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Thursday, November 05, 2020

Why Trump will win PA

The President losing PA is not one of the Woes being Contemplated by Alexander Macris:

If you’ve been following the mainstream media, you’ve probably read that Trump intends to file a lawsuit in Pennsylvania to “stop counting votes.” Most likely, this has been presented as an outrageous evil, unjustifiable by any standards of common decency, and grossly unconstitutional. Is that really the case? Or is it more complex than that?

There will be a lawsuit, no doubt; and it will involve a lot of votes being thrown out. The plaintiff (Trump and/or the Republicans) will win, because Pennsylvania’s highest court has almost certainly violated the Constitution of the United States. That’s why, in the weeks ahead, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is going to rule in favor of Trump....

In 2019, the PA legislature passed a law called Act 77 that permitted all voters to cast their ballots by mail but (in Justice Alito’s words) “unambiguously required that all mailed ballots be received by 8 p.m. on election day.” The exact text is 2019 Pa. Leg. Serv. Act 2019-77, which stated: “No absentee ballot under this subsection shall be counted which is received in the office of the county board of elections later than eight o'clock P.M. on the day of the primary or election.” I agree with Justice Alito: That is unambiguous.

Act 77 also provided that if this portion of the law was invalidated, that much of the rest of Act 77, including its liberalization of mail-in voting, would also be void. The exact text is: “Sections 1, 2, 3, 3.2, 4, 5, 5.1, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 12 of this act are nonseverable. If any provision of this act or its application to any person or circumstance is held invalid, the remaining provisions or applications of this act are void.”

To again put this into common English, the Pennsylvania legislature passed a law that said mail-in ballots had to arrive by 8PM on election day to be counted, and then said that if the Court over-ruled that law, the entire law that permitted mail-in ballots was invalid.

In the face of this clear text, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, by a vote of four to three, made the following decrees, summarized here by SCOTUS:

  1. Mailed ballots don’t need to be received by a election day. Instead, ballots can be accepted if they are postmarked on or before election day and are received within three days thereafter. Note that this is directly contravenes the text above.
  2. A mailed ballot with no postmark, or an illegible postmark, must be regarded as timely if it is received by that same date.

In doing so, PAs’ high court expressly acknowledged that “the statutory provision mandating receipt by election day was unambiguous” and conceded the law was “constitutional,” but still re-wrote the law because it thought it needed to do so in the face of a “natural disaster.” It justified its right to do so under the Free and Equal Elections Cause of the PA State Constitution.

It looks like a sound analysis, and furthermore, indicates that the Trump campaign understood and anticipated the shenanigans in Pennsylvania. This, along with the way that the usual shenanigans in Florida were shut down, suggests that the other shenanigans in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin were also anticipated.

Read the whole thing there.

Labels: ,

73 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous November 05, 2020 5:36 AM  

Trump Won!

Don't stop saying it.

Blogger Kerry November 05, 2020 5:37 AM  

"suggests that the other shenanigans in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin were also anticipated."

Really well put. Trump and his team saw this one coming a mile away. I want to see this brought to the SCOTUS. Maybe Trump's true purpose was to shine a light on this corruption which has been going on for years.

Blogger Harambe November 05, 2020 5:48 AM  

I'm not even American and this pisses me off.

Blogger My Comment November 05, 2020 5:50 AM  

I can't see the US Supreme Court ruling in Trump's favor. Roberts, most likely Gorsuch and possibly ACB are compromised. The only way Trump will win is if the Deep State decides that the cheating was too flagrant and they need to keep up the pretense of democracy a little while longer

Blogger George D. November 05, 2020 5:53 AM  

I have only one question.

What's best in life?

Blogger Anna G. November 05, 2020 5:54 AM  

Thanks for keeping morale high here, Vox. Your blog has been an oasis.

Blogger Unknown November 05, 2020 5:58 AM  

It sounds good. It sounds great. Too bad the SCOTUS is almost hopelessly cucked.

Blogger My Comment November 05, 2020 5:59 AM  

The Pennsylvania governor just announced that there are millions of mail in ballots left to be counted. They have abandoned all pretense of honesty. It would have been better if they were more subtle but they understand they will never be prosecuted by either party. So why not flagrantly cheat and see if they can get away with it

Blogger Iskander Magnus November 05, 2020 6:05 AM  

Let’s hope SCOTUS believes in the foundations of Western Civilisation. Not JudeoChrist’s Tikkun Olam

Blogger McChuck November 05, 2020 6:10 AM  

There is no law, only Zuul.
there will be war.

Blogger Naaaaaaaah I'm Good November 05, 2020 6:16 AM  

The god-Emperor has prepared for this.

OH YEAH. You ain't seen nuthin' yet.

Blogger U November 05, 2020 6:28 AM  

sorry, simpleton Kangaroo riding Aussie here; just say trump does win PA, NC, GA and AK (total 54), since it looks like he won't win NV, then with the 54+214=268 he will fall short ??

Blogger Andrew Jackson November 05, 2020 6:28 AM  

The Biden scum will never be inaugurated!!!

Blogger jijijeac November 05, 2020 6:42 AM  

seems like a closed and shut case. hope the scotus that the repubs built the last 4 years will do its job.

Anonymous Anonymous November 05, 2020 6:44 AM  

Certainly emphasises the importance of ACB's nomination and confirmation and the repeated statements that "we need 9 justices on the SC."
Knowing this was coming, having a gridlocked Supreme Court would have been no good to anyone.

Blogger Ransom Smith November 05, 2020 6:49 AM  

Time to to the ante.
File lawsuits in Virginia, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota.
Make them play non stop defense.

Blogger MC Duquesne November 05, 2020 7:01 AM  

Act 77 is a slog to go through, but this part caught my eye

(k) The Secretary of the Commonwealth may develop an electronic system through which all qualified electors may apply for an absentee ballot and request permanent absentee voter status under subsection (e.1), provided the system is able to capture a digitized or electronic signature of the applicant. A county board of elections shall treat any application or request received through the electronic system as if the application or request had been submitted on a paper form or any other format used by the county.

If Act 77 was invalidated, then that invalidates all the online registrations and absentee ballot requests. Once those ballots are thrown out the God Emperor easily strides to victory.

Blogger basementhomebrewer November 05, 2020 7:02 AM  

VA is a sure fire candidate for a lawsuit based on vote totals at 10:30pm with the big democrats counties reporting 90% + results. It was highly improbable that they made up the deficit.

Blogger Daniel November 05, 2020 7:02 AM  

would love to read an opinion from the Legal Legion abut the whole situation

Blogger Katusov November 05, 2020 7:02 AM  

I certainly hope Mr. Macris is correct. I remain optimistic, but hope is not a plan. The thought of leaving this decision to a corrupted court system does not give me great confidence. I am trying to come up with an plan within my means. I see crisis times ahead no mater who wins the election. A fourth turning.

Blogger Silent Draco November 05, 2020 7:18 AM  

Wolf says millions more? No. Voting in PA is already 70% of the total adult population, before taking out aliens, illegals, and felons. The state sees how red the results were, Wolf and his cronies could lose a lot more.

Blogger Kerry November 05, 2020 7:21 AM  

There were probably rumblings of this going down for months around Trump's inner-circle.

Like you said - ACB' s spot on the bench had to happen.

Blogger RobertDWood November 05, 2020 7:24 AM  

Nice

Blogger Dole November 05, 2020 7:29 AM  

Has anyone pieced together why they are delaying the count so wrong? Trying to come up with ballots but failing?

Blogger Dole November 05, 2020 7:31 AM  

@12

I was thinking he won't win Nevada, sure fraud in state, but I am not certain anymore. It is taking too long. Not calling it yet.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2020 7:33 AM  

Time to up the ante.
File lawsuits in Virginia, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota.


Absolutely. Any state that's close is within the margin of fraud. Everyone knows that fraud overwhelmingly goes to the Democrat, so any recount or closer look will help Trump.

Blogger PewienBear(Mac) November 05, 2020 7:38 AM  

We want 4 More Years, nobody said it will come easy.

Blogger Johnny November 05, 2020 7:44 AM  

Lets not make Trump into the second coming. His short term purpose is to reelect Trump. As it happens that is strongly in our interest also given the transparent fraud that is taking place. We are now in the process of finding out whether or not we have a working court system. Lacking that, the Democrat party becomes the new communist party in all but name. What we are seeing, if they can pull this off, is a transfer of power from the Constitution and the elected officials over to those who control who gets elected. If there is one, it is the king maker, not the king, who is the true power.

If the Democrats can pull this off, it is the functional equivalent of how the USSR functioned after the communist revolution, and prior to Stalin seizing power and using fear of death as the method of controlling people.

Blogger Skyler the Weird November 05, 2020 7:45 AM  

The pretense of Democratcy

Blogger camcleat November 05, 2020 7:47 AM  

Ransom Smith wrote:Time to to the ante.

File lawsuits in Virginia, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota.

Make them play non stop defense.



Oh, now this I like. *THIS* is how we will win.

They are on the ropes; the time to go for the throat and annihilate the enemy is now.

We should accept nothing short of utter destruction of the Dems/Left as a political or cultural force in this nation.

Go Get 'Em, President Trump!

Blogger peacefulposter November 05, 2020 7:47 AM  

Is it just me, or are the vote counters at many of these problem polling stations mostly of a certain demographic?

Upgrading from stealing bikes to stealing elections, apparently.

Blogger Doktor Jeep November 05, 2020 7:50 AM  

So it's up to the ring wraiths.
Ring Wraith Roberts is probably getting an "or else" message with a wink and a nod.

Blogger Naaaaaaaah I'm Good November 05, 2020 7:52 AM  

Trying to explain things legally is futile. The whole process is Byzantine. They can't get around 77, they can only go through it. There's nothing on the other side for the Left legally, unless they invalidate it in some fancy (and illegal) way.

Which again, is the realm that we're living in.

How can an avowed Communist/Socialist, Bernie, run for President of the United States? How can he even take part in the government of the country? Well, BEING a Communist isn't illegal, but acting like a Communist IS. That's why the DNC had to lock him out, because if he won, it throws the entire security process of the ENTIRE government out the fucking window. It would invalidate every oath and every security procedure based on those oaths. They like trouble, but they hate chaos...they can't control that.

We're already seeing perjury on a large scale because it isn't being prosecuted. You can tack it on, esp. if you're going after someone, but it's an afterthought.

So you can argue Rule of Law 'till you're stroking the fuck out, go ask St. Tommy More where that got him. The bottom line is FORCE, or the THREAT OF FORCE. That can occur the easy way or the hard way.

Blogger pyrrhus November 05, 2020 7:58 AM  

Time to up the ante.
File lawsuits in Virginia, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota.

Yes, and don't forget AZ, which the Dems are also trying to steal, and the AZ Senate race....

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 05, 2020 8:03 AM  

#31 peacefulposter, in case you haven't seen it on twitter our side is passing around a 30 second video of a black guy vote counter in GA I think throwing away and even flipping off ballots. Of course twitter had removed it a few times from a few accounts but it is out in the wild.

IMO we need to remove state power from people with such biases and/or possible extreme racial biases.

Blogger Stilicho November 05, 2020 8:07 AM  

We all know Roberts is compromised. No such evidence to date about Gorsuch and certainly not ACB, but even if your speculation is true, either side can blackmail them. The point is, despair is without value. Have a plan. Then have contingency plans for when others fail. We are never out of the fight.

Blogger Mackay Rippey November 05, 2020 8:13 AM  

Great find. Thanks for sharing. It really is a battle of Rule of Law v. Greed.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd November 05, 2020 8:13 AM  

My Comment wrote:... but they understand they will never be prosecuted by either party.
In past years their understanding would have been correct. It remains to be seen whether they are right this year.
Johnny wrote:We are now in the process of finding out whether or not we have a working court system.
I have said we are about to find out whether the Trump judges are functionally different from the Bush, Clinton and 0bammy judges.
Mr.MantraMan wrote:IMO we need to remove state power from people with such biases and/or possible extreme racial biases.
We need to stop calling them minorities: they are guest races. They need to be well behaved guests, or go home.

Blogger boron November 05, 2020 8:20 AM  

The Socialist-Progressives tried this with Al Franken and were allowed to get away with it.
This is the result of not whacking that particular mole much harder.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2020 8:21 AM  

Has anyone pieced together why they are delaying the count so long? Trying to come up with ballots but failing?

Partly that, yes. Remember that these people don't have much foresight and they engage in a lot of magical thinking. If there aren't enough legit votes today, maybe there will be tomorrow if they want it badly enough.

But it's also for the same reason they dragged out the pandemic crisis: they're hoping Americans will get sick of it and blame Trump for holding out. He's going to get very weak support from establishment Republicans like those in the Senate. Now that they've secured their majority, they probably think a Harris presidency doesn't look so bad. It would be great for those running in 2022. So they want to isolate Trump and make him look like he's wasting everyone's time with a hopeless struggle. That shows how little they understand Americans, because there's no one we like better.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 05, 2020 8:26 AM  

#38 Cowherd, yeah I get it but we lack state power and pretending to it is basic conservative stoogery in the phoney political theatre where the left pretends to plucky insurgent good guys versus Bow Ties of Reactionary Oppression.

Second I have a bit of sympathy, I said a bit of sympathy for Africans descended from slaves, and I'm not going to pretend that after some magic thinking we are putting them on boats for W.Africa or something. But they are responsible for their fates, they bring woes upon themselves, not my fault, not my problem unless they make it, then eff em.

As for post 1965 neo-colonizers, travel works both ways.

Blogger Tom Hyland November 05, 2020 8:42 AM  

Lisa Haven has produced an 8 minute video revealing the number tallies appearing for all to see. This is fast and excellent reporting revealing the criminality. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgRvjgk_Oj8&feature=youtu.be

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants November 05, 2020 9:33 AM  

I want the huge takeaway from this election for the right to be, IT SHOULD HAVE NEVER EVER EVER BEEN THIS CLOSE.
This is not the president's fault, nor is it the voter's fault.
This is 100% squarely on demography. Sure,there was tons of cheating, but AZ, NC, TX, GA, and FLA have been reliably bright red for 40 yrs.
I have been fighting with the "as long as they come here legally," Conservatives about this for decades, and for years my pinned tweet was- GA, NC, AZ, TX, FLA-the one thing they have in common is that they will soon be purple and blue, never again red states.
Instead we have the usual suspects fawning over the tiny increase in minority voting while white men voted for the GOP in lower levels than ever before.
Trump needed real nationalists advising him, not Javanka.

Blogger Silly but True November 05, 2020 9:36 AM  

The problem here is not anticipating the level if corruption: how will an outside auditor tell the difference between a ballot legitimately postmarked on election day vs. one fraudulently postmarked even today with an 11/3 date?

They can’t. It will be counted.

Blogger Naaaaaaaah I'm Good November 05, 2020 9:42 AM  

@37

I would say Rule of Law vs. Tyranny, which equals Evil.

Blogger hideous November 05, 2020 9:49 AM  

U,
He should win AZ as well.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CortesSteve/status/1324128709092192258

It's pure propaganda to have given AZ to Biden, and only by Fox News. RINO traitors are embedded and constantly jockeying for position depending on perceived political winds.

I don't see how Trump can fail to reach 270 except for getting away with rampant cheating in one of the 4 states.
And they won't get away with it.

Blogger Alexei November 05, 2020 9:57 AM  

ACB had a chance to shut down this PA nonsense last week, before the election. But she chose not to.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd November 05, 2020 10:10 AM  

Mr.MantraMan wrote:Second I have a bit of sympathy, I said a bit of sympathy for Africans descended from slaves, and I'm not going to pretend that after some magic thinking we are putting them on boats for W.Africa or something. But they are responsible for their fates, they bring woes upon themselves, not my fault, not my problem unless they make it, then eff em.
Let's try that guest race rhetoric a bit, see what it accomplishes, if anything. They aren't minority races, they're guest races. Guests, not minorities.

Blogger aps November 05, 2020 10:11 AM  

Vox has made several references to statistical anomalies. One of the biggest of these is the level at which the mail in ballots are skewed towards Biden. Consider the balance of a recent batch of mail-in ballots from Georgia:

Trump: 1941
Biden: 6410

So roughly 75/25 in favour of Biden. Most mail in ballots appear to be similarly skewed.

Now the normie cope for the cognitive dissonance produced by such an extreme imbalance is Covid. Democrats take Covid more seriously and are more willing to take precautions to stay away from public spaces. Republicans are more likely to be willing to do their voting on the day.

But how does covid modify behavioural patterns across the political divide? In short, it doesn't, or at least not anywhere approaching the degree needed to produce an 75/25 imbalance. Consider the below article:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-and-democrats-see-covid-19-very-differently-is-that-making-people-sick/

Despite having very different perceptions of the virus, Rs and Ds weren't behaving all that differently. There was only a 10% difference in people who had gone out for non-essential goods and services. There was a similar(ish) difference in those who had gone out to socialise. While voting falls into an altogether different category, there's absolutely nothing to indicate that the two sides are behaving anywhere near differently enough to explain an 75/25 skew in mail in ballots.

This scans pretty well with my own experience. I found age and health to be more likely to keep someone from venturing outside. I am but a humble data point, but it makes sense. Young people aren't scared of covid, the elderly are and the elderly aren't voting blue.

Blogger crescent wrench November 05, 2020 10:26 AM  

Silly but True wrote:The problem here is not anticipating the level if corruption: how will an outside auditor tell the difference between a ballot legitimately postmarked on election day vs. one fraudulently postmarked even today with an 11/3 date?

They can’t. It will be counted.


Or..
A re-vote could be ordered.
Or the cheating districts simply stricken from the record as punishment for fraud.

Blogger Dan in Georgia November 05, 2020 10:45 AM  

https://youtu.be/6MieQ_G6V3M
Long vid but ToreSays points out that only 80-90 million Americans are eligible to vote. Combined totals for Biden and Trump? 130 million. I would guess more than half of Biden’s vote total is fake.

Blogger xevious2030 November 05, 2020 10:52 AM  

The plan? To recognize that there is no sanctity of the vote. 1,000 retards outvoting 1 not retard, is retarded. 1,000 wicked outvoting 1 not wicked, is wickedness. There is the transfer of power, by peaceful means, or by war. And there is a divergence of irreconcilability, whereby peaceful means do not bridge the gap of acceptability.

Going outside the rules, combined with censorship and attempted coup, is a demonstration this gap has been recognized and risked by one party. The only reason there has not been war, is that the other party has not taken in the full implications, and is trying a high trust approach to a low trust aggressor. The idiocy of “now don’t do that, because it might boomerang on you someday,” to someone that is not honestly reasonable in like kind. That war is only prevented if we are not screwed. That there are those serving Satan, and those not, which, whatever one’s personal failings, provides an Absolutely Clear Moral High Ground. These are things which not only must become crystal clear, but loved and cherished until they are lived and have life.

The plan is to make your place in the world. The plan is to win, the same as the plan of the Enemy. PA is the beginning. You pick a side, and you fight, because.

Blogger Silly but True November 05, 2020 10:58 AM  

Crescent,
I think you overestimate the proactivity of your average federal judge. Even Scalia famously wrote in his Herrera opinion: “ Mere factual innocence is no reason not to carry out a death sentence properly reached.”

If you’re looking for someone to bend over backwards to toss out a Nov. 3 post-parked ballot, you’re going to be looking a long time. Unless the case lands in a rare judge’s hands, we’re just not going to get such creative solutions. The presumption of regularity weighs high.

Blogger crescent wrench November 05, 2020 11:20 AM  

I'm getting frustrated at the amateur-hour court proceedings i'm seeing.

2 full days of stacking up fraud (90%+ biden margins) in Philly and now they finally get a court order to watch the remainder long after the damage is done.

Blogger crescent wrench November 05, 2020 11:41 AM  

Dan in Georgia wrote:https://youtu.be/6MieQ_G6V3M

Long vid but ToreSays points out that only 80-90 million Americans are eligible to vote. Combined totals for Biden and Trump? 130 million. I would guess more than half of Biden’s vote total is fake.


This is believable, but based on what figures?
Keep in mind the census is due this year, so the previous population figures are 10 years old.

Blogger crescent wrench November 05, 2020 11:48 AM  

Silly but True wrote:Crescent,

I think you overestimate the proactivity of your average federal judge. Even Scalia famously wrote in his Herrera opinion: “ Mere factual innocence is no reason not to carry out a death sentence properly reached.”

If you’re looking for someone to bend over backwards to toss out a Nov. 3 post-parked ballot, you’re going to be looking a long time. Unless the case lands in a rare judge’s hands, we’re just not going to get such creative solutions. The presumption of regularity weighs high.


In previous elections we haven't had whistle-blowers in the postal service destroying the presumption of regularity with testimony to god knows how many fraudulent postmarks.

It's a shame Trump's personnel decisions are such crap, because had he replaced the military brass the way Obama did he could just declare martial law over this and force a complete revote in-person 2 weeks from now.

Blogger crescent wrench November 05, 2020 11:51 AM  

@53

The presumption of regularity seems to have just flown out the window in PA:

BREAKING: Philadelphia is barring legal observers with a Court Order from observing vote counting

Blogger phunktor November 05, 2020 11:53 AM  

That IS very trout milk.

Blogger dienw November 05, 2020 12:25 PM  

crescent wrench wrote:@53

The presumption of regularity seems to have just flown out the window in PA:

BREAKING: Philadelphia is barring legal observers with a Court Order from observing vote counting

Need link.
I did find this
Mail-In Ballot Counting Temporarily Halted In Philadelphia, Resumed After Compromise Negotiated
By CBS3 Staff


One cannot see much at 6' away.

Blogger jg November 05, 2020 2:09 PM  

'1) Dems stole WI and MI
2) Dems stopped counting in PA NV AZ GA and NC to prevent Trump from winning them and figure out how to steal more votes than originally stolen' by 'manufacturing fake mail-in ballots in counties where the vote-counters could be relied upon not to care about checking for fakeness'

Blogger Macs November 05, 2020 2:16 PM  

Oh no, ALL the mail in get chucked! That's awesome.

Blogger crescent wrench November 05, 2020 2:37 PM  

@59

It's all over poso's feed.
At this point we're also witnessing the Philly sheriff refusing to enforce the court order.

There is now a very, very rich case to have the whole city's results thrown right out.

Blogger Silent Draco November 05, 2020 2:55 PM  

Pa legislature has looked for an excuse to omit Philadelphia, for literally centuries. They can vote to remove from results, if someone has a spine.

Blogger xevious2030 November 05, 2020 3:50 PM  

1)2) one of them ought to be close enough to steal back. How solid is their presumed case on that one?

Blogger map November 05, 2020 4:03 PM  

From AC:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1275024974579982336

On the Chans, some think this tweet By President Trump was foreshadowing a trap to catch fraudulent voting. Several anons have come on claiming inside knowledge, citing previous articles on DHS’s massive focus on voter fraud over the last two years, and indicating DHS has somehow serialized ballots from important states covertly with blockchain, using invisible water marks or microdots, and that will be revealed in court, causing the true extent of the voter fraud to be unveiled as millions of ballots are shown to have been printed off by some third party and inserted into the system. Now that they mention it, my ballot did have a very small version of one of those square two-dimensional checkerboard barcode symbols on it, something I have not seen in previous years. I saw it at the time, and thought it curious, as it could easily hide an identifier that could link me to my vote.

Blogger xevious2030 November 05, 2020 4:06 PM  

Also, the ones they increase the numbers to create the appearance of invulnerability, need to be checked for one. They fake, like they did the polls.

Blogger eclecticme November 05, 2020 4:26 PM  

Report from on the ground in PA. Some new info.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/11/stealing_pennsylvania.html
Stealing Pennsylvania
By Lynne Lechter

Blogger eclecticme November 05, 2020 5:32 PM  

I am just posting this. I do not understand it.
https://twitter.com/sellbooze/status/1324385099161473027

Hedonist
@sellbooze
🚨Benford's Law analysis indicates potential election chicanery in Wisconsin🚨

Summary: the vote totals in WI appear to be fudged by a human

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 05, 2020 5:58 PM  

eclecticme wrote:I do not understand it.
Benford's law states that in in any NATURAL set of numbers, there is a natural distribution of digits which is not random. The first digit is more likely to be a 1 than a 2, and more likely to be a 2 than a 3.
A random distribution would show no significant trend. Humans making up numbers tend to use an inaccurate random distribution that, for the 1st digit, peaks at 5 rather than 1, because it seems more random.
The distribution is different for each digit position, but the law is consistently observed everywhere in nature.
I haven't done the math myself, but the charts I have seen so Trump's vote totals with a fairly close Benford distribution, and Biden's in Detroit and Milwaukee with a very obvious bias towards a 5 in the initial position, a marker of fraud.

Blogger crescent wrench November 05, 2020 6:08 PM  

eclecticme wrote:I am just posting this. I do not understand it.

https://twitter.com/sellbooze/status/1324385099161473027

Hedonist

@sellbooze

🚨Benford's Law analysis indicates potential election chicanery in Wisconsin🚨

Summary: the vote totals in WI appear to be fudged by a human


There are long threads detailing the analysis, but they're running statistical analysis on these vote counts and they're failing tests to prove they're not manipulated.

(in other words: statistical proof of election fraud)

Data scientists who are familiar with this have been trying to get hold of the GOP/Trump campaign because they need all the data (it costs ~$100,000 to obtain) in order to provide a proof rigorous enough to present to the courts.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2020 6:36 PM  

To add to what Snidely said: this means precincts in those locations were making up totals. In other words, the ballots don't exist to match the boost they gave Biden. Statistical analysis isn't going to convince the public there was massive fraud, but it could tell Trump's people where to look and help them get to those ballots before more can be created to make up the difference.

Blogger Bezzle November 06, 2020 2:52 AM  

@46. hideous November 05, 2020 9:49 AM
It's pure propaganda to have given AZ to Biden, and only by Fox News....

Did you see Hannity tonight after Trump's 15min no-questions presser? An hour of fraud videos. And the Arizona counter-gambit is now swinging back to Trump after the trap has been sprung.

Q told us the deception would be necessary, and Fox lent an assist to hoodwink the democrats into thinking that Arizona was in the bag for them.

Blogger The Wooper Nation November 06, 2020 5:00 PM  

I have done the benford's Law analysis of Milwaukee, Mecklenburg, and Atlanta (Fulton) by precinct. Trumps vote totals all fall perfectly in line with the Law. Bidens do not, at all. And Mecklenburg is so bad its beyond statistically improbable, its impossible. Still gathering data to run the other counties.

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