chan with 90% of the population locked down in their homes.

This to me indicates that if it weren't for the lockdowns, we would be seeing the sort of death numbers that when the bodies were cremated in Wuhan, the entire area for miles around had such dense smoke that photographs out apartment windows looked like a dense fog had descended upon the city, and the levels detected by satellite sensors indicated SO2 levels over 4x higher than Beijing's air, the most industrialized city on the planet which is literally ringed with coal-burning electric power plants and no scrubbers in the smoke stacks.

Blogger Eugenius BEar April 28, 2020 11:55 AM  

The last bullet item is what intrigues me the most as it suggests there may be some other underlying factor at work. The order to stay at home and stay isolated comes to mind.

Thinking out loud, the consequences of the stay at home order would likely lead to a) reduced exposure to sunlight and its resultant impact on immune systems b) reduced physical activity, c) reduced physical contact / interaction and d) reduced social contact / interaction.

One would assume, which may be incorrect, that Coronavirus would be an amplification of the seasonal flu. If this were the case, a shifting of the peak outside of the regular flu season might actually be related to unintended consequences of the stay at home order.

OTOH, a shifting of the peak could suggest "coronavirus" is not really what it is purported to be, and might actually be the manifestation of some other underlying cause.

I am curious if the reader is able to bring other variables into their analysis.....perhaps run the analysis with some data that proxies for sunlight exposure....or perhaps run it against flu shot inoculations. Maybe there is a correlation to the number of flu shots taken in the year prior? Maybe there is a correlation to the average date flu shots were administered in the current year? Harder to find, but even more interesting would be is there a correlation to the aggregate number of flu shot taken by individuals?

Blogger Salt April 28, 2020 11:55 AM  

The Elites create, or at best take advantage of, a crisis then step in to solve it. It's not the virus but the ensuing disruptions to supply chains and food distribution. It's about power and control with perhaps a touch of population reduction thrown in for good measure.

Blogger bramley April 28, 2020 12:01 PM  

boomers and bust

Blogger AndyT April 28, 2020 12:06 PM  

What is not being mentioned though is that during a regular flue season there are no "special measures" taken - no lock-downs, no social distancing, no up-scaling of PPE for providers.

The bump above the "regular flu" season is including a sizable bump in precautions.

Blogger AndyT April 28, 2020 12:12 PM  

In my opinion they should be tracking the spike in cancer deaths and heart disease deaths outside the norm for the next 24 months and call them "coronavirus lockdown related deaths"

This is pretty normal when you are tracking results of something like this. Official death stats for hurricanes/natural disasters, for example, track not only people killed by wind or flooding but also because they had a normally preventable medical emergency when the system was unavailable, for example.

Blogger d April 28, 2020 12:18 PM  

Factor in the reports of state-run, state-sponsored medical facilities using the government-induced chaos as cover to wipe their biggest liabilities from their spreadsheets.

In spain, for example, they were euthenizing the elderly, sans patient/family permission, due to a supposed shortage of respirators.

In New York, they seeded nursing homes with diseased corona-chan patients.

Several tweets from staff indicate they are terrified of catching this magical cold and so simply abandon their elderly patients to slowly starve and die, after which they call the ambulance, and such is certified a corona-chan death.

That, and the very unhealthy government-mandated rules of house arrest, shortages of cleaning supplies and fresh paper products, all of which tend to lessen overall health.

Blogger Haus frau April 28, 2020 12:26 PM  

I was talking to a woman who holds a master's degree in nursing yesterday. She specializes in pediatrics. She told me she thinks a covid deaths are being under counted because they are not including the odd cardiac and stroke deaths from circulatory occlusions that are occurring. I dont think its the Spanish flu but this stuff is certainlynot to be ignored either.

Blogger Ingemar April 28, 2020 12:40 PM  

I'm not aboard the "Corona is 100% fake" train, but that's not to say I'm not on the "Corona is < 100% fake" train. If the bioweapon hypothesis is true, then the way I see it playing out is this--let a weak strain cause a panic in the general populace to induce worldwide shutdown, then when the people start questioning the Narrative, release a stronger strain to suppress wrongthink (when government, media and social pressure is not convincing enough).

Blogger LES April 28, 2020 12:57 PM  

I try to stay informed, but I can’t seem to separate the information from the misinformation from the disinformation. If everyone is an expert on the virus then nobody is. However, I don't doubt that the elite are finding ways to take advantage of the situation.

Blogger Crew April 28, 2020 1:14 PM  

How do the 'deaths' from Coronavirus compare with those from Vioxx?

https://www.unz.com/runz/chinese-melamine-and-american-vioxx-a-comparison/

Blogger Macs April 28, 2020 1:20 PM  

The boomers are scheduled to start dying-off in droves of flu and respiratory illnesses. Why let a chance to make trillions go to waste as well as consolidate power? Boomers are naturally so self-absorbed that they play right along, even as they are being murdered in the homes.

Blogger thethirdcoast April 28, 2020 1:23 PM  

Put me down for, "It's just the flu, bro."

The lockdowns are largely a joke considering the virus' lifespan on various surfaces and the fact everyone is going to the supermarket Wal-Mart, and Costco.

NYC is an outlier due to their filthy, Third World subway system. It was absolutely wrong to try and shutdown the rest of country based on that. The Midwestern governors who refused to shut down were correct in their assessment.

The giveaway that this is mass psyop designed to steal people's money and freedom are the wheeled goalposts with regard to the death counts, testing regime, and re-opening criteria.

The Establishment's absolute certainty that a vaccine is the only true solution to the virus is another tell this is an op. At least the docs in NYC haven't fallen for it and are reporting some positive effects treating patients with an over the counter antacid.

I know this all sounds far too cavalier for those who think this is an ELE and there will be stacks of bodies and tens of millions dead in the second wave.

All I can say is that we weren't put here to live in a state of perpetual fear, and I don't believe that kind of life is one worth living.

Blogger Patrick Kelly April 28, 2020 1:44 PM  

Ingemar wrote:I'm not aboard the "Corona is 100% fake" train, but that's not to say I'm not on the "Corona is < 100% fake" train. If the bioweapon hypothesis is true, then the way I see it playing out is this--let a weak strain cause a panic in the general populace to induce worldwide shutdown, then when the people start questioning the Narrative, release a stronger strain to suppress wrongthink (when government, media and social pressure is not convincing enough).

I am very skeptical anyone has that level or certainty and control. At best they could design and expect marginal trends and effects. Maybe that's enough.

Blogger Leoric April 28, 2020 1:53 PM  

As far as NYC goes it is now almost at 100% mask coverage when I go out. A lot of business stayed open. Disruptions to non essential economy were big. Social distancing is being practiced a lot. Ofcourse a lot of incapable people exist so it is not perfect.

For my self all I can say is that Ambulance sirens are far more common now than they were pre Corona. I would say if you can follow social distancing without a highcost you should.

It sucks that a lot of people are not financially prepared for Corona and the general depression that was coming without it.

Blogger Sean April 28, 2020 1:53 PM  

I was watching the video of 2 California doctors arguing that shutdown restrictions should be lifted - they claimed, using evidence that the corona virus is on-par with the flu. When I went back to get the link, I saw that they were censored: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=14&v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=emb_title

Link to an article describing the video: https://www.redstate.com/jeffc/2020/04/28/youtube-takes-down-video-of-california-doctors-who-argued-for-lifting-covid-19-restrictions/

Blogger Aetherdad April 28, 2020 2:11 PM  

This post brought to you by Las Vegas Public Radio and Huawei; now back to the music, Blondie (Heart of Glass), Cyprus Hill (Insane in the Membrane) and Peoples Radio of China (Advancing Through Snow and Marsh 1965).

Blogger Damelon Brinn April 28, 2020 2:16 PM  

What you are seeing is the "hangover" from measures that were sensible a month ago, when most of the information was coming from Wuhan.

The day the NCAA canceled the tournament, which generates 80% of their revenue, my dad asked why all these governments and organizations were (it seemed) jumping the gun and shutting things down so quickly, when so little was known then. My take then was that the authorities *had to* know more than they were saying: that it was an escaped bioweapon, in an unknown stage of development, which was hitting China much worse than they admitted, and therefore *could* be very nasty for everyone. That was the only reason I could see for so many different governments and organizations to get on the same side of the thing so quickly, especially since that put them on the same side as President Trump.

I've seen nothing yet to change that view. If it turns out to have been less virulent here than they feared, that's great news; but it only makes it more certain that they knew something to prompt a much stronger reaction than there would have been if a naturally-occurring pandemic was causing the same initial casualty numbers.

The state-wide shutdowns have been stupid and predictably political, because now they've decided it's a way to get Trump. In Illinois, the entire state is locked down because Chicago (i.e. Africans) can't be trusted to use some common sense, and the governor isn't willing to admit that and give the rest of the state a break. In my parents' county, there's only been one case, but everything's shut down all the same. Churches are sitting empty on weekdays, when they would have had 8 people at daily Mass who could have sat 50 feet from each other. None of that is helping. Speakeasies are already developing.

Blogger Damelon Brinn April 28, 2020 2:25 PM  

The bump above the "regular flu" season is including a sizable bump in precautions.

Right. Just shutting down schools had to have had a major effect, since they are normally a major vector for passing communicable illnesses around a community. That's what makes "opening it up" tricky now. There will be more cases, and presumably more deaths, if we try to go back to normal. The key would seem to be to do it at a rate the hospitals can handle, and stop keeping doctors from using the available treatments. That's probably too much to ask, though.

Blogger Mocheirge April 28, 2020 2:37 PM  

Given Vox's definition of civilization as the "art of permitting large numbers of people to live in close proximity without dying like flies", we now have more proof that filthy Yankees are not civilized.

Blogger Gracie April 28, 2020 3:09 PM  

It's not a hoax. I have nurse friends on the front lines here in CT. I've know two people who wound up in the ICU. I can't say that of any flu, not even H1N1. One of them, a son of a friend died, early thirties. The widow was on with Anderson Copper in the past week. He was a cancer survivor and my guess is he had chemo. That stuff will destroy your health even when it "cures" the cancer. I'm still not convinced they have the correct protocol. So sad.

Blogger Yossarian April 28, 2020 3:25 PM  

65 is the retirement age in the Netherlands as well as other countries. In my country people above 65 have been issued a curfew and travel restrictions. It's as if the politicians involved see us as pensioners and non-pensioners. Technically speaking you can run a Ponzi scheme ad infinitum if you just kill off the oldest investors.

Blogger Silly but True April 28, 2020 3:28 PM  

I questioned whether Dutch Boomers as bad as American Boomers? And Holland says it’s actually their centennial boomers — they had a “first” boom before WW1 — which are the worst:
https://www.hollandtimes.nl/articles/national/a-new-type-of-baby-boomers-on-the-rise/

Blogger weka April 28, 2020 3:31 PM  

Yes. You can kill the demented without their consent in Holland.

Blogger zonnewind April 28, 2020 3:32 PM  

I'm from the netherlands and reached a similar conclusion, it's ~20% worse than our worst flu year of the past 25y weekly deathrate, and the difference with flu is that corona sends way more people at a time into the medical pipeline. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWZ4fztXkAEo_Mj?format=png&name=900x900

Blogger Redneck Joe April 28, 2020 4:52 PM  

@27 Sean
https://www.bitchute.com/video/oGVRqleTzzMi/?fbclid=IwAR1lSKQmJ7lOViPKPxRie0HMeSi_apteMTpvONq2EkxEF4sc8cqoBJDMOCc

Blogger Scuzzaman April 28, 2020 4:53 PM  

"Just shutting down schools had to have had a major effect, since they are normally a major vector for passing communicable illnesses around a community."

In other words, for spreading natural immunity by exposing increasing numbers of immune systems.

You cannot live in a bubble and nor can any substantial proportion of the population.

There's no such thing as safety, only degrees of risk.

Some people need to grow up.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine April 28, 2020 4:55 PM  

"Translation: the coronavirus was worse than the regular flu, but not massively worse. Certainly not bad enough to justify the global pandemic panic."

Yeah figured that a while ago. It meets epidemic criteria, but on the very low end, and because it's all over the place it qualifies as pandemic. Binary thinking means most people default to either/or "it's nothing" or "it's the end of the world".

Most people have no sense of modern population scale either. For instance even if there WERE 100,000 deaths in NY state, their annual death toll is many times higher. Someone somewhere considers this line of thought callous. Conveniently if so, I don't care.

"What you are seeing is the "hangover" from measures that were sensible a month ago, when most of the information was coming from Wuhan."

I've been saying since a month before quarantine in the USA that if quarantine goes for more than about one month the cure is going to be worse than the disease. Politics often has little to do with the truth though.

"What is not being mentioned though is that during a regular flue season there are no "special measures" taken - no lock-downs, no social distancing, no up-scaling of PPE for providers."

We've been over that before. If the disease is communicable enough that everyone gets it anyway with practicable quarantine measures, which Corona-Chan is, the only point of quarantine is to avoid overloading medical infrastructure beyond what you have to.

Put me down for: "It's a nasty flu particularly for the elderly, but anyone below about 65 is at nearly identical risk to any other week plus length flu, which is infinitesimal unless compounded with other severe health issues."

These quarantine measures aren't in the same order of magnitude as what would actually stop it. Because of that, the longer they go on the more of a joke they'll become.

Blogger Scuzzaman April 28, 2020 4:55 PM  

As for the original article, there's nothing there not accountable by noise alone. You cannot treat any average as an absolute baseline.

Not to say that something new is not happening. Maybe it is. You just cannot demonstrate that from these numbers.

Blogger RMH in StL April 28, 2020 5:09 PM  

This virus may be comparable to the flu in its mortality rate, and yet be exponentially more contagious than the flu. If that is the case, then of course the number of deaths will be much higher since so many more people will contract it.

Blogger eclecticmn April 28, 2020 5:13 PM  

It is great that Holland has current deaths from all causes.
I have not found such data in the US. US govt data seems to lag reality by several weeks. Current total MN COVID-19 deaths are: 301 from the Minn state dept of health site but 135 from the US govt CDC site. The worldometers site harvests the 301 number from the state. The MN number may be gamed but it is current.

People outside the US do not understand why we do not have govt run health care. Please see above. The US govt is incompetent. Bayer donated lots of HCQ pills and tweeted that it was for COVID-19. That was a offense punishable by prison time and being banned from receiving any govt reimbursement. Read or watch Cardiac Arrest by Howard Root.

South Korea had their first COVID-19 case and OKed testing one week later. The US FDA interfered with testing for 6 weeks.

Blogger freddie_mac April 28, 2020 5:29 PM  

coronavirus was worse than the regular flu, but not massively worse

In the US, we currently have 1m confirmed Covid cases. With an estimated population of 330m, 1/2% = 1.65m. So, our positive cases are currently less than 1/2% of the total population, which justifies locking down the entire country and wrecking the economy.

Some states (NY/NJ) have had a significant amount of cases and deaths, but the rest of us are not NY/NJ: WY has ~380 cases and a total of 7 deaths (est 550k population).

However, this lock down madness has exposed lots of crazy people in powerful positions.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd April 28, 2020 5:31 PM  

Damelon Brinn wrote:My take then was that the authorities *had to* know more than they were saying: that it was an escaped bioweapon, in an unknown stage of development, which was hitting China much worse than they admitted, and therefore *could* be very nasty for everyone.
They may not have been sure of anything except that the peachmints had failed, and they needed to come up with a new way to attack OrangeManBad ASAP.

Trump ran with it, and now the Left owns the Chinkypox Depression.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine April 28, 2020 5:57 PM  

"Chinkypox Depression."

If that's yours it's pretty good.

Blogger SomeOne April 28, 2020 7:41 PM  

Much same applies to Sweden and Switzerland it would seem - I've been keeping track of all cause deaths of both countries.

Deaths of persons under the age of 65 remain completely unaffected.

For over 65s, it appears CV19 is knocking off those that dodged the usual bullet in the very mild flu season just completed, and bringing forward the deaths of those prime candidates who may have lasted till next flu season.

Average age of CV19 dead is generally the same as the normal average life expectancy of that country, so no years of life are being lost in that sense.

Can provide the graphs with source data if you want VD.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd April 28, 2020 7:43 PM  

Azure, I didn't coin Chinkypox, but I know a good thing when I steal it. I found it over at Filthie's Thunderbox. I forget who he stole it from.

Blogger Ingot9455 April 28, 2020 8:11 PM  

@41 You mistake incompetence for active evil. Too many government people made too many actively harmful decisions for it to be incompetence.

Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.

Blogger Kiwi April 28, 2020 8:23 PM  

I worked in a home for the elderly, around 50 people lived there. Their last stop they told me and indeed people passing away wasn't unusual. When we had some sort of outbreak it was quickly isolated and the place cleaned down - every surface and I mean every, about 4 hrs it took while folks remained in their rooms. Those infected stayed in their rooms (think nice hotel suites) until they were cleared of illness. Strict procedures were followed when entering and exiting those rooms. The only times I saw this strategy activated were for fast moving things like stomach bugs, where if everyone caught it we wouldn't have been able to cope with the amount of personal care required, we would have needed 150 extra staff.

In NZ we have had several covid clusters in our aged care facilities (Origin unknown). At first there was only one but now there is four or five, perhaps a Dr. in common is the culprit in the spread. Most of our deaths come from these places. We can see how many in each facility has been infected and when another person becomes infected. As someone who has worked in these sorts of places I find it hard to believe they couldn't have isolated it effectively if it was just the flu or some other regularly infectious bug. Perhaps one facility might have explained poor procedures but surely not in that many and no doubt they will be receiving extra government intervention because of the seriousness of it.

Lets say they got the extra staff required to isolate each person in their rooms, which you presume with government involved they will have. If it's still spreading then it must have had a longer incubation period than first thought or perhaps it's airborne to a greater extent than suggested.

A lot of our people are back at work this week, but our most vulnerable are still hiding out, as I'm sure they are in other countries regardless of the legalities. Driving around, our visible population looks remarkably healthy and sporty. Because we aren't all free ranging as usual it's very hard to determine just what's happening, but if the numbers we're receiving are true then I doubt it's a hoax.



Blogger JohnofAustria April 28, 2020 8:39 PM  

Right but they will then attribute those deaths to Corona not to the fact that we all freaked out about Corona instead of staying sane.

Blogger JohnofAustria April 28, 2020 8:40 PM  

Yeah it's not a lockdown when we all end up going to the grocery store every other day anyways.

Blogger JohnofAustria April 28, 2020 8:42 PM  

But we need to have more cases. And at least so far nowhere in the country our hospitals overwhelmed except for certain parts of New York City. Out in the sticks in fact they are shutting down or laying people off because nobody is paying them for anything.

Blogger JohnofAustria April 28, 2020 8:43 PM  

You also have the inverse of that a friend of my sister's was part into a medical, and into baited because his cough wouldn't go away and now he has renal failure. So it's difficult to say this is proof the virus is this deadly.

Blogger JohnofAustria April 28, 2020 8:43 PM  

Amen.

Blogger JohnofAustria April 28, 2020 8:45 PM  

Yup people already spend plenty of time in close proximity now we're just funneled into fewer businesses.

Blogger JohnofAustria April 28, 2020 8:46 PM  

It's a psychological trend among people that Lee in our direction that they are generally hesitant to assign malicious intent as the motive and have to be trained out of this prejudice.

Blogger Akulkis April 28, 2020 8:59 PM  

" One of the patterns is the Dem / Lib governors & mayors going extra hard on lockdown."

Look at their constituencies. It's an unintended gift to the rest of us -- even the crooks are staying home (although the undocumented pharmacists seem to still be going at it full blast -- strange that the cops aren't arresting them, seeing how most all other crime is down drastically).

Blogger Akulkis April 28, 2020 9:04 PM  

"This pandemic is prolonged due to politics."

No... if you "flatten the curve" then you, by necessity, increase the duration. Some states are doing way TOO good a job of preventing the spread of corona-chan, in that the hospitals are near empty -- that means there are enough people getting exposed to it, so that when the controls are lifted, those states will still have near-100% unexposed populations.

"Flatten the curve" too much and you'll get a serious break out as soon as the lockdowns are ended.

Blogger Akulkis April 28, 2020 9:13 PM  

"
NYC is an outlier due to their filthy, Third World subway system. It was absolutely wrong to try and shutdown the rest of country based on that. The Midwestern governors who refused to shut down were correct in their assessment."

Metro Detroit is being hit nearly as hard and
1) We have no subway system
2) The bus system is avoided by most everybody who can except for on some special occasions (like the Independence Day/Canada Day/"Freedom Festival Fireworks"... which, strangely, are never on either Canada Day OR Independence Day) and lots of people don't want to park downtown and be stuck in a 2-hour traffic jam.

Blogger Akulkis April 28, 2020 9:16 PM  

"I was watching the video of 2 California doctors arguing that shutdown restrictions should be lifted - they claimed, using evidence that the corona virus is on-par with the flu"

There are a lot of doctors.. .both MD's and PhD's, who are complete idiots.

Blogger Akulkis April 28, 2020 9:23 PM  

"In other words, for spreading natural immunity by exposing increasing numbers of immune systems.

You cannot live in a bubble and nor can any substantial proportion of the population."

In 3 counties around Detroit, there's not a single empty bed. Every single bed has a COVID-19 patient in it.

And Michigan was the first state to shut down.

Blogger Akulkis April 28, 2020 9:27 PM  

"Put me down for: "It's a nasty flu particularly for the elderly, but anyone below about 65 is at nearly identical risk to any other week plus length flu, which is infinitesimal unless compounded with other severe health issues."

Ordinary flu generally doesn't leave a person's body severely injured. For example: "ground glass sign" on your lung X-ray AFTER you've supposedly recovered is not a good thing, nor even benign. It means you'll have decreased lung capacity for the rest of your life.

Blogger Damelon Brinn April 28, 2020 9:55 PM  

Some states are doing way TOO good a job of preventing the spread of corona-chan,

Yeah, if the theory is that it's going to spread no matter what you do, so the goal is to slow it down enough that the hospitals can keep up, then we're doing it too well except in a few cities. My county has 25 ICU beds, and officially they haven't had more than 3 Corona patients in them at the same time yet. Right now there's 1, though that's probably about to change since a few cases just popped up at a local nursing home. We might as well open some more businesses and let that creep up closer to capacity.

By the way, you have to wonder how it can suddenly show up at a rural nursing home (with white employees), when I'm pretty sure people aren't even allowed to visit them right now. I realize employees are going in and out, and residents have to make hospital and VA visits. It still seems like with all the extra attention they're putting on it in those places, it would be hard for it to get in there. Sometimes it seems like it's transmitted very easily, and then other times not so much.

Blogger Smug Fence-Sitter April 29, 2020 2:07 AM  

Wild speculation... Pozzed election software already in their chamber.
New insistence on remote voting.

"oH wOw jOe bIdEn wInS iN A lAnDsLiDe..."

Blogger Gurpgork April 29, 2020 3:16 AM  

What this indicates is that with the lockdowns and other measures we managed to bring it down to a seasonal flu, not that corona is harmless. You can't compare corona figures with lockdown in place with seasonal flu where everyone is stil moving around and meeting eachother.
second, the Netherlands under reports deaths, several doctors have complained about this. If you weren't tested you don't count as corona death. Even if you have all the symptoms and a doctor diagnoses you with corona.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine April 29, 2020 5:20 AM  

"Ordinary flu generally doesn't leave a person's body severely injured."

Likely neither does this. That's one result observed of people who had it bad enough that they checked into the hospital. Even if it were absolutely everyone who showed that, how generally severe?

Offhand I'd bet only the people having cytokine storms end up with anything of the sort, and that's not even a double digit percent.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine April 29, 2020 5:24 AM  

"What this indicates is that with the lockdowns and other measures we managed to bring it down to a seasonal flu"

Only if you first assume that our feeble precautions actually curtailed the propagation rather than only slowing it somewhat. I still think it hit a lot of us back in early February.

Blogger Akulkis April 29, 2020 6:06 AM  

"second, the Netherlands under reports deaths, several doctors have complained about this. If you weren't tested you don't count as corona death. Even if you have all the symptoms and a doctor diagnoses you with corona."

This is why China's numbers are so low.

Actual DEATHS are in the millions.

Blogger Bodo Staron April 29, 2020 6:29 AM  

These stats are collected every week in Europe. Fancy graphs and maps: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
Look at UK, it's crazy.

Blogger Damelon Brinn April 29, 2020 8:52 AM  

I still think it hit a lot of us back in early February.

In my county, they've tested about 1000 people now and found 40 positives, for a rate of 4%. They've tested mainly people who showed symptoms and people who came into contact with known carriers, especially those in health care. So while there could be other already-had-it individuals out there, there's zero reason to think the rate would be *higher* in the rest of the population than it is in those most likely to have caught it.

On the other hand, if there's a big population of people who already had it, and the tests aren't finding antibodies in them, then already having it is irrelevant, because they could catch it again or it could reemerge from hiding in the body like some other viruses. If the antibodies don't last more than weeks, then forget about herd immunity, and certainly forget about a vaccine, unless Bill Gates thinks he's going to sell us a monthly booster shot.

Blogger Duke Norfolk April 29, 2020 9:28 AM  

Here's some good stuff on Vit D3 levels and the Chinkypox:
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/04/28/covid-update-focus-on-vitamin-d/

Very strong evidence that Vit D3 is very good protectant against Kungflu (no surprise to many here, I'm sure; but good to get confirmation). Sample size is lower than I'd like, but you take what you can get.

Dr. Kendrick is a good guy. Scottish GP who has been notable as a cholesterol-as-bad-guy skeptic for long time.

Blogger Crew April 29, 2020 9:51 AM  

Interesting numbers from the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/

Is it simply a case that the death reports are still trickling in?

The drop off in deaths in the last two weeks looks promising otherwise.

Blogger kmbr April 29, 2020 10:16 AM  

My issue with this virus is-does it go away? Do you ever clear the virus? Many stories of reinfection. The use of the HIV glycoprotein 120. The stories that it is attacking the t-cells. The strange aaray of symptoms. The seemingly large amounts of "asymptomatic" infected.

I don' think *they* know, it's too soon to draws conclusions and *they* aren't going to tell you until they absolutely can't hide it.

Blogger Crew April 29, 2020 11:22 AM  

@73: The stories that it is attacking the t-cells.

This seems unlikely. It would need spike proteins that bind to ACE2 receptors and T-Cell receptors (The stories that it is attacking the t-cells.) and T-Cell receptors are many and varied.

In addition, a complex virus with many different spike proteins would soon run into issues around the fact that RNA copying is much more error prone than DNA copying.

Blogger Boaty Bear April 29, 2020 12:09 PM  

The two Californian Dr's YT is trying to censor.
https://youtu.be/h4KygJTzgdg

Did Holland isolate?

The ABSOLUTELY wrong thing to have done if you were fit and healthy.

Blogger Crew April 29, 2020 12:15 PM  

@74: However, see: https://www.labroots.com/trending/immunology/17341/covid-19-attack-immune-systems-hiv

However, I wonder whether or not we are seeing normal aging here with older people unable to create or ramp up enough T-cells.

Blogger Akulkis April 29, 2020 1:38 PM  

"The seemingly large amounts of "asymptomatic" infected."

NONE of the current tests are specific to THIS particular virus.

Most of the tests will come up false positive if you've had ANY coronavirus infection in recent months ... and many coronaviruses produce completely asymptomatic infections in many people.

Thus, the "The denominator is MUCH BIGGER than the official numbers" is not necessarily true, and, in fact, is most likely false.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine April 29, 2020 2:18 PM  

"and the tests aren't finding antibodies in them"

I don't have a great degree of trust in those either. I expect large ratios of both false positives and negatives. It's also pretty likely that there are several different derivatives of legit CV19 going around. All of the talk and rumours about it really expose just how much no one at all knows, and how regularly people are willing to spread information for no reason beyond it supporting what they already wanted to believe.

I've heard that it kills via the lungs, that it's not even significantly damaging to the lungs unless someone already had TB or the like, that it directly reduces red cell count and/or blood oxygenation apart from the lungs, that it causes meningitis, that it attacks the kidneys and liver, and several other stories. They're probably all true... in a vanishingly small amount of the population for most of them, and good luck picking which is which amidst the endless percolation of the collective wish-it-and-scream-it machine.

The denominator is definitely larger than the official numbers, and by a lot. However what people think is "a lot" will vary quite a bit from one to another. You can see this is reports from some of the hostpot hospitals where basically everyone coming in either had it or had had it prior, even though the large majority of them were coming in for completely unrelated reasons. This was controlled for in-hospital transmission possibility before you ask, so it's not that they all just got it in the last couple of days of being in the hospital and didn't have time for serious symptoms to manifest.

Permanent lung damage is not only possible but almost certain, but it needs to be answered, how much? Nearly any random disease will cause some permanent damage, but if it's below certain thresholds no one notices unless they're hypochondriaching it under a microscope, which people definitely are with this.

Even after all that, we know for certain that every Tom, Dick, and Harry with a political agenda and any sort of dishonest streak is trumpeting their own tailored version in order to push said agenda. Quelle surprise.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine April 29, 2020 2:20 PM  

"So while there could be other already-had-it individuals out there, there's zero reason to think the rate would be *higher* in the rest of the population than it is in those most likely to have caught it."

...in your county. And those are people who tested pos, not who were necessarily symptomatic.

Blogger Eugenius BEar April 29, 2020 3:57 PM  

OK....now they are coming out and trying to push that there is a connection between COVID-19 and Kawasaki disease. My youngest son has Kawasaki disease. Its scary as $%^&, but it causes has been credibly linked to heavy metal exposure - particularly mercury and cadmium.

I smell something rotten. This has the feel of a set up cover story for the effects of children being injected with heavy metals.

Blogger RMH in StL April 29, 2020 5:29 PM  

My sister (a Doctor in Chicago) informs me they now have a strong candidate for a vaccine developed in Great Britain. It was originally an anti-SARS vaccine I believe. Since the two viruses share a great deal in common it was considered a possibility. And since it is an older vaccine, it has already gone through many time consuming steps. Her estimate is a head start of about 8 to 10 months over the typical 18 months to two years process from initial development to approval for general use.
It was recently given to 6 monkeys here in the U.S. (apparently outlawed in the UK). Weeks later they were exposed to massive viral loads. None of the 6 have developed Corona-Chan. Human trials were approved and are being implemented.

Blogger Damelon Brinn April 29, 2020 6:48 PM  

NONE of the current tests are specific to THIS particular virus.

I've been wondering about that, because I've seen hints now and then that that might be the case, but nothing clear-cut. (Most people talking about this wouldn't know the difference.) And yet in my county, testing a lot of people who have shown symptoms of fever and cough, they've only gotten 4% positives. It seems like more than 4% would have general coronavirus antibodies, here at the tail end of cold season.

But the bottom line is: if they're not testing for SARS-Cov2, but for any old coronavirus antibodies, then all the conclusions people are coming to based on those numbers are worthless.

Blogger Crew April 29, 2020 10:28 PM  

WRT multiple proteins on the surface of viruses, the Flu, HxNy actually expresses two (or three) on its surface: Hemagglutinin and Neuraminidase. So, it is not beyond impossible that the corona virus might express more than one protein on its surface.

It's also notable that healthy humans express sialic acid in their mucus which binds to Flu virus particles and prevents them from getting to cells.

Blogger Akulkis April 30, 2020 8:58 AM  

"But the bottom line is: if they're not testing for SARS-Cov2, but for any old coronavirus antibodies, then all the conclusions people are coming to based on those numbers are worthless."

Exactly.

We don't have anything close to an accurate test right now. All these tests are doing is making people think that 95% of people never get symptoms.

The number of phone cancellations and the huge clouds of smoke (from cremated and incinerated bodies) over Wuhan and another Chinese city put the lie to that.

Blogger Gracie April 30, 2020 9:11 AM  

Whistleblower Dr Judy Mikovits, PhD talks about how much of a hoax it's not.

https://youtu.be/X8rbY7ampII

Blogger Crew April 30, 2020 10:23 AM  

Wait. (((Mikovits)))?

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