ALL BLOG POSTS AND COMMENTS COPYRIGHT (C) 2003-2020 VOX DAY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED.

Friday, October 30, 2020

Franco-Swiss model predicts Trump victory

The GDP numbers are in. The God-Emperor will win:

According to the election prediction model developed by John Antonakis, Professor at HEC Lausanne (University of Lausanne) and Philippe Jacquart, Professor at EMLyon, the deciding factors in the critical swing states will be the state of the economy and the charisma of the candidates. For the November 3rd US Presidential election, positive economic indicators should boost the chances of a Trump win.

The statistical model developed by the researchers and professors John Antonakis and Philippe Jacquart, is based on two kinds of data: the country’s economic fundamentals and the political party currently in power (based on the economic model developed by Prof. R. Fair at Yale University), as well as the candidates’ level of charisma. This model has correctly called the 2016 and 2012 elections and, retrospectively, 20 of 24 elections from 1916-2008.

  • Positive economic messages help an incumbent get re-elected.
  • An incumbent president running again has an advantage.
  • Economic growth data in this quarter will weigh heavily on voting outcomes (current forecasts suggest between 20-30% 3rd Quarter growth).
  • Biden's election speech is less charismatic than Trump's speech.

And what was the economic growth reported?  

U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3, better than expected.

Ergo, it's not only in the bag, but President Trump is going to win in a landslide that has only been exceeded by Ronald Reagan in his 49-state thumping of Walter Mondale. Despite the Fake Polls, everyone knows this is going to happen: Walmart is not pulling all its guns-for-sale off the floor because Trump's supporters lack weaponry and Rodeo Drive is not already being boarded up prior to Election Day because Hollywood storeowners anticipate excessive exuberance on the part of ecstatic Biden voters.

“Joe Biden is heading to St. Paul, Minnesota, tomorrow. It will be the fullest travel day of his general election campaign, with stops now in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.”

Translation: Biden is going to lose Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Labels: ,

116 Comments:

Blogger Brett baker October 30, 2020 9:07 AM  

You're wrong SDL. It's always the right wingers causing trouble. The Deep State would never lie!

Blogger greg October 30, 2020 9:09 AM  

Curfew for Pueblo, Co. 10pm to 5am starting today. 2 weeks. Several other Colo cities also locking down to stop spread of COVID, as they say.

Blogger Nathan Bruno October 30, 2020 9:10 AM  

Gov of Michigan enacts "registration" if you go to a diner or restaurant starting Monday morning. She bankrupted a lot of gyms, so we can't congregate and talk politics there; she's after the diners now. Yesterday, there was less anger at the diner among the large group of older men who gather at my usual spot, and instead there was a lot of resolve that action is finally going to come with in-person voting on Tuesday morning. She is probably too late in trying to take away restaurants to sway the election.

Blogger Dole October 30, 2020 9:15 AM  

When Biden is getting out of his basement, things must be really bad...

and will only get worse.

Blogger Unknown October 30, 2020 9:15 AM  

Let's pray texas won't turn blue...

Blogger Stilicho October 30, 2020 9:19 AM  

Biden's plan to lay low to avoid further damage died quickly. Smells like desperation. If it was at all close he should be trying to secure NC or NV not playing defense in MN.

Blogger Unknown October 30, 2020 9:21 AM  

post scriptum

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsUXcUK68bY

Blogger VD October 30, 2020 9:22 AM  

Let's pray texas won't turn blue...

It's going to be amusing to see how you ninnies are going to be all confident that Trump was always going to win on November 4th. Texas won't even be close to going for Biden.

Blogger Curlytop October 30, 2020 9:33 AM  

A little piece of advice for the ninnies out there: stop mindlessly watching Fox and actually look around on what's going.

Another newsflash: Ga ain't flipping Blue either.

Blogger SonyAD October 30, 2020 9:44 AM  

Curtailing air travel also means people are forced to spend more of their money locally, in the economy they live in and earn money in. Rather than far abroad and for services at that, not goods they bring back home with them. That cannot help but contribute to GDP. High unemployment due to the lockdown also means that people need to spend their savings for stuff like food, rent, utility bills etc. Which increases the money in circulation, or the percentage of the money supply in rapid, continuous circulation, or the velocity of money. Which likewise helps GDP.

I'm actually glad suspension of air travel is preventing the filthy yuppies and corporate drones from spending their money on basically nothing abroad (a few days or couple of weeks of lodgings and food). Suspension of unnecessary or vanity air travel is a good thing, no matter which way you look at it. Less pollution, less waste of fuel, less exotic disease communication. Less money spent abroad on 'services' such as basic accommodation and some scraps of food for two weeks. Cheaper gas and diesel prices. More spending on lasting goods with practical and productive uses (such as computer hardware) rather than on 'services'. More forcing of corporations to consider teleconferencing and remote work when it's feasible, such as for office work. And a re-shifting of the economies towards goods rather than ephemera such as services.

I haven't left my country's borders in over 30 years of being alive, and see no need or want to. I'm glad those who just want or 'need' to periodically leave it for a few days are forced not to as well.

Blogger Ingot9455 October 30, 2020 9:45 AM  

My money is where my mouth is.

Blogger Rex Little October 30, 2020 9:47 AM  

It's going to be amusing to see how you ninnies are going to be all confident that Trump was always going to win on November 4th.

I'll go on record right here and now that I don't think Trump will win, or even that it'll be close enough that the Democrats have to "find" mailed ballots. There are just too many people out there who think that Trump is horrible and would vote against him even if Biden strangled a live kitten on national TV.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong, and will cheerfully accept any mockery directed at me if Trump wins.

Blogger Glen Sprigg October 30, 2020 9:49 AM  

If Biden is campaigning in Minnesota, his chances of taking Texas are about as good as my chances of dating Miss Universe. And I'm not even trying to date her.

Blogger The Only Cigar in the Box October 30, 2020 9:55 AM  

I'm not a social media guy at all. I use Facebook for the convenience of scheduling parties and keeping touch with family. I rarely post anything except videos of cuddly animals or amazing feats of strength and/or agility (my own and those of others). But I am going to gloat the s*** out of Trump's victory on Facebook.

This week, the wife and I took the added precaution of doubling our inventory of food and supplies, because we assume the aftermath of a resounding Trump victory will be the explosion of mostly peaceful protests across the country where stores, roads, and supply chains are destroyed.

Blogger Johnny October 30, 2020 9:56 AM  

I am like the tightening polls. As we get closer to the election it seems progressively more likely that Trump is the winner. Predictable patterns, and the deep state is making baby steps in his direction.

If it were easier to bet on these elections I would start betting. There are these certain predictable patterns. Early on if the favored candidate isn't the incumbent, the odds will overestimate the likelihood of their getting the nomination. The media always oversells whoever they would like to win, And the polls always tighten for the favored candidate. And regardless, enough of the public is fooled that it creates favorable odds. I suspect the Europeans are more fooled by what is going on than we are, because not living in the country they have less intuitive feel for what is going on.

Biden has a certain appeal when he is playing the family guy, the well meaning old duffer, the I am just like you are guy; with the other side the I am smarter than you are guy. But circumstance doesn't allow him to do that a lot, plus of course his age related decline.

And then that superficial women he has as a running mate. Good looking, friendly, but seriously lacking gravitas. As they used to say, she doesn't look like presidential timber.

Blogger SemiSpook37 October 30, 2020 9:57 AM  

The biggest piece in all of this is the complete self-ownage of many of the Ds in charge of their various states. You would think, that in an election year, folks like Tom Wolf in PA and Gretchen Wilmer in MI, in order to protect their party's hold on national election numbers, would ease up in a situation like the one we've been in since March.

Problem is that these idiots have essentially gone "narrative uber alles", which has, in turn, put many of their own supporters in Trump's column. Spite is a very powerful political tool, especially to those that have been wronged by those they thought were in their corner.

I mean, the Hunter Biden stuff aside, does anybody with two actual brain cells to rub together honestly think that ol' Creepy Joe even had a shot in this cycle?

Blogger Mr.MantraMan October 30, 2020 9:59 AM  

Well if I were close to those states I would be asking around where the state po po has to control traffic and head that way with my Trump flags to drive around like Indians in a John Wayne movie as happened to a Biden bus the other day. Funny as hell a Biden for America bus was being followed around by a hundred cars they say with Trump flags. To see that pic on twitter was a morale boost to say the least.

Blogger The Fez October 30, 2020 10:03 AM  

Biden is anti-Second Amendment and anti-oil sector. He's going to lose Texas by double-digits. The early voting surge is not the urban masses finally rising up to defeat the bad orange man. It is incensed Republicans, independents and Democrats turning out to defend their gun rights. If you go gown the list on the substantive issues in Texas, Biden is on the losing side of nearly all of them.

People have to understand that Cruz v. Francis O'Rourke was close because A. O'Rourke campaigned in literally every county in Texas, and B., had nearly 100 million dollars pumped into his campaign. He may be an idiot, but he put in the work. He had grass roots appeal as a 'native' Texas kid, and Ted Cruz rubs a lot of people the wrong way with his constant show-boating and moralizing.

Comparatively, Greg Abbot destroyed his opponent by 13 points. When Texans like their incumbent they turn out to vote.

It won't be close.

Blogger Teleport me off this rock October 30, 2020 10:06 AM  

There are just too many people out there who think that Trump is horrible and would vote against him even if Biden strangled a live kitten on national TV.

Those are same people who ended up in tears in November 2016. Just because they're the loudest doesn't make them the most numerous.


I sincerely hope I'm wrong, and will cheerfully accept any mockery directed at me if Trump wins.

That's roaring past gamma straight into lambda.

Blogger van helsing October 30, 2020 10:08 AM  

trumpnami!

Blogger Vernon October 30, 2020 10:09 AM  

PredictIt.org is an easy way to bet on the election.

Blogger Jeroth October 30, 2020 10:12 AM  

Rex Little wrote:I'll go on record right here and now that I don't think Trump will win, or even that it'll be close enough that the Democrats have to "find" mailed ballots. There are just too many people out there who think that Trump is horrible and would vote against him even if Biden strangled a live kitten on national TV.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong, and will cheerfully accept any mockery directed at me if Trump wins.


Let's say we were at war with a foreign nation and you said this about losing the war. Do you think anyone would give a flying rat's ass if you "hope you're wrong"? If all you have to offer is demoralization, just keep your mouth shut.

Blogger Jake October 30, 2020 10:23 AM  

Kamala Harris is not good looking, and her eyes exude insanity and evil.

Blogger Seth S October 30, 2020 10:23 AM  

Trump needs PA, NC, FL and AZ, he can win without MI, WI OR MN but it sure would be nice to get them

Blogger Damelon Brinn October 30, 2020 10:26 AM  

There's a pollster/analyst who goes by Peoples_Pundit, who does the kind of nerdy number-crunching that people think Nate Silver does. If you want to listen to someone break down the trend of college-educated white women in Allegheny County for 20 minutes, check him out. He's not predicting a Trumpslide yet, but he's seeing a lot of positive signs.

One thing he talked about recently was pollster bullying: since 2016, any pollster who doesn't provide the media the numbers to fit their narrative gets pressured and threatened. That's why the promoted ones have been falling into line with high numbers for Biden, while Nate Silver runs around saying the only way Trump can beat those gaps is by cheating.

He also said Trump voters are far more reluctant to talk to a pollster than Biden voters. He knows that because they use an automated system that asks the person to press a button for their candidate and then asks them to stay on the line so a person can ask them questions. Trump voters hang up 10 times as often. The pollsters could try to correct for that, but they'd rather oversample Biden voters and blame Trump voters for refusing to answer when they're wrong.

Blogger gunner451 October 30, 2020 10:28 AM  

I'm not so sure, there is record voting going on in places like Texas. This may mean that Trump enthusiasm is off the charts or it may mean that people are sick of him and you have "broken glass" dems/indep that will crawl across even broken glass to vote him out.

Blogger Ron Winkleheimer October 30, 2020 10:28 AM  

The people who think Biden is going to win probably think Nikki Haley is going to be president some day.

Blogger Lazarus October 30, 2020 10:30 AM  

50 would be nice. He's earned it.

Blogger MATT October 30, 2020 10:32 AM  

Vox, what do you think about a Trump Jr run in 2024?

Blogger Sweet Lei October 30, 2020 10:33 AM  

Rex Little wrote:It's going to be amusing to see how you ninnies are going to be all confident that Trump was always going to win on November 4th.

I'll go on record right here and now that I don't think Trump will win, or even that it'll be close enough that the Democrats have to "find" mailed ballots. There are just too many people out there who think that Trump is horrible and would vote against him even if Biden strangled a live kitten on national TV.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong, and will cheerfully accept any mockery directed at me if Trump wins.



I almost never comment here and I felt the need to pre-emptively mock Rex Little. It's one type of reprehensible to be a whiny little pessimist. It's worse to try to infect others with it.

Trump just got a huge win with the ACB confirmation. Republican new voter registrations are outpacing Democrats for the first time in recent history. If you parse it correctly, you can even see the mainstream media bracing for a Trumpslide.

What you don't get is that a lot of us acknowledge that Trump isn't a 'good guy' in the sense that he never ran as a 'moral guy'. He ran as someone who would get the job done. He's arresting pedophiles, giving us okay SCOTUS picks, and is objectively the most pro-life president since Roe. I'm ashamed I didn't vote for Trump last time (I didn't feel like I could vote for either candidate) but I won't be repeating that mistake this time.

Blogger SciVo October 30, 2020 10:35 AM  

Kamala Harris, friendly? You need to work on your EQ. The only way she was chosen as running mate is if Joe had no input in the decision. She looks like if you turned your back on her, she'd shiv you and then find a reason.

Blogger infrequent October 30, 2020 10:36 AM  

Predictit needs to get a market going for how soon after the failed election Biden drops from a fatal .45 stroke. And possibly his family members too. After all, such maladies are congenital.

Blogger Lazarus October 30, 2020 10:36 AM  

The SDL is getting more delicate of speech in his middle years. It used to be morons, now it is ninnies.

Blogger Damelon Brinn October 30, 2020 10:39 AM  

New lockdowns starting Sunday in Illinois too, obviously trying to depress election day turnout which will lean Republican. I don't know if they're actually worried about Illinois flipping, or just trying to hang on to the national popular vote for their post-election narrative.

Blogger Doktor Jeep October 30, 2020 10:39 AM  

I know Trump is going to win because I have nothing but dread that he won't.
It's an omega thing.

Blogger drsmith48167 October 30, 2020 10:40 AM  

Hmm - wonder if the sudden late October surprise of all the “laptop from hell” photos, videos, emails, etc... are a result of preparing the excuses why sleep Joe lost so bigly. if Trump does win by such a huge margin as some are forecasting, how else could they sell it to the MSM faithful other than “.....his stupid crack head son cost him the election”?

Blogger maniacprovost October 30, 2020 10:45 AM  

The problem here is the pandemic is such a huge factor, not because the Democrats try to blame it on Trump just as they blame hurricanes and everything else on Republicans. But there has been massive social and economic upheaval. This outweighs most of the factors that we're using to make predictions.

What if the breakdown of social super nodes causes people to listen to the mainstream media more? What if instead of 3% of the population watching cable news propaganda around the clock now it's 5%?

I expect Trump will win based on past experience and all the metrics that I know about.

Blogger Randomatos October 30, 2020 10:49 AM  

The world is warped enough that I expect both the God-Emperor and the Portlandia antifa-stain mayor to win their re-elections. The empire needs the G-E to have a soft landing, but the barbarian provinces and ivory towers are in open revolt.

Blogger aptak October 30, 2020 10:53 AM  

The problem is that the Q3 GDP growth numbers are not being talked about on the mainstream media, so there is limited exposure to the good news. And Im sure that certain swing states (ie Penn, Mich) that have democrat governors are not touting this. Its why they are called low information voters. The media tries to keep people stupid on the facts. So Im afraid that with only 4 days before the election, Q3 GDP news is not going to permeate and reach the masses to make a difference.

Blogger Azimus October 30, 2020 10:54 AM  

Trump is going to come close to winning Milwaukee County - the #2 bastion of the progs in WI, which the progs need to go HEAVILY dem in order to tilt the balance of the very right-leaning left of the state. This despite hackers stealing $2.5MM in campaign money in WI

Blogger justthinkin October 30, 2020 10:56 AM  

Positive economic messages help an incumbent get re-elected.

Positive economic developments does not equate to positive economic messages, if the media is not reporting the developments. Otherwise, I agree with this prediction.

Blogger 351wsl October 30, 2020 11:01 AM  

@15
There's still some pretty good bets on predict.org and it's legal in the US.
I've got a spread across Trump's EC margin and money on him winning Michigan. If he wins, I'll triple my money.

Note, you pay 15% in fees on your winnings and it takes 30 days to collect

Blogger Reader October 30, 2020 11:02 AM  

I have zero confidence in anything these days, including the outcome of this election. Insanity, fraud, lawlessness, and evil have become the new normal being pushed by the beast system. Too many very powerful, very evil people have too much to lose. Will God have mercy on America and once again allow the white hats to thwart them, or will He give us over to our evil?

One would very much like to take heart and rest easy that all the signs are pointing to the re-election of The God Emperor but I would not bet the farm on it. I will do as in 2016 and avoid all election night coverage, and again, hopefully, will cry tears of joy late in the evening upon hearing the news of the re-election of Donald Trump. Only then will I relax, even while the demons go batshit insane with rage.

Blogger xevious2030 October 30, 2020 11:11 AM  

Biden as the candidate, is not to win Texas. And other factors, thanks to TGE, have moved Texas away from a 2024 flip. Meaning, if run right, Dems are out until at least 2028. Unless TGE wins a third term, meaning 2032 or later. Might be banned entirely, sent out in dump trucks to swim their way somewhere else.

Blogger VD October 30, 2020 11:14 AM  

I sincerely hope I'm wrong

It's always so tedious to watch the psychological kabuki play of those who are afraid to hope.

So Im afraid

Obviously. Stop it.

Blogger pyrrhus October 30, 2020 11:16 AM  

Trump will certainly win...but the media/big tech/vote fraud complex will attempt to convince us that he didn't...Trump will need a very firm hand in the ensuing mess

Blogger Balkan Yankee October 30, 2020 11:24 AM  

Trumpslide 2020.

Believe it.

Blogger Gianna October 30, 2020 11:26 AM  

I think if they could wipe out all Dem voter fraud Trump would win all 49 states.
And that's what I am hoping and praying for.
A friend voted in Madison WI and told me there was NOT ONE Republican running for any of the local offices which I found startling - pages and pages of Dems only.

Blogger Matt October 30, 2020 11:42 AM  

Nah, everyone knows Dem Presidential candidates routinely go to Dem strongholds they haven't lost in 50 years 4 days out from an election because they're 17 points ahead there. Obviously!

Blogger Mr.MantraMan October 30, 2020 11:43 AM  

Trump wins. Brett Favre just endorsed him, gain MN and WI lose Shitinois, what a trade.

Blogger GregMan October 30, 2020 11:50 AM  

"Good looking, friendly"

We ARE talking about Kamala, correct? The only woman in politics who could give Hillary Clinton a run for her money for the title of "Most Unpleasant Woman Ever"?

Blogger tuberman October 30, 2020 11:51 AM  

Damelon Brinn wrote:New lockdowns starting Sunday in Illinois too, obviously trying to depress election day turnout which will lean Republican. I don't know if they're actually worried about Illinois flipping, or just trying to hang on to the national popular vote for their post-election narrative.

I'm in Illinois, the northern suburbs of Chicago to be exact, and I think Illinois will still go 'D,' but with a much closer popular vote. Yet I could be wrong, in a positive way, as there has been a huge turn-out of early in-person voting... That has to be good for Trump. People around here supporting Trump would likely be silent about it. I expect the Illinois counties that went for Trump by 65-70% in 2016, will be as high as 90+% this time. Cook county is the major problem, obviously, with cheating so ingrained for many decades.

Blogger Jack Amok October 30, 2020 11:51 AM  

When Biden is getting out of his basement, things must be really bad...

Pauxitauny Joe came out of his basement and saw his shadow, thus predicting four more years of Trump.

Blogger Noah B. October 30, 2020 11:53 AM  

Even Michael Moore knows the polls are bullshit.

Blogger Jack Amok October 30, 2020 11:56 AM  

The problem is that the Q3 GDP growth numbers are not being talked about on the mainstream media, so there is limited exposure to the good news.

That's not how economic growth works. Nobody pays attention to some Poindexter yammering away on TV - 98% of the country knows they're some combination of ignorant, lying and foolish. A good economy helps an incumbent because people have felt the benefits themselves. More have jobs, fewer are despairing about providing for their family... Reagan's joke about the difference between Recession and Depression highlights this.

Nobody needs Rachael Maddow to tell them if they have a job or not. Nobody needs Jake Tapper to tell them if they can pay the mortgage this month.

Blogger tuberman October 30, 2020 12:02 PM  

BTW. Trump will win much bigger than 2016, with more than 40 states, and even the popular vote in spite of some cheating

Blogger Submitted2Christ October 30, 2020 12:04 PM  

I am just loving watching all of this play out!

The Demon state is being completely out classed by a masterful plan that could only come from God through Trump.

Blogger Barbarossa October 30, 2020 12:06 PM  

"...with stops now in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.”

Hillary! had a combined 4 visits to those three states after winning the nomination in 2016. The fact that Uncle Joe is having to spend travel time (and let's face it, physical energy) is all you need to know about the fantasy of him turning TX blue.

Blogger Homesteader October 30, 2020 12:10 PM  

You can tell who's read the 23rd Psalm and who hasn't, by today's comments.

Stop being SmartBoys.

Pick your team.

Then believe in them.

It's called faith. Try it.

Blogger Sterling Pilgrim October 30, 2020 12:20 PM  

OT... did Mailchimp just set itself up for the biggest Tortuous Interference Case ever?

Blogger Damelon Brinn October 30, 2020 12:24 PM  

Nate Copium is prepping his excuses: "In certain ways, I don't think the presidential election models are really telling you very much this year."

A day or two ago he said non-statisticians laughing at his predictions are an example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. We're reaching levels of irony not previously thought possible.

Blogger Jake October 30, 2020 12:27 PM  

A little inside baseball. Someone in the know told me that Kamala Harris was anointed by the Prometheans (International Party or whatever else you want to call them, e.g. cabal) a few years ago. She tanked in the primaries, so they put her in as Biden's running mate, with the idea that Biden is effectively a dead-letter (dementia). Kamala is the choice of the Prometheans. Why? She'll do their dirty work.

Blogger Unknown October 30, 2020 12:32 PM  

Here in Michigan, they are giving out free pizzas to anyone who drops a ballot off at the city clerk's office in Detroit, and they are running 4x the Trump ads, in fact as I am typing they just ran three Biden ads in a row, one with Jill and one with Trump in odd colors.

The last week they have been running an ad that whether you vote is public information, and your family and friends could find out.

That doesn't sound like Biden is actually winning the state by 11 points.

Oddly, the local news is going hard on walmart pulling firearms and ammo off the shelf in advance of election night.

I just got done typing, and the noon news ran another three Biden ads in a row, followed by one attacking the black GOPer running for senate.

Wait, Trump finally ran an ad, a great one with Joe Biden's speech against black criminals, in his own words

Blogger Unknown October 30, 2020 12:35 PM  

Detroit ABC station ran election results during The Bachelor.

https://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/television/2020/10/28/wxyz-abc-detroit-2020-election-results-test-bachelorette/3760039001/

Blogger Azimus October 30, 2020 12:36 PM  

40. AzimusOctober 30, 2020 10:54 AM
Trump is going to come close to winning Milwaukee County - the #2 bastion of the progs in WI, which the progs need to go HEAVILY dem in order to tilt the balance of the very right-leaning left of the state.


...to tilt the balance of the very right-leaning *rest* of the state.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd October 30, 2020 12:40 PM  

Mr.MantraMan wrote:Funny as hell a Biden for America bus was being followed around by a hundred cars they say with Trump flags. To see that pic on twitter was a morale boost to say the least.
Trump has a large, widespread, enthusiastic base. That's how people get elected. Biden can't even buy the support that Trump gets free.
The Dems have made themselves the party of BLM, riots, looting and lockdowns. Even if you're a retarded nevertrumper, it's going to be tough to work up enthusiasm for the Dem alternative to orangemanbad. There will be a whole lot of unmotivated non-voters on the Dem side, come election day.
Randomatos wrote:The world is warped enough that I expect both the God-Emperor and the Portlandia antifa-stain mayor to win their re-elections.
If Trump's anti-cheating efforts are effective, they're going to tip a lot of the down-ticket races as well. The antifa-stain might honestly win if it has driven out all the decent folks from Portland, but it might not be able to cheat this time if it hasn't.

Blogger Goodnight October 30, 2020 12:57 PM  

I work in one of the big five urban counties in Texas. So far, turnout is huge in the red precincts, and mediocre in the blue precincts. In the handful of precincts where I drilled down deeper - precincts that were close in 2016 - voters who voted in the last Republican primary have turned out so far at a much higher rate than the ones who voted in the Democrat primary. Almost 2-1 in a couple of them.

Trump will take Texas easily. There is a big enthusiasm/turnout gap in the early voting. Texas election numbers are public record so feel free to double-check. Anybody forecasting Biden taking Texas is nuts.

Blogger Pedro the Cat October 30, 2020 12:57 PM  

Damelon Brinn:

New lockdowns starting Sunday in Illinois too, obviously trying to depress election day turnout which will lean Republican. I don't know if they're actually worried about Illinois flipping, or just trying to hang on to the national popular vote for their post-election narrative.

Damelon, I live in Southern Illinois. The restaurants around here are 50/50 on indoor dining, the owners know who will not enforce the Fat Bastard's edict. The chain businesses/restaurants will follow all guidelines for fear of liability. The small businesses have no choice: open or die. Takeout is ok temporarily, but who wants to eat cold food?

It's my opinion that Fat Bastard won't be able to be elected dog catcher in a fair election in Illinois going forward. He has single handedly taken a once locked-in state for the Dems and put it in play. I know a lot, and I mean ALOT of former Dem voters who aren't going to vote that way this time.

Blogger Crew October 30, 2020 12:58 PM  

Hmmm, current prediction is 312 for Trump. I was expecting more!

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/breaking-current-electoral-college-prediction-shows-president-trump-beating-sleepy-joe-biden-crooked-hillary/

Blogger Geir Balderson October 30, 2020 1:04 PM  

@12
Is that you Scalzi? Gees, what a downer you are! Have compared the size and enthusiasm of a Trump rally over a Biden picnic? I get disgusted by the Debbie Downers. Man up and breath the fresh air!
Tuesday will be a great day to win!!

Blogger Mr.MantraMan October 30, 2020 1:06 PM  

For those of you who dismiss sports for various reasons just FYI the two men at Outkick endorsed DJT as well. I would recommend reading Whitlock's column, he understands the white libs. I've said the Deep State's hysteria is ran by whites and jewish libs as their last ditch effort to stay on top of the D-party/Deep State totem pole.

Hell cannot be hot enough for those bastards.

Blogger ZhukovG October 30, 2020 1:06 PM  

Lose Texas...HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I'd be surprised if California doesn't flip red at this point!

Also for those 'concerned' that the positive economic news won't get out. It doesn't matter. People know what's happening in their communities and in their own lives. The GDP figure just provides us with an indicator of what's happening in general. Quit fretting over nits.

Ad Victoriam, Deo Vindice, Ave Caesar Trump!

Blogger Valar Addemmis October 30, 2020 1:13 PM  

Jake wrote:A little inside baseball. Someone in the know told me that Kamala Harris was anointed by the Prometheans (International Party or whatever else you want to call them, e.g. cabal) a few years ago.

You can validate this yourself. There were MSM articles about her being introduced to both Obama and Hillary's high dollar donors over the last few years. She was always the elite choice, but she couldn't even make it look like she was capable of closing the deal in the primaries so they had her drop before she embarrassed herself and just worked to get her on the ticket. This, of course, pissed off Pelosi who had her own favorite.

Lots of popcorn this last year.

Blogger Colonel Blimp October 30, 2020 1:24 PM  

In 2016, I was sure the demographics of this country were so gone that a sponge could have walked in against the GOP. Unfortunately they ran a Hillary. I was hopeful but not confident at all.

This time, I'm the opposite, but I can't shake the feeling that Trump wins comfortable or it truly is so far gone that an 80 year old idiot who barely campaigns and no one likes wins solely on media farts and drumpf hate because the demographics are so sh6t , it's nearky impossible to win now.

What should cause concern is a super close election. If trump is up by 40k votes in one state that he needed to just get over 270, you can be sure they will "find" enough ballots somewhere to offset it. Probably a week later. At that point, whether the courts favor him or not, how does full conflict not start?? Yes the left are fagg6y losers but cities will burn and if they boot Trump out with cheating and more lying how do we not rise up?

Not trying to blackpill. I do see the election going strongly for Trump, but this wave everyone is feeling is only a week old at most. Lots of people have already voted. It's hard not to see a close election in the states he needs to win and even harder not to see issues AFTER the election that would lead to armed resistance.

Blogger Colonel Blimp October 30, 2020 1:33 PM  

Has Trump even been to Texas lately? And why would Biden need to go to a state dems haven't lost in 45 years in MN?? Hmmmm, why last minute campaign in a state your polls say you are up in by double digits?? I can't even see a potential other race his old mug helps.

It's signaling his campaign knows he is in trouble. Texas going Blue guys are like being Bulls fans in the 90s and being worried about game 4 on the road with Jordan up 3 games to 0 in the series. You really can't see the forest...

Blogger Damelon Brinn October 30, 2020 1:40 PM  

The chain businesses/restaurants will follow all guidelines for fear of liability. The small businesses have no choice: open or die.

In my downstate IL town, a bunch of people (led by Tea Partiers, actually, doing something useful for once) started a legal defense fund in the spring to pay court costs for any business that defied the order. One local restaurant did for one day. No others jumped in, and the media framed it as a political thing, so that was the end of it. I'm hoping there's more resistance this time.

It's my opinion that Fat Bastard won't be able to be elected dog catcher in a fair election in Illinois going forward.

I've been assuming he was offered a position in a Harris administration. There's no way he can win again. Illinois may lean Democrat on the presidency, but the governorship goes back and forth. The Republican governors tend to be crappy liberal Republicans from Chicago, but they won. And Obama only won his Senate seat because a judge broke the seal on 7-of-9's divorce and knocked her husband out of that race.

Blogger Cary October 30, 2020 1:48 PM  

Want to echo @25 that Peoples_Pundit is a useful resource. He is currently polling all the Midwest battlegrounds through election through public funding – built his own platform. In 2016 he predicted the GE winning PA and MI and had him losing WI by 1 point. He currently has Trump within the margin of error in all the states, just behind but possible to win depending on turnout.

Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar is another pollster who got 2016 right and was the first one to identify the shy Trump voter. He released a slew of new polls last night; NC +2.8, PA +0.8, WI -0.4, MI +2.5, FL +2.7, MN -3.2, & NV -2.3.

Susquehanna Polling & Research is the third pollster that was accurate in 2016 that has similar results. All of them agree these races are close. But if Trump holds FL, NC, AZ, ME2, & NE2 - all likely - all he needs is 1 of PA, WI, MI, or MN to win.

I think Trump is more likely to outperform than underperform the #’s based on all the other data points, and in general all the close races tend to break one way which would mean Trumpslide.

Finally, had to note this that I just saw on Twitter:

Minnesota Gov Tim Walz and AG Ellison tried to limit President Trump's rally today to 250 people. Trump wrote back and told them it is a Peaceful Protest.

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants October 30, 2020 1:54 PM  

I think that future elections will be very different with once red strongholds continuing to turn blue, or at least purple, but more and more blue strongholds that are filled with working class whites turning red, or at least purple.
Voting for your skin color is inevitable in the future.

I have always assumed Trump was getting a second term & I can't see him not doing so, unless they manage to pull off an election steal the likes of which this country has never seen before.
The left thinks they are losing, which is why they are talking sending in national guard units and securing businesses, pre-election.
They know the right isn't going to riot, so the only reason they are scaremongering and putting these measures in place is to threaten the American people that if thru don't vote correctly, the mobs are coming, and to signal they very much fear the mob coming because they are losing.
That's the only possible options & neither bode well for the left.

Blogger Crew October 30, 2020 1:57 PM  

@12: Please give us your home address and phone number so we can call at tell you you are winner when Biden wins!

Blogger Colonel Blimp October 30, 2020 2:39 PM  

This would appear to be an easy position to take. Convenient even if you go by polls that say biden up crazy big in michigan, nc, even georgia lol. The problem is as always tv bubble people have a hard time seeinh outside what is presented to them. It's why they do it. To control the masses. Trump winning this time puts a huge dent in that and embarrasses them. Again.

If you can simply open your mind to the very real concept that poll numbers ONCE AGAIN seriously undercount his support and/or the media intentionally inflates them to demoralize right voters, you'll pretty easily see what a 3 to 5 percent swing does to every single state poll. 51 45 becomes dead head or trump. 48 48 is clearly trump and lo and behold a state like ohio or georgia which they say is mildly trump is blood red.

And I am not a homer, but this is clearly happening on some level. It might not be enough to win but it will be much closer. Clearly the numbers they are putting out put biden in the 360s or higher. That is never happening.

You need to turn off your facebook because the 7 super libs you know can't stop talking politics and the mildly affluent white neighborhood or big city you live in are brainwashed sheep. Open your mind to the big country we live in. The only real elections that matter are PA, WI, MI. That's it. If Trump is winning Minn this is a blowout. If he's losing Florida, he losing big time.

Both campaigns know this. If PA is Trumps he wins. If not wisconsin and michigan are enough. The fact that Biden is in Minnesota should tell you what's what.

Blogger MarkyMark October 30, 2020 2:47 PM  

To Vox and Others Skeptical on TX Going Dem,

Consider these things: 1) most, if not all, border counties are Dem; 2) all the major cities are Dem; 3) there's EPIC fraud going on in TX; and 4) Robert Franicis O'Rourke, aka Beta Boy, almost BEAT Ted Cruz! I'll discuss each factor in detail.

One, all the border counties are solid Dem. Two, the same is true in the cities. ICYMI, those are the population centers; they have the majority of the people. So, even if the areas outside the cities vote GOP, that may not be enough to overcome the numerical advantage of the Dem cities. Think of NYC and NY State.

Three, there's EPIC voter fraud going on in TX! James O'Keefe and his Project Veritas just released an explosive video featuring a Raquel Rodriguez engaging in fraud. What's even more disturbing is that she was working with Never Trumper GOP people! Of course, that begs an obvious question: what voter fraud is NOT being exposed? What voter fraud are we missing in TX? That's a scary proposition when you think about it...

Finally, in 2018, Robert Francis O'Rourke, aka Beto the trans Hispanic, almost BEAT Ted Cruz! The margin was less than 3 points. It should've been greater than 30 points! The fact that that race was so close is a shot over the bow, as it were.

I know, I know; you're going to tell me that a lot of out of state money was dumped in to the race, and that a lot of GOP voters stayed home after Cruz spoke his peace at the 2016 convention (vote your conscience). These things are true.

That said, Beto still made it closer than it should've been. One, he's blatantly anti-gun; he makes no bones about his anti 2A stance. Two, he was pro New Green Deal before the NGD existed. Both of these should be non-starters in gun friendly, oil rich TX, Folks! Those stances should be political Kryptonite to anyone expousing them. That is to say that Beto, by expousing such nonsense should've lost by a huge margin. He didn't, and that should give everyone pause. If Beto could almost win in TX, what could Creepy Joe do?

In closing, TX is hardly in the bag. One, the border counties are solid Dem. Two, the cities are Democrat controlled, and they have the bulk of the population. Three, epic voter fraud is going on in TX. Finally, Ted Cruz almost LOST to someone who shouldn't have even been close! The 2018 US Senate race in TX was a shot across the bow; the Dems made it close enough to have confidence in winning. Those are my thoughts...

Blogger DrewinFlag October 30, 2020 2:54 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Colonel Blimp October 30, 2020 3:00 PM  

For the first time in my adult life I actual reada linked articke on a black site whose comment section wasn't completely white devil dems only. It was almost half and half and not from the weird white ones there stirring the pot. There must be 25 percent of blacks that genuinely no longer see the utility in voting dem. The only question is black area are mostly in red states or urban blue states. But if that bounce can help michigan or Pennsylvania then great news.

Blogger Scott October 30, 2020 3:05 PM  

The same is true for the SF Bay Area.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd October 30, 2020 3:07 PM  

Damelon Brinn wrote:A day or two ago he said non-statisticians laughing at his predictions are an example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
It isn't just non-statisticians who are laughing at the pollsters.

Blogger VD October 30, 2020 3:13 PM  

I'll discuss each factor in detail.

Oh, hurray....

Blogger MordWa October 30, 2020 3:23 PM  

Another data point; Robert Barnes (lawyer and pundit) notes that poll response rates have plummeted in the last 10 years. Whereas once 50% of people asked would respond, it’s now 2%. The pollsters are not necessarily lying about their results (or not always), but the polls are not representative samples of the population anymore. Deeper dive here https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf6yr_McIFs

Blogger Goodnight October 30, 2020 3:27 PM  

Except for El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley, most of those border counties are empty. Most of the suburbs around those cities are blood red. Beto did well because a lot of Texans were mad at Cruz. Abbott won by 13 in the same election.

You don't know what the hell you're talking about. I've been reading the actual early voting trends here. Trump is going to take Texas easily. Come back here next Wednesday so I can point and laugh.

Blogger I’ve Seen Things You People Wouldn’t Believe October 30, 2020 3:36 PM  

Trump wins with 326 EV's

Blogger Colonel Blimp October 30, 2020 3:42 PM  

Good looking?? Better get your weight up. Where else can we possibly find a middle aged plump black woman who wears fake hair to look whiter??? You pool of acceptable women must be as large as her xyz...

Blogger Colonel Blimp October 30, 2020 3:47 PM  

So the moral of the story is don't talk to any poll or media but vote and bring everyone you know.

Blogger MarkyMark October 30, 2020 3:54 PM  

Goodnight,

I hope I'm wrong; I really do. However, nothing is a done deal until it's a done deal. To put it another way, don't count the chickens before they hatch.

Also, the Dems have been engaging in serious vote/election fraud down there. There was the big bust where I Biden operative was charged with what, 124 counts? Then, there was the Project Veritas video featuring the "lovely and gracious" Raquel Rodriguez. Oh, and BTW, she was working on behalf of GOP people!

So yeah, I hope I'm wrong, as I'd like to see DJT win; more than that, I'd like it to be an epic landslide, so the Dems can't contest the election and kick off Civil War II like they're talking about. Only an epic landslide will nix any Democrat efforts to overturn the election.

Blogger Vlad the Impaler October 30, 2020 3:58 PM  

Can Trump take California as well? It may be wishful thinking but I’ve seen a lot more support for Trump than I have for Biden here. All over Northern California, I see Trump 2020 signs. In the Bay, I’ve seen quite a few Trump flags in Discovery Bay and I even say a Trump sign on the corner of a street in Richmond. My electrical union publicly supports Biden but I’ve seen a lot of the members state they are voting for Trump. California may be too far left but the resistance is still here

Blogger Br1cht October 30, 2020 4:05 PM  

Listen to the SDL, whom in a sane universe would stride at the God_Emperor´s right side(Supreme Dark Sigilite?), Vox the Sigilite has quite the ring, hasn´t it?

Trumpslide and some cosy gang tribunals looms in the future brothers!

Blogger Moonman's Ray-Ban Sunglasses October 30, 2020 4:12 PM  

@12

I'd advise you to not gamble. You're what they call in the gaming industry a "ploppy"; someone so clueless that they will bet the amount a buffet costs just to earn a comp for a meal.

If I knew you, you would have just earned a special ass-beating just for the willful stupidity you embrace.

Blogger Dan in Georgia October 30, 2020 4:15 PM  

Is it okay if we start now?

This reminds me of 1984 in a lot of ways, namely, that the blue states are mindlessly following instructions from China against their own interests. The MSM in 1984 told us every night how much everyone hated Reagan. Now China thinks keeping a state locked down will be blamed on Trump. The governors know better but can’t say no. When NC and Virginia get called early for TGE, look for 48 more to be called. Biden will lose bigger than Mondale. That’s right, all 50 states for Trump.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash October 30, 2020 4:16 PM  

MarkyMark wrote:I hope I'm wrong; I really do.
No you don't. You really want to be the smart guy, so you can gloat. Privately, but gloating all the same.

Blogger MarkyMark October 30, 2020 4:17 PM  

MordWa,

As one who took part in a poll or two during the 2016 cycle, I saw a few problems with polls. One, what questions are asked? Two, how are they asked? Three, what RESPONSES are available to the participant? Four, is the sample large enough to be valid? Finally, are Dems or GOP over sampled? I'll comment on a couple of those points in more detail...

One major problem with polls is what responses are available? In the one poll I remember, most of the responses were either D or R. What if someone is independent? What if someone would prefer the Libertarian or Green candidate over the D or R? That's one serious problem with polls; they don't get an accurate picture of the true sentiment out there.

Now, in order to be statistically valid; in order to use a sample to guage the overall sentiment of the overall population; the sample must be of a certain size. I don't remember much from statistics class, which I took decades ago, but I do remember that. If the sample size is too small, then it won't be valid.

What Mr. Barnes said is significant. I had pollsters call me up over the last week or so. I hung up on them. When I took part years ago, they seemed to just drag on and on. They told me they only needed 10 minutes, and they took over 30. I was like, enough already! So, when they called me again this past week or so, I hung up on 'em. I have better things to do than waste my time on those a-holes. I suspect that accounts for part of the lowered response rate.

I suspect that the other is because pollsters still call mainly landline phone numbers. I still have a landline. That said, many folks don't; many just use their cell phone as their point of contact. If the majority of people have no landline, then how many potential respondents are being missed by the pollsters?

Finally, I think that Rush is right in that many of the polls are being used to SHAPE news vs. making it. IOW, the MSM is using polls to gaslight the public in to thinking that Biden has a huge lead, that DJT can't win, and those who are voting for DJT might as well go home.

Anyway, I think that the polls are wildly off the mark. How can it even be close when, on one hand, Biden can only draw a handful of people, while OTOH, DJT can fill a stadium (e.g. Tampa) on short notice? It's not even close! Truth be told, there are more people waiting in the bathroom line at a Trump rally than there are attending a Biden campaign event in total.

SO! While I think DJT will win (provided the election is even semi-honest), winning the down ballot races is critical too. The House and Senate are important, because if the Dems have either one or both houses of Congress, DJT's agenda is DOA. The statehouses are critical because the Congressional districts are getting redrawn now that the census is done. GET OUT AND VOTE, Folks!

Blogger phil g October 30, 2020 4:18 PM  

From your keyboard to God's ear. This feels like a civilizational pivot point. Providence almost always delivers the man we need for the time.

Blogger Damelon Brinn October 30, 2020 4:27 PM  

It isn't just non-statisticians who are laughing at the pollsters.

True. I heard a guy today saying the bookmakers think they're all hacks, especially Silver.

Blogger Rex Little October 30, 2020 5:01 PM  

Please give us your home address and phone number so we can call at tell you you are winner when Biden wins!

You'd never get through; my phone's always tied up with people telling me I've won $5.5 million and a Mercedes if I just pay the processing fee with a Walmart gift card. But go ahead and try 4QC-HRLY.

Blogger crescent wrench October 30, 2020 5:15 PM  

Darren Beattie has been sounding the alarm for ages about Obama's IC engineering a color revolution through media manipulation.

This election tests whether it can be done to the United States.

Blogger Goodnight October 30, 2020 5:20 PM  

Those kind of operations may move a few thousand votes down around Bexar and Travis and may influence some state House races, but they can't move enough to make a blip in the statewide Presidential numbers. There are huge vote numbers coming in from north and east Texas. You also have a lot of big counties like Tarrant and Denton with Republican commissioners who would definitely squash that sort of thing. Don't sweat it. Trump takes Texas easily.

Blogger Winterborn October 30, 2020 5:25 PM  

Below is what I was reading/seeing yesterday/today.

Drop the BlackPill.

Look at the Florida numbers already, in the last 6 elections, as Florida goes, so goes the election. Right now voter turnout is massively down among Dem voters. 
In Miami-Dade where Hillary won by 30 (64 to 34) points and still lost the state, its at 38% R to 37% D as of Oct29, and getting worse.  Also, 53% of Dem voters have voted already in FL, Just 25% of Republicans have voted. And as Razorfist puts it "T Money has been saying DON'T F'n vote til the 3rd!" Red Tsunami incoming.

In Palm beach, 57 to 41 in 2016, Oct, 39 Republican to 38 Democrat. Right now it's like the Republican's are beating the Dems in Baltimore. 71% Trump to 23% Biden, Cuban voters for Trump. Clinton had them by 27pts in 2016. 
Nationally, Black males 31% to Trump as well if I remember right.

Broward 67 to 31 in 2016, Oct 29, Biden leading 48 to 28. early vote in 2016 55 to 22. GOP is out performing in every county in FL. And are on track to beat even in Broward. 

GOP on course to crush in NC

2020 AZ GOP Crushing it.  

Meanwhile Biden is campaigning in Minnesota, which has been THE Dem stronghold since 1972. That's not how you play this game.

Philly PA, Biden is 10pts behind Clinton.  Trump is 9pts higher than 2016. in PHILADELPHIA. That wins PA easily.

I've heard but cant source that Trump isn't even hardly doing ad's in FL because it's already over there.  

Running a 3rd time loser for candidate has never worked in American history, And from the administration that literally RESULTED in Trump.  Again, as Razorfist has said "Its like if the GOP had run Dick Cheney in 2012."

Pull up your suspenders, tighten your belt, and flush the BlackPill.

As a side note. Folks if you haven't subbed to something on UATV, do so. Holy crap that is a lot of content already. And it's still baby steps.

Blogger Colonel Blimp October 30, 2020 5:29 PM  

And by that it means she swallows

Blogger map October 30, 2020 5:29 PM  

MarkyMark wrote:Now, in order to be statistically valid; in order to use a sample to guage the overall sentiment of the overall population; the sample must be of a certain size. I don't remember much from statistics class, which I took decades ago, but I do remember that. If the sample size is too small, then it won't be valid.

There is a principle of statistics that, the larger the population you are sampling, the smaller the percentage of that population you need to sample.

For example, if your population is 1,000, then you have to have a sample of 700 for a sound statistical analysis.

If your population is 1,000,000, then you need 3,400 for a proper sample. That is why you only see polls looking at 1,000 people or so. This is correct.

basically, you take your million people, assign a number from 1 to a million, have Excel pick 3,400 at random, and then start calling.

The problem is getting anyone to respond to the call. Now, this would not be a big deal if the non-response rate was symmetrical across all political positions. At best, you can re-run the sample and start over. At worst, you can assume a margin of error.

The non-response rate, however, is not unequal. Trump supporters are not going to admit to some pollster who has their name, address and phone number that they are voting for Trump. This is why you see polls with 385 Democrats, 335 Republicans and 308 independents. They are all skewed because of this selection bias.

As one person wrote here, a typical poll responder is a liberal woman over 50.

Blogger map October 30, 2020 5:51 PM  

Vernon wrote:PredictIt.org is an easy way to bet on the election.

Predicits odds are too low for the probability assigned to a Trump loss.

A Biden bet has an expected value of 32c and a Trump bet has an expected value of 19c. You can't run a betting pool like that. If Biden wins, the House will have to pay the winners.

Blogger Ingot9455 October 30, 2020 7:03 PM  

@81 Look at it this way. If Texas goes blue, then it's time for civil war. You should be loading your weapons, preparing your cover stories, grinding your castor beans, and so on.

Blogger mike October 30, 2020 7:12 PM  

Wait, you think Trump is going to have a third term? Even tho thats constitutionally banned? Come on, man.

Blogger Silent Draco October 30, 2020 7:36 PM  

The low information voters in PA are the ones with signs "Throw out the Lockdown Liberals". Also "Remove the Tyrant Wolf", in his home county. Turnout is quietly rising for Trump, with more turnout in upstate counties - the places where they despise anti-fracking Joe for trying to ruin them.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash October 30, 2020 7:42 PM  

mike wrote:Wait, you think Trump is going to have a third term? Even tho thats constitutionally banned? Come on, man.
The Constitution has been a dead letter for 150 years
It's been changed before, it can be changed again.

Blogger My Comment October 30, 2020 9:35 PM  

One of our biggest advantages and a primary reason Trump will win is that Democrats are proud to live in an echo chamber. They have no idea what normal people, especially of the white male variety, believe and experience in life.

Take the lockdowns. They are panic porn for liberal women who love being hysterical and virtue signaling that they are obedient.

Most white men, especially, don't want them. Men want to get on with their lives. So, the Democrats are promoting house arrest and face diapers as their main campaign pledges.

Same with blm/antifa and the riots and looting. I think they are starting to see that they don't resonate but they have backed themselves into a corner and can't act decisively. Just understanding normal people would have told them letting cities burn and be looted for 4 months isn't a winning strategy.

As the Democrats continue to appeal to hysterical women there is an opportunity for Republicans to become the male and married female party. That would require them though to not go back to cucking. It will also require them to commit the sin of expanding their base by registering non voting white working class whites.

Blogger xevious2030 October 30, 2020 10:05 PM  

“Even tho thats constitutionally banned?”

A trend started by a white supremest whose statue is on the list. The Left will love it. Just like they love legislation by the Supreme Court man, especially with ACB there. Besides, Soros had a term from at least 1992 election, clear unto the 2016 election. By those metrics, The God Emperor can stay in as long as he likes.

Blogger eclecticmn October 30, 2020 11:14 PM  

The MN gov Walz limited the Trump Rochester rally today to 250 people because COVID.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/desperate_dems_limit_attendance_at_trump_rally_in_minnesota_today_to_250.html

Blogger Cygnus X October 31, 2020 1:37 AM  

@93 Vlad

Same here in SoCal. I stopped by a Republican HQ today and they were sold out completely, literally everything gone. Lady who's been volunteering in the same space said she's had to re-order at least five times and has never seen anything like it since Reagan. Virtually no signs, stickers or much of anything for Biden. Steady streams of Trump-festooned vehicle parades all over the valley and even on the west side. Right now as I type I can hear cars honking in support of a small late night rally down the street. Crazy. I've dared to dream a few times, just what if...?

Blogger John Atria October 31, 2020 2:14 AM  

The one sign that would be genuinely worrying for Trump's reelection odds would be if no one was showing up to his rallies. Even with Covid he's still getting strong crowds. Plus, it helps that generally speaking, Republicans are less worried about Covid and won't have an issue showing up to vote in person on election day.

Post a Comment

Rules of the blog

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts