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Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Betting on a Trumpslide

A bigtime Vegas gambler is all in on Trumpslide 2020:
My friend drove a taxi in Vegas in those days. She asked every customer who got in the cab, “I’m taking a survey. There are no hidden cameras. No one will ever know what you said. Who are you voting for?” She kept a running score. Close to 100% of her cab customers told her “Trump.” This, of course, didn’t match anything we heard from the pollsters. My gut told me this amateur cab driver poll was more significant than all the pollsters combined.

Knowing all this, I made the biggest bet of my life on Trump. I got 6 to 1 odds. Hillary was given a 99% chance of winning only three days before the election. We all know how that turned out.

Guess what? It’s Groundhog Day. It’s happening all over again.

The same exact pollsters have Trump losing by double digits again. The media is gloating. Democrats are already measuring the curtains at the White House. What a mistake.

Trump is a real-life Rocky Balboa. Trump is screaming “Hit me, c’mon, hit me, I dare you.” He gets hit, but he never goes down. Trump has failed a hundred times in business. He’s lost his entire fortune. At one point he was worth negative $4 billion. And of course, we all know he was counted out a thousand times during the 2016 election campaign.

But just like Rocky Balboa, you can never count Trump out. He’s relentless. I like to give this priceless advice: No one has ever gotten rich betting against America, or Donald J. Trump.

It’s all happening again- except on steroids. The polls are crooked- again. And of course, if anyone thought it was dangerous to announce your support of Trump in 2016, that was a picnic compared to today. Today you can be beaten to death for wearing a Trump cap. Today you can be firebombed for putting a Trump sign on your lawn. Today you will lose your job for saying “All Lives Matter.”

Today the liberal mob is destroying George Washington and Abraham Lincoln statues. They’re setting fire to the Virgin Mary. They’re looting and burning police stations. Democrat Governors are preventing you from going to church. Democrat Mayors are painting taxpayer-funded streets with “Black Lives Matter.” Here’s the best one of all: Museum curators are being fired for buying art pieces from white artists.

Today you’re taking your job, career, business and life in your hands to admit anywhere, to anyone, you support Trump.

You still think those polls are accurate? You don’t see it coming? This is Groundhog Day. And Trump is Rocky Balboa.

Trump’s not just going to win. It’s going to be an electoral landslide.
I'm not a gambler, so I don't advise betting on anything. I prefer strategic certainty before taking action; if I can't arrange a Xanatos gambit where either "success" or "failure" are equally acceptable, I simply don't play.

That being said, the odds right now are about as generous as they are likely to be before Trump exposes Creepy Joe in the debates. So, while I would not recommend betting the house, it's probably a very good time to put down $10 or so for post-election bragging rights. Because the guy is right, the polls are not only broken, they are entirely irrelevant at this point.

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58 Comments:

Blogger Akulkis July 21, 2020 5:46 AM  

I have never seen, in all my life, a political poll published in news (in print or on air) which overestimated the support for any candidate or proposal opposed by the left, and likewise, I have never seen any political poll published which underestimated the support for any candidate or proposal supported by the left.

Even the most honest of media outlets consistently slide the scale 10% towards the left.

Blogger Shimshon July 21, 2020 5:53 AM  

Thanks to Vox's early and confident prediction of a Trump victory, while it was still 2015, I bet $1 with an old friend that Trump would get the nomination, and doubled down to $2 for the election. The other side of that bet was good-natured the entire time, until The Day After, when the bitterness and anger came out, and continues to this day.

He did honor the bet, but I had to wait months, through his hopes that first the Electoral College and then Congress would do something, anything, to make it stop. I still have his personally signed and very offensively decorated two $1 bills to this day, and always will.

Blogger doctrev July 21, 2020 6:09 AM  

There was an incredibly firm bet at better than 2.5:1 in 2016, and I wouldn't regard anyone who missed it as any kind of gambling or political expert. It's far more responsible for a family man to not gamble with his family's future, though, so you're definitely doing the right thing.

One thing is for sure: the idea of a political betting market is a wizarding scam that can easily be subverted by anyone with a few million to spare, because 2016 was all about the "inevitable" image being propped up by wizards. And anyone can easily take advantage of the newest iteration. You don't even have to be placing huge money on side bets like you did four years ago: just bet the farm on Trump. If he loses... well, you have bigger problems.

That said, I haven't wagered anything because the EU cracked down hard on foreign betting, plus I think all bets will be called off when something happens to Biden.

Blogger Dire Badger July 21, 2020 6:20 AM  

Yup, I made almost 35,000 dollars on trump winning the primaries in 2016, and almost 50k on his winning the election... and I only bet 5000 dollars on the primary and 15 on the election.

I made serious bank, and expect to do so again, although I a betting I get worse than 1 to 3 odds... it's a gimme.

Blogger rikjames.313 July 21, 2020 6:53 AM  

You can't support Trump in the area around Metro Detroit. You will be get fired, kicked off any government boards, church boards, children will be threatened. No bumper stickers or yard signs, your car or house windows will get smashed.

I want to believe that will lead to stealth votes, except our Biden Campaign cochair governor is pushing for mail in ballots. That means the democratic SEIU union members will see anyone who votes for Trump, and they will likely toss Trump votes.

Somewhat related-- A local school bard president violated the approved spin on Covid and the media is going full throttle to have him revoked. Wall to wall stories, some stations have been doing a total of 4 minutes against him.

https://www.wxyz.com/news/coronavirus/parents-call-for-removal-of-northville-school-board-president-following-his-comments-downplaying-covid-19

Blogger JD Curtis July 21, 2020 7:02 AM  

I'd be very surprised if the debates actually happen. Creepy Joe seems less lucid with each passing day

Blogger Doktor Jeep July 21, 2020 7:18 AM  

In related news, it appears the libertarian party has gone full retard.

Blogger phil g July 21, 2020 7:51 AM  

They've long been full retard, you just recently noticed.

Blogger ScottC July 21, 2020 7:53 AM  

I wish Trump would tweet "They're hidin' Biden" as often as he tweets "law and order."

Blogger Mr.MantraMan July 21, 2020 7:58 AM  

"But twitter says", one of the twittercons I follow must have gotten a bad batch of his brain joose since he has gone twitter native the last few weeks and has Trump in manacles by Feb 2021.

My hunch is that twitter is a gaslight operation with a few thousand professional gassers liking one another's tweets and being amplified by twitter inc. and the literally insane which I know of a couple of them personally, all day long "OMB." I'm not joking about the mental illness either.

Blogger Akulkis July 21, 2020 8:08 AM  

>> it appears the libertarian party has gone full retard.

It was inevitable, as it's baked into the cake.

Blogger Ransom Smith July 21, 2020 8:16 AM  

In related news, it appears the libertarian party has gone full retard.
Has gone
Like they weren't already there and made it a home with rugs and everything.

Blogger jkmack July 21, 2020 8:43 AM  

I fully expect the biden campaign to request a video debate, due to covid 19, and for the Joe biden video to be deep faked.

Blogger Haus frau July 21, 2020 8:47 AM  

What are the odds of democrats replacing Biden at the convention? I desperately want to see him debate Trump and yet I can't believe they would allow that to happen. Biden makes Hillary look downright spritely.
That said, they don't really have anyone of standing to replace Biden with. The Clinton faction gutted all the promising talent ahead of the 2016 election to clear the way for Hillary. Since 2016 the party has moved so far left their "young" talent are all angry blacks and browns with no crossover appeal to normal white people. Good times.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 21, 2020 8:50 AM  

rikjames.313 wrote:A local school bard ...
That's a fun typo. It sounds very traditional to have bards instructing the young about our heroic past, rather than globohomo wokescolds instructing them in evil.
Doktor Jeep wrote:In related news, it appears the libertarian party has gone full retard.
Dude, when were they not? The details keep changing, but their essential retard nature never changes.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 21, 2020 8:53 AM  

rikjames.313 wrote:A local school bard ...
That's a fun typo. It sounds very traditional to have bards instructing the young about our heroic past, rather than globohomo wokescolds instructing them in evil.
Doktor Jeep wrote:In related news, it appears the libertarian party has gone full retard.
Dude, when were they not? The details keep changing, but their essential retard nature never changes.

Blogger Damelon Brinn July 21, 2020 8:54 AM  

One problem the establishment has is that their strategy for four years has been, "Don't you wish all this drama would go away? Give up on Trump, and you can have normal back." Hence the push to stretch out the virus crisis. Anything to make people feel stressed and uncertain.

But at the same time, they desperately need to get their indoctrination centers opened back up and running full speed, from the schools to the theaters. They need to get the daily life of consumers back to normal, but without feeling normal. Enter mask mandates, so people can go back to work and school to be indoctrinated, yet always have that reminder that we're technically in crisis.

It's hard to see that working for four months. I was at a bar the other night, and no one was wearing a mask. People shook hands and mingled normally. Yet everyone on the TV was masked, even in ridiculous situations where they were obviously near no one. They're trying way too hard. Seems like it'll be hard for people not to notice that as the death numbers continue to drop or stagnate.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 21, 2020 8:57 AM  

Mr.MantraMan wrote:... one of the twittercons I follow must have gotten a bad batch of his brain joose since he has gone twitter native the last few weeks and has Trump in manacles by Feb 2021.
If Trump were fool enough to allow the Left a victory this November, that would be the inevitable result. Pray that Trump is neither a fool nor a nice guy.

Blogger urthshu July 21, 2020 9:27 AM  

I've never been into betting at all but a Trump win is the only one I would take. Too bad you can't in the US.

Blogger Ransom Smith July 21, 2020 9:44 AM  

Assuming Biden is even the nominee. I'm skeptical honestly. And I know people will deride Kanye, but if he gets on enough ballots he's a major threat to old sniffer Joe.

Blogger VFM Bear July 21, 2020 9:55 AM  

Anyone have a betting site they could recommend that accepts election bets from folks outside the US?

Blogger Section 8A July 21, 2020 9:58 AM  

I know what will happen. SJW's will double down. There's even a book on it.

Blogger Jeroth July 21, 2020 10:02 AM  

I won a couple thousand at something like 1:15 odds on Trump in 2016. I, too, am not a gambler, but that was like taking candy from a baby. Trump is going to win again, but the odds aren't nearly as delicious this time around, so I'll have to pass.

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants July 21, 2020 10:07 AM  

In December 2015,I made 3 bets with friends. I won $10,500 when Trump won.
I'd be ok getting 10 grand, again.

Blogger Krymneth July 21, 2020 10:10 AM  

ScottC wrote:I wish Trump would tweet "They're hidin' Biden" as often as he tweets "law and order."

Trump is holding his punches back; he doesn't want to knock Biden out before he is officially confirmed.

It isn't necessarily a catastrophe for Trump if the Democrats nominate someone who isn't obviously suffering from dementia, but there's other reasons to prefer the biggest win possible above and beyond the margin of fraud, so if the Democrats are going to offer that on a silver platter, why not take it?

In the meantime, consider the needs of the Democrats to A: replace Biden with someone, anyone other than him and B: to lie in the polls and pump up Biden and make his victory look inevitable. Trump is letting B tie their hands w.r.t. A; if Biden is so far ahead in the fake polls, then how can they justify shenanigans to swap him out at the convention? Look at how strong their lies say he is as a candidate!

Until the convention, it serves Trump to let the Democrats lie in the polls and pump him up as an inevitability; with every pump they lock themselves in to him that much harder. Let them stew in their own festering lies. Why should he rescue them from that?

Blogger Darren July 21, 2020 10:15 AM  

...but ...but Nevada is supposed to be a solid Blue State!

Blogger rikjames.313 July 21, 2020 10:36 AM  

Ominous Cowherd wrote:rikjames.313 wrote:A local school bard ...

That's a fun typo. It sounds very traditional to have bards instructing the young about our heroic past, rather than globohomo wokescolds instructing them in evil.

.


Funny.

I use my personal tablet here and type. Not going to use my firm laptop, with dragon, for any of my fun posting.

It does make me realize how bad my typing has gotten. Plus our office email now suggests responses based on the message content.

I think traditional schooling subjects are about to become less important.

Blogger Damelon Brinn July 21, 2020 10:36 AM  

My hunch is that twitter is a gaslight operation with a few thousand professional gassers liking one another's tweets and being amplified by twitter inc.

Basically. Ordinary people don't use Twitter, or they rarely post. But the media all have Twitter accounts and post constantly. So it's sort of an aggregator where the 2%, mostly Jewish media, pass ideas around and get them trending so they know what the narrative is for the day. It wouldn't matter at all if it stayed there, but then they take whatever scum rises to the top and broadcast it everywhere else.

Blogger Valley Forge Patriot July 21, 2020 11:13 AM  

Right now, I see the Communist/Democratic nominee with 227 Electoral Votes (EV), all coming from diehard Blue states, while Trump has 182 EV. One thing for sure, Trump cannot lose Fla or TX. If he loses one, his odds are long, if he loses both, well, game over. Here is my current take on the upcoming election, YMMV: https://www.270towin.com/maps/7DJgJ

Blogger Nostromo July 21, 2020 11:14 AM  

In Florida, every other street corner has Trump/MAGA items for sale. It's for sale in the stores. In Kentucky, I see 1 or 2 Biden stickers a month! The Trump stuff, while not as prevalent as Florida, is still pretty overwhelming. Biden is Jeb Bush with dementia.

Blogger Morrisfactor July 21, 2020 11:33 AM  

I wonder if the DNC will even let Biden join ANY debates; will keep him buttoned up down in his basement...

Blogger rmb177 July 21, 2020 11:48 AM  

For anyone who wants to bet on US elections (from the US), you can do so at PredictIt.org. They have a special permission from the CFTC as the data from the site is used for researching political trading markets. The max you can bet on any market is $850.

I've made a nice chunk of change from that site the last several years.

Blogger "William Berke" July 21, 2020 12:29 PM  


Historically these types of philosophy have been beneficial and remedied by excommunication or exile, among other acts.

Blogger Revelation Means Hope July 21, 2020 12:48 PM  

Betting on Predictit in 2016 helped pay my family's vacation trip to Hawaii.
Thank you, clueless Millenials.

Blogger Akulkis July 21, 2020 2:00 PM  

>> MMV: https://www.270towin.com/maps/7DJgJ

You're basing that on media polling which is ALWAYS at over-estimates the Democrat's votes by over 5%, and in this election cycle, is probably overestimating Democrat support by 20% or more because so many people are afraid to admit to some unknown person that they're going to vote for Trump, out of fear that they will be fired, and possibly even have their house burned down.

Anonymous Anonymous July 21, 2020 2:37 PM  

Are we still thinking they’re going to allow a normal election?? The push for mail-in; the preplanned 2nd, 3rd, perpetual waves to discourage in-person voting (especially effective on the elderly who’d likely be more Trump-leaning); some areas pushing for felon, prisoner, and immigrant voting rights; an established network of roaming black bloc and affiliates to threaten major sites and voting locations; pre-established narrative conditioning in the public eye to view any organization opposing the black bloc gangsterism as the ever elusive rapscallion spooky white nationalists; and Hollywood celebs already planting stories that pre-rig public perceptions to view any national guard sent to protect voting as in fact rigging elections while also claiming that Trump will refuse to step down and engage in a coup. Either way neither side will admit defeat and both will accuse the other of cheating.

Blogger Watchu talkin bout Willis July 21, 2020 3:08 PM  

Meanwhile in Ohio, pedo-face anti-Trumper Matt Borges has been arrested in a bribery case.
https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200721/ohio-bribery-case-who-are-larry-householder-matt-borges-others-arrested

Blogger FSL July 21, 2020 3:30 PM  

I've been telling my friends, there won't BE any debates. Biden can't be legitimizing Trump by debating him. It's simply not going to happen.

Blogger Ska_Boss July 21, 2020 5:22 PM  

I put my money where my mouth is in 2016 and won bigly, I intend to do the same this time around. Although the MSM is resorting to its usual antics and parlor tricks, the odds are lower.

Blogger Joe Smith July 21, 2020 5:36 PM  

@FSL I'm betting Biden will debate Trump. Old school Democrats haven't caught up to the fact that the media is unable to shield them sufficiently anymore. The MSM tries, but it's just not possible in the internet age. He'll go in thinking that even if he makes some gaffes (read: is exposed as a dementia patient), the media will be able to hold him together for public consumption.

If he doesn't, then he's conceding the point a priori. The media won't be able to save him from that either--though, of course, it will try.

Blogger A trite re-white July 21, 2020 6:09 PM  

This coming Sunday is my birthday, please God and Trump,all I want for my birthday is for the Storm to be unleashed. All the those Pedos hunted down and a general rebuilding of faith and good will.

Blogger Damelon Brinn July 21, 2020 7:08 PM  

Are we still thinking they’re going to allow a normal election?

I've been saying they'll try to find a way to delay it, hoping a Trump-killer will come along. That's been their strategy ever since he was elected, after all: ignore the normal process of building a better platform and vetting better candidates, instead begging Mueller or someone else to take him out. They still haven't changed that mindset, and I'm not sure they can.

Blogger Steve Canyon July 21, 2020 9:31 PM  

Trump's stacked his team with fighters. People who don't or won't fight are fired.

If people who fight are holding back, there's a pretty good reason why. I expect the cry of havoc and dogs of war slipping in September when the campaign really heats up.

Blogger Dire Badger July 21, 2020 10:04 PM  

In Other News, I am done with the mormons. Utah's going to be Blue for the first time ever, because the new church president (and the last, Nazi president Monson) is as converged as the Google CEO.

It's sickening listening to him pandering to the left like other cucks, and pushing the 12th article of faith like it's the new 10 commandments. It's Helmuth Hubener all over again, and as far as I am concerned, pushes them permanently into the 'church of Satan' Camp along with the pedopope and race-baiting protestants

I expect to find the first presidency is owned by the purple Mafia within 10 years.

Blogger VFM #7634 July 21, 2020 11:06 PM  

Another factor is that Corona-chan has peaked and will be on the decline from here on out.

Blogger Cappuccinobear July 21, 2020 11:07 PM  

I'm in metro Detroit and I'm a union ford worker. I love telling people i vote for trump and will again. I dont have a lot of work friends, and the vibrant community and self hating liberals here definitely dont go out of their way to hear me out, even though they are the ones who bring up the politics.

When we returned to work with required masks, I refused to wear the ford approved mask. I had to get a doctors note for a personally selected mask, after swearing at a vibrant area manager for harassment about the mask. As a requirement for work, so I dont get sent out on medical leave, I wear my personal mask on my chin. When asked to cover my face correctly, I hold up an open bottle of water and say I cant drink with the mask on. I've done this every day since mid may. I'd let them fire me just to legally fight it, but I have a 4 year old and another girl due in November. I'm choosing my battles, but yet I survive and thrive. Farmington livonia area here, but inside ford is much more vibrant than the surrounding area.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 22, 2020 8:38 AM  

Dire Badger wrote:It's Helmuth Hubener all over again, and as far as I am concerned, pushes them permanently into the 'church of Satan' Camp ...
We already knew that, of course. 1 John 4:2-3. The ``Jesus'' they imagine is a created being, not the Logos who was with God at the start.

Blogger RedJack July 22, 2020 10:26 AM  

Today you’re taking your job, career, business and life in your hands to admit anywhere, to anyone, you support Trump.

Which is why I never comment on politics at work. Haven't since one of my former employees called HR because I was "privileged" to send my kids to parochial school.

Note former employee.
I was fortunate that person was already on the way out the door, and I had documentation.

Of course, my team blue inlaws have said repeatedly that if Trump wins, they will demand each and every employee sign an affidavit stating who they voted for, and fire the team red people for hate crimes. When I point out that is expressly illegal, I was told "Not if it is a hate crime!"

In small ways, team red is fighting back. Probably to late, but it is paving the way for the next movement to take the stage.

Blogger TruthsGotMyBack July 22, 2020 12:46 PM  

As long as they continue to believe their own propaganda we will continue to crush.

Blogger TheSickManOfEurope July 22, 2020 12:48 PM  

25. Krymneth said....

"...Trump is holding his punches back; he doesn't want to knock Biden out before he is officially confirmed...."

You are 100% right....Trump is playing his Game and it will be a massive landslide.
Something that everyone forgot is Ghislaine Maxwell.
She is most likely singing like a canary...and naming names.
Prominent Dems (the Clintons and company) and Trump hatin' Hollywood Liberals will most likely be outed as paedos....just before the election.
And Trump knows it!

Blogger Linden Arden July 22, 2020 1:36 PM  

I worry that the "polls are wrong" narrative can be bad luck in these times, its dangerous to assume he isn't behind given the relentless attacks he has had to endure. On the other hand, it is quite possible that the polls are so unreliable that the media cannot accurately predict what is going on and this explains the absolute tizzy the Left is in by burning down the Country for the last 60 days. I think the Left is also shocked his black and latino support has not wavered. I am so confused at the moment, I don't know what to believe anymore.

Blogger Damelon Brinn July 22, 2020 4:54 PM  

For Trump to be behind, let alone behind by the numbers the pollsters are putting out, he would have to have lost millions of voters. Who would that be? Who was willing to stick out his neck and vote Trump in 2016 when even many of his own supporters weren't totally sure he was serious about this whole president thing, right in the heat of pussy-grab-gate, but would abandon him now, after he's fought to keep every promise and slapped the Democrats and the media around the way we always wished a Republican would? The kind of people who would turn on him now are the kind of people who never would have voted for him in the first place.

I just don't see it. They claim the numbers have shifted that much, yet they don't present a reason. There is no mass of Biden Republicans the way there were Reagan Democrats--again, the Biden Republicans were already NeverTrump in 2016. There might be some who stayed home or voted their party in 2016 and now they're thinking they'll vote D if it's someone less obviously evil than Clinton, but millions? No way.

Blogger OvergrownHobbit July 22, 2020 5:48 PM  

The polls exist to provide plausible cover for the fraud. For reference are the Red Tide mid-terms that were successfully turned into a blue trickle by cheating. Orange County,CA went "blue" thanks to vote harvesting.

Don't talk to pollsters.

Blogger Akulkis July 23, 2020 7:45 AM  

>> Of course, my team blue inlaws have said repeatedly that if Trump wins, they will demand each and every employee sign an affidavit stating who they voted for, and fire the team red people for hate crimes. When I point out that is expressly illegal, I was told "Not if it is a hate crime!"


I would remind them that *hateful* people do things like burn down the businesses of those they hate.

Blogger Unknown July 24, 2020 2:42 PM  

@Damelon Brinn
It surprises me to see someone in this sphere say things such as this.
Trump has greatly disappointed many who were his most ardent supporters, and done this consistently and throughout his term as president. This includes both common citizens and those in his cabinet. How he treated Sessions, Bannon, Tillerson, etc. and seemed to turn towards Kushner over Miller is appalling.
And for those of us (and there are many) who aren't fond of what appears to be an 'Israel-first' foreign policy rather than 'America-first' (Trump would certainly NEVER dare do anything against Israeli interests!), the lack of a wall, expansion of H1-B programs, etc., Trump has unfortunately been little more than a symbol. It's no wonder that the likes of Ann Coulter are so harsh with him.
From the very first pardon of Trump's term, which was Shlomo Rubashkin, a Kosher butcher owner who was convicted of hiring illegal immigrants (!) through the Syria bombings and the Soleimani assassination, there has been very little for me to celebrate as far as Trump is concerned, and just because I happen to despise a lot of the people that despise Trump doesn't mean that I plan on supporting him again.
Yes, I did vote for him in 2016, but I can't say at the moment that it is something I am proud of.

Blogger Akulkis July 25, 2020 9:44 AM  

>> Yes, I did vote for him in 2016, but I can't say at the moment that it is something I am proud of.


Do you have a better plan for 2020?

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