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Saturday, March 20, 2021

Planning to lose a proxy war

The neoclowns running the Biden Not-Administration appear to be planning to lose a war between Ukraine and Russia in order to sabotage the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project. 

The NAF, to be clear, doesn’t stand any chance in a full scale Ukrainian assault. Even in 2014, when the Ukrainian Army was much less organized, Russian artillery and EW intervention proved critical. The Ukrainian military has since had more than half a decade of getting 5% of Ukraine’s GDP lavished on it. While Ukraine’s GDP is unimpressive, this is still a high numerator and Russian involvement would have to be more overt than in 2014 if the Donbass is to be saved.

Considering that 100,000’s of Donbass residents are now also Russian citizens, not doing so would discredit Putin domestically.

This, then, might be the game plan. By provoking a Russian intervention, it could finally provide the US with the arguments to finally pressure Germany into shutting down Nord Stream 2, just a few months before its projected completion. (Contra popular conceptions, Germany is more invested into NS2 than is Russia, and stands to lose relatively more from a last minute torpedoing of the project). NS2 threatens to deprive Ukraine of $2-3 billion dollars in annual transit fees. These are not insignificant sums for a country with a GDP of $150 billion and are well worth the lives of a few hundred Ukrainian soldiers, who – as Strana‘s sources report – plan to stop the offensive and probably retreat should Russian troops go in....

There’s another piece of the puzzle that slid into place today. Biden told Putin that “he will pay a price” for his “meddling” in the US elections on coming to power in January. Soon after, no other than RT chief editor Margarita Simonyan was in the LDNR, demanding that Russia take it home in a conference dedicated to the “Doctrine of the Russian Donbass.” I would say that this is unlikely to have been a coincidence.

This strategy may appear to be insane from a conventional view of military strategy. But remember, the neoclowns core philosophy is inversive and they have made an art of winning through losing and playing the victim. 

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53 Comments:

Blogger Derangement Syndrome March 20, 2021 8:43 AM  

The US altered State Department will have Ukraine initiate a military response from Russia, the Ukrainians will cry foul, and the Democrat party axillary force known as the US Mainstream Media, will highlight a story about how Russian bombs killed a Ukrainian Wedding Party (extra points for irony) or something to that effect, in order to push War on the American People. We resisted the "White Helmets" in Syria, will we have the same resolve for the "White Helmets" (literally "White Hats") of Ukraine?

I know I do.

Blogger Stilicho March 20, 2021 8:45 AM  

How can the neoclowns lose if more Christians get killed regardless of other factors? That's a perennial neoclown lining to every otherwise useless war cloud.

Blogger Katusov March 20, 2021 9:14 AM  

The Saker has a good article on his take of the upcoming war in Ukraine. https://thesaker.is/is-the-ukraine-on-the-brink-of-war-again/

Blogger Dole March 20, 2021 9:23 AM  

Seems that the winning through losing strategy (the same strategy cuckservatives are still waiting to conserve anything) has come to its end. Putin and China are both openly mocking the Not-President, Not-Commander-in-Chief.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan March 20, 2021 9:28 AM  

Whatever the Chinese want they will get out of the Greenscreen administration. Kratman in "Red Horse" wrote about the sitting on a hill watching two tigers fight and I think that fits the bill here. The Deep State is up in Alaska performing sell out theater for the Chinese and doing a good job of it.

In 2008 Russia went for the fast break on that clown in Georgia, but my guess here keep a hot war going by allowing the stooge army from Ukraine some territory then wear it down till the Ukrainian State starts to teeter and that tar baby becomes a drag on what Saker calls "Uncle Shmuel." That's my WAG.

Blogger van helsing March 20, 2021 9:30 AM  

or, by making us lose, while they make money off the op.

Blogger Brett baker March 20, 2021 9:31 AM  

Nord Stream 2 goes down, Russia collapses, we loot like it's 1999! Sounds like a workable strategy for the neoclowns. Whether or not it actually works is irrelevant.

Blogger Jose Miguel March 20, 2021 10:06 AM  

SV2 during down could possibly aggravate gas prices. Given how sensitive the French wiring class were to a small diesel tax, Biden could sacrifice the EU's already short future lifespan for a small win against Putin. The Troskyite neoCons are the most petty group of people in history.

Blogger pyrrhus March 20, 2021 10:18 AM  

I love that backup plan for the UkrainoNazis--run!

Blogger Canada78Bear March 20, 2021 10:40 AM  

The neoclowns have no skin in the game. They are the ones egging on the fighters thinking to share the spoils and have none of the risk.

Like collateralized loan products.

Blogger GeronL March 20, 2021 10:49 AM  

Ukraine has no real military power to fight Russia. It'd be crazy. There is no scenario where that ends well for Ukraine.

Blogger Doktor Jeep March 20, 2021 10:58 AM  

So they start something. The Russians do what's necessary. They win. Then....
"Oh my gawd! Look what these Russians did! It's annudah shoah!"

Blogger DrivingDissent March 20, 2021 10:58 AM  

If War, Wouldn't Putin annex additional security buffer zone territory? Putin could then use the land taken as a point of negotiation inviting international peacekeepers to up the Drama further humiliatingly the Ukrainians and the neocon's backing them.. I suspect the sell to the Ukrainians is that a show of strength will even if ultimately unsuccessful somehow increase national pride and unity showing the great improvement in the nations military prowess.

If the result then is not just a Humiliating loss in not taking Donbass but losing additional territory which is then proffered up to be protected by foreigners the humiliation might implode the government. They are betting Alpha Putin will not dare to roll the dice and Escalate the conflict, Gammas and their scheming it never ends..

These are plans made by emotional reasoning and not a reasoned assessment of the assets and dispositions at play. Russia's strengths cannot be accurately determined by GDP. Russia has often hidden their capabilities to invite enemies into over extending themselves. A price is going to be paid for the Hubris being wagered.

Blogger Darren March 20, 2021 10:59 AM  

"Down goes Biden! Down goes Biden! Down goes Biden!"

THREE TIMES.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/03/20/white-house-says-joe-biden-knocked-over-gust-wind-i-believe/

...it's like the movie has entered the Third Act already, end game for Xiden and the script writers are making it publicly known.

Blogger van helsing March 20, 2021 11:29 AM  

OT superprank (?) at the link, and see who the pic of "partner matt lashey" is... https://www.google.com/search?q=richard+grenell&

Blogger Crew March 20, 2021 11:31 AM  

No doubt the Russians are too dumb to figure out a way to prevent this from coming to pass.

Blogger RadixMalorum March 20, 2021 11:45 AM  

Defeating inversion seems like it will take ruthlessness that a high trust society isn’t capable of. What other way is there?

Blogger Jpc March 20, 2021 11:49 AM  

The Germans are in a bit of a spot.
Lot's of cheaper Russian gas.
Or fracked expensive LPG from the US and the gulf.
And the additional LPG storage costs
Involved.
European energy is going to get very expensive.

Blogger cheddarman March 20, 2021 11:54 AM  

THe neoclowns are cannibalizing the US Empire to win short term "victories." Eventually there will be nothing left for them to devour and their reign of degeneracy will be over.

Blogger Pope Cleophus I March 20, 2021 12:11 PM  

I don't find this surprising at all. The US helped kill the South Stream gas pipeline from Russia through the Black Sea and/or Turkey once that I remember by leaning on Bulgaria. The US has been trying to kill Nord Stream 2 since it was on the drawing board. The current situation fits a pattern that has long been established in US-Ukraine relations. You are our proxy, do as we say. We will look the other way while you loot the country. This has been going on since the USSR dissolved. The US is, once again, provoking Ukraine to return to war for glory and ethnic cleansing. The reality will be significantly different - balkanization. Ukraine may have the initial upper hand when hostilities start up, but the LPR and DPR militaries will counter punch and the Ukrainian Army will begin to disintegrate. No one wants to own any part of the country except Crimea. Galicia is full of Russian hating Banderists. The rest of the country is more corrupt than all of the EU.

Blogger John Williams March 20, 2021 12:23 PM  

Is Biden still tied to the Ukrainian gas companies? There may be more strings here than are obvious.

Blogger Reader March 20, 2021 12:31 PM  

...(((playing the victim))).

Blogger Harambe March 20, 2021 12:31 PM  

Is it all still really as "simple" as fighting over oil?

Blogger Chris Lopes March 20, 2021 12:38 PM  

Yes, provoking a conflict with a superpower for an issue that is not in our national interests, is a terrific idea. Meanwhile, Slow Joe is expending great effort to polish Xi's knob. We are in the best of hands.

Blogger Jpc March 20, 2021 1:34 PM  

So the Chinese have (with the aid of corporate America) hollowed out US industrial capability.
And Russia are the real threat.
Okay!

Blogger Pathfinderlight March 20, 2021 1:35 PM  

Biden accusing anyone of meddling in elections is rich, seeing as how he is the benefitiary of a fraud-induced fake selection.

Blogger RobertDWood March 20, 2021 1:44 PM  

This type of syracuse expedition thinking is what TGE saved us from.

Blogger Wyndie March 20, 2021 2:03 PM  

America is no longer a high trust society.

Blogger Pathfinderlight March 20, 2021 2:13 PM  

In talking to people from Ukraine, they're pretty much all convinced that the government could have dealt with the rebels if they wanted to. But since there are rebels, the military gets additional money that can be sucked on by the corrupt businessmen.

That sure sounds familiar.

Fighting Russia is a different story. Ukraine is perfect territory to attack into with tanks, which Russia has just spent the last 5years modernizing. During that time, Ukraine has been busy squandering its money.

Blogger VFM #7634 March 20, 2021 2:41 PM  

Defeating inversion seems like it will take ruthlessness that a high trust society isn’t capable of. What other way is there?

Yeah, at some point we'll have to understand that trying to be the side of law and order has become unilateral disarmament. The other side blatantly cheats, then uses our own institutions to prevent us from using any legal means to counter them. This is, I think, Trump's ultimate weakness and why he ultimately lost.

Blogger Bernard Korzeniewicz March 20, 2021 2:49 PM  

Tu put a perspective on the Ukraine question.
1. The 2014 war was the war around Shell's fracking gas mining contranct. Turns out between Lugansk and Doneck cities there is the massive gas basin. The Massive = the EU gas consumption for 40 years. The Shell's gas from Ukraine <=> no place for gas from Russia.
Now, in 2021, that gas bait is dead, prices dropped, the gas bust in the USA shows that fracking is too costly today.
2. Above bait was for Berlin, but in the very beginning of the war Berlin chose the side. When Russians (ok, "rebels") prepared to take the Savur-Mohyla hill Angela Merkel phoned her man in Poland, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk about a tax evasion going in his country. The culprit: the money-man of the Peasants Party, one deputy Jan Bury. The Tusk government collapsed, because Peasants left the ruling coalition, and Bury's friends recalled without warning the Polish mercenary units home. The hole in the Ukrainian line got suddenly filled by advancing rebel forces.
Berlin and Moscow play openly against USA at last since 2014.

Blogger SciVo March 20, 2021 3:10 PM  

Even in 2014, when the Ukrainian Army was much less organized, Russian artillery and EW intervention proved critical. The Ukrainian military has since had more than half a decade of getting 5% of Ukraine’s GDP lavished on it. While Ukraine’s GDP is unimpressive, this is still a high numerator

Does anyone really believe that the money was spent on actual fighting ability? This is the same country that offered Vindman the post of defense minister; either they were serious and their army is a walking fat joke, or they were joking and don't take the army seriously.

Blogger kurt9 March 20, 2021 3:23 PM  

Neoclowns is a good description for them because they really are a bunch of ideological idiots totally out of touch with reality.

Blogger SciVo March 20, 2021 3:26 PM  

Also, that is either a high percentage (5%) or a low denominator (20); to call it a high numerator (5 hundredths) is just pretentious midwittery. Never do that.

Blogger Canadian Warlord March 20, 2021 3:44 PM  

Wars over oil pipelines (Syria) will have more legs than gas pipelines (Ukraine). There's the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline for example, one of those long-term background stories taking decades to emerge. Ukraine's odd position of making bank from old Soviet infrastructure connecting Russia to Europe can only last so long - perhaps this is the sparks we're seeing at the end of that arrangement.

Ultimately those pipelines are too easy to shut down or destroy from the Russian side - there will not be a big conflict over nothing between Ukraine and Russia. There will probably be a differing energy arrangement between Eastern gas reserves and Western markets, ultimately, if it takes 10 years and a couple brush-fire wars. But this will not be 2008 Georgia 2.0 - Putin has shown he's capable of diffusing disastrous situations with surgical use of force (Syria) and not always relying on gigantic unscheduled 48 hour army exercises (Georgia) that only need to be demonstrated once per generation.

Natural gas has been the same price for about a decade now - $5 per thousand cubic feet or something around that. Whenever demand goes up, so does supply - speculation does not float the price up using nonsense like "peak gas." I should know, drove to a lot of gas plants doing construction and later commissioning drives and mccs. The business can be good because of the guaranteed supply clauses and the rush on the projects but ultimately it's not oil. It's the 'safe and steady' half of the oil and gas sector.

Blogger Emmanuel March 20, 2021 4:14 PM  

Unfortunaltely, I think @2 @Stilicho is rght . Our ennemies have nothing to lose in this war, and a lot to win should Russia be wounded. If Russia wants to succeed, thay have to enrich their playbook beyond mere defense.

I am wondering what Mexican artels could to if they had access to ManPADS, satellite imagery and state level CyberForces. Do you think they could make CommieFornia a free NarcoState ?

Blogger Damn Crackers March 20, 2021 4:18 PM  

I can't believe Leo Strauss would have been that stupid to support a provocation of war with Russia, even with his membership in the little-hat club.

Blogger CynicalMan March 20, 2021 5:09 PM  

Any opportunity to sell arms is a win for the politicians who are in the pockets of the manufacturers.

Blogger Cappuccinobear March 20, 2021 7:07 PM  

America won't lose! We've got grit! We went to the hoodilydaddle! I mean Moon! In our Buicks while getting blowjobs! How could we lose to some pinko rice farmers!?

Blogger VFM #7634 March 20, 2021 8:14 PM  

Does anyone really believe that the money was spent on actual fighting ability? This is the same country that offered Vindman the post of defense minister; either they were serious and their army is a walking fat joke, or they were joking and don't take the army seriously.

Russians — Russians! — see Ukraine as hopelessly corrupt. The country is imploding, and nothing will improve until it hits absolute rock-bottom.

Blogger Black Bird March 20, 2021 10:13 PM  

Oh so much at play. The richest man in the world is Mr Putin. He doesn’t want war just a reason to look strong and President of Russia for ever. Biden without a brain will give it to him on a silver platter. The cost will be American soldiers. The big questions will be what other fuse does all of this 🔥 light. If Biden bites then China will also make moves. They have been waiting for a big weak point to appear and Biden is it. This virus is not just a coincidence. But has opened up many options not ever expected. Sit back and watch the idiots screw it all up.
If Trump in the first debate had controlled himself Biden would have done himself in.

Blogger Akulkis March 21, 2021 12:31 AM  

>> Nord Stream 2 goes down, Russia collapses, we loot like it's 1999! Sounds like a workable strategy for the neoclowns.

Russia has no NEED for any imports or exports. While some imports are *desirable* for Russia, whatever it is, they can produce it at home -- Russia has EVERY natural resource used by industry within its own borders. Therefore, cutting off their exports in the hopes that the revenue loss will result in crippling shortages due to lack of imports is naive. Especially since the Russian consumer product manufacturing sector now has an abundance of European goods throughout the country, and they are no longer under the dictates of arbitrary production quotas (in tons, produces too fee units using too much material per unit; by unit count produced too many units but of generally flimsy construction due to stretching production numbers by too much reduction in material per unit).

Blogger Akulkis March 21, 2021 12:37 AM  

>> No doubt the Russians are too dumb to figure out a way to prevent this from coming to pass.

Dude, they're a nation of chess players. If you think they're being taken, you aren't looking 10 moves ahead like they are.

Blogger RadixMalorum March 21, 2021 12:39 AM  

Cappuccinobear wrote:America won't lose! We've got grit! We went to the hoodilydaddle! I mean Moon! In our Buicks while getting blowjobs! How could we lose to some pinko rice farmers!?

I realize you're likely being sarcastic but on the off chance you're not I would like to point to Korea and Vietnam wars where the US did in fact get driven back by pinko rice farmers.

Blogger James Fox Higgins March 21, 2021 12:40 AM  

Revenge of the Nerds (Gammas), writ VERY large.

Blogger allyn71 March 21, 2021 2:30 AM  

Last go around Obama wouldn't send Anti-armor missles to the Ukes. This led to them frequently being enveloped and forced to breakout under fire or be decimated in place. I bet Biden and the MIC will be more than happy to send them this time. This thing is headed to Syria 2.0

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 21, 2021 8:34 AM  

Is it all still really as "simple" as fighting over oil?

Oil is the material cause, or one of them. The final cause is the destruction of Christianity, and then humanity as God created it.

Blogger MidnightSun March 21, 2021 6:33 PM  

Neo-clown Trotskyites have never gotten over his death and will not let go of Russia until America, the current host, is provoked into fighting (their) war. They almost had the world with the success of the Bolshevik Revolution until Madman Uncle Joe Stalin purged them after (they) mercilessly killed the Tzar and family and millions of Christian Russians. Decades of propaganda in the western press has made Russia to look like the enemy but we all know who the real enemy is. Same as it ever was. Add to this they are playing both sides with the CCP to get them involved with whatever evil plan lays on the horizon including the demise of this nation which is currently taking place as our Capitol has been besieged by foreign globalists and nobody has any answers!
I am not an expert in these things so if anyone can add to or correct my summation please feel free to do so.

Blogger SciVo March 21, 2021 6:53 PM  

Oil is energy. Energy gives the capacity to do things. Doing is power.

As long as there are people whose only two moral principles are the Stalinist Who/Whom and the Nietzschean Will to Power, there will be fighting over oil.

Blogger SciVo March 21, 2021 11:38 PM  

@MidnightSun:
Add to this they are playing both sides with the CCP to get them involved with whatever evil plan lays on the horizon including the demise of this nation which is currently taking place as our Capitol has been besieged by foreign globalists and nobody has any answers!
I am not an expert in these things so if anyone can add to or correct my summation please feel free to do so.


I am not an expert either, but winning would just take enough ruthlessness to do what it takes to drive all the "world citizens" off our shores.

Blogger OneWingedShark March 22, 2021 9:46 AM  

Bernard Korzeniewicz wrote:Now, in 2021, that gas bait is dead, prices dropped, the gas bust in the USA shows that fracking is too costly today.
Absolutely by design: they don't want cheap energy or fuel, certainly not for the common-man.
(That's why they've demonized Nuclear Reactors so much.)

Stilicho wrote:How can the neoclowns lose if more Christians get killed regardless of other factors? That's a perennial neoclown lining to every otherwise useless war cloud.
At this point, I think we should also consider the possibility that there's "humiliation rituals" in there, too.

Cappuccinobear wrote:America won't lose! We've got grit! We went to the hoodilydaddle! I mean Moon! In our Buicks while getting blowjobs! How could we lose to some pinko rice farmers!?
If we had real Americans leading us, we could probably win… but if we had real Americans leading us, we wouldn't even be in this fight.

RadixMalorum wrote:Cappuccinobear wrote:America won't lose! We've got grit! We went to the hoodilydaddle! I mean Moon! In our Buicks while getting blowjobs! How could we lose to some pinko rice farmers!?
I realize you're likely being sarcastic but on the off chance you're not I would like to point to Korea and Vietnam wars where the US did in fact get driven back by pinko rice farmers.

Korea: The war where we fought the Chinese wearing Korean uniforms.
Vietnam: The war we only lost because the politicians and news-media were insistent on losing.

SciVo wrote:Oil is energy. Energy gives the capacity to do things. Doing is power.
And THAT is why they do not want cheap energy, and why they killed off high-school shop-class, and why they have such onerous regulatory burdens.
Give the people of the US a Just playing-field, and an honest monetary system, and we'll blow the world's mind with our productiveness.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 22, 2021 3:55 PM  

Emmanuel wrote:I am wondering what Mexican artels could to if they had access to ManPADS, satellite imagery and state level CyberForces. Do you think they could make CommieFornia a free NarcoState ?
Do you think they would need ManPADS and all that? I suspect they're going to accomplish it without.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 22, 2021 3:57 PM  

RadixMalorum wrote:I realize you're likely being sarcastic but on the off chance you're not I would like to point to Korea and Vietnam wars where the US did in fact get driven back by pinko rice farmers.
Our military won most battles, but our politicians surrendered anyway. Put the blame where you will, we lost to pinko rice farmers twice in a row.

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