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Saturday, May 16, 2020

The Syracuse moment approaches

Now the professional wargamers are figuring out that the US military is an overextended, technologically backwards paper tiger:
“In our games, when we fight Russia and China … blue gets its ass handed to it,” RAND senior researcher David Ochmanek said during a panel discussion at the Center for a New American Security think tank last week. “We lose a lot of people. We lose a lot of equipment. We usually fail to achieve our objective of preventing aggression by the adversary,” he added.

Ochmanek said the scenarios often end with the “red” – Russia and China – destroying U.S. fighter jets while still on the runway, sinking U.S. warships, and destroying U.S. military bases and other vital military systems.

“In every case I know of, the F-35 rules the sky when it’s in the sky,” said Robert Work, a former deputy secretary of defense and an expert war game analyst. “But it gets killed on the ground in large numbers.”

U.S. aircraft carriers are also considered more vulnerable to enemy attacks. “Things that sail on the surface of the sea are going to have a hard time,” Ochmanek said.

The Chinese would “attack the American battle network at all levels, relentlessly, and they practice it all the time,” Work said. “On our side, whenever we have an exercise, when the red force really destroys our command and control, we stop the exercise and say, ‘Let’s restart.'”

There is a widespread assumption that paints America as a leading military power who wins handily in any wartime scenario, Ochmanek pointed out.

However, he noted that this isn’t the case, and people are shocked to learn the truth – that all five warfare domains are contested.

“We do not have air superiority over the ballast space at the outset of these wars. We do not have maritime superiority. Our space assets are under attack with kinetic and non-kinetic means. Our command-and-control is under attack by electromagnetic attacks and cyber,” he continued.

The “brain and the nervous system that connects all of these pieces is suppressed, if not shattered,” Ochmanek said.

He also explained that the forward bases U.S. forces operate from are eliminated in war scenarios, taking away critical points of operation; researchers are unsure of what that means for America’s fate.

U.S. bases in Europe also pose a vulnerability due to their scattered proximity and insufficient defense capabilities.

“If we went to war in Europe, there would be one Patriot battery moving, and it would go to Ramstein [in Germany]. And that’s it,” Work noted. “We have 58 Brigade Combat Teams, but we don’t have anything to protect our bases. So what difference does it make?”

The researchers stressed that a military defeat is imminent unless the U.S. employs a major change in strategy.
Even these gloomy predictions are optimistic. The truth is that the F-35 does not rule the skies, as the 5th-Gen Russian fighters are proving to be superior in practice to the USAF's ill-designed superplane. The US empire is failing and will collapse within 13 years, most likely within 10, although the core polity should survive until 2033.

That may still sound shocking now, but it probably won't even strike most intelligent observers as much of a surprise by the time it happens.

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122 Comments:

Blogger Newscaper312 May 16, 2020 8:40 AM  

I think the US experience in WW2 and even WW1 of being out of reach at home on the main land, and all the fighting 'over there' has warped our thinking.
The fact that our assets at rest are targets just does not sink in. That snazzy gigantic phased array radar for your ABM system? Target.
Whiteman AFB where most B-2s are? Target.

Blogger rikjames.313 May 16, 2020 8:42 AM  

I am very confused by the current US Marine commandant throwing away half of his helo lift, all of his armor, most of his tube arty, and all of his bridge/ferry capacity. This after the Corps threw away their fireteam/squad automatic weapons for a slightly heavier rifle in 5.56.

Either the inner above top secret circles see something very odd coming about the next war, or the US has a generation of James Wilkinson generals (during America's brief naming of their national army as the Legion, he was commanding general. He was also a spy and saboteur for Spain)

Blogger Stilicho May 16, 2020 8:47 AM  

Overly centralized command and control is a huge weakness. The F22 rules the skies not the F4 redux, but there arent enough of them. Screw Europe, it WANTS to be a Russian satellite for the most part-it cannot be defended by us.

Blogger Nihil Dicit May 16, 2020 8:48 AM  

The thing I find amazing is how cavalier everybody in the West seems to be about production and procurement. They're clearly banking on quick wars, because they're clearly not producing enough cover wartime losses, even from accidents, and they're building complicated, slow-to-produce precision scalpels for alleyway knife fights.

Blogger Unknown May 16, 2020 8:48 AM  

The most shocking part of this article is: “On our side, whenever we have an exercise, when the red force really destroys our command and control, we stop the exercise and say, ‘Let’s restart.'”

Japan made the same mistake with its wargames in preparation for the battle of Midway. In one such game, American carriers surprised a Japanese fleet, sinking two of their 4 main battle carriers. They did not take the lessons into account for their planning because the umpire overruled the result, allowing the scenario to be replayed.

In the actual battle of Midway, American carriers did in fact surprise the Japanese fleet, severely damaging three carriers. Had the Japanese learned from their own wargames, they may have learned lessons that allowed them to minimize their losses.

Not only that, but recovering from attack was a primary doctrine of the American navy in WW2. Both in terms of casualties and damage control.

Blogger Bucephalus May 16, 2020 8:50 AM  


“The researchers stressed that a military defeat is imminent unless the U.S. employs a major change in strategy”.

What major changes would possibly alter the outcome?

Blogger Section 8A May 16, 2020 9:09 AM  

Yeah but at least they can't call us racists. That has to count for something ... right? Right?

Blogger Stilicho May 16, 2020 9:10 AM  

We are overly reliant on fragile technology and comm systems. The perfumed princes micr-manage all decision making down to the tactical level. Commanders are disuaded from any risk because their careers will be destroyed by any mistake rather it being treated as a learning experience so they blindly follow established procedure and will not exercise initiative. I could go on. It's nothing new and luckily Russia and China make similar mistakes. However these type of errors are compounded by the distance over which one is trying to project force, so Syracuse is an apt example.

I still see the development of the US, RussiaN and China as regional superpowers which cannot be effectively challenged within their own areas. We will probably return to the era of proxy wars in the third world as we all vie for resources influence and allies.

Our submarine forces will increase in importance even faster than the surface fleet declines due to its vulnerabilities to modern missiles.

Blogger Mike E May 16, 2020 9:19 AM  

Implicit to the American psyche is the idea that:
"I'm better than you because I have fancier toys."

Blogger Mr.MantraMan May 16, 2020 9:33 AM  

If Lind is correct then war gaming against China is an error as he always writes nuke powers don't war against one another in direct military engagement. Mr. Lind is also skeptical of the Marines' latest plans, and of course it is interesting to read his opinions. I think it will all be a waste of time I agree with Vox, the American Empire is failing rapidly, and IMO if Hillary would have won we would all be but a puppet to China, Trump just delaying the results for a couple of years.

Blogger Canadian Warlord May 16, 2020 9:36 AM  

Stealth technology isn't a generational leap, especially when your opponent's vacuum tube 1970s passive infrared can still pick it up at 30 km away (original MiG 29 Fulcrum).

And that space advantage, rods from God and whatever else, will not last an hour against a serious opponent. When bags of sand are spread around from higher orbit, nothing in near space will survive.

This vast military machine that has been built, is not for going after large opponents.

Perhaps take a Canadian's perspective on the usefulness of America's historical place in regards to military might? Given that America's been fighting England's wars for a century now (including containing Russia);

England made Canada, BNA act 1867, after going back and forth on North America policy during the 19th century. I chart that as England realizing the "short term" need for colonial soldiers for one century only. After that they knew Canada would disappear into the manifest destiny. But right then in the 1860s, England saw the rising power of Germany, and also it was losing conflicts in Africa with unorganized Boers. The crown had a small army and a big Navy, and every time they go to war they run out of Australians within a year. Canada batted cleanup in three wars, now we aren't useful anymore. We can disintegrate for all the crown cares.

Germany didn't need to codebreak in the Great War Part One, they just needed to know where the Canucks were. That would be the spearhead, always. Lovely, huh? And in Part Two, we have Dieppe. Two divisions of Canadians sent in just to see what would happen, no support. Complete massacre for zero gain, not even intelligence.

Canadians have no illusions. Is America on the program? Longer term? Farther fall? 1913 Federal Reserve Act, who backed all that unlimited debt, who owns it? Have to wonder.

Maybe the crown is done with America?

Blogger Ken Prescott May 16, 2020 9:39 AM  

"What major changes would possibly alter the outcome?"

Ending our role as the guarantor of the Bretton-Woods system.

At that point, the entire world economic order implodes, and China ends up with a 50% orbso deficit in food supply, and Russia gets to deal with a Germanic-run European superstate by itself without any prospect of American aid.

We can end that role on our own, or we can have it ended for us by losing to Russia and/or China.

And we are ending that role. Our military deployment numbers haven't been this low since the 1930s.

Neither Russia nor China can establish a global order that would be able to replace the present system. Even working together in perfect harmony (giggle, snort), they couldn't do it.

In short, "victory" would not actually benefit the victor(s).

And that's leaving aside the Americans wishing to drop deuces into the Chinese and/or Russian punch bowl(s) out of spite.

Blogger urthshu May 16, 2020 9:44 AM  

Funny, I was just looking up Syracuse and wargaming but I was thinking more 10mm Napoleonics than this.

Restarting a game is valid when the conclusion is foregone. You're trying to learn at every step and if you're taking notes and changing what you do to what works, well okay great. If it's cheating not so much.

I'm not incredibly surprised blue team loses a lot though I would like to know the scenarios. Attack is easier than defense and we're obviously not as good at that. We already attack nearly everything in the world.

Blogger Damelon Brinn May 16, 2020 9:50 AM  

The thing I find amazing is how cavalier everybody in the West seems to be about production and procurement.

And it applies to everything. I think a lot of people thought we were just having consumer goods manufactured abroad, which might not be ideal, but at least things were cheap. Now they're realizing it applied to everything from medicine to military equipment, which is just insane. A few years ago, Amazon discovered that high-end server motherboards being manufactured in China by a company that got funding from the CIA had a tiny backdoor chip added to them. Thousands of those motherboards were destined for the Defense Department and other government installations.

I think there's also a carryover myth from WWII that says America can be complacent until we're literally attacked and dragged into a war, and then Rosie the Riveter will kick production into gear and we'll kick ass again. But Rosie is already working in HR, or is a military officer in charge of diversity enforcement. And we don't have the factories to re-purpose anymore, so we'd have to build them first. We still have a lot of native capability, but odds are the people in charge wouldn't be able to tap it because that would require being racist and sexist.

Blogger Robert Coble May 16, 2020 9:52 AM  

No model survives first contact with reality.

Blogger Scuzzaman May 16, 2020 9:59 AM  

Talking with my boy yesterday about the current political situation in relation to COVID-1984 and I noted that the powerful always destroy themselves because they become accustomed to their actions having no directly personal consequences (Taleb’s Skin in the Game) so the always have incentive to double down.

Looks like the same principle applies on the national level?

Blogger John Rockwell May 16, 2020 10:01 AM  

Only thing that may be going for them is Nuclear Weapons and the MAD scenario.

Blogger ZhukovG May 16, 2020 10:03 AM  

@Bucephalus: We could begin by making both our diplomatic and military planning reflect Nationalist rather than Globalist interests.

We have the largest, most powerful military in the world... but it is spread all over the world. Fifty Eight Brigade combat teams aren't much help if you only have one available to fight the Russian First Guards Tank Army.

Thankfully neither Russia or China actually want to fight us. They both know that the American Empire is done for and are just waiting patiently for us to collapse.

Blogger John Rockwell May 16, 2020 10:06 AM  

Stilicho wrote:We are overly reliant on fragile technology and comm systems. The perfumed princes micr-manage all decision making down to the tactical level. Commanders are disuaded from any risk because their careers will be destroyed by any mistake rather it being treated as a learning experience so they blindly follow established procedure and will not exercise initiative. I could go on. It's nothing new and luckily Russia and China make similar mistakes.



Indeed he who is unwilling to take casualties in regards to calculated risk will lose everything.

Its one thing to avoid being reckless but not risking losing at all will result in total defeat.

Victory doesn't always come from always fighting head on and winning at all costs. For example Mao won all China because of the fighting retreat of the Long March.

Experienced soldiers were too valuable for a last stand in his case. Fighting to the last man is foolhardy in many cases.

Blogger Subversive Saint May 16, 2020 10:11 AM  

Yep. Comm is one of the most significant weaknesses.

Blogger Kat May 16, 2020 10:20 AM  

rikjames.313 wrote:I am very confused by the current US Marine commandant throwing away half of his helo lift, all of his armor, most of his tube arty, and all of his bridge/ferry capacity. This after the Corps threw away their fireteam/squad automatic weapons for a slightly heavier rifle in 5.56.

Either the inner above top secret circles see something very odd coming about the next war, or the US has a generation of James Wilkinson generals (during America's brief naming of their national army as the Legion, he was commanding general. He was also a spy and saboteur for Spain)


Oh man, Wictor will bend your ear on this one. There's not a single thread that covers it all, but he mentions it in about half his more recent threads. "Carlos Osweda" on twitter. Not sure he's sane, but he sure is interesting.

Short version in the marines are transitioning to a different MO and getting different weaponry, and Wictor has some interesting theories about those weapons. No idea whether those ideas correspond to reality or not as my weapons experience is limited to backyard plinking with the boys.

Blogger Andrew Jackson May 16, 2020 10:23 AM  

The Rand people are a joke!

Blogger nbfdmd May 16, 2020 10:25 AM  

@6:
Close almost all foreign bases, refocus those troops on Western Hemisphere defense.

Put more emphasis on nuclear subs, and actually lob a couple of MIRVs at some uninhabited areas to show that you're willing to use them.

Economically decouple from China.

This isn't strategy but: close the UN and arrest all foreign diplomats until their countries agree to never attack the US.

Here's the point: you need to show your teeth. Everyone knows that the US immediately backs down if the prospect of total war is on the table.

Blogger Azimus May 16, 2020 10:29 AM  

But we can sure mow down them brown people, we are unmatched in the world for thaf

Blogger Ominous Cowherd May 16, 2020 10:39 AM  

rikjames.313 wrote:Either the inner above top secret circles see something very odd coming about the next war, or the US has a generation of James Wilkinson generals ...
Actual foresight, or treason? Golly, I wonder which is more likely?

We know which is more common. Top mis-leadership never sees what's coming, because it's in their short term best interest not to see.

Blogger pnq87 May 16, 2020 10:42 AM  

I've been listening to the Center for a New American Century discussion video in the link. Part of their recommendation was to give resources to the military branch which comes up with a plan to either A) take out 350 Chinese ships within the first 72 hours or B) take out 2400 Russian armored vehicles in the first 72 hours. In the Chinese version they said say that if the Navy says it can take a number of B-1 bombers loaded with anti-ship missiles and sink the Chinese Navy in 72 hours then allocate the resources for that, take the resources from the Air Force if necessary. Thus the U.S. can get around the Area Denial strategy of the Chinese military and achieve the objective of Sea Supremacy without ever engaging the full defenses of the activated Chinese military.


Now to that I ask, what would be the Chinese reaction to knowing the American plans? They know the U.S. strategic plan is a suprise blitzkreig attack. The Chinese may think that if they wish to survive they need to be the ones in with the first strike. They need to take out Guam and all other forward bases from which the B-1s could be launched before the Americans have a chance to activate their blitz attack.


What I'm saying is that the U.S. is provoking a suprise attack by creating such a plan to bypass the existing Area Denial strategy of the Chinese, thus putting the Chinese in a difficult position. The U.S. is creating its own self-fulfilling prophecy. But yet if the suprise attack does come the American media will no doubt call is a dastardly attack which will go down in infamy.


The arrogance of the U.S. is amazing.


Blogger Unknownsailor May 16, 2020 10:47 AM  

I'm not surprised, American armed forces have always been geared for fighting the last war, and peacetime leadership is notoriously mentally inflexible, and unable to think outside the box. The Chinese constantly attack US assets, civilian and military, through hacking and espionage, and steal everything they can get their hands on. 1991 Gulf War put paid the notion of ever letting US forces build up, so any conflicts will be fought with what is immediately on hand, and the US military no longer has the depth to have overwhelming forces everywhere it goes, and has not for many decades.

I knew in my bones for about the last decade of my Navy career, that if anyone decided to really take it to us, we were in a lot of trouble. USS Cole showed the world how to do it.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd May 16, 2020 11:26 AM  

urthshu wrote:Attack is easier than defense and we're obviously not as good at that. We already attack nearly everything in the world.
Attack is easier than defense? Is that why the attacker usually needs 3:1 advantage?
urthshu wrote:Attack is easier than defense and we're obviously not as good at that. We already attack nearly everything in the world.
American media should denounce the attackers: one doesn't take the enemy's side in war.
Media in America, on the other hand ...

Blogger Azimus May 16, 2020 11:32 AM  

VD:
The US empire is failing and will collapse within 13 years, most likely within 10, although the core polity should survive until 2033


I am sure that this prediction is a good one, but there is a disconnect with the audience in how to interpret it. People have been trained by Hollywood movies and terrible school textbooks to expect some tragic single event, with burning battleships or some inexorably advancing red arrow on a map showing their coming demise. Even the heading of the post, "Syracuse Moment" points to a single cataclysmic event where everything changes forever - and to be fair those moments have happened - Waterloo, the collapse of the Soviet Union.

I was looking at Mode for age by race in the US - I can't account for the stats, but the claim was for native americans the Mode was 26, for Asians 29, for Blacks 27, for Latinos 11, and for Whites it was 58. And the stat was from 2013 so add 7 years.

Whites are 80% of the population 65 and over (which is why those a-holes say whites take more "welfare" than anybody else - Medicaid is the biggest element of welfare by far). They did not leave enough children behind to continue their way of life - or rather, they didn't have kids AND threw open the store to parasites. This is only a "race thing" insofar as it describes the dominant time-preferences of the different groups, and even within the whites the time preferences of the young are radically different than the preceding generations.

This points to the collapse of the current system, but it won't be a cataclysmic one. In my opinion, in 2033 don't look for the flags to change. The Constitution will still be in its place of veneration at the National Archives, though roundly ignored. The President will still be sworn in though probably not with a Bible. He will still say "God bless America" in his speeches though it might be in another language. All the feel-good visual tropes will still be in place, but the difference will be under the surface in the laws, taxes, appropriations. In how the infrastructure works. In how much food there is to eat, and how healthy it is. In what you are allowed to say. I could be wrong, but I don't think anything will happen above the table when we see the final destruction of the United States. You will just wake up one day and realize that its gone, and been gone for some time.

Blogger Doktor Jeep May 16, 2020 12:04 PM  

Fortunately the Russians are not interested in war, as they killed off their globalists -Trotskyists - a long time ago.
The Chinese have it in mind to get what they want cheaply. We're the ones who drop a million dollar missile on a ten dollar tent and call it superiority. It's much cheaper to buy a politician. And that they have done.
The collapse of the USA will do more to conserve Americans than the same old grind. Notably Rome fell, but the Romans did not get replaced, displaced, or genocided. If the USA collapses before the "browning" then there will still be Americans practicing western civilization or some attempt at it.

Blogger FUBARwest May 16, 2020 12:05 PM  

"On our side, whenever we have an exercise, when the red force really destroys our command and control, we stop the exercise and say, ‘Let’s restart.”

Why would you ever do this?

Blogger justaguy May 16, 2020 12:10 PM  

Rand is one of those government think tanks that gives you whatever answer you want. Just remember the more complicated the model, the easier it is to place assumptions and rules to get whatever results needed. We may not be the force we were when the Cold War was won, much like currencies, debt and too many other things-- instead of some "real-value" measurement, that is impossible to get-- we have a relative measurement against other countries. the US is judged stronger than others in many many ways-- currency, economy, innovation, debt load etc.== including military.

We never were going to wipe out easily our enemies-- only third world idiots. China, Russia and others were always hard and something we do not want to do.

BTW, the most realistic cold war era models had horrendous losses for the US too.

Blogger railroadspike25 May 16, 2020 12:24 PM  

We have POZ, tho. It's our real ultimate weapon.

Blogger TMLutas May 16, 2020 12:30 PM  

The made in China 2025 plan is a database of stuff the PRC uses and the subset of stuff that they don't make. Then they back all that with a government industrial policy to drive that subset down to zero.

The database itself is something that anyone can make for any country. There's nothing sacred about government being the driving force to set up industrial capacity. I would suspect that our production vulnerabilities are going to be leading to the creation of such databases all over the developed world and that some people with a national security bent will be taking advantage of the tools and capabilities developed.

Blogger glueballs May 16, 2020 12:46 PM  

@21. Kat

Short version in the marines are transitioning to a different MO and getting different weaponry, and Wictor has some interesting theories about those weapons.

With active protection systems mounted, your vehicle doesn’t need to weigh 70 tons. You need just enough armor to protect against 14mm and splinters combined with a small bore autocannon or rockets for eliminating 20-40mm round carriers. They’ll store our Abrams in the dessert/Ft. Hood “just in case” but the Marines have no use for a vulnerable 70 ton beast.

The quality of our tip of the spear has been declining, this said, we still have leaders in the field who take initiative and the Chinese do not and it’s highly unlikely the commies will be able to develop local initiative anytime soon. The Russians have good kit, leaders and warriors but almost no means of projecting force beyond their own borders at scale.

The US can defend itself against foreign invasion for fifty more years just on the basis of our nukes and civilian firearms ownership. Internal subversion will invariably destroy the empire, for example, by failing to renew our infrastructure. Cough.

Blogger Zastavnik Džemo May 16, 2020 12:59 PM  

The one really big question in all this is: are nuclear weapons really as capable as advertized. Because if they are not...

Blogger Geir Balderson May 16, 2020 1:06 PM  

I have often thought that America is no longer great due to our stupid goal of 'diversity' above all. Get those diverse people in those top jobs because of their pigmentation and gender. It doesn't matter if they are the best and brightest for the mission. I suspect that is the rot that has made the USA a paper eagle.

Look at how NASA does things now. Not a white guy in sight.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/meet-the-people-behind-nasas-perseverance-rover

America is so foolish.

Blogger RedJack May 16, 2020 1:32 PM  

Carriers are targets.

The Navy struggles to stay out of the way of of super tankers, let alone do much else. The marines are changing into some sort of extra light infrantry, which will get chewed up in a major engagement. The Army has mainly old equipment well past the end of its working life. Air Force? Well they sure spend a lot but to be honest the logistical chain on even drones is pretty prime for disruption

Not saying the US military is a paper tiger, but it reminds me more and more of the old USSR military. Falling apart, under paid, under trained, and filled with people who don't know what to do. The recent vets I have worked with have mostly been Bifs and Karens.

Blogger Avalanche May 16, 2020 1:33 PM  

@13 "Restarting a game is valid when the conclusion is foregone. You're trying to learn at every step and if you're taking notes and changing what you do to what works"

Old old Navy tale, passed down: one sharp mid-level officer war-gamming against his seniors... He kept 'not doing what they expected' and beating the pants off 'em. So, they DID restart -- ann told the repeated 'winner' he was no longer ALLOWED to do what his "official" opponents weren't expecting and kept losing to.

Come on, this is the MILITARY we're thinking of! Never upset a senior officer, never don't color inside the lines! (Oh, do I sound cynical? Hmmmm, must be my wee bit of experience in the Navy....)

Foregone conclusion?!?! They never even saw it coming! So they disallowed it!!

Blogger Avalanche May 16, 2020 1:40 PM  

@26 "What I'm saying is that the U.S. is provoking a surprise attack by creating such a plan to bypass..."

Ever read up on Pearl Harbor? If you want or need to start a war (or enter one), our enemies in control in the U.S can certainly 'create a need' in a chosen enemy (ha. Freudian word choice) to sneak-attack first...

Blogger rikjames.313 May 16, 2020 1:43 PM  

Famously, a retired Marine general played the part of Iran in a large command post wargame. He won very decisively. They restarted the game and prevented him from doing anything similar the second time. Then the civilian DoD people leaked how he did it.

Blogger rognuald May 16, 2020 1:58 PM  

National Defense Strategy Commission Report, 2018:

https://taskandpurpose.com/bulletpoints/us-military-defeat-war-china-russia

Blogger Unknown May 16, 2020 2:06 PM  

Stilicho wrote:We are overly reliant on fragile technology and comm systems.

These days they call that, "network-centric," warfare. The goal is to essentially implement a full-up cell network on the battlefield.

It is kind of ironic because this kind of command centralization is what we used to make fun of the Eastern Bloc for.

With regard to stealth, it is hardly the magic cloak sold by the media. It works against radars that operate in a particular RF/microwave frequency range. Even that is assuming all the TLC has been done to Lockheed's spec prior to battle.

I've worked in defense electronics for almost 2 decades, so I'll add some bonus supply chain comments.

The people running the supply chain are all empty-headed MBAs and Karens. Karens love to have useless meetings where they spend 50% of the time talking about how they dropped Junior on his head at last weekend's BBQ and now he talks funny. I can't figure out how they landed these sinecures because none of them are attractive enough to sleep with.

Thus, I'm hearing lots of whispers around the factory about how we, a company that limits engineering positions to actual US citizens, are having trouble getting bits and pieces from China.

I'm not sure that matters all that much at this late date, because on any given afternoon in the factory I will hear far more conversations in Spanish, Turkish, Thai, Laotian, Chinese, and Ebonics than correct English. My favorite conversations are when the Basketball Americans attempt to communicate with the ESL Americans.

What country is this again?

Blogger NewTunesForOldLogos May 16, 2020 2:10 PM  

Once a near-peer enemy decides war with the US is imminent, they’ll make a plan to simultaneously strike every aircraft carrier with supersonic missiles, and detonate a couple HEMP bombs over the US, and possibly Europe. Then we won’t have fancier toys any more.

Blogger z May 16, 2020 2:17 PM  

I've wondered for a while if the "pivot to Asia" stuff Hillary was so high on as Secretary of State was the intel agencies, more aggressive generals, and neo-con "security experts" wanting to confront Russia and China militarily before it was "too late" and we could no longer defeat them on their turf. This article leads me to believe that might have been the case. This is all the more reason to bring as much manufacturing home as possible.
One gets the feeling that the neo-libs and neo-cons wanted to have some sort of reckoning with the Russians and Chinese where we could have destroyed their militaries and regime-changed them (Bill Kristol even tweeted once that regime change in China should have been a 21st century goal for America), and perhaps occupied them with bases, not allowing them to build ICBM's, scuttling their nukes, and keeping them militarily down. Then I assume we would flood them with refugees from Africa because of Climate Change and brought them into the modern tower of Babel-world-government we have been seemingly seeking to impose. I hope the Chinese, Russian, Indian, Indonesian, and Middle Eastern countries' leadership watch our TV commercials here. That's the world they wish to force on everybody. I think they will resist if informed.

BTW--Lefty news anchors in particular seem oblivious that the US could ever be defeated in battle for long anywhere in my opinion. They think life is like an action movie apparently.

Blogger Jeff May 16, 2020 2:57 PM  

I don't know if the US is collapsing as much as what we're seeing is more of a return to normalcy after the world wars + disastrous communist and socialist governments destroyed the global order, leaving us as the sole super-power. We might learn valuable lessons about what to expect in the future by examining our pre-WW 1, pre-superpower status.

Blogger liberranter May 16, 2020 3:13 PM  

The U.S. military is not and never has been designed to actually fight another Second Generation war in the modern era. Indeed, it's not even suitable to keep Fourth Generation opponents under control, as evidenced by every conflict fought since the Korean Conflict.

The U.S. military is essentially a codpiece worn by a nation resting on its (ill-gotten) laurels of World War II, a conflict in which it played far less of a decisive role than it has deceived itself into thinking it played. (The Red Army, not the U.S. Army, enabled victory in Europe. In the Pacific, an arrogant, self-deceived Japanese Empire, blinded by its own hubris to its own military's insurmountable and fatal shortcomings, would have eventually run itself aground even without a massive U.S. naval response). For the last 75 years it has squandered its vast resources on military toys of hopeless impracticality and built doctrine around a fantasy world in which genuine national defense priorities were ignored and glorious campaigns of imperial conquest emphasized, campaigns for which the American people had no stomach and the American military no means to sustain. Now it's all coming to a head and the house of cards is approaching inevitable collapse.

Something else to consider, far more important than the ridiculous campaign to prop up a failed global empire: how will the military fare in a domestic "counterinsurgency" campaign (a.k.a. imposing martial law)? We know that they are hopeless at fighting 4GW on foreign soil. Is there any reason to suspect they would fare any better at home, especially given the very strong probability of mutiny among large numbers of the troops?

Blogger urthshu May 16, 2020 3:22 PM  

>>>Attack is easier than defense? Is that why the attacker usually needs 3:1 advantage?

In a wargame, yes. A tabletop is not real life.

>>>Foregone conclusion?!?! They never even saw it coming! So they disallowed it!!

Which is cheating. I agree.

Blogger Akulkis May 16, 2020 3:38 PM  

>> "On our side, whenever we have an exercise, when the red force really destroys our command and control, we stop the exercise and say, ‘Let’s restart.”

> Why would you ever do this?

It's an evaluation that Blue side screwed up royally.

The goal is to train blue-force commanders to PREVENT the enemy's actions which took the situation to that point.

Of course, if the unthinkable happens, we end up with a cadre of most senior leaders who haven't fought a wargame from a disadvantaged position.

It's rather different from the Japanese Midway wargame in which the results were ruled impossible because "there's no way possible that the American carriers will leave Pearl Harbor and slip out unobserved because it's before our subs assigned to picket line duty get into position" (which, coincidentally, is also EXACTLY how the Jap carrier fleet got surprised in the real battle, too.)

If that wargame were being run by Americans, the referees would tell the blue team "well, now you know that you need to come up with a new plan that compensates for the possibility that your picket line might not pick up the enemy carriers, so, either modify your plan or come up with a new one, and we'll start over."

The point of starting over is to avoid wasting time fighting out what the referees have already determined to be a catastrophic loss at the operational level or higher.

For the most part, these sorts of things ARE allowed to be played out rather more fully at the tactical level, and micro-tactical level, because lower level leaders need practice at salvaging situations that occur at their level (generally battalion and below).

The big question is this -- for all of these Red Force wins, how often are changes being made in the strategic-level plans to prevent opportunities for OPFOR to win by those methods in real life?

Blogger Akulkis May 16, 2020 3:45 PM  

>> Old old Navy tale, passed down: one sharp mid-level officer war-gamming against his seniors... He kept 'not doing what they expected' and beating the pants off 'em. So, they DID restart -- ann told the repeated 'winner' he was no longer ALLOWED to do what his "official" opponents weren't expecting and kept losing to.

This is much more true in Navy circles than in Army circles. In the Navy, if you beat higher-ranking officers at a wargame, you're gonna get hammered on your OER for embarrassing them.

In the Army, if you repeatedly beat your higher-ranking officers at a wargame, you're going to be praised, and get an OER with those most-coveted of all words, "Promote ahead of peers."

Blogger glueballs May 16, 2020 4:08 PM  

43. Unknown

I can't figure out how they landed these sinecures because none of them are attractive enough to sleep with

conversations in Spanish, Turkish, Thai, Laotian, Chinese, and Ebonics than correct English

How is this not deliberate sabotage by industry-wide cadre? Some is mandated by government directorate. Once your chief customer is infiltrated and cowed you have no choice but to follow. Yet I fail to see how so many of these hires could result from any phenomenon other than sabotage. They perform poorly on the job. The foreign customers of your company demand their co-ethnics who speak the language participate at all levels so the countries can steal the IP and weaken the company. As for the uggos, I would bet a high proportion of them are Mormon women who were hired through the Mormon beehive collective. At least that’s how it was in the early 90’s when I worked in the defense establishment as an engineer.

What country is this again?

It's just a large commodities market. We're all interchangeable FBU's, fungible billing units. The notion of citizenship, well except for "global citizens," is laughable.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash May 16, 2020 4:24 PM  

Akulkis wrote:This is much more true in Navy circles than in Army circles. In the Navy, if you beat higher-ranking officers at a wargame, you're gonna get hammered on your OER for embarrassing them.
That must be recent. When my son was an E5 avionics tech deployed on , he had a weekly wargame session with the Admiral, the Deputy CAG, the miniboss (an O2) and one of the ordnance techs. Playing Italy, he teamed up with the miniboss, playing Israel, and the soundly defeated the Admiral as Britain, the DCAG as France and the Ordinance tech as the US, trapping and sinking 2 US fleets in the Med, bottling up the French fleet in harbor, and taking out every British warship bigger than a cruiser.
They were congratulated and no repercussions were imposed.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine May 16, 2020 4:25 PM  

"People have been trained by Hollywood movies and terrible school textbooks to expect some tragic single event, with burning battleships or some inexorably advancing red arrow on a map showing their coming demise. Even the heading of the post, "Syracuse Moment" points to a single cataclysmic event where everything changes forever - and to be fair those moments have happened - Waterloo, the collapse of the Soviet Union."

This. It'll be out with a whimper rather than a roar.

"The people running the supply chain are all empty-headed MBAs and Karens"

And this.

People talk about MAD doctrine and nuclear deterrent, but the result of that has always been that sane people would smuggle in or send teams to homebrew nukes on American soil. Our ridiculous immigration stances makes this almost effortless too.

All it would take is a handful of nukes airburst for EMP to totally screw us in a war scenario. Whoever did it probably wouldn't even bother with the continental USA. What would happen is that by the time central command could see again we wouldn't have any holdings outside of the continental USA, and would never be able to develop them again.

It'd be like those packing bubbles that kids like to pop. We push someone capable of the above too far finally, then there's a little snapping sound and suddenly we wake up to find that our baby was as easy to take candy from as any other.

Blogger Beloved May 16, 2020 4:30 PM  

Not provoking a war with Russia or China. That's a major change in strategy.

Blogger Brett baker May 16, 2020 4:34 PM  

A lot of the "right" defense spending.

Blogger plishman May 16, 2020 4:50 PM  

The Queen is old and weak. In such circumstances wormtongues multiply. It's been as bad here as there. I'd wait and give William and Kate a chance. And remember that it is the Cross which unites the West - nothing else. That is why the Church is the focus of all the enemy's anger.

Blogger One Deplorable DT May 16, 2020 4:51 PM  

Ah yes...the models. What do they teach us? Well, the Earth is warming and will be uninhabitable by 2000...2010...uh, 2020...no wait I meant 2030...unless you give up your cars, pay a lot more in taxes, and eat the bugs.

In two (more) weeks COVID will kill millions...MILLIONS...if you don't close your businesses, stay at home, and in Virginia give up your guns.

And Russia and China will utterly demolish the U.S. military if the DoD doesn't get its yearly budget increase. DEMOLISH. It will be like we're throwing stones against UFOs Mr. Senator. Just read the RAND report, it's all there.

Blogger One Deplorable DT May 16, 2020 4:54 PM  

The truth is that the F-35 does not rule the skies, as the 5th-Gen Russian fighters are proving to be superior in practice to the USAF's ill-designed superplane.

The Su-57? All eleven of them???

And in what practice? The thing hasn't seen any real combat yet. So what war games have they participated in that showed the Su-57 to be capable against F-22s, F-35s, or hell, even F-15s with pilots who get about 10x as many hours in the air as Russians do? And by war games I mean physical games with actual pilots from around the globe. Not video games. Does Russia even have a training exercise equivalent in scale and scope to the annual Red Flag exercises? Have they ever had one since the fall of the Soviet Union?

The US empire is failing and will collapse within 13 years, most likely within 10, although the core polity should survive until 2033.

That very well may be. But the reasons have nothing to do with our military or theirs, and everything to do with mass migration and economics. Our military failure is not that we are unprepared for a major war. Our military failure is that we will not deploy troops to our southern border because that's racist.

Blogger Newscaper312 May 16, 2020 4:57 PM  

@52 Snidely,
I assume hes talking more about on the clock, highly visible simulations that are part of the day job, not after hours fun.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash May 16, 2020 5:18 PM  

You're probably right @Newscaper.

When you make this sort of prediction a decade or two out, it always comes with the unspoken caveat "within a couple of years". It's weird just how on-target the prediction of 2033 is proving to be.

Blogger Balkan Yankee May 16, 2020 5:56 PM  

Once upon a time, I participated in a tabletop wargame exercise involving the command element of the 1st Marine Amphibious Force (MAF). I was a lowly sergeant who got to move unit designators around the map. The scenario was a Soviet invasion of Iran.

1st MAF hit the beach and quickly pushed inland to attack the main Soviet force in a meeting engagement, but under conditions of temporary air superiority, a Soviet airmobile unit landed behind 1st MAF, captured a mountain pass and cut off 1st MAF's only line of supply and retreat.

At the same time, a Soviet Armored Corps slammed head-on into 1st MAF, trapping it against the mountains to the rear, leaving it with no room to maneuver and no way out. Within a turn or two, the only thing left of 1st MAF was a couple of recon teams and an 81 mm mortar unit.

The MAF commander first tried to lawyer his way out of the trap, but was overruled. After the carnage was complete, he resurrected 1st MAF and ordered the Soviet force into full retreat so his command element could gain valuable experience, so he said. Two-star generals get to do things like that.

The hell of it is, the genius who wrecked him was a staff sergeant who knew the rule book better than the general and his staff. C'est la guerre.

Blogger Ken Prescott May 16, 2020 5:59 PM  

Regarding the war games prognosticating either doom and gloom or gloom and doom . . .

Has anyone read up on the Naval War College war games of the 1922-1934 period?

Far more often than not, Orange won. Bigly.

The US Navy completely rewrote the Orange Plan from the original "Through Ticket to Manila" (relieve Bataan before the US Army Far East had to surrender) to "The Royal Road" (which amounted to the slow blade penetrating the shield, i.e., the US Navy proceeding through the Mandates, seizing advance bases to support the Fleet, and the endgame being the US Navy imposing a blockade on Japan from bases in the Marianas).

About the only thing that wasn't on the table during that period was unrestricted submarine warfare--because we assumed the British would be neutral and we didn't want to bring them in on Japan's side by sinking British merchant ships.

I suspect that the issues being raised are being addressed. Quietly.

Because war plans aren't bandied about publicly.

Blogger FrankNorman May 16, 2020 6:00 PM  

My take on the hardware question: Russia vs the USA is in one respect Klingons vs Ferengi.
Russian airplanes are rugged, durable, and cheap to maintain. They didn't have unlimited resources, so they tried to get the most "bang for the buck".
America? The point of the F-35 isn't to win wars, it's to make as much of a profit as possible for the military-industrial complex. They want the most buck for the bang.

Of course there's also the problem of all the idiots who like to pretend that there's already a one-world government and that all armed conflicts are just "policing actions".

Blogger Silly but True May 16, 2020 6:33 PM  

Bullshit. The US nuclear arsenal is guided by an unparalleled airgapped internal hybrid network of secure solid state drives with a decreasingly amount the last four years of components relying on effectively externally unhackable 8” floppy drives.

Any country that can be blamed for it ir its citizens detonating a HEMP bomb over the US will quickly find out how peerless the US remains.

Blogger Dan in Georgia May 16, 2020 6:36 PM  

Kat wrote:Oh man, Wictor will bend your ear on this one. There's not a single thread that covers it all, but he mentions it in about half his more recent threads. "Carlos Osweda" on twitter. Not sure he's sane, but he sure is interesting.

Wictor is where I first heard of the Sunni Arabs alliance with Israel. One problem I have with him is he believed or at least thought it was plausible that Bashar al Assad had used poison gas. He's a big Israel supporter and as such is not a fan of Russia or Iran. Never heard of Rods from God before reading him (mostly watching him before YouTube nuked his channel.

Wictor was nearly killed by and IRA bomb and has had PTSD for 40 years or so. Yes, he is definitely out there mentally, but seems to be quite intelligent.

Blogger jarheadljh May 16, 2020 7:00 PM  

There's a great description of a moment in this book where the author screws over an entire wargame designed to demonstrate the superiority of electronic warfare using nothing more than a heavy barreled bolt action rifle, and the best part is that his sniper platoon was literally forgotten about in the planning because they weren't considered important. Then they pinned down an entire opfor and stopped an advance in it's tracks.

Shooter: The Autobiography of the Top-Ranked Marine Sniper
https://www.amazon.com/Shooter-Autobiography-Top-Ranked-Marine-Sniper/dp/0312939175

Then this guy went on to change US Marine scout/sniper doctrine to now include mobile sniper operations where official doctrine always had them stationary. And the entire book is him dealing with idiot officers and still getting the job done in spite of them, so really pretty typical of a Marine Corps invasion. See also "Generation Kill".

The lesson is that the officers are always idiots. Always. They always plan for the last war and always cheat to win to advance their own careers, and then when it actually matters, they don't and swiftly get pushed aside and the job gets done. Plus anything from RAND, eh, no.

Blogger One Deplorable DT May 16, 2020 7:12 PM  

@43 - These days they call that, "network-centric," warfare. The goal is to essentially implement a full-up cell network on the battlefield.

It's because this yields tremendous advantages. It's not a liability so long as you also train as if the comms have been shut down. I don't know what the Army and Navy do, but the USAF regularly puts pilots in air exercises under rules which compromise or eliminate key advantages. They do this to make sure pilots do not become dependent on those advantages. Any adversary who believes a Raptor or Lightening pilot would be unable to fight if stealth was compromised will be in for a very rude awakening.

I would also be curious to know...if someone without the right clearance could know...just how fragile these comm systems are today. A properly designed frequency hopper is going to get around any form of jamming because it quickly becomes impossible to cover all the frequencies which might be used to transmit for a fraction of a second.

With regard to stealth, it is hardly the magic cloak sold by the media. It works against radars that operate in a particular RF/microwave frequency range. Even that is assuming all the TLC has been done to Lockheed's spec prior to battle.

No, it's not a magic cloak. But there are no frequencies which restore more than a small amount of the lost radar range. Acquiring, tracking, and leading a missile to a flying target is a lot more difficult than people assume. So you chose a frequency that gives you a few miles range instead of near 0 with an approaching stealth aircraft. What is that aircraft's stand off range for air to ground? If it has to enter your detection range to release its weapon, how long does it have to stay there, and how long does it take your system to actually lock on target and close the distance with a missile?

Distances and altitudes are huge. At one pair you might have a near 100% chance of intercept (Serbia with the F-117's bomb bay doors open). At another pair the plane is off radar before the missile can close half the distance. With the Raptor at least, at some pairs you can't hit it as long as the pilot is awake even if he's broadcasting his position and laughing at you over the radio.

The people running the supply chain are all empty-headed MBAs and Karens.

This...this right here scares me a hell of a lot more than stronk Russian or Chinese missiles. I won't argue the risks here. They are very real. If coronachan doesn't make the U.S. rethink all supply chains from top to bottom then we are a country of idiots and we deserve to lose our standing in the world.

I'm not sure that matters all that much at this late date, because on any given afternoon in the factory I will hear far more conversations in Spanish, Turkish, Thai, Laotian, Chinese, and Ebonics than correct English. My favorite conversations are when the Basketball Americans attempt to communicate with the ESL Americans.

And this. What difference does it make if we could sink China's navy or if they could sink ours if we lose the country to mass immigration? We don't need a hot war to collapse. We're collapsing at the borders right now.

Blogger Paul M May 16, 2020 7:14 PM  

Newscaper312 wrote:That snazzy gigantic phased array radar for your ABM system? Target. Whiteman AFB where most B-2s are? Target.
If it comes to a real war with the USA, this will be the first thing to be bombed.

https://goo.gl/maps/afhYQ4YsszxSJZDc6

Blogger Snidely Whiplash May 16, 2020 7:28 PM  

One Deplorable DT wrote:A properly designed frequency hopper is going to get around any form of jamming because it quickly becomes impossible to cover all the frequencies which might be used to transmit for a fraction of a second.
Why would you have to match trequency when you could simply cover ALL of them. Especially with encrypted digital comms, any disruption is complete disruption.

Blogger cyrus83 May 16, 2020 7:44 PM  

The bigger concern at the moment should be that the entire world now knows half of Americans are too frightened to leave their homes because the media and the politicians are broadcasting fear p##n over a virus. Why expend tons of resources and manpower to destroy America when all it takes is a fear campaign with slick graphics to do the job?

At this point all China, Russia, or any other actor has to do is keep paying off politicians, media, and academics to do a new version of virus theater every winter and watch the country implode from a distance.

Blogger jarheadljh May 16, 2020 7:47 PM  

If the US ends up in a war with an actual enemy like China or Russia, I have no doubt it will go badly for us at first, it always does, but whatever your appraisal of this sort of information, there is no good reason for it to be put to the test. I firmly believe that our current administration believes that. I also firmly believe that not a single country in the scenarios being discussed is actually in a position to go to real war.

Neither China or Russia has the logistical ability to invade the continental US. Similarly, the US military is stretched so thin that there is no way to even begin to have the ability to invade either of them. Best any of the three can really do is throw rocks from orbit at the others. China will b e very stern, Trump will push right to the line, and then a deal will hammered out.

And more than likely Don Jr. will be his father's successor, and from the looks of things carrying out his dad's plan.

Blogger Unknownsailor May 16, 2020 7:57 PM  

I was in a Prowler (EA-6B) squadron when the F-22 first hit operation squadron status. The Weapon School at Nellis AFB requested Navy EW support in 2005 to see how well their fancy new Low Probability of Intercept radar on the F-22 would work against a dedicated EW threat.

As I was told, Prowlers pinned their ears back.

As for the logistics chain stateside, there is a lot of DoD civilian dead weight, and a lot of it is concentrated in a few gigantic warehouses that would be easy to knock offline. Tracy, CA has a big one, this is where most Naval logistics support on the West coast originates. DoD supply system was built up to massive scale to support the large standing military we had in the late 80s, and so far as I could tell, as an end user of same (logistics was my job field), it had not been put on a program of leaning out and getting more agile. It is easy to know who has what at any given point in time, but there were always odd holes showing up, stuff would go out of stock and I'd have to wait for the depots to cut contracts to vendors to get my requisitions filled. I won't even get into how shallow the parts support for certain aircraft can get. Prowler canopies were tracked like gold, as were the radome, because no one made them any more. The intermediate maintenance activity at the Prowler home air station took to rebuilding canopies themselves because no one made them.

Blogger Akulkis May 16, 2020 8:07 PM  

>> >>>Attack is easier than defense? Is that why the attacker usually needs 3:1 advantage?

> In a wargame, yes. A tabletop is not real life.

Double-face-palm.

Where do you think those combat odds tables came from?

I've participated in many MILES (military laser-tag) exercises, and the typical
3:1 odds needed to attack in relatively open ground
6:1 odds for lightly built-up areas
10:1 odds for urban areas

are pretty close to factual.


I've seen 4 guys with rifles make a real mess of infantry platoons in MOUT environments -- inflicting 20~25 casualties against a force of ~30 in exchange for themselves.

Blogger Crew May 16, 2020 8:12 PM  

At this point all China, Russia, or any other actor has to do is keep paying off politicians, media, and academics to do a new version of virus theater every winter and watch the country implode from a distance.

The real reason for the current virus theater is to drive up unemployment so Trump cannot be re-elected.

After November, one way or another, the virus will be forgotten.

Blogger Dan in Georgia May 16, 2020 8:13 PM  

Azure Amaranthine wrote:

People talk about MAD doctrine and nuclear deterrent, but the result of that has always been that sane people would smuggle in or send teams to homebrew nukes on American soil. Our ridiculous immigration stances makes this almost effortless too.


Since the Test-ban treaty, who knows if any of our nukes still work? We haven't tested on in over 40 years. Is there something they're not telling us?

Blogger Akulkis May 16, 2020 8:14 PM  

> Playing Italy, he teamed up with the miniboss, playing Israel, and the soundly defeated the Admiral as Britain, the DCAG as France and the Ordinance tech as the US, trapping and sinking 2 US fleets in the Med, bottling up the French fleet in harbor, and taking out every British warship bigger than a cruiser.
> They were congratulated and no repercussions were imposed.

Not official exercises. Just playing "for fun" with no O/C's (Observer/Controllers) or other official evaluators present and afterwards doing a written evaluation of everything they see happen.

Blogger eclecticmn May 16, 2020 8:23 PM  

@67. One Deplorable DTMay 16, 2020 7:12 PM
@43 - These days they call that, "network-centric," warfare. The goal is to essentially implement a full-up cell network on the battlefield.

It's because this yields tremendous advantages. It's not a liability so long as you also train as if the comms have been shut down. I don't know what the Army and Navy do, but the USAF regularly puts pilots in air exercises under rules which compromise or eliminate key advantages. They do this to make sure pilots do not become dependent on those advantages. Any adversary who believes a Raptor or Lightening pilot would be unable to fight if stealth was compromised will be in for a very rude awakening.


30 years ago I got a tour through a SAC B-52. There was a nipple in the ceiling. I asked what that was and was told it was where the navigator put his sextant. WTF? They told me they assumed all the navigation satellites would be fried.

Blogger Akulkis May 16, 2020 8:24 PM  

"Wictor is where I first heard of the Sunni Arabs alliance with Israel."

The House of Saud is Jewish.

Blogger eclecticmn May 16, 2020 8:41 PM  

The war gamed attack on Iran that the US lost was Millennium Challenge 2002.
https://youtu.be/g9b1DG86a4k

There is a good but dated book worth reading. Women in the Military: Flirting With Disaster Hardcover – December 1, 1997 by Brian Mitchell. There is another book said to be better I did not read. Co-Ed Combat: The New Evidence That Women Shouldn't Fight The Nation's Wars" by Kingsley Browne.

Blogger eclecticmn May 16, 2020 8:50 PM  

Back on an old political forum there was a long time poster submariner who claimed that during exercises his sub was able to penetrate a carrier group and launch a flare onto its deck. Then there is the Swedish Stirling engine sub that popped up next to a US carrier.

Blogger One Deplorable DT May 16, 2020 8:57 PM  

@69 - Why would you have to match trequency when you could simply cover ALL of them.

Because ...it quickly becomes impossible to cover all the frequencies which might be used to transmit for a fraction of a second.

I don't know that all the modern radios in the field are resistant to jamming. Which is why I openly wondered how fragile our systems are. But I do know that it's not impossible to design a jam-proof radio for communications today. There comes a point where the range of frequencies the radios can jump to simply exceeds the range you can flood with sufficient power and range to block all transmission.

Especially with encrypted digital comms, any disruption is complete disruption.

It's the opposite. Digital packet systems...properly designed...use ECC for packet recovery and also retransmit if needed. This is nothing new or revolutionary.

Again, I'm not saying these are the capabilities in field radios right now. I don't know what is in the field right now. I'm saying the tech is there. If the U.S. military is putting everything to use that's available in the commercial sphere...and then some...then comms are not fragile.

Blogger eclecticmn May 16, 2020 9:01 PM  

@70. cyrus83May 16, 2020 7:44 PM
The bigger concern at the moment should be that the entire world now knows half of Americans are too frightened to leave their homes because the media and the politicians are broadcasting fear p##n over a virus.


Don't forget that two punks with pressure cooker bombs shut down the city of Boston. I imagine that Iran has competent sleeper cells in the US to retaliate if the the US attacks Iran. I would if I were them. Imagine what they could do to key US infrastructure points.

Blogger Ransom Smith May 16, 2020 10:38 PM  

Since the Test-ban treaty, who knows if any of our nukes still work? We haven't tested on in over 40 years. Is there something they're not telling us?
Some people theorize that nukes don't even exist.
Which is a fun rabbit hole to travel down if you consider it. And it helps reshape the history of the later 20th century if true.

Blogger cyrus83 May 16, 2020 10:44 PM  

@74

I have no doubt of the intended political effect of the virus coverage and shutdowns, not that I think it will work. But there are numerous people in my local circle scared to death to venture outdoors, and others who have more faith in a piece of cloth and a talking head on TV they never heard of 2 months ago than they ever had in Christ, and all appeals to reason with these fail.

That's a weakness that will be exploited again, even if the domestic political clown show packs up this production for good and memory holes it after November.

Blogger MaskettaMan May 16, 2020 10:50 PM  

Maybe it's a dumb question, but why should we be concerned that we're losing at conventional warfare when we have a nuclear arsenal?

China bombs our aircraft carriers, the whole world gets blown up by nukes. Why concern ourselves with anything but maintaining an easily deployable arsenal of WMD's?

Blogger Unknownsailor May 16, 2020 10:56 PM  

eclecticmn wrote: @70. cyrus83May 16, 2020 7:44 PM

The bigger concern at the moment should be that the entire world now knows half of Americans are too frightened to leave their homes because the media and the politicians are broadcasting fear p##n over a virus.


Don't forget that two punks with pressure cooker bombs shut down the city of Boston. I imagine that Iran has competent sleeper cells in the US to retaliate if the the US attacks Iran. I would if I were them. Imagine what they could do to key US infrastructure points.


One poorly trained ex-police officer on a rampage brought Los Angeles to a stand still (Dorner). Two men shooting a Bushmaster out of the trunk of their car brought the Atlantic Seaboard to a quivering standstill.

12 men with rifles brought Mumbai, India to a stand still, and killed and/or wounded hundreds.

Andrez Brevik killed dozens. Canada just experienced a one man crime spree that saw four Mounties killed, along with almost 2 dozen others.

Never under estimate what a determined small group or solo actor can accomplish. Frankly, I am amazed the Islamic terrorists haven't tried to pull off a Mumbai type swarm attack here.

Blogger glueballs May 17, 2020 12:11 AM  

Why would you have to match trequency when you could simply cover ALL of them. Especially with encrypted digital comms, any disruption is complete disruption.

Go ahead and cover all the frequencies. Broadband noise jamming blanks out all your radars and comms too. Left to his own devices, your interceptor pilot relies on his aircraft’s dinky radar to search large volumes of sky because infrared cannot detect reliably at distance. Our B-2 and F-22 in stealth mode simply fly around your interceptors, because their passive sensors give them a reliable picture of where you are and aren’t, and we strike your targets unmolested then RTB. There’s also the problem that unless you are operating a multi-megawatt ground station your peak noise at any given frequency only works at close ranges, only briefly, and since our B-2, F-22 and Growlers have pinpointed your location they can simply open up the range and rely on other platforms during the interim. It’s not as if noise jamming hasn’t been in use since WWII. And then there’s the whole digital filtering thingy combined with redundancies across platforms which readily separates the wheat from the chaff, thus enabling our network to remain highly functional. Jam our GPS and we'll switch to borrowing your Galileo, Glonass, BeiDou etc. if we aren't already shutting them down. Back to square one.

Blogger Akulkis May 17, 2020 1:18 AM  

> A properly designed frequency hopper is going to get around any form of jamming because it quickly becomes impossible to cover all the frequencies which might be used to transmit for a fraction of a second.

Look into why spark-gap transmitters, with their exponentially decaying sinusoidal waveform, are illegal everywhere. -- You might tune the oscillatory circuit to frequency f(0), but the actual signal bandwidth is extremely wide, from 0 to infinity with no breaks.

Exponentially decaying sinusoid are so much trouble that the Fourier Transforms and Laplace Transforms for such signal shapes aren't even included in the Transform tables in electrical engineering books dealing with the subject -- the culture within that profession is that dead set against them.

In contrast, in mechanical engineer, it's common -- for example, the depth-seeking behavior of a torpedo dropped from a plane or launched from a sub seeking out it's assigned depth (as dialed into the depth-setting mechanism). Note: I'm not sure if M.E. books have the transforms for such a signal/waveform in those transform tables or not.

Blogger Akulkis May 17, 2020 1:50 AM  

"Because ...it quickly becomes impossible to cover all the frequencies which might be used to transmit for a fraction of a second."

Spark-gap transmitters do this automatically.

Blogger Akulkis May 17, 2020 1:53 AM  

"I imagine that Iran has competent sleeper cells in the US to retaliate if the the US attacks Iran. I would if I were them. Imagine what they could do to key US infrastructure points."


If the US obliterates Iran quickly enough, they will claim asylum as stateless people.

Blogger Mr Traumaboyy May 17, 2020 2:53 AM  

A few guys with deer rifles targeting the large transformers can take out the US Grid. I have read over and over that they are made in Asia somewhere. IMHO...the way things stand right now in the USSA, every city in the country would be burning within the week.

Blogger glueballs May 17, 2020 3:08 AM  

Iran has competent sleeper cells in the US to retaliate if the ... US attacks Iran

So the Iranian Ayatollahs just desperately blew up grandma. You know The Covids (OH NO!) would have gotten her anyway. Last year she was run over by a reindeer, on Christmas Eve. Fact is, the Iranians appreciate they could only do small damage against US infrastructure with an all-out effort. The Persians will simply wait until we do ourselves in, which appears imminent in comparison with their history.

Blogger One Deplorable DT May 17, 2020 4:12 AM  

@88 - Look into why spark-gap transmitters, with their exponentially decaying sinusoidal waveform, are illegal everywhere.

Yes, please, go lookup the bandwidth used by the earliest spark-gap transmitters and their range when they were spilling energy over that many frequencies. Then lookup the tunable range of a high end commercially available SDR.

You're going to need a lot of spark gap transmitters to deny all of the frequencies open to modern radio hardware, and do so over any significant piece of land or sea. And when you do this, you're going to make every one of those transmitters and the personnel near them an easy target.

No, jamming is not that simple. It wasn't that simple decades ago when any given radio set had a relatively tiny tunable range and zero ability to frequency hop. It didn't get simpler as technology advanced.

Blogger One Deplorable DT May 17, 2020 4:14 AM  

@86 - Frankly, I am amazed the Islamic terrorists haven't tried to pull off a Mumbai type swarm attack here.

They're employing the far more effective strategy of collecting welfare while calling us racist and importing their family members.

Blogger Akulkis May 17, 2020 5:49 AM  

"You're going to need a lot of spark gap transmitters to deny all of the frequencies open to modern radio hardware, and do so over any significant piece of land or sea. And when you do this, you're going to make every one of those transmitters and the personnel near them an easy target."

Not at all. They are EXTREMELY wideband transmitters.

At the time that spark-gap transmitters were being used, there were only a few dozen stations and a handful of ships that had them, and worldwide traffic was less than a few dozen messages per day.

It was realized at the time that as long as spark-gap transmitters were legal, then traffic density could not be increased by much more than one order of magnitude, and continuous broadcasts by two stations would have to be limited by power/range considerations.

Frequency assignments came as part of the abolition of spark-gap transmitters, because spark-gap transmitters have such wide sidebands (nearly infinite) so as to make station and channel frequency assignments ineffective to the point of meaningless at the practical level.

Spark-gap transmissions are very much akin to power-limited (non-destructive) EMP.

Blogger Akulkis May 17, 2020 5:59 AM  

"No, jamming is not that simple. It wasn't that simple decades ago when any given radio set had a relatively tiny tunable range and zero ability to frequency hop. It didn't get simpler as technology advanced."

I've been in U.S. Army communications since 1990. I'm well aware of what can and cannot be done to our communications. MIJI (Mittering, Interference, Jamming, and Intrusion) training includes recognition of spark-gap transmitter jamming to this day.

Want a good example of spark-gap transmissions -- the electromagnetic interference put out by not-well-shielded electric motors. Back in the analog TV days, it was the cause of intermittent interference. Analog TV signals are FM, which is the most interference-resistant carrier you can get (all of your digital radio transmissions are sent via AM, synth AM, FM, or single-side-band (upper or lower sideband) carriers). It really doesn't matter if your content is digital if even the underlying FM signal is being too badly distorted.
(By comparison, note that nearby lightning strikes do NOT cause interference in FM signals, while in AM and SSB, the received signal demonstrates random noise without fail. This demonstrates how much worse spark-gap transmission are than even lightning)

Blogger Akulkis May 17, 2020 6:02 AM  

"Frankly, I am amazed the Islamic terrorists haven't tried to pull off a Mumbai type swarm attack here."

I'm picturing in my mind's eye thousands of Hindus taking roughly syncronized dumps all over the sidewalks of the Wall Street financial district or some other target locality.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine May 17, 2020 6:30 AM  

"I suspect that the issues being raised are being addressed. Quietly.

Because war plans aren't bandied about publicly."


Well there's the age old question. Who do you really, really trust? I don't trust our mildustplex, manned possibly more often by foreigners than even diversity, civnat to the hilt at best, and full of women, to do those unspoken things properly, or at all, or even to recognize them in the first place.

"Since the Test-ban treaty, who knows if any of our nukes still work? We haven't tested on in over 40 years. Is there something they're not telling us?"

I've known too many nuke-rated brainlets and real brains, who would and do run those numbers for fun, to suspect that our weapons have been systematically aged out of effectiveness. If they were to end up not working it'd be more material than temporal sabotage. Those are still maintained and replaced periodically too.

"Back on an old political forum there was a long time poster submariner who claimed that during exercises his sub was able to penetrate a carrier group and launch a flare onto its deck."

That is almost certainly true. However if you were to ask me odds whether I thought it was due to lack of equipment capability, or lack of personnel competence, I would give you a thousand to one that it was the latter.

As for the Sterling engine, that's a different kind of story, and the Swedish ones are just stupid quiet.

Not that any of the above is how anyone who wanted to attack one of our groups would do so. The Chinese couldn't do so effectively enough even with our incompetence, they'd have to opt for inside-man strategies of having saboteurs already on board. The Russians would have a good chance of rolling our carriers from a hundred miles beyond the horizon though.

Give that another ten or fifteen years of military "diversity" though and the Chinese could probably row up in a row boat, fix limpets, and row off whistling the whole way.

Blogger SciVo May 17, 2020 6:59 AM  

Some time back, I saw a photo of three generations of bombers together: the B-52 Stratofortress, B-1 Lancer, and B-2 Spirit. So I read about their different capabilities: payload, range, runway length, speed, and stealth. I read about how IRL they have in fact played complementary roles in the same operation.

Then I remembered the concept behind the F-35, to be all things to all people in all situations, and facepalmed. It's like an autiste had a theory and no one could tell him no.

Our institutions suck. We have way more administraton than we need, and way less intelligence than we pay for.

Blogger urthshu May 17, 2020 7:57 AM  

'Where do you think those combat odds tables came from?

I've participated in many MILES (military laser-tag) exercises,"

+++

Okay I see my error now. I haven't done this - I'm comparing to civilian paper and pen tabletop miniatures games, not military, and this for the ones I am familiar with. No bother and thank you, I have learned something.

Blogger mike May 17, 2020 8:25 AM  

Im over here stationed in Korea, and Ive been telling my peers about the coming emd of our empire for a while now. You can imagine how well its gone over lmao but im gonna keep tellin em.

Somebody's got to be that lone voice in the wilderness.

Blogger RedJack May 17, 2020 9:52 AM  

That is part of my area. A few men with deer rifles and a map could paralyze a major city.

Blogger Ken Prescott May 17, 2020 11:10 AM  

Also, RAND, Brookings, and the other "think tanks," bless their hearts, tend to postulate spherical cows in a perfect vacuum.

I saw this reading a few of their reports in the 1980s during the "Minuteman Window of Vulnerability" scare, and the "MX Missile Basing Mode of the Month" debates.

Their models presumed two opposing missile farms trading hot punches from a cold start. Essentially, for no discernable reason whatsoever, World War III starts with a fully-generated strike on the US ICBM force that experiences no problems whatsoever--nobody screws up the firing sequence, no moving parts in fuel pumps or guidance systems break, et cetera. Thousands of warheads fly in perfect formation across vast distances for a time-on-target strike.

None of these idiots had ever served one day in the military, and they didn't understand things like Second Lieutenants with maps and compasses, and so on, and so forth . . .

Blogger One Deplorable DT May 17, 2020 2:25 PM  

@95 - Not at all. They are EXTREMELY wideband transmitters.

Once again: go look up how 'wide band' they were. Hint: it's very similar to the frequency range of noise put out by the spark plug in your car.

Now go look up the tunable range on a modern, commercially available SDR.

Frequency assignments came as part of the abolition of spark-gap transmitters, because spark-gap transmitters have such wide sidebands (nearly infinite)

They are not 'infinite' nor 'nearly infinite' nor any where near it. Yes, they were very wide compared to the tunable frequency range available given the crude equipment of the time period. So they were outlawed because people needed more than a few channels. That's not the same as 'infinite.'

@96 - I've been in U.S. Army communications since 1990.

And my dad works at Nintendo. Numbers, not rhetoric, not appeals to self as an authority. Actually try and work the math on a set of spark-gap transmitters that can continuously block any transmissions made on any frequencies in a range from 1 MHz to 6 GHz over the maximum distances allowed by each band and by the antenna(s) connected to your jammer(s).

Once you've worked the math you might understand why your training didn't consist of a single sheet of paper that said "When your CO wants the enemy jammed just light up the Marconi! 1890's amirite? LOL!"

...training includes recognition of spark-gap transmitter jamming to this day.

I have no doubt that it does. But if spark-gap transmitters were magical and had infinite power across infinite or nearly infinite Hz then you wouldn't have needed training beyond "hey buddy, flip that switch, CO wants everything jammed."

Want a good example of spark-gap transmissions -- the electromagnetic interference put out by not-well-shielded electric motors.

You mean the things that used to interfere with home cordless phones and then completely stopped interfering with them the moment the first digital spread spectrum models hit the market? And to think, those phones were FCC limited to a very tiny fraction of the spectrum open to a modern SDR the size of a USB stick.

Blogger Arthur Isaac May 17, 2020 2:50 PM  

Watching the local politicians drooling over the arrival makes me sick. The fact that they're gold plated turkeys just means more gravy.

Blogger Akulkis May 17, 2020 4:34 PM  

"Then I remembered the concept behind the F-35, to be all things to all people in all situations, and facepalmed. It's like an autiste had a theory and no one could tell him no."

Robert McNamara

Blogger crescent wrench May 17, 2020 9:08 PM  

@12

And this is why the charade is allowed to continue by all sides.

The Bretton Woods bribes don't just apply to states within the sphere of influence, but to the entire planet. The military is window dressing: The US Empire is rented.

As the working class tires of paying this rent, we're seeing what Trump is doing: passing the baton to regional powers and gradually drawing back US presence. If failure to pay the rent is not also paired with voluntary vacation, low key evictions will start.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd May 18, 2020 8:57 AM  

One Deplorable DT wrote:They are not 'infinite' nor 'nearly infinite' nor any where near it. Yes, they were very wide compared to the tunable frequency range available given the crude equipment of the time period. So they were outlawed because people needed more than a few channels. That's not the same as 'infinite.'
Old-timey spark gap transmitters were intended to work in the short or medium wave range, with antennas tuned accordingly. If you hook a spark gap to an antenna tuned to the 1-6GHz range, what results would you expect?

Blogger Ken Prescott May 18, 2020 9:55 AM  

"As the working class tires of paying this rent, we're seeing what Trump is doing: passing the baton to regional powers and gradually drawing back US presence. If failure to pay the rent is not also paired with voluntary vacation, low key evictions will start."

Bretton Woods ending for a lot of reasons, including the fact that we won the conflict in question, demographic shifts in various parts of the world, the fact that achieving a gain of X percent in global economy has gotten increasingly difficult for America to do without inflicting serious economic pain on ourselves, and the blowback into US domestic politics from that economic pain (30-plus years and counting, remember when Japan, Inc. was going to own the entire country?).

It's happening no matter who is President. The crucial point is that Trump is moving with the shift instead of fighting it.

Blogger Akulkis May 18, 2020 12:37 PM  

"Old-timey spark gap transmitters were intended to work in the short or medium wave range, with antennas tuned accordingly. If you hook a spark gap to an antenna tuned to the 1-6GHz range, what results would you expect?"

You'll pick it up.

Go look up the Laplace Transform of an exponentially decaying sinusoid. Then tell me how much of the frequency spectrum is zero in relationship to the the frequency f that the sinusoid is tuned at.

Blogger Akulkis May 18, 2020 6:31 PM  

"Old-timey spark gap transmitters were intended to work in the short or medium wave range, with antennas tuned accordingly. If you hook a spark gap to an antenna tuned to the 1-6GHz range, what results would you expect?"

Ok, I've avoiding beating you over the head with this for as long as possible, telling you over and over how to look it up for yourself... but evidently, you refuse:

The Laplace Transform for a decaying exponential:
(t is time domain, s is complex frequency domain.
a is the imaginary frequency component (which defines the rate of decay)
w is the real frequency component (which defines the sinousoidal oscillation in radians/second)
u(x) is the unit-step function = 0 for x<0, 1 for x >= 0.

F(t) : F'(s)=L(F(t))
exponentially decaying sine wave

(e^(-at))(sin(wt))(u(t)) <==> w / ((s+a)^2 + w^2)

exponentially decaying sine wave
(e^(-at))(cos(wt)(u(t)) <==> (s+a)/((s+a)^2 + w^2)

This is why an sparks in an electric motor with windings optimized for 60 Hz (or even 30 or 20 Hz, depending on the motor configuration) causes so much noise on a TV bands, which start at 60 MHz.

6 orders of magnitude.

If you continue to refute this, all I can conclude is that you REALLY don't understand any of this, and are attempting to argue on a subject of which you are unprepared.

As for digital being immune -- try watching a modern TV broadcast that's coming over the air rather than by cable -- there's a lot of drops and freezes. That's because even with modern digital techniques, error detecting and correcting codes, redundancy and all that, NO SIGNAL IS IMMUNE TO THE INJECTION OF NOISE.

Blogger One Deplorable DT May 18, 2020 6:57 PM  

@108 - Old-timey spark gap transmitters were intended to work in the short or medium wave range, with antennas tuned accordingly. If you hook a spark gap to an antenna tuned to the 1-6GHz range, what results would you expect?

Something too weak to actually jam communications unless you're standing next to the thing.

And that seems to be the sticking point we can't get passed in this discussion. Akulkis' is obsessed with how wide a frequency range is theoretically touched by a SGT ('tell me what's left at zero'). And I keep pointing out that the practical spillover...the frequency range unusable while someone was transmitting back in those Old-timey days...wasn't nearly as large as he imagines. Trying to extend it for jamming purposes, instead of trying to reign it in a bit, reduces the power. But you need more power to effectively jam digital systems.

And with that I'm done because I'm sure Akulkis' response will again be based on the assumption that if you turn on a SGT any where in the world it will interfere with your dental X-rays because infinite frequencies.

Blogger Akulkis May 18, 2020 10:29 PM  

Anywhere in the world? No.

But it doesn't take many to shut down a theater.

TV stations already broadcast at 1 MW and higher, so hooking the power supply for one of those to a spark gap is going to put out a significant amount of noise, especially when you consider that most military radio systems are < 100 W. And even the long-range HF radios are typically 125W at most when operation off of vehicle or AC/DC power supply.

If SGTs were all that benign, they wouldn't still be outlawed.

"Trying to extend it for jamming purposes, instead of trying to reign it in a bit, reduces the power. But you need more power to effectively jam digital systems."

Digitized voice only changes your minimum effective signal to noise ratio from 10:1 to 2:1, a factor of 5, which is about 7 dB.

Plop a couple SGTs with multi-kW power supplies, with the oscillator tuned to the geometric mean of the upper and lower of military band (30 MHz & 89 MHz) [roughly 30 MHz * sqrt (3)] and you'll shut down most all tactical radio commo.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd May 19, 2020 12:15 AM  

ODDT, the spak gap gives white noise. Energy is pretty evenly distributed across the whole spectrum. Hook it up to an antenna tuned to the band you want to jam, and you're jamming it. The only downside is that you're wasting energy jamming every other band from Dc to UHF.

The huge advantage to a spark gap is that it can be made cheap and disposable. A foe who can't afford a fancy comms system can jam yours so cheaply he won't care if you blow up some of his jammers. In fact, he'll probably set up jammers just to sucker you into wasting million dollar missiles on them.

A sophisticated foe could set up powerful broadband jammers, and use them to provide illumination for passive sensors. Again, it can be done cheaply, so why not.

Blogger One Deplorable DT May 19, 2020 6:45 AM  

@114 Ominous Cowherd - The early SGTs with a wide transmission bandwidth (30 kHz - 30 MHz)...where someone basically took a spark gap and hooked it to an antenna...were limited in power to the energy that could be stored in the antenna between sparks. This put a pretty severe limit on transmission power. They spread that limited power over a wide spectrum as noted above. Not as wide as you thought, but wide enough that power at any given frequency was quite low. They interfered with each other because neither transmitters nor receivers were tuned. But they wouldn't be able to jam modern equipment with any real power and noise filtering, especially at a distance. You couldn't even hear them beyond 10 miles. And they wouldn't jam a frequency hopping SDR sitting next to one because, well, 30 MHz is no where near 6 GHz. And vice versa if you modified it to transmit across a slice higher up in the spectrum.

To gain significant power and range you need a separate resonate circuit in the design. But once you do that the transmission bandwidth drops dramatically. It's no longer 6 orders of magnitude (never was) or 3 orders of magnitude or even 1 order of magnitude. There's certainly more bleed than with a tube or solid state radio, but nothing remotely approaching the simpler design. Once you have that circuit you're free to ramp up the power. The most powerful SGT built was 300 kW. But it wasn't cheap and it took up a room in a building.

Now if you wanted to build a SGT and use it as a jammer it could be more or less effective than a continuous wave transmitter with the same input power depending on how you look at it. It won't deliver the same energy to a single frequency. But it is a low tech way to mess up a small slice of the spectrum. If your target can only adjust its frequency within that small slice then the SGT is a decent option. But it's not going to jam something tuned outside its slice. And a frequency hopping SDR wouldn't be bothered by it at all no matter where you tuned it. The SDR would just see the interference and jump. Its range is far larger than the SGT's tunable range. (You're not bound by the spark gap. You're bound by your resonant circuit.)

SGTs were not outlawed because only one could transmit at a time or because they bled all over the spectrum. But they did use more of a band and needed more separation than CW. Tubes were better in every respect, especially for audio, so SGTs were banned to make more channels out of the same spectrum.

So yes, SGTs can have a use in jamming. But no, you don't just connect a spark gap to an antenna and jam wide swaths of the RF spectrum for cheap. And a 'powerful broadband' SGT jammer is an oxymoron. If you choose the design that pollutes a wide part of the spectrum, it's not powerful. If you choose the design that can be powerful, the affected frequency range is only broad compared to a CW transmitter.

@113 Akulkis - Plop a couple SGTs with multi-kW power supplies, with the oscillator tuned to the geometric mean of the upper and lower of military band (30 MHz & 89 MHz) [roughly 30 MHz * sqrt (3)] and you'll shut down most all tactical radio commo.

You didn't move the goal posts, you burned them down. We went from 1 SGT jamming everything 1 MHz to 6 GHz to 2 SGTs jamming 30 MHz and 89 MHz.

As to the rest, read my response to Ominous Cowherd in this same post.

Blogger Unknown May 19, 2020 6:44 PM  

And the word of the LORD came unto me, saying: ‘Son of man, set thy face toward the South, and preach toward the South, and prophesy against the forest of the field in the South; and say to the forest of the South: Hear the word of the LORD: Thus saith the Lord GOD: Behold, I will kindle a fire in thee, and it shall devour every green tree in thee, and every dry tree, it shall not be quenched, even a flaming flame; and all faces from the south to the north shall be seared thereby. All flesh shall see that I the LORD have kindled it; it shall not be quenched.’

Ezekiel 20 : 46 - 49


forest of the field in the South is translated as bosveld in the Afrikaans bible.

There are no forests in the south of present day Israel, but South Africa has lots of bosveld.

This prophecy pertains to South Africa ( and Isaiah 18 as well). And the prophecy is quite simple:

Something is going to happen in South Africa which is going to affect the whole world in a bad way.

And what could it be ?

The start of a world war perhaps ?

The world is ignoring South Africa at its own peril.

Blogger Akulkis May 20, 2020 8:00 AM  

"
You didn't move the goal posts, you burned them down. We went from 1 SGT jamming everything 1 MHz to 6 GHz to 2 SGTs jamming 30 MHz and 89 MHz."

I was just demonstrating a small facet of the overall picture.

Take the "obvious" case, and extrapolate, because the power-drop off per decade is rather low.

The PRIMARY reason SGT's aren't used much in jamming enemy radio-based equipment (radio, radar, etc.) is because it jams your OWN equipment, too. Because it's that effective. There's no good way to filter it out.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd May 21, 2020 12:16 PM  

ODDT, it's been about 40 years since I seriously thought about RF circuitry, and I'm not really up to speed at all. There may well be better ways to make white noise to couple to an antenna. Are there cheaper ways to make a disposable device? Being able to litter the theater with small missile decoy/jammers to distract and annoy the attacker and maybe even disrupt his comms a bit would be valuable, if it were cheap enough. Ideally, you would have the attacker wasting $1million missiles on $100 improvised spark gaps.

Akulkis wrote:The PRIMARY reason SGT's aren't used much in jamming enemy radio-based equipment (radio, radar, etc.) is because it jams your OWN equipment, too. Because it's that effective. There's no good way to filter it out.
If you're a sophisticated defender with landline comms or a bunch of goat humpers with no comms, that's OK.

Blogger Unknown May 21, 2020 9:16 PM  

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Blogger shane July 16, 2020 2:17 AM  

Why, if we know it's inevitable China will someday attack when they are ready, do we not preemptively surprise nuke attack them first, before they are fully ready? Why risk being OODA loop reactive delayed in responding, idly awaiting them to surprise commence hostilities first?

Blogger matism July 16, 2020 7:45 AM  

You want to change this? Smash the filthy tribe swill who have been behind most of the evil in this world for at least the past 100 years. They helped their Messiahs - Lenin and Stalin - murder FIFTY MILLION across Russia and Eastern Europe. But those do not count since they were mostly only Goyim!!!

Blogger Tucanae Services July 16, 2020 10:50 AM  

We have forgotten a very valuable lesson. During WWII most of the machinery that went to war was designed the way it was on two counts:

* The machinery - tank, GP, artillery had to be field maintained with little support from long logistic lines and tools.
* Simplicity - Any kid fresh off the farm could most likely get whatever it was running again by mere inspection.

Now the tech is so complex that in many cases field maintenance is not even possible.

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