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Thursday, September 17, 2020

Trumpslide 90 percent

 The most reliable model in US presidential politics is showing a near-certain TRUMPSLIDE:

A professor of political science whose controversial election model has correctly called five of the last six U.S. presidential elections says President Trump will win reelection in 2020 in a "landslide." 

Helmut Norpoth, who teaches at Stony Brook University, is giving Trump "a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide," the Long Island, N.Y., school said in a recent press release. 

Norpoth's "Primary Model" has correctly predicted nearly every presidential election since 1996, missing only George Bush's 2000 victory over Al Gore. When the model is "applied to previous elections," Stonybrook said, it "correctly predicts an impressive 25 of the last 27."

Take into account the BLM riots and the observable fact that Creepy Joe Biden suffers from dementia, and the percentage chances of a Trumpslide rise to 300 percent and counting. 

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83 Comments:

Blogger Jpc September 17, 2020 8:06 AM  

Well!
There's gonna be a lot of melt downs.
The people will decide.
And the fun will commence.

Blogger Pratisara September 17, 2020 8:07 AM  

When Joe Biden referred to his administration as "Harris" administration, I knew it was over.

Blogger Jpc September 17, 2020 8:08 AM  

And Biden looks like a husk.
It's wrong on so many levels that he was permitted to get this far.

Blogger Br'er Shaygetz September 17, 2020 8:10 AM  

Thanks, but I'll be white knuckling this ride out to the end. Still a long way to go, countless mail-in ballots to be found in car trunks and waste bins...oh, and we have yet to see how my long dead parents and grandparents will vote this time around.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 17, 2020 8:22 AM  

My low probability WAG is that the D-party bigwigs on K-street have gone "Woke" so as to bring on electoral disaster then point at the communist idiots and blame them hoping to drive out the underclass commie white and black scum to some useless blue state rump political party.

Or it's the Jonestown ending for America, haven't decide which yet.

Blogger rikjames.313 September 17, 2020 8:25 AM  

I really hope everyone is right.

I live near Detroit. Biden is running 2-3 ads an hour here, many of them are really well done. He sounds presidential and is very dignified, one ad features his dead heroic son, he is blaming Trump for bankrupting social security, making covid worse, causing the violence (and Biden will end it)...

Trump's ads do not sound as good.

Out local newscasts devote 5 minutes an hour to how wonderful Biden and Harris are, and evil or stupid Trump is. They literally have played Biden ads as 'news' while the anchors fawn on him.

This week the ABC affiliate had an anchor explain why it is smart that Biden won't do a town hall own their own network, because he works better on CNN

Michigan has mostly open mail in voting, and for the primary this summer there were a bunch of issues with the vote totals and people not in the voter books voting. Our Democratic governor and SoS handwaved it all away.

Hopefully Trump is sitting on some great stuff against Biden he is going to use in October.

Blogger VD September 17, 2020 8:31 AM  

You guys worrying about the mail-in votes don't understand how the system works. Those votes are irrelevant once Trump gets past 270 electoral college votes on Election Night.

Blogger Section 8A September 17, 2020 8:31 AM  

It's going to be a rout, especially as the SJW's have telegraphed the strategy of The Mail In Ballots Will Win 4 Us Narrative. They only know how to lie and project (there are books), and slam the gas pedal to the floor.

They've consistently underestimated DJT, and they're doing it again.

Blogger RandyB September 17, 2020 8:33 AM  

@Br'er Shaygetz

This will be the most honest election in the U. S. in at least a century, if not longer. Fraud is no longer going unopposed. They are staking everything on fraud-by-mail, because their usual avenues have been sufficiently shut down. And the God-Emperor is not outmaneuvered by their plans.

If we know about it, he already knew before we did and has a counter prepared.

Blogger Damelon Brinn September 17, 2020 8:34 AM  

And there's still another 50 days of zombie Biden stumbling over himself, people openly talking about the Harris presidency, Biden's "courageous group of Americans" burning down cities and staging a siege on the White House, chimpouts over every black criminal who gets policed, liberal karens nagging people about masks, and PedoJoe revelations seeping out into the mainstream.

Blogger Meanoldbasterd September 17, 2020 8:37 AM  

Only irrelevant in the legal sense, not in the 4th generation warfare propaganda tool sense

Blogger Some random guy September 17, 2020 8:47 AM  

A Trumpwave.

Blogger Damelon Brinn September 17, 2020 8:55 AM  

The courts have said mail-in ballots have to be postmarked by election day, and in some states still have to be received by then. Democrats won't be able to stuff ballots after election day until they've caught up, except where they control the post office postmarking machine and no one's watching, which seems unlikely now. That was their main strategy, and it's gone.

Blogger Balkan Yankee September 17, 2020 8:55 AM  

Because the only polls that matter are actual elections. Which is what primaries are. And Trump set all-time record highs in numbers of primary votes he won in 2020.

@6: Show me Biden's ground game in Michigan. Because from I what I've read lately, he doesn't have one. Trump does. It's modeled on Obama's 2012 GOTV effort and it is in full swing throughout the country. And the urban riots are only helping turn off suburban voters to the Dems.(Suburban ladies may dislike Trump's style, but when it comes to the protection of their property values, a good number will hold their noses and vote Trump.)

Biden is mailing it in. (Pun intended.) He's flooding the Detroit airwaves because (1) he needs the urban vote to turn out to have any chance of winning and (2) it creates the impression that Biden is running a vigorous campaign when in reality he is not.

As the polls tighten, and they are, Biden will be under tremendous pressure to get the hell out of his basement and campaign. Then come the debates. He has neither the wits nor the stamina for the home stretch.





Blogger doctrev September 17, 2020 8:57 AM  

VD wrote:You guys worrying about the mail-in votes don't understand how the system works. Those votes are irrelevant once Trump gets past 270 electoral college votes on Election Night.

Exactly. Facebook and Twitter plan to block any mention of a Trump victory... but that's the moment the whole country sees them move from treacherously biased to outright seditious. Once November 3rd is over, the President will have a lot more flexibility.

Blogger Brett baker September 17, 2020 8:57 AM  

I think the God-Emperor will win, but electoral fraud will keep it from being declared The Trumpslide.
"Sure, Trump won 325-100 in the electoral college, but Harris won the popular vote by 29 million!"

Blogger Gettimothy September 17, 2020 9:04 AM  

Biden, Hildebeast and Ginsberg dead of old age before October is out; Eisen's playbook color revolution will go option Z.


War to the hilt to follow. My $.02

Blogger DaveD September 17, 2020 9:12 AM  

Remember the post from a couple days ago? The Left knows it will lose and have planted the seeds for a Color Revolution. We need to vote but to be on guard for the rebellion afterwards. Be prepared. They will do anything to try to defeat we the people.

Again, not doom and gloom. Just be prepared for riots everywhere. Remember, Satan is filled with rage because he knows his time is short.

Blogger Tom d September 17, 2020 9:13 AM  

The question remains just how big the Trumpslide will be...both in the popular vote and the electoral college. Its hard to estimate just how unpopular the Harris ticket is - with the DNC completely fractured with the dissatisfied 'Bernie Bros', urban corporate elite, and minority fractions considering either voting 3rd party, not voting, or going full protest vote for the God Emperor. As Biden had a 10-15 point lead going into Iowa and finished a solid 4th (w/ Harris exiting 2 months prior polling at 1%) - it's a reasonable understatement to think current polling is off at least this much. VD has suggested Biden will be a no show for the debates - it will be interesting to observe the impact of the establishment's attempt to claim its 'definitely not dementia.'

Blogger Homesteader September 17, 2020 9:17 AM  

Meanwhile- generator, comms, medical, canned food, water. fuel, lights, heat, plywood (for your windows and doors, as needed) trusted friends, and, of course, ammo and weapons. And, bug-out bags, and a trigger point for evacuation, and a destination to evac to. And, yes, you need to practice with all those things beforehand.

You've got 6 weeks. Plenty of time.

Assume 7 days of chaos in your area. Discuss a "safety committee" on your block with your based neighbors.

Or, just make popcorn, and grab a seat poolside. Either way, it's gonna be interesting come Election Tuesday, since, as Q says, it'll be
" All Assets Deployed."

Blogger Duh September 17, 2020 9:18 AM  

I still haven't seen a single Biden bumper sticker or lawn sign here in Chicago

Blogger Thad Tuiol September 17, 2020 9:18 AM  

How is he polling in the key states of FLA, NC, OH, MICH and WISC.?

Blogger Storm Rhode September 17, 2020 9:20 AM  

If they fail to concede those electoral college votes on election night is what concerns me.

Blogger Maniac September 17, 2020 9:22 AM  

"Thanks, but I'll be white knuckling this ride out to the end."

This. And if he's fortunate enough to win, the peaceful protests will get worse. Stay frosty and stay armed, fellas.

Blogger YIH September 17, 2020 9:39 AM  

The question is what will happen after Election Day. I think Team Biden will cheat like crazy - like Gore post-Election Day 2000. Instead of "butterfly" ballots, the manufactured votes will come from mail. I suspect the courts will have to step in again.

Blogger Br'er Shaygetz September 17, 2020 9:39 AM  

My dearest hope is that you're right. I wouldn't mind Barr walking up to Pelosi with cuffs to make me feel better.😉

Blogger Freeholder September 17, 2020 9:39 AM  

@7 Think about what you are saying. Biden, the democrat is having to spend serious money in Michigan. Michigan has been a solid D state since the Reagan administration.

Blogger Balkan Yankee September 17, 2020 9:42 AM  

Re Voting by Mail: This should help put things in perspective.

http://ace.mu.nu/headlines/archives/Mail%20Vote%20Cheating.pdf

Blogger Damelon Brinn September 17, 2020 9:44 AM  

Eisen's playbook color revolution will go option Z.

Quite possible. There's a divide on the left that's getting clearer every day. Some want to stick to the program of the last century, winning elections when they can, appointing activist judges, and marching through the institutions. The others want to dispense with all that hard work and get on with overthrowing the government, installing their socialist dictatorship, and filling the gulags. TDS has destroyed their patience, and now that they control virtually all corporations and institutions, they don't see why they should wait anymore.

That second group appears to be winning the internal battle. That's why Biden was able to win the nomination in the first place: those people didn't care enough about the election to get behind any particular candidate. They went through the motions and then said screw it. As much as they hate Trump, some of them would almost prefer that he win, because they think that will let them lead the revolution that would rise up against him.

Blogger Doctor Boom September 17, 2020 9:46 AM  

All of the polling in any of the states that matter (PA, MI, NC, WI, FL, etc.) was crap in 2016. There is no reason to believe the polls are going to be any more accurate in 2020 - frankly, much more likely the polls will be *less* accurate in 2020.

Blogger David-2 September 17, 2020 9:48 AM  

I don't know how big a Trumpslide to expect - but consider this piece of evidence from last week in the San Fernando Valley region of Los Angeles in BLUE BLUE California: https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1305333978703028224

Blogger Watchu talkin bout Willis September 17, 2020 10:00 AM  

It's all gaslighting by the media and elite at this point. And let the the progs declare war. Big deal. We're already at war! True Americans are locked and loaded and merely waiting to see the whites (or drugged, teary bloodshot red) of their eyes.

Blogger Fozzy Bear September 17, 2020 10:02 AM  

“ The courts have said mail-in ballots have to be postmarked by election day”
I’ve been paying attention to my mail for a few months, and my question is “what postmarks?” None of my incoming mail is ever postmarked

Blogger Doctor Boom September 17, 2020 10:02 AM  

Yesterday was the first day Rasmussen had Trump ahead of Punxsatawey Joe in their "national" poll (47/46). This despite the fact that Trump was only getting 80% support among "Republicans" and had an almost 10-point lead with "Independents".

In other words, he's actually probably up in this poll by 5-6 (which translates to a 40-42 state Trumpslide) but all of the polls are going to continue to be "adjusted" to show a "horse race" until about 10-days out because by then it's going to be patently obvious even to normie casual low-info voters that one of the "horses" got lost out of the gate.

Blogger MarkyMark September 17, 2020 10:06 AM  

A Trumpslide won't matter that much if the Senate isn't held and the House isn't retaken. BOTH ends of Pennsylvania Avenue must be controlled by Trump and the GOP!

Blogger Ominous Cowherd September 17, 2020 10:18 AM  

Thad Tuiol wrote:How is he polling in the key states of FLA, NC, OH, MICH and WISC.?
How much control does he have over the vote counters in those key states?

He's had four years to focus on key issues like containing election fraud. He does the important stuff quietly, behind the scenes, while everyone focuses on the latest tweet and the latest Q drop. He's a planner. Trump just might be prepared for 3 Nov and the aftermath.

Blogger ZhukovG September 17, 2020 10:28 AM  

@David-2: And from what I heard, they did not set fire to the city, loot businesses and even obeyed traffic lights.

Ad Victoriam, Deo Vindice, Ave Caesar Trump!!

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 17, 2020 10:29 AM  

None of the D-party groups are remotely cool, it would be hard to create a preference cascade for Biden out of that trash. Much easier to print votes

Anonymous Anonymous September 17, 2020 10:32 AM  

Jpc wrote:And Biden looks like a husk.

It's wrong on so many levels that he was permitted to get this far.


It really is pathetic, and a perfect metaphor for our country.

Blogger Damelon Brinn September 17, 2020 10:36 AM  

None of my incoming mail is ever postmarked

Do you get anything with a stamp on it? I rarely do anymore, except for birthday and Christmas cards. Presorted mail, which is pretty much all commercial mail now, doesn't get postmarked.

Blogger rikjames.313 September 17, 2020 10:38 AM  

Ominous Cowherd wrote:Thad Tuiol wrote:How is he polling in the key states of FLA, NC, OH, MICH and WISC.?

How much control does he have over the vote counters in those key states?

He's had four years to focus on key issues like containing election fraud. He does the important stuff quietly, behind the scenes, while everyone focuses on the latest tweet and the latest Q drop. He's a planner. Trump just might be prepared for 3 Nov and the aftermath.


Michigan last month:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/08/20/benson-asked-investigate-detroit-perfect-storm-voting-problems/5616629002/

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/08/24/detroit-august-primary-elections-takeover/3429873001/

https://wbckfm.com/72-of-detroits-mail-in-primary-ballot-counts-wrong/

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 17, 2020 10:38 AM  

Hillary boosted the status of white liberals Biden does not

Blogger JaimeInTexas September 17, 2020 10:48 AM  

IIRC

In Texas, the mail-in ballots are only counted after the polling places are closed. If the number of mail-in votes are more than the margin on votes counted. The mail-in ballots' signatures must be verified before against registry.
I read somewhere that mail-in ballots rarely have to be counted.

Blogger Harris September 17, 2020 11:26 AM  

I wish I was as confident as you are.

Blogger kurt9 September 17, 2020 11:27 AM  

Like Nixon in '72. Nixon was not a likable guy. Because of the politics (and the over a thousand bombings in '71-72), most people voted for Nixon because they viewed McGovern with his "chic radicalism" as a danger to the country. Nixon had also pulled a rabbit out of his hat with his establishment of relations with mainland China. In the same vein, Trump appears to have pulled off, or at least facilitated, a lasting peace between the Israelis and the Arabs. Its still too early to call it. But it was something I never thought would happen.

The problem with the Dems is that they are literally putting out no campaign message to run on other than Trump hatred.

2020 is a lot like 1970. History doesn't repeat itself. But it often rhymes.

Blogger DaveD September 17, 2020 11:34 AM  

Thad Tuiol wrote:How is he polling in the key states of FLA, NC, OH, MICH and WISC.?

I live in Ohio and the polls show him losing. I don't believe them for two reasons. Last time, the polls also said he was losing. Last time I saw exactly one sign for Hilary. I've actually seen more signs for Biden this time around but its still 4 or 5 to 1 Trump signs, flags etc to Biden. I think its going to be a landslide for Trump here unless there's an awful lot of people who are voting Biden but won't admit it.

Blogger Crew September 17, 2020 11:34 AM  

I think the Democrats are going to try to drag out certification of the results until Jan 20 so they can get the speaker of the house appointed as the President.

Of course, if they lose the house, they are screwed.

Blogger DougW September 17, 2020 11:34 AM  

So long as he wins by a margin larger than the mail-in cheat factor.

Blogger My Comment September 17, 2020 12:04 PM  

What his model doesn't take into consideration is the massive mail in vote fraud that is going to take place. Any model that does not account for that is not accurate

Blogger Harris September 17, 2020 12:04 PM  

Let's hope so.

Blogger My Comment September 17, 2020 12:06 PM  

Different scenario this election. Fraud by mail in vote is the cornerstone of the Democratic strategy. Plus a lot of democratic females are still terrified of the virus

Blogger Nostromo September 17, 2020 12:09 PM  

I told my wife that this is Dr. Jills revenge for decades of hair sniffing, and groping anything with a mish. No wife who loves her husband would let him be continually exposed as a demented alzheimers sufferer unless she hated him viscerally.

Blogger Andrew Jackson September 17, 2020 12:17 PM  

Don Jr. 2024!!!!

Blogger VD September 17, 2020 12:28 PM  

None of you worrying about the mail-in vote understand how the electoral college system works. Read up on it before opining further please.

Blogger Jeff aka Orville September 17, 2020 12:44 PM  

I just hope the Joe Rogan / Trump interview happens.

Blogger Duh September 17, 2020 1:20 PM  

@22 "How is he polling in the key states of FLA, NC, OH, MICH and WISC.?"

Not sure what the polls are saying, but this betting site is favoring Trump in all but one
https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics

Blogger Karen took the Kids September 17, 2020 1:46 PM  

This guy must have tenure because he'd almost certainly be fired for telling the truth otherwise.

Blogger Doktor Jeep September 17, 2020 1:50 PM  

The better things look for Trump the bigger a spectacle the insurgents will need for the October surprise. Maybe even war.
I look forward to it. Hoka hey.

Blogger Peter September 17, 2020 1:59 PM  

I don't think a landslide is possible, it's more likely it will be a sickly pseudo victory like last time with more Hillary voters but an EC victory. With years to plan fraud the left will no doubt find 100 million Americans that don't exist to vote.

Blogger urthshu September 17, 2020 2:05 PM  

>>Trump appears to have pulled off, or at least facilitated, a lasting peace between the Israelis and the Arabs. Its still too early to call it. But it was something I never thought would happen.

Same. And knowing the players involved I have doubts they can refrain from backstabbing each other and ruining it all.

Blogger Prof. Spudd September 17, 2020 2:34 PM  

Yesterday was the first day Rasmussen had Trump ahead of Punxsutawney Joe in their "national" poll (47/46). This despite the fact that Trump was only getting 80% support among "Republicans" and had an almost 10-point lead with "Independents".

In other words, he's actually probably up in this poll by 5-6 (which translates to a 40-42 state Trumpslide) but all of the polls are going to continue to be "adjusted" to show a "horse race" until about 10-days out because by then it's going to be patently obvious even to normie casual low-info voters that one of the "horses" got lost out of the gate.


@34 Unknown
Even if Rasmussen's state polls are crap, they appear to be good at the national level, I think it was the only one that caught Hillary ahead of Trump by 2 points on Election Day. If Trump is ahead of Biden by 1 this far out, and assuming Trump doesn't tank at any point -- the covid has already hit every part of the country, so we don't have to worry about that -- it looks like a Democrat wipeout.

Blogger Prof. Spudd September 17, 2020 2:42 PM  

None of you worrying about the mail-in vote understand how the electoral college system works. Read up on it before opining further please.

A lot of people were spooked by that Red Mirage psyops.

Blogger gooey andruy September 17, 2020 3:01 PM  

One theory I've considered is that at least some of this madness is by design - Trump has already won, and his opponents are now in the process of making themselves unelectable by reasonable people.

No proof for this, but it partially explains the huge number of tactical errors.

Blogger Jack Amok September 17, 2020 3:22 PM  

You guys worrying about the mail-in votes don't understand how the system works. Those votes are irrelevant once Trump gets past 270 electoral college votes on Election Night.

I assume the Democrat strategy - to the extent they have one - is to gin up as much chaos around mail in ballots as possible, and use this to claim he didn't reach 270 and drag the whole thing out, maybe expecting Nancy Pelosi to calvinball something with the House rejecting Trump's victory, perhaps hoping they still have enough on Roberts to get the SC to go along.

But if it's as big a victory as it's shaping up to be, especially if there are coattails in the House, that's a whole lot less feasible.

OTOH, they've been throwing one hail mary after another, each more idiotic and desperate than the last. If mail in ballots are a key part of their strategy today, there's a good chance they'll have moved on to something even less credible by Nov 3.

Blogger Oswald September 17, 2020 3:31 PM  

gooey andruy said:
"One theory I've considered is that at least some of this madness is by design - Trump has already won, and his opponents are now in the process of making themselves unelectable by reasonable people."

It is hard to see behind the curtain, but yes I agree this madness is by design. The deep state must be well versed in mass psychological warfare. So what appears to be tactical errors may in fact be intentional targeted attacks. They may appear as errors to us because we are not the intended targets or they are designed to look like errors to hide their intentionality or they may be part of a much larger plan, like in chess sacrificing a pawn to trap the queen three moves down the road, in which case they would not be errors at all, but part of greater strategy.

Blogger Valar Addemmis September 17, 2020 3:48 PM  

Jack Amok wrote:I assume the Democrat strategy - to the extent they have one - is to gin up as much chaos around mail in ballots as possible, and use this to claim he didn't reach 270 and drag the whole thing out, maybe expecting Nancy Pelosi to calvinball something with the House rejecting Trump's victory, perhaps hoping they still have enough on Roberts to get the SC to go along.

IMO, this is the real tell that the left and the media know that the election is lost. Did anyone talk about Pelosi Calvinballing her way to President if the votes weren't counted by Inauguration Day in 2016? It's all battlefield preparation.

Blogger rumpole5 September 17, 2020 4:32 PM  

I think that the mail in vote is not really an effort to get vote numbers (fraudulent or not) that actually elect Biden. Instead it is an effort to give the democrats a justification for their next coup attempt by claiming that we didn't "count every vote". That is why (they will claim) they have to withdraw from the union, blow things up, bring in Chinese troops, or whatever else they actually have planned.

Blogger Bezzle September 17, 2020 5:06 PM  

@3. Jpc
And Biden looks like a husk...

The cortex bomb is pressing on a nerve.

Blogger Bezzle September 17, 2020 5:34 PM  

As Biden had a 10-15 point lead going into Iowa and...

And you know this, how? --Why would you accept as premise that these polls possessed a modicum of accuracy or integrity in the first place, given what you already know, assuming you weren't born yesterday?

Published polls are pure FUD.

Blogger Meng Greenleaf September 17, 2020 6:03 PM  

I sent a request for my absente ballot about a month ago, I have not received it yet (overseas). I normally receive ballots automatically, but I thought I'd request this one specifically.

Any ideas?

I sent an email to the Clerks office and it came back saying it could not be delivered because the recipient's mailbox was full.

I suppose I will FAX them next.

Blogger Macs September 17, 2020 6:34 PM  

Write a post on this for us ignorant plebs please.

Blogger Avalanche September 17, 2020 6:50 PM  

@21 "haven't seen a single Biden bumper sticker "

And as MUCH as I support Trump, no-way-in-hell would I risk my car or house getting damaged by Atlanta BLM/antifa!

Blogger Avalanche September 17, 2020 7:00 PM  

@43 "I read somewhere that mail-in ballots rarely have to be counted."

Which is infuriating because it means quite often the military ballots don't get counted EVER! Okay-okay, yeah I know: they aren't NEED to determine a landslide winner. But it would be VERY useful info year-by-year...

Blogger Slippin JImmy September 17, 2020 7:01 PM  

Trump will win the popular vote.

Blogger Silent Draco September 17, 2020 7:37 PM  

Ever seen Trunk Monkey videos?

The GE has a better button to push.

Blogger The Pitchfork Rebel September 17, 2020 7:37 PM  

I saw an article that the Trump campaign thinks it can win without Florida.

Translation: The felons and former Puerto Ricans make a win unlikely.

Blogger Moonman's Ray-Ban Sunglasses September 17, 2020 8:12 PM  

@45
"2020 is a lot like 1970. History doesn't repeat itself. But it often rhymes."

You read like George Lucas's meanderings.

Nixon won the election against JFK. The election was subverted by voter fraud. This is a historical fact.

Monday morning quarterbacking and the complicit media have fucked up our minds.

Blogger RedJack September 17, 2020 8:57 PM  

I live in blue occupied iowa. The riots, threats in small towns, and school teachers threatening students have turned my blue county red. Not many are putting out signs after some unrest a few weeks ago, but there are 5 Trump signs per every Biden one.

Blogger NRx September 17, 2020 10:09 PM  

Who votes may be less important than who counts the votes is the only problem. I think Trump still wins but not without civil strife and a disputed election.

Blogger Damelon Brinn September 17, 2020 10:12 PM  

Trump will win the popular vote.

It would be a lot of fun to watch the blue states that passed laws to give their electoral votes to the popular vote winner suddenly scrambling to find their own acts unconstitutional.

Blogger Valar Addemmis September 17, 2020 11:35 PM  

Damelon Brinn wrote:Trump will win the popular vote.

It would be a lot of fun to watch the blue states that passed laws to give their electoral votes to the popular vote winner suddenly scrambling to find their own acts unconstitutional.


There's a reason those acts only go into effect if enough states sign on to provide 270 electoral votes.

I do expect some states to pass laws nullifying their previous ones joining the NPV after Trump wins the popular, though.

Blogger boogeyman September 18, 2020 2:32 AM  

I'll take our hosts word on it that we don't have that much to worry about when it comes to mail in ballot fraud. He was right about Jordan Peterson long before I saw it, so I'll trust him on this.

Still, and I don't know how, but my gut says to worry about cheating. I couldn't really enjoy Trump's win in '16. Every day between the election and the swearing in, I kept expecting some lunatic to assassinate him. That same feeling is back. I was wrong then, and I'll probably be wrong this time.

I tend to be a pessimist. I'm also just smart enough to know my limitations. I'll do what I always do when presented with a problem beyond my power or understanding; I'll do my best, trust in God to do what is best, and leave all the unknowns up to Him. We already know the end of the story. The good guys win. The only thing in doubt are the bits between here and there.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd September 18, 2020 9:35 AM  

boogeyman wrote:I tend to be a pessimist.
Pessimists get lots of happy surprises, when things aren't as bad as they could have been.
Be prepared for the worst case, and also for less worse cases, and get on with your life.
boogeyman wrote:I'll do what I always do when presented with a problem beyond my power or understanding; I'll do my best, trust in God to do what is best, and leave all the unknowns up to Him.
Yes, exactly.

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