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Saturday, May 09, 2020

Whose hype do you buy?

The China-China-China crowd has been predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy for years. But is it actually as vulnerable as they believe? More than a few international economists simply don't buy that assumption:
RT talked to economists to find out if Beijing may have foreseen the economic crash and about the Chinese government’s response to it.

“Nobody, including Beijing, could have foreseen the depth and gravity of this pandemic, specifically the cryptic transmission parameters by which the Covid-19 virus spreads. It is truly a once-in-100-year pandemic event,” said Sourabh Gupta, senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies.

According to him, China was better prepared because “it is in a much healthier fiscal position compared to most advanced economies and many emerging economies too.”

Gupta explained that the central government’s debt level as a percentage of GDP is fairly modest, which means there is ample space on the government’s balance sheet to ramp up policy support. Also, consumers’ debt levels relative to income is modest, so they are not overleveraged either and can open up their wallets.

He was echoed by Andrew Leung, international and independent China strategist, who said “China is always very long-term strategy-minded” and is better prepared for any crisis thanks to its state capitalism. “The state can direct massive funds and mobilize businesses and people more effectively than the West. The same capability was demonstrated during the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 and the world financial crisis of 2008-09,” said Leung.

According to Temur Umarov, an expert on China and Central Asia at Carnegie Moscow Center, every country is in a different economic situation, so their response to the coronavirus pandemic also differs. While numerous economic stimulus packages were announced by some countries, China has focused on recovery of domestic consumption, as well as on help for small- and medium-sized businesses, he said.

All the analysts agreed that neither China nor other countries could have foreseen the magnitude of the current crisis.

“There is a tsunami of negative views about China as a result of the spreading coronavirus crisis. America’s bad-mouthing has also helped. But China remains by far the second-largest economy, bigger than the rest of the BRIC countries combined,” said Leung. He noted that many more countries have China as their largest trading partner than the United States.
I think the Chinese economy is better poised to survive the crisis simply because it is less financialized, which is another way of saying that it is less fictional. And I would remind those who cite the failed predictions concerning Japanese preeminence of the 1980s of three things.

  1. The US economy of 2020 is not the US economy of 1985. The USA of 2020 isn't even recognizably American anymore.
  2. China is not Japan.
  3. The Japanese economy of 1985 was very heavily financialized. Most of its massive real estate wealth was as fictional as the Silicon Valley wealth is today.

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51 Comments:

Blogger Ledford Ledford May 09, 2020 9:24 AM  

I have no idea what the Chinese economy is or will be. I just know everyone's opinion is always wrong. Rule of thumb. We have ALWAYS been wrong about China and always will be. Maybe Nixon had some insight. Or not.

Best thing is to distance ourselves through tariffs and be wary but not belligerent.

Blogger Stilicho May 09, 2020 9:25 AM  

China has been leveraging its export economy to build domestic infrastructure and consumption. The tool? Financialization. China won"t cease to be an economic power. What will cease is its growth rate. Along with a decrease in its ability to prop up malinvestment via central planning/crony socialism.

The key for the US will be to disengage from Chinese trade and rebuild its industrial base while the dollar is still the reserve currency. Trump is trying and is e even making progress with China's regional enemies (Vietnam, Japan, etc.).

The debt deflation crash is coming to the whole world. Only the timing is in question. Neither China nor the West is prepared for it, but we will see who does a better job of it. China will try to prepare with a series of plans. The West in general and the US in particular will be a mixed bag based on different incentives. Advantage China as long as they have the right plans. Advantage US if the diversification of preparation produces a variety of sectors or rwgions equipped for the coming changes.

As with any conflict, it's a fluid situation and the enemy always gets a vote.

"Made in China" delenda est.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd May 09, 2020 9:25 AM  

Central control is bad, because it distorts or eliminates price signals.
Financialization is bad, because it distorts or eliminates price signals.

Yes, the details are different. Both are bad.

Blogger MaskettaMan May 09, 2020 9:26 AM  

"The state can direct massive funds and mobilize businesses and people more effectively than the West."

I'm not hugely anti-China but this reads so much like it was written by those Chinese demoralization shills that are swarming /pol/ anymore.

Blogger Brett baker May 09, 2020 9:39 AM  

If China really has focused on helping small and medium sized businesses, that is better than the "Megacorps Uber Alles!" policy we get here in the US, even by people supposedly against large corporations.

Blogger xevious2030 May 09, 2020 9:53 AM  

The US is in a bad position, and China is in a good one. But it doesn’t matter. The below is not a proof, it is consideration.
China<84k Corona [false]
China<5k Corona deaths [false]
Do the Chinese care about the real? [no]
China=bug people
Bug people will wake up, work, repeat. Flow is automatic, in that.
Economy=flow
Standard of living is based on internal production, and the flow of goods and capital
Currency=debt=abstraction
In the matrix, function is not about the real and natural.
The matrix is about believability by participants within.

What happens when the high trust resound cognizance to the reality of low trust people? What if war is not the aim? You get Trump.

Understanding the rules presented within the matrix is important in predictability. Predictability is able to be demonstrated. But a portion of the predictability is based on mass perception, belief, with certain rules only working under a particularly accepted beliefs, and once those beliefs change, certain rules become nonsensical, and certain rules emerge into relevance. Human systems depend on the state of human material. And human material is malleable. We have Trump.

Blogger Sam May 09, 2020 10:00 AM  

Currently Japan's nominal GDP per capita is 40k compared to 60k for the US. If China 'only' managed that feat it would be
over 3 times bigger then the US economy
about 50% of the world economy

Having 12 times as many people as Japan means when China stands up, the world takes notice.

Blogger AngryGreek May 09, 2020 10:14 AM  

Michael Hudson‘s older stuff on his blog is worth a look. China’s financial leadership is weary on what happened to Japan (and Russia) during the 1990s from US policies.

https://michael-hudson.com/2010/09/americas-china-bashing-a-compendium-of-junk-economics/

“None of this can be blamed on China. But any nation that succeeds economically is assumed to be doing so at America’s expense. It is as if other countries should sacrifice themselves to let American investors siphon off the entire surplus. This attitude is sweeping Congress, whose China bashing is reminiscent of the Japan-phobia of the late 1980s. This ended when the United States convinced the Bank of Japan to commit financial suicide by agreeing to the Plaza and Louvre Accords turning Japan into a bubble economy by raising the yen’s exchange rate after 1985 and then flooding the economy with credit. Tokyo was humorously referred to as “the 13th Federal Reserve district” for recycling its export earnings in U.S. Treasury bills, becoming the mainstay of the Reagan-Bush budget deficits that financed U.S. global military spending while quadrupling the public debt.”

Blogger Jim May 09, 2020 10:18 AM  

"Most of its massive real estate wealth was as fictional as the Silicon Valley wealth is today."

Ghost cities. It's a different form of fiction, but still fiction.

Blogger crescent wrench May 09, 2020 10:31 AM  

The Chinese have already experienced a couple of nasty crashes and reacted by brutally suppressing the news and even more brutally cracking down on those most impacted.

This is not just a a chinese regime thing, either: the mentality extends to street level.

The last great stock market dive I heard of from China prompted a government edict banning stock sales for some 18 months.

The housing blogs I used to follow during the Obama depression carried first-hand details of entire condo buildings full of people rioting and blocking the paths of realtors when prices plummeted some 50%.

The idea real economic data escaping china is as ludicrous as the idea of real coronavirus data escaping china.

Blogger Johnny May 09, 2020 11:01 AM  

A long time ago Soros made a currency bet based on the expectation that the Chinese Economy would collapse. I assume he lost money because it didn't happen.

The Chinese economy isn't less fake than ours, but more so. Because things are run so much from the central authority, if they want to run up a debt they can do it in subordinate institutions. Not sure about right now, but a few years ago lots of Chinese Banks had loans that would brake a bank in a capitalist country. They sustain because the government regiments everything. Given that it is the way it has been for a long time, and they haven't had a financial blow up yet, apparently it isn't going to happen, not for internal reasons anyway.

At least some of the time, predictions of the Chinese economy imploding have the look of political manipulation. The real intent is to diffuse the concerns over Chinese expansionism. The message: don't worry, it is all going to fall apart.

Relative GNP numbers as reported are usually generated using the relative exchange values of the currencies. Because these tend to be manipulated in various ways, the relative GNP numbers are often misleading. Sometimes very misleading.

As for the United States, we are the big tree in the forest. If we go down we will take most of the other trees with us. China could get burned through the loss of foreign markets. The big issue for China, probably, would be political stability. Mainly, will the peasants put up with a lower standard of living owing the the loss of foreign markets?



Blogger Simon May 09, 2020 11:09 AM  

"government’s debt level as a percentage of GDP is fairly modest, which means there is ample space on the government’s balance sheet to ramp up policy support"
For those "economics experts" when you are not enslaved by debt ... it's the perfect time to get enslaved by debt.
As if policies could not be sustainable. As if not being in debt was not good in itself.

Blogger Section 8A May 09, 2020 11:14 AM  

The documentary and book "The Princes of the Yen" explains well what happened to Japan - summarized as well by AngryGreek above.

If China avoids the same fate, which it seems to be doing by being more nationalist and not allowing 'help' from the Usual Suspects who've been using America as a milch cow since the late 1940's, China will rise.

Blogger justaguy May 09, 2020 11:21 AM  

"State Capitalism"?

Blogger tuberman May 09, 2020 11:24 AM  

RT has it's own form of 'surface' propaganda. Russia is giving away free land in Western Russia, and quite a few are taking them up on it. This is a move due to fear of Chinese expansion into resource rich Western Russia. So, like the Chinese, they will go all in to placate the Chinese on the surface, while carrying out deeper plans to counter them for their own interests. I'm good with that. Take RT's view for what it is, and with a grain or two of salt.

Some say the current arms race by the Russians is only part way against the USA, but equally against China (or even mainly against China). Are they going to project their fears? Nyet. Perspective.

Know this:
* The DS is world Wide
* Trump hates the Deep State
* Putin hates the Deep State, if possible even more
* Xi hates the Deep State, but has used it sometimes in the past

There are DS players in all three countries, and even a few left in Russia (not many)

Hey, perhaps some of you guys here should take up the free land offers from Russia?

Blogger kurt9 May 09, 2020 11:26 AM  

David Goldman is coming out with a book about how China is destined to be the next superpower. Peter Zeihan, in contrast, believes China will collapse in the next 3-4 years. My thinking is even if China's economy does collapse, it will regenerate fairly quickly. All of that Chinese debt money is in infrastructure. Ours is in entitlements and social programs. If China collapses, all of that infrastructure is still there, waiting for people to pick up the pieces. I think China will do just fine.

Blogger crescent wrench May 09, 2020 11:44 AM  

Jim wrote:"Most of its massive real estate wealth was as fictional as the Silicon Valley wealth is today."

Ghost cities. It's a different form of fiction, but still fiction.


I remember some people doing napkin math on the Chinese ghost cities and calculating the value at some 40 trillion back when they were first being discussed in 2006/7 (The projects continued, adding to that price tag at least until 2017 if not today)

Many industry-wide bankruptcies in the west are a result of massive subsidization by the CCP regime of Chinese counterparts.

A bird's eye view taking in the whole of the little things noticed reeks of a nation-sized ponzi scheme whose mendacity is aided and abetted by "giving a cut" to those at the top of the food chains across the west.

Collate the massive costs of all these things people keep on noticing and not only does it not tally with Gupta's conclusions re: chinese national debt, it points to a debt to GDP ratio capable of dropping jaws even in central american regimes, assuming it's accounted for at all and not simply tossed down the memory hole.

"Money Printer Go Brrr"

At the end of the day it's a Xanatos gambit for an ideologically motivated communist regime: They either bring down western leaders with them, disprove all modern "capitalist" economic theory by failing to be found out/collapse, or both.

Blogger Gettimothy May 09, 2020 11:56 AM  

Call it the Autonomous Oblast!

Blogger justaguy May 09, 2020 12:01 PM  

I don't have a crystal ball but I note that China only rose because the deep state elites decided to use it as a slave labor market to get lower labor costs-- reducing the middle class of their respective nations. The Western middle classes lost and China's serfs grew. How China does I think depends on how much of the West stays loyal to them. Chani would melt in an embargo, but no one is evening thinking of that level.

The rich still want to grow richers and those that think of their grandkids are ignored.

Blogger The Other Donald May 09, 2020 12:05 PM  

The Han are a slave race. Conceptually crippled by their character language, which disables them from thinking outside the box. They cannot innovate, only copy, and they do not value human life.

Two decades ago I watched a bamboo pole fall from a Hong Kong high-rise and kill a baby riding on it's mother's back. No one stopped to comfort her but me, an American who spoke no Chinese.

The Han have the hearts of spiders. They think they can plunder Africa, and maybe they can. But Africa will destroy them in the end, as it has destroyed all colonists before them.

And most of the western world now holds them in enmity. I cannot see a bright future for them.

Blogger James Dixon May 09, 2020 12:06 PM  

> The China-China-China crowd has been predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy for years.

Define collapse. It will take time, but China being the center of world manufacturing is done. Companies are moving out and supply chains are being changed. The US companies currently addicted to low costs and large markets will probably be some of the last to leave, but eventually even they will have to at least second source their supplies.

They won't loose everything, but their dreams of global dominance are being shattered.

Their domestic economy is more than large enough to maintain them as a regional power, but probably not as the world superpower they want to be.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd May 09, 2020 12:11 PM  

tuberman wrote:Hey, perhaps some of you guys here should take up the free land offers from Russia?
Too far south, and the Rooskis talk funny.

Blogger tuberman May 09, 2020 12:35 PM  

"This is a move due to fear of Chinese expansion into resource rich Western Russia."

Oops... Eastern Russia, of course. I need to start editing before posting.

Blogger Ken Prescott May 09, 2020 12:59 PM  

"The US economy of 2020 is not the US economy of 1985."

True. Not especially relevant, but true.

"The USA of 2020 isn't even recognizably American anymore."

So bad it's not even wrong; "American" is an entirely synthetic nationality that has been reinvented multiple times and will be again. And, oddly enough, it ties in with financialization: fiat money is, when you think about it, eminently suited to a fiat nationality. The money, just like the nationality, has been reinvented multiple times . . .

. . . and will be again.

"China is not Japan."

True. China isn't Japan. It's in a much worse geographic position than Japan ever was or will be.

America will still be the one big dog with a paw in two major ocean basins. No one else will have that priceless advantage.

"The Japanese economy of 1985 was very heavily financialized."

True. And China's is even moreso. It's financialized both internally and by derivation from American financialization. If the American bubble truly implodes . . . well, that will be that. If the Bretton Woods system merely ends, the result will be regional powers of varying strength, much like the situation at the height of the Industrial Revolution, where major powers included France, Germany, Great Britain, the United States, and Japan.

Notice anyone missing from that list? There's a reason China wasn't a player. It was only a player insofar as the American-run Bretton Woods system let it be one. Take that away, and geography will come back and bite them in the fundament. They not only have to deal multiple choke points adjacent to them, they're behind multiple LAYERS of choke points between them and their resources and potential customers.

"Most of its massive real estate wealth was as fictional as the Silicon Valley wealth is today."

Silicon Valley "wealth" is in the form of information services provided. 1985 Japan's "wealth" was based solely on the alleged price of dirt in downtown Tokyo.

The information services are, in some sense, actually useful to varying degrees, to varying numbers of people. The problem they're having is figuring out how to monetize a lot of them. That will get solved for the services that are sufficiently valuable to enough people with enough money (however "money" ends up being defined). The rest, not so much.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia May 09, 2020 1:02 PM  

"According to Gupta, the Chinese economy will be in the growth column later this year and will even end the year, overall, with positive growth. “There will be no V-shaped recovery and certainly growth will be nowhere near the pre-Covid-19 six-percent target. It will be more like the one to two percent range"

One to two percent rebound is probably right, but China doesn't need to get back to 6 -- it needs to get to 8 or more. And most likely it won't.

Vox, the RT article is good, and you're insights at the end of the post are correct or mostly correct, but we need to understand a few other key differences:

--Food. China has a food problem, we don't -- or rather we have a food problem where we're destroying what we grow/breed because we imposed upon ourselves this stupid draconian lockdown. That will end eventually.

--Energy. China has an energy problem, we don't -- or rather we have an energy problem where we've stopped using energy because we imposed upon ourselves this stupid draconian lockdown. This too will end eventually.

(Wait, did I just repeat myself? Apologies).

--Real Estate – China has built too much. As Jim wrote above, the “wealth” there is a fiction. There are empty office buildings and apartments everywhere. So, yeah, China isn’t highly financialized, but the main source of “wealth” (big BIG air quotes there) for many is real estate, of which there is too much. We, on the other hand, are not building enough housing stock. See California.

--Demography – which is destiny, and China’s destiny is bleak. They will start having negative population growth in the next 5-7 years, and the slope is down down down. The 1 child policy was a catastrophe.

--“State Capitalism” – An apt phrase as Just a Guy wrote and Ominous Cowherd described. Quietly, but ominously, the major corporations are now state owned enterprises, Huawei among them. Huawei was poised to be the dominant tele player on the planet, but that dream is over.

--Capital and Talent flight – It’s flown under the radar, but many of the top entrepreneurs who, as mostly individual actors, were responsible for China’s dramatic growth, are now stepping aside from their enterprises. They are also quietly moving their capital offshore and/or investing elsewhere. Been to Vancouver in the last three years? I have. The Chinese expats are buying all the choice property there. If any international market sector is winning, its Canadian real estate agents.

I circulate among some university communities, and see first and second hand the Chinese students that come here, most of whom come from the elite social strata. They love it, and most would love to stay for an extended period, if not permanently. It’s easy to see why.
The USA has tons of problems, all well known and all too numerous to go into here. But where are people putting their money despite where their mouth is?

An analogy with presidential polls is instructive. All the “elite” polls right now have the GE losing to Sleepy Joe. The betting markets? Trump by +8 or more. The “media” love China. Were there betting markets on China vs USA, guess where the money would go?

Blogger Unknown May 09, 2020 2:50 PM  

Notice that the less "developed" a country is the less the effects of the pandemic. Now that could be due to a number of reasons. It could be due to non existent record keeping, less density of population, worse health care (the vulnerable were not keep on artificial life support), and lower life expectancy. There could be other reasons, but seems to me that their populations are younger and spend less on keeping the vulnerable alive. In any case when their economies fall they don't fall as far as ours. So seems to me those economies are better prepared to weather these civilization wreaking episodes.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia May 09, 2020 3:03 PM  

The Other Donald wrote:The Han are a slave race. Conceptually crippled by their character language, which disables them from thinking outside the box.

In addition to it's non-phonetic character approach, it's a language where definite and indefinite articles do not exist, and where you need inserting words to define plurality, instead of simple word markers.

This is not a language that will win.

Blogger Revelation Means Hope May 09, 2020 3:26 PM  

One advantage China may have is the ruthlessness needed to repudiate the financialization debt load. Perhaps the corruption investigations and executions are part of that.

Their advantage is their cultural ability to lie like a rug. And that advantage is contrary to God and His blessings. So the prince of this world may grant them prosperity for a time, and God will outmaneuver Satan as He always does, but it will fail in the end. And that failure will also serve Gods purposes.

Blogger brbrophy May 09, 2020 3:35 PM  

China will have short and small economic downturns, but nothing that would compare to the destruction the US economy will face.

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants May 09, 2020 3:53 PM  

Of course the key is to disengage with China & bring manufacturing back to the US.
That is not going to happen. The US is already getting cozy with Taiwan,Vietnam,Korea,and India as the replacement manufacturing bases for our future cheap plastic crap.
The amount of building materials coming out of Korea to the US has greatly increased in the last 2 decades. Before Corona, I was buying more steel, polycarbonate, fiberglass and fasteners from S Korea than I was from China, when it was the exact opposite, circa 2004.
Mexico has also managed to secure quite a handy amount of our manufacturing of building materials, as well.
The city of Monterrey is building up to be a big manufacturing hub.
I agree with the RT article.

Blogger Dan Karelian May 09, 2020 3:56 PM  

As noted by others here: Geography is also destiny. China being aware of that is attempting overcome the limitations of theirs with the New Silk Road and by securing the South China Sea, so as not to end up being choked like the Japanese were by the Americans prior to Pearl Harbor. The extent to which they will be able to project power in order to enforce this network of logistics remains to be seen as the nationalist trend develops.

The Russians better speedy up developing and settling Siberia in light of Chinese expansionism. A Land mass that is a third larger than the US and with a population density that of Australia's might end up on the Chinese menu like East Turkestan gradually did for the Han, Tang and Qing dynasties.

I predict that China will return to a dynastic monarchy once again, on or after the 'global sunset' of the demon of modernity and enlightenment.

It might be useful for VD to write his whole thesis on China in book format at some point, as the the issue keeps recurring and getting debated back and forth like JBP was.
Instead of the occasional blog entry with pieces of opinion; "The Case for China" or something of the sort could fully formulate VD's position on the civilization and it's prospects.

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants May 09, 2020 3:58 PM  

Interesting, thanks.
Also, the word you were looking for is leary, not weary.

Blogger jkmack May 09, 2020 4:22 PM  

China Collapse? It has already happened for me. I no longer buy China, and I am striving to no longer use companies like walmart or amazon, that do buy from China. Local.

FYI I am also abandoning US financial system, as much as possible, it is a process.

Blogger Daniel May 09, 2020 5:14 PM  

I don't buy any of the hype. China is a lie. The Deep State are liars. You have two bad houses, but only one has its power in nationless conflicted alliances.

Blogger Stilicho May 09, 2020 5:55 PM  

Watch the Elders of Wye take this opportunity to become "friendlier" with China , selling their "friendship" as a replacement for the relationships China is in the process of losing. I don't think the Chinese will fall for it this time either, but I will be surprised if the attempt is not made.

Blogger Lazy Hero May 09, 2020 6:04 PM  

H'mmm... Study some Chinese history, every 500 years or so they are supposedly more advanced and etc. than any European country (granted this is all from Cultural Marxist sources) and yet they never take advantage of this and conquered the world. Remember the Mongols conquered China and within a couple of generations were Mongol no more. Failed to conquer Japan and Vietnam. Also, their much lauded high IQ is much to do about nothing. Years ago I read a WSJ article that said statistically China should have 300 million plus geniuses in their population and yet they couldn't even invent a new toaster. And yes the Chinese were perplexed by this, they admitted they were not inventive and wanted to adjust their schools to a more Western format to encourage all of their geniuses to invent. Still waiting. Related to this I've read that North East Asian IQ while testing high is reached at a faster maturity rate than any other race. Just like blacks mature faster physically, its why you have White WRs when given an actual chance in the NFL can succeed, they're maturing later, and yes Whites do this mentally as well. Hence its a White Man's world of inventions.

So, in conclusion, I don't fear China except for the greed of our leaders who will gladly allow them to harm us to gain wealth. But realistically the Chinaman is just breathing the White Man's air and has always been so.

Blogger Kiwi May 09, 2020 7:54 PM  

I can't imagine China going away anytime soon. They've adapted under very tight boundaries so can do a lot with a little. Plus, they're a giant collective, hard to crush that.

From the outside looking in, I can see we are far more collective/swarmers here downunder than Americans (blame the Maori for that), and it's prob why the Chinese love us, that and our undeveloped land mass.

Blogger eclecticmn May 09, 2020 8:09 PM  

@20. The Other DonaldMay 09, 2020 12:05 PM
The Han are a slave race. Conceptually crippled by their character language, which disables them from thinking outside the box. They cannot innovate, only copy, and they do not value human life.

Two decades ago I watched a bamboo pole fall from a Hong Kong high-rise and kill a baby riding on it's mother's back. No one stopped to comfort her but me, an American who spoke no Chinese.

The Han have the hearts of spiders. They think they can plunder Africa, and maybe they can. But Africa will destroy them in the end, as it has destroyed all colonists before them.

And most of the western world now holds them in enmity. I cannot see a bright future for them.


I have no crystal ball.

ADVChina guys report on the lack of good Samaritans in China. Old lady collapsing in a crosswalk and no one helps. They also screw each other (outside of family ties) when they can get away with it. IMO a dose of Christianity would help.

There is the old punch line "I don't have to outrun the tiger I only have to outrun you." China only has to be better than the US to do better than the US. In the US the financial institutions have taken over the govt. Not so in China. China has not destroyed the family. China does not pay single girls to have babies with no husband.

Chinese may not have the creative gene/culture to win Noble Prizes but they excel in the engineering sphere. The Chinese have nationwide academic testing while the US outlaws IQ based hiring and US 'educators' try to destroy testing because the results expose racial differences. Chinese parents rioted when the Chinese govt tried to allow affirmative action admittance for students from poor areas.

I often wondered if the Jewish predominance in Science Nobel prize winners is due in part to their admitted increased neuroticism. BTW Nigerians recently attacked a Chinese factory in Nigeria in response to Chinese discrimination against Africans in China.

Finally, China has limited the franchise to the 10% who belong to the CCP. The Hans sometimes riot, take over factories and police stations and have more balls than Americans.

Blogger furor kek tonicus ( according to the 13th Amendment, Slavery is neither Cruel nor Unusual: MSAGA ) May 09, 2020 8:50 PM  

He noted that many more countries have China as their largest trading partner than the United States.

Nixon may have been smarter than the Democrats but he wasn't smarter than Henry Kissinger.

Blogger eclecticmn May 09, 2020 9:35 PM  

This topic brought to mind one observation by the ADVChina guys.
They said that Chinese are not curious. They do not ask why something is. They ask their Chinese wives about something odd and the wives say they never cared to think about it.

The Chinese have a character based written language and a tonal based spoken language. Has anyone ever looked into how this affects brain development? A book The Geography of Thought said that Asians remember the background better in paintings etc while Westerners remember the main object better.

Blogger Jim May 09, 2020 9:47 PM  

Lazy Hero wrote:Also, their much lauded high IQ is much to do about nothing.

And the reason for this is...

eclecticmn wrote:They also screw each other (outside of family ties) when they can get away with it.

... right there. They cheat.

Blogger DavidFromOhio May 09, 2020 9:48 PM  

China has mass debt, demographic problem with a ageing population plus gender imbalance, and gross missallocation of production. The plus side is they also have alot of factory and a small welfare state plus a homogeneous society.
The united states has mass debt, demographic problem with a aging decline native productive population and a growing foreign welfare class, gross missallocation of resources into finances and education, a out of control welfare state. on the plus side we have a high tech industrial high end industrial base, and donald trump. Both empires have long term problems and I worry that the USA doesnt have the political will to confront reality

Blogger JamesB.BKK May 10, 2020 1:30 AM  

He was echoed by Andrew Leung, international and independent China strategist, who said “China is always very long-term strategy-minded” and is better prepared for any crisis thanks to its state capitalism.

"State capitalism" eh? This structure of production was once referred to by thought leaders such as the quoted writer and his selected quoted interviewee as fascism or national socialism - and their ilk were always careful to tell us since childhood that these are bad. Are they not so bad? Who knows given similarities with state-sanctioned central bank controls elsewhere, but the rhetorical and labeling sleight-of-hand are signaling something. Could be Gerries doing it is bad but chinks doing it is ok. Because among other reasons what are we gonna do about it? Until they become overtly expansionist using hot means or something.

Could be we or rather they never should have done anything about it even if our current president's spokeslady informed us our conscripted uncles and surviving fathers and grandfathers and the financiers of their war tools saved the world, and is very impressive in searching and locating material in her book of notes within hearing just a few key words of each retardo White House press corps's member's question. She's probably good at Name that Tune.

Blogger JamesB.BKK May 10, 2020 1:59 AM  

The rough expression, "When you meet the tiger, you don't need to run faster than the tiger. You need only run faster than your friend." is not an indictment of Han hearts. In the west a similar truth is expressed in the various sayings about attempting to save a drowning man, though in a more dour way. It's about risk assessment, mitigation of risk if even possible, self-sacrifice, reaction, instinct, and trade-offs. It of course does not reach such potential mitigating measures as the person and his friend finding and killing the tiger and selling its testicles and other parts on claims of enhanced sexual prowess. The wild tiger count illustrates the choices made. As for being trapped in the cages of their hugely (overly) complex even though simplified language and Confucian ways, there is something to that but a large number of them also speak, read, and write English better than many of we do.

Blogger John Rockwell May 10, 2020 10:44 AM  

eclecticmn wrote: @20. The Other DonaldMay 09, 2020 12:05 PM

The Han are a slave race. Conceptually crippled by their character language, which disables them from thinking outside the box. They cannot innovate, only copy, and they do not value human life.

Two decades ago I watched a bamboo pole fall from a Hong Kong high-rise and kill a baby riding on it's mother's back. No one stopped to comfort her but me, an American who spoke no Chinese.

The Han have the hearts of spiders. They think they can plunder Africa, and maybe they can. But Africa will destroy them in the end, as it has destroyed all colonists before them.

And most of the western world now holds them in enmity. I cannot see a bright future for them.


I have no crystal ball.

ADVChina guys report on the lack of good Samaritans in China. Old lady collapsing in a crosswalk and no one helps. They also screw each other (outside of family ties) when they can get away with it. IMO a dose of Christianity would help.

There is the old punch line "I don't have to outrun the tiger I only have to outrun you." China only has to be better than the US to do better than the US. In the US the financial institutions have taken over the govt. Not so in China. China has not destroyed the family. China does not pay single girls to have babies with no husband.

Chinese may not have the creative gene/culture to win Noble Prizes but they excel in the engineering sphere. The Chinese have nationwide academic testing while the US outlaws IQ based hiring and US 'educators' try to destroy testing because the results expose racial differences. Chinese parents rioted when the Chinese govt tried to allow affirmative action admittance for students from poor areas.

I often wondered if the Jewish predominance in Science Nobel prize winners is due in part to their admitted increased neuroticism. BTW Nigerians recently attacked a Chinese factory in Nigeria in response to Chinese discrimination against Africans in China.

Finally, China has limited the franchise to the 10% who belong to the CCP. The Hans sometimes riot, take over factories and police stations and have more balls than Americans.


Even so the Chinese ability to fight foreigners have often proven lacking. Losing against the Muslims in the Battle of Talas even when they were at the height of wealth and economic strength.

As well as losing against the Mongols and Jurchens.




Blogger spacehabitats May 10, 2020 8:00 PM  

Also China started working to perfect the molten salt thorium reactor years before America's Department of Energy decided to fund some R&D toward this goal. This technology has the potential to make China energy independent with what promises to be a source of unlimited, pollution free electricity.

Blogger JamesB.BKK May 11, 2020 12:04 AM  

Even so the Chinese ability to fight foreigners have often proven lacking.

They may not have had sufficient cruelty or realization that their enemies would decapitate all inhabitants of conquered cities until it was too late. Or both.

Blogger Monotonous Languor May 11, 2020 4:43 AM  

Getting an accurate assessment of China's economic condition is difficult to impossible. But there's one sure-fire test to know when it's in trouble... China starts a war of some kind with one of its neighbors in the region. It doesn't even have to be invasion of Taiwan, just as long as it can deflect internal sentiment away from economic hardship and towards patriotic fervor.

Blogger Monotonous Languor May 11, 2020 4:48 AM  

The dirty little secret of World War II is that fascism is the most efficient form of government ever devised.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd May 11, 2020 11:51 PM  

JamesB.BKK wrote:Even so the Chinese ability to fight foreigners have often proven lacking.
They may not have had sufficient cruelty or realization that their enemies would decapitate all inhabitants of conquered cities until it was too late. Or both.

If the Han thought their families were safe, they wouldn't fight to save other Han families.
Monotonous Languor wrote:The dirty little secret of World War II is that fascism is the most efficient form of government ever devised.
Efficiency is no legitimate aim of government.

Blogger eclecticmn May 15, 2020 12:15 PM  

Excellent article by Spengler on China.
https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/the-chinese-challenge/

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