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Friday, August 07, 2020

This won't age well

The Economist makes its predictions for November:
Chance of winning the electoral college:
Biden 91%
Trump 9%

Chance of winning the most votes:
Biden 98%
Trump 2%

Estimated electoral college votes:
Biden 357
Trump 181
Just wanted to make sure we preserved it for the record.

Labels: ,

65 Comments:

Blogger lazlo azavaar August 07, 2020 11:04 AM  

Gotta love how absolutely nothing has been learned.

Blogger Ibelin August 07, 2020 11:05 AM  

Copy and paste job from 2016?

Btw economy is starting to come back. 1.8 million jobs added in July

Blogger Shane Bradman August 07, 2020 11:22 AM  

Who else is looking forward to The Young Turks meltdown part 2?

Blogger RandyB August 07, 2020 11:26 AM  

How many of the Economist's readers understand the difference between "predictive" and "prescriptive"?

Blogger Ray - SoCal August 07, 2020 11:28 AM  

Sad how Left the Economist has become, it used to be less biased.

Blogger SemiSpook37 August 07, 2020 11:28 AM  

Caught the tail end of Tim Pool's livestream last night. Mentioned that MSNBC had made similar predictions, and then they referenced a report that the DC journalism bubble still hasn't made ANY adjustments in terms of their reporting. Actually said that it's WORSE than 2016.

The TrumpSlide is ON.

Blogger Crew August 07, 2020 11:30 AM  

Clearly trying to compete with the LA Times from 2016.

They must still believe there are a few people out there who believe their lies.

Blogger Brad August 07, 2020 11:35 AM  

Looking at their articles on the web, I can’t believe I used to read that magazine thinking that I was well informed. Now I see nothing but one piece of propaganda after another. Was it always like that and I just didn’t see it?

Blogger Jeroth August 07, 2020 11:41 AM  

The betting markets are far closer now than they were in 2016. Predictit has Trump at 42 cents and Biden at 58. In 2016 I accumulated shares for Trump between 7 and 15 cents.

Blogger VD August 07, 2020 11:45 AM  

Was it always like that and I just didn’t see it?

Pretty much. It's just that the neoliberal globalist approach is now an obvious failure.

Blogger Jon D. August 07, 2020 11:55 AM  

"Well traditionally black population votes 99% democrat and over the last 4 elections we saw massive spikes in turnout in 2008-2012 so we'll make sure to account for that and assume they're going to turn out big now since it's historical data..."

They seriously make polls like this and don't factor in things like "it was an outlier cuz there was a black man running in 2008 and now it's the crustiest old white man ever running".

The black turnout will be the lowest in decades. Watch.

Blogger Stilicho August 07, 2020 11:58 AM  

Kind of dimmishes your faith in their ability to interpet statistical data, doesn't it?

Blogger Glen Sprigg August 07, 2020 12:01 PM  

I think the people at the Economist should be awarded some kind of Nobel Prize for Physics, since they've obviously mastered extra-dimensional traveling. That's the only way they could actually have found numbers like that, in Backworld.

Blogger Jazzmanblue August 07, 2020 12:10 PM  

I still don't see how Biden will even be the nominee of the Democrat Party. There will be a change made at the convention; expect to see an all female ticket for the Democrats. That said, if BS was music, The Economist would be a brass band.

Blogger Crew August 07, 2020 12:11 PM  

@11: I dunno, Jon D. Surely quite a few will turn out to vote for Kanye!

Blogger Cary August 07, 2020 12:13 PM  

To put in perspective how extreme these predictions are, that electoral college total would imply Trump losing the following states that he won in 2016 (% margin)

MI (0.2%), PA (0.7%), WI (0.8%), FL (1.2%), AZ (3.6%), NC (3.7%), OH (8.1%), and IA (9.4%)
While again winning GA (5.1%) and TX (9.0%)

This is a Bidenslide prediction and a shift of something like 8-10% overall in vote from Trump to Biden from his performance vs Hillary.

Trump could lose. I don't expect it and think he will ultimately outperform 2016, but this is laughable. 357 electoral votes is better than Obama did against Mitt (332) and barely below what Obama got vs McCain (365).

Blogger VFM #7634 August 07, 2020 12:17 PM  

Wonder how they reconcile that with Rasmussen consistently showing Trump slightly ahead of Obama in 2012 on average, taking day-to-day fluctuations into account. And how Trump has recovered his footing with corona in decline now.

Copy and paste job from 2016?

Btw economy is starting to come back. 1.8 million jobs added in July


It'll be even better in August with the virus on the way out finally.

Blogger Steve Canyon August 07, 2020 12:23 PM  

I asked magic 8 ball if Trump will win. It said "Without a doubt".

I strongly suspect my predictive model is far more accurate than theirs.

Blogger Crew August 07, 2020 12:25 PM  

Perhaps the Economist has been read into all the cheating the Democrats are planning on!

Blogger furor kek tonicus ( irregularly and inconsistently appended Sarc tag ) August 07, 2020 12:31 PM  

kind of increases my faith in their willingness to lie.

Blogger Jeff aka Orville August 07, 2020 12:47 PM  

At least Biden will be spared the misery of knowing he lost the election, unlike Cankles. Heck, Joe might even grace us with an acceptance speech.

Blogger Geir Balderson August 07, 2020 12:57 PM  

Biden is on fire!!!! He might come out of his bunker to fight the Russians at the outskirts of his town. Oh, wait wrong historical reference about a megalomaniac that destroyed his Country by his desire for power and glory! A man that had no real connection to the citizens. A deluded poltroon that brought disaster.

Blogger Gallant August 07, 2020 12:59 PM  

What's tricky - as that 'stack of slow-talking snark masquerading as a man' Sam Harris mentioned once, that while people are terrorized against speaking out, they will have a chance to go into a private little booth and as scared misinformed people privately vote for trump.

I received an SMS message I assume was polling, asking for: Press 1 for Trump, press 2 for Biden, 3 for Undecided. If I were a leftist I'd have no trouble piling on pressing "2". I sure would not admit to one of these people I'm for Trump.

I can't predict the future wrt who is going to win; but they should maybe contrive some 'study' on what % of people who would vote for Trump skew out of becoming samples due to the current environment.

Blogger Unknown August 07, 2020 1:00 PM  

Me too, used to get it up to 2005, gave it up afterwards because needed to raise kids, abd it was too time consuming to read. Tried to get back into it recently but couldn't stomach it.

Blogger crescent wrench August 07, 2020 1:12 PM  

Nothing says "impending Democrat victory" like the elderly and suburban Karens running the country out of guns because their local Democrats refuse to quell deadly rioting.

I wonder if they'll finally abandon post-modernism as a failed philosophy once they fail to force their twisted ideology to be reality for a second time.

Blogger urthshu August 07, 2020 1:18 PM  

Notice how Democrats never say they're embarrassed to have Trump as president anymore? DNC said hold my beer and watch this

Blogger ZhukovG August 07, 2020 1:22 PM  

Do they believe that predictions like this will suppress the pro-Trump vote? I suspect it will have the opposite effect.

Ad Victoriam, Deo Vindice, Ave Caesar Trump!

Blogger Balazs Varga August 07, 2020 1:22 PM  

That is totally bogus numbers. Even if they cheat and you all know they will, those seem very bogus.

They said the same the previous times.

Blogger B August 07, 2020 1:23 PM  

If the democrats succeed in their push for mail-in voting, there will be massive election fraud. Such fraud has not been accounted for in the usual polls.

Perhaps the Economist is figuring in the votes of the dead, the moved-out-of-state, the illegal aliens and, of course, the legal aliens. Then of course there will be a Biden landslide (assuming Biden will be the democrats' ultimate selection for POTUS).

Blogger APL August 07, 2020 1:23 PM  

Apologies for off topic post. But maybe one to be filed under "Every single time".

Back in 2016 there was a bit of a controversy in the UK about the BBC advertising for ethnic only positions. This guy, Michael Foster is quoted as saying "I'm white. I'm not upset'. about it.

Guess what his wiki says about him?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Foster_(agent)

Blogger Br1cht August 07, 2020 1:32 PM  

Let´s hope that the "middlemen" don´t succeed. I rarely laugh out loud when watching the dumb box but the God-Emperor´s speech made my day.

Blogger bramley says "Enoch was right" August 07, 2020 1:43 PM  

Trust them to be economical in their predictions. How generous to give Trump a 2% chance of a landslide!

Blogger cecilhenry August 07, 2020 1:43 PM  

'The Economist':

All facts, no truth.

Read the Economist to know your enemy, how they think, and how they network.

You can see it in the magazine. Never pay for it though!!

Blogger Valar Addemmis August 07, 2020 1:44 PM  

@14 "There will be a change made at the convention"

The change needs to be after the convention. If it's at the convention, Bernie's people will burn the city to the ground if he's not the nominee. The DNC has history, here, if not a direct analogue.

It needs to be rushed and last minute to get around the Bernie problem. That's why they're going through the work of laying the groundwork for "no debates or appearances during the general campaign", so they can keep him out of the public eye until the inevitable last minute replacement.

I suspect one could suss out a lot of the timeline of the plan by looking at individual state policies on when names can be changed on the ballot.

Blogger kurt9 August 07, 2020 1:45 PM  

The Economist was really good in the 80's. Its decline started in '95 when Bill Emmott, a mediocre journalist, took over as Chief Editor. He left in '02. But that damage was done. The Economist has slowly drifted left over the past 20 years. They are also very "internationalist", meaning that their writers cannot possibly understand how people prefer to associated (economically as well as personally) with people of shared background and cultural values. Hence, their inability to understand "nationalism".

Blogger BalancedTryteOperators August 07, 2020 1:55 PM  

Even if it is a correct prediction based on justified true belief, the inability for the conductors of this poll to distinguish between prescriptive and predictive means that there is room for doubt.

Blogger Dr. J August 07, 2020 2:07 PM  

Pretty lousy proofreading - they reversed the names on those predictions.

Blogger tublecane August 07, 2020 2:12 PM  

I realize this is just propaganda, but it's dumb propaganda. Truly dumb. Like, how much more dumb could this be?

None. None more.

Blogger lowercaseb August 07, 2020 2:13 PM  

I wish I was still making the money I was making in 2016. I would be cleaning up this year once all the election shenanigans get cleared up after election day.

Blogger Ska_Boss August 07, 2020 2:21 PM  

The betting odds tell a different story.

Blogger Joe Smith August 07, 2020 2:50 PM  

They must still believe there are a few people out there who believe their lies.

They're frantically attempting to control the narrative, but this crop of social engineers is too stupid to think of new ways. So they just mindlessly reuse old methods that don't work anymore. Until another Bernays shows up to revamp their methods, what they've got now is all they'll have.

Blogger Wayne August 07, 2020 2:50 PM  

Everyone inside DC expects the same perceived outcome as 2016. Everyone outside of DC expects a repeat of 2016.

Blogger Yukichi Sensei August 07, 2020 2:51 PM  

The Economist was always Neo-Liberal, Libertarian, Globalhomo, Free Market Imperialism. However, Trump (Plus China) broke them. They cannot understand why they would not bend the knee.

2016 to now broke a decent news source (with a heavy ideological bias) to a wail machine.

Blogger Jeroth August 07, 2020 3:27 PM  

@30 I'm pretty sure Wikipedia is going to start memory holing the "early life" section. They already changed Magnus Hirschfeld from "Jewish physician" to "German physician".

Blogger Br1cht August 07, 2020 3:53 PM  

APL wrote:Apologies for off topic post. But maybe one to be filed under "Every single time".

Back in 2016 there was a bit of a controversy in the UK about the BBC advertising for ethnic only positions. This guy, Michael Foster is quoted as saying "I'm white. I'm not upset'. about it.

Guess what his wiki says about him?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Foster_(agent)

Every time.

Blogger Troushers August 07, 2020 4:14 PM  

In 2016 I could get 8 to 1 odds against Trump. Now, even with the polling, the professionals won't go below 2 to 1 in favour. The betting shops have learned, because their livelihood depends on it. Pollsters, media... not so much.

Blogger Reader August 07, 2020 4:37 PM  

You can't write Econimist without the "con". This Beast System is one big circus show. Now with the Sharia Masks, we are no longer permitted to be mere spectators, we are forced to be active performers in this global farce just to simply carry out our normal, daily activities. They have succeeded in corrupting literally every aspect of life, even breathing, for the vast majority of people.

That the people have complied so eagerly and willingly to having their lives and livelihoods completely and indefinitely disrupted tells them they can do anything they want, without the slightest backlash. We shall see if they are correct or if they have alarmed and awakened the silent, sleeping majority into a stampeding herd by November 3rd so that no amount of lies and voter fraud can hold back the Trumpslide. God willing, may the latter be the case.

Blogger Damelon Brinn August 07, 2020 4:47 PM  

The black turnout will be the lowest in decades.

That's why they're pushing so hard for remote voting. In the past, Democrats would drive around to black neighborhoods, often using black churches as staging points, and offer to drive groups to the polls. But that's a hassle. They'll get a lot more "votes" if they can just go into black churches and homes and cast votes for everyone there at once. They won't even have to get up.

Blogger RadixMalorum August 07, 2020 4:53 PM  

It could be that they're gaslighting people to accept the results of their planned voter fraud campaign in November. "See we didn't cheat all the polls supported the results!".

Blogger Taylor? August 07, 2020 5:29 PM  

I'm counting on the price dropping for the GE once creepy uncle Joe announces his VP pick, which will of course be a strong independent woman who is preferably of color. Wish I could get shares at 7-15 cents!

Blogger Doom August 07, 2020 6:03 PM  

I don't know. If I were a betting man, I'd bet it ages as well as Hillary, Biden, milk, and fishhead stew.

Wait!

Blogger James Dixon August 07, 2020 6:45 PM  

> The Economist makes its predictions for November:

I wonder who they're trying to convince. Their entire audience is already made up of true believers.

> I suspect one could suss out a lot of the timeline of the plan by looking at individual state policies on when names can be changed on the ballot.

Any state that is going to go for Biden will let them change it after the fact. A vote for Biden will be counted as a generic Democratic vote.

Blogger Jason the Gentleman August 07, 2020 6:49 PM  

@Doom - Speaking of betting, anyone know how we can bet on the results of this election?

...then again, considering the amount of fraud that will go into this, even if one betted on Trump and won, the betting house would probably try to withhold paying out due to the cries of foul coming from teh establishment, so one may not find it possible to ever collect their winnings....hmmm...

Blogger cecilhenry August 07, 2020 6:59 PM  

@ 45:

Yeah, I just saw this clip today.

Active hostility endlessly, and then fake bewilderment at the reaction

This kind of activism and hatred goes on ALL THE TIME, endlessly.

https://archive.org/details/jews-andew-joyce-immigration-as-hostility-to-Whites

Blogger Wild Ape August 07, 2020 8:12 PM  

Woo Hoo!!!! I'll get two mugs to catch their tears when they start crying this time!

Blogger Akulkis August 07, 2020 8:32 PM  

>> It could be that they're gaslighting people to accept the results of their planned voter fraud campaign in November. "See we didn't cheat all the polls supported the results!".

That's their plan EVERY election.

Blogger My 1 millionth internet profile August 07, 2020 8:33 PM  

The Economist used to have pretty good foreigner reporters covering areas the MSM never even mentioned. They may still have some who actually investigate and report facts, I haven't read it in years.

Anything they printed that remotely involved opinions or "analysis" was always utterly toilet.

Blogger James Dixon August 07, 2020 10:43 PM  

> ...anyone know how we can bet on the results of this election?

https://www.predictit.org/

Or you can go to Vegas and bet it there. I don't know if there are any other places in the US where it's legal or not.

Blogger JamesB.BKK August 08, 2020 3:20 AM  

It's likely. The Economist has always pretended that central banks and left-central planners such as the IMF - whose founding purpose has not existed for decades - were legitimate and even helpful in crisis without ever identifying that they were causal. Stooges and gatekeepers always. Like the National Review.

Blogger phunktor August 08, 2020 10:15 AM  

Counter-wizardry appreciated. I advise putting down the palantir.

Blogger phunktor August 08, 2020 10:21 AM  

Amen

Blogger Canadian Warlord August 08, 2020 11:02 AM  

@34. Valar Addemmis
>>>"The change needs to be after the convention. If it's at the convention, Bernie's people will burn the city to the ground if he's not the nominee. The DNC has history, here, if not a direct analogue."
______________________________________________

What about AIPAC? We have not seen them make any bold moves yet, but there is no way they can tolerate Bernie. They are definitely on board with Trump, which, let's be honest, was a part of his win. AIPAC buys candidates in both parties (are the republicrats still a party?), but I think we are looking at the giant split (according to Gilad Atzmon) of worldwide jewish opinion. Leftist (((americans))) versus Israeli sovereignty.

I want to see the Democrat party split apart by AIPAC - that would be glorious. I think they are stuck with Biden no matter what because he is so completely bought and sold. The conventions, the primaries, and how much that old rickety nonsense controls, is a ticking time bomb itself...

Blogger Canada78Bear August 08, 2020 7:30 PM  

Biden's check cleared I see.

They will backtrack their prediction and claim revisions were based on X before election to make it too close to call.
To most they will retain some degree of integrity.

Very much like analyst calls before stock earnings or massive moves to explain reality diverging from their fantasy.

Blogger Jason the Gentleman August 09, 2020 12:53 AM  

Thanks @58! I invested $50 on the God Emperor.

Blogger Trumpeter August 09, 2020 12:01 PM  

No, just better at hiding it.

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